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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Nationwide reconnaissance of contaminants of emerging concern in source and treated drinking waters of the United States

When chemical or microbial contaminants are assessed for potential effect or possible regulation in ambient and drinking waters, a critical first step is determining if the contaminants occur and if they are at concentrations that may cause human or ecological health concerns. To this end, source and treated drinking water samples from 29 drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) were analyzed as part of a two-phase study to determine whether chemical and microbial constituents, many of which are considered contaminants of emerging concern, were detectable in the waters. Of the 84 chemicals monitored in the 9 Phase I DWTPs, 27 were detected at least once in the source water, and 21 were detected at least once in treated drinking water. In Phase II, which was a broader and more comprehensive assessment, 247 chemical and microbial analytes were measured in 25 DWTPs, with 148 detected at least once in the source water, and 121 detected at least once in the treated drinking water. The frequency of detection was often related to the analyte's contaminant class, as pharmaceuticals and anthropogenic waste indicators tended to be infrequently detected and more easily removed during treatment, while per and polyfluoroalkyl substances and inorganic constituents were both more frequently detected and, overall, more resistant to treatment. The data collected as part of this project will be used to help inform evaluation of unregulated contaminants in surface water, groundwater, and drinking water.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Shifts in microbial community structure and function in surface waters impacted by unconventional oil and gas wastewater revealed by metagenomics

Unconventional oil and gas (UOG) production produces large quantities of wastewater with complex geochemistry and largely uncharacterized impacts on surface waters. In this study, we assessed shifts in microbial community structure and function in sediments and waters upstream and downstream from a UOG wastewater disposal facility. To do this, quantitative PCR for 16S rRNA and antibiotic resistance genes along with metagenomic sequencing were performed. Elevated conductivity and markers of UOG wastewater characterized sites sampled downstream from the disposal facility compared to background sites. Shifts in overall high level functions and microbial community structure were observed between background sites and downstream sediments. Increases in Deltaproteobacteria and Methanomicrobia and decreases in Thaumarchaeota were observed at downstream sites. Genes related to dormancy and sporulation and methanogenic respiration were 18–86 times higher at downstream, impacted sites. The potential for these sediments to serve as reservoirs of antimicrobial resistance was investigated given frequent reports of the use of biocides to control the growth of nuisance bacteria in UOG operations. A shift in resistance profiles downstream of the UOG facility was observed including increases in acr B and mex B genes encoding for multidrug efflux pumps, but not overall abundance of resistance genes. The observed shifts in microbial community structure and potential function indicate changes in respiration, nutrient cycling, and markers of stress in a stream impacted by UOG waste disposal operations.

West Virginia↗
USGS2017

Unconventional oil and gas spills: Materials, volumes, and risks to surface waters in four states of the U.S.

Extraction of oil and gas from unconventional sources, such as shale, has dramatically increased over the past ten years, raising the potential for spills or releases of chemicals, waste materials, and oil and gas. We analyzed spill data associated with unconventional wells from Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota and Pennsylvania from 2005 to 2014, where we defined unconventional wells as horizontally drilled into an unconventional formation. We identified materials spilled by state and for each material we summarized frequency, volumes and spill rates. We evaluated the environmental risk of spills by calculating distance to the nearest stream and compared these distances to existing setback regulations. Finally, we summarized relative importance to drinking water in watersheds where spills occurred. Across all four states, we identified 21,300 unconventional wells and 6622 reported spills. The number of horizontal well bores increased sharply beginning in the late 2000s; spill rates also increased for all states except PA where the rate initially increased, reached a maximum in 2009 and then decreased. Wastewater, crude oil, drilling waste, and hydraulic fracturing fluid were the materials most often spilled; spilled volumes of these materials largely ranged from 100 to 10,000 L. Across all states, the average distance of spills to a stream was highest in New Mexico (1379 m), followed by Colorado (747 m), North Dakota (598 m) and then Pennsylvania (268 m), and 7.0, 13.3, and 20.4% of spills occurred within existing surface water setback regulations of 30.5, 61.0, and 91.4 m, respectively. Pennsylvania spills occurred in watersheds with a higher relative importance to drinking water than the other three states. Results from this study can inform risk assessments by providing improved input parameters on volume and rates of materials spilled, and guide regulations and the management policy of spills.

Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2017

Disturbance automated reference toolset (DART): Assessing patterns in ecological recovery from energy development on the Colorado Plateau

A new disturbance automated reference toolset (DART) was developed to monitor human land surface impacts using soil-type and ecological context. DART identifies reference areas with similar soils, topography, and geology; and compares the disturbance condition to the reference area condition using a quantile-based approach based on a satellite vegetation index. DART was able to represent 26–55% of variation of relative differences in bare ground and 26–41% of variation in total foliar cover when comparing sites with nearby ecological reference areas using the Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI). Assessment of ecological recovery at oil and gas pads on the Colorado Plateau with DART revealed that more than half of well-pads were below the 25th percentile of reference areas. Machine learning trend analysis of poorly recovering well-pads (quantile < 0.23) had out-of-bag error rates between 37 and 40% indicating moderate association with environmental and management variables hypothesized to influence recovery. Well-pads in grasslands (median quantile [MQ] = 13%), blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima ) shrublands (MQ = 18%), arid canyon complexes (MQ = 18%), warmer areas with more summer-dominated precipitation, and state administered areas (MQ = 12%) had low recovery rates. Results showcase the usefulness of DART for assessing discrete surface land disturbances, and highlight the need for more targeted rehabilitation efforts at oil and gas well-pads in the arid southwest US.

Colorado Plateau↗
USGS2017

NDVI, scale invariance and the modifiable areal unit problem: An assessment of vegetation in the Adelaide Parklands

This research addresses the question as to whether or not the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is scale invariant (i.e. constant over spatial aggregation) for pure pixels of urban vegetation. It has been long recognized that there are issues related to the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) pertaining to indices such as NDVI and images at varying spatial resolutions. These issues are relevant to using NDVI values in spatial analyses. We compare two different methods of calculation of a mean NDVI: 1) using pixel values of NDVI within feature/object boundaries and 2) first calculating the mean red and mean near-infrared across all feature pixels and then calculating NDVI. We explore the nature and magnitude of these differences for images taken from two sensors, a 1.24 m resolution WorldView-3 and a 0.1 m resolution digital aerial image. We apply these methods over an urban park located in the Adelaide Parklands of South Australia. We demonstrate that the MAUP is not an issue for calculation of NDVI within a sensor for pure urban vegetation pixels. This may prove useful for future rule-based monitoring of the ecosystem functioning of green infrastructure.

Adelaide Parklands↗
USGS2017

Large decadal-scale changes in uranium and bicarbonate in groundwater of the irrigated western U.S

Samples collected about one decade apart from 1105 wells from across the U.S. were compiled to assess whether uranium concentrations in the arid climate are linked to changing bicarbonate concentrations in the irrigated western U.S. Uranium concentrations in groundwater were high in the arid climate in the western U.S, where uranium sources are abundant. Sixty-four wells (6%) were above the U.S. EPA MCL of 30 μg/L; all but one are in the arid west. Concentrations were low to non-detectable in the humid climate. Large uranium and bicarbonate increases (differences are greater than the uncertainty in concentrations) occur in 109 wells between decade 1 and decade 2. Similarly, large uranium and bicarbonate decreases occur in 76 wells between the two decades. Significantly more wells are concordant (uranium and bicarbonate are both going the same direction) than discordant (uranium and bicarbonate are going opposite directions) (p < 0.001; Chi-square test). The largest percent difference in uranium concentrations occur in wells where uranium is increasing and bicarbonate is also increasing. These large differences occur mostly in the arid climate. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that changing uranium concentrations are linked to changes in bicarbonate in irrigated areas of the western U.S.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Occurrence, temporal variation, and estrogenic burden of five parabens in sewage sludge collected across the United States

Five parabens used as preservatives in pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were measured in sewage sludges collected at 14 U.S. wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) located in nine states. Detected concentration ranges (ng/g, dry weight) and frequencies were as follows: methyl paraben (15.9 to 203.0; 100%), propyl paraben (0.5 to 7.7; 100%), ethyl paraben (< 0.6 to 2.6; 63%), butyl paraben (< 0.4 to 4.3; 42%) and benzyl paraben (< 0.4 to 3.3; 26%). The estrogenicity inherent to the sum of parabens detected in sewage sludge (ranging from 10.1 to 500.1 pg/kg 17 β- estradiol equivalents) was insignificant when compared to the 10 6 -times higher value calculated for natural estrogens reported in the literature to occur in sewage sludge. Temporal monitoring at one WWTP provided insights into temporal and seasonal variations in paraben concentrations. This is the first report on the occurrence of five parabens in sewage sludges from across the U.S., and internationally, the first on temporal variations of paraben levels in sewage sludge. Study results will help to inform the risk assessment of sewage sludge destined for land application (biosolids).

Arizona, Indiana, Florida, Maryland, Montana, New ↗
USGS2017

Evaluating the impact of irrigation on surface water – groundwater interaction and stream temperature in an agricultural watershed

Changes in groundwater discharge to streams caused by irrigation practices can influence stream temperature. Observations along two currently flood-irrigated reaches in the 640-square-kilometer upper Smith River watershed, an important agricultural and recreational fishing area in west-central Montana, showed a downstream temperature decrease resulting from groundwater discharge to the stream. A watershed-scale coupled surface water and groundwater flow model was used to examine changes in streamflow, groundwater discharge to the stream and stream temperature resulting from irrigation practices. The upper Smith River watershed was used to develop the model framework including watershed climate, topography, hydrography, vegetation, soil properties and current irrigation practices. Model results were used to compare watershed streamflow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to the stream for three scenarios: natural, pre-irrigation conditions (PreIrr); current irrigation practices involving mainly stream diversion for flood and sprinkler irrigation (IrrCurrent); and a hypothetical scenario with only groundwater supplying sprinkler irrigation (IrrGW). Irrigation increased groundwater recharge relative to natural PreIrr conditions because not all applied water was removed by crop evapotranspiration. Groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream increased relative to natural PreIrr conditions when the source of irrigation water was mainly stream diversion as in the IrrCurrent scenario. The hypothetical IrrGW scenario, in which groundwater withdrawals were the sole source of irrigation water, resulted in widespread lowering of the water table and associated decreases in groundwater storage and groundwater discharge to the stream. A mixing analysis using model predicted groundwater discharge along the reaches suggests that stream diversion and flood irrigation, represented in the IrrCurrent scenario, has led to cooling of stream temperatures relative to natural PreIrr conditions improving fish thermal habitat. However, the decrease in groundwater discharge in the IrrGW scenario resulting from large-scale groundwater withdrawal for irrigation led to warmer than natural stream temperatures and possible degradation of fish habitat.

Montana↗
USGS2017

Influence of sediment chemistry and sediment toxicity on macroinvertebrate communities across 99 wadable streams of the Midwestern USA

Simultaneous assessment of sediment chemistry, sediment toxicity, and macroinvertebrate communities can provide multiple lines of evidence when investigating relations between sediment contaminants and ecological degradation. These three measures were evaluated at 99 wadable stream sites across 11 states in the Midwestern United States during the summer of 2013 to assess sediment pollution across a large agricultural landscape. This evaluation considers an extensive suite of sediment chemistry totaling 274 analytes (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, organochlorine compounds, polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, trace elements, and current-use pesticides) and a mixture assessment based on the ratios of detected compounds to available effects-based benchmarks. The sediments were tested for toxicity with the amphipod Hyalella azteca (28-d exposure), the midge Chironomus dilutus (10-d), and, at a few sites, with the freshwater mussel Lampsilis siliquoidea (28-d). Sediment concentrations, normalized to organic carbon content, infrequently exceeded benchmarks for aquatic health, which was generally consistent with low rates of observed toxicity. However, the benchmark-based mixture score and the pyrethroid insecticide bifenthrin were significantly related to observed sediment toxicity. The sediment mixture score and bifenthrin were also significant predictors of the upper limits of several univariate measures of the macroinvertebrate community (EPT percent, MMI (Macroinvertebrate Multimetric Index) Score, Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera richness) using quantile regression. Multivariate pattern matching (Mantel-like tests) of macroinvertebrate species per site to identified contaminant metrics and sediment toxicity also indicate that the sediment mixture score and bifenthrin have weak, albeit significant, influence on the observed invertebrate community composition. Together, these three lines of evidence (toxicity tests, univariate metrics, and multivariate community analysis) suggest that elevated contaminant concentrations in sediments, in particular bifenthrin, is limiting macroinvertebrate communities in several of these Midwest streams.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative impact on nitrate predictions. Three-dimensional visualization indicates that nitrate predictions depend on the probability of anoxic conditions and other factors, and that nitrate predictions generally decreased with increasing groundwater age.

California↗
USGS2018

Complex mixtures of dissolved pesticides show potential aquatic toxicity in a synoptic study of Midwestern U.S. streams

Aquatic organisms in streams are exposed to pesticide mixtures that vary in composition over time in response to changes in flow conditions, pesticide inputs to the stream, and pesticide fate and degradation within the stream. To characterize mixtures of dissolved-phase pesticides and degradates in Midwestern streams, a synoptic study was conducted at 100 streams during May–August 2013. In weekly water samples, 94 pesticides and 89 degradates were detected, with a median of 25 compounds detected per sample and 54 detected per site. In a screening-level assessment using aquatic-life benchmarks and the Pesticide Toxicity Index (PTI), potential effects on fish were unlikely in most streams. For invertebrates, potential chronic toxicity was predicted in 53% of streams, punctuated in 12% of streams by acutely toxic exposures. For aquatic plants, acute but likely reversible effects on biomass were predicted in 75% of streams, with potential longer-term effects on plant communities in 9% of streams. Relatively few pesticides in water—atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, imidacloprid, fipronil, organophosphate insecticides, and carbendazim—were predicted to be major contributors to potential toxicity. Agricultural streams had the highest potential for effects on plants, especially in May–June, corresponding to high spring-flush herbicide concentrations. Urban streams had higher detection frequencies and concentrations of insecticides and most fungicides than in agricultural streams, and higher potential for invertebrate toxicity, which peaked during July–August. Toxicity-screening predictions for invertebrates were supported by quantile regressions showing significant associations for the Benthic Invertebrate-PTI and imidacloprid concentrations with invertebrate community metrics for MSQA streams, and by mesocosm toxicity testing with imidacloprid showing effects on invertebrate communities at environmentally relevant concentrations. This study documents the most complex pesticide mixtures yet reported in discrete water samples in the U.S. and, using multiple lines of evidence, predicts that pesticides were potentially toxic to nontarget aquatic life in about half of the sampled streams.

Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnes↗
USGS2017

Rodenticide incidents of exposure and adverse effects on non-raptor birds

Interest in the adverse effects of rodenticides on birds has focused primarily on raptors. However, non-raptor birds are also poisoned (rodenticide exposure resulting in adverse effects including mortality) by rodenticides through consumption of the rodenticide bait and contaminated prey. A literature search for rodenticide incidents (evidence of exposure to a rodenticide, adverse effects, or exposure to placebo baits) involving non-raptor birds returned 641 records spanning the years 1931 to 2016. The incidents included 17 orders, 58 families, and 190 non-raptor bird species. Nineteen anticoagulant and non-anticoagulant rodenticide active ingredients were associated with the incidents. The number of incidents and species detected were compared by surveillance method. An incident was considered to have been reported through passive surveillance if it was voluntarily reported to the authorities whereas the report of an incident found through field work that was conducted with the objective of documenting adverse effects on birds was determined to be from active surveillance. More incidents were reported from passive surveillance than with active surveillance but a significantly greater number of species were detected in proportion to the number of incidents found through active surveillance than with passive surveillance (z = 7.61, p < 0.01). Results suggest that reliance on only one surveillance method can underestimate the number of incidents that have occurred and the number of species that are affected. Although rodenticides are used worldwide, incident records were found from only 15 countries. Therefore, awareness of the breadth of species diversity of non-raptor bird poisonings from rodenticides may increase incident reportings and can strengthen the predictions of harm characterized by risk assessments.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Domestic well locations and populations served in the contiguous U.S.: 1990

We estimate the location and population served by domestic wells in the contiguous United States in two ways: (1) the “Block Group Method” or BGM, uses data from the 1990 census, and (2) the “Road-Enhanced Method” or REM, refines the locations by using a buffer expansion and shrinkage technique along roadways to define areas where domestic wells exist. The fundamental assumption is that houses (and therefore domestic wells) are located near a named road. The results are presented as two nationally-consistent domestic-well population datasets. While both methods can be considered valid, the REM map is more precise in locating domestic wells; the REM map has a smaller amount of spatial bias (Type 1 and Type 2 errors nearly equal vs biased in Type 1), total error (10.9% vs 23.7%), and distance error (2.0 km vs 2.7 km), when comparing the REM and BGM maps to a calibration map in California. However, the BGM map is more inclusive of all potential locations for domestic wells. Independent domestic well datasets from the USGS, and the States of MN, NV, and TX show that the BGM captures about 5 to 10% more wells than the REM. One key difference between the BGM and the REM is the mapping of low density areas. The REM reduces areas mapped as low density by 57%, concentrating populations into denser regions. Therefore, if one is trying to capture all of the potential areas of domestic-well usage, then the BGM map may be more applicable. If location is more imperative, then the REM map is better at identifying areas of the landscape with the highest probability of finding a domestic well. Depending on the purpose of a study, a combination of both maps can be used.

Contiguous United States↗
USGS2018

Increasing chloride in rivers of the conterminous U.S. and linkages to potential corrosivity and lead action level exceedances in drinking water

Corrosion in water-distribution systems is a costly problem and controlling corrosion is a primary focus of efforts to reduce lead (Pb) and copper (Cu) in tap water. High chloride concentrations can increase the tendency of water to cause corrosion in distribution systems. The effects of chloride are also expressed in several indices commonly used to describe the potential corrosivity of water, the chloride-sulfate mass ratio (CSMR) and the Larson Ratio (LR). Elevated CSMR has been linked to the galvanic corrosion of Pb whereas LR is indicative of the corrosivity of water to iron and steel. Despite the known importance of chloride, CSMR, and LR to the potential corrosivity of water, monitoring of seasonal and interannual changes in these parameters is not common among water purveyors. We analyzed long-term trends (1992–2012) and the current status (2010–2015) of chloride, CSMR, and LR in order to investigate the short and long-term temporal variability in potential corrosivity of US streams and rivers. Among all sites in the trend analyses, chloride, CSMR, and LR increased slightly, with median changes of 0.9 mg L − 1 , 0.08, and 0.01, respectively. However, urban-dominated sites had much larger increases, 46.9 mg L − 1 , 2.50, and 0.53, respectively. Median CSMR and LR in urban streams (4.01 and 1.34, respectively) greatly exceeded thresholds found to cause corrosion in water distribution systems (0.5 and 0.3, respectively). Urbanization was strongly correlated with elevated chloride, CSMR, and LR, especially in the most snow-affected areas in the study, which are most likely to use road salt. The probability of Pb action-level exceedances (ALEs) in drinking water facilities increased along with raw surface water CSMR, indicating a statistical connection between surface water chemistry and corrosion in drinking water facilities. Optimal corrosion controlwill require monitoring of critical constituents reflecting the potential corrosivity in surface waters.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2017

Persistent organic pollutants in fat of three species of Pacific pelagic longline caught sea turtles: Accumulation in relation to ingested plastic marine debris

In addition to eating contaminated prey, sea turtles may be exposed to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from ingesting plastic debris that has absorbed these chemicals. Given the limited knowledge about POPs in pelagic sea turtles and how plastic ingestion influences POP exposure, our objectives were to: 1) provide baseline contaminant levels of three species of pelagic Pacific sea turtles; and 2) assess trends of contaminant levels in relation to species, sex, length, body condition and capture location. In addition, we hypothesized that if ingesting plastic is a significant source of POP exposure, then the amount of ingested plastic may be correlated to POP concentrations accumulated in fat. To address our objectives we compared POP concentrations in fat samples to previously described amounts of ingested plastic from the same turtles. Fat samples from 25 Pacific pelagic sea turtles [2 loggerhead ( Caretta caretta ), 6 green ( Chelonia mydas ) and 17 olive ridley ( Lepidochelys olivacea ) turtles] were analyzed for 81 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 20 organochlorine pesticides, and 35 brominated flame-retardants. The olive ridley and loggerhead turtles had higher ΣDDTs (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and metabolites) than ΣPCBs, at a ratio similar to biota measured in the South China Sea and southern California. Green turtles had a ratio close to 1:1. These pelagic turtles had lower POP levels than previously reported in nearshore turtles. POP concentrations were unrelated to the amounts of ingested plastic in olive ridleys, suggesting that their exposure to POPs is mainly through prey. In green turtles, concentrations of ΣPCBs were positively correlated with the number of plastic pieces ingested, but these findings were confounded by covariance with body condition index (BCI). Green turtles with a higher BCI had eaten more plastic and also had higher POPs. Taken together, our findings suggest that sea turtles accumulate most POPs through their prey rather than marine debris.

Science of the Total Environment↗
USGS2018

A detailed risk assessment of shale gas development on headwater streams in the Pennsylvania portion of the Upper Susquehanna River Basin, U.S.A.

The development of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) involves infrastructure development (well pads, roads and pipelines), well drilling and stimulation (hydraulic fracturing), and production; all of which have the potential to affect stream ecosystems. Here, we developed a fine-scaled (1:24,000) catchment-level disturbance intensity index (DII) that included 17 measures of UOG capturing all steps in the development process (infrastructure, water withdrawals, probabilistic spills) that could affect headwater streams (< 200 km 2 in upstream catchment) in the Upper Susquehanna River Basin in Pennsylvania, U.S.A. The DII ranged from 0 (no UOG disturbance) to 100 (the catchment with the highest UOG disturbance in the study area) and it was most sensitive to removal of pipeline cover, road cover and well pad cover metrics. We related this DII to three measures of high quality streams: Pennsylvania State Exceptional Value (EV) streams, Class A brook trout streams and Eastern Brook Trout Joint Venture brook trout patches. Overall only 3.8% of all catchments and 2.7% of EV stream length, 1.9% of Class A streams and 1.2% of patches were classified as having medium to high level DII scores (> 50). Well density, often used as a proxy for development, only correlated strongly with well pad coverage and produced materials, and therefore may miss potential effects associated with roads and pipelines, water withdrawals and spills. When analyzed with a future development scenario, 91.1% of EV stream length, 68.7% of Class A streams and 80.0% of patches were in catchments with a moderate to high probability of development. Our method incorporated the cumulative effects of UOG on streams and can be used to identify catchments and reaches at risk to existing stressors or future development.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2018

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

Chesapeake Bay↗
USGS2017

Estimating virus occurrence using Bayesian modeling in multiple drinking water systems of the United States

Drinking water treatment plants rely on purification of contaminated source waters to provide communities with potable water. One group of possible contaminants are enteric viruses. Measurement of viral quantities in environmental water systems are often performed using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or quantitative PCR (qPCR). However, true values may be underestimated due to challenges involved in a multi-step viral concentration process and due to PCR inhibition. In this study, water samples were concentrated from 25 drinking water treatment plants (DWTPs) across the US to study the occurrence of enteric viruses in source water and removal after treatment. The five different types of viruses studied were adenovirus, norovirus GI, norovirus GII, enterovirus, and polyomavirus. Quantitative PCR was performed on all samples to determine presence or absence of these viruses in each sample. Ten DWTPs showed presence of one or more viruses in source water, with four DWTPs having treated drinking water testing positive. Furthermore, PCR inhibition was assessed for each sample using an exogenous amplification control, which indicated that all of the DWTP samples, including source and treated water samples, had some level of inhibition, confirming that inhibition plays an important role in PCR based assessments of environmental samples. PCR inhibition measurements, viral recovery, and other assessments were incorporated into a Bayesian model to more accurately determine viral load in both source and treated water. Results of the Bayesian model indicated that viruses are present in source water and treated water. By using a Bayesian framework that incorporates inhibition, as well as many other parameters that affect viral detection, this study offers an approach for more accurately estimating the occurrence of viral pathogens in environmental waters.

Science of the Total Environment↗