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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

USGS2014

Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets ( 14 C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Reconstructing precipitation in the tropical South Pacific from dinosterol 2H/1H ratios in lake sediment

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the Southern Hemisphere’s largest precipitation feature supplying freshwater to 11 million people. Despite its significance, little is known about the location and intensity of SPCZ precipitation prior to instrumental records, hindering attempts to predict precipitation changes in a warming world. Here we use sedimentary molecular fossils to establish a tool for extending the historical record of precipitation. Freshwater lake sediments and water samples were collected from 30 lakes that span a 4.6 mm d −1 range in precipitation rates from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). δ 2 H lakewater values from 29 lakes ranged from −29 to +23‰ and were inversely correlated ( r = −0.51, p < 0.001) with precipitation rates, likely due to the combination of the amount of precipitation plus evaporation. δ 2 H values of the dinoflagellate sterol dinosterol in surficial sediments from 21 lakes ranged from −316‰ in the Solomon Islands to −245‰ in French Polynesia. These δ 2 H dinosterol values were significantly correlated ( r = 0.71, p < 0.001) with δ 2 H lakewater and inversely correlated ( r = −0.77, p < 0.001) with mean annual precipitation rates with a sensitivity of −12.1 ± 2.6‰ (mm d −1 ) −1 . Fractionation between dinosterol and lake water (ε dinosterol/lakewater ) decreased at the driest lake sites ( r = − 0.70, p < 0.001). The empirical relationship between δ 2 H dinosterol and GPCP rainfall, although indirect, provides a means of quantitatively reconstructing past precipitation in the SPCZ region with an uncertainty of less than 3.1 mm d −1 , which compares favorably to the 1.5 mm d −1 uncertainty for the satellite-gauge based GPCP precipitation data.

Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta↗

USGS2018

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries‐long blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on mid‐latitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2003

Sub-ice volcanoes and ancient oceans/lakes: A Martian challenge

New instruments on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft began providing accurate, high-resolution image and topography data from the planet in 1997. Though data from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) are consistent with hypotheses that suggest large standing bodies of water/ice in the northern lowlands in the planet's past history, Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images acquired to test these hypotheses have provided negative or ambiguous results. In the absence of classic coastal features to test the paleo-ocean hypothesis, other indicators need to be examined. Tuyas and hyaloclastic ridges are subice volcanoes of unique appearance that form in ponded water conditions on Earth. Features with similar characteristics occur on Mars. MOLA analyses of these Martian features provide estimates of the height of putative ice/water columns at the edge of the Utopia Planitia basin and within Ophir Chasma of Valles Marineris, and support the hypotheses of a northern ocean on Mars. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2011

From deposition to erosion: Spatial and temporal variability of sediment sources, storage, and transport in a small agricultural watershed

The spatial and temporal variability of sediment sources, storage, and transport were investigated in a small agricultural watershed draining the Coast Ranges and Sacramento Valley in central California. Results of field, laboratory, and historical data analysis in the Willow Slough fluvial system document changes that transformed a transport-limited depositional system to an effective erosion and transport system, despite a large sediment supply. These changes were caused by a combination of factors: (i) an increase in transport capacity, and (ii) hydrologic alteration. Alteration of the riparian zone and drainage network pattern during the past ~ 150 years included a twofold increase in straightened channel segments along with a baselevel change from excavation that increased slope, and increased sediment transport capacity by ~ 7%. Hydrologic alteration from irrigation water contributions also increased transport capacity, by extending the period with potential for sediment transport and erosion by ~ 6 months/year. Field measurements document Quaternary Alluvium as a modern source of fine sediment with grain size distributions characterized by 5 to 40% fine material. About 60% of an upland and 30% of a lowland study reach incised into this deposit exhibit bank erosion. During this study, the wet 2006 and relatively dry 2007 water years exhibited a range of total annual suspended sediment load spanning two orders of magnitude: ~ 108,500 kg/km 2 /year during 2006 and 5,950 kg/km 2 /year during 2007, only 5% of that during the previous year. Regional implications of this work are illustrated by the potential for a small tributary such as Willow Slough to contribute sediment – whereas large dams limit sediment supply from larger tributaries – to the Sacramento River and San Francisco Bay Delta and Estuary. This work is relevant to lowland agricultural river–floodplain systems globally in efforts to restore aquatic and riparian functions and where water quality management includes reducing fine sediment contributions that can couple with other pollutants.

California↗

USGS2011

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2005

An updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions: Reassessing the correlation with ancient rifts

We present an updated global earthquake catalogue for stable continental regions (SCRs; i.e. intraplate earthquakes) that is available on the Internet. Our database contains information on location, magnitude, seismic moment and focal mechanisms for over 1300 M (moment magnitude) ≥ 4.5 historic and instrumentally recorded crustal events. Using this updated earthquake database in combination with a recently published global catalogue of rifts, we assess the correlation of intraplate seismicity with ancient rifts on a global scale. Each tectonic event is put into one of five categories based on location: (i) interior rifts/taphrogens, (ii) rifted continental margins, (iii) non-rifted crust, (iv) possible interior rifts and (v) possible rifted margins. We find that approximately 27 per cent of all events are classified as interior rifts (i), 25 per cent are rifted continental margins (ii), 36 per cent are within non-rifted crust (iii) and 12 per cent (iv and v) remain uncertain. Thus, over half (52 per cent) of all events are associated with rifted crust, although within the continental interiors (i.e. away from continental margins), non-rifted crust has experienced more earthquakes than interior rifts. No major change in distribution is found if only large (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes are considered. The largest events (M ≥ 7.0) however, have occurred predominantly within rifts (50 per cent) and continental margins (43 per cent). Intraplate seismicity is not distributed evenly. Instead several zones of concentrated seismicity seem to exist. This is especially true for interior rifts/taphrogens, where a total of only 12 regions are responsible for 74 per cent of all events and as much as 98 per cent of all seismic moment released in that category. Of the four rifts/taphrogens that have experienced the largest earthquakes, seismicity within the Kutch rift, India, and the East China rift system, may be controlled by diffuse plate boundary deformation more than by the presence of the ancient rifts themselves. The St. Lawrence depression, Canada, besides being an ancient rift, is also the site of a major collisional suture. Thus only at the Reelfoot rift (New Madrid seismic zone, NMSZ, USA), is the presence of features associated with rifting itself the sole candidate for causing seismicity. Our results suggest that on a global scale, the correlation of seismicity within SCRs and ancient rifts has been overestimated in the past. Because the majority of models used to explain intraplate seismicity have focused on seismicity within rifts, we conclude that a shift in attention more towards non-rifted as well as rifted crust is in order.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2025

The stratigraphic record of the mid-Piacenzian warm period on the Atlantic Coastal Plain

Anthropogenic climate change is an existential threat to our planet, impacting everything from the delicate balance of ecosystems to the availability of vital resources. Coastal regions, particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, are experiencing increased erosion, flooding, and habitat loss. Understanding how coastal regions responded to past warming is crucial for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. One past interval commonly used to examine and compare with climate model projections of near future conditions is the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (MPWP) which occurred between*3.3 and 3.0 Ma. Here we review the stratigraphy of Atlantic Coastal Plain (ACP) sediments to determine the stratigraphic position of the MPWP by evaluating ages based upon existing and new planktic foraminifer occurrence data calibrated to the current geologic time scale (GTS2020). We identify geologic formations representing pre-, syn-, and post-MPWP environments. The Sunken Meadow Member of the Yorktown Formation in Virginia and North Carolina and the Wabasso beds in the subsurface of Georgia and Florida both fall within Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL1 and represent pre-MPWP Pliocene deposits. Parts of the Yorktown Formation in southeastern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the Duplin Formation in North Carolina and South Carolina, and the Raysor Formation in South Carolina and Georgia, fall within Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL3 and were deposited following a major regression associated with a global drop in sea level during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 and represent syn-MPWP deposits. Representing the immediately post-MPWP climate conditions (Planktic Foraminiferal Zone PL5) are the Chowan River, Bear Bluff, and Cypresshead Formations. This work provides a record of the MPWP from Georgia to Virginia and provides a stratigraphic framework within which the impacts of a profound global warming on the east coast of the United States can be assessed.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2023

Towards vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all: Learning from the last 30 years to inform the next 30 years

A common goal among fisheries science professionals, stakeholders, and rights holders is to ensure the persistence and resilience of vibrant fish populations and sustainable, equitable fisheries in diverse aquatic ecosystems, from small headwater streams to offshore pelagic waters. Achieving this goal requires a complex intersection of science and management, and a recognition of the interconnections among people, place, and fish that govern these tightly coupled socioecological and sociotechnical systems. The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) convenes every four years and provides a unique global forum to debate and discuss threats, issues, and opportunities facing fish populations and fisheries. The 2021 WFC meeting, hosted remotely in Adelaide, Australia, marked the 30th year since the first meeting was held in Athens, Greece, and provided an opportunity to reflect on progress made in the past 30 years and provide guidance for the future. We assembled a diverse team of individuals involved with the Adelaide WFC and reflected on the major challenges that faced fish and fisheries over the past 30 years, discussed progress toward overcoming those challenges, and then used themes that emerged during the Congress to identify issues and opportunities to improve sustainability in the world's fisheries for the next 30 years. Key future needs and opportunities identified include: rethinking fisheries management systems and modelling approaches, modernizing and integrating assessment and information systems, being responsive and flexible in addressing persistent and emerging threats to fish and fisheries, mainstreaming the human dimension of fisheries, rethinking governance, policy and compliance, and achieving equity and inclusion in fisheries. We also identified a number of cross-cutting themes including better understanding the role of fish as nutrition in a hungry world, adapting to climate change, embracing transdisciplinarity, respecting Indigenous knowledge systems, thinking ahead with foresight science, and working together across scales. By reflecting on the past and thinking about the future, we aim to provide guidance for achieving our mutual goal of sustaining vibrant fish populations and sustainable fisheries that benefit all. We hope that this prospective thinking can serve as a guide to (i) assess progress towards achieving this lofty goal and (ii) refine our path with input from new and emerging voices and approaches in fisheries science, management, and stewardship.

Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries↗

USGS2014

The geochemistry of deep-sea coral skeletons: a review of vital effects and applications for palaeoceanography

Deep-sea corals were discovered over a century ago, but it is only over recent years that focused efforts have been made to explore the history of the oceans using the geochemistry of their skeletal remains. They offer a promising archive of past oceanic environments given their global distribution, layered growth patterns, longevity and preservation as well as our ability to date them using radiometric techniques. This paper provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art in terms of geochemical approaches to using deep-sea coral skeletons to explore the history of the ocean. Deep-sea coral skeletons have a wide array of morphologies (e.g. solitary cup corals, branching colonial corals) and materials (calcite, aragonite and proteins). As such their biomineralization strategies are diverse, leading to complex geochemistry within coral skeletons. Notwithstanding these complications, progress has been made on developing methods for reconstructing the oceanographic environment in the past using trace elements and isotopic methods. Promising approaches within certain coral groups include clumped isotopes and Mg/Li for temperature reconstructions, boron isotopes and radiocarbon for carbon cycling, εNd, and radiocarbon for circulation studies and δ 15 N, P/Ca and Ba/Ca for nutrient tracer studies. Likewise there is now a range of techniques for dating deep-sea corals skeletons (e.g. U-series, radiocarbon), and determining their growth rates (e.g. radiocarbon and 210 Pb). Dating studies on historic coral populations in the Atlantic, Southern Ocean and Pacific point to climate and environmental changes being dominant controls on coral populations over millennial and orbital timescales. This paper provides a review of a range of successes and promising approaches. It also highlights areas in which further research would likely provide new insights into biomineralization, palaeoceanography and distribution of past coral populations.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2010

Pliocene climate

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Stratigraphy↗

USGS2011

A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by ~40° longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55°E–140°W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980–2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the ‘long-rains’ season of March–June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more ‘El Niño-like’ conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2024

Sensitivity testing of marine turbidite age estimates along the Cascadia subduction zone

9 earthquakes ruptured the full Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in the past 10 kyr, a hypothesis that relies on concurrent turbidite deposition generated from seismogenic strong ground motion along the ∼1100 km margin. Correlation of marine turbidite deposits is based on petrophysical characteristics and radiocarbon geochronology, the latter of which relies on a series of age corrections and calibrations for marine radiocarbon age and sedimentological parameters. In this work, I isolate several key variables in turbidite age assessment and systematically test how previous assumptions and new calibration curves affect estimated ages, and thus whether geochronologic analyses independently support coeval turbidite deposition. For radiocarbon age calibration, I test the impact of (1) updating global marine reservoir age corrections; (2) updating local marine reservoir age estimates; and (3) selectively applied marine reservoir age excursions. From the calibrated radiocarbon ages, I calculate turbidite age and uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach with a broad range of sedimentation rates and substratal erosion. By simply updating the global marine radiocarbon calibration, individual radiocarbon ages differ from published estimates by several hundred years. Updates to the local reservoir age corrections are minimal because existing data remain limited yet have potential for great impact on turbidite ages. Of the sedimentological parameters tested, sedimentation rate has the largest impact on estimated turbidite age, with individual ages changing up to 500 yr from published estimates. For radiocarbon samples of turbidites previously inferred to correlate, the individual ages typically show increased scatter and overall uncertainty, even for models that only update the global marine reservoir calibration. These results highlight the major age uncertainty associated with current coseismic turbidite age analyses in Cascadia and how independent constraints on local reservoir corrections and sedimentation rate are critical for accurate turbidite age estimates in the Pacific Northwest.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2013

Mangrove expansion and saltmarsh decline at mangrove poleward limits

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the US Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province. In south-eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the pole-ward extension of temperature thresholds co-incident with sea-level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗

USGS1997

The physics of debris flows

Recent advances in theory and experimentation motivate a thorough reassessment of the physics of debris flows. Analyses of flows of dry, granular solids and solid-fluid mixtures provide a foundation for a comprehensive debris flow theory, and experiments provide data that reveal the strengths and limitations of theoretical models. Both debris flow materials and dry granular materials can sustain shear stresses while remaining static; both can deform in a slow, tranquil mode characterized by enduring, frictional grain contacts; and both can flow in a more rapid, agitated mode characterized by brief, inelastic grain collisions. In debris flows, however, pore fluid that is highly viscous and nearly incompressible, composed of water with suspended silt and clay, can strongly mediate intergranular friction and collisions. Grain friction, grain collisions, and viscous fluid flow may transfer significant momentum simultaneously. Both the vibrational kinetic energy of solid grains (measured by a quantity termed the granular temperature) and the pressure of the intervening pore fluid facilitate motion of grains past one another, thereby enhancing debris flow mobility. Granular temperature arises from conversion of flow translational energy to grain vibrational energy, a process that depends on shear rates, grain properties, boundary conditions, and the ambient fluid viscosity and pressure. Pore fluid pressures that exceed static equilibrium pressures result from local or global debris contraction. Like larger, natural debris flows, experimental debris flows of ???10 m3 of poorly sorted, water-saturated sediment invariably move as an unsteady surge or series of surges. Measurements at the base of experimental flows show that coarse-grained surge fronts have little or no pore fluid pressure. In contrast, finer-grained, thoroughly saturated debris behind surge fronts is nearly liquefied by high pore pressure, which persists owing to the great compressibility and moderate permeability of the debris. Realistic models of debris flows therefore require equations that simulate inertial motion of surges in which high-resistance fronts dominated by solid forces impede the motion of low-resistance tails more strongly influenced by fluid forces. Furthermore, because debris flows characteristically originate as nearly rigid sediment masses, transform at least partly to liquefied flows, and then transform again to nearly rigid deposits, acceptable models must simulate an evolution of material behavior without invoking preternatural changes in material properties. A simple model that satisfies most of these criteria uses depth-averaged equations of motion patterned after those of the Savage-Hutter theory for gravity-driven flow of dry granular masses but generalized to include the effects of viscous pore fluid with varying pressure. These equations can describe a spectrum of debris flow behaviors intermediate between those of wet rock avalanches and sediment-laden water floods. With appropriate pore pressure distributions the equations yield numerical solutions that successfully predict unsteady, nonuniform motion of experimental debris flows.

Reviews of Geophysics↗

USGS1998

Paleoclimate simulations for North America over the past 21,000 years: Features of the simulated climate and comparisons with paleoenvironmental data

Maps of upper-level and surface winds and of surface temperature and precipitation illustrate the results of a sequence of global paleoclimatic simulations spanning the past 21,000 yr for North America. We review (a) the large-scale features of circulation, temperature, and precipitation that appear in the simulations from the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM 1), (b) the implications of the simulated climate for the past continental-scale distributions of three plant taxa ( Picea spp., Pseudotsuga menziesii , and Artemisia tridentata ), which are broadly representative of the vegetation across the continent, and (c) the potential explanations in terms of atmospheric circulation or surface energy- and water-balance processes for mismatches between the simulations and observations. Most of the broad-scale features of previous paleoclimatic simulations with the NCAR CCM 0 for North America are present in the current simulations. Many of the elements of a conceptual model (based on previous climate simulations) that describes the controls of paleoclimatic variations across North America during the past 21,000 yr are found in simulations reviewed here. These include (1) displacement of the jet stream by the Laurentide Ice Sheet to the south of its present position in both winter and summer, (2) generation of a ‘glacial anticyclone’ over the ice sheet at the LGM, and the consequent induction of large-scale sinking motions induced over eastern North America, (3) changes in the strength of surface atmospheric circulation features through time, including weakening of the Aleutian low in winter, and strengthening of the eastern Pacific and Bermuda high-pressure systems in summer as the ice sheet decreased in size, (4) development of a ‘heat low’ at the surface and a strengthened ridge in the upper-atmosphere over the continent at the time of the maximum summer insolation anomaly, (5) increases in summer temperature earlier in regions remote from the ice sheet (these increases appear earlier in the present (CCM 1) simulations than in the previous (CCM 0) ones, however), and (6) continuation of negative winter temperature anomalies into the middle Holocene. In general, simulated surface conditions that are discordant with paleoenvironmental observations can be attributed to the simulation of particular atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. those that suppress precipitation or advect warm air into a region), with these mismatches amplified in Beringia and the southeastern United States by surface energy- and water-balance processes.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2025

The conundrum of taxonomic uniformitarianism in planktic foraminifera

Planktic foraminiferal species distributions in the modern ocean track environmental features like sea surface temperature (SST). Species shift their distributions as the marine environment changes, providing an analogue for past behaviour. Stationarity of species' ecological tolerances is therefore a first-order assumption of all palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based upon modern analogue methods. In this paper we test the hypothesis that planktic foraminifer species temperature preferences did not change between the Late Pliocene and present, using a dataset which contains faunal abundance data and alkenone palaeotemperature data from the same samples. Our dataset includes 463 samples from 29 localities. Pliocene relative abundances of four taxa ( Globigerina bulloides , Globigerinita glutinata , Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Neogloboquadrina incompta ) are compared to SST estimates of the same age derived using the alkenone unsaturation ratio ( U K ' 37 ) palaeothermometer. Core-top abundances of the same taxa were compared to pre-industrial SST. Our Pliocene data are generally concordant with previous work. Pliocene SST responses and those of the pre-industrial are similar, supporting the hypothesis that temperature preferences of planktic foraminifera have been relatively stable since the Late Pliocene. This documentation of stationarity of planktic foraminiferal species' temperature tolerances is helpful in identifying situations where environmental variables other than temperature (e.g. salinity or productivity) exhibit a first-order control on faunal diversity. Our results support the notion of taxonomic uniformitarianism and therefore provide additional confidence in using planktic foraminifera to evaluate both regional and global climate change.

Palaeontology↗

USGS2023

Carbon sequestration and subsidence reversal in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Bay: Management opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation

The aquatic landscapes of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter, the Delta) and Suisun Bay represent both a significant past and future soil carbon stock. Historical alterations of hydrologic flows have led to depletion of soil carbon stocks via emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and loss of elevation as a result of subsidence. Optimizing ecosystem hydrology in the Delta and Suisun Bay could both reduce and reverse subsidence while also providing significant opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs)—notably CO2, methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2O)—contribute to global warming at different rates and intensities, requiring GHG accounting and modeling to assess the relative benefits of management options. Decades of data collection, model building, and map development suggest that past and current management actions have both caused—and can mitigate—losses of soil carbon. We review here the magnitude of potential GHG offsets, management options that may be achievable, and trade-offs of carbon storage under different land management. Using a land-use/land-cover framework to assess these management options, we describe the potential of three interventions (impoundment to reverse subsidence, agricultural management, and tidal reintroduction and/or maintained connectivity), both in acreage and radiative balance to clarify their relative influence on the region’s GHG balance today and in relation to its millennial history. From floodplains to farming to floating aquatic vegetation, we find specific scalable strategies to manage hydrology that can alter regional GHG balance. Preservation of soil carbon stocks and restoration of net atmospheric CO2 fluxes into soils are the primary route to net negative emissions in the Delta and Suisun Bay, with CH4 emission management occurring in a supporting role. Over a 40-year horizon of climate-mitigation markets, the resilience of different aquatic habitats introduces the most uncertainty, from expected and unexpected hydrologic changes associated with land, ocean, and operational water flows.

California↗