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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS1985

Environmental systems and management activities on the Kennedy Space Center, Merritt Island, Florida: results of a modeling workshop

In the early 1960's, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began purchasing 140,000 acres on Merritt Island, Florida, in order to develop a center for space exploration. Most of this land was acquired to provide a safety and security buffer around NASA facilities. NASA, as the managing agency for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is responsible for preventing or controlling environmental pollution from the Federal facilities and activities at the Space Center and is committed to use all practicable means to protect and enhance the quality of the surrounding environment. The Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge was established in 1963 when management authority for undeveloped lands at KSC was transferred to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In addition to manage for 11 Federally-listed threatened and endangered species and other resident and migratory fish and wildlife populations, the Refuge has comanagement responsibility for 19,000 acres of mosquito control impoundments and 2,500 acres of citrus groves. The Canaveral National Seashore was developed in 1975 when management of a portion of the coastal lands was transferred from NASA to the National Park Service. This multiagency jurisdiction on Merritt Island has resulted in a complex management environment. The modeling workshop described in this report was conducted May 21-25, 1984, at the Kennedy Space Center to: (1) enhance communication among the agencies with management responsibilities on Merritt Island; (2) integrate available information concerning the development, management, and ecology of Merritt Island; and (3) identify key research and monitoring needs associated with the management and use of the island's resources. The workshop was structured around the formulation of a model that would simulate primary management and use activities on Merritt Island and their effects on upland, impoundment, and estuarine vegetation and associated wildlife. The simulation model is composed of four connected submodels. The Uplands submodel calculates changes in acres and structural components of vegetation communities resulting from succession, fire, facilities development, and shuttle launch depositions, as well as the quantity and quality of surface runoff and aquifer input to an impoundment and an estuary. The Impoundment submodel next determines water quality and quantity and changes in vegetation resulting from water level manipulation and prescribed burning. The Estuary submodel than determines water quality parameters and acres of seagrass beds. Finally, the Wildlife submodel calculates habitat suitability indices for key species of interest, based on vegetation conditions in the uplands and impoundments and on several hydrologic parameters. The model represents a hypothetical management unit with 2,500 acres of uplands, a 600-acre impoundment, and a 1,500-acre section of estuary. Two management scenarios were run to analyze model behavior. The scenarios differ in the frequency of shuttle launches and prescribed burning, the extent of facilities development, the amount of land disposed waste material applied, and the nature and timing of impoundment water level control. Early in a model development project, the process of building the model is usually of greater benefit than the model itself. The model building process stimulates interaction among agencies, assists in integrating existing information, and helps identify research needs. These benefits usually accrue even in the absence of real predictive power in the resulting model. Open communication occurs among the Federal, State, and local agencies involved with activities on Merritt Island and the agencies have a cooperative working relationship. The workshop provided an opportunity for all of these agencies to meet at one time and have focused discussions on the key environmental and multiagency resource management issues. The workshop framework helped to integrate information and assumptions from a number of disciplines and agencies. This integration occurred in the computer simulation model and among workshop participants as submodel linkages were developed and scenario results discussed. A number of research needs were identified at the workshop during the model building and testing exercises and associated discussions. These needs were based on the informed judgement of researchers and managers familiar with Merritt Island or similar areas, rather than on a comprehensive literature review of sensitivity analysis of the preliminary model developed at the workshop. Some of the needs can be addressed by interpreting the results of completed studies from similar geographic areas as they relate to Merritt Island, while other will require additional research studies on Merritt Island. Major research needs associated with the Upland submodel include behavior of the near-surface aquifer, factors limiting slash pine regeneration, frequency and effects of natural fire on various cover types, cumulative effects of shuttle launches, and fate in upland soils of nitrogen and phosphorous from land applied waste material. Key Impoundment submodel needs include documentation of vegetation changes in response to altered water depth, salinity, and nutrient concentrations and better specification of the functional characteristics of impoundments as chemical filters. Important information gaps identified in the Estuary submodel include a more complete analysis of factors contributing to phytoplankton abundance, evaluation of sources of turbidity other than phytoplankton, and identification and quantification of factors limiting seagrass distribution. Primary research needs associated with the Wildlife submodel include a survey of breeding habitat, production data, and harvest data for mottled ducks; data on the emigration and immigration of juvenile mullet (and other transient fish) in the impoundment; the contribution of various seagrasses to habitat requirements of sea trout; and the effects of dissolved oxygen on survival of juvenile sea trout. Ideally, the modeling workshop process is iterative in nature. Periods between workshops are used for research, data collection, and model refinement. Each workshop integrates information collected since the last workshop and produces a more credible model that is more useful in evaluating management alternatives. Participants felt that continued application of this process would help provide ongoing integration and communication among agencies and would allow each agency's planning and management activities to be viewed within the context of an overall assessment.

Report↗
USGS2018

Candidate products for operational earthquake forecasting illustrated using the HayWired planning scenario, including one very quick (and not‐so‐dirty) hazard‐map option

In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an M "> M 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some background level of hazard or risk, we emphasize that probability gains (the ratio of short‐term to long‐term‐average estimates) might be of particular interest to users. We also illustrate how such gains are highly sensitive to forecast duration and latency, with the latter representing how long it takes to generate the forecast and/or to take action. The influence of fault‐based information, which has traditionally been ignored in OEF, is also evaluated using the newly developed the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) model. We find that the inclusion of faults only makes a difference for hazard and risk metrics that are dominated by large‐event likelihoods. We also show how the ShakeMap of a mainshock represents a decent estimate of the ground motions that have a 6% chance of being exceeded due to aftershocks in the week that follows. The ultimate value of these types of OEF products can only be determined in the context of specific uses, and because these vary widely, institutions responsible for providing OEF products will depend heavily on user feedback, especially when making resource‐allocation decisions.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Timescale methods for simplifying, understanding and modeling biophysical and water quality processes in coastal aquatic ecosystems: A review

In this article, we describe the use of diagnostic timescales as simple tools for illuminating how aquatic ecosystems work, with a focus on coastal systems such as estuaries, lagoons, tidal rivers, reefs, deltas, gulfs, and continental shelves. Intending this as a tutorial as well as a review, we discuss relevant fundamental concepts (e.g., Lagrangian and Eulerian perspectives and methods, parcels, particles, and tracers), and describe many of the most commonly used diagnostic timescales and definitions. Citing field-based, model-based, and simple algebraic methods, we describe how physical timescales (e.g., residence time, flushing time, age, transit time) and biogeochemical timescales (e.g., for growth, decay, uptake, turnover, or consumption) are estimated and implemented (sometimes together) to illuminate coupled physical-biogeochemical systems. Multiple application examples are then provided to demonstrate how timescales have proven useful in simplifying, understanding, and modeling complex coastal aquatic systems. We discuss timescales from the perspective of “holism”, the degree of process richness incorporated into them, and the value of clarity in defining timescales used and in describing how they were estimated. Our objective is to provide context, new applications and methodological ideas and, for those new to timescale methods, a starting place for implementing them in their own work.

Water↗
USGS2006

Importance of wetland landscape structure to shorebirds wintering in an agricultural valley

Only recently has the influence of landscape structure on habitat use been a research focus in wetland systems. During non-breeding periods when food can be locally limited, wetland spatial pattern across a landscape may be of great importance in determining wetland use. We studied the influence of landscape structure on abundances of wintering Dunlin (Calidris alpina) and Killdeer (Charadrius vociferus) observed on wetlands in the agricultural Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA, during two winters (1999a??2000, 2000a??2001) of differing rainfall. We examined (1) shorebird use within a sample of 100 km2 regions differing in landscape structure (hectares of shorebird habitat [wet, unvegetated]) and (2) use of sites differing in landscape context (area of shorebird habitat within a species-defined radius). For use of sites, we also assessed the influence of two local characteristics: percent of soil exposed and area of wet habitat. We analyzed data using linear regression and information-theoretic modeling. During the dry winter (2000a??2001), Dunlin were attracted to regions with more wetland habitat and their abundances at sites increased with greater area of shorebird habitat within both the site and the surrounding landscape. In contrast, Dunlin abundances at sites were related to availability of habitat at only a local scale during the wet winter (1999a??2000). Regional habitat availability was of little importance in predicting Killdeer distributions, and Killdeer site use appeared unrelated to habitat distributions at both landscape and local scales. Results suggest prioritizing sites for conservation that are located in areas with high wetland coverage.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2017

Modeling the long-term effects of introduced herbivores on the spread of an invasive tree

Context Melaleuca quinquenervia (Cav.) Blake (hereafter melaleuca) is an invasive tree from Australia that has spread over the freshwater ecosystems of southern Florida, displacing native vegetation, thus threatening native biodiversity. Suppression of melaleuca appears to be progressing through the introduction of insect species, the weevil, Oxiops vitiosa , and the psyllid, Boreioglycaspis melaleucae . Objective To improve understanding of the possible effects of herbivory on the landscape dynamics of melaleuca in native southern Florida plant communities. Methods We projected likely future changes in plant communities using the individual based modeling platform, JABOWA-II, by simulating successional processes occurring in two types of southern Florida habitat, cypress swamp and bay swamp, occupied by native species and melaleuca, with the impact of insect herbivores. Results Computer simulations show melaleuca invasion leads to decreases in density and basal area of native species, but herbivory would effectively control melaleuca to low levels, resulting in a recovery of native species. When herbivory was modeled on pure melaleuca stands, it was more effective in stands with initially larger-sized melaleuca. Although the simulated herbivory did not eliminate melaleuca, it decreased its presence dramatically in all cases, supporting the long-term effectiveness of herbivory in controlling melaleuca invasion. Conclusions The results provide three conclusions relevant to management: (1) The introduction of insect herbivory that has been applied to melaleuca appears sufficient to suppress melaleuca over the long term, (2) dominant native species may recover in about 50 years, and (3) regrowth of native species will further suppress melaleuca through competition.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2018

Context-dependent interactions and the regulation of species richness in freshwater fish

Species richness is regulated by a complex network of scale-dependent processes. This complexity can obscure the influence of limiting species interactions, making it difficult to determine if abiotic or biotic drivers are more predominant regulators of richness. Using integrative modeling of freshwater fish richness from 721 lakes along an 11 o latitudinal gradient, we find negative interactions to be a relatively minor independent predictor of species richness in lakes despite the widespread presence of predators. Instead, interaction effects, when detectable among major functional groups and 231 species pairs, were strong, often positive, but contextually dependent on environment. These results are consistent with the idea that negative interactions internally structure lake communities but do not consistently ‘scale-up’ to regulate richness independently of the environment. The importance of environment for interaction outcomes and its role in the regulation of species richness highlights the potential sensitivity of fish communities to the environmental changes affecting lakes globally.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2020

Evaluating stereo DTM quality at Jezero Crater, Mars with HRSC, CTX, and HiRISE images

We have used a high-precision, high-resolution digital terrain model (DTM) of the NASA Mars 2020 rover Perseverance landing site in Jezero crater based on mosaicked images from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (MRO HiRISE) camera as a reference dataset to evaluate DTMs based on Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera (MEX HRSC) and MRO Context camera (CTX) images. Results are consistent with our earlier HRSC-HiRISE comparisons at the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity landing site in Gale crater, confirming that those results were not compromised by the small area compared and potential problems with spatial registration. Specifically, height errors are on the order of half a pixel and correspond to an image matching error of 0.2–0.3 pixel but estimates of horizontal resolution are 10–20 pixels. Products from the HRSC team pipeline at DLR are smoother but more precise vertically than those produced by using the commercial stereo package SOCET SET®. The DLR products are also homogenous in quality, whereas the SOCET products are less smoothed and have higher errors in rougher terrain. Despite this weak variation, our results are consistent with a rule of thumb of 0.2–0.3 pixel matching precision based on many prior studies. Horizontal resolution is significantly coarser than the DTM ground sample distance (GSD), which is typically 3–5 pixels.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2025

Introgression, phylogeography, and genomic species cohesion in the eastern North American white oak syngameon

Hybridization and interspecific gene flow play a substantial role in the evolution of plant taxa. The eastern North American white oak syngameon, a group of approximately 15 ecologically, morphologically and genomically distinguishable species, has long been recognised as a model system for studying introgressive hybridization in temperate trees. However, the prevalence, genomic context and environmental correlates of introgression in this system remain largely unknown. To assess introgression in the eastern North American white oak syngameon and population structure within the widespread Quercus macrocarpa , we conducted a rangewide survey of Q. macrocarpa and four sympatric eastern North American white oak species. Using a Hyb-Seq approach, we assembled a dataset of 3412 thinned single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 445 enriched target loci including 62 genes putatively associated with various ecological functions, as well as associated intronic regions and some off-target intergenic regions (not associated with the exons). Admixture analysis and hybrid class inference demonstrated species coherence despite hybridization and introgressive gene flow (due to backcrossing of F1s to one or both parents). Additionally, we recovered a genetic structure within Q. macrocarpa associated with latitude. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) indicate that proximity to range edge predicts interspecific admixture, but rates of genetic differentiation do not appear to vary between putative functional gene classes. Our study suggests that gene flow between eastern North American white oak species may not be as rampant as previously assumed and that hybridization is most strongly predicted by proximity to a species' range margin.

Molecular Ecology↗
USGS2023

Linear and landscape disturbances alter Mojave desert tortoise movement behavior

Introduction: Animal movements are influenced by landscape features; disturbances to the landscape can alter movements, dispersal, and ultimately connectivity among populations. Faster or longer movements adjacent to a localized disturbance or within disturbed areas could indicate reduced habitat quality whereas slower or shorter movements and reduced movements may indicate greater availability of resources. The Mojave desert tortoise ( Gopherus agassizii ) is a threatened species that is challenged by anthropogenic disturbances. Methods: We studied tortoise movements using Global Positioning System (GPS) loggers at multiple sites in the Mojave Desert of Nevada and California. Tortoises at our sites encountered localized, linear human infrastructure, including paved roads, dirt roads, and fences, as well as landscape-scale disturbances [wildfire, off highway vehicle use (OHV), livestock grazing area]. We fit two-state (moving and encamped) Hidden Markov models to GPS logger data to infer how tortoise movement behavior relates to anthropogenic and natural features. Results: We found that temporal covariates, individual-level random effects (intercepts), and sex best explained state transition probability in all sites. We compared relationships between tortoise movement and linear disturbances, which varied depending on site and context. Tortoises made longer movements within the OHV recreation area, near most dirt roads, and near a low-traffic paved road, indicating that tortoises avoid these habitat disturbances. Conversely, tortoises made shorter movements in areas of higher slope and near highways, suggesting that these features may restrict movement or provide resources that result in prolonged use (e.g., forage or drinking locations). Tortoises that encountered fences around utility-scale solar installations were more active and made longer movements near fences, indicative of pacing behavior. Discussion: These results provide insight into how different disturbances alter tortoise movement behavior and modify tortoise habitat use, providing information that can be used to manage tortoise habitat.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2022

Scale dependence of coral reef oases and their environmental correlates

Identifying relatively intact areas within ecosystems and determining the conditions favoring their existence is necessary for effective management in the context of widespread environmental degradation. In this study, we used 3766 surveys of randomly selected sites in the United States and U.S. Territories to identify the correlates of sites categorized as “oases” (defined as sites with relatively high total coral cover). We used occupancy models to evaluate the influence of 10 environmental predictors on the probability that an area (21.2-km 2 cell) would harbor coral oases defined at four spatial extents: cross-basin, basin, region, and subregion. Across all four spatial extents, oases were more likely to occur in habitats with high light attenuation. The influence of the other environmental predictors on the probability of oasis occurrence were less consistent and varied with the scale of observation. Oases were most likely in areas of low human population density, but this effect was evident only at the cross-basin and subregional extents. At the regional and subregional extents oases were more likely where sea-surface temperature was more variable, whereas at the larger spatial extents the opposite was true. By identifying the correlates of oasis occurrence, the model can inform the prioritization of reef areas for management. Areas with biophysical conditions that confer corals with physiological resilience, as well as limited human impacts, likely support coral reef oases across spatial extents. Our approach is widely applicable to the development of conservation strategies to protect biodiversity and ecosystems in an era of magnified human disturbance.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2014

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in east-central Florida

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The “Null Space Monte Carlo” method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model’s capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial/temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

Florida↗
USGS2013

Nyamulagira’s magma plumbing system inferred from 15 years of InSAR

Nyamulagira, located in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo on the western branch of the East African rift, is Africa’s most active volcano, with an average of one eruption every 3 years since 1938. Owing to the socio-economical context of that region, the volcano lacks ground-based geodetic measurements but has been monitored by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) since 1996. A combination of 3D Mixed Boundary Element Method and inverse modelling, taking into account topography and source interactions, is used to interpret InSAR ground displacements associated with eruptive activity in 1996, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2010. These eruptions can be fitted by models incorporating dyke intrusions, and some (namely the 2006 and 2010 eruptions) require a magma reservoir beneath the summit caldera. We investigate inter-eruptive deformation with a multi-temporal InSAR approach. We propose the following magma plumbing system at Nyamulagira by integrating numerical deformation models with other available data: a deep reservoir (c. 25 km depth) feeds a shallower reservoir (c. 4 km depth); proximal eruptions are fed from the shallow reservoir through dykes while distal eruptions can be fed directly from the deep reservoir. A dyke-like conduit is also present beneath the upper southeastern flank of Nyamulagira.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Synthesizing professional opinion and published science to build a conceptual model of Walleye recruitment

Understanding and predicting recruitment, longstanding goals in fisheries science and ecology, are complicated by variation in the importance of environmental drivers coupled with the dynamic nature of individual ecosystems. Developing an understanding of recruitment from well-monitored stocks offers an opportunity to overcome these complexities. We used a systematic literature review, a survey, and a workshop attended by professionals with expertise in recruitment of Walleye Sander vitreus to identify common environmental drivers of Walleye recruitment and additional sources of variation (i.e., context dependencies) among populations. The importance of individual environmental drivers, as well as the direction of their influence, differed as a function of geographic region, lake surface area, and Walleye life stage. The literature suggested abiotic conditions (e.g., temperature) during the first year of life were influential in determining recruitment. Professional opinion noted the importance of biotic factors, with prey availability and predation risk having the most consistent relationships with recruitment. We synthesized this information to propose a conceptual model that illustrates the suite of characteristics that shape Walleye recruitment over large spatial and temporal scales. Our findings emphasize the importance of first-year growth and system-specific contextual factors, which can alter the relative importance of the environmental drivers of recruitment.

Fisheries Magazine↗
USGS2013

Serious games experiment toward agent-based simulation

We evaluate the potential for serious games to be used as a scientifically based decision-support product that supports the United States Geological Survey’s (USGS) mission--to provide integrated, unbiased scientific information that can make a substantial contribution to societal well-being for a wide variety of complex environmental challenges. Serious or pedagogical games are an engaging way to educate decisionmakers and stakeholders about environmental challenges that are usefully informed by natural and social scientific information and knowledge and can be designed to promote interactive learning and exploration in the face of large uncertainties, divergent values, and complex situations. We developed two serious games that use challenging environmental-planning issues to demonstrate and investigate the potential contributions of serious games to inform regional-planning decisions. Delta Skelta is a game emulating long-term integrated environmental planning in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, that incorporates natural hazards (flooding and earthquakes) and consequences for California water supplies amidst conflicting water interests. Age of Ecology is a game that simulates interactions between economic and ecologic processes, as well as natural hazards while implementing agent-based modeling. The content of these games spans the USGS science mission areas related to water, ecosystems, natural hazards, land use, and climate change. We describe the games, reflect on design and informational aspects, and comment on their potential usefulness. During the process of developing these games, we identified various design trade-offs involving factual information, strategic thinking, game-winning criteria, elements of fun, number and type of players, time horizon, and uncertainty. We evaluate the two games in terms of accomplishments and limitations. Overall, we demonstrated the potential for these games to usefully represent scientific information within challenging environmental and ecosystem-management contexts and to provide an interactive way of learning about the complexity of interactions between people and natural systems. Further progress on the use of pedagogical games to fulfill the USGS mission will require collaboration among scientists, game developers, educators, and stakeholders. We conclude that as the USGS positions itself to communicate and convey the results of multiple science strategies, including natural-resource security and sustainability, pedagogical game development and agent-based modeling offer a means to (1) establish interdisciplinary and collaborative teams with a focused integrated outcome; (2) contribute to the modeling of interaction, feedback, and adaptation of ecosystems; and (3) enable social learning through a broadly appealing and increasingly sophisticated medium.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2021

The application of metacommunity theory to the management of riverine ecosystems

River managers strive to use the best available science to sustain biodiversity and ecosystem function. To achieve this goal requires consideration of processes at different scales. Metacommunity theory describes how multiple species from different communities potentially interact with local-scale environmental drivers to influence population dynamics and community structure. However, this body of knowledge has only rarely been used to inform management practices for river ecosystems. In this article, we present a conceptual model outlining how the metacommunity processes of local niche sorting and dispersal can influence the outcomes of management interventions and provide a series of specific recommendations for applying these ideas as well as research needs. In all cases, we identify situations where traditional approaches to riverine management could be enhanced by incorporating an understanding of metacommunity dynamics. A common theme is developing guidelines for assessing the metacommunity context of a site or region, evaluating how that context may affect the desired outcome, and incorporating that understanding into the planning process and methods used. To maximize the effectiveness of management activities, scientists, and resource managers should update the toolbox of approaches to riverine management to reflect theoretical advances in metacommunity ecology.

WIREs Water↗
USGS2023

Empirical evidence for effects of invasive American Bullfrogs on occurrence of native amphibians and emerging pathogens

Invasive species and emerging infectious diseases are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity. American Bullfrogs ( Rana [ Lithobates ] catesbeiana ), which have been introduced to many parts of the world, are often linked with declines of native amphibians via predation and spreading emerging pathogens such as amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]) and ranaviruses. Although many studies have investigated the potential role of bullfrogs in declines of native amphibians, analyses that account for shared habitat affinities and imperfect detection have found limited support for clear effects. Similarly, the role of bullfrogs in shaping the patch-level distribution of pathogens is unclear. We used eDNA methods to sample 233 sites in the southwestern USA and Sonora, Mexico (2016–2018) to estimate how presence of bullfrogs affects occurrence of 4 native amphibians, Bd, and ranaviruses. Based on 2-species, dominant-subordinate occupancy models fitted in a Bayesian context, federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs ( R. chiricahuensis ) and Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ) were 8 times (32% vs. 4%) and 2 times (36% vs. 18%), respectively, less likely to occur at sites where bullfrogs occurred. Evidence for negative effects of bullfrogs on Lowland Leopard Frogs ( R. yavapaiensis ) and Northern Leopard Frogs ( R. pipiens ) was less clear, possibly because of smaller numbers of sites where these native species still occur and because bullfrogs often occur at lower densities in streams, the primary habitat for Lowland Leopard Frogs. At the community level, Bd was most likely to occur where bullfrogs co-occurred with native amphibians, which could increase risk to native species. Ranaviruses were estimated to occur at 33% of bullfrog-only sites, 10% of sites where bullfrogs and native amphibians co-occurred, and only 3% of sites where only native amphibians occurred. Of the 85 sites where we did not detect any of the 5 target amphibian species, we also did not detect Bd or ranaviruses; this suggests other hosts do not drive the distribution of these pathogens in our study area. Our results provide landscape-scale evidence that bullfrogs reduce occurrence of native amphibians and increase occurrence of pathogens, information that can clarify risks and aid the prioritization of conservation actions.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2016

First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog ( Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

Canadian Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2024

Two risk assessments: Evaluating the use of indicator HF183 Bacteroides versus pathogen measurements for modelling recreational illness risks in an urban watershed

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of HF183 Bacteroides for estimating pathogen exposures during recreational water activities. We compared the use of Bacteroides -based exposure assessment to exposure assessment that relied on pathogen measurements. We considered two types of recreational water sites: those impacted by combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and those not impacted by CSOs. Samples from CSO-impacted and non-CSO-impacted urban creeks were analysed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) for HF183 Bacteroides and eight human gastrointestinal pathogens. Exposure assessment was conducted two ways for each type of site (CSO-impacted vs. non-CSO impacted): 1) by estimating pathogen concentrations from HF183 Bacteroides concentrations using published ratios of HF183 and pathogens in sewage and 2) by estimating pathogen concentrations from qPCR measurements. QMRA (quantitative microbial risk assessment) was then conducted for swimming, wading, and fishing exposures. Overall, mean risk estimates varied from 0.27 to 53 illnesses per 1,000 recreators depending on exposure assessment, site, activity, and norovirus dose-response model. HF183-based exposure assessment identified CSO-impacted sites as higher risk, and the recommended HF183 risk-based threshold of 525 genomic copies per 100 mL was generally protective of public health at the CSO-impacted sites but was not as protective at the non-CSO-impacted sites. In the context of our urban watershed, HF183-based exposure assessment over- and under-estimated risk relative to exposure assessment based on pathogen measurements and the etiology of predicted pathogen-specific illnesses differed significantly. Across all sites, the HF183 model overestimated risk for norovirus, adenovirus, and Campylobacter jejuni , and it underestimated risk for E. coli and Cryptosporidium . To our knowledge, this study is the first to directly compare health risk estimates using HF183 and empirical pathogen measurements from the same waterways. Our work highlights the importance of site-specific hazard identification and exposure assessment to decide whether HF183 is applicable for monitoring risk.

Pennsylvania↗