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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources
USGS2002

Does bird community structure vary with landscape patchiness? A Chihuahuan Desert perspective

During the springs of 1995-1997, we studied birds and landscapes at 70 sites in the Chihuahuan Desert to assess relations between bird community structure and landscape patchiness. Within each of two spatial extents (1-kin and 2-km-radius areas centered on each site), we measured the number of patches of individual land-cover types and the total number of patches of all land-cover types. Mean bird richness, and the mean abundance and probability of occurrence of most bird species were significantly correlated with one or more of these variables. Contrary to evidence from other systems, positive association with landscape patchiness did not increase with the degree to which species were habitat generalists, was not negatively related to body size, and did not differ between neotropical migrants and nonmigrants. For the communities' primary constituent species as a group, the strength of positive and negative associations with patchiness did not differ between landscape extents. Within the 1-km but not the 2-km extent, habitat specialists were more positively and negatively associated with patchiness than were habitat generalists. In general, however, neither habitat breadth, body size, nor migratory status seemed to be responsible for associations with landscape patchiness. Mean richness, and the mean abundance and probability of occurrence of most species were significantly correlated with patchiness within one or both extents, and patchiness of all of the most extensive land-cover types was influential. The simplest explanation for most of the bird-patchiness relations we found is that the associations reflected species-specific habitat needs. Through effects on avian richness, abundance, and occurrence, landscape patchiness affected bird community structure. A more complete understanding of the effects of landscape patchiness on bird community structure is likely to emerge when ecologists study the patchiness of major land-cover types at various spatial extents.

Oikos↗
USGS2018

Fuelling conditions at staging sites can mitigate Arctic warming effects in a migratory bird

Under climate warming, migratory birds should align reproduction dates with advancing plant and arthropod phenology. To arrive on the breeding grounds earlier, migrants may speed up spring migration by curtailing the time spent en route , possibly at the cost of decreased survival rates. Based on a decades-long series of observations along an entire flyway, we show that when refuelling time is limited, variation in food abundance in the spring staging area affects fitness. Bar-tailed godwits migrating from West Africa to the Siberian Arctic reduce refuelling time at their European staging site and thus maintain a close match between breeding and tundra phenology. Annual survival probability decreases with shorter refuelling times, but correlates positively with refuelling rate, which in turn is correlated with food abundance in the staging area. This chain of effects implies that conditions in the temperate zone determine the ability of godwits to cope with climate-related changes in the Arctic.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2002

Avian species richness in different-aged stands of riparian forest along the middle Rio Grande, New Mexico

Riparian forests are important for maintaining vertebrate species richness in the southwestern United States, but they have become restricted in distribution due to both historical and current management practices. In order to counteract continued loss of this habitat, several mitigation programs were developed in the middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico. Three areas ranging from 50 to 140 ha were revegetated with native trees using pole planting and cattle exclosures, and changes in vegetation structure were quantified after 2, 3, and 5 years of growth. As expected, the older site contained the most heterogeneous mix of plant species and the greatest structural diversity. We compared year-round avian use of the revegetated sites with a mature cottonwood forest site of approximately 30 years of age. As the revegetated sites matured and salient habitat features changed, the population dynamics of individual avian species and patterns of guild structure varied. The older revegetated sites showed a greater similarity to the mature cottonwood site, suggesting that reclamation efforts established quality riparian habitats for birds in as little as 5 years. The revegetated sites appeared especially important for Neotropical-migrant birds. We suggest that a mosaic of riparian woodlands containing mixtures of native tree and shrub species of different size classes is necessary to maintain avian species richness in the middle Rio Grande drainage, and probably throughout the southwestern United States.

New Mexico↗
USGS2007

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

Wildlife Research↗
USGS2024

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

PNAS↗
USGS2025

Three decades of declines restructure butterfly communities in the Midwestern United States

Insects are declining worldwide, yet gaps remain in our understanding of how declines are distributed across species within communities. Using three decades of butterfly monitoring data aggregated from the Midwestern United States, we found that no butterfly species increased in abundance from 1992 to 2023. 59 out of 136 species declined (annual mean trend: −1.2 to −6.9% per year) with losses distributed across all functional groups including residents, migrants, rare, and common species. Community composition changed such that abundance is now more even across species, driven by more severe losses in abundance—but not richness—of common species compared to rare species. These widespread declines are likely cascading across ecosystems. Conservation efforts that focus on entire communities could mitigate butterfly biodiversity loss.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Miss↗
USGS2012

Downstream movement of fall Chinook salmon juveniles in the lower Snake River reservoirs during winter and early spring

We conducted a 3-year radiotelemetry study in the lower Snake River to (1) determine whether juvenile fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha pass dams during winter, when bypass systems and structures designed to prevent mortality are not operated; (2) determine whether downstream movement rate varies annually, seasonally, and from reservoir to reservoir; and (3) identify some of the factors that contribute to annual, seasonal, and spatial variation in downstream movement rate. Fall Chinook salmon juveniles moved downstream up to 169 km and at a sufficiently fast rate (7.5 km/d) such that large percentages (up to 93%) of the fish passed one or more dams during the winter. Mean downstream movement rate varied annually (9.2–11.3 km/d), increased from winter (7.5 km/d) to spring (16.4 km/d), and increased (from 6.9 to 16.8 km/d) as fish moved downstream from reservoir to reservoir. Fish condition factor at tagging explained some of the annual variation in downstream movement rate, whereas water particle velocity and temperature explained portions of the seasonal variation. An increase in migrational disposition as fish moved downstream helped to explain the spatial variation. The potential cost of winter movement might be reduced survival due to turbine passage at a time when the bypass systems and spillway passage structures are not operated. Efforts to understand and increase passage survival of winter migrants in large impoundments might help to rehabilitate some imperiled anadromous salmonid populations.

Snake River↗
USGS2013

Colonization of steelhead in a natal stream after barrier removal

Colonization of vacant habitats is an important process for supporting the long-term persistence of populations and species. We used a before–after experimental design to follow the process of colonization by steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout) at six monitoring sites in a natal stream, Beaver Creek, after the modification or removal of numerous stream passage barriers. Juvenile O. mykiss were collected at monitoring sites by using a backpack electrofisher. Passive integrated transponder tags and instream tag reading stations were used in combination with 16 microsatellite markers to determine the source, extent, and success of migrant O. mykiss after implementation of the barrier removal projects. Steelhead migrated into the study area during the first spawning season after passage was established. Hatchery steelhead, although comprising more than 80% of the adult returns to the Methow River basin, constituted a small proportion (23%) of the adult O. mykiss colonizing the study area. Adult steelhead and fluvial Rainbow Trout entered the stream during the first spawning season after barrier removal and were passing the uppermost tag reader (12 km upstream from the mouth) 3–4 years later. Parr that were tagged in Beaver Creek returned as adults, indicating establishment of the anadromous life history in the study area. Population genetic measures at the lower two monitoring sites (lower 4 km of Beaver Creek) significantly changed within one generation (4–5 years). Colonization and expansion of steelhead occurred more slowly than expected due to the low number of adults migrating into the study area.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2014

Movements and demography of spawning American Shad in the Penobscot River, Maine, prior to dam removal

We conducted a baseline study to better understand the migratory movements and age and spawning histories of American Shad Alosa sapidissima in the Penobscot River, Maine. The Penobscot River is currently undergoing a major dam removal project that is focused on restoring migratory connectivity and recovering diadromous fish populations including American Shad. This study addresses key data gaps for a previously unstudied native population of shad prior to restoration. A combination of radio- ( n = 70) and acoustic telemetry ( n = 14) was used to investigate the movements of migratory adult fish in 2010 and 2011. Scale-based analyses were used to assess spawner age and iteroparity. Radiotelemetry results indicated that few tagged fish (5–8%) approached the head-of-tide dam. Tagged fish exhibited three general patterns of movement in the accessible freshwater river habitat: use of the upper river reach, the lower river reach, or both. Mean freshwater residence time ranged from 9.1 to 14.0 d. Congregating fish were observed at two sites in the upper river reach and spawning activity was observed. Freshwater survival and survival to the estuary were at least 71%. This observed high survival was consistent with the estimated age and spawning histories of tracked fish, which indicated that 75–95% of the sampled fish were repeat spawners. Estimated age of adult migrants ranged from age 4 to age 9. Postspawning acoustic-tagged American Shad exhibited a series of prolonged upstream and downstream reversals upon entering the lower estuary. These movements have been previously unreported, and suggest that estuarine residency after spawning is important to osmoregulatory acclimatization for re-entry into salt water and the resumption of postspawning feeding activity.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2012

Spatial and temporal diet patterns of subadult and small adult striped bass in Massachusetts estuaries: Data, a synthesis, and trends across scales

Subadult and small adult (375–475 mm total length) striped bass Morone saxatilis are abundant and represent an important component of the recovered U.S. Atlantic coast stocks. However, little is known about these large aggregations of striped bass during their annual foraging migrations to New England. A quantitative understanding of trends in the diets of subadult and small adult migrants is critical to research and management. Because of the complexity of the Massachusetts coast, we were able to compare diets at multiple spatial, temporal, and taxonomic scales and evaluate which of these provided the greatest insights into the foraging patterns of this size of fish. Specifically, during spring through autumn, we quantified the diets of 797 migratory striped bass collected from 13 Massachusetts estuaries distributed among three geographic regions in two biogeographic provinces. Our data provided three useful results. First, subadult and young adult striped bass ate a season-specific mixture of fish and invertebrates. For example, more juvenile Atlantic herring Clupea harengus were eaten in spring than in summer or autumn, more juvenile Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus were eaten in autumn than in spring or summer, amphipods were eaten primarily in the southern biogeographic province, and shrimp Crangon sp. were eaten in all locations and seasons. Second, examining diets by season was essential because of the temporal variability in striped bass prey. Grouping prey by fish and invertebrates revealed the potential for predictable differences in growth across geographic locations and seasons, based on the output from simple bioenergetics simulations. Third, of the three spatial scales examined, region provided the most quantitative and interpretable ecological trends. Our results demonstrate the utility of comparing multiple scales to evaluate the best way to depict diet trends in a migrating predator that seasonally uses different geographic locations.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2020

Quantifying the contribution of habitats and pathways to a spatially structured population facing environmental change

The consequences of environmental disturbance and management are difficult to quantify for spatially structured populations because changes in one location carry through to other areas as a result of species movement. We develop a metric, G , for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different from other contribution metrics, as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences the ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats within which all individuals reside during one season are the most important to short-term network growth under complete removal scenarios, whereas the central breeding region contributes most to population growth over all but the strongest disturbances. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations. use changes in one location carry through to other areas due to species movement. We develop a metric, G, for measuring the contribution of a habitat or pathway to network-wide population growth rate in the face of environmental change. This metric is different than other contribution metrics as it quantifies effects of modifying vital rates for habitats and pathways in perturbation experiments. Perturbation treatments may range from small degradation or enhancement to complete habitat or pathway removal. We demonstrate the metric using a simple metapopulation example and a case study of eastern monarch butterflies. For the monarch case study, the magnitude of environmental change influences ordering of node contribution. We find that habitats through which all migrants flow are the most important to short-term network growth under complete-removal scenarios. The metric G provides for more efficient management interventions that proactively mitigate impacts of expected disturbances to spatially structured populations.

American Naturalist↗
USGS2021

The American Kestrel (Falco sparverius) genoscape: Implications for monitoring, management, and subspecies boundaries

Identifying population genetic structure is useful for inferring evolutionary process and comparing the resulting structure with subspecies boundaries can aid in species management. The American Kestrel ( Falco sparverius ) is a widespread and highly diverse species with 17 total subspecies, only 2 of which are found north of U.S./Mexico border ( F. s. paulus is restricted to southeastern United States, while F. s. sparverius breeds across the remainder of the U.S. and Canadian distribution). In many parts of their U.S. and Canadian range, American Kestrels have been declining, but it has been difficult to interpret demographic trends without a clearer understanding of gene flow among populations. Here we sequence the first American Kestrel genome and scan the genome of 197 individuals from 12 sampling locations across the United States and Canada in order to identify population structure. To validate signatures of population structure and fill in sampling gaps across the U.S. and Canadian range, we screened 192 outlier loci in an additional 376 samples from 34 sampling locations. Overall, our analyses support the existence of 5 genetically distinct populations of American Kestrels—eastern, western, Texas, Florida, and Alaska. Interestingly, we found that while our genome-wide genetic data support the existence of previously described subspecies boundaries in the United States and Canada, genetic differences across the sampled range correlate more with putative migratory phenotypes (resident, long-distance, and short-distance migrants) rather than a priori described subspecies boundaries per se. Based on our results, we suggest the resulting 5 genetically distinct populations serve as the foundation for American Kestrel conservation and management in the face of future threats.

Ornithology↗
USGS2012

Variation in migratory behavior influences regional genetic diversity and structure among American kestrel populations (Falco sparverius) in North America

Birds employ numerous strategies to cope with seasonal fluctuations in high-quality habitat availability. Long distance migration is a common tactic; however, partial migration is especially common among broadly distributed species. Under partial migration systems, a portion of a species migrates, whereas the remainder inhabits breeding grounds year round. In this study, we identified effects of migratory behavior variation on genetic structure and diversity of American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), a widespread partial migrant in North America. American Kestrels generally migrate; however, a resident group inhabits the southeastern United States year round. The southeastern group is designated as a separate subspecies (F. s. paulus) from the migratory group (F. s. sparverius). Using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites from 183 and 211 individuals, respectively, we illustrate that genetic structure is stronger among nonmigratory populations, with differentiation measures ranging from 0.060 to 0.189 depending on genetic marker and analysis approach. In contrast, measures from western North American populations ranged from 0 to 0.032. These findings suggest that seasonal migratory behavior is also associated with natal and breeding dispersal tendencies. We likewise detected significantly lower genetic diversity within nonmigratory populations, reflecting the greater influence of genetic drift in small populations. We identified the signal of population expansion among nonmigratory populations, consistent with the recent establishment of higher latitude breeding locations following Pleistocene glacial retreat. Differentiation of F. s. paulus and F. s. sparverius reflected subtle differences in allele frequencies. Because migratory behavior can evolve quickly, our analyses suggest recent origins of migratory American Kestrel populations in North America.

Journal of Heredity↗
USGS2025

Spatial variation in landlocked Atlantic Salmon smolt survival associated with dam passage, avian predation, and stocking location

Objective We evaluated survival differences between upstream and downstream stocking for landlocked Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar smolts in a tributary to Lake Champlain. Methods We radio-tagged smolts and stocked them concurrently with 22,000 smolts at two release sites in 2 years. The downstream location (DS, river kilometer 16, no dam passage) was a historically used site in a dam tailrace, whereas the upstream site (US, river kilometer 27, two dams to pass) was in a side channel and stocked for the first time. We estimated survival, counted birds during stocking, and searched nesting colonies for transmitters. Results Within stocking reaches, survival per kilometer for the DS release group was markedly lower than that for the US group (US 2021 and 2022 = 0.98, 0.98, respectively; DS 2021 and 2022 = 0.82, 0.69, respectively). At the DS site, we documented a tenfold increase in avian predators following stocking, whereas no increase was detected at the US site. Passage was >96% at both dams, but postpassage survival (per kilometer) was much lower at the second dam (2021 = 0.78, 2022 = 0.82) compared to the first dam (2021 = 0.96, 2022 = 0.97). Surprisingly, cumulative survival to Lake Champlain was higher for fish that were released upstream in 2022 (US = 43%; DS = 32%) despite dam passage and additional migratory distance. At least 20% (2021) and 7% (2022) of successful migrants were later consumed by birds in the river delta or in Lake Champlain. Conclusions Upstream stocking did not consistently result in lower cumulative survival, likely due to predators habituated to annually reoccurring stocking in a dam tailrace that increased stocking-related mortality at the DS release site. We highlight the importance of evaluating historically used stocking sites, as substantial loss of smolts could be avoided by simple changes to stocking practices. Avian predation was a major source of mortality, necessitating further studies to understand and address survival issues within Lake Champlain.

Vermont↗
USGS2022

The Pacific as the world’s greatest theater of bird migration: Extreme flights spark questions about physiological capabilities, behavior, and the evolution of migratory pathways

The Pacific Basin, by virtue of its vastness and its complex aeroscape, provides unique opportunities to address questions about the behavioral and physiological capabilities and mechanisms through which birds can complete spectacular flights. No longer is the Pacific seen just as a formidable barrier between terrestrial habitats in the north and the south, but rather as a gateway for specialized species, such as shorebirds, to make a living on hemispherically distributed seasonal resources. This recent change in perspective is dramatic, and the research that underpins it has presented new opportunities to learn about phenomena that often challenge a sense of normal. Ancient Polynesians were aware of the seasonal passage of shorebirds and other landbirds over the Pacific Ocean, incorporating these observations into their navigational “tool kit” as they explored and colonized the Pacific. Some ten centuries later, systematic visual observations and tracking technology have revealed much about movement of these shorebirds, especially the enormity of their individual nonstop flights. This invites a broad suite of questions, often requiring comparative studies with bird migration across other ocean basins, or across continents. For example, how do birds manage many days of nonstop exercise apparently without sleep? What mechanisms explain birds acting as if they possess a Global Positioning System? How do such extreme migrations evolve? Through advances in both theory and tracking technology, biologists are poised to greatly expand the horizons of movement ecology as we know it. In this integrative review, we present a series of intriguing questions about trans-Pacific migrant shorebirds and summarize recent advances in knowledge about migratory behavior operating at temporal scales ranging from immediate decisions during a single flight, to adaptive learning throughout a lifetime, to evolutionary development of migratory pathways. Recent advances in this realm should stimulate future research across the globe and across a broad array of disciplines.

Ornithology↗
USGS2022

Interannual consistency of migration phenology is season- and breeding region-specific in North American Golden Eagles

Interannual consistency (an indicator of the strength of adjustments) in migration phenology of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in North America is most strongly associated with the breeding region, the season, and with late-season temperature on breeding and wintering grounds. Consistency was greatest in boreal spring migration and the breeding regions of eastern Canada. Using multi-year GPS tracks of 83 adults breeding in 3 spatially distant regions (Alaska, northeast Canada, and southeast Canada), we quantified the interannual consistency of migration phenology and wintering latitude within and among individuals tracked across multiple years and the repeatability ( r ) by breeding regions and seasons. By comparing regions and seasons, we found that consistency was highest ( r > 0.85) for boreal spring migration in eastern Canada while Alaska had the lowest value ( r < 0.15). Because seasonal consistency of migration phenology was only detected in eastern Canada, we conclude that seasonal features are not a primary constraint. While regional differences in consistency were not related to differences in migratory distances, they could be the result of genetic or habitat differences. We also found that temperatures warmer than the decadal average at the region of departure delayed the start of boreal spring migration by ~10 days and advanced boreal autumn migration by ~20 days. These results suggest that warmer temperatures would reduce residence time on breeding grounds, contrary to expectations and trends found in other studies. Wide variations in migratory strategies across a species distribution can add to the list of challenges for conservation but may give migrants the capacity to acclimate to environmental changes.

Ornithology↗
USGS2024

High variability of migration strategies in a re-established Cygnus buccinator (Trumpeter Swan) population

The Interior Population (IP) of Cygnus buccinator (Trumpeter Swan), formerly extirpated by market hunting, was re-established in eastern North America by releasing individuals from both migratory and non-migratory populations. Their current annual movement patterns are largely unknown. We deployed 113 GPS-GSM transmitters on IP C. buccinator in 6 U.S. states and 1 Canadian province across the current IP breeding range. Using data from 252 “swan-years”, we estimated migration phenology using piecewise regression models fit to each yearly time-series of displacement from the breeding site. We fit a latent-state model to characterize population-level associations between breeding latitude and maximum extent of migration, and linear mixed models to quantify associations between individual characteristics (e.g., breeding status, sex) and migration phenology. At the individual level, 59% of swans moved to distant nonbreeding-period areas (long-distance migration, defined as moving >100 km from the breeding site), 16% exhibited regional migration (25–100 km from breeding site), 19% exhibited non-migratory but local movements (<25 km from breeding site), and 6% exhibited multiple migration strategies. Swans breeding at more-northern latitudes departed their territories earlier in autumn, returned later in the spring, and migrated farther from their breeding territories than those breeding at more southern latitudes. Although the population-level association between migration extent and breeding latitude was positive, some individuals remained close to the location of their breeding site during the nonbreeding period. Breeding swans departed later in the autumn than non-breeders, but breeding status did not have a strong association with arrival in the spring. IP C. buccinator are partial migrants, with a continuum of strategies that vary latitudinally, from local movements to long-distance migration. Much of the variability in movement patterns related to factors tied to natural history demands (e.g., breeding status) and response to environmental conditions (e.g., through associations with breeding latitude).

Ornithology↗
USGS2025

Apparent annual survival of adult Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) may not differ by sex or region

Understanding range-wide demographic, spatial, and temporal variation in annual survival is essential for managing species of conservation concern. Multi-population models are useful tools for integrating diverse datasets, reducing biases, and deriving survival estimates across differing spatial scales. We conducted a range-wide, multi-population apparent annual survival analysis for a declining songbird, Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), using data from 18 sites across its breeding and nonbreeding grounds. This Nearctic-Neotropical migrant breeds in 2 disjunct regional populations, the Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, which are experiencing different rates of decline. We aimed to quantify regional-, site-, and sex-specific apparent annual survival estimates to identify geographic patterns or demographic factors influencing population declines. We used simulations to assess the precision of our estimates. Our models did not reveal a substantial difference in apparent annual survival between the Great Lakes (0.41, 95% credible interval (CrI):0.31–0.50) and the Appalachian regions (0.49, 95% CrI: 0.36–0.60), as CrIs overlapped. Site-specific estimates also showed no clear differences in apparent annual survival among sites representing both regional populations. Male apparent annual survival tended to be greater than female apparent annual survival in both regions, though CrI’s overlapped. Our study suggests demographic factors other than adult annual survival likely play a larger role in recent regional and range-wide population declines, such as productivity, juvenile/immature survival, or recruitment. Simulations indicate that improving recapture probability and study duration of datasets could lead to more precise apparent annual survival estimates. However, our model produced CrI ranges comparable to the most ideal data collection scenario, suggesting the lack of trends we found was not due to variability in our estimates. We stress the importance of addressing inherent biases in survival datasets and the need for standardized collaborative efforts to inform species conservation on a range-wide scale.

Ornithology↗