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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.

Landslides

Assessment of extreme subsurface hydrologic conditions captured during atmospheric river storms in the San Francisco Bay area (California, USA) with applications to shallow landslide early warning

An increase in soil pore water pressure is the typical trigger for the majority of landslides caused by rainfall. Atmospheric river storms, common to the west coast of North America during the winter season, can deliver landslide triggering rainfall resulting in severe impacts to coastal communities. Using a network of hydrologic monitoring stations situated within landslide-prone terrain in the San Francisco Bay area of California (USA), we assess the meteorologic conditions and resulting hydrologic and landslide response resulting from eight consecutive storm events that caused thousands of shallow landslides during the winter of 2022–2023. We find disparate hydrological responses and resultant degrees of observed landsliding ranging from < 1 landslide/km2 to 18 landslides/km2 at the monitoring sites that reflect the interplay and differences between rainfall delivery, subsurface hydrological characteristics, and geotechnical properties at each site. Antecedent soil moisture from both early season rainfall and the first storm in the sequence played a critical role in setting up some hillslopes for failure. Subsequent storms then generated elevated pore water pressures for several hours with associated landsliding. However, we find that the occurrence of widespread landsliding required not only sufficient pore water pressure magnitude in susceptible hillslopes, but also full and prolonged effective soil saturation throughout hillslope profiles. Landslides may still occur at lower values and durations of effective saturation but are likely to be less extensive regionally. We present these findings within the context of research directions and improvements to landslide early warning systems first suggested by researchers 40 years ago.

California

Influence of land use and hydrologic variability on seasonal dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export: Insights from a multi-year regional analysis for the northeastern USA

Land use/land cover (LULC) change has significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems and has been linked to deteriorating water quality globally. While many relationships between LULC and nutrient loading have been identified, characterization of the interaction between LULC, climate (specifically variable hydrologic forcing) and solute export across seasonal and interannual time scales is needed to understand the processes that determine nutrient loading and responses to change. Recent advances in high-frequency water quality sensors provide opportunities to assess these interannual relationships with sufficiently high temporal resolution to capture the unpredictable, short-term storm events that likely drive important export mechanisms for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO 3 − –N). We deployed a network of in situ sensors in forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds across the northeastern United States. Using 2 years of high-frequency sensor data, we provide a regional assessment of how LULC and hydrologic variability affected the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate export, and the status of watershed fluxes as either supply or transport controlled. Analysis of annual export dynamics revealed systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of DOC and NO 3 − –N delivery among different LULC classes, with distinct regional similarities in the timing of DOC and NO 3 − –N fluxes from forested and urban watersheds. Conversely, export dynamics at agricultural sites appeared to be highly site-specific, likely driven by local agricultural practices and regulations. Furthermore, the magnitude of solute fluxes across watersheds responded strongly to interannual variability in rainfall, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading across the region. Thus, there is strong potential for climate-driven changes in regional hydrologic cycles to drive variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient fluxes, particularly in watersheds where solute supply and/or transport has been modified.

Delaware, Rhode Island, Vermont

A classification of U.S. estuaries based on physical and hydrologic attributes

A classification of U.S. estuaries is presented based on estuarine characteristics that have been identified as important for quantifying stressor-response relationships in coastal systems. Estuaries within a class have similar physical and hydrologic characteristics and would be expected to demonstrate similar biological responses to stressor loads from the adjacent watersheds. Nine classes of estuaries were identified by applying cluster analysis to a database for 138 U.S. estuarine drainage areas. The database included physical measures of estuarine areas, depth and volume, as well as hydrologic parameters (i.e., tide height, tidal prism volume, freshwater inflow rates, salinity, and temperature). The ability of an estuary to dilute or flush pollutants can be estimated using physical and hydrologic properties such as volume, bathymetry, freshwater inflow and tidal exchange rates which influence residence time and affect pollutant loading rates. Thus, physical and hydrologic characteristics can be used to estimate the susceptibility of estuaries to pollutant effects. This classification of estuaries can be used by natural resource managers to describe and inventory coastal systems, understand stressor impacts, predict which systems are most sensitive to stressors, and manage and protect coastal resources. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Determination of biologically significant hydrologic condition metrics in urbanizing watersheds: an empirical analysis over a range of environmental settings

We investigated the relations among 83 hydrologic condition metrics (HCMs) and changes in algal, invertebrate, and fish communities in five metropolitan areas across the continental United States. We used a statistical approach that employed Spearman correlation and regression tree analysis to identify five HCMs that are strongly associated with observed biological variation along a gradient of urbanization. The HCMs related to average flow magnitude, high-flow magnitude, high-flow event frequency, high-flow duration, and rate of change of stream cross-sectional area were most consistently associated with changes in aquatic communities. Although our investigation used an urban gradient design with short hydrologic periods of record (&le;1 year) of hourly cross-sectional area time series, these five HCMs were consistent with previous investigations using long-term daily-flow records. The ecological sampling day often was included in the hydrologic period. Regression tree models explained up to 73, 92, and 79% of variance for specific algal, invertebrate, and fish community metrics, respectively. National models generally were not as statistically significant as models for individual metropolitan areas. High-flow event frequency, a hydrologic metric found to be transferable across stream type and useful for classifying habitat by previous research, was found to be the most ecologically relevant HCM; transformation by precipitation increased national-scale applicability. We also investigated the relation between measures of stream flashiness and land-cover indicators of urbanization and found that land-cover characteristic and pattern variables, such as road density, percent wetland, and proximity of developed land, were strongly related to HCMs at both a metropolitan and national scale and, therefore, may be effective land-use management options in addition to wholesale impervious-area reduction.

Milwaukee-Green Bay; Boston; Raleigh; Atlanta; Bir

Reconstructing vegetation response to altered hydrology and its use for restoration, Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida

We present reconstructed hydrologic and vegetation trends of the last three centuries across the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida in order to understand the effects of 20th century water management. We analyzed pollen assemblages from cores at marsh sites along three transects to document vegetation and infer hydroperiod and water depth both before and after human alteration of Everglades hydrology. In the northern and central part of the Refuge, late Holocene water levels were higher and hydroperiods longer than the last 100 years. Post-1950 was a time of several different water management strategies. Pollen assemblages indicate drier conditions post-1950 in the northern and central parts of the Refuge, whereas sites in the southern Refuge are wetter and vegetation turnover is higher. Throughout the Refuge, Sagittaria pollen declines with the onset of water management, and may indicate a loss of greater variation in hydroperiods across years and water depths between seasons. Paleoecological evidence provides clear estimates of the vegetation response to hydrologic change under specific hydrologic regimes.

Florida

Inundation tolerance, rather than drought tolerance, predicts riparian plant distributions along a local hydrologic gradient

Riparian vegetation varies along hydrologic gradients, along which inundation and drought tend to be inversely correlated. Differentiating effects of inundation and drought on plant distributions is critical for predicting impacts of changes to baseflows and designing flow patterns to achieve vegetation objectives in regulated river systems. To this end, we conducted a greenhouse experiment where we decreased, increased, or maintained constant water levels experienced by a suite of riparian plant species. We related changes in new root growth and stomatal conductance under experimental conditions to species hydrologic niches in the field, specifically the median elevation at which they occur above the channel, along the regulated Colorado River in Grand Canyon. We found a significant negative relationship between root growth response to experimental inundation with increasing elevation above the channel in the field, and a negative response of stomatal conductance to inundation among the most xeric-adapted species. Drought responses were idiosyncratic with respect to hydrologic niche, and instead seemed to vary in relation to clonality and rooting depth. Several Salicaceae tree species that are uncommon along regulated rivers exhibited consistently negative responses to both drought and inundation relative to other species, which may explain their rarity. The results of this study suggest that riparian plant distributions along hydrologic gradients have been shaped primarily by current and past levels of inundation. However, future anticipated declines in the water table are likely to produce species-specific responses based on drought tolerance that may in part be predicted from the results of this experiment.

Wetlands

Metal stable isotopes in weathering and hydrology

This chapter highlights some of the major developments in the understanding of the causes of metal stable isotope compositional variability in and isotope fractionation between natural materials and provides numerous examples of how that understanding is providing new insights into weathering and hydrology. At this stage, our knowledge of causes of stable isotope compositional variability among natural materials is greatest for the metals lithium, magnesium, calcium, and iron, the isotopes of which have already provided important information on weathering and hydrological processes. Stable isotope compositional variability for other metals such as strontium, copper, zinc, chromium, barium, molybdenum, mercury, cadmium, and nickel has been demonstrated but is only beginning to be applied to questions related to weathering and hydrology, and several research groups are currently exploring the potential. And then there are other metals such as titanium, vanadium, rhenium, and tungsten that have yet to be explored for variability of stable isotope composition in natural materials, but which may hold untold surprises in their utility. This impressive list of metals having either demonstrated or potential stable isotope signals that could be used to address important unsolved questions related to weathering and hydrology, constitutes a powerful toolbox that will be increasingly utilized in the coming decades.

Book chapter

Hydrologic exchange flows and their ecological consequences in river corridors

The actively flowing waters of streams and rivers remain in close contact with surrounding off-channel and subsurface environments. These hydrologic linkages between relatively fast flowing channel waters, with more slowly flowing waters off-channel and in the subsurface, are collectively referred to as hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs). HEFs include surface exchange with a channel’s marginal areas and subsurface flow through the streambed (hyporheic flow), as well as storm-driven bank storage and overbank flows onto floodplains. HEFs are important, not only for storing water and attenuating flood peaks, but also for their role in influencing water conservation, water quality improvement, and related outcomes for ecological values and services of aquatic ecosystems. Biogeochemical opportunities for chemical transformations are increased by HEFs as a result of the prolonged contact between flowing waters and geochemically and microbially active surfaces of sediments and vegetation. Chemical processing is intensified and water quality is often improved by removal of excess nutrients, metals, and organic contaminants from flowing waters. HEFs also are important regulators of organic matter decomposition, nutrient recycling, and stream metabolism that helps establish a balanced and resilient aquatic food web. The shallow and protected storage zones associated with HEFs support nursery and feeding areas for aquatic organisms that sustain aquatic biological diversity. Understanding of these varied roles for HEFs has been driven by the related disciplines of stream ecology, fluvial geomorphology, surface-water hydraulics, and groundwater hydrology. A current research emphasis is on the role that HEFs play in altered flow regimes, including restoration to achieve diverse goals, such as expanding aquatic habitats and managing dissolved and suspended river loads to reduce over-fertilization of coastal waters and offset wetland loss. New integrative concepts and models are emerging (eg, hydrologic connectivity) that emphasize HEF functions in river corridors over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

Book chapter

Hydrologic and environmental thresholds in stream fish assemblage structure across flow regimes

The characteristic pattern of variation in flow magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change defines the flow regime of rivers and streams and is a key driver of ecosystem processes in fluvial ecosystems. Understanding how freshwater biotic assemblages change across gradients of hydrology and anthropogenic-source disturbance in different streamflow regimes is crucial to managing for sustainable environmental flows and watershed conservation. We compiled long-term (1916–2016) occurrence records for fishes collected in the Ouachita-Ozark Interior Highlands and West Gulf Coastal Plain streams, together with hydrologic metrics calculated from daily streamflow data measured at USGS stream gauging stations (n = 111), to examine important drivers and thresholds for fish assemblage turnover in groundwater (GW), runoff (RO), and intermittent (INT) flow regimes. We also examined the importance of spatial gradients (latitude, longitude, elevation, drainage area) and anthropogenic-source stressors (Hydrologic Disturbance Index; HDI) for fish assemblage turnover using a gradient forest modeling approach. Watershed fragmentation was of high importance for fish assemblage turnover in RO and INT streams, while changes in dam storage were more important for fishes in GW streams. Hydrologic metrics describing seasonal and stochastic properties of daily streamflow (Mag6) were most important for fish assemblage turnover in INT streams. Timing of high flow events had significantly higher importance compared to flow magnitude, duration, and frequency metrics, especially for fish assemblages in GW and INT streams. The frequency and timing of low flow events had high importance for fish assemblage turnover across all stream flow classes, while the magnitude of low flows and the magnitude and rate of change of average flows was most important for INT stream fish assemblages. In addition to benefiting multi-species conservation and management actions through identification of local and regional flow-ecology relationships generalized across different flow regimes, the results of this study provide a better understanding of complex nonlinear threshold effects, which is critical to anticipating changes in aquatic ecosystems and communities.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Science of the Total Environment

Fish beta diversity associated with hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients in contrasting stream flow regimes

Understanding the role of hydrologic variation in structuring aquatic communities is crucial for successful conservation and sustainable management of native freshwater biodiversity. Partitioning beta diversity into the additive components of spatial turnover and nestedness can provide insight into the forces driving variability in fish assemblages across stream flow regimes. We examined stream fish beta diversity across hydrologic and anthropogenic disturbance gradients using long-term (1916–2016) site occurrence records ( n = 17,375) encompassing 252 species. We assessed total beta diversity (Sørensen dissimilarity), spatial turnover, and nestedness of fish assemblages in contrasting stream flow regimes across a gradient of decreasing flow stability: groundwater stable ( n = 77), groundwater ( n = 67), groundwater flashy ( n = 175), perennial runoff ( n = 141), runoff flashy ( n = 255), and intermittent ( n = 63) streams. Differences in total beta diversity among the stream flow regimes were driven predominantly (>86 %) by spatial turnover (i.e. species replacement) as opposed to nestedness (i.e. species loss or gain). Total fish beta diversity and spatial turnover were highest in streams with intermediate flow stability (groundwater flashy), while more flow-stable streams (groundwater stable and groundwater) had lower turnover and higher nestedness. Species turnover was also strongly associated with seasonal variation in hydrology across all flow regimes, but these relationships were most evident for assemblages in intermittent streams. Distance-based statistical comparisons showed significant correlations between beta diversity and anthropogenic disturbance variables, including dam density, dam storage volume and water withdrawals in catchments of groundwater stable streams, while hydrologic variables were more strongly correlated with beta diversity in streams with runoff-dominated and flashy flow regimes. The high spatial turnover of species implies that fish conservation actions would benefit from watershed-focused approaches targeting multiple streams with wide spatial distribution, as opposed to simply focusing on preserving sites with the greatest number of species.

Science of the Total Envionrment

A comparison of wetland tree growth response to hydrologic regime in Louisiana and South Carolina

Numerous investigations have examined the growth of wetland tree species under a variety of hydrologic conditions. Most studies have compared flooded versus non-flooded conditions in greenhouses or in one to a few field sites near each other or within the same region. Comparisons of wetland tree growth among widely separated areas of the country are rare. This study compared the diameter growth of Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora, Nyssa aquatica , and Taxodium distichum trees from Louisiana (Gulf Coastal Plain) and South Carolina (Atlantic Coastal Plain). In both regions, individual trees were distributed along a gradient of hydrologic regimes from infrequent to permanent flooding. Nyssa sylvatica var. biflora was restricted to periodically flooded sites in both regions. Within these sites, this species showed little response to differences in mean water depth. In contrast, significant differences among hydrologic regimes were detected for N. aquatica in both regions. In Louisiana, patterns of growth response did not correlate with the gradient of hydrologic regimes, but in South Carolina maximum growth was inversely related to mean water levels during the growing season. Maximum growth of T. distichum trees was observed at sites with shallow, permanent flooding in both regions.

Louisiana, South Carolina

Pliocene–Pleistocene hydrology and pluvial lake during Marine Isotope Stages 5a and 4, Deep Springs Valley, western Great Basin, Inyo County, California

Deep Springs Valley (DSV) is a hydrologically isolated valley between the White and Inyo mountains that is commonly excluded from regional paleohydrology and paleoclimatology. Previous studies showed that uplift of Deep Springs ridge (informal name) by the Deep Springs fault defeated streams crossing DSV and hydrologically isolated the valley sometime after eruption of the Pleistocene Bishop Tuff (0.772 Ma). Here, we present tephrochronology and clast counts that reaffirms interruption of the Pliocene–Pleistocene hydrology and formation of DSV during the Pleistocene. Paleontology and infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dates indicate a freshwater lake inundated Deep Springs Valley from ca. 83–61 ka or during Late Pleistocene Marine Isotope Stages 5a (MIS 5a; ca. 82 ka peak) and 4 (MIS 4; ca. 71–57 ka). The age of pluvial Deep Springs Lake coincides with pluvial lakes in Owens Valley and Columbus Salt Marsh and documents greater effective precipitation in southwestern North America during MIS 5a and MIS 4. In addition, we hypothesize that Deep Springs Lake was a balanced-fill lake that overflowed into Eureka Valley via the Soldier Pass wind gap during MIS 5a and MIS 4. DSV hydrology has implications for dispersal and endemism of the Deep Springs black toad ( Anaxyrus exsul ).

California

Occurrence and behavior of the herbicide Prometon in the hydrologic system

Prometon, a triazine herbicide, is used for total vegetation control on industrial sites, on noncrop areas on farms, in and under asphalt, and to a small extent by homeowners. Prometon has often been detected in surface water and groundwater in studies reported in the literature, but its presence is seldom discussed, partly because of its infrequent inclusion on lists of herbicides used in either agricultural or urban areas. In recent large-scale studies by the U.S. Geological Survey, prometon has been the most commonly detected herbicide in surface water and groundwater in urban areas and the third and fourth most commonly detected herbicide in groundwater and surface water, respectively, in agricultural areas. It also has been detected in rain. The frequent detection of prometon in the environment is discussed in relation to its use practices and predicted environmental behavior. Prometon is compared to atrazine, a structurally similar agricultural triazine herbicide that is one of the most studied and most commonly detected herbicides found in the hydrologic environment. The environmental data presented here demonstrate the wide-scale occurrence of prometon in all components of the hydrologic system, particularly in the surface water and groundwater of urban areas.Prometon, a triazine herbicide, is used for total vegetation control on industrial sites, on noncrop areas on farms, in and under asphalt, and to a small extent by homeowners. Prometon has often been detected in surface water and groundwater in studies reported in the literature, but its presence is seldom discussed, partly because of its infrequent inclusion on lists of herbicides used in either agricultural or urban areas. In recent large-scale studies by the U.S. Geological Survey, prometon has been the most commonly detected herbicide in surface water and groundwater in urban areas and the third and fourth most commonly detected herbicide in groundwater and surface water, respectively, in agricultural areas. It also has been detected in rain. The frequent detection of prometon in the environment is discussed in relation to its use practices and predicted environmental behavior. Prometon is compared to atrazine, a structurally similar agricultural triazine herbicide that is one of the most studied and most commonly detected herbicides found in the hydrologic environment. The environmental data presented here demonstrate the wide-scale occurrence of prometon in all components of the hydrologic system, particularly in the surface water and groundwater of urban areas.

Environmental Science & Technology

A hydrologic network supporting spatially referenced regression modeling in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a methodology for statistically relating nutrient sources and land-surface characteristics to nutrient loads of streams. The methodology is referred to as SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW), and relates measured stream nutrient loads to nutrient sources using nonlinear statistical regression models. A spatially detailed digital hydrologic network of stream reaches, stream-reach characteristics such as mean streamflow, water velocity, reach length, and travel time, and their associated watersheds supports the regression models. This network serves as the primary framework for spatially referencing potential nutrient source information such as atmospheric deposition, septic systems, point-sources, land use, land cover, and agricultural sources and land-surface characteristics such as land use, land cover, average-annual precipitation and temperature, slope, and soil permeability. In the Chesapeake Bay watershed that covers parts of Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, West Virginia, and Washington D.C., SPARROW was used to generate models estimating loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus representing 1987 and 1992 land-surface conditions. The 1987 models used a hydrologic network derived from an enhanced version of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's digital River Reach File, and course resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). A new hydrologic network was created to support the 1992 models by generating stream reaches representing surface-water pathways defined by flow direction and flow accumulation algorithms from higher resolution DEMs. On a reach-by-reach basis, stream reach characteristics essential to the modeling were transferred to the newly generated pathways or reaches from the enhanced River Reach File used to support the 1987 models. To complete the new network, watersheds for each reach were generated using the direction of surface-water flow derived from the DEMs. This network improves upon existing digital stream data by increasing the level of spatial detail and providing consistency between the reach locations and topography. The hydrologic network also aids in illustrating the spatial patterns of predicted nutrient loads and sources contributed locally to each stream, and the percentages of nutrient load that reach Chesapeake Bay.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Hydrologic conditions controlling runoff generation immediately after wildfire

We investigated the control of postwildfire runoff by physical and hydraulic properties of soil, hydrologic states, and an ash layer immediately following wildfire. The field site is within the area burned by the 2010 Fourmile Canyon Fire in Colorado, USA. Physical and hydraulic property characterization included ash thickness, particle size distribution, hydraulic conductivity, and soil water retention curves. Soil water content and matric potential were measured indirectly at several depths below the soil surface to document hydrologic states underneath the ash layer in the unsaturated zone, whereas precipitation and surface runoff were measured directly. Measurements of soil water content showed that almost no water infiltrated below the ash layer into the near-surface soil in the burned site at the storm time scale (i.e., minutes to hours). Runoff generation processes were controlled by and highly sensitive to ash thickness and ash hydraulic properties. The ash layer stored from 97% to 99% of rainfall, which was critical for reducing runoff amounts. The hydrologic response to two rain storms with different rainfall amounts, rainfall intensity, and durations, only ten days apart, indicated that runoff generation was predominantly by the saturation-excess mechanism perched at the ash-soil interface during the first storm and predominantly by the infiltration-excess mechanism at the ash surface during the second storm. Contributing area was not static for the two storms and was 4% (saturation excess) to 68% (infiltration excess) of the catchment area. Our results showed the importance of including hydrologic conditions and hydraulic properties of the ash layer in postwildfire runoff generation models.

Colorado

Deep Learning as a tool to forecast hydrologic response for landslide-prone hillslopes

Empirical thresholds for landslide warning systems have benefitted from the incorporation of soil‐hydrologic monitoring data, but the mechanistic basis for their predictive capabilities is limited. Although physically based hydrologic models can accurately simulate changes in soil moisture and pore pressure that promote landslides, their utility is restricted by high computational costs and nonunique parameterization issues. We construct a deep learning model using soil moisture, pore pressure, and rainfall monitoring data acquired from landslide‐prone hillslopes in Oregon, USA, to predict the timing and magnitude of hydrologic response at multiple soil depths for 36‐hr intervals. We find that observation records as short as 6 months are sufficient for accurate predictions, and our model captures hydrologic response for high‐intensity rainfall events even when those storm types are excluded from model training. We conclude that machine learning can provide an accurate and computationally efficient alternative to empirical methods or physical modeling for landslide hazard warning.

Oregon