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Water resources of the Rincon and Mesilla Valleys and adjacent areas, New Mexico

The Rincon and Mesilla Valleys of New Mexico extend from Caballo Reservoir to El Paso del Norte, west of El Paso, Texas. Water supplies for this area are obtained from the Rio Grande and from the saturated sediments filling the intermontane basins of south-central New Mexico. The two major aquifers are the Santa Fe Group of Miocene to middle Pleistocene age and the flood-plain alluvium of late Pleistocene and Holocene age. The Santa Fe Group is composed of thick deposits of interbedded clay, silt, sand, and gravel. The flood-plain alluvium, generally less than 80 feet thick, is composed of a basal gravel layer overlain by interbedded sand, silt, and clay. In the Rincon Valley, the flood-plain alluvium is the principal source of ground water because the underlying Santa Fe is composed predominantly of lacustrine clay deposits. In the Mesilla Valley, thick deposits of fluvial sands and gravels in the Santa Fe Group are hydraulically connected with the flood-plain alluvium. Water-table conditions occur in the flood-plain alluvium, which is recharged primarily by infiltration of surface water from the Rio Grande, irrigation canals, and irrigated fields. Recharge to the Santa Fe Group occurs primarily from downward infiltration of water from the flood-plain alluvium and secondarily from runoff infiltrating upland sediments and mountain-front fan deposits. In the short term, the Santa Fe Group responds as a leaky confined aquifer due to the presence of interbedded clays that reduce vertical permeability. Aquifer tests were conducted on 58 wells and test holes, most of which were completed in the Santa Fe Group. Transmissivities range from 1.3 to 21,100 feet squared per day. Average well yields range from about 1,050 gallons per minute in the Rincon Valley to about 1,500 gallons per minute in the Mesilla Valley. Yields in the Jornada del Muerto generally are much smaller. Movement of ground water is generally southward in the Rincon and Mesilla Valleys and toward the valleys in the adjacent upland areas. Ground water moves southeastward beneath the West Mesa area, converging with ground-water flow in the southern end of the Mesilla Valley. Good hydraulic connection exists between sediments of the West Mesa and Mesilla Valley areas. Ground water in the southern end of the Jornada del Muerto moves generally to the northwest, converges with south-flowing ground water near Point of Rocks, and moves westward into Rincon Valley sediments near Rincon. A small amount of ground water flows westward from the southern end of the Jornada del Muerto across a subsurface igneous body into the Mesilla Valley. Ground-water discharge occurs throughout the Rincon and Mesilla Valleys as drain flow to the river and evapotranspiration. Dissolved-solids concentrations in the water in the flood-plain alluvium of the Rincon and Mesilla Valleys are generally greater than 1,000 milligrams per liter. A freshwater zone, with dissolved-solids concentrations less than 1,000 milligrams per liter, underlies this thin, slightly saline zone beneath much of the Mesilla Valley. This freshwater zone, occurring in the Santa Fe Group, is surrounded by saline water. Within the study area, major dissolved ions in ground water include sodium, calcium, bicarbonate, and sulfate. The Rio Grande is a gainlng stream in the northern parts of the Rincon and Mesilla Valleys and a losing stream in the southern part of the Mesilla Valley. Gains and losses result from a close interconnection with ground-water flow systems. Large surface-water irrigation allotments increase ground-water recharge. Increased recharge raises ground-water levels and improves shallow ground-water quality adjacent to these recharge areas. Shallow ground-water discharges to drains, which flow into the Rio Grande. Dissolved-solids concentrations in the Rio Grande increase by as much as 60 percent between Caballo Reservoir and the southern end of the study area.

New Mexico

DDE, DDT + dieldrin: Residues in American kestrels and relations to reproduction

Captive American kestrels (Falco sparverius) given long-term dietary dosages of DDT and dieldrin in combination, at low and high rates, were compared with controls to determine the effects of the toxicants on reproductive success and eggshell thickness. Additional kestrels were dosed with DDE to determine its effect on shell thickness. Tissues of birds that died or were sacrificed, and eggs, were analyzed for DDE, DDD, DDT, and dieldrin. Eight paired birds, mostly males, given a high dosage of DDT + dieldrin died of dieldrin poisoning. Three periods of heavy mortality involving only dosed birds, which occurred in summer 1966, fall 1967, and spring 1968, followed temperature declines and other stress factors. Organochlorine concentrations in tissues of sacrificed birds and eggs in all units of the DDT + dieldrin study were significantly different among treatments. Residue concentrations in tissues of birds on high dosage of DDT + dieldrin were about 3 times higher than those on low dosage, a difference similar to the relative magnitude of the dose rates. Concentrations of some toxicants, especially DDE, were significantly higher in tissues of males than females, although these differences were difficult to interpret because males generally were sacrificed later than females. Concentrations in tissues and eggs of dosed yearlings, placed on clean food 7 to 9 weeks before pairing, were often significantly lower than in those yearlings that remained on dosage. Concentrations of each toxicant were usually highly correlated (r > 0.85) among tissues, especially for DDE and dieldrin. Organochlorine concentrations in brains and eggs could be predicted from concentrations in carcasses. DDE and dieldrin concentrations in eggs were about one-half those in carcasses, DDD about one-seventh, and DDT 1.5 to 2 times higher in eggs than carcasses. Eggshells of DDT + dieldrin-dosed kestrels were 6-23% thinner than eggshells of corresponding controls in different groups and years. Organochlorine concentrations in eggs and tissues of females were poorly correlated with shell thickness. Of the four toxicants in eggs, DDE was significantly and most closely correlated with fledging success. Interpretation of direct comparisons between our DDT + dieldrin studies and most current field situations are difficult because contaminant profiles in our birds are unlike those in most field samples.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report

Techniques for assessing water resource potentials in the developing countries: with emphasis on streamflow, erosion and sediment transport, water movement in unsaturated soils, ground water, and remote sensing in hydrologic applications

Hydrologic instrumentation and methodology for assessing water-resource potentials have originated largely in the developed countries of the temperature zone. The developing countries lie largely in the tropic zone, which contains the full gamut of the earth's climatic environments, including most of those of the temperate zone. For this reason, most hydrologic techniques have world-wide applicability. Techniques for assessing water-resource potentials for the high priority goals of economic growth are well established in the developing countries--but much more are well established in the developing countries--but much more so in some than in other. Conventional techniques for measurement and evaluation of basic hydrologic parameters are now well-understood in the developing countries and are generally adequate for their current needs and those of the immediate future. Institutional and economic constraints, however, inhibit growth of sustained programs of hydrologic data collection and application of the data to problems in engineering technology. Computer-based technology, including processing of hydrologic data and mathematical modelling of hydrologic parameters i also well-begun in many developing countries and has much wider potential application. In some developing counties, however, there is a tendency to look on the computer as a panacea for deficiencies in basic hydrologic data collection programs. This fallacy must be discouraged, as the computer is a tool and not a "magic box." There is no real substitute for sound programs of basic data collection. Nuclear and isotopic techniques are being used increasingly in the developed countries in the measurement and evaluation of virtually all hydrologic parameter in which conventional techniques have been used traditionally. Even in the developed countries, however, many hydrologists are not using nuclear techniques, simply because they lack knowledge of the principles involved and of the potential benefits. Nuclear methodology in hydrologic applications is generally more complex than the conventional and hence requires a high level of technical expertise for effective use. Application of nuclear techniques to hydrologic problems in the developing countries is likely to be marginal for some years to come, owing to the higher costs involved and expertise required. Nuclear techniques, however, would seem to have particular promise in studies of water movement in unsaturated soils and of erosion and sedimentation where conventional techniques are inadequate, inefficient and in some cases costly. Remote sensing offers great promise for synoptic evaluations of water resources and hydrologic processes, including the transient phenomena of the hydrologic cycle. Remote sensing is not, however, a panacea for deficiencies in hydrologic data programs in the developing countries. Rather it is a means for extending and augmenting on-the-ground observations ans surveys (ground truth) to evaluated water resources and hydrologic processes on a regionall or even continental scale. With respect to economic growth goals in developing countries, there are few identifiable gaps in existing hydrologic instrumentation and methodology insofar as appraisal, development and management of available water resources are concerned. What is needed is acceleration of institutional development and professional motivation toward more effective use of existing and proven methodology. Moreover, much sophisticated methodology can be applied effectively in the developing countries only when adequate levels of indigenous scientific skills have been reached and supportive institutional frameworks are evolved to viability.

Open-File Report

Physical limnology of Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

Water temperature and the distribution of various chemicals measured during surveys from June 7 to October 30, 1956, reflect a highly variable and rapidly changing circulation in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron. The circulation is influenced strongly by local winds and by the stronger circulation of Lake Huron which frequently causes injections of lake water to the inner extremity of the bay. The circulation patterns determined at six times during 1956 reflect the general characteristics of a marine estuary of the northern hemisphere. The prevailing circulation was counterclockwise; the higher concentrations of solutes from the Saginaw River tended to flow and enter Lake Huron along the south shore; water from Lake Huron entered the northeast section of the bay and had a dominant influence on the water along the north shore of the bay. The concentrations of major ions varied little with depth, but a decrease from the inner bay toward Lake Huron reflected the dilution of Saginaw River water as it moved out of the bay. Concentrations in the outer bay were not much greater than in Lake Huron proper. The proportions of various cations and anions were similar to the average proportions for the freshwaters of the world. The average flushing time was 186 days, but was 113 days during the period of peak river discharge. The lakeward transport of Saginaw River water ranged from 619 to 2,294 feet per day in the inner bay to 1,410 to 3,000 feet per day in the outer bay on June 7 and October 30, respectively.

Technical Report

Cape Romain partnership for coastal protection

This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition of adaptation problems faced by agencies, organizations, and individuals near the Cape Romain NWR that accounts for global change, local values, knowledge and perceptions; and to encourage social learning and building of effective networks and trust across South Carolina Lowcountry organizations and individuals. Although project scoping began at the scale of the Atlantic seaboard, by engaging with NWRs from Massachusetts to Florida, participating refuge personnel eventually selected the Cape Romain NWR to serve as a case study for testing our goals. The Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation was established to address global change impacts at a regional level and includes representation from Federal and State resource agencies, local conservation nongovernmental organizations, and organizations representing underserved community interests. Research topics, originating from discussions with Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Conservation members, focused on quantifying key drivers of change including localized sea-level rise (SLR) predictions, estimates of coastal hurricane inundation as amplified by SLR, and urban growth trends and forecasts. These key drivers provided a foundation to engage stakeholders in planning exercises to begin a process of collective understanding and collaborative decision making. The goal of this process was to develop collective strategies of adaptation to enhance community and ecosystem resilience in the South Carolina Lowcountry. South Carolina’s Lowcountry is experiencing rapid environmental and social transformation because of SLR rates approaching twice the global average, chronic tidal flooding and catastrophic storm surges, erosion and loss of habitats that provide essential services to wildlife and humans, and increasing social polarization fueled by aggressive low-density urban growth and other forms of land conversion. To support characterizations of plausible future scenarios, we used available or, in some cases, developed new models to project future conditions of key environmental and social-economic drivers. Because of the imprecision of mean global SLR projections, the SECASC commissioned a climatological study to account for local conditions and multiple representative concentration pathways to project a tailored distribution of future sea levels. These projections were matched to SLR scenarios provided by existing models to anticipate the range of future coastal habitat changes in the South Carolina Lowcountry. SLR scenarios were also incorporated into existing storm-surge models, which do not account for alternate baseline sea levels, to project the local effects of future hurricanes. To evaluate the extent and effects of population growth and urban expansion, we relied on an existing urban-growth model to map the spatial distribution of land-conversion probabilities, the total area of which is predicted to increase twofold to threefold over the next 60 years. In addition to this simplified model, an econometric model is in development to account for nonlinear feedback dynamics in land value, land use, and ecosystem service production. Although not yet completed, the goals of this model are to produce more-detailed projections of growth dynamics and to allow predictions of development patterns resulting from alternate land-use planning policies and incentives. Collaborative planning for an uncertain future requires more than providing decision makers with information on future physical and ecological conditions; developing effective and consensual strategies must also integrate sociological values, multiple cultural perspectives, and an understanding of human behavior. To support broad stakeholder engagement in integrative approaches to adaptation planning, emphasis was placed on the importance of considering differences in how individuals perceive their environment and create meaning. Because cultural frameworks form the basis for perceptions and, ultimately, the behaviors of individuals and institutions, we describe a model of human behavior and how it can be used to understand the effect of cultural complexity and variation in perception on choices, behavioral change, and long-term maintenance of behaviors. We consider a model commonly used in the field of behavioral health that accommodates variation in human perception when describing stages of behavior and the dynamics of behavioral change. Tailoring communication and engagement activities to targeted stakeholders is likely to benefit from increased understanding of behavioral change processes. The complex nature of this problem limited the usefulness of a traditional decision-analytic approach, we explored alternative methods for engagement, collaborative learning and decision making. Recognizing that project partners and Lowcountry stakeholders may be at different stages of preparedness and interest level for modifying behavior as a function of global change, we facilitated a scenario-planning exercise to familiarize partners with this well-established approach for communicating the opportunities and threats arising under alternative, plausible futures. We developed narratives for four alternative South Carolina Lowcountry scenarios to be used in later strategic planning that focus on quantitative trends for three primary drivers with high impact and high uncertainty: manifestations of climate change, social-political shifts at a global level, and forces of local value and power structures. This scenario-planning exercise underscored the complex relation between the temporospatial scale of the production of ecological goods and services and the institutional scale at which they are managed. We then guided the partners through an assessment of the relevant strengths and weaknesses of the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection, using the threats and opportunities characterized by each scenario to understand how the partnership might respond when attempting to meet conservation and societal objectives. The partnership identified key strengths including partnership experience, outreach and technical capacities, a substantial conservation land base, and high social cohesion in the South Carolina Lowcountry. Limited communication expertise, institutional inertia, and insufficient staffing and funding were recognized as important weaknesses across the partnership. By examining and scoring combinations of internal strengths and weaknesses and external threats and opportunities, the partnership developed sets of prioritized strategies to consider in the context of a given scenario. Although we had insufficient time to examine all scenarios in detail, the intent was to identify a portfolio of strategic actions to address threats and opportunities represented in multiple plausible futures. Top-ranking strategies encompassed a range of actions that focused on strengthening the conservation community and communicating the benefits of nature (that is, ecosystem services) to leveraging partnerships to expand land protection. This report also details the methods and preliminary results of several models developed or applied in support of this project. Two parcel-selection algorithms were used to evaluate anticipated habitat changes and patterns of urban growth to guide decisions on optimal conservation reserve design to protect habitat communities. One approach used a widely available planning software (MARXAN) to maximize conservation benefits near the Cape Romain NWR, whereas the other approach was a novel application of economic theory to account for uncertainty in future conditions and for the risks of unanticipated habitat loss. This latter model applies modern portfolio theory to estimate the risk of investing in any portfolio of land parcels (that is, candidate “reserves”) under climate-change uncertainty by quantifying the variation and spatial correlation of conservation benefits derived from each portfolio. We expanded the range of actions beyond simply whether or not to invest in a set of land parcels, an approach commonly used in spatial conservation planning, to also include consideration of divestment from currently protected lands. Such refinements allow for better accounting of system dynamics and can evaluate the benefits of flexible conservation tools such as rolling easements. Model results were conditional on a decision maker’s risk tolerance but highlighted general strategies of land conservation to increase future habitat representation beyond what is expected under the current protected land base. We built models that may help inform coastal planning by estimating salinity dynamics and the performance of oyster reef restoration efforts to predict the combined effects of global change and management of freshwater flows on coastal habitats and the processes that contribute to their resilience. These models can support restoration decisions by evaluating the expected benefits of site locations for shoreline protection and fisheries production. Lastly, we developed a spatially explicit economic model that predicts feedback dynamics among land value, land-use change, and effects on ecosystem service provision to explore zoning policies and incentives on urban growth and ecosystem services. We summarize these efforts with insights and considerations for the Cape Romain Partnership for Coastal Protection to continue to engage stakeholders in effective adaptation planning. First, notions of place attachment (referred to as sense of place), and the role of culture in social discourse are increasingly being used to understand the complex interactions between society and the environment and how societies respond and adapt to climate change. Sense of place was a unifying theme whenever the future of the South Carolina Lowcountry was discussed. The contribution of the South Carolina Lowcountry’s environmental wealth, rich cultural heritage, and quality of life to sense of place has important implications for how adaptation planning might best be pursued. More community-based governance of the commons (in other words, natural and cultural resources held in common), in which broad stakeholder participation and power sharing are key elements, is considered important. This devolution of governance is characterized by polycentric institutions and self-organizing social networks that promote a local culture of knowledge sharing, problem solving, and learning. These so-called bridging organizations (or individuals) often provide the leadership necessary to bring together potentially disparate Government agencies and institutions, private organizations, and individuals in a collective process of problem solving. Our observations also suggest that the conservation community in the South Carolina Lowcountry views its activities as integral to the broader governance of social-ecological systems, in which responses to the forces of global change are mediated through culture, economics, and politics. Rather than directly competing with other interests, the South Carolina Lowcountry conservation community seems to embrace an interpretation of conservation in which the fundamental objective is the quality of human life rather than environmental protection. Fundamental to the types of governance reforms described above is the notion of coproduction, in which experts and users collaborate to develop a shared body of knowledge. In this approach, scientists work with stakeholders to help frame questions, design research, and collect and analyze data. Such sustained collaborations are increasingly believed to be an effective way to produce useable (or actionable) science. The emphasis on social learning, leveraging strong social networks, coordinating and deliberating among diverse stakeholders, and applying principles of adaptive management is an essential contribution to adaptive capacity. The diverse and robust set of scientific approaches, methods to help stakeholders collaborate in effective and goal-driven planning processes, and decision tools resulting from this project hopefully will assist Cape Romain NWR and its partners prepare for climatic, ecological, and social changes over the coming decades.

South Carolina

Assessment of Appalachian Basin oil and gas resources: Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas Total Petroleum System

The Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas Total Petroleum System, lies within the central and northern parts of the Appalachian coal field. It consists of five assessment units (AU): the Pocahontas Basin in southwestern Virginia, southern West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky, the Central Appalachian Shelf in Tennessee, eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia, East Dunkard (Folded) in western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia, West Dunkard (Unfolded) in Ohio and adjacent parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and the Appalachian Anthracite and Semi-Anthracite AU in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Of these, only the Pocahontas Basin and West Dunkard (Folded) AU were assessed quantitatively by the U.S. Geological survey in 2002 as containing about 3.6 and 4.8 Tcf of undiscovered, technically recoverable gas, respectively (Milici and others, 2003). In general, the coal beds of this Total Petroleum System, which are both the source rock and reservoir, were deposited together with their associated sedimentary strata in Mississippian and Pennsylvanian (Carboniferous) time. The generation of biogenic (microbial) gas probably began almost immediately as the peat deposits were first formed. Microbial gas generation is probably occurring at present to some degree throughout the basin, where the coal beds are relatively shallow and wet. With sufficient depth of burial, compaction, and coalification during the late Paleozoic and Early Mesozoic, the coal beds were heated sufficiently to generate thermogenic gas in the eastern part of the Appalachian basin. Trap formation began initially with the deposition of the paleopeat deposits during the Mississippian, and continued into the Late Pennsylvanian and Permian as the Appalachian Plateau strata were deformed during the Alleghanian orogeny. Seals are the connate waters that occupy fractures and larger pore spaces within the coal beds as well as the fine-grained siliciclastic sedimentary strata that are intercalated with the coal. The critical moment for the petroleum system occurred during this orogeny, when deformation created geologic structures in the eastern part of the basin that enhanced fracture porosity within the coal beds. In places, burial by thrust sheets (thrust loading) within the Appalachian fold-and-thrust belt may have resulted in additional generation of thermogenic CBM in the anthracite district of Pennsylvania and in the semianthracite deposits of Virginia and West Virginia.

Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virgi

Digital mapping techniques '99 -- workshop proceedings

The Digital Mapping Techniques '99 (DMT'99) workshop was attended by 91 technical experts from 42 agencies, universities, and private companies, including representatives from 30 state geological surveys (see Appendix A ). This workshop was similar in nature to the first two meetings, held in June, 1997, in Lawrence, Kansas (Soller, 1997), and in May, 1998, in Champaign, Illinois (Soller, 1998a). This year's meeting was hosted by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey, from May 19 to 22, 1999, on the University of Wisconsin campus in Madison. As in the previous meetings, the objective was to foster informal discussion and exchange of technical information. When, based on discussions at the workshop, an attendee adopts or modifies a newly learned technique, the workshop clearly has met that objective. Evidence of learning and cooperation among participating agencies continued to be a highlight of the DMT workshops (see example in Soller, 1998b, and various papers in this volume). The meeting's general goal was to help move the state geological surveys and the USGS toward development of more cost-effective, flexible, and useful systems for digital mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. Through oral and poster presentations and special discussion sessions, emphasis was given to: 1) methods for creating and publishing map products (here, ìpublishingî includes Web-based release); 2) continued development of the National Geologic Map Database; and 3) progress toward building a standard geologic map data model. Especially to support the interest in map preparation and publication, five representatives of the GIS hardware and software vendor community were invited to participate. The three annual DMT workshops were coordinated by the AASG/USGS Data Capture Working Group, which was formed in August, 1996, to support the Association of American State Geologists and the USGS in their effort to build a National Geologic Map Database (see Soller and Berg, this volume, and http://ncgmp.usgs.gov/ngmdbproject/standards/datacapt/datacaptureWG.html ). The Working Group was formed because increased production efficiencies, standardization, and quality of digital map products were needed to help the Database, and the State and Federal geological surveys, provide more high-quality digital maps to the public.

Open-File Report

Digital mapping techniques '00, workshop proceedings - May 17-20, 2000, Lexington, Kentucky

Introduction: The Digital Mapping Techniques '00 (DMT'00) workshop was attended by 99 technical experts from 42 agencies, universities, and private companies, including representatives from 28 state geological surveys (see Appendix A). This workshop was similar in nature to the first three meetings, held in June, 1997, in Lawrence, Kansas (Soller, 1997), in May, 1998, in Champaign, Illinois (Soller, 1998a), and in May, 1999, in Madison, Wisconsin (Soller, 1999). This year's meeting was hosted by the Kentucky Geological Survey, from May 17 to 20, 2000, on the University of Kentucky campus in Lexington. As in the previous meetings, the objective was to foster informal discussion and exchange of technical information. When, based on discussions at the workshop, an attendee adopts or modifies a newly learned technique, the workshop clearly has met that objective. Evidence of learning and cooperation among participating agencies continued to be a highlight of the DMT workshops (see example in Soller, 1998b, and various papers in this volume). The meeting's general goal was to help move the state geological surveys and the USGS toward development of more cost-effective, flexible, and useful systems for digital mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) analysis. Through oral and poster presentations and special discussion sessions, emphasis was given to: 1) methods for creating and publishing map products (here, 'publishing' includes Web-based release); 2) continued development of the National Geologic Map Database; 3) progress toward building a standard geologic map data model; 4) field data-collection systems; and 5) map citation and authorship guidelines. Four representatives of the GIS hardware and software vendor community were invited to participate. The four annual DMT workshops were coordinated by the AASG/USGS Data Capture Working Group, which was formed in August, 1996, to support the Association of American State Geologists and the USGS in their effort to build a National Geologic Map Database (see Soller and Berg, this volume, and http://ncgmp.usgs.gov/ngmdbproject/standards/datacapt/). The Working Group was formed because increased production efficiencies, standardization, and quality of digital map products were needed to help the Database, and the State and Federal geological surveys, provide more high-quality digital maps to the public.

Open-File Report

Effects of changes in pumping on regional groundwater-flow paths, 2005 and 2010, and areas contributing recharge to discharging wells, 1990–2010, in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

A previously developed regional groundwater flow model was used to simulate the effects of changes in pumping rates on groundwater-flow paths and extent of recharge discharging to wells for a contaminated fractured bedrock aquifer in southeastern Pennsylvania. Groundwater in the vicinity of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, was found to be contaminated with organic compounds, such as trichloroethylene (TCE), in 1979. At the time contamination was discovered, groundwater from the underlying fractured bedrock (shale) aquifer was the main source of supply for public drinking water and industrial use. As part of technical support to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during the Remedial Investigation of the North Penn Area 7 Superfund site from 2000 to 2005, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed a model of regional groundwater flow to describe changes in groundwater flow and contaminant directions as a result of changes in pumping. Subsequently, large decreases in TCE concentrations (as much as 400 micrograms per liter) were measured in groundwater samples collected by the EPA from selected wells in 2010 compared to 2005‒06 concentrations. To provide insight on the fate of potentially contaminated groundwater during the period of generally decreasing pumping rates from 1990 to 2010, steady-state simulations were run using the previously developed groundwater-flow model for two conditions prior to extensive remediation, 1990 and 2000, two conditions subsequent to some remediation 2005 and 2010, and a No Pumping case, representing pre-development or cessation of pumping conditions. The model was used to (1) quantify the amount of recharge, including potentially contaminated recharge from sources near the land surface, that discharged to wells or streams and (2) delineate the areas contributing recharge that discharged to wells or streams for the five conditions. In all simulations, groundwater divides differed from surface-water divides, partly because of differences in stream elevations and because of geologic structure and pumping. In the 1990 and 2000 simulations, all recharge in and near the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 discharged to wells, but in the 2005 and 2010 simulations some recharge in this area discharged to streams, indicating possible discharge of contaminated groundwater from North Penn Area 7 sources to streams. As the amount of groundwater withdrawals by wells has declined since 1990, the area contributing recharge to wells in the vicinity of North Penn Area 7 has decreased. To determine the effect of changes in pumping on flow paths and possible flow-path-related contributions to the observed changes in spatial distribution of contaminants in groundwater from 2005 to 2010, the USGS conducted simulations using the previously developed regional groundwater-flow model using reported pumping and estimated recharge rates for 2005 and 2010. Flow paths from recharge at known contaminant source areas to discharge locations at wells or streams were simulated under steady-state conditions for the two periods. Simulated groundwater-flow paths shifted only slightly from 2005 to 2010 as a result of changes in pumping rates. These slight changes in groundwater-flow paths from known sources of contamination are not coincident with the spatial distribution of observed changes in TCE concentrations from 2005 to 2010, indicating that the decreases of TCE concentrations may be a result of other processes, such as source removal or degradation. Results of the simulations and the absence of increases in TCE-degradation-product concentrations indicate that the decreases of TCE concentrations observed in 2010 may be at least partly related to contaminant-source removal by soil excavation completed in 2005, although additional data would be needed to confirm this preliminary explanation.

Pennsylvania

Population trends of native Hawaiian forest birds, 1976–2008: the data and statistical analyses

The Hawaii Forest Bird Interagency Database Project has produced a centralized database of forest bird survey data collected in Hawai`i since the mid-1970s. The database contains over 1.1 million bird observation records of 90 species from almost 600 surveys on the main Hawaiian Islands—a dataset including nearly all surveys from that period. The primary objective has been to determine the status and trends of native Hawaiian forest birds derived from this comprehensive dataset. We generated species-specific density estimates from each survey and tested for changes in population densities over the longest possible temporal period. Although this cumulative data set seems enormous and represents the best available information on status of Hawaiian forest birds, detecting meaningful population distribution, density, and trends for forest birds in Hawai`i has been difficult. These population parameters are best derived from long-term, large-scale, standardized monitoring programs. The basis for long-term population monitoring in Hawai`i was established by the Hawaii Forest Bird Survey of 1976-1983 (Scott et al. 1986). Since then, however, only key areas have been resurveyed, primarily to monitor rare species. The majority of surveys since the early 1980s have been conducted by numerous, independent programs, resulting in some inconsistencies in methodology and sampling that in some cases has been intermittent and usually at limited scale (temporally or spatially). Thus, despite the consolidation of data into a centralized database, our understanding of population patterns is rather limited, especially at the regional and landscape scales. To rectify their deficiency, we present a framework to improve the understanding of forest bird trends in Hawai`i through an overarching monitoring design that allocates sampling at appropriate regional and temporal scales. Despite the limitations of the current monitoring effort, important generalities stand out vividly from the multiplicity of species-specific trends. Overall, in marginal habitats the Hawaiian passerine fauna continues to decline, with populations of most species shrinking in size and distribution. Since the early 1980s, 10 species that were rare at the time may now be extinct, although one, the `Alalā (Corvus hawaiiensis), survives in captivity. Dedicated search effort for the remaining nine species has been inadequate. Of the 22 species remaining, eight have declined, five appear to be stable, two are increasing, and the trend for seven species is unclear. On the bright side, native passerines, including endangered species, appear to be stable or increasing in areas with large tracts of native forest above 1,500 m elevation, even while decreasing in more fragmented or disturbed habitats, particularly at lower elevation. For example, all eight native species resident at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge have shown stable trends or significant increases in density over the long-term. Thus, native birds are ever more restricted to high-elevation forest and woodland refugia. It is these upland habitats that require sustained and all-out restoration to prevent further extinctions of Hawaiian forest birds.

Technical Report

Evolution of permeability and strength recovery of shear fracture under hydrothermal conditions

Geothermal energy is a clean and renewable resource that depends on the ability to move water through hot rock. In many locations, the ability to move water through rock requires the presence of extensive natural or human-made systems of fractures. However, these fracture systems are influenced by a variety of complex processes that occur at the temperature and pressure conditions found in geothermal reservoirs. To make geothermal systems more efficient, it is important to understand how these fractures evolve over time in response to these processes. This study explored how fractures in rock change under high-temperature and pressure conditions, like those found in geothermal reservoirs, through laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. In general fractures, tend to close due to pressure from the surrounding rock preventing the flow of water. One set of laboratory experiments revealed that fractures in granitic rock can weaken over time at elevated temperatures. These weak fractures can then slip slowly potentially keeping the fracture open for a longer period. This study also showed that at the highest temperature examined (250 °C) large differences between the chemical composition of the rock and the fluid moving through it could improve water flow temporarily likely due to the water dissolving parts of the rock. Flow rate predicted by models shows overall good agreement with the flow rate measured in our experiments but with some long time-scale variations that may be due to mechanical wear of the fracture surface. A second set of experiments found that, over the temperature range examined, the closure of fractures was caused by brittle failure driven by high stresses at points where fracture surfaces were in contact. This result suggests that fracture closure in geothermal reservoirs could be counteracted by maintaining high pore pressures. Additionally, we also tested a new method using electrical resistance to measure fracture closure in controlled systems with high precision.

Final Technical Report

Archaeology and public perception of a trans-scientific problem; disposal of toxic wastes in the unsaturated zone

Predicting the effects of toxic-waste disposal on the environment over periods of millenia to hundreds of millenia is a transscientific problem; that is, one not fully addressed by quantitative scientific and engineering endeavors. Archaeology is a pertinent adjunct to such predictions in several ways. First, and foremost, archaeological records demonstrate that delicate, as well as durable, objects buried in thick unsaturated zones of arid and semiarid environments may survive intact for millenia to tens of millenia. This successful preservation of Late Paleolithic to Iron Age artifacts provides independent support for the tentative favorable conclusions of earth scientists regarding the general utility of thick unsaturated zones for toxic-waste isolation. By analogy with the archaeological record, solidified toxic wastes of low solubility that are buried in arid unsaturated zones should remain isolated from the environment indefinitely; modern man presumably should be able to improve upon the techniques used by his ancestors to isolate and preserve their sacred and utilitarian objects. Second, archaeological evidence pertinent to the fate of objects buried in unsaturated zones-although qualitative in nature and subject to the limitations of arguments by analogy-is meaningful to the public and to the courts who, with some scientists and engineers, are reluctant to rely exclusively on computer-generated predictions of the effects of buried toxic wastes on the environment. Third, the archaeological record issues a warning that our descendants may intrude into our waste disposal sites and that we must therefore take special measures to minimize such entry and, if it occurs, to warn of the dangers by a variety of symbols. And fourth, archaeology provides a record of durable natural and manmade materials that may prove to be suitable for encapsulation of our wastes and from which we can construct warning markers that will last for millenia. For these four reasons, archaeologists must join with earth scientists, and other scientists and engineers, in addressing the likely fate of solidfied toxic wastes buried in the thick (200-600 m) unsaturated zones of arid and semiarid regions. Indeed, the input of archaeology might be crucial to public acceptance of even the most carefully chosen and technically sound waste repository.

Circular

Habitat suitability and ecological associations of two non-native ungulate species on the Hawaiian island of Lanai

The ability to effectively manage game species for specific conservation objectives is often limited by the scientific understanding of their distribution and abundance. This is especially true in Hawai‘i where introduced game mammals are poorly studied and have low value relative to native species in other states. We modeled the habitat suitability and ecological associations of European mouflon sheep (“mouflon”; Ovis musimon ) and axis deer ( Axis axis ) on the island of Lāna‘i using intensive aerial survey and environmental data that included climate, vegetation, and topographic variables. We conducted diagnostic tests on a suite of primarily categorical predictors and determined most were highly correlated. We therefore developed a suite of other spatial predictor layers with continuous variables. We tested several modeling approaches but settled on generalized linear models (GLM) and random GLMs because they could account for group size of animals and were based on curvilinear responses of each species to environmental variability. Both mammal species were habitat generalists showing little affinity to particular plant species or communities. Continuous predictors associated with plant productivity such as mean annual precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and cloud cover were important explanatory factors in a GLM of axis deer and a random GLM of mouflon habitat suitability. The presence of axis deer was also an important explanatory predictor for mouflon distribution, but deer were not influenced by mouflon distribution, indicating asymmetrical competition. Consequently, mouflon were restricted to lower elevation arid and very dry slopes, whereas axis deer were more broadly distributed throughout other upland environments of the island, but avoided steep terrain. Findings indicate that removal of a substantial portion of the more abundant axis deer population may lead to an increase in abundance and distribution of mouflon without containment. Resulting spatial models of game mammal habitat suitability will be employed to inform land use prioritization analyses and to help resolve long-standing conflicts between native species conservation and sustained-yield hunting.

Hawai'i

Assessment of Appalachian basin oil and gas resources: Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas Total Petroleum System

The Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas Total Petroleum System, which lies within the central and southern Appalachian basin, consists of the following five assessment units (AUs): (1) the Pocahontas Basin AU in southern West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, and southwestern Virginia; (2) the Central Appalachian Shelf AU in Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, and southern West Virginia; (3) the East Dunkard (Folded) AU in western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia; (4) the West Dunkard (Unfolded) AU in Ohio and adjacent parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia; and (5) the Appalachian Anthracite and Semi-Anthracite AU in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Only two of these assessment units were assessed quantitatively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in the National Oil and Gas Assessment in 2002. The USGS estimated the Pocahontas Basin AU and the East Dunkard (Folded) AU to contain a mean of about 3.6 and 4.8 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of undiscovered, technically recoverable gas, respectively. In general, the coal beds of the Carboniferous Coal-bed Gas Total Petroleum System (which are both the source rock and the reservoir) were deposited as peat together with their associated sedimentary strata in Mississippian and Pennsylvanian (Carboniferous) time. The generation of biogenic (microbial) gas probably began as soon as the peat deposits formed. Microbial gas generation is probably occurring at present to some degree throughout the Appalachian basin, wherever the coal beds are relatively shallow and wet. As a result of significant depth of burial, compaction, and coalification during the late Paleozoic and early Mesozoic, the coal beds were heated sufficiently to generate thermogenic gas (coalbed methane) in the eastern part of the Appalachian basin. Trap formation began with the deposition of the peat deposits during the Mississippian and continued into the Late Pennsylvanian and Permian, when strata of the Appalachian Plateaus were deformed during the Alleghanian orogeny. The seals are the connate waters that occupy fractures and larger pore spaces within the coal beds, as well as the fine-grained, siliciclastic sedimentary strata that are intercalated with the coal. The critical moment for the petroleum system occurred during the Alleghanian orogeny, when deformation resulted in the geologic structures in the eastern part of the Appalachian basin that enhanced fracture porosity within the coal beds. In places, burial by thrust sheets (thrust loading) in the Valley and Ridge physiographic province may have resulted in the additional generation of thermogenic coalbed methane in the Pennsylvania Anthracite region and in the semianthracite deposits of Virginia and West Virginia, although other explanations have been offered.

Appalachian basin

Restoration monitoring metric framework: Integrating innovative remote-sensing technologies: Comparisons between field and remotely sensed vegetation surveys of restored forested and grassland sites in Ohio

Restoration monitoring is generally perceived as costly and time-consuming, yet the concept of universal restoration monitoring metrics is trending for evaluation of restoration performance across spatial scales, project boundaries, and jurisdictions. Natural Resource Damage Assessment and Restoration (NRDAR) practitioners seek to restore natural resources injured by oil spills or hazardous substance releases into the environment. Therefore, a multiagency team [US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), US Department of the Interior (DOI), and US Department of Energy (DOE)] developed and field-tested a multitiered monitoring framework, illustrating a range of field and remote-sensing techniques and methodologies. The restoration monitoring framework and field demonstration offer a unique methodology to acquire and evaluate simultaneously collected, multiscale/multiplatform data. The result of this research provides new insights to (1) assist planning, implementing, and monitoring restoration progress and effectiveness; and (2) apply common monitoring methods, endpoints, and metrics to other types of ecosystem restoration initiatives. Although the aim was to inform monitoring and management of areas that had been injured, these methods could also be used to inform restoration monitoring practices in a broader context, benefiting environmental stewardship missions of all project partners.

Final Technical Report

An assessment of arthropod prey resources at Nakula Natural Area Reserve, a potential site of reintroduction for Kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys) and Maui `Alauahio (Parareomyza montana)

Hawaiian forest birds have declined dramatically since humans arrived in the archipelago. Birds from all foraging guilds have been affected but insectivorous species are currently at greatest risk of extinction. On the island of Maui, populations and ranges of the insectivorous kiwikiu (Maui parrotbill; Pseudonestor xanthophrys) and Maui ‘alauahio (Maui creeper; Paroreomyza montana) have declined significantly from historic levels primarily due to habitat loss, predation,disease, and food web disruption, leading to federal listings of endangered species and species of concern, respectively. Recovery plans for these birds include reestablishment of populations in parts of their former range. Nakula Natural Area Reserve on the leeward side of HaleakalāVolcano has been targeted for release of wild-caught or captive-bred individuals. The mesic, montane koa-‘ōhi‘a (Acacia koa-Metrosideros polymorpha) forest at Nakula has been heavily impacted through grazing by feral ungulates, but recent management actions to exclude these animals are promoting forest recovery. The objective of this study was to assess the arthropod prey base at Nakula in preparation for reintroductions of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio. To accomplish that goal, we compared arthropod abundances at Nakula to those at Hanawi Natural Area Reserve and Waikamoi Preserve, areas where kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio are currently found. We also identified diets of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio from fecal samples to better understand and evaluate the prey base at Nakula. Assessment methods included clipping branch tips to sample arthropods within the foliage of koa and ‘ōhi‘a, using traps to quantify arthropods on koa and ‘ōhi‘a bark surfaces, counting exit holes to quantify abundances of beetles (Coleoptera) within dead branches of koa, and measuring the density of arthropods within the stems of ‘ākala (Rubus hawaiiensis). The diet of kiwikiu was dominated by caterpillars (Lepidoptera larvae), which comprised 90% of all prey items for 50 adult birds and 98% of all prey for two nestlings. Caterpillars were also the most important prey for Maui ‘alauahio (43% for 104 adult birds) although spiders (Araneae, 16%), beetles (12%) and true bugs, planthoppers and psyllids (Hemiptera; 12%) were also important. Caterpillars were generally the most abundant type of arthropod in the foliage of koa and ‘ōhi‘a, although spiders, beetles and hemipterans were also common. Total arthropod biomass and caterpillar biomass at Nakula was as great, or greater, than that observed at Hanawi and Waikamoi per unit of foliage of both koa and ‘ōhi‘a. Spiders generally dominated the bark fauna on both koa and ‘ōhi‘a at all sites although isopods (Isopoda), millipedes (Myriapoda: Millipeda) and lacewings (Neuroptera) were also abundant at Waikamoi and Hanawi. Total arthropod biomass on bark, as well as the biomass of several individual taxa, was significantly lower at Nakula than the other sites. Our measurement of the density of beetle exit holes in dead koa branches found no difference between Nakula and Waikamoi. Finally, no difference existed in the abundance of arthropods (primarily caterpillars and moth pupae) within ‘ākala stems among sites. With the exception of bark surfaces, our results suggest that the arthropod prey base for birds on primary foraging substrates at Nakula is similar to that found at two sites within the current range of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio. However, our results should be viewed with caution because they are limited to the scale of individual branch, tree, or ‘ākala stem. To complete the assessment, our results should be scaled up to the landscape level by determining the density of each substrate within each site. Key arthropod prey of kiwikiu and Maui ‘alauahio are available at Nakula and, as habitat restoration continues, food abundance should increase to the point at which populations of these birds can be supported.

Hawaii

Use of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN and bacterial source tracking for development of the fecal coliform total maximum daily load (TMDL) for Christians Creek, Augusta County, Virginia

Impairment of surface waters by fecal coliform bacteria is a water-quality issue of national scope and importance. Section 303(d) of the Clean Water Act requires that each State identify surface waters that do not meet applicable water-quality standards. In Virginia, more than 175 stream segments are on the 1998 Section 303(d) list of impaired waters because of violations of the water-quality standard for fecal coliform bacteria. A total maximum daily load (TMDL) will need to be developed by 2006 for each of these impaired streams and rivers by the Virginia Departments of Environmental Quality and Conservation and Recreation. A TMDL is a quantitative representation of the maximum load of a given water-quality constituent, from all point and nonpoint sources, that a stream can assimilate without violating the designated water-quality standard. Christians Creek, in Augusta County, Virginia, is one of the stream segments listed by the State of Virginia as impaired by fecal coliform bacteria. Watershed modeling and bacterial source tracking were used to develop the technical components of the fecal coliform bacteria TMDL for Christians Creek. The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) was used to simulate streamflow, fecal coliform concentrations, and source-specific fecal coliform loading in Christians Creek. Ribotyping, a bacterial source tracking technique, was used to identify the dominant sources of fecal coliform bacteria in the Christians Creek watershed. Ribotyping also was used to determine the relative contributions of specific sources to the observed fecal coliform load in Christians Creek. Data from the ribotyping analysis were incorporated into the calibration of the fecal coliform model. Study results provide information regarding the calibration of the streamflow and fecal coliform bacteria models and also identify the reductions in fecal coliform loads required to meet the TMDL for Christians Creek. The calibrated streamflow model simulated observed streamflow characteristics with respect to total annual runoff, seasonal runoff, average daily streamflow, and hourly stormflow. The calibrated fecal coliform model simulated the patterns and range of observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations. Observed fecal coliform bacteria concentrations during low-flow periods ranged from 40 to 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters, and peak concentrations during stormflow periods ranged from 23,000 to 730,000 colonies per 100 milliliters. Additionally, fecal coliform bacteria concentrations were generally higher upstream and lower downstream. Simulated source-specific contributions of fecal coliform bacteria to instream load were matched to the observed contributions from the dominant sources, which were beaver, cats, cattle, deer, dogs, ducks, geese, horses, humans, muskrats, poultry, raccoons, and sheep. According to model results, a 96-percent reduction in the current fecal coliform load delivered from the watershed to Christians Creek would result in compliance with the designated water-quality goals and associated TMDL.

Virginia

Precipitation, Ground-water Hydrology, and Recharge Along the Eastern Slopes of the Sandia Mountains, Bernalillo County, New Mexico

The spatial and temporal distribution of recharge to carbonate and clastic aquifers along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Mountains was investigated by using precipitation, water-level, dissolved chloride, and specific-conductance data. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bernalillo County Public Works Division, conducted a study to assess ground-water conditions and provide technical data that could be used as a basis for management and future planning of eastern Bernalillo County water resources. The intent of the investigation was to improve the current understanding of subsurface mechanisms controlling recharge dynamics in a geologically complex aquifer system. In the Sandia Mountains, precipitation events are generally limited to snowfalls in winter months and monsoon rainfall in late summer. Monthly meteorological data from weather stations in the study area indicate that monsoon rainfall during July and August constitutes close to one-third of annual precipitation totals. Following precipitation and snowmelt events, daily ground-water level data show low-amplitude, long-duration peaks in hydrographs of wells north and west of the Tijeras Fault. Hydrographs of monthly and biannual water-level data from across the study area show seasonal variation and water-level fluctuations in excess of 30 ft during a period of below-average precipitation. Water level observations in 67 percent of wells showing drought-induced water-level declines rebounded to at or near predrought conditions within 6 months of return to normal climate conditions. Cross-correlation of annual hydrologic data shows aquifer response to periods of monsoon recharge to persist from 1 to 6 months following events. The lag time between precipitation input and response of water levels or solute concentrations was largest near the Tijeras and Gutierrez Faults. These results indicate regional faults hydrologically isolate the Tijeras Graben from groundwater recharge originating at high elevations along the eastern slopes of the Sandia Mountains. Recharge rates calculated by using the chloride-mass-balance method for five springs located at the base of the Sandia Mountains ranged from 1 to 23 percent of annual precipitation.

Scientific Investigations Report