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Dam failure analysis for the Lago de Matrullas Dam, Orocovis, Puerto Rico

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, completed a hydrologic and hydraulic study to assess the potential hazard to human life and property associated with the hypothetical failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam, located within the headwaters of the Río Grande de Manatí. The hydrologic study yielded outflow hydrographs and peak discharges for Lago de Matrullas and other subbasins in the Río Grande de Manatí hydrographic basin for three extreme rainfall events: (1) a 6-hour probable maximum precipitation (PMP) event, (2) a 24-hour PMP event, and (3) a 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event. The hydraulic study simulated the hypothetical dam failure of Lago de Matrullas using hypothetical flood hydrographs generated from the hydrologic study and selected dam breach parameters. The flood wave resulting from the failure was downstream-routed through the lower reaches of the Río Matrullas, the Río Toro Negro, and the Río Grande de Manatí for determination of water-surface profiles developed from the event-based hydrologic scenarios and “sunny day” (no precipitation) conditions. The Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) and the River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) computer programs, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were used for the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, respectively. The flow routing in the hydraulic analyses was performed using the unsteady-state flow module available in the HEC–RAS model. At the Lago de Matrullas Dam, inflow peak discharges of about 1,104 and 1,032 cubic meters per second (m 3 /s) were estimated with HEC–HMS for the 6- and 24-hour PMP events, respectively. The 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event simulation resulted in a peak discharge of about 418 m 3 /s. For the hydrologic analysis, no dam failure conditions were considered with the model. The results of the hydrologic simulations indicated, however, that the dam would be overtopped by the simulated 6- and 24-hour PMP events. Unlike the 6- and 24-hour PMP events, no overtopping was observed during the simulated 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event. For the dam-breach hydraulic analysis, the hypothetical failures of the Lago de Matrullas Dam included two possible failure modes: overtopping and piping. Overtopping failure was evaluated in this study for the 6- and 24- hour probable-maximum-precipitation breach scenarios. Piping dam failure was simulated for sunny day conditions and for the 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall scenario. Results from the simulated dam failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam using the HEC–RAS model for the 6- and 24-hour PMP events showed peak discharges at the dam of 3,149.33 and 3,604.70 m 3 /s, respectively. Dam failure during the 100-year-recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event resulted in a peak discharge of 2,103.12 m 3 /s directly downstream from the dam. Dam failure under sunny day conditions produced a peak discharge of 1,695.91 m 3 /s at the dam assuming the antecedent lake level was at the morning-glory spillway invert elevation. Flood-inundation maps prepared as part of the study depict the flood extent and provide valuable information for preparing an Emergency Action Plan. Results of the failure analysis indicate that a failure of the Lago de Matrullas Dam could cause flooding to many of the inhabited areas along stream banks from the Lago de Matrullas Dam to the mouth of the Río Grande de Manatí. Among the areas most affected are the low-lying regions in the vicinity of the towns of Ciales, Manatí, and Barceloneta. The delineation of the flood boundaries near the town of Barceloneta considered the effects of a levee constructed during 2000 at Barceloneta in the flood plain of the Río Grande de Manatí to provide protection against flooding to the near-by low-lying populated areas. The results showed overtopping can be expected in the aforementioned levee during 6- and 24-hour probable-maximum-precipitation dam failure scenarios. No overtopping of the levee was simulated, however, during dam failure scenarios under the 100-year recurrence, 24-hour rainfall event or sunny day conditions.

Orocovis

Selected topics of fluid mechanics

The fundamental equations of fluid mechanics are specific expressions of the principles of motion which are ascribed to Isaac Newton. Thus, the equations which form the framework of applied fluid mechanics or hydraulics are, in addition to the equation of continuity, the Newtonian equations of energy and momentum. These basic relationships are also the foundations of river hydraulics. The fundamental equations are developed in this report with sufficient rigor to support critical examinations of their applicability to most problems met by hydraulic engineers of the Water Resources Division of the United States Geological Survey. Physical concepts are emphasized, and mathematical procedures are the simplest consistent with the specific requirements of the derivations. In lieu of numerical examples, analogies, and alternative procedures, this treatment stresses a brief methodical exposition of the essential principles. An important objective of this report is to prepare the user to read the literature of the science. Thus, it begins With a basic vocabulary of technical symbols, terms, and concepts. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the language of modern fluid mechanics as it pertains to hydraulic engineering. The basic differential and integral equations of simple fluid motion are derived, and these equations are, in turn, used to describe the essential characteristics of hydrostatics and piezometry. The one-dimensional equations of continuity and motion are defined and are used to derive the general discharge equation. The flow net is described as a means of demonstrating significant characteristics of two-dimensional irrotational flow patterns. A typical flow net is examined in detail. The influence of fluid viscosity is described as an obstacle to the derivation of general, integral equations of motion. It is observed that the part played by viscosity is one which is usually dependent on experimental evaluation. It follows that the dimensionless ratios known as the Euler, Froude, Reynolds, Weber, and Cauchy numbers are defined as essential tools for interpreting and using experimental data. The derivations of the energy and momentum equations are treated in detail. One-dimensional equations for steady nonuniform flow are developed, and the restrictions applicable to the equations are emphasized. Conditions of uniform and gradually varied flow are discussed, and the origin of the Chezy equation is examined in relation to both the energy and the momentum equations. The inadequacy of all uniform-flow equations as a means of describing gradually varied flow is explained. Thus, one of the definitive problems of river hydraulics is analyzed in the light of present knowledge. This report is the outgrowth of a series of short schools conducted during the spring and summer of 1953 for engineers of the Surface Water Branch, Water Resources Division, U. S. Geological Survey. The topics considered are essentially the same as the topics selected for inclusion in the schools. However, in order that they might serve better as a guide and outline for informal study, the arrangement of the writer's original lecture notes has been considerably altered. The purpose of the report, like the purpose of the schools which inspired it, is to build a simple but strong framework of the fundamentals of fluid mechanics. It is believed that this framework is capable of supporting a detailed analysis of most of the practical problems met by the engineers of the Geological Survey. It is hoped that the least accomplishment of this work will be to inspire the reader with the confidence and desire to read more of the recent and current technical literature of modern fluid mechanics.

Water Supply Paper

Seismic slope-performance analysis: from hazard map to decision support system

In response to the growing recognition of engineers and decision-makers of the regional effects of earthquake-induced landslides, this paper presents a general approach to conducting seismic landslide zonation, based on the popular Newmark's sliding block analogy for modeling coherent landslides. Four existing models based on the sliding block analogy are compared. The comparison shows that the models forecast notably different levels of slope performance. Considering this discrepancy along with the limitations of static maps as a decision tool, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for seismic landslide analysis is proposed, which will support investigations over multiple scales for any number of earthquake scenarios and input conditions. Most importantly, the SDSS will allow use of any seismic landslide analysis model and zonation approach. Developments associated with the SDSS will produce an object-oriented model for encapsulating spatial data, an object-oriented specification to allow construction of models using modular objects, and a direct-manipulation, dynamic user-interface that adapts to the particular seismic landslide model configuration.

Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineeri

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in suspended-sediment samples from outfalls to Meandering Road Creek at Air Force Plant 4, Fort Worth, Texas, 2003-08

Meandering Road Creek is an intermittent stream and tributary to Lake Worth, a reservoir on the West Fork Trinity River on the western edge of Fort Worth, Texas. U.S. Air Force Plant 4 (AFP4) is on the eastern shore of Woods Inlet, an arm of Lake Worth. Meandering Road Creek gains inflow from several stormwater outfalls as it flows across AFP4. Several studies have characterized polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the water and sediments of Lake Worth and Meandering Road Creek; sources of PCBs are believed to originate primarily from AFP4. Two previous U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports documented elevated PCB concentrations in surficial sediment samples from Woods Inlet relative to concentrations in surficial sediment samples from other parts of Lake Worth. The second of these two previous reports also identified some of the sources of PCBs to Lake Worth. These reports were followed by a third USGS report that documented the extent of PCB contamination in Meandering Road Creek and Woods Inlet and identified runoff from outfalls 4 and 5 at AFP4 as prominent sources of these PCBs. This report describes the results of a fourth study by the USGS, in cooperation with the Lockheed Martin Corporation, to investigate PCBs in suspended-sediment samples in storm runoff from outfalls 4 and 5 at AFP4 following the implementation of engineering controls designed to potentially alleviate PCB contamination in the drainage areas of these outfalls. Suspended-sediment samples collected from outfalls 4 and 5 during storms on March 2 and November 10, 2008, were analyzed for selected PCBs. Sums of concentrations of 18 reported PCB congeners (Sigma PCBc) in suspended-sediment samples collected before and after implementation of engineering controls are compared. At both outfalls, the Sigma PCBc before engineering controls was higher than the Sigma PCBc after engineering controls. The Sigma PCBc in suspended-sediment samples collected at AFP4 before and after implementation of engineering controls also is compared to the threshold effect concentration (TEC), the concentration below which adverse effects to benthic biota rarely occur. Sigma PCBc exceeded the TEC for 75 percent of the samples collected at outfall 4 and 67 percent of the samples collected at outfall 5 before the implementation of engineering controls. Sigma PCBc did not exceed the TEC in samples collected at either outfall 4 or outfall 5 after the implementation of engineering controls. The relative prominence of 10 selected PCB congeners was evaluated by graphical analysis of ratios of individual concentrations of the 10 PCB congeners to the sum of these PCB congeners. An overall decrease in concentrations of PCB congeners at outfalls 4 and 5 after implementation of engineering controls, as well as a shift in prominence from lighter, less chlorinated congeners to a heavier, more chlorinated congener might have resulted from the implementation of engineering controls. Because of the small number of samples collected and lack of runoff and precipitation data to evaluate comparability of sampling conditions before and after implementation of engineering controls, all conclusions are preliminary.

Texas

Latest Holocene evolution and human disturbance of a channel segment in the Hudson River Estuary

The latest Holocene sedimentary record of a cohesive channel and subtidal shoal in the lower Hudson River Estuary was examined to elucidate natural (sea-level rise, sediment transport) and anthropogenic (bulkheading, dredging) influences on the recent morphodynamic evolution of the system. To characterize the seafloor and shallow subbottom, ??? 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles (chirp) were collected within a 20-km reach of the estuary and correlated with sediment lithologies provided by eight vibracores recovered along seismic lines. Sediment geochronology with 137Cs and 14C was used to estimate intermediate and long-term sedimentation rates, respectively, and historical bathymetric data were analyzed to identify regional patterns of accretion and erosion, and to quantify changes in channel geometry and sediment volume. The shoal lithosome originated around 4 ka presumably with decelerating eustatic sea level rise during the latest Holocene. Long-term sedimentation rates on the shoal (2.3-2.6 mm/yr) are higher than in the channel (2 mm/yr) owing to hydrodynamic conditions that preferentially sequester suspended sediment on the western side of the estuary. As a result, the shoal accretes oblique to the principal axis of tidal transport, and more rapidly than the channel to produce an asymmetric cross-section. Shoal deposits consist of tidally bedded muds and are stratified by minor erosion surfaces that seismic profiles reveal to extend for 10s of meters to kilometers. The frequency and continuity of these surfaces suggest that the surficial shoal is catastrophically stripped on decadal-centennial time scales by elevated tidal flows; tidal erosion maintains the shoal at a uniform depth below sea level and prevents it from transitioning to an intertidal environment. Consequently, the long-term sedimentation rate approximates the rate of sea-level rise in the lower estuary (1-3 mm/yr). After the mid 1800s, the natural geometry of the lower Hudson River Estuary changed rapidly in response to engineering works that forced the channel to self-deepen. Analysis of historical bathymetric data indicates that the channel lost an estimated 3 ?? 106 tons of sediment between ca. 1939 and 2002 (50,000 tons/yr average) by subaqueous erosion, increasing in depth by as much as 4 m in places. Erosion appears to have been concurrent with systematic bulkheading of the shoreline after ca. 1865, which decreased the estuary surface area by ??? 19% overall. Evidently, self-deepening of the channel is a morphodynamic adjustment to reestablish equilibrium cross-sectional area, yet the state of this change locally and elsewhere in the estuary is unknown. Subaqueous erosion documented in this study is a significant source of sediment with implications to the sediment budget and environmental quality of the Hudson River Estuary. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marine Geology

Hilbert-Huang transform analysis of dynamic and earthquake motion recordings

This study examines the rationale of Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) for analyzing dynamic and earthquake motion recordings in studies of seismology and engineering. In particular, this paper first provides the fundamentals of the HHT method, which consist of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert spectral analysis. It then uses the HHT to analyze recordings of hypothetical and real wave motion, the results of which are compared with the results obtained by the Fourier data processing technique. The analysis of the two recordings indicates that the HHT method is able to extract some motion characteristics useful in studies of seismology and engineering, which might not be exposed effectively and efficiently by Fourier data processing technique. Specifically, the study indicates that the decomposed components in EMD of HHT, namely, the intrinsic mode function (IMF) components, contain observable, physical information inherent to the original data. It also shows that the grouped IMF components, namely, the EMD-based low- and high-frequency components, can faithfully capture low-frequency pulse-like as well as high-frequency wave signals. Finally, the study illustrates that the HHT-based Hilbert spectra are able to reveal the temporal-frequency energy distribution for motion recordings precisely and clearly.

Journal of Engineering Mechanics

Accuracies achieved in classifying five leading world crop types and their growth stages using optimal Earth Observing-1 Hyperion hyperspectral narrowbands on Google Earth Engine

As the global population increases, we face increasing demand for food and nutrition. Remote sensing can help monitor food availability to assess global food security rapidly and accurately enough to inform decision-making. However, advances in remote sensing technology are still often limited to multispectral broadband sensors. Although these sensors have many applications, they can be limited in studying agricultural crop characteristics such as differentiating crop types and their growth stages with a high degree of accuracy and detail. In contrast, hyperspectral data contain continuous narrowbands that provide data in terms of spectral signatures rather than a few data points along the spectrum, and hence can help advance the study of crop characteristics. To better understand and advance this idea, we conducted a detailed study of five leading world crops (corn, soybean, winter wheat, rice, and cotton) that occupy 75% and 54% of principal crop areas in the United States and the world respectively. The study was conducted in seven agroecological zones of the United States using 99 Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion hyperspectral images from 2008–2015 at 30 m resolution. The authors first developed a first-of-its-kind comprehensive Hyperion-derived Hyperspectral Imaging Spectral Library of Agricultural crops (HISA) of these crops in the US based on USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) reference data. Principal Component Analysis was used to eliminate redundant bands by using factor loadings to determine which bands most influenced the first few principal components. This resulted in the establishment of 30 optimal hyperspectral narrowbands (OHNBs) for the study of agricultural crops. The rest of the 242 Hyperion HNBs were redundant, uncalibrated, or noisy. Crop types and crop growth stages were classified using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and support vector machines (SVM) in the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform using the 30 optimal HNBs (OHNBs). The best overall accuracies were between 75% to 95% in classifying crop types and their growth stages, which were achieved using 15–20 HNBs in the majority of cases. However, in complex cases (e.g., 4 or more crops in a Hyperion image) 25–30 HNBs were required to achieve optimal accuracies. Beyond 25–30 bands, accuracies asymptote. This research makes a significant contribution towards understanding modeling, mapping, and monitoring agricultural crops using data from upcoming hyperspectral satellites, such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology mission (formerly HyspIRI mission) and the recently launched HysIS (Indian Hyperspectral Imaging Satellite, 55 bands over 400–950 nm in VNIR and 165 bands over 900–2500 nm in SWIR), and contributions in advancing the building of a novel, first-of-its-kind global hyperspectral imaging spectral-library of agricultural crops (GHISA: www.usgs.gov/WGSC/GHISA).

Remote Sensing

An Assessment of Hydrology, Fluvial Geomorphology, and Stream Ecology in the Cardwell Branch Watershed, Nebraska, 2003-04

An assessment of the 16.3-square-mile Cardwell Branch watershed characterized the hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, and stream ecology in 2003-04. The study - performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Lincoln, Nebraska, and the Lower Platte South Natural Resources District - focused on the 7.7-square-mile drainage downstream from Yankee Hill Reservoir. Hydrologic and hydraulic models were developed using the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydraulic Engineering Center. Estimates of streamflow and water-surface elevation were simulated for 24-hour-duration design rainstorms ranging from a 50-percent frequency to a 0.2-percent frequency. An initial HEC-HMS model was developed using the standardized parameter estimation techniques associated with the Soil Conservation Service curve number technique. An adjusted HEC-HMS model also was developed in which parameters were adjusted in order for the model output to better correspond to peak streamflows estimated from regional regression equations. Comparisons of peak streamflow from the two HEC-HMS models indicate that the initial HEC-HMS model may better agree with the regional regression equations for higher frequency storms, and the adjusted HEC-HMS model may perform more closely to regional regression equations for larger, rarer events. However, a lack of observed streamflow data, coupled with conflicting results from regional regression equations and local high-water marks, introduced considerable uncertainty into the model simulations. Using the HEC-RAS model to estimate water-surface elevations associated with the peak streamflow, the adjusted HEC-HMS model produced average increases in water-surface elevation of 0.2, 1.1, and 1.4 feet for the 50-, 1-, and 0.2-percent-frequency rainstorms, respectively, when compared to the initial HEC-HMS model. Cross-sectional surveys and field assessments conducted between November 2003 and March 2004 indicated that Cardwell Branch and its unnamed tributary appear to be undergoing incision (the process of downcutting) (with three locations showing 2 or more feet of streambed incision since 1978) that is somewhat moderated by the presence of grade controls and vegetation along the channel profile. Although streambank failures were commonly observed, 96 percent of the surveyed cross sections were classified as stable by planar and rotational failure analysis-a disconnect that may have been the result of assumed soil properties. Two process-based classification systems each indicated that the reaches within the study area were incising and widening, and the Rosgen classification system characterized the streams as either type E6 or B6c. E6 channels are hydraulically efficient with low width-depth ratios, low to moderate sinuosity, and gentle to moderately steep slopes. B6c channels typically are incised with low width-depth ratios maintained by riparian vegetation, low bedload transport, and high washload transport. No obvious nickpoints (interruption or break in slope) were observed in the thalweg profile (line of maximum streambed descent), and the most acute incision occurred immediately downstream from bridges and culverts. Nine water-quality samples were collected between August 2003 and November 2004 near the mouth of the watershed. Sediment-laden rainfall-runoff substantially affected the water quality in Cardwell Branch, leading to greater biochemical and chemical oxygen demands as well as increased concentrations of several nutrient, bacteriological, sediment, and pesticide constituents. The storage of rainfall runoff in Yankee Hill Reservoir may prolong the presence of runoff-related constituents downstream. Across the study area, there was a lack of habitat availability for aquatic biota because of low dissolved oxygen levels and low streamflows or dry channels. In August 2003, the aquatic community near the mouth of

Scientific Investigations Report

Analysis of street sweepings, Portland, Oregon

A brief study involving collection and analysis of street sweepings was undertaken to provide the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers with data on physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of dust and dirt accumulating on Portland streets. Most of the analyses selected were based on the pollutant loads predicted by the Storage, Treatment, Overflow, and Runoff Model (STORM). Five different basins were selected for sampling, and samples were collected three times in each basin. Because the literature reports no methodology for analysis of dust and dirt, the analytical methodology is described in detail. Results of the analyses are summarized in table 1.

Oregon

A subset of CyberShake ground-motion time series for response-history analysis

This manuscript describes a subset of CyberShake numerically simulated ground motions that were selected and vetted for use in engineering response-history analyses. Ground motions were selected that have seismological properties and response spectra representative of conditions in the Los Angeles area, based on disaggregation of seismic hazard. Ground motions were selected from millions of available time series and were reviewed to confirm their suitability for response-history analysis. The processes used to select the time series, the characteristics of the resulting data, and the provided documentation are described in this article. The resulting data and documentation are available electronically.

California

Development of a global seismic risk model

Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Earthquake Spectra

Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Risk Map

The Global Earthquake Risk Map (v2018.1) comprises four global maps. The main map presents the geographic distribution of average annual loss (USD) normalized by the average construction costs of the respective country (USD/m2 due to ground shaking in the residential, commercial and industrial building stock, considering contents, structural and non-structural components. The normalized metric allows a direct comparison of the risk between countries with widely different construction costs. It does not consider the effects of tsunamis, liquefaction, landslides, and fires following earthquakes. The loss estimates are from direct physical damage to buildings due to shaking, and thus damage to infrastructure or indirect losses due to business interruption are not included. The Global Earthquake Hazard Map depicts the geographic distribution of the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years, computed for reference rock conditions (shear wave velocity of 760-800 m/s). The Global Exposure Map depicts the geographic distribution of residential, commercial and industrial buildings. The Global Seismic Fatalities Map depicts an estimate of average annual human losses due to earthquake-induced structural collapse of buildings. The results for human losses do not consider indirect fatalities such as those from post­ earthquake epidemics. The average annual losses and number of buildings are presented on a hexagonal grid, with a spacing of 0.30 x 0.34 decimal degrees (approximately 1,000 km2 at the equator). The average annual losses were computed using the event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis developed by the GEM Foundation. The seismic hazard, exposure and vulnerability models employed in these calculations were provided by national institutions, or developed within the scope of regional programs or bilateral collaborations. These global maps and the underlying databases are based on best available and publicly accessible datasets and models. Due to possible limitations in the model, regions portrayed with low risk may experience potentially damaging earthquakes. The GEM Risk Map is intended to be a dynamic product, which will be updated when new datasets and models become available. Updated versions of the hazard, exposure, and average annual losses will be released on a regular basis. Additional metrics for each country can be explored at globalquakemodel.org/gem.

Report

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Miscellaneous Field Studies Map

National assessment of shoreline change, part 4: Historical coastal cliff retreat along the California coast

Coastal cliff retreat, the landward migration of the cliff face, is a chronic problem along many rocky coastlines in the United States. As coastal populations continue to grow and community infrastructures are threatened by erosion, there is increased demand for accurate information regarding trends and rates of coastal cliff retreat. There is also a need for a comprehensive analysis of cliff retreat that is consistent from one coastal region to another. To meet these national needs, the U.S. Geological Survey is conducting an analysis of historical coastal cliff retreat along open-ocean rocky coastlines of the conterminous United States and parts of Hawaii, Alaska, and the Great Lakes. One purpose of this work is to develop standard repeatable methods for mapping and analyzing coastal cliff retreat so that periodic updates of coastal erosion can be made nationally that are systematic and internally consistent. This report on the California Coast is an accompaniment to a report on long-term sandy shoreline change for California. This report summarizes the methods of analysis, interprets the results, and provides explanations regarding long-term rates of cliff retreat. Neither detailed background information on the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Project nor detailed descriptions of the geology and geomorphology of the California coastline are presented in this report. The reader is referred to the shoreline change report (Hapke et al., 2006) for this type of background information. Cliff retreat evaluations are based on comparing one historical cliff edge digitized from maps, with a recent cliff edge interpreted from lidar (Light Detection and Ranging) topographic surveys. The historical cliff edges are from a period ranging from 1920-1930, whereas the lidar cliff edges are from either 1998 or 2002. Long-term (~70- year) rates of retreat are calculated using the two cliff edges. The rates of retreat presented in this report represent conditions from the 1930s to 1998, and are not intended for predicting future cliff edge positions or rates of retreat. Due to the geomorphology of much of California's rocky coast (high-relief, steep slopes with no defined cliff edge) as well as to gaps in both the historical maps and lidar data, we were able to derive two cliff edges and therefore calculate cliff retreat rates for a total of 353 km. The average rate of coastal cliff retreat for the State of California was -0.3±0.2 m/yr, based on rates averaged from 17,653 individual transects measured throughout all areas of California's rocky coastline. The average amount of cliff retreat was 17.7 m over the 70-year time period of our analysis. Retreat rates were generally lowest in Southern California where coastal engineering projects have greatly altered the natural coastal system. California permits shoreline stabilization structures where homes, buildings or other community infrastructure are imminently threatened by erosion. While seawalls and/or riprap revetments have been constructed in all three sections of California, a larger proportion of the Southern California coast has been protected by engineering works, due, in part, to the larger population pressures in this area.

California

LIDAR & SASW technologies for geotechnical earthquake engineering

Geotechnical engineering methods are validated through comparison of field‐data of surface deformations and sub‐surface state properties. Recent advances in non‐invasive surface imaging and sub‐surface stiffness characterization allow us to rapidly and inexpensively map these spatial and physical properties in two and three dimensions. In this paper, we discuss new technologies used at the United States Geological Survey (USGS), ground‐based LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) used to create ultra high‐resolution three‐dimensional digital terrain models, and surface wave methods used to characterize soil stiffness properties. The power of LIDAR technology in earthquake engineering is its ability to rapidly capture the extremely high detail of failure morphologies, to view them in orientations not previously possible, and to permanently archive them for the engineering research community. The power of surface wave methods, like Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves (SASW), is their ability to non‐invasively and rapidly characterize the stiffness of the ground, to be relatively lightweight and efficient in deployment; and to accurately profile difficult materials such as gravely deposits and stiff soils where conventional methods are not practical. Three active‐source SASW systems used by the USGS are described here, a single‐source harmonic wave vibration system; a large parallel‐array harmonic wave source system; and a seafloor harmonic wave source system. LIDAR and SASW methods allow researchers to directly relate detailed surface damage with the shear wave velocity properties of the ground. LIDAR imagery and movies, and SASW datasets can be viewed at http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/geotech.

Conference Paper

Evaluation of simulated ground motions using probabilistic seismic demand analysis: CyberShake (ver. 15.12) simulations for Ordinary Standard Bridges

There is a need for benchmarking and validating simulated ground motions in order for them to be utilized by the engineering community. Such validation may be geared towards a specific ground motion simulation method, a target engineering application, and a specific location; the validation presented herein focuses on a bridge engineering application in southern California. Catalogs of simulated ground motions representing a 200,000-year forecast are selected from the Southern California Earthquake Center CyberShake version 15.12 database for five sites in Southern California (~20,000 unscaled ground motions per site). They are used in Non-Linear Time History Analysis (NLTHA) of four Ordinary Standard Bridge structures. For each site, these data are used to obtain simulation-based Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) hazard curves. These are compared against EDP hazard curves that are constructed using conventional methods based on empirical models, i.e., using recorded ground motions through Incremental Dynamic Analysis and integration over the Intensity Measure (IM) hazard curve. The two sets of simulation-based and conventional EDP hazard curves are compared at various return periods. To further account for the differences between simulated and recorded ground motions, direct comparisons are also made between IM hazard curves for simulated and recorded catalogs, as well as the EDP versus IM data obtained from NLTHA of the bridges. We observe that CyberShake simulates motions that yield similar EDP values compared to empirical data for shorter return periods. For longer return periods, however, EDPs from the simulation-based analysis tend to be lower than the EDPs obtained from utilizing recorded ground motions for short-period bridges, while the opposite is the case for long-period bridges. It is recommended that validation efforts go beyond IM levels and also include comparisons of the relations between IMs and EDPs. Finally, site-specific relations are proposed that correlate the ratio between the two types of EDPs (simulation-based and conventional) with the hazard level, shallow site condition, and site basin depth.

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering Journal

Analysis of trends in water-quality data for water conservation area 3A, the Everglades, Florida

Rainfall and water-quality data bases from the South Florida Water Management District were used to evaluate water quality trends at 10 locations near or in Water Conservation Area 3A in The Everglades. The Seasonal Kendall test was applied to specific conductance, orthophosphate-phosphorus, nitrate-nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, and total nitrogen regression residuals for the period 1978-82. Residuals of orthophosphate and nitrate quadratic models, based on antecedent 7-day rainfall at inflow gate S-11B, were the only two constituent-structure pairs that showed apparent significant (p < 0.05) increases in constituent concentrations. Elimination of regression models with distinct residual patterns and data outlines resulted in 17 statistically significant station water quality combinations for trend analysis. No water quality trends were observed. The 1979 Memorandum of Agreement outlining the water quality monitoring program between the Everglades National Park and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stressed collection four times a year at three stations, and extensive coverage of water quality properties. Trend analysis and other rigorous statistical evaluation programs are better suited to data monitoring programs that include more frequent sampling and that are organized in a water quality data management system. Pronounced areal differences in water quality suggest that a water quality monitoring system for Shark River Slough in Everglades National Park include collection locations near the source of inflow to Water Conservation Area 3A. (Author 's abstract)

Florida