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Life history and propagation of the endangered dromedary pearlymussel (Dromus dromas) (Bivalvia:Unionidae)

The reproduction, demography, and propagation of the endangered dromedary pearlymussel (Dromus dromas) (Lea, 1834) were studied in the Clinch and Powell rivers, Tennessee. Viable populations of the dromedary pearlymussel now occur only in the Clinch and Powell rivers; the species has been extirpated from the remaining portions of its range in the Cumberland and Tennessee river drainages. Females are long-term winter brooders, and they are gravid from October to June. Glochidia are contained in conglutinates that are red to white and resemble freshwater leeches or flatworms. Conglutinates are 20 to 40 mm long and are released through the excurrent aperture. Estimates of fecundity based on 7 gravid females collected from the Clinch River were 55,110 to 253,050 glochidia/mussel. The ages of 66 valves of D. dromas were determined by thin-sectioning and ranged from 3 to 25 y. Annual growth averaged 5 mm/y until age 10 and decreased to ???1.2 mm/ y thereafter. Nineteen fish species were tested for suitability as hosts for glochidia. Ten were confirmed as hosts through induced infestations of glochidia: black sculpin (Cottus baileyi), greenside darter (Etheostoma blennioides), fantail darter (Etheostoma flabellare), snubnose darter (Etheostoma simoterum), tangerine darter (Percina aurantiaca), blotchside logperch (Percina burtoni), logperch (Percina caprodes), channel darter (Percina copelandi), gilt darter (Percina evides), and Roanoke darter (Percina roanoka). Juveniles produced from these hosts were cultured in dishes held in nonrecirculating aquaculture systems containing fine sediment (<105 ??m) and were fed the green alga Nannochloropsis oculata every 2 d. Survival of 2810 newly metamorphosed juveniles was 836 (29.7%) after 1 to 2 wk.

Journal of the North American Benthological Societ

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research

Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears

Wildlife ecologists often use the Kaplan-Meier procedure or Cox proportional hazards model to estimate survival rates, distributions, and magnitude of risk factors. The Andersen-Gill formulation (A-G) of the Cox proportional hazards model has seen limited application to mark-resight data but has a number of advantages, including the ability to accommodate left-censored data, time-varying covariates, multiple events, and discontinuous intervals of risks. We introduce the A-G model including structure of data, interpretation of results, and assessment of assumptions. We then apply the model to 22 years of radiotelemetry data for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) of the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC c ) and multi-model inference to assess a number of potentially useful predictive models relative to explanatory covariates for demography, human disturbance, and habitat. Using the most parsimonious models, we generated risk ratios, hypothetical survival curves, and a map of the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across the recovery zone. Our results were in agreement with past studies of mortality factors for Yellowstone grizzly bears. Holding other covariates constant, mortality was highest for bears that were subjected to repeated management actions and inhabited areas with high road densities outside Yellowstone National Park. Hazard models developed with covariates descriptive of foraging habitats were not the most parsimonious, but they suggested that high-elevation areas offered lower risks of mortality when compared to agricultural areas.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Estimation of successful breeding pairs for wolves in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Under the Endangered Species Act, documenting recovery and federally mandated population levels of wolves (Canis lupus) in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) requires monitoring wolf packs that successfully recruit young. United States Fish and Wildlife Service regulations define successful breeding pairs as packs estimated to contain an adult male and female, accompanied by ???2 pups on 31 December of a given year. Monitoring successful breeding pairs will become more difficult following proposed delisting of NRM wolves; alternatives to historically intensive methods, appropriate to the different ecological and regulatory context following delisting, are required. Because pack size is easier to monitor than pack composition, we estimated probability a pack would contain a successful breeding pair based on its size for wolf populations inhabiting 6 areas in the NRM. We also evaluated the extent to which differences in demography of wolves and levels of human-caused mortality among the areas influenced the probability of packs of different sizes would contain successful breeding pairs. Probability curves differed among analysis areas, depending primarily on levels of human-caused mortality, secondarily on annual population growth rate, and little on annual population density. Probabilities that packs contained successful breeding pairs were more uniformly distributed across pack sizes in areas with low levels of human mortality and stable populations. Large packs in areas with high levels of human-caused mortality and high annual growth rates had relatively high probabilities of containing breeding pairs whereas those for small packs were relatively low. Our approach can be used by managers to estimate number of successful breeding pairs in a population where number of packs and their sizes are known. Following delisting of NRM wolves, human-caused mortality is likely to increase, resulting in more small packs with low probabilities of containing breeding pairs. Differing contributions of packs to wolf population growth based on their size suggests monitoring successful breeding pairs will provide more accurate insights into population dynamics of wolves than will monitoring number of packs or individuals only.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Estimating transition probabilities for stage-based population projection matrices using capture-recapture data

In stage—based demography, animals are often categorized into size (or mass) classes, and size—based probabilities of surviving and changing mass classes must be estimated before demographic analyses can be conducted. In this paper, we develop two procedures for the estimation of mass transition probabilities from capture—recapture data. The first approach uses a multistate capture—recapture model that is parameterized directly with the transition probabilities of interest. Maximum likelihood estimates are then obtained numerically using program SURVIV. The second approach involvesa modification of Pollock's robust design. Estimation proceeds by conditioning on animals caught in a particualr class at time i, and then using closed models to estimate the number of these that are alive in other classes at i + 1. Both methods are illustrated by application to meadow vole, Microtus pennsylvanicus, capture—recapture data. The two methods produced reasonable estimates that were similar. Advantages of these two approaches include the directness of estimation, the absence of need for restrictive assumptions about the independence of survival and growth, the testability of assumptions, and the testability of related hypotheses of ecological interest (e.g., the hypothesis of temporal variation in transition probabilities).

Ecology

Population dynamics and bioenergetics of a fossorial herbivore, Thomomys talpoides (Rodentia: Geomyidae), in a spruce-fir sere

Studies of the bioenergetics of the northern pocket gopher, Thomomys talpoides , are coupled with data on demography, activity budgets, and microclimates to model the energy requirements of individuals and populations in the Wasatch Mountains of Utah during 1976-1979. Metabolic rates during rest increased linearly with decreasing ambient temperature, but burrowing metabolic rates (16.3 mL O 2 • h -1 • g -9.75 ) were independent of both temperature and physical properties of the soil. Radio-telemetry studies indicated that free-ranging gophers are active =50% of each day. Conservative estimates of true energy consumption were calculated using estimates of habitat-specific minimum daily burrowing requirements. Rates of burrowing measured in the laboratory were either ∞ 0.0 or ∞ 2.0 cm/min. The low burrowing rate was observed when the soil was frozen or saturated with water, as would occur in the field in early winter and in spring, respectively. Gophers burrowed through soil at the study site at an average rate of ∞ 1.5 cm/min. Belowground food energy densities at gopher foraging depth declined from 24.6 to 3.2 J/cm 3 along a successional gradient (subalpine forb meadow to Engelmann spruce dominated forest). We conclude that individual gophers are food limited within the climax spruce seral stage. Further, daily energy costs associated with reproduction in females may exceed the belowground energy supply available in intermediate seral stages (aspen and subalpine fir). Reduction of burrowing rates for any reason will affect gophers in the late seral stages proportionately more than those resident in the meadow. The peak gopher densities recorded (from 62 individuals/ha in the meadow to 2 individuals/ha in spruce forest) support these inferences. Detailed demographic information was obtained only in the meadow seral stage. Adult survivorship was lower in winter than in summer and varied greatly between years (0.18-0.70 yr -1 ). Juvenile survivorship from weaning through the first year was comparable to adult annual rates. The fertility rate was 3.75 young • female -1 • yr -1 . The energy supply and demand analyses indicate that the growth of Thomomys talpoides populations in the early seral stages is seldom directly limited by the amount of food present. From our demographic, environmental, and autecological studies we conclude that stochastic events associated with weather affect energy acquisition (burrowing) rates, and thus survivorship. In montane environments, such events may prevent populations from attaining sizes at which territorial behavior would hypothetically limit further increases. The energy flow through the meadow population at moderate to high )1976-1977) densities (at least 1100 MJ • ha -1 • yr -1 ) indicates that pocket gophers are proficient energy movers relative to non-fossorial small mammals. Subalpine T. talpoides populations appear commonly to attain such densities. More than 30% of the annual primary productivity allocated to belowground parts of meadow forbs may be consumed by gophers.

Ecological Monographs

Effects of canine parvovirus on gray wolves in Minnesota

Long-term effects of disease on wild animal population demography is not well documented. We studied a gray wolf (Canis lupus) population in a 2,060-km 2 area of Minnesota for 15 years to determine its response to canine parvovirus (CPV). The CPV had little effect ( P > 0.05) on wolf population size while epizootic during 1979-83. However, after CPV became enzootic, percentage of pups captured during summer-fall 1984-93 and changes in subsequent winter wolf numbers were each inversely related to the serological prevalence of CPV in wolves captured during July-November ( r 2 = 0.39 and 0.72, P = 0.05 and < 0.01, respectively). The CPV antibody prevalence in adult wolves increased to 87% in 1993 (r2 = 0.28, P = 0.05). However, because population level remained stable, CPV-induced mortality appeared to compensate for other mortality factors such as starvation. We -predict that the winter wolf population will decline when CPV prevalence in adults consistently exceeds 76%. The CPV may become important in limiting wolf populations.

Minnesota

Habitat relationships and nest site characteristics of cavity-nesting birds in cottonwood floodplains

We examined habitat relationships and nest site characteristics for 6 species of cavity-nesting birds--American kestrel ( Falco sparverius ), northern flicker ( Colaptes auratus ), red-headed woodpecker ( Melanerpes erythrocephalus ), black-capped chickadee ( Parus atricapillus ), house wren ( Troglodytes aedon ), and European starling ( Sturnus vulgaris )--in a mature plains cottonwood ( Populus sargentii ) bottomland along the South Platte River in northeastern Colorado in 1985 and 1986. We examined characteristics of cavities, nest trees, and the habitat surrounding nest trees. Density of large trees (>69 cm dbh), total length of dead limbs ≥10 cm diameter (TDLL), and cavity density were the most important habitat variables; dead limb length (DLL), dbh, and species were the most important tree variables; and cavity height, cavity entrance diameter, and substrate condition at the cavity (live vs. dead) were the most important cavity variables in segregating cavity nesters along habitat, tree, and cavity dimensions, respectively. Random sites differed most from cavity-nesting bird sites on the basis of dbh, DLL, limb tree density (trees with ≥1 m dead limbs ≥10 cm diameter), and cavity density. Habitats of red-headed woodpeckers and American kestrels were the most unique, differing most from random sites. Based on current trends in cottonwood demography, densities of cavity-nesting birds will probably decline gradually along the South Platte River, paralleling a decline in DLL, limb tree density, snag density, and the concurrent lack of cottonwood regeneration.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Breeding patterns and reproductive success of California sea otters

Following commercial exploitation in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ) populations in Alaska, British Columbia, and Washington recovered at 17-20% a year, yet the California population increased at only 5% a year. This slow rate of increase is perplexing, given that unoccupied and apparently favorable habitats occur throughout the sea otter's California range, and higher growth rates occurred among northern sea otter populations. Better knowledge of the demography of the California population is important in understanding these disparate population growth rates. We studied the reproductive biology and behavior of 53 tagged female sea otters from 1985 to 1991 in Monterey Bay, California. During the study, 136 pups were born to these females. Observations of each female enabled us to determine exact or estimated pup birth dates, which we used to calculate lengths of gestation, pup dependency, and reproductive cycle. Seasonal trends in pupping, in the proportion of adult females with pups, and in pup separations from their mothers were relatively uniform throughout the year. The average interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was 198 days, the interbirth interval was 407 days, and estimated birth rate was 0.90/year for all adult females. For females that pupped annually (did not lose undetected newborns), the average interbirth interval was 342 days, given an estimated birth rate of 1.07/year. Length of the reproductive cycle increased with increasing length of prior pup dependency. However, the interval between separation from pup and subsequent birth was delayed among females that prematurely lost their pups. The average length of dependency for pups that survived to weaning was 166 days, but ranged from 120 to 280 days. The maximum preweaning survival rate was 0.60-0.65, less than values measured or inferred for some Alaskan populations. Most pups that did not survive to weaning were lost within a month of birth. The probability of successfully weaning pups and the length of dependency increased ( P = 0.077) with mothers' ages, thus indicating that reproductive success may increase among females with greater mothering experience. The high preweaning pup mortality we observed probably accounts for much of the relatively slow growth rate of the California sea otter population.

California

Breeding season ecology: Chapter 6 in Status, ecology and conservation of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (RMRS-GTR-60)

The willow flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii ) breeds across much of the conterminous United States and in portions of extreme southern Canada. As might be expected in such a wide-ranging species, willow fly- catchers in different portions of the range exhibit differences in appearance, song, and ecological characteristics. The intent of this chapter is to provide information on the breeding-season ecology of the southwestern subspecies, E.t. extimus . However, most ecological studies to date have dealt with other willow flycatcher subspecies. Relatively few studies have been published on E.t. extimus , and much of what is currently known is presented in unpublished literature (e.g., agency and consulting firm reports); these sources are relied upon heavily in this chapter. This chapter does not address habitat characteristics in depth, other than for nest sites (refer to A Survey of Current Breeding Habitats for additional details). Although southwestern willow flycatchers are frequent victims of nest parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds ( Molothrus ater ), this chapter will not address the topic of parasitism and its effect on breeding ecology (refer to The Ecology of Brown-headed Cowbirds and their Effects on Southwestern Willow Flycatchers for details). Readers interested in more details of willow flycatcher biology and ecology are encouraged to read McCabe’s (1991) treatise, which is based on over a decade of willow flycatchers research in Wisconsin and includes comparisons with other populations and subspecies.

General Technical Report

Potential effects of GPS transmitters on greater sage-grouse survival in a post-fire landscape

Rigorous monitoring and evaluation of wildlife population performance because of management or disturbance often relies upon the handling and marking of animals. Such studies must assume that marking animals does not affect their behavior or demography. We examined survival of greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus post wildfire in southeastern Oregon, USA. We observed extremely high mortality rates early in the study and questioned if our global positioning systems (GPS) transmitters were negatively affecting survival of adult greater sage-grouse. Thus, in situ we captured and randomly assigned additional grouse to either a GPS or VHF transmitter and examine patterns of mortality and estimated survival to evaluate if there were in fact transmitter effects on this important vital rate. Our results indicated that regardless of instrument type large wildfire had negative effects on monthly survival the first year after the fire. However, point estimates indicated that greater sage-grouse fitted with GPS transmitters had approximately 5% lower annual survival than VHF tagged birds, but although there was relatively large overlap in confidence limits, likely caused by small sample sizes. Further research is needed to disentangle potential confounding effects of GPS transmitters on survival impacts of grouse in association with large disturbance.

Oregon

US GeoData

US GeoData tapes are computer tapes which contain cartographic data in digital form. The 1:2,000,000-scale data are available in two forms. The graphic form can be used to generate computer-plotted maps. The content and scale of the maps can be varied to meet your needs. The topologically-structured form of US GeoData is suitable for input to geographic information systems for use in spatial analysis and geographic studies. Both forms must be used in conjunction with appropriate software. US GeoData tapes offer convenience, accuracy, flexibility, and cost effectiveness to many map users. Business, industry, and government users who are involved in network planning and analysis, transportation, demography, land use, or any activity where data can be related to, or plotted on a map will find US GeoData a valuable resource.

General Information Product

Fort Collins Science Center- Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch : Integrating social, behavioral, economic and biological sciences

The Fort Collins Science Center's Policy Analysis and Science Assistance (PASA) Branch is a team of approximately 22 scientists, technicians, and graduate student researchers. PASA provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and biological analyses in the context of human-natural resource interactions. Resource planners, managers, and policymakers in the U.S. Departments of the Interior (DOI) and Agriculture (USDA), State and local agencies, as well as international agencies use information from PASA studies to make informed natural resource management and policy decisions. PASA scientists' primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to advance performance in policy relevant research areas. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context, involve difficult to access populations, require knowledge of both natural/biological science in addition to social science, and require the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these difficult contexts, PASA researchers apply traditional and state-of-the-art social science methods drawing from the fields of sociology, demography, economics, political science, communications, social-psychology, and applied industrial organization psychology. Social science methods work in concert with our rangeland/agricultural management, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of PASA's research is to enhance natural resource management, agency functions, policies, and decision-making. Our research is organized into four broad areas of study.

Fact Sheet

Annual Report for 2003 Wild Horse Research and Field Activities

As stated in the Wild Horse Fertility Control Field Trial Plan, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has an immediate need for a safe, effective contraceptive agent to assist in the management of the large number of wild horses on western rangelands. The BLM and the U.S. Geological Survey-Biological Resources Discipline (USGS/BRD) are testing the immunocontraceptive agent Porcine Zonae Pellucida (PZP) in field trials with three free-roaming herds of western wild horses. Extensive research has already been conducted on the safety, efficacy, and duration of PZP applications in both domestic and feral horses on eastern barrier islands and in some select trials I with wild horses in Nevada managed by the BLM. However, significant questions remain concerning the effects of I PZP application at the population level in the wild, as well as effects at the individual level on behavior, social structure, and harem dynamics of free-ranging animals. These questions are best answered with field trials on wild horse herds under a tight research protocol. The ultimate goal is to provide the BLM with the protocols and information necessary to begin using fertility control to regulate population growth rates in wild horse herds on a broader scale. Fertility control is intended to assist the conventional capture, removal, and adoption process as a I means of controlling excess numbers of wild horses and burros, and to greatly reduce the adoption costs and numbers of animals handled. Fertility control is not intended to totally replace the removal and adoption process. The USGSIBRD began assisting the BLM with field trials of immunocontraceptive fertility control of wild horses in early 2001. The first PZP treatments were applied during gathers at the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range in September 2001, and the Little Book Cliffs Wild Horse Range, Colorado, in July 2002. At those gathers, 5 horses were treated in the Pryor Mountain WHR, and 23 were treated in the Little Book Cliffs WHR with PZP. These initial treatments were followed by booster injections in 2002. The second injection is required in order to raise, and I maintain, the titer levels of mares high enough to be considered contracepted. By the end of 2002, 13 horses on the Pryor Mountain WHR had received both injections, as had 11 horses in the Little Book Cliffs WHR. In 2003, intensive research efforts were carried out by the USGSIBRD at three field locations; Pryor Mountain WHR, Little I Book Cliffs WHR, and McCullough Peaks Wild Horse Management Area. The work at these sites during this I calendar year included treatment of wild horse mares with PZP in the Pryor herd and Little Book Cliffs herd, development and implementation of behavioral research to investigate potential affects of PZP treatment, continued tracking of demography and foal production in all three herds, and early phases of investigating aerial population estimation survey techniques. Detailed descriptions of these research topics can be found in the Wild Horse and Burro Management Strategic Research Plan and the Wild Horse Fertility Control Field Trial Plan. Field work in 2003 was conducted by USGSIBRD and BLM staff with the assistance of many dedicated individuals. See I Acknowledgments for more details. This report is meant to highlight the activities of the 2003 field season, as well as to provide a general overview of the data collected. More in-depth data analysis will be conducted following the conclusion of each I phase of the research project, and in many cases will not be possible until several seasons of data are collected.

Open-File Report

Trip report: pilot study of factors linking watershed function and coastal ecosystem health in American Samoa

Coral reef resources in the territory of American Samoa face significant problems from overfishing, non-point source pollution, global warming, and continuing population growth and development. The islands are still relatively isolated relative to other parts of the Pacific and have managed to avoid some of the more devastating invasive species that have reached other archipelagoes. As a result, there are opportunities for collaborative and integrative research and monitoring programs to help restore and maintain biodiversity and functioning natural ecosystem in the archipelago. We found that the “Ridge to Reef” paradigm already exists in American Samoa, with a high degree of interagency cooperation and efficient use of limited resources already taking place in the Territory. USGS may be able to make contributions as a partner organization in the Coral Reef Advisory Group (CRAG) through deployment of sediment monitoring instrumentation to supplement stream monitoring by the American Samoa Environmental Protection Agency, by providing high resolution vegetation and land-use maps of main islands, by providing additional support to the American Samoa Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources and the National Park Service for monitoring of invasive species, by working with members of CRAG to initiate sediment transport studies on Samoan reefs, and by developing new projects on the effects of bacterial contamination and pollutants on coral reef physiology and demography.

Open-File Report

Status review of the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and British Columbia

The Marbled Murrelet ( Brachyramphus marmoratus ) is a small, diving seabird inhabiting inshore waters of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. This species feeds on small, schooling fishes and zooplankton, and nests primarily on the moss-covered branches of large, old-growth conifers, and also, in some parts of its range, on the ground. We reviewed existing information on this species to evaluate its current status in the northern part of its range—Alaska (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada). Within the southern part of its range (Washington, Oregon, and California, U.S.), the Marbled Murrelet was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1993, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) needed information on the species throughout its range for ESA deliberations. We compiled published information on the conservation status, population biology, foraging ecology, population genetics, population status and trends, demography, marine and nesting habitat characteristics, threats, and ongoing conservation efforts for Marbled Murrelets in Alaska and British Columbia. We conducted a new genetic study using samples from a segment of the range that had not been included in previous studies (Washington, Oregon) and additional nuclear intron and microsatellite markers. We also analyzed available at-sea survey data from several locations for trend. To understand the reasonableness of the empirical trend data, we developed demographic models incorporating stochasticity to discern what population trends were possible by chance. The genetic studies substantially confirmed previous findings on population structure in the Marbled Murrelet. Our present work finds three populations: (1) one comprising birds in the central and western Aleutian Islands; (2) one comprising birds in central California; and (3) one comprising birds within the center of the range from the eastern Aleutians to northern California. Our knowledge of genetic structure within this central population is limited and it requires additional study. Compiling available abundance information, we estimated that in the recent past, Marbled Murrelets in Alaska numbered on the order of 1 million birds. We were unable to generate a similar estimate for historical population size in British Columbia. Using trend information from at-sea surveys spanning a wide geographic range in Alaska, murrelet numbers declined significantly at five of eight trend sites at annual rates of -5.4 to -12.7 percent since the early 1990s. Applying these rates of decline to the historical population estimate, the current murrelet population in Alaska is projected to be on the order of 270,000 birds. This represents an overall population decline of about 70 percent during the past 25 years. In British Columbia, available trend data indicate that murrelet populations there have experienced similar declines. We updated a recent (2002) population estimate for British Columbia, concluding that there are now between 54,000 and 92,000 murrelets in British Columbia. The rates of decline we observed are within, but at the high end of, a range of rates expected by chance. Given that declines were estimated for sites over essentially the entire northern range of the species, there is cause for concern about the species’ status. In their marine habitats, Marbled Murrelets overlap with salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) gillnetting operations in British Columbia and in Alaska (especially in Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska), and annual bycatch mortality is likely in the low thousands per year, although bycatch rates are difficult to measure. The species’ inshore distribution coincides with high levels of vessel traffic and makes them especially vulnerable to both chronic oil pollution and to catastrophic spills (e.g., the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill [EVOS] in south-central Alaska, which is estimated to have killed 12,000 to 15,000 murrelets). In their forested nesting habitats, Marbled Murrelets have lost about 15 percent of their suitable nesting habitat in Southeast Alaska, and 33 to 49 percent in British Columbia, from industrial-scale logging within the past half century. Increased predation also may be a threat to murrelet populations, related to fragmentation and edge effects from logging and development, and recent population increases observed for some important murrelet predators, including Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ), Common Ravens ( Corvus corax ), and Steller’s Jays ( Cyanocitta stelleri ). Nesting habitat losses cannot explain the declines observed in areas where industrial logging has not occurred on a large scale (e.g., Prince William Sound) or at all (Glacier Bay). The apparent change in population size and rates of decline reported for the Marbled Murrelet are large, and we therefore considered alternative explanations and precedents for changes of similar magnitude in other marine wildlife populations in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The declines are likely real, and related to combined and cumulative effects from climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem (most likely the 1977 regime shift) and human activities (logging, gillnet bycatch, oil pollution). Much uncertainty about the decline could be alleviated by continuing to repeat boat surveys in Prince William Sound and lower Cook Inlet, and by repeating the boat survey of Southeast Alaska that was conducted in 1994. This survey used a statistically sound design and covered the region that has been and likely remains the center of the species’ abundance. Important questions remain to be addressed about methods for measuring population status and change, adult mortality (major sources, density dependence, seasonal concordance), and the movements of wintering populations.

Alaska, British Columbia

A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

A stochastic, stage-based population model was developed to describe the life history and forecast the population dynamics of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four separate regions of Florida. This population model includes annual variability in survival and reproductive rates, demographic stochasticity, effects of changes in warm-water capacity, and catastrophes. Further, the model explicitly accounts for uncertainty in parameter estimates. This model is meant to serve as a flexible tool for use in assessments relevant to management decision making, and was used in the State of Florida's recent biological status review. The parameter estimates and model structure described herein reflect our understanding of manatee demography at the time that this status review was completed. In the Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions, the model predicts that the populations will increase over time until warm-water capacity is reached, at which point growth will taper off. In the Atlantic region, the model predicts a stable or slightly increasing population over the next decade or so, and then a decrease as industrial warm-water capacity is lost. In the Southwest region, the model predicts a decline over time, driven by high annual mortality in the short-term and exacerbated by loss of industrial warm-water winter refuges over the next 40 years. Statewide, the likelihood of a 50% or greater decline in three manatee generations was 12%; the likelihood of a 20% or greater decline in two generations was 56%. These declines are largely driven by the anticipated loss of warm-water capacity, especially in the Atlantic and Southwest regions. The estimates of probability of extinction within 100 years were 11.9% for the Southwest region, 0.6% for the Northwest, 0.04% for the Atlantic, and <0.02% for the Upper St. Johns. The estimated probability that the statewide population will fall below 1000 animals within 100 years was 2.3%. Thus, while the estimated probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

Open-File Report