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USGS1981

Exploration decisions and firms in the mineral industries

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and results of past exploration enter future exploration decisions. A proposed decision model is presented that is consistent with a set of primitive probabilistic assumptions associated with deposit size distributions and discoverability. Analysis of optimal field exploration strategy showed the likely firm responses to alternative exploration taxes and effects on the distribution of future discoveries. Examination of the probabilistic elements of the decision model indicates that changes in firm expectations associated with the distribution of deposits cannot be totally offset by changes in economic variables.

Energy Economics↗

USGS2022

Major point and nonpoint sources of nutrient pollution to surface water have declined throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Understanding drivers of water quality in local watersheds is the first step for implementing targeted restoration practices. Nutrient inventories can inform water quality management decisions by identifying shifts in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balances over space and time while also keeping track of the likely urban and agricultural point and nonpoint sources of pollution. The Chesapeake Bay Program's Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST) provides N and P balance data for counties throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and these data were leveraged to create a detailed nutrient inventory for all the counties in the watershed from 1985–2019. This study focuses on three primary watershed nutrient balance components—agricultural surplus, atmospheric deposition, and point source loads—which are thought to be the leading anthropogenic drivers of nutrient loading trends across the watershed. All inputs, outputs, and derived metrics (n=53) like agricultural surplus and nutrient use efficiency, were subjected to short- and long-term trend analyses to discern how sources of pollution to surface water have changed over time. Across the watershed from 1985–2019, downward trends in atmospheric deposition were ubiquitous. Though there are varying effects, long-term declines in agricultural surplus were observed, likely because nutrients are being managed more efficiently. Multiple counties' point source loads declined, primarily associated with upgrades at major cities that discharge treated wastewater directly to tidal waters. Despite all of these positive developments, recent increases in agricultural surpluses from 2009–2019 highlight that water quality gains may soon be reversed in many agricultural areas of the basin. Besides tracking progress and jurisdictional influence on pollution sources, the nutrient inventory can be used for retrospective water quality analysis to highlight drivers of past improvement/degradation of water quality trends and for decision makers to develop and track their near- and long-term watershed restoration strategies.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

USGS2000

Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Program: Coastal Characterization: an overview and update

The U.S. Geological Surveys Biological Resources Division (BRD) mission is to provide leadership in gathering, analyzing, and disseminating biological information as support for sound management of the Nation's natural resources. Since becoming operational in October of 1996 through the transfer of programs from various bureaus within the Department of the Interior, the BRD, in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local partners, has begun research, inventory and monitoring, information sharing, and technology transfer. Through these activities, the BRD is fostering an understanding of biological systems and their benefits to society, and providing the essential scientific support and technical assistance required for management and policy decisions. The role of BRD' s National Wetlands Research Center (NWRC) in Lafayette, Louisiana, with project offices in Baton Rouge, LA and Gulf Breeze, FL, is to provide leadership in research and development related to the Nation's natural resources for the Southeast. The research focuses on wetlands ecology, animal ecology, and the development and application of spatial analysis techniques for natural resource related studies. Current geographic information system (GIS) technologies in use at NWRC are designed to provide natural resource managers with the on-line data and computerized techniques necessary to make informed decisions. Major GIS activities at NWRC include: compilation and analysis of digital databases for monitoring of natural resources; integration and transfer of databases with existing digital databases from various sources into a comprehensive GIS; and development of multifunctional decision support systems for natural resource managers using these data. NWRC is also an active participant in the National Information Infrastructure (NIT), in particular the National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) and the National Biological Information Infrastructure (NBTI), which will facilitate the dissemination of research results and other knowledge and information gained from these efforts. This summary and the three summaries that follow provides an overview and update of a four year study entitled, Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Program: Coastal Characterization.

Minerals Management Service↗

USGS2024

Closing the conservation gap in the sagebrush biome: Spatial targeting and coordination are needed for conservation to keep pace with sagebrush losses

Core sagebrush areas (CSAs), patches of high sagebrush ecological integrity, continue to decline despite significant conservation and restoration investments across the sagebrush biome. Historically, conservation decisions in the biome have been driven by wildlife species-specific demands, but increasing recognition of the scale of threats and the pace of ecosystem degradation has compelled a shift towards threat-based ecosystem management. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate the scale of conservation implementation relative to the rate of degradation or loss from specific threats to the biome to assess whether a conservation deficit exists. To this end, we: 1) quantified and compared the average hectares of conservation practices implemented annually relative to the hectares of CSA loss attributed to each threat; 2) evaluated the relative amount of conservation actions in core sagebrush areas, growth opportunity areas, and other rangeland areas; and 3) assessed how much additional conservation may be needed to stop CSA declines. We then quantified how better spatial targeting and enhanced coordination might reduce the total additional amount of future conservation needed, and evaluated how an influx of resources can close the conservation gap, or the deficit between the conservation needed to offset annual loss and degradation and the capacity for conservation implementation. We found that current rates of conservation (e.g., hectares treated annually) are markedly lower than rates of CSA loss (∼10% of average annual loss). Furthermore, most conservation actions, ∼90% for some treatment types, occurred outside of CSAs likely reducing the efficacy of these conservation actions at retaining and restoring intact sagebrush rangelands. Additionally, we found that conservation efforts will need to increase by more than an order of magnitude (at least 10x) annually to halt CSA declines. However, through better spatial targeting of conservation actions, the increase in conservation needed to stop CSA loss could be reduced by 70% or more. This analysis demonstrates the divergent futures that may await the sagebrush biome pending key decisions regarding conservation targeting, stakeholder cooperation, and the strategic addition of resources.

Rangeland Ecology and Management↗

USGS2005

Sediment-transport investigations of the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, 1999 through 2001: Data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport

The upper Yellowstone River in Montana is an important State and national water resource, providing recreational, agricultural, and commercial benefits. Floods in 1996 and 1997, with recorded peak discharges having recurrence intervals close to 100 years, caused substantial streambank erosion and hill- slope mass wasting. Large quantities of sand-, gravel-, and cobble-sized material entrained by the flood flows became flood-bar deposits, creating a source of sediment available for transport during future floods. The flood damage and resulting sedimentation raised concerns about potential streambank-stabilization projects and how the river and riparian corridor might be managed in the future. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Park Conservation District, the Montana Department of Transportation, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, investigated sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River near Livingston from 1999 through 2001 as part of a cumulative effects study to provide a scientific basis for future river management decisions. The purpose of this report is to present the results of data collection, analysis, and simulation of sediment transport for the upper Yellowstone River. The study area included a 13.5-mile study reach of the upper Yellowstone River where substantial sediment transport occurred in 1996 and 1997. In this study area, the upper Yellowstone River is a high gradient, coarse-bed stream having a slope of about 0.0028 foot per foot or more than 14 feet per mile. The study area drains about 3,551 square miles, and runoff results primarily from snowmelt during the spring and summer months. As part of sediment-transport investigations, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed river cross sections, characterized streambed-material particle size using particle counts and sieve analyses, and collected bedload- and suspended-sediment data during three runoff seasons (1999-2001). Data were collected for stream discharges that ranged from 2,220 cubic feet per second (typical of pre- and post-runoff discharge) to 25,100 cubic feet per second (about 125 percent of bankfull discharge). The distribution of streambed-material particle size was determined, and sediment-transport curves for bedload discharge, suspended-sediment discharge, and total-sediment discharge were developed. The threshold values of streamflow and average stream velocity needed for initiation of bedload transport for selected sediment-size classes showed that little to no bedload was transported for an average stream velocity below about 3 feet per second, and the only particle size transported as bedload at that velocity was sand. Over the range of stream discharges sampled and with silt- and finer-sized particles excluded, bedload discharge averaged about 18 percent of the total-sediment discharge, equal to bedload discharge plus suspended-sediment discharge. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, bedload was, respectively, less than about 2 percent and about 30 percent of the total-sediment discharge. Over the range of stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge averaged about 48 percent, where the total suspended-sediment discharge included sand-, silt- and finer-sized particles. At the lowest and highest stream discharges sampled, the sand-sized part of the total suspended-sediment discharge was, respectively, less than about 16 percent and about 50 percent of the total suspended-sediment discharge. The sediment-transport curves were compared to curves for selected sites in the western United States having drainage areas ranging from 21 square miles to over 20,000 square miles. Daily sediment loads transported at bankfull discharge were calculated for each site and results were plotted in relation to drainage area. Results based on the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that the estimated daily bedload transported at bankfull discharge in the upper Yellowstone River exceeded the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains and is similar in magnitude to that for selected sites in Alaska having braided channels and glacial and snowmelt runoff. Similar comparisons for suspended sediment indicate that daily suspended-sediment load at bankfull discharge is relatively high in the upper Yellowstone River, plotting slightly above the envelope line that bounds the upper end of the data for other selected sites in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Sediment data were used to develop individual transport equations for seven size classes of sediment ranging from small cobbles to very fine sand. A step-wise regression procedure relating sediment discharge to important hydraulic variables showed that average stream velocity was the only significant variable at the 95-percent confidence level. Bedload and suspended-sediment data and equations indicate that more sand is transported for a given velocity than any other particle size, and very little sand-size sediment load is transported below an average stream velocity of about 2.5 feet per second. Transport of coarser-sized sediment (limited to bedload) becomes very little for an average velocity less than about 3.5 feet per second. Results for the 1999-2001 data-collection period indicate that sediment transport in the upper Yellowstone River tends to be limited more by the transport capacity of the stream (capacity or transport limited), than to the availability of sediment in the watershed (supply limited). Sediment data collected and analyzed were used to simulate sediment transport in the study reach using the BRIdge Stream Tube model for Alluvial River Simulation, or BRI-STARS computer model. The model was calibrated and verified using selected data from historical runoff periods. Simulated total-sediment loads, on a reach-averaged basis, were in good agreement with the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 2-year flood hydrograph but were considerably smaller for the total-sediment loads determined from the transport curve for the 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood hydrographs. The differences probably were largely due to the inability of the model to simulate streambank erosion, hillslope mass-wasting, and other channel-widening processes, which had supplied substantial quantities of sediment to the channel during the 1996 and 1997 floods, and probably continued to contribute to the sediment load in the subsequent years (1999-2001) when the data were collected. Furthermore, the transport curve was applied beyond the measured data for the highest discharges, and may thus be unreliable. Also, the transport curve derived from only limited data may not apply over the full duration of the hydrograph and sediment might be transported over only a portion of the hydrograph, especially for rivers like the upper Yellowstone where snowmelt runoff predominates. The true sediment discharge is, therefore, unknown and might be closer to the simulated values than to the values calculated from the transport curve.

Montana↗

USGS1981

Design of exploration and minerals-data-collection programs in developing areas

This paper considers the practical problem of applying economic analysis to designing minerals exploration and data collection strategies for developing countries. Formal decision rules for the design of government exploration and minerals-data-collection programs are derived by using a minerals-industry planning model that has been extended to include an exploration function. Rules derived are applicable to centrally planned minerals industries as well as market-oriented minerals sectors. They pertain to the spatial allocation of exploration effort and to the allocation of activities between government and private concerns for market-oriented economies. Programs characterized by uniform expenditures, uniform information coverage across regions, or uniform-density grid drilling progrmas are shown to be inferior to the strategy derived. Moreover, for market-oriented economies, the economically optimal mix in exploration activities between private and government data collection would require that only private firms assess local sites and that government agencies carry out regional surveys.

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences↗

USGS2011

Assessing power of large river fish monitoring programs to detect population changes: the Missouri River sturgeon example

In 2003, the US Army Corps of Engineers initiated the Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP) to monitor pallid sturgeon and the fish community of the Missouri River. The power analysis of PSPAP presented here was conducted to guide sampling design and effort decisions. The PSPAP sampling design has a nested structure with multiple gear subsamples within a river bend. Power analyses were based on a normal linear mixed model, using a mixed cell means approach, with variance estimates from the original data. It was found that, at current effort levels, at least 20 years for pallid and 10 years for shovelnose sturgeon is needed to detect a 5% annual decline. Modified bootstrap simulations suggest power estimates from the original data are conservative due to excessive zero fish counts. In general, the approach presented is applicable to a wide array of animal monitoring programs.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

USGS2005

A Generalized Approach for the Interpretation of Geophysical Well Logs in Ground-Water Studies:Theory and Application

Quantitative analysis of geophysical logs in ground-water studies often involves at least as broad a range of applications and variation in lithology as is typically encountered in petroleum exploration, making such logs difficult to calibrate and complicating inversion problem formulation. At the same time, data inversion and analysis depend on inversion model formulation and refinement, so that log interpretation cannot be deferred to a geophysical log specialist unless active involvement with interpretation can be maintained by such an expert over the lifetime of the project. We propose a generalized log-interpretation procedure designed to guide hydrogeologists in the interpretation of geophysical logs, and in the integration of log data into ground-water models that may be systematically refined and improved in an iterative way. The procedure is designed to maximize the effective use of three primary contributions from geophysical logs: (1) The continuous depth scale of the measurements along the well bore; (2) The in situ measurement of lithologic properties and the correlation with hydraulic properties of the formations over a finite sample volume; and (3) Multiple independent measurements that can potentially be inverted for multiple physical or hydraulic properties of interest. The approach is formulated in the context of geophysical inversion theory, and is designed to be interfaced with surface geophysical soundings and conventional hydraulic testing. The step-by-step procedures given in our generalized interpretation and inversion technique are based on both qualitative analysis designed to assist formulation of the interpretation model, and quantitative analysis used to assign numerical values to model parameters. The approach bases a decision as to whether quantitative inversion is statistically warranted by formulating an over-determined inversion. If no such inversion is consistent with the inversion model, quantitative inversion is judged not possible with the given data set. Additional statistical criteria such as the statistical significance of regressions are used to guide the subsequent calibration of geophysical data in terms of hydraulic variables in those situations where quantitative data inversion is considered appropriate.

Ground Water↗

USGS2008

A prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle, Washington, area

Empirical rainfall thresholds and related information form the basis of a prototype system for forecasting landslides in the Seattle area. The forecasts are tied to four alert levels, and a decision tree guides the use of thresholds to determine the appropriate level. From analysis of historical landslide data, we developed a formula for a cumulative rainfall threshold (CT), P 3 = 88.9 − 0.67 P 15 , defined by rainfall amounts in millimeters during consecutive 3 d (72 h) periods, P 3 , and the 15 d (360 h) period before P 3 , P 15 . The variable CT captures more than 90% of historical events of three or more landslides in 1 d and 3 d periods recorded from 1978 to 2003. However, the low probability of landslide occurrence on a day when the CT is exceeded at one or more rain gauges (8.4%) justifies a low-level of alert for possible landslide occurrence, but it does trigger more vigilant monitoring of rainfall and soil wetness. Exceedance of a rainfall intensity-duration threshold I = 82.73 D −1.13 , for intensity, I (mm/hr), and duration, D (hr), corresponds to a higher probability of landslide occurrence (30%) and forms the basis for issuing warnings of impending, widespread occurrence of landslides. Information about the area of exceedance and soil wetness can be used to increase the certainty of landslide forecasts (probabilities as great as 71%). Automated analysis of real-time rainfall and subsurface water data and digital quantitative precipitation forecasts are needed to fully implement a warning system based on the two thresholds.

Washington↗

USGS2003

The U.S. Geological Survey land remote sensing program

The U.S. Geological Survey has been a provider of remotely sensed information for decades. As the availability and use of satellite data has grown, USGS has placed increasing emphasis on expanding the knowledge about the science of remote sensing and on making remotely sensed data more accessible. USGS encourages widespread availability and distribution of these data and through its programs, encourages and enables a variety of research activities and the development of useful applications of the data. The science of remote sensing has great potential for assisting in the monitoring and assessment of the impacts of natural disasters, management and analysis of environmental, biological, energy, and mineral investigations, and supporting informed public policy decisions. By establishing the Land Remote Sensing Program (LRS) as a major unit of the USGS Geography Program, USGS has taken the next step to further increase support for the accessibility, understanding, and use of remotely sensed data. This article describes the LRS Program, its mission and objectives, and how the program has been structured to accomplish its goals.

Cartography and Geographic Information Science↗

USGS2006

EMMMA: A web-based system for environmental mercury mapping, modeling, and analysis

Mercury in our environment - in our air, water, soil, and especially our food - poses significant hazards to human health, particularly for developing fetuses and young children. Because of the importance of this issue and the length of time it has been studied, large and complex data sets of mercury concentrations in various media and associated ancillary data have been generated by many Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. To facilitate efficient and effective use of these data in managing and mitigating human and wildlife exposure to mercury, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences have developed a website for visualizing and studying the distribution of mercury in our environment. The Environmental Mercury Mapping, Modeling, and Analysis (EMMMA) website (http://emmma.usgs.gov) provides health and environmental researchers, managers, and other decision-makers the ability to: 1) Interactively view and access a nationwide collection of environmental mercury data (fish tissue, atmospheric emissions and deposition, stream sediments, soils, and coal) and mercuryrelated data (mine locations); 2) Interactively view and access predictions of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF) at 4,976 sites and 6,829 sampling events (events are unique combinations of site and sampling date) across the United States; and 3) Use interactive mapping and graphing capabilities to visualize spatial and temporal trends and study relationships between mercury and other variables.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2002

Possible sources of nitrate in ground water at swine licensed-managed feeding operations in Oklahoma, 2001

Samples collected and analyzed by the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food, and Forestry from 1999 to 2001 determined that nitrate exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level for public drinking-water supplies of 10 milligrams per liter as nitrogen in 79 monitoring wells at 35 swine licensed-managed feeding operations (LMFO) in Oklahoma. The LMFOs are located in rural agricultural settings where long-term agriculture has potentially affected the ground-water quality in some areas. Land use prior to the construction of the LMFOs was assessed to evaluate the types of agricultural land use within a 500-meter radius of the sampled wells. Chemical and microbiological techniques were used to determine the possible sources of nitrate in water sampled from 10 wastewater lagoons and 79 wells. Samples were analyzed for dissolved major ions, dissolved trace elements, dissolved nutrients, nitrogen isotope ratios of nitrate and ammonia, wastewater organic compounds, and fecal coliform bacteria. Bacteria ribotyping analysis was done on selected samples to identify possible specific animal sources. A decision process was developed to identify the possible sources of nitrate. First, nitrogen isotope ratios were used to define sources as animal, mixed animal and fertilizer, or fertilizer. Second, wastewater organic compound detections, nitrogen-isotope ratios, fecal coliform bacteria detections, and ribotyping were used to refine the identification of possible sources as LFMO waste, fertilizer, or unidentified animal or mixtures of these sources. Additional evidence provided by ribotyping and wastewater organic compound data can, in some cases, specifically indicate the animal source. Detections of three or more wastewater organic compounds that are indicators of animal sources and detections of fecal coliform bacteria provided additional evidence of an animal source. LMFO waste was designated as a possible source of nitrate in water from 10 wells. The source of waste in water from five of those wells was determined through ribotyping, and the source of waste in water from the remaining five wells was determined by detections of three or more animal-waste compounds in the well samples. LMFO waste in the water from wells with unidentified animal source of nitrate does not indicate that LMFO waste was not the source, but indicated that multiple animal sources, including LMFO waste, may be the source of the nitrate.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Releases of whooping cranes to the Florida nonmigratory flock: a structured decision-making approach: report to the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, September 22, 2008

We used a structured decision-making approach to inform the decision of whether the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission should request of the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team that additional whooping crane chicks be released into the Florida Non-Migratory Population (FNMP). Structured decision-making is an application of decision science that strives to produce transparent, replicable, and defensible decisions that recognize the appropriate roles of management policy and science in decision-making. We present a multi-objective decision framework, where management objectives include successful establishment of a whooping crane population in Florida, minimization of costs, positive public relations, information gain, and providing a supply of captive-reared birds to alternative crane release projects, such as the Eastern Migratory Population. We developed models to predict the outcome relative to each of these objectives under 29 different scenarios of the release methodology used from 1993 to 2004, including options of no further releases and variable numbers of releases per year over the next 5-30 years. In particular, we developed a detailed set of population projection models, which make substantially different predictions about the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP. We used expert elicitation to develop prior model weights (measures of confidence in population model predictions); the results of the population model weighting and modelaveraging exercise indicated that the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP ranged from 9% if no additional releases are made, to as high as 41% with additional releases. We also used expert elicitation to develop weights (relative values) on the set of identified objectives, and we then used a formal optimization technique for identifying the optimal decision, which considers the tradeoffs between objectives. The optimal decision was identified as release of 3 cohorts (24 birds) per year over the next 10 years. However, any decision that involved release of 1-3 cohorts (8-24 birds) per year over the next 5 to 20 years, as well as decisions that involve skipping releases in every other year, performed better in our analysis than the alternative of no further releases. These results were driven by the relatively high objective weights that experts placed on the population objective (i.e., successful establishment of the FNMP) and the information gain objective (where releases are expected to accelerate learning on what was identified as a primary uncertainty: the demographic performance of wild-hatched birds). Additional considerations that were not formally integrated into the analysis are also discussed.

Florida↗

USGS2013

Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2011

Predicting breeding habitat for amphibians: a spatiotemporal analysis across Yellowstone National Park

The ability to predict amphibian breeding across landscapes is important for informing land management decisions and helping biologists better understand and remediate factors contributing to declines in amphibian populations. We built geospatial models of likely breeding habitats for each of four amphibian species that breed in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). We used field data collected in 2000-2002 from 497 sites among 16 basins and predictor variables from geospatial models produced from remotely sensed data (e.g., digital elevation model, complex topographic index, landform data, wetland probabililty, and vegetative cover). Except for 31 sites in one basin that were surveyed in both 2000 and 2002, all sites were surveyed once. We used polytomous regression to build statistical models for each species of amphibian from 1) field survey site data only, 2) field data combined with data from geospatial models, and 3) data from geospatial models only. Based on measures of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scores, models of the second type best explained likely breeding habitat because they contained the most information (ROC values ranged from 0.70 - 0.88). However, models of the third type could be applied to the entire YNP landscape and produced maps that could be verified with reserve field data. Accuracy rates for models built for single years were highly variable, ranging from 0.30 to 0.78. Accuracy rates for models built with data combined from multiple years were higher and less variable, ranging from 0.60 to 0.80. Combining results from the geospatial multiyear models yielded maps of "core" breeding areas (areas with high probability values for all three years) surrounded by areas that scored high for only one or two years, providing an estimate of variability among years. Such information can highlight landscape options for amphibian conservation. For example, our models identify alternative for areas that could be protected for each species, including 6828-10 764 ha for tiger salamanders; 971-3017 ha for western toads; 4732-16 696 ha for boreal chorus frogs; 4940-19 690 hectares for Columbia spotted frogs.

Yellowstone National Park↗

USGS2013

Identification of metrics to monitor salt marsh integrity on National Wildlife Refuges in relation to conservation and management objectives

Executive Summary Most salt marshes in the US have been degraded by human activities, and threats from physical alterations, surrounding land-use, species invasions, and global climate change persist. Salt marshes are unique and highly productive ecosystems with high intrinsic value to wildlife, and many National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have been established in coastal areas to protect large tracts of salt marsh and wetland-dependent species. Various management practices are employed routinely on coastal NWRs to restore and enhance marsh integrity and ensure ecosystem sustainability. Prioritizing NWR salt marshes for application of management actions and choosing among multiple management options requires scientifically-based methods for assessing marsh condition. Monitoring is integral to structured decision-making (SDM), a formal process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. Within a natural resource context, SDM involves identifying management objectives, alternative management actions, and expected management outcomes. The core of SDM is a set of criteria for measuring system performance and evaluating management responses. Therefore, use of SDM to frame natural resource decisions leads to logical selection of monitoring attributes that are linked explicitly to management needs. We used SDM to guide selection of variables for monitoring the ecological integrity of salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS). Our objectives were to identify indicators of salt marsh integrity that are effective across large geographic regions, responsive to a wide range of threats, and feasible to implement within funding and staffing constraints of the NWRS. In April, 2008, we engaged interdisciplinary experts in a week-long rapid prototyping SDM workshop to define the essential elements of salt marsh management decisions on refuges throughout the northeastern, southwestern, and northwestern US, corresponding to respective Regions 5, 2, and 1 of the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Through this process we identified measurable attributes for monitoring salt marsh ecosystems that are integrated into conservation practice and target management objectives. The following salt marsh attributes were identified through the SDM process either for describing state condition to determine management needs or for evaluating the achievement of management objectives: historical condition and geomorphic setting; ditch density; surrounding land use; ratio of open water area to vegetation area; rate of pesticide application; environmental contaminant concentration; change in marsh surface elevation relative to sea level rise; tidal range and groundwater level; surface topography; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, invertebrates, nekton, and breeding and wintering birds. The identified attributes were too broadly defined to serve as operational monitoring variables. Therefore, we tested specific metrics for quantifying most of these attributes in summers of 2008 and 2009. The first four attributes in the above list can be characterized by office-based analysis of existing GIS data layers. The remaining attributes require field-based methods for assessment. We were forced to exclude a small number of attributes from field tests due to inconsistent data (pesticide application rate, environmental contaminant concentrations) or requirements that exceeded the scope of this project (change in marsh surface elevation; surface topography; benthic invertebrates; wintering birds). We evaluated potential metrics for evaluating all remaining field attributes. In partnership with NWRS biologists, we tested rapid versus intensive metrics for monitoring field attributes (tidal range and groundwater level; marsh surface elevation; salinity; and species composition and abundance of vegetation, invasive species, nekton, and breeding birds) at coastal refuges throughout FWS Region 5. Seven refuges participated in metric testing in 2008: Rachel Carson (ME), Parker River (MA), Wertheim (NY), E. B. Forsythe (NJ), Bombay Hook (DE), Prime Hook (DE), and Eastern Shore of Virginia Complex (VA). These seven and two additional refuges participated in metric testing in 2009: Rhode Island Complex (RI) and Stewart B. McKinney (CT). We based all field metrics on existing protocols for salt marsh assessment. Sampling locations were determined randomly within delineated marsh study units (MSUs) at each refuge. Detailed field methods are provided in appendices to this report. Measurements for individual metrics were averaged across samples within MSUs during each year of sampling. Each year, correlation or regression analysis was conducted on average measurements across MSUs within each attribute set to identify redundant metrics. Statistical redundancy between a pair of metrics within an attribute set (i.e., correlation or regression slopes with p-values < 0.05) was considered justification for eliminating one of the pair from the regional set of monitoring metrics. Decisions regarding metric elimination versus retention were based on feasibility of monitoring, considering such factors as sampling time, resources required, and potential for regional standardization in implementation. The result of these tests is a reduced suite of monitoring metrics that targets NWRS management decisions and is practicable for implementing on a regional scale. Based on these tests, we recommend the following list of metrics for monitoring integrity of NWRS salt marshes (marsh attribute category is in parentheses): (historical condition and geomorphic setting) position of marsh in the landscape, marsh shape, degree of fill and/or fragmentation, degree of tidal flushing, amount of aquatic edge; (ditch density) ranking of ditch density from none to severe; (surrounding land use) relative proportion of agricultural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 150-m buffer around the marsh, relative proportion of natural land in a 1-km buffer around the marsh; (ratio of open water area to vegetation area) ratio of open water to emergent herbaceous wetlands within the marsh; (marsh surface elevation) elevation referenced to NAVD88 in a representative area of the marsh; (tidal range and groundwater level) percent of time the marsh surface is flooded during deployment of a continuous water-level monitor at a representative marsh location, mean depth of surface flooding as measured by a continuous water-level monitor at a representative location; (salinity) salinity measured in surface water; (vegetation community) vegetation species richness using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots, percent cover of various marsh community types within 100-m diameter survey plots; (invasive species abundance) percent cover of invasive plant species measured using the point-intercept method in 100-m diameter survey plots; (nekton community) nekton density, nekton species richness, length of Fundulus heteroclitus ; (breeding bird community) abundance of Willets counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys, summed abundance of tidal marsh obligate species (Clapper Rail, Willet, Saltmarsh Sparrow, Seaside Sparrow) counted per point during standard call-broadcast surveys. Metrics describing the historical condition, geomorphic setting, and broad landscape features can be assessed using existing GIS databases. Our results support use of rapid methods to assess the majority of field metrics; only those used to describe the nekton community must be measured using intensive methods (throw traps or ditch nets, dependant on habitat configuration). Implementation of these metrics for quantitative assessment of NWRS salt marsh integrity in FWS Region 5 requires developing sampling designs for each refuge. Additionally, it is important to determine how the monitoring information will be used within a management context. SDM should be used to complete the analysis of salt marsh management decisions. The next steps would involve 1) prioritizing and weighting the management objectives; 2) predicting responses to individual management actions in terms of objectives and metrics; 3) using multiattribute utility theory to convert all measurable attributes to a common utility scale; 4) determining the total management benefit of each action by summing utilities across objectives; and 5) maximizing the total management benefits within cost constraints for each refuge. This process would allow the optimum management decisions for NWRS salt marshes to be selected and implemented based directly on monitoring data and current understanding of marsh responses to management actions. Monitoring the outcome of management actions would then allow new monitoring data to be incorporated into subsequent decisions.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New J↗

USGS2010

Integrating Agriculture and Conservation

The USGS produces the needed science-based information to guide management actions and policy decisions that support wildlife habitat and other environmental services compatible with USDA conservation goals and farm operations. The Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) has conducted research involving a national landowner survey and numerous short- and long-term evaluations regarding vegetation responses to land management practices. This research helps land and resource managers to make informed decisions and resolve resource management conflicts.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2023

Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology Project—Science strategy

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts a wide variety of science that improves understanding of droughts and their effects on ecosystems and society. This work includes data collection and monitoring of aquatic and terrestrial systems; assessment and analysis of patterns, trends, drivers, and impacts of drought; development and application of predictive models; and delivery of information and decision-making tools to stakeholders. Stakeholders, which include Federal, Tribal, State, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and others, use this information to anticipate, assess, react to, and mitigate drought conditions and impacts. There is no obvious near-term solution to reduce the frequency and severity of droughts or to mitigate drought impacts. Multidecadal drought is a “grand challenge” that benefits from integration of existing technologies, data, knowledge, and models across related and disparate disciplines, facilitated by new science and technology. In response, the USGS initiated a new integrated-science approach in the Colorado River Basin in 2020. The Colorado River Basin was specifically selected because of concerns about future drought and its consequences for the region. This document explains how the Colorado River Basin Actionable and Strategic Integrated Science and Technology (ASIST) project extends and enhances the science supported by USGS Mission Areas and Programs and articulates scientific gaps and stakeholder needs to identify and reduce drought risks. The approach seeks to answer complex Earth science questions developed in partnership with stakeholders about severe long-term drought. An integrated approach is required to tackle these complex questions, which any single science discipline cannot answer on its own. In addition to increased understanding of drought and drought effects in complex systems, the Colorado River Basin ASIST project was designed to improve efficiencies through rapid location of a broad array of data sources, assembly of model-ready multidisciplinary data, and delivery of actionable science to stakeholders at the speeds and scales needed for decision making. The project team identified the following actions needed for USGS to implement and advance an integrated science approach in the Colorado River Basin: (1) engage with stakeholders to document their needs and iteratively co-produce science and science delivery tools to address these needs, (2) integrate monitoring and observation systems developed by USGS and other agencies that track droughts and their effects, (3) collect and provide analysis-ready data to support integrated applications, (4) integrate data and model connections to predict multiple drought impacts, (5) conduct multidisciplinary coordination to improve interpretations, (6) leverage the knowledge base across USGS to enhance decision making, and (7) support the development of new integrated science approaches and technologies that provide analysis and management tools that can be used to adapt to the effects of drought in the Colorado River Basin. Proposals for initial short-term use-case projects were solicited, a subset of which was selected for funding to test implementation of these actions. Additionally, the project organized and convened a series of science and technology collaboration workshops in the USGS focused on challenges that were identified and prioritized by the short-term use-case projects and during the initial stakeholder analysis. These workshops were designed to bring together diverse perspectives to discuss science and technology challenges, stakeholder needs, capabilities, and knowledge gaps, with the goal of determining how the USGS can address challenges, identify future opportunities for continued engagement between participants, and inform the next steps for the Colorado River Basin ASIST project. Continuing to collaboratively engage with a wide range of stakeholders using an integrated approach will provide a suitable foundation of data and tools to formulate actionable intelligence for predicting droughts and informing adaptation to the effects of long-term drought in a holistic, timely, and effective manner.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,↗