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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

USGS2003

Response of benthic foraminifers to sewage discharge and remediation in Santa Monica Bay, California

Examination of a time series of foraminiferal assemblage distributions on the continental shelf and slope of Santa Monica Bay from 1955 to 1997-1998 suggests that the benthic microfauna have been greatly affected by the quality and character of the municipal sludge and wastewater discharged into the bay over the last half-century by the Hyperion Treatment Plant serving the greater Los Angeles area. Five species dominate both the living and dead foraminiferal assemblages of the 1997-1998 surface samples, including Eggerella advena, Trochammina pacifica, Bulimina denudata, Buliminella elegantissima, and Epistominella bradyana. Temporal patterns of relative species abundances for both living and dead assemblages, as well as toxicity tests measuring amphipod survival and sea urchin fertilization success, show improvement since the sewage treatment program was enhanced in 1986. None of these trends are evident 10 years earlier, coincident with the onset of a Pacific Decadal Oscillation warming trend. This fact suggests that remediation, and not climate change, is responsible for the faunal changes observed. Even with remediation, however, all foraminiferal faunal trends have not returned to early-outfall levels. The organic-waste indicating species T. pacifica shows a slow decline in abundance as sewage treatment and sludge disposal activities have improved, whereas a dramatic increase in the abundance of the pioneer colonizer of impacted regions, E. advena, has occurred, often with a reciprocal response by B. denudata. Also evident is a dramatic shift in the abundance of the once-dominant species Nonionella basispinata and Nonionella stella, which were unable to recolonize Santa Monica Bay since the two major outfalls (5- and 7-mile) began discharging. Temporal variations in species abundances, as well as range expansions, contractions, and the inability to recolonize areas previously, or presently, impacted, suggests that foraminifers are a useful tool in defining areas affected by waste discharge.

Marine Environmental Research↗

USGS2025

The North American greenhouse gas budget: Emissions, removals, and integration for CO2, CH4, and N2O (2010–2019): Results From the Second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Study (RECCAP2)

Accurate accounting of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions and removals is central to tracking progress toward climate mitigation and for monitoring potential climate-change feedbacks. GHG budgeting and reporting can follow either the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change methodologies for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory (NGHGI) reporting or use atmospheric-based “top-down” (TD) inversions or process-based “bottom-up” (BU) approaches. To help understand and reconcile these approaches, the Second REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes study (RECCAP2) was established to quantify GHG emissions and removals for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), for ten-land and five-ocean regions for 2010–2019. Here, we present the results for the North American land region (Canada, the United States, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean). For 2010–2019, the NGHGI reported total net-GHG emissions of 7,270 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 compared to TD estimates of 6,132 ± 1,846 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 and BU estimates of 9,060 ± 898 TgCO 2 -eq yr −1 . Reconciling differences between the NGHGI, TD and BU approaches depended on (a) accounting for lateral fluxes of CO 2 along the land-ocean-aquatic continuum (LOAC) and trade, (b) correcting land-use CO 2 emissions for the loss-of-additional-sink capacity (LASC), (c) avoiding double counting of inland water CH 4 emissions, and (d) adjusting area estimates to match the NGHGI definition of the managed-land proxy. Uncertainties remain from inland-water CO 2 evasion, the conversion of nitrogen fertilizers to N 2 O, and from less-frequent NGHGI reporting from non-Annex-1 countries. The RECCAP2 framework plays a key role in reconciling independent GHG-reporting methodologies to support policy commitments while providing insights into biogeochemical processes and responses to climate change.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles↗

USGS2017

Ad hoc instrumentation methods in ecological studies produce highly biased temperature measurements

In light of global climate change, ecological studies increasingly address effects of temperature on organisms and ecosystems. To measure air temperature at biologically relevant scales in the field, ecologists often use small, portable temperature sensors. Sensors must be shielded from solar radiation to provide accurate temperature measurements, but our review of 18 years of ecological literature indicates that shielding practices vary across studies (when reported at all), and that ecologists often invent and construct ad hoc radiation shields without testing their efficacy. We performed two field experiments to examine the accuracy of temperature observations from three commonly used portable data loggers (HOBO Pro, HOBO Pendant, and iButton hygrochron) housed in manufactured Gill shields or ad hoc, custom‐fabricated shields constructed from everyday materials such as plastic cups. We installed this sensor array (five replicates of 11 sensor‐shield combinations) at weather stations located in open and forested sites. HOBO Pro sensors with Gill shields were the most accurate devices, with a mean absolute error of 0.2°C relative to weather stations at each site. Error in ad hoc shield treatments ranged from 0.8 to 3.0°C, with the largest errors at the open site. We then deployed one replicate of each sensor‐shield combination at five sites that varied in the amount of urban impervious surface cover, which presents a further shielding challenge. Bias in sensors paired with ad hoc shields increased by up to 0.7°C for every 10% increase in impervious surface. Our results indicate that, due to variable shielding practices, the ecological literature likely includes highly biased temperature data that cannot be compared directly across studies. If left unaddressed, these errors will hinder efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. We call for greater standardization in how temperature data are recorded in the field, handled in analyses, and reported in publications.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: Polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7–3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Chukchi Sea↗

USGS2024

Declining ecological resilience and invasion resistance under climate change in the sagebrush region, United States

In water-limited dryland ecosystems of the Western United States, climate change is intensifying the impacts of heat, drought, and wildfire. Disturbances often lead to increased abundance of invasive species, in part, because dryland restoration and rehabilitation are inhibited by limited moisture and infrequent plant recruitment events. Information on ecological resilience to disturbance (recovery potential) and resistance to invasive species can aid in addressing these challenges by informing long-term restoration and conservation planning. Here, we quantified the impacts of projected future climate on ecological resilience and invasion resistance (R&R) in the sagebrush region using novel algorithms based on ecologically relevant and climate-sensitive predictors of climate and ecological drought. We used a process-based ecohydrological model to project these predictor variables and resulting R&R indicators for two future climate scenarios and 20 climate models. Results suggested widespread future R&R decreases (24%–34% of the 1.16 million km 2 study area) that are generally consistent among climate models. Variables related to rising temperatures were most strongly linked to decreases in R&R indicators. New continuous R&R indices quantified responses to climate change; particularly useful for areas without projected change in the R&R category but where R&R still may decrease, for example, some of the areas with a historically low R&R category. Additionally, we found that areas currently characterized as having high sagebrush ecological integrity had the largest areal percentage with expected declines in R&R in the future, suggesting continuing declines in sagebrush ecosystems. One limitation of these R&R projections was relatively novel future climatic conditions in particularly hot and dry areas that were underrepresented in the training data. Including more data from these areas in future updates could further improve the reliability of the projections. Overall, these projected future declines in R&R highlight a growing challenge for natural resource managers in the region, and the resulting spatially explicit datasets provide information that can improve long-term risk assessments, prioritizations, and climate adaptation efforts.

western United States↗

USGS2013

Potential increases in natural disturbance rates could offset forest management impacts on ecosystem carbon stocks

Forested ecosystems contain the majority of the world’s terrestrial carbon, and forest management has implications for regional and global carbon cycling. Carbon stored in forests changes with stand age and is affected by natural disturbance and timber harvesting. We examined how harvesting and disturbance interact to influence forest carbon stocks over the Superior National Forest, in northern Minnesota. Forest inventory data from the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis program were used to characterize current forest age structure and quantify the relationship between age and carbon stocks for eight forest types. Using these findings, we simulated the impact of alternative management scenarios and natural disturbance rates on forest-wide terrestrial carbon stocks over a 100-year horizon. Under low natural mortality, forest-wide total ecosystem carbon stocks increased when 0% or 40% of planned harvests were implemented; however, the majority of forest-wide carbon stocks decreased with greater harvest levels and elevated disturbance rates. Our results suggest that natural disturbance has the potential to exert stronger influence on forest carbon stocks than timber harvesting activities and that maintaining carbon stocks over the long-term may prove difficult if disturbance frequency increases in response to climate change.

Minnesota↗

USGS2015

The source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs, and the abundance and health of associated endemic anuran species in the Mojave network parks

Hydrological and biological investigations were done during 2005 and 2006 in cooperation with the U.S. National Park Service to investigate the source, discharge, and chemical characteristics of selected springs and the abundance and health of endemic anuran (frog and toad) species at Darwin Falls in Death Valley National Park, Piute Spring in Mojave National Preserve, and Fortynine Palms Oasis in Joshua Tree National Park. Discharge from the springs at these sites sustains isolated riparian habitats in the normally dry Mojave Desert. Data were collected on water quantity (discharge) and quality, air and water temperature, and abundance and health of endemic anuran species. In addition, a single survey of the abundance and health of endemic anuran species was completed at Rattlesnake Canyon in Joshua Tree National Park. Results from this study were compared to limited historical data, where they exist, and can provide a baseline for future hydrological and biological investigations to evaluate the health and sustainability of the resource and its response to changing climate and increasing human use. Radiocarbon dating of the water yielded estimated ages of about 7,000 years at Piute Spring and about 3,000 years at Darwin Spring, and tritium-helium-3 dating indicated an age of less than 2 years at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Stable hydrogen-isotope ratios were used to interpret an average altitude of recharge of 2,348 meters for Darwin Spring (about 1,415 meters higher than the altitude of Darwin Spring), 1,668 meters for Piute Spring (about 766 meters higher than the altitude of Piute Spring), and 1,400 meters for the Upper Pool at Fortynine Palms Oasis (about 543 meters higher than the altitude of the Upper Pool). Water-quality data collected for this study did not appear to be sensitive to trends in precipitation or seasonality in the Darwin Falls and Piute Spring study areas; however, it was sensitive to trends in Fortynine Palms Oasis where salinity increased by more than 10 percent during the 2 years of this study. Such a rapid response is consistent with the comparatively short travel time of less than 2 years from recharge to discharge at Fortynine Palms Oasis. Of the 14 trace elements analyzed, only concentrations of uranium at Fortynine Palms Oasis and arsenic at Darwin Spring were above drinking water standards; both constituents are derived from natural sources in the drainage basin and, therefore, are likely to have accumulated as a result of natural processes. Endemic anuran species were surveyed at Darwin Falls for the western toad ( Anaxyrus boreas ) and the red-spotted toad ( Anaxyrus punctatus ), at Piute Spring for the red-spotted toad, and at Fortynine Palms Oasis for the red-spotted toad and California treefrog ( Pseudacris cadaverina ). Historically, red-spotted toads were at the edge of their range at Darwin Falls, but they were not detected during this study and have not been detected since the early 1980s. The 2006 western toad population at Darwin Falls was estimated at 381 adults (95-percent confidence interval [CI] of 314–482). The population of red-spotted toads at Piute Spring was estimated at 1,153 adults (95-percent CI of 935–1,503). However, an elevated rate of abnormalities (approximately 5 percent) was recorded in red-spotted toads as well as the presence of the chytrid fungus, Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis , at Piute Spring. In Joshua Tree National Park, the California treefrog now occupies only three of the seven historically occupied drainages. Populations of California treefrogs at Fortynine Palms Oasis have declined more than 50 percent from 288 in 1969–71 to 109 in 2006. A similar decline was observed in the populations of red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis from 300 adults in 1969–71 to 155 adults (95-percent CI of 90–139) in 2006. The red-spotted toads at Fortynine Palms Oasis also exhibited the presence of Bactrochochytrium dendrobatidis .

California↗

USGS2014

Photoperiod control of downstream movements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts

This study provides the first direct observations that photoperiod controls the initiation of downstream movement in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts. Under simulated natural day length (LDN) conditions and seasonal increases in temperature, smolts increased their downstream movements five-fold for a period of 1 month in late spring. Under the same conditions, parr did not show changes in downstream movement behaviour. When given a shortened day length (10L:14D) beginning in late winter, smolts did not increase the number of downstream movements. An early increase in day length (16L:8D) in late winter resulted in earlier initiation and termination of downstream movements compared to the LDN group. Physiological status and behaviour were related but not completely coincident: gill Na + /K + -ATPase activity increased in all treatments and thyroid hormone was elevated prior to movement in 16L:8D treatment. The most parsimonious model describing downstream movement of smolts included synergistic effects of photoperiod treatment and temperature, indicating that peak movements occurred at colder temperatures in the 16L:8D treatment than in LDN, and temperature did not influence movement of smolts in the 10L:14D treatment. The complicated interactions of photoperiod and temperature are not surprising since many organisms have evolved to rely on correlations among environmental cues and windows of opportunity to time behaviours associated with life-history transitions. These complicated interactions, however, have serious implications for phenological adjustments and persistence of S . salar populations in response to climate change.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

USGS2019

Assessing rangeland health under climate variability and change

RANGELAND HEALTH IN A CHANGING WORLD Rangeland health is an integrated metric that describes a complex suite of ecosystem properties and processes as applied to resource management. While the concept of “healthy” landscapes has a long history, the term “rangeland health” was codified in the US in 1994 as part of an effort to move towards a national, data driven, rangeland condition assessment (National Research Council 1994). Rangeland health encompasses the status of both soils and ecological processes as well as the condition of those ecosystems relative to ecological thresholds (e.g. “healthy”, “at-risk”, or “unhealthy"; National Research Council 1994). This latter application ensures that rangeland health assessments not only evaluate the conditions of plants and soils, but also gauge those conditions with respect to known or hypothesized ecological dynamics (Bestelmeyer et al. 2013) for a given set of abiotic constraints (climate, soil, and topographic setting). Thus, an assessment of rangeland health should identify the “degree to which the integrity of the soil and the ecological processes are sustained” (National Research Council 1994, Us Department of Agriculture 1997). Rangeland health attributes and assessment procedures have become widely utilized tools for measuring and monitoring dryland ecosystems, and they may provide valuable perspectives on rangeland response to climate change, although long-term directional change in environmental conditions represents a challenge for traditional rangeland health assessment frameworks.

Book chapter↗

USGS2017

Direct and indirect controls on organic matter decomposition in four coastal wetland communities along a landscape salinity gradient

Coastal wetlands store more carbon than most ecosystems globally. As sea level rises, changes in flooding and salinity will potentially impact ecological functions, such as organic matter decomposition, that influence carbon storage. However, little is known about the mechanisms that control organic matter loss in coastal wetlands at the landscape scale. As sea level rises, how will the shift from fresh to salt-tolerant plant communities impact organic matter decomposition? Do long-term, plant-mediated, effects of sea-level rise differ from direct effects of elevated salinity and flooding? We identified internal and external factors that regulated indirect and direct pathways of sea-level rise impacts, respectively, along a landscape-scale salinity gradient that incorporated changes in wetland type (fresh, oligohaline, mesohaline and polyhaline marshes). We found that indirect and direct impacts of sea-level rise had opposing effects on organic matter decomposition. Salinity had an indirect effect on litter decomposition that was mediated through litter quality. Despite significant variation in environmental conditions along the landscape gradient, the best predictors of above- and below-ground litter decomposition were internal drivers, initial litter nitrogen content and initial litter lignin content respectively. Litter decay constants were greatest in the oligohaline marsh and declined with increasing salinity, and the fraction of litter remaining (asymptote) was greatest in the mesohaline marsh. In contrast, direct effects of salinity and flooding were positive. External drivers, salinity and flooding, stimulated cellulytic activity, which was highest in the polyhaline marsh. Synthesis . Our results indicate that as sea level rises, initial direct effects of salinity will stimulate decay of labile carbon, but over time as plant communities shift from fresh to polyhaline marsh, litter decay will decline, yielding greater potential for long-term carbon storage. These findings highlight the importance of quantifying carbon loss at multiple temporal scales, not only in coastal wetlands but also in other ecosystems where plant-mediated responses to climate change will have significant impacts on carbon cycling.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2024

Climate driven trends in historical extreme low streamflows on four continents

Understanding temporal trends in low streamflows is important for water management and ecosystems. This work focuses on trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low-flow events (5- to 100-year return periods) for pooled groups of stations. We use data from 1,184 minimally altered catchments in Europe, North and South America, and Australia to discern historical climate-driven trends in extreme low flows (1976–2015 and 1946–2015). The understanding of low streamflows is complicated by different hydrological regimes in cold, transitional, and warm regions. We use a novel classification to define low-flow regimes using air temperature and monthly low-flow frequency. Trends in the annual occurrence rate of extreme low-flow events (proportion of pooled stations each year) were assessed for each regime. Most regimes on multiple continents did not have significant ( p < 0.05) trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low streamflows from 1976 to 2015; however, occurrence rates for the cold-season low-flow regime in North America were found to be significantly decreasing for low return-period events. In contrast, there were statistically significant increases for this period in warm regions of NA which were associated with the variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Significant decreases in extreme low-flow occurrence rates were dominant from 1946 to 2015 in Europe and NA for both cold- and warm-season low-flow regimes; there were also some non-significant trends. The difference in the results between the shorter (40-year) and longer (70-year) records and between low-flow regimes highlights the complexities of low-flow response to changing climatic conditions.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2014

Geographic variability in elevation and topographic constraints on the distribution of native and nonnative trout in the Great Basin

Understanding local and geographic factors influencing species distributions is a prerequisite for conservation planning. Our objective in this study was to model local and geographic variability in elevations occupied by native and nonnative trout in the northwestern Great Basin, USA. To this end, we analyzed a large existing data set of trout presence (5,156 observations) to evaluate two fundamental factors influencing occupied elevations: climate-related gradients in geography and local constraints imposed by topography. We applied quantile regression to model upstream and downstream distribution elevation limits for each trout species commonly found in the region (two native and two nonnative species). With these models in hand, we simulated an upstream shift in elevation limits of trout distributions to evaluate potential consequences of habitat loss. Downstream elevation limits were inversely associated with latitude, reflecting regional gradients in temperature. Upstream limits were positively related to maximum stream elevation as expected. Downstream elevation limits were constrained topographically by valley bottom elevations in northern streams but not in southern streams, where limits began well above valley bottoms. Elevation limits were similar among species. Upstream shifts in elevation limits for trout would lead to more habitat loss in the north than in the south, a result attributable to differences in topography. Because downstream distributions of trout in the north extend into valley bottoms with reduced topographic relief, trout in more northerly latitudes are more likely to experience habitat loss associated with an upstream shift in lower elevation limits. By applying quantile regression to relatively simple information (species presence, elevation, geography, topography), we were able to identify elevation limits for trout in the Great Basin and explore the effects of potential shifts in these limits that could occur in response to changing climate conditions that alter streams directly (e.g., through changes in temperature and precipitation) or indirectly (e.g., through changing water use).

California;Idaho;Nevada;Oregon↗

USGS2024

Experimental changes in food and ectoparasites affect dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls

Natal dispersal is a key demographic trait that affects population dynamics, and intraspecific variation in dispersal affects gene flow among populations and source-sink dynamics. However, relatively little is known about the selective pressures and trade-offs that animals face when departing their natal area due to the logistical difficulties associated with monitoring animals during this critical life stage. We used a randomized block design to examine the selective pressure that influence dispersal timing in juvenile burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia ) by experimentally altering both food and ectoparasites at 135 nests. We also examined the effects of local food abundance, ectoparasite loads, and parental departure on natal dispersal timing. Juvenile burrowing owls varied widely in natal dispersal timing, and phenotypic plasticity in dispersal timing was evident in juvenile owls’ response to our experimental treatments, local conditions, and their parents’ departure from the natal area. Moreover, juveniles responded differently than their parents to experimental manipulation of food and ectoparasite loads. Juveniles typically dispersed shortly after their parents departed the natal area, but delayed dispersing more than 2 weeks after parental departure if they did not receive experimental food supplements during a low-food year. In contrast, the experimental food supplements did not affect the migratory departure decisions of adult owls in either year. Juveniles at nests treated for ectoparasites initiated dispersal at a younger age (and prior to adults in the high-food year) compared to juveniles at control nests. In contrast, parents at nests treated for ectoparasites departed later than parents at control nests. Our results suggest that unfavorable conditions (low food or high ectoparasite loads) caused juveniles to delay dispersal, but prompted adults to depart sooner. Our results highlight the extent of intraspecific variation in natal dispersal timing, and demonstrate that ecological conditions affect dispersal decisions of parents and offspring differently, which can create important trade-offs that likely affect life history strategies and responses to climatic changes.

Washington↗

USGS2016

Using Cape Sable seaside sparrow distribution data for water management decision support

The Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis; hereafter sparrow) is endemic to south Florida and a key indicator species of marl prairie, the most diverse freshwater community in the Florida Everglades. Marl prairie habitat is shaped by intermediate levels of disturbances such as flooding, drying, and fire, which maintain periphyton production (Gaiser et al. 2011), vegetation composition (Sah et al. 2011), and habitat structure for wildlife (Lockwood et al. 2003). Historically, patches of marl prairie shifted in response to changing climatic conditions,; however, habitat loss and hydrologic alteration have restricted the sparrow’s range and increased their sensitivity to changing hydropatterns. As a result, sparrow numbers have declined as much as 60% range-wide since 1992 (Curnutt et al. 1998, Nott et al. 1998). Currently, the sparrow is restricted to the freshwater prairies of the Everglades National Park (ENP) and Big Cypress Preserve (Lockwood et al. 1997). Because this non-migratory bird is restricted in its range it was among the first species to be listed as endangered by the US Fish and Wildlife Service on March 11, 1967 (Pimm et al. 2000). Now protected by the Endangered Species Act of 1973, the sparrow is listed as an endangered species, and the marl prairies that it resides in are listed as critical habitat. Since its designation as an endangered species, federal agencies have a statutory obligation to not jeopardize the survival of the species or modify its critical habitat. However, there are still uncertainties in how to increase suitable habitat within and surrounding the six existing sparrow subpopulations (Fig. 1) which are vulnerable to environmental stochasticity because of their small population size and restricted range. Since Because maintenance and creation of suitable habitat is seen as the most important pathway to the persistence of sparrow subpopulations (Sustainable Ecosystems Institute 2007), emphasis should be on identifying factors affecting sparrow habitat suitability and expanding the total area of suitable habitat over a gradient of environmental conditions. Our objective is to improve the definition of suitable sparrow habitat based on the relationship between daily sparrow distributions from 1992-present and hydrologic and habitat variables. Further, these models can provide an estimate of habitat quality when linked with estimates of reproductive responses.

Report↗

USGS2025

Estimation of baseflow and flooding characteristics for East Canyon Creek, Summit and Morgan Counties, Utah

An improved understanding of hydrologic responses to changing climatic conditions is needed to better inform water management practices. East Canyon Creek, a perennial, snowmelt-dominated stream in the Wasatch Mountains of northern Utah, is subjected to increasing development and demands on water in the Snyderville Basin and adjacent areas. In this study, streamflow and specific conductance measured at three U.S. Geological Survey streamgages on East Canyon Creek were used to estimate daily baseflow for water years 2011–22. Trends in these estimates and correlations with climate data from two Natural Resource Conservation Service snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations within the Snyderville Basin above East Canyon Reservoir, were quantified and reported. Peak annual streamflow also was assessed for flood potential on the study reach of East Canyon Creek. The hydrograph separations showed consistent baseflow indices among all sites, with a larger baseflow component during the fall–spring period (September–April; baseflow indices approximately equal to [≈] 0.751–0.835) and smaller component during the summer period (May–August; baseflow indices ≈ 0.428–0.532). In-stream specific conductance during spring (February–April) was influenced by road salt application, limiting the utility of the hydrograph separation approach. Annual streamflow and climate data were evaluated for trends using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test, with inconclusive results. Related tests for trends, the Seasonal and Regional Kendall tests, were used to evaluate data at monthly timesteps and indicated a decreasing trend in total streamflow and baseflow at all streamgages. The rank-based Kendall’s tau test for correlation was used to measure the ordinal association with climatic data at co-located SNOTEL stations. Total streamflow and baseflow were strongly correlated with precipitation and snow-water equivalent. By incorporating a predictive regression model, the nonparametric Theil–Sen line, these correlations could support the development of streamflow forecast models using climate data from SNOTEL stations. Such models would provide water managers with tools to help make proactive decisions, such as reservoir or water reclamation releases and curtailment of withdrawals, in response to regional drought or varying snowpack and spring runoff in a given year.

Utah↗

USGS2005

Geologic and geophysical maps of the Las Vegas 30' x 60' quadrangle, Clark and Nye counties, Nevada, and Inyo County, California

Las Vegas and Pahrump are two of the fastest growing cities in the US, and the shortage of water looms as among the greatest future problems for these cities. These new maps of the Las Vegas 30 x 60-minute quadrangle provide a geologic and geophysical framework and fundamental earth science database needed to address societal issues such as ground water supply and contamination, surface flood, landslide, and seismic hazards, and soil properties and their changing impact by and on urbanization. The mountain ranges surrounding Las Vegas and Pahrump consist of Mesozoic, Paleozoic and Proterozoic rocks. A majority of these rocks are Paleozoic carbonate rocks that are part of Nevada's carbonate rock aquifer province. The Spring Mountains represent a major recharge site in the province, where maximum altitude is 3,632 m (Charleston Peak) above sea level. Rocks in the Sheep and Las Vegas Ranges and Spring Mountains contain correlative, northeast-striking, southeast-verging thrust faults that are part of the Cretaceous, Sevier orogenic belt. These thrusts were offset during the Miocene by the Las Vegas Valley shear system (LVVSZ). We conducted new mapping in the Blue Diamond area, highlighting refined work on the Bird Spring thrust, newly studied ancient landslides, and gravity-slide blocks. We conducted new mapping in the Las Vegas Range and mapped previously unrecognized structures such as the Valley thrust and fold belt; recognition of these structures has led to a refined correlation of Mesozoic thrust faults across the LVVSZ. New contributions in the quadrangle also include a greatly refined stratigraphy of Paleozoic bedrock units based on conodont biostragraphy. We collected over 200 conodont samples in the quadrangle and established stratigraphic reference sections used to correlate units across the major Mesozoic thrust faults. Quaternary deposits cover about half of the map area and underlie most of the present urbanized area. Deposits consist of large coalescing alluvial fans that grade downslope to extensive areas of fine-grained sediment indicative of groundwater-discharge during the Pleistocene. In the central areas of Las Vegas and Pahrump valleys, Quaternary fault scarps associated with past ground-water discharge deposits suggest a genetic relationship. In collaboration with NBMG and University of Nevada, a variety of ages of gravelly alluvium are newly mapped using surficial characteristics and soil development, along with reassessment of previously published mapping during compilation. Reconnaissance geochronology (thermoluminescence and U-series) of eolian and authigenic components of surficial and buried soils and spring deposits is applied to test hypotheses of geomorphic and hydrologic response to climate change over the past 100 k.y.). The major structure in the Las Vegas quadrangle is the LVVSZ. Because the LVVSZ is concealed by thick basin-fill deposits of Quaternary and Tertiary age, it was characterized primarily based on geophysics. Likewise, the newly described State line fault system in Pahrump Valley has also been characterized by geophysics, where geophysically inferred structures correlate remarkably with surface structures defined by our new geologic mapping in the Mound Spring and Hidden Hills Ranch 7.5-minute quadrangles.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2014

Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets ( 14 C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization

Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗