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Facing our freshwater crisis via fluid and agile communication: A grand challenge

Earth has been labeled the blue planet because of its abundance of water that covers most of its surface, but the majority is salt water in our oceans. Oceans account for ~352 million km 2 or 69% of the planet's surface, land for 150 million km 2 or 29%, and fresh water for 9 million km 2 or 2% ( Shiklomanov, 2000 ). Most of the fresh water is locked away in glaciers and ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, with less than a third accessible to biota ( Shiklomanov, 2000 ). This miniscule fraction of fresh water is our most precious natural resource, the foundation for life in terrestrial environments, and humanity depends on it, but the resource faces enormous threats. My aim in this brief editorial is to define the freshwater resource, succinctly summarize the major threats it faces, and underscore recent calls for conservation. My review is cursory, but I call attention to various recent exhaustive reviews. I end with my views on how journals can help advance global freshwater conservation efforts.

Frontiers in Freshwater Science

Discrimination of biological scatterers in polarimetric weather radar data: Opportunities and challenges

For radar aeroecology studies, the identification of the type of scatterer is critically important. Here, we used a random forest (RF) algorithm to develop a variety of scatterer classification models based on the backscatter values in radar resolution volumes of six radar variables (reflectivity, radial velocity, spectrum width, differential reflectivity, correlation coefficient, and differential phase) from seven types of biological scatterers and one type of meteorological scatterer (rain). Models that discriminated among fewer classes and/or aggregated similar types into more inclusive classes classified with greater accuracy and higher probability. Bioscatterers that shared similarities in phenotype tended to misclassify against one another more frequently than against more dissimilar types, with the greatest degree of misclassification occurring among vertebrates. Polarimetric variables proved critical to classification performance and individual polarimetric variables played central roles in the discrimination of specific scatterers. Not surprisingly, purposely overfit RF models (in one case study) were our highest performing. Such models have a role to play in situations where the inclusion of natural history can play an outsized role in model performance. In the future, bioscatter classification will become more nuanced, pushing machine-learning model development to increasingly rely on independent validation of scatterer types and more precise knowledge of the physical and behavioral properties of the scatterer.

Remote Sensing

The potential of satellite remote sensing time series to uncover wetland phenology under unique challenges of tidal setting

While growth history of vegetation within upland systems is well studied, plant phenology within coastal tidal systems is less understood. Landscape-scale, satellite-derived indicators of plant greenness may not adequately represent seasonality of vegetation biomass and productivity within tidal wetlands due to limitations of cloud cover, satellite temporal frequency and attenu-ation of plant signals by tidal flooding. However, understanding plant phenology is necessary to gain insight into aboveground biomass, photosynthetic activity, and carbon sequestration. In this study we use a modeling approach to estimate plant greenness throughout a year in tidal wet-lands located within the San Francisco Bay Area, USA. We used variables such as EVI history, temperature, and elevation to predict plant greenness on a 14-day timestep. We found this ap-proach accurately estimated plant greenness, with larger error observed within more dynamic restored wetlands, particularly at early post-restoration stages. We also found modeled EVI can be used as an input variable into greenhouse gas models, allowing for an estimate of carbon se-questration and gross primary production. Our strategy can be further developed in future re-search by assessing restoration and management effects on wetland phenological dynamics and through incorporating the entire Sentinel-2 time-series once it becomes available within Google Earth Engine.

California

Coerced regimes: Management challenges in the Anthropocene

Management frequently creates system conditions that poorly mimic the conditions of a desirable self-organizing regime. Such management is ubiquitous across complex systems of people and nature and will likely intensify as these systems face rapid change. However, it is highly uncertain whether the costs (unintended consequences, including negative side effects) of management but also social dynamics can eventually outweigh benefits in the long term. We introduce the term “coerced regime” to conceptualize this management form and tie it into resilience theory. The concept encompasses proactive and reactive management to maintain desirable and mitigate undesirable regime conditions, respectively. A coerced regime can be quantified through a measure of the amount of management required to artificially maintain its desirable conditions. Coerced regimes comprise “ghosts” of self-sustaining desirable system regimes but ultimately become “dead regimes walking” when these regimes collapse as soon as management is discontinued. We demonstrate the broad application of coerced regimes using distinct complex systems of humans and nature (human subjects, aquatic and terrestrial environments, agriculture, and global climate). We discuss commonalities and differences between these examples to identify trade-offs between benefits and harms of management. The concept of coerced regimes can spur thinking and inform management about the duality of what we know and can envision versus what we do not know and therefore cannot envision: a pervasive sustainability conundrum as planet Earth swiftly moves toward a future without historical analogue

Ecology and Society

Challenge infection as a means of determining the rate of disease resistant Trichomonas gallinae-free birds in a population

Trichomonas gallinae -free pigeons and mourning doves were infected with the Jones' Barn strain of T. gallinae to determine the rate of disease resistant T. gallinae -free birds in each population. Although all birds became infected 88% of the pigeons were resistant to trichomoniasis while 82% of the mourning doves were resistant. It was concluded that these birds had been previously infected and spontaneously lost their trichomonad fauna while retaining their resistance to fatal infection.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

Historical effective population size of North American hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) and challenges to estimating trends in contemporary effective breeding population size from archived samples

Background Hoary bats ( Lasiurus cinereus ) are among the bat species most commonly killed by wind turbine strikes in the midwestern United States. The impact of this mortality on species census size is not understood, due in part to the difficulty of estimating population size for this highly migratory and elusive species. Genetic effective population size (Ne) could provide an index of changing census population size if other factors affecting Ne are stable. Methods We used the NeEstimator package to derive effective breeding population size (Nb) estimates for two temporally spaced cohorts: 93 hoary bats collected in 2009–2010 and an additional 93 collected in 2017–2018. We sequenced restriction-site associated polymorphisms and generated a de novo genome assembly to guide the removal of sex-linked and multi-copy loci, as well as identify physically linked markers. Results Analysis of the reference genome with psmc suggested at least a doubling of Ne in the last 100,000 years, likely exceeding Ne = 10,000 in the Holocene. Allele and genotype frequency analyses confirmed that the two cohorts were comparable, although some samples had unusually high or low observed heterozygosities. Additionally, the older cohort had lower mean coverage and greater variability in coverage, and batch effects of sampling locality were observed that were consistent with sample degradation. We therefore excluded samples with low coverage or outlier heterozygosity, as well as loci with sequence coverage far from the mode value, from the final data set. Prior to excluding these outliers, contemporary Nb estimates were significantly higher in the more recent cohort, but this finding was driven by high values for the 2018 sample year and low values for all other years. In the reduced data set, Nb did not differ significantly between cohorts. We found base substitutions to be strongly biased toward cytosine to thymine or the complement, and further partitioning loci by substitution type had a strong effect on Nb estimates. Minor allele frequency and base quality bias thresholds also had strong effects on Nb estimates. Instability of Nb with respect to common data filtering parameters and empirically identified factors prevented robust comparison of the two cohorts. Given that confidence intervals frequently included infinity as the stringency of data filtering increased, contemporary trends in Nb of North American hoary bats may not be tractable with the linkage disequilibrium method, at least using the protocol employed here.

PeerJ

Challenges to a molecular approach to prey identification in the Burmese python, Python molurus bivittatus

Molecular approaches to prey identification are increasingly useful in elucidating predator–prey relationships, and we aimed to investigate the feasibility of these methods to document the species identities of prey consumed by invasive Burmese pythons in Florida. We were particularly interested in the diet of young snakes, because visual identification of prey from this size class has proven difficult. We successfully extracted DNA from the gastrointestinal contents of 43 young pythons, as well as from several control samples, and attempted amplification of DNA mini-barcodes, a 130-bp region of COX1. Using a PNA clamp to exclude python DNA, we found that prey DNA was not present in sufficient quality for amplification of this locus in 86% of our samples. All samples from the GI tracts of young pythons contained only hair, and the six samples we were able to identify to species were hispid cotton rats. This suggests that young Burmese pythons prey predominantly on small mammals and that prey diversity among snakes of this size class is low. We discuss prolonged gastrointestinal transit times and extreme gastric breakdown as possible causes of DNA degradation that limit the success of a molecular approach to prey identification in Burmese pythons

PeerJ

Golden eagles in the U.S. and Canada: Status, trends, and conservation challenges

We reviewed the literature to assess status and population trends and to identify mortality factors affecting Golden Eagle populations in the U.S. and Canada. Nesting populations in Alaska and Canada are stable, but some nesting populations in the western U.S. have declined. Small but steady declines in the intermountain West have been associated with shrub loss and declining jackrabbit populations; declines in southern California have been attributed to urbanization. Migration counts in the eastern U.S. suggest a decline in Golden Eagles from the 1930s to the early 1970s, with a stable or increasing trend since the early 1970s. No significant trends in migration counts were reported for Golden Eagles in the western U.S. sincet he mid-1980s. Western migration count sites on the continental divide in the Rocky Mountains at or just north of the U.S.-Canadian border (49-51??N latitude) show potential to provide information on trends of Golden Eagle populations from Alaska and western Canada. Most eagle mortality is human related. This paper illustrates the need for more effective monitoring of Golden Eagle populations in North America.

Journal of Raptor Research

Landscape change in the southern Piedmont: challenges, solutions, and uncertainty across scales

The southern Piedmont of the southeastern United States epitomizes the complex and seemingly intractable problems and hard decisions that result from uncontrolled urban and suburban sprawl. Here we consider three recurrent themes in complicated problems involving complex systems: (1) scale dependencies and cross-scale, often nonlinear relationships; (2) resilience, in particular the potential for complex systems to move to alternate stable states with decreased ecological and/or economic value; and (3) uncertainty in the ability to understand and predict outcomes, perhaps particularly those that occur as a result of human impacts. We consider these issues in the context of landscape-level decision making, using as an example water resources and lotic systems in the Piedmont region of the southeastern United States.

Conservation Ecology