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USGS2018

Machine learning for ecosystem services

Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing and predicting the flows of these services to disaggregated beneficiaries. We use the Weka and ARIES software to produce two examples of DDM: firewood use in South Africa and biodiversity value in Sicily, respectively. Our South African example demonstrates that DDM (64–91% accuracy) can identify the areas where firewood use is within the top quartile with comparable accuracy as conventional modelling techniques (54–77% accuracy). The Sicilian example highlights how DDM can be made more accessible to decision makers, who show both capacity and willingness to engage with uncertainty information. Uncertainty estimates, produced as part of the DDM process, allow decision makers to determine what level of uncertainty is acceptable to them and to use their own expertise for potentially contentious decisions. We conclude that DDM has a clear role to play when modelling ecosystem services, helping produce interdisciplinary models and holistic solutions to complex socio-ecological issues.

Ecosystem Services↗

USGS2010

Osmium isotope and highly siderophile element systematics of the lunar crust

Coupled 187 Os/ 188 Os and highly siderophile element (HSE: Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, Pd, and Re) abundance data are reported for pristine lunar crustal rocks 60025, 62255, 65315 (ferroan anorthosites, FAN) and 76535, 78235, 77215 and a norite clast in 15455 (magnesian-suite rocks, MGS). Osmium isotopes permit more refined discrimination than previously possible of samples that have been contaminated by meteoritic additions and the new results show that some rocks, previously identified as pristine, contain meteorite-derived HSE. Low HSE abundances in FAN and MGS rocks are consistent with derivation from a strongly HSE-depleted lunar mantle. At the time of formation, the lunar floatation crust, represented by FAN, had 1.4 ?? 0.3 pg g - 1 Os, 1.5 ?? 0.6 pg g - 1 Ir, 6.8 ?? 2.7 pg g - 1 Ru, 16 ?? 15 pg g - 1 Pt, 33 ?? 30 pg g - 1 Pd and 0.29 ?? 0.10 pg g - 1 Re (??? 0.00002 ?? CI) and Re/Os ratios that were modestly elevated ( 187 Re/ 188 Os = 0.6 to 1.7) relative to CI chondrites. MGS samples are, on average, characterised by more elevated HSE abundances (??? 0.00007 ?? CI) compared with FAN. This either reflects contrasting mantle-source HSE characteristics of FAN and MGS rocks, or different mantle-crust HSE fractionation behaviour during production of these lithologies. Previous studies of lunar impact-melt rocks have identified possible elevated Ru and Pd in lunar crustal target rocks. The new results provide no supporting evidence for such enrichments. If maximum estimates for HSE in the lunar mantle are compared with FAN and MGS averages, crust-mantle concentration ratios (D-values) must be ??? 0.3. Such D-values are broadly similar to those estimated for partitioning between the terrestrial crust and upper mantle, with the notable exception of Re. Given the presumably completely different mode of origin for the primary lunar floatation crust and tertiary terrestrial continental crust, the potential similarities in crust-mantle HSE partitioning for the Earth and Moon are somewhat surprising. Low HSE abundances in the lunar crust, coupled with estimates of HSE concentrations in the lunar mantle implies there may be a 'missing component' of late-accreted materials (as much as 95%) to the Moon if the Earth/Moon mass-flux estimates are correct and terrestrial mantle HSE abundances were established by late accretion. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2019

What determines the downstream evolution of turbidity currents?

Seabed sediment flows called turbidity currents form some of the largest sediment accumulations, deepest canyons and longest channel systems on Earth. Only rivers transport comparable sediment volumes over such large areas; but there are far fewer measurements from turbidity currents, ensuring they are much more poorly understood. Turbidity currents differ fundamentally from rivers, as turbidity currents are driven by the sediment that they suspend. Fast turbidity currents can pick up sediment, and self-accelerate (ignite); whilst slow flows deposit sediment and dissipate. Self-acceleration cannot continue indefinitely, and flows might reach a near-uniform state (autosuspension). Here we show how turbidity currents evolve using the first detailed measurements from many locations along their pathway, which come from Monterey Canyon offshore California. All flows initially ignite. Typically, initially-faster flows then achieve near-uniform velocities (autosuspension), whilst slower flows dissipate. Fractional increases in initial velocity favour much longer runout, and a new model explains this bifurcating behaviour. However, the only flow during less-stormy summer months is anomalous as it self-accelerated, which is perhaps due to erosion of surficial-mud layer with fine sands mid-canyon. Turbidity current evolution is therefore highly sensitive to both initial velocities and seabed character.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2010

Mg isotope constraints on soil pore-fluid chemistry: Evidence from Santa Cruz, California

Mg isotope ratios ( 26 Mg/ 24 Mg) are reported in soil pore-fluids, rain and seawater, grass and smectite from a 90 kyr old soil, developed on an uplifted marine terrace from Santa Cruz, California. Rain water has an invariant 26 Mg/ 24 Mg ratio (expressed as δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg ) at −0.79 ± 0.05‰, identical to seawater δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg . Detrital smectite (from the base of the soil profile, and therefore unweathered) has a δ26Mg"> δ26Mg value of 0.11‰, potentially enriched in 26 Mg by up to 0.3‰ compared to the bulk silicate Earth Mg isotope composition (although within the range of all terrestrial silicates). The soil pore-waters show a continuous profile with depth for δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg , ranging from −0.99‰ near the surface to −0.43‰ at the base of the profile. Shallow pore-waters (<1 m) have δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg values that are similar to, or slightly lower than the rain waters. This implies that the degree of biological cycling of Mg in the pore-waters is relatively small and is quantified as <32%, calculated using the average Mg isotope enrichment factor between grass and rain ( δ26 Mggrass- δ26 Mgrain> δ26 Mggrass- δ26 Mgrain ) of 0.21‰. The deep pore-waters (1–15 m deep) have δ26 Mg> δ26 Mg values that are intermediate between the smectite and rain, ranging from −0.76‰ to −0.43‰, and show a similar trend with depth compared to Sr isotope ratios. The similarity between Sr and Mg isotope ratios confirms that the Mg in the pore-waters can be explained by a mixture between rain and smectite derived Mg, despite the fact that Mg and Sr concentrations may be buffered by the exchangeable reservoir. However, whilst Sr isotope ratios in the pore-waters span almost the complete range between mineral and rain inputs, Mg isotopes compositions are much closer to the rain inputs. If Mg and Sr isotope ratios are controlled uniquely by a mixture, the data can be used to estimate the mineral weathering inputs to the pore-waters, by correcting for the rain inputs. This isotopic correction is compared to the commonly used chloride correction for precipitation inputs. A consistent interpretation is only possible if Mg isotope ratios are fractionated either by the precipitation of a secondary Mg bearing phase, not detected by conventional methods, or selective leaching of 24 Mg from smectite. There is therefore dual control on the Mg isotopic composition of the pore-waters, mixing of two inputs with distinct isotopic compositions, modified by fractionation. The data provide (1) further evidence for Mg isotope fractionation at the surface of the Earth and (2) the first field evidence of Mg isotope fractionation during uptake by natural plants. The coherent behaviour of Mg isotope ratios in soil environments is encouraging for the development of Mg isotope ratios as a quantitative tracer of both weathering inputs of Mg to waters, and the physicochemical processes that cycle Mg, a major cation linked to the carbon cycle, during continental weathering.

California↗

USGS2013

Quantifying mineral abundances of complex mixtures by coupling spectral deconvolution of SWIR spectra (2.1-2.4 μm) and regression tree analysis

This paper presents a methodology for assessing mineral abundances of mixtures having more than two constituents using absorption features in the 2.1-2.4 μm wavelength region. In the first step, the absorption behaviour of mineral mixtures is parameterised by exponential Gaussian optimisation. Next, mineral abundances are predicted by regression tree analysis using these parameters as inputs. The approach is demonstrated on a range of prepared samples with known abundances of kaolinite, dioctahedral mica, smectite, calcite and quartz and on a set of field samples from Morocco. The latter contained varying quantities of other minerals, some of which did not have diagnostic absorption features in the 2.1-2.4 μm region. Cross validation showed that the prepared samples of kaolinite, dioctahedral mica, smectite and calcite were predicted with a root mean square error (RMSE) less than 9 wt.%. For the field samples, the RMSE was less than 8 wt.% for calcite, dioctahedral mica and kaolinite abundances. Smectite could not be well predicted, which was attributed to spectral variation of the cations within the dioctahedral layered smectites. Substitution of part of the quartz by chlorite at the prediction phase hardly affected the accuracy of the predicted mineral content; this suggests that the method is robust in handling the omission of minerals during the training phase. The degree of expression of absorption components was different between the field sample and the laboratory mixtures. This demonstrates that the method should be calibrated and trained on local samples. Our method allows the simultaneous quantification of more than two minerals within a complex mixture and thereby enhances the perspectives of spectral analysis for mineral abundances.

Geoderma↗

USGS2011

Characterization of the Cretaceous aquifer structure of the Meskala region of the Essaouira Basin, Morocco

The aquifer of early Cretaceous age in the Meskala region of the Essaouira Basin is defined by interpretation of geological drilling data of oil and hydrogeological wells, field measurement and analysis of in situ fracture orientations, and the application of a morphostructural method to identify lineaments. These analyzes are used to develop a stratigraphic–structural model of the aquifer delimited by fault zones of two principal orientations: NNE and WNW. These fault zones define fault blocks that range in area from 4 to 150 km 2 . These blocks correspond either to elevated zones (horsts) or depressed zones (grabens). This structural setting with faults blocks of Meskala region is in accordance with the structure of the whole Essaouira Basin. Fault zones disrupt the continuity of the aquifer throughout the study area, create recharge and discharge zones, and create dip to the units from approximately 10° to near vertical in various orientations. Fracture measurements and morphometric-lineament analyzes help to identify unmapped faults, and represent features important to groundwater hydraulics and water quality within fault blocks. The above geologic features will enable a better understanding of the behaviour and hydro-geo-chemical and hydrodynamics of groundwater in the Meskala aquifer.

Essaouira Basin↗

USGS2022

Spatial and temporal variability in lake trout diets in Lake Ontario as revealed by stomach contents and stable isotopes

Lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) are an ecologically and economically important piscivore with reported differences in diet and feeding behaviour throughout its range. Eleven stomach content and stable isotope-based metrics were used to describe diets of 349 lake trout between two years (2013 and 2018) and among geographic zones (west, central, east, Kingston basin) in Lake Ontario. Using individual (e.g., volumetric, %V) and aggregate (e.g., index of relative importance, %IRI) diet metrics, we found an overwhelming dominance of alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) in lake trout diets among some zones in 2013 (%V = 23.3 – 92.7; %IRI = 12.2 – 99.5) and all zones in 2018 (%V = 83.9 – 96.7; %IRI = 96.5 – 100). Round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) and rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) were secondary lake trout prey items with relative diet percentages only marginally reflected by spatial and temporal variation in prey abundance (round goby: %V = 1.0 – 33.3, %IRI = 0.1 – 13.2; rainbow smelt: %V = 2.5 – 54.0, %IRI = 0.1 – 54.0). Carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopic niche areas and orientations were similar across all year-zone combinations reinforcing temporal and spatial consistency in lake trout diet. The findings of this study advance the time series in describing Lake Ontario lake trout diets and can be used to complement stock assessments and management decisions associated with carrying capacity for the diverse salmonid community.

Lake Ontario↗

USGS2020

Anticipating future learning affects current control decisions: A comparison between passive and active adaptive management in an epidemiological setting

Infectious disease epidemics present a difficult task for policymakers, requiring the implementation of control strategies under significant time constraints and uncertainty. Mathematical models can be used to predict the outcome of control interventions, providing useful information to policymakers in the event of such an epidemic. However, these models suffer in the early stages of an outbreak from a lack of accurate, relevant information regarding the dynamics and spread of the disease and the efficacy of control. As such, recommendations provided by these models are often incorporated in an ad hoc fashion, as and when more reliable information becomes available. In this work, we show that such trial-and-error-type approaches to management, which do not formally take into account the resolution of uncertainty and how control actions affect this, can lead to sub-optimal management outcomes. We compare three approaches to managing a theoretical epidemic: a non-adaptive management (AM) approach that does not use real-time outbreak information to adapt control, a passive AM approach that incorporates real-time information if and when it becomes available, and an active AM approach that explicitly incorporates the future resolution of uncertainty through gathering real-time information into its initial recommendations. The structured framework of active AM encourages the specification of quantifiable objectives, models of system behaviour and possible control and monitoring actions, followed by an iterative learning and control phase that is able to employ complex control optimisations and resolve system uncertainty. The result is a management framework that is able to provide dynamic, long-term projections to help policymakers meet the objectives of management. We investigate in detail the effect of different methods of incorporating up-to-date outbreak information. We find that, even in a highly simplified system, the method of incorporating new data can lead to different results that may influence initial policy decisions, with an active AM approach to management providing better information that can lead to more desirable outcomes from an epidemic.

Journal of Theoretical Biology↗

USGS2016

Results of the eruptive column model inter-comparison study

This study compares and evaluates one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) numerical models of volcanic eruption columns in a set of different inter-comparison exercises. The exercises were designed as a blind test in which a set of common input parameters was given for two reference eruptions, representing a strong and a weak eruption column under different meteorological conditions. Comparing the results of the different models allows us to evaluate their capabilities and target areas for future improvement. Despite their different formulations, the 1D and 3D models provide reasonably consistent predictions of some of the key global descriptors of the volcanic plumes. Variability in plume height, estimated from the standard deviation of model predictions, is within ~ 20% for the weak plume and ~ 10% for the strong plume. Predictions of neutral buoyancy level are also in reasonably good agreement among the different models, with a standard deviation ranging from 9 to 19% (the latter for the weak plume in a windy atmosphere). Overall, these discrepancies are in the range of observational uncertainty of column height. However, there are important differences amongst models in terms of local properties along the plume axis, particularly for the strong plume. Our analysis suggests that the simplified treatment of entrainment in 1D models is adequate to resolve the general behaviour of the weak plume. However, it is inadequate to capture complex features of the strong plume, such as large vortices, partial column collapse, or gravitational fountaining that strongly enhance entrainment in the lower atmosphere. We conclude that there is a need to more accurately quantify entrainment rates, improve the representation of plume radius, and incorporate the effects of column instability in future versions of 1D volcanic plume models.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn - and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO 2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn -eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

Bismark volcanic arc, New Britain Island, Ulawun v↗

USGS2022

A reappraisal of explosive–effusive silicic eruption dynamics: Syn-eruptive assembly of lava from the products of cryptic fragmentation

Silicic volcanic eruptions range in style from gently effusive to highly explosive, and may switch style unpredictably during a single eruption. Direct observations of subaerial rhyolitic eruptions (Chaiten 2008, Cordón Caulle 2011–2012, Chile) challenged long-standing paradigms of explosive and effusive eruptive styles and led to the formulation of new models of hybrid activity. However, the processes that govern such hybrid explosive–effusive activity remain poorly understood. Here, we bring together observations of the well-studied 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption with new textural and petrologic data on erupted products, and video and still imagery of the eruption. We infer that all of the activity – explosive, effusive, and hybrid – was fed by explosive fragmentation at depth, and that effusive behaviour arose from sticking and sintering, in the shallow vent region, of the clastic products of deeper, cryptic fragmentation. We use a scaling approach to determine that there is sufficient time available, during emplacement, for diffusive pyroclast degassing and sintering to produce a degassed plug that occludes the shallow conduit, feeding clastogenic, apparently effusive, lava-like deposits. Based on evidence from Cordón Caulle, and from other similar eruptions, we further argue that hybrid explosive–effusive activity is driven by episodic gas-fracking of the occluding lava plug, fed by the underlying pressurized ash- and pyroclast-laden region. The presence of a pressurized pocket of ash-laden gas within the conduit provides a mechanism for generation of harmonic tremor, and for syn-eruptive laccolith intrusion, both of which were features of the Cordón Caulle eruption. We conclude that the cryptic fragmentation models is more consistent with available evidence than the prevailing model for effusion of silicic lava that assume coherent non-fragmental rise of magma from depth to the surface without wholesale explosive fragmentation.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2006

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2011

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2011

Assessing the potential for luminescence dating of basalts

The possibility of dating basalt using luminescence was tested on four samples with independent age control from Cima volcanic field, California, with the ultimate aim of assessing whether the technique could be used to date sediments on the surface of Mars. Previous analysis of these samples had demonstrated that the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) signal is most suitable for dating as it showed the lowest fading rate among various luminescence signals. In this study, changes in equivalent dose as a function of preheat are described. The ages for the two youngest Cima samples agree with the independent ages based on cosmogenic nuclide measurements (12.0 ± 0.8 ka). In the two older samples (dated to 320 and 580 ka by K–Ar), the luminescence behaviour is more complex and the form of the IRSL decay curve is seen to vary with dose. Mathematical fitting is used to isolate two components and their intensities are used to produce dose response curves. The slower component yields a larger equivalent dose. However, even using this component and after correction for fading, the ages obtained for the older samples are younger than the K–Ar ages.

Quaternary Geochronology↗

USGS2015

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2022

Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation in the Stura Valley, southwestern European Alps

We combined data from geomorphologic surveys, glacial modelling, and 10 Be exposure ages of boulders on moraines, to investigate the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the early retreat glacial phases in the Stura Valley of the Maritime Alps. We used the exposure ages to reconstruct the timing of standstills or readvances which interrupted the post-LGM withdrawal, initiated ∼24 ka. We mapped and dated the frontal moraines of a first glacial standstill/readvance at a short distance (∼7 km) from the maximum external limit of the LGM, which occurred at ∼22 ka, and a second one at ∼19 ka (Bühl stadial). This morpho-chronologic succession is congruent with that obtained in the adjacent Gesso Valley and, combined with the similarity of Equilibrium Line Altitude values, demonstrates a consistent glacial response in the Maritime Alps to climatic forcing. Our data are chronologically consistent with those of the southern flank of the European Alps, stressing not only a general synchroneity of the LGM across the various sectors, but also that of a LGM recessional standstill or readvance at ∼22 ka. The short distance between the LGM moraines and the recessionary phase moraines, and minimal difference in ELA indicate a modest variation in the mass balance of the Maritime Alps glaciers during this time interval. A similar modest variation between LGM and the first recessional phase glacier mass balance is also found throughout the western sector of the Southern Alps but is considerably more pronounced for the glaciers of the central-eastern sectors. This behaviour can be explained by the interplay between the moisture supplied by southern currents sourced in the Western Mediterranean and that advected by the westerlies sourced in the North Atlantic, which affected the various sectors of the Southern Alps differently.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2000

Perturbations to Saturn's F-ring strands at their closest approach to Prometheus

The strange morphology of the F ring of Saturn is thought to be caused by the perturbing effects of two close satellites, Prometheus and Pandora. The F ring and the satellites also experience periodic close encounters as a result of differential precession arising from Saturn's oblateness. Using the orbits of the F-ring strands derived by Murray et al. (1997, Icarus 129, 304-316) the behaviour of the ring particles at their closest approach to Prometheus is analysed using numerical simulations. The results show that a gap and a wave are formed in the ring at each encounter with the satellite. However, the gap is expected to have a short lifetime due to keplerian shear.

Planetary and Space Science↗

USGS2003

Optical dating of tufa via in situ aeolian sand grains: A case example from the Southern High Plains, USA

Precipitated carbonates (commonly termed tufas or travertines) maybe of considerable utility for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Their potential, however, for such reconstruction is commonly limited by difficulties associated with their absolute age control. Attempts to date such deposits via uranium series techniques have been complicated by their chemically open behaviour. Here we describe an alternative approach to date tufa deposits associated with ephemeral saline lake basins from the Southern High Plains, USA. We have optically dated sand grains of a mixed aeolian/fluvial (spring fed) origin as the integrating dosimeter. We assume that the grains are fully resetting prior to their incorporation into the tufa deposits and employ a time-dependent disequilibrium dosimetric model to account for the build-up of uranium series daughter products. The approach was applied to a set of four samples with known stratigraphic association. We obtained stratigraphically sensible optical ages ranging from 78??8 to 56??4ka. These data are consistent with existing palaeoenvironmental models of regional recharge. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conference Paper↗