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Five-year external reviews of the eight Department of Interior Climate Science Centers: Southeast Climate Science Center

In 2008, the U.S. Congress authorized the establishment of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI). Housed administratively within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NCCWSC is part of the DOI’s ongoing mission to meet the challenges of climate change and its effects on wildlife and aquatic resources. From 2010 through 2012, NCCWSC established eight regional DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs). Each of these regional CSCs operated with the mission to “synthesize and integrate climate change impact data and develop tools that the Department’s managers and partners can use when managing the Department’s land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources” (Salazar 2009). The model developed by NCCWSC for the regional CSCs employed a dual approach of a federal USGS-staffed component and a parallel host-university component established competitively through a 5-year cooperative agreement with NCCWSC. At the conclusion of this 5-year agreement, a review of each CSC was undertaken, with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) review in February 2016. The SE CSC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, and is physically housed within the NCSU Department of Applied Ecology along with the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit (CFWRU), and the North Carolina Agromedicine Institute. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Southeast Regional Climate Hub is based at NCSU as is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southeast Regional Climate Center, the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, the NOAA National Weather Service, the State Climate Office of North Carolina, and the U.S. Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center. This creates a strong core of organizations operating in close proximity focused on climate issues. The geographic area covered by the SE CSC represents all or part of 16 states and the Caribbean Islands and has overlapping boundaries with seven Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): Appalachian LCC, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers LCC, Gulf Coast Prairie LCC, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC, Peninsular Florida LCC, South Atlantic LCC, and Caribbean LCC. The SE CSC region also encompasses 134 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges and 89 National Park Service (NPS) units and is home to 11 federally recognized and 54 state recognized tribes.

Report

Tracing sources of nitrate in snowmelt runoff using a high-resolution isotopic technique

The denitrifier method to determine the dual isotopic composition (??15N and ??18O) of nitrate is well suited for studies of nitrogen contributions to streams during runoff events. This method requires only 70 nmol of NO3- and enables high throughput of samples. We studied nitrate sources to a headwater stream during snowmelt by generating a high-temporal resolution dataset at the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Vermont, USA. In the earliest phase of runoff, stream NO3- concentrations were highest and stream discharge, NO3- concentrations, and ??18O of NO 3- generally tracked one another during diurnal melting. The isotopic composition of stream NO3- varied in-between atmospheric and groundwater NO 3- end members indicating a direct contribution of atmospherically-derived NO3- from the snow pack to the stream. During the middle to late phases of snowmelt, the source shifted toward soil NO3- entering the stream via shallow subsurface flow paths. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters

Precipitation isotopes link regional climate patterns to water supply in a tropical mountain forest, eastern Puerto Rico

Like many mountainous areas in the tropics, watersheds in the Luquillo Mountains of eastern Puerto Rico have abundant rainfall and stream discharge and provide much of the water supply for the densely populated metropolitan areas nearby. Projected changes in regional temperature and atmospheric dynamics as a result of global warming suggest that water availability will be affected by changes in rainfall patterns. It is essential to understand the relative importance of different weather systems to water supply to determine how changes in rainfall patterns, interacting with geology and vegetation, will affect the water balance. To help determine the links between climate and water availability, stable isotope signatures of precipitation from different weather systems were established to identify those that are most important in maintaining streamflow and groundwater recharge. Precipitation stable isotope values in the Luquillo Mountains had a large range, from fog/cloud water with δ 2 H, δ 18 O values as high as +12 ‰, −0.73 ‰ to tropical storm rain with values as low as −127 ‰, −16.8 ‰. Temporal isotope values exhibit a reverse seasonality from those observed in higher latitude continental watersheds, with higher isotopic values in the winter and lower values in the summer. Despite the higher volume of convective and low-pressure system rainfall, stable isotope analyses indicated that under the current rainfall regime, frequent trade -wind orographic showers contribute much of the groundwater recharge and stream base flow. Analysis of rain events using 20 years of 15 -minute resolution data at a mountain station (643 m) showed an increasing trend in rainfall amount, in agreement with increased precipitable water in the atmosphere, but differing from climate model projections of drying in the region. The mean intensity of rain events also showed an increasing trend. The determination of recharge sources from stable isotope tracers indicates that water supply will be affected if regional atmospheric dynamics change trade- wind orographic rainfall patterns in the Caribbean.

Luquillo Mountains

Linking soil organic matter dynamics and erosion-induced terrestrial carbon sequestration at different landform positions

Recently, the potential for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration by soil erosion and deposition has received increased interest. Erosion and deposition constitute a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide relative to a preerosional state or a noneroding scenario, if the posterosion watershed C balance is increased due to (1) partial replacement of eroded C by new photosynthate in the eroded site; and (2) preservation from decomposition of at least some eroded soil organic carbon (SOC) arriving in depositional settings. Little is known, however, about differences in C dynamics at different erosional and depositional landform positions within the same eroding system. We determined the contribution of different landform positions to erosion-induced terrestrial C sequestration by measuring rates of net primary productivity (NPP), replacement of eroded C, and decomposition of organic matter (OM) at four categorically different landform positions within a naturally eroding toposequence in northern California. We found that eroded C is replaced by NPP 15 times over in the summit of the site studied and 5 times over in the slope. Profile-averaged, long-term rate constant for SOM decomposition was 2 to 14 times slower in the depositional settings compared with that in eroding slopes. As a result, the inventory of C in the depositional settings was 2 to 3 times larger than that of the eroding positions. Owing to both C replacement at eroding sites and reduced rates of OM decomposition in depositional sites, soil erosion constitutes a C sink from the atmosphere at our study site.

California

The influence of formation material properties on the response of water levels in wells to Earth tides and atmospheric loading

The water level in an open well can change in response to deformation of the surrounding material, either because of applied strains (tidal or tectonic) or surface loading by atmospheric pressure changes. Under conditions of no vertical fluid flow and negligible well bore storage (static-confined conditions), the sensitivities to these effects depend on the elastic properties and porosity which characterize the surrounding medium. For a poroelastic medium, high sensitivity to applied areal strains occurs for low porosity, while high sensitivity to atmospheric loading occurs for high porosity; both increase with decreasing compressibility of the solid matrix. These material properties also influence vertical fluid flow induced by areally extensive deformation and can be used to define two types of hydraulic diffusivity which govern pressure diffusion, one for applied strain and one for surface loading. The hydraulic diffusivity which governs pressure diffusion in response to surface loading is slightly smaller than that which governs fluid flow in response to applied strain. Given the static-confined response of a water well to atmospheric loading and Earth tides, the in situ drained matrix compressibility and porosity (and hence the one-dimensional specific storage) can be estimated. Analysis of the static-confined response of five wells to atmospheric loading and Earth tides gives generally reasonable estimates for material properties.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth

Global methane budget 2000-2020

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH 4 ) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH 4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH 4 emissions compared to those of CO 2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH 4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH 4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH 4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH 4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH 4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH 4 yr −1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH 4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH 4 yr −1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH 4 yr −1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH 4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH 4 yr −1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty ( ∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH 4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH 4 yr −1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH 4 yr −1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH 4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH 4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH 4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning.

Earth System Science Data

Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, followed by a description of the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion, and lastly a description of the data being published as part of this report.

California;Oregon;Washington

Preliminary analysis of down-core biotic assemblages Bob Allen Keys, Everglades National Park, Florida Bay

Introduction A series of short piston cores (< 2m) were taken from eleven stations in Florida Bay in May, 1994 by researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (St. Petersburg, FL., Woods Hole, MA., and Denver CO.) in cooperation with South Florida Water Management District, and the Everglades National Park, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Core 6A from Bob Allen Keys (25° 1.391” N, 80°39.41” W) penetrated 172 cm of Holocene sediments in 0.6 m of water on a grass covered mud bank, approximately 1.75 miles (2.82 km) east of the water monitoring station on the southern end of the Bob Allen Keys. Core 6A was sampled for particle size, insoluble residue, water content, loss on ignition, Pb 210 , Rasup>222, and paleontologic analyses. Here we present the results of the preliminary paleontologic analyses of the biotic components from core #6A. The Everglades/Florida Bay ecosystem has formed over the last 5000 years at the southern tip of peninsular Florida. Here it has been influenced by Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters, and by tropical and subtropical climatic regimes. This location ensures that over time the ecosystem has undergone climatic changes on both a seasonal and long term basis, and that it has been subjected to many major storms. Additionally, in the last century, the hydrologic regime of the region has been altered profoundly through construction of a canal system to control flooding in southern Florida. This system regulates the timing and amount of freshwater flow into Florida Bay. Recently, algal blooms, seagrass, and sponge die-offs, and declining numbers of shellfish, have been reported in Florida Bay; although it has been assumed that these changes have resulted from human alteration of freshwater flow into the bay, this assumption has not been rigorously tested. The research described here is part of a project designed to examine the history of the Everglades/Florida Bay ecosystem over the last 150 years and to test assumptions of cause and effect. The purpose of the project is two-fold; first, to determine the characteristics of the ecosystem prior to significant human-induced alteration, including the natural range of variation in the ecosystem. This information will establish a baseline for restoration of the system. Second, the project aims to establish the extent, range, and timing of changes to the ecosystem over the last 150 years, and to determine whether these changes correlate with human alteration of the environment, or meteorological patterns, such as precipitation and major storms, or a combination of factors.

Florida

Research needs for finely resolved fossil carbon emissions

Scientific research on the global carbon cycle has emerged as a high priority in biogeochemistry, climate studies, and global change policy. The emission of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuel combustion is a dominant driver of the current net carbon fluxes between the land, the oceans, and the atmosphere, and it is a key contributor to the rise in modern radiative forcing. Contrary to a commonly held perception, our quantitative knowledge about these emissions is insufficient to satisfy current scientific and policy needs. A more highly spatially and temporally resolved quantification of the social and economic drivers of fossil fuel combustion, and the resulting CO 2 emissions, is essential to supporting scientific and policy progress. In this article, a new community of emissions researchers called the CO 2 Fossil Fuel Emission Effort (CO 2 FFEE) outlines a research agenda to meet the need for improved fossil fuel CO 2 emissions information and solicits comment from the scientific community and research agencies.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Experimental drought in a tropical rain forest increases soil carbon dioxide losses to the atmosphere

Climate models predict precipitation changes for much of the humid tropics, yet few studies have investigated the potential consequences of drought on soil carbon (C) cycling in this important biome. In wet tropical forests, drought could stimulate soil respiration via overall reductions in soil anoxia, but previous research suggests that litter decomposition is positively correlated with high rainfall fluxes that move large quantities of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from the litter layer to the soil surface. Thus, reduced rainfall could also limit C delivery to the soil surface, reducing respiration rates. We conducted a throughfall manipulation experiment to investigate how 25% and 50% reductions in rainfall altered both C movement into soils and the effects of those DOM fluxes on soil respiration rates. In response to the experimental drought, soil respiration rates increased in both the −25% and −50% treatments. Throughfall fluxes were reduced by 26% and 55% in the −25% and −50% treatments, respectively. However, total DOM fluxes leached from the litter did not vary between treatments, because the concentrations of leached DOM reaching the soil surface increased in response to the simulated drought. Annual DOM concentrations averaged 7.7 ± 0.8, 11.2 ± 0.9, and 15.8 ± 1.2 mg C/L in the control, −25%, and −50% plots, respectively, and DOM concentrations were positively correlated with soil respiration rates. A laboratory incubation experiment confirmed the potential importance of DOM concentration on soil respiration rates, suggesting that this mechanism could contribute to the increase in CO 2 fluxes observed in the reduced rainfall plots. Across all plots, the data suggested that soil CO 2 fluxes were partially regulated by the magnitude and concentration of soluble C delivered to the soil, but also by soil moisture and soil oxygen availability. Together, our data suggest that declines in precipitation in tropical rain forests could drive higher CO 2 fluxes to the atmosphere both via increased soil O 2 availability and through responses to elevated DOM concentrations.

Golfo Dulce Forest Reserve

Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system

Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3??C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3-6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50-80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30-50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land-atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

Global Change Biology

Controls on nitrogen flux in alpine/subalpine watersheds of Colorado

High‐altitude watersheds in the Front Range of Colorado show symptoms of advanced stages of nitrogen excess, despite having less nitrogen in atmospheric deposition than other regions where watersheds retain nitrogen. In two alpine/subalpine subbasins of the Loch Vale watershed, atmospheric deposition of NO 3 − plus NH 4 + was 3.2–5.5 kg N ha −1 , and watershed export was 1.8–3.9 kg N ha −1 for water years 1992–1997. Annual N export increased in years with greater input of N, but most of the additional N was retained in the watershed, indicating that parts of the ecosystem are nitrogen‐limited. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were greatest in subsurface water of talus landscapes, where mineralization and nitrification augment high rates of atmospheric deposition of N. Tundra landscapes had moderately high DIN concentrations, whereas forest and wetland landscapes had low concentrations, indicating little export of nitrogen from these landscapes. Between the two subbasins the catchment of Icy Brook had greater retention of nitrogen than that of Andrews Creek because of landscape and hydrologic characteristics that favor greater N assimilation in both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These results suggest that export of N from alpine/subalpine watersheds is caused by a combination of direct flushing of N from atmospheric deposition and release of N from ecosystem biogeochemical processes (N cycling). Sensitivity of alpine ecosystems in the western United States to atmospheric deposition of N is a function of landscape heterogeneity, hydrologic flow paths, and climatic extremes that limit primary productivity and microbial activity, which, in turn, control retention and release of nitrogen. Conceptual and mechanistic models of N excess that have been developed for forested ecosystems need to be modified in order to predict the response of alpine ecosystems to future changes in climate and atmospheric deposition of N.

Water Resources Research

THEMIS VIS and IR observations of a high-altitude Martian dust devil

The Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) imaged a Martian dust devil in both visible and thermal-infrared wavelengths on January 30, 2004. We believe this is the first documented infrared observation of an extraterrestrial dust devil, and the highest to be directly observed at more than 16 kilometers above the equatorial geoid of Mars. This dust devil measured over 700 meters in height and 375 meters across, and the strongest infrared signature was given by atmospheric dust absorption in the 9-micron range (THEMIS IR band 5). In addition to having formed in the extremely low-pressure environment of about 1 millibar, this dust devil is of particular interest because it was observed at 16:06 local time. This is an unusually late time of day to find dust devils on Mars, during a period when rapid surface cooling typically reduces the boundary-layer turbulence necessary to form these convective vortices. Understanding the mechanisms for dust-devil formation under such extreme circumstances will help to constrain theories of atmospheric dynamics, and of dust lifting and transport mechanisms on Mars.

Geophysical Research Letters

The framework of a coastal hazards model: A tool for predicting the impact of severe storms

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with the critical information they need to respond quickly and efficiently and to increase public safety and mitigate damage associated with powerful coastal storms. For instance, high resolution local models will predict detailed wave heights, breaking patterns, and current strengths for use in warning systems for harbor-mouth navigation and densely populated coastal regions where beach safety is threatened. The offline applications are intended to equip coastal managers with the information needed to manage and allocate their resources effectively to protect sections of coast that may be most vulnerable to future severe storms.

California

Geospatial characteristics of Florida's coastal and offshore environments: Distribution of important habitats for coastal and offshore biological resources and offshore sand resources

The Geospatial Characteristics GeoPDF of Florida's Coastal and Offshore Environments is a comprehensive collection of geospatial data describing the political boundaries and natural resources of Florida. This interactive map provides spatial information on bathymetry, sand resources, and locations of important habitats (for example, Essential Fish Habitats (EFH), nesting areas, strandings) for marine invertebrates, fish, reptiles, birds, and marine mammals. The map should be useful to coastal resource managers and others interested in marine habitats and submerged obstructions of Florida's coastal region. In particular, as oil and gas explorations continue to expand, the map can be used to explore information regarding sensitive areas and resources in the State of Florida. Users of this geospatial database will have access to synthesized information in a variety of scientific disciplines concerning Florida's coastal zone. This powerful tool provides a one-stop assembly of data that can be tailored to fit the needs of many natural resource managers. The map was originally developed to assist the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE) and coastal resources managers with planning beach restoration projects. The BOEMRE uses a systematic approach in planning the development of submerged lands of the Continental Shelf seaward of Florida's territorial waters. Such development could affect the environment. BOEMRE is required to ascertain the existing physical, biological, and socioeconomic conditions of the submerged lands and estimate the impact of developing these lands. Data sources included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, BOEMRE, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Geographic Data Library, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Natural Areas Inventory, and the State of Florida, Bureau of Archeological Research. Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) compliant metadata are provided as attached xml files for all geographic information system (GIS) layers.

Florida

Geospatial characteristics of Florida's coastal and offshore environments: Coastal habitats, artificial reefs, wrecks, dumping grounds, harbor obstructions and offshore sand resources

The Geospatial Characteristics GeoPDF of Florida's Coastal and Offshore Environments is a comprehensive collection of geospatial data describing the political boundaries and natural resources of Florida. This interactive map provides spatial information on bathymetry, sand resources, coastal habitats, artificial reefs, shipwrecks, dumping grounds, and harbor obstructions. The map should be useful to coastal resource managers and others interested in marine habitats and submerged obstructions of Florida's coastal region. In particular, as oil and gas explorations continue to expand, the map may be used to explore information regarding sensitive areas and resources in the State of Florida. Users of this geospatial database will have access to synthesized information in a variety of scientific disciplines concerning Florida's coastal zone. This powerful tool provides a one-stop assembly of data that can be tailored to fit the needs of many natural resource managers. The map was originally developed to assist the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE) and coastal resources managers with planning beach restoration projects. The BOEMRE uses a systematic approach in planning the development of submerged lands of the Continental Shelf seaward of Florida's territorial waters. Such development could affect the environment. BOEMRE is required to ascertain the existing physical, biological, and socioeconomic conditions of the submerged lands and estimate the impact of developing these lands. Data sources included the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, BOEMRE, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Geographic Data Library, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Florida Natural Areas Inventory, and the State of Florida, Bureau of Archeological Research. Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) compliant metadata are provided as attached xml files for all geographic information system (GIS) layers.

Florida

Executive summary. In Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report

Central to life on Earth, carbon is essential to the molecular makeup of all living things and plays a key role in regulating global climate. To understand carbon’s role in these processes, researchers measure and evaluate carbon stocks and fluxes. A stock is the quantity of carbon contained in a pool or reservoir in the Earth system (e.g., carbon in forest trees), and a flux is the direction and rate of carbon’s transfer between pools (e.g., the movement of carbon from the atmosphere into forest trees during photosynthesis). This document, the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2), examines the patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes—collectively called the “carbon cycle.” Emphasis is given to these patterns in specific sectors (e.g., agriculture and energy) and ecosystems (e.g., forests and coastal waters) and to the response of the carbon cycle to human activity. The purpose of SOCCR2 is to assess the current state of the North American carbon cycle and to present recent advances in understanding the factors that influence it. Concentrating on North America—Canada, the United States, and Mexico—the report describes carbon cycling for air, land, inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs), and coastal waters (see Figure ES.1, p. 23). The questions framing the publication A U.S. Carbon Cycle Science Plan (Michalak et al., 2011) inspired development of three slightly modified questions that guide SOCCR2’s content and focus on North America in a global context: How have natural processes and human actions affected the global carbon cycle on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean and other aquatic systems, and at ecosystem interfaces (e.g., coastal, wetland, and urban-rural)? How have socioeconomic trends affected atmospheric levels of the primary carbon-containing gases, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)? How have species, ecosystems, natural resources, and human systems been impacted by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, associated changes in climate, and carbon management decisions and practices? SOCCR2 synthesizes the most recent understanding of carbon cycling in North America, assessing new carbon cycle findings and information, the state of knowledge regarding core methods used to study the carbon cycle, and future research needed to best inform carbon management and policy options. Focusing on scientific developments in the decade since the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR1; CCSP 2007), SOCCR2 summarizes the past, current, and projected state of carbon sources, sinks, and natural processes, as well as contributions by human activities. In addition to CO2 and CH4, the report sometimes discusses nitrous oxide (N2O), a GHG associated with activities and processes that affect fluxes of carbon gases.1 SOCCR2 also describes improvements in analysis tools; developments in decision support; and new insights into ecosystem carbon cycling, human causes of changes in the carbon cycle, and social science perspectives on carbon. Since publication of SOCCR1, coordinated research from agencies in the three North American countries has enabled innovative observational, analytical, and modeling capabilities to further advance understanding of the North American carbon cycle (see Appendix D: Carbon Measurement Approaches and Accounting Frameworks, p. 834). Some of the report’s main conclusions, based on the Key Findings of each chapter, are highlighted in Box ES.1, Main Findings of SOCCR2, p. 24.

Report

International Polar Year: Science at the Ends of the Earth

In response to unprecedented changes in the fragile polar regions of our planet, the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 will encompass many scientific studies designed to improve our understanding of polar change and its effects on Earth's ecosystems and people. For 2 years, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers will don arctic gear and join scientists from more than 60 countries to conduct coordinated research and analysis in the Arctic and Antarctic. Polar regions play a critical role in the global climate system-and changing conditions in these often remote areas greatly affect biological, atmospheric, and human systems around the world. In the 50 years since the last IPY, scientists have seen that Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers worldwide are thinning and retreating, permafrost is thawing, and Arctic sea-ice cover is decreasing. The loss of sea-ice cover adversely affects marine mammal populations and leaves coastal Alaskan villages vulnerable to winter storm erosion. Thawing permafrost threatens the integrity of roads, buildings, and other vulnerable infrastructure and affects the mobility of local populations.

Fact Sheet