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At least 325 records · Page 18Linked to original sources

Petrology and chemistry of Permian coals from the Paraná Basin: 1. Santa Terezinha, Leão-Butiá and Candiota Coalfields, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The current paper presents results on petrological and geochemical coal seam characterization in Permian coal-bearing strata from the Paraná Basin, southern Brazil. Sequence stratigraphic analysis shows that peat accumulation in Permian time was closely linked to transgressive/regressive cycles, with peat accumulation occurring in a predominantly back barrier/lagoonal setting. Coal petrographic analysis indicates subbituminous coals at Candiota and Leão-Butiá and high volatile bituminous coals at Santa Terezinha, where locally the coal seams are thermally altered by volcanic intrusions. Petrographic composition is highly variable, with seams at Candiota and Santa Terezinha frequently enriched in inertinite. Chemical analyses indicate that all coals are mineral matter-rich (mean 49.09 wt.%), with SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 dominating as determined by ICP-AES. Quartz is also the predominant mineral detected by X-ray diffraction, where it is associated with feldspar, kaolinite and hematite and iron-rich carbonates. The results from Scanning Electron Microscopy are broadly consistent with the bulk chemical and mineralogical analysis. Quartz and clays are common in all samples analyzed. Other minerals observed were, amongst others, carbonates (calcite, siderite, ankerite), pyrite, monazite, kaolinite, barite, sphalerite, rutile and quartz of volcanic origin. The distribution of trace elements is well within the range typical for coal basins of other areas despite the fact that the Paraná Basin coals are very high in ash yields. The average concentrations for elements of environmental concern (As, B, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Li, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Tl, U, V, Zn) are similar to or less than the mean values for U.S. coal. However, considered on an equal energy basis, Paraná Basin coals will produce in combustion 5 to 10 times the amount of most elements compared to an equal weight US coal. Concentrations of major and trace elements, such as Fe, B and S, appear to be controlled by depositional setting, with increasing values in coal seams overlain by brackish/marine strata. Hierarchical cluster analysis identified three groups of major minerals and seven groups of trace elements based on similarity levels. On a regional scale, the coalfields can be separated by the differences in rank (Candiota and Leão-Butiá versus Santa Terezinha) and by applying discriminant analysis based on 4 trace elements (Li, As, Sr, Sb). Highest Rb and Sr values occur at Candiota and are linked to syngenetic volcanism of the area, whereas high Y and Sr values at Santa Terezinha can be related to the frequent diabase intrusions in that area.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links

Parasitism is the most common consumer strategy among organisms, yet only recently has there been a call for the inclusion of infectious disease agents in food webs. The value of this effort hinges on whether parasites affect food-web properties. Increasing evidence suggests that parasites have the potential to uniquely alter food-web topology in terms of chain length, connectance and robustness. In addition, parasites might affect food-web stability, interaction strength and energy flow. Food-web structure also affects infectious disease dynamics because parasites depend on the ecological networks in which they live. Empirically, incorporating parasites into food webs is straightforward. We may start with existing food webs and add parasites as nodes, or we may try to build food webs around systems for which we already have a good understanding of infectious processes. In the future, perhaps researchers will add parasites while they construct food webs. Less clear is how food-web theory can accommodate parasites. This is a deep and central problem in theoretical biology and applied mathematics. For instance, is representing parasites with complex life cycles as a single node equivalent to representing other species with ontogenetic niche shifts as a single node? Can parasitism fit into fundamental frameworks such as the niche model? Can we integrate infectious disease models into the emerging field of dynamic food-web modelling? Future progress will benefit from interdisciplinary collaborations between ecologists and infectious disease biologists.

Ecology Letters

Dissimilatory Fe(III) reduction by the marine microorganism Desulfuromonas acetoxidans

The ability of the marine microorganism Desulfuromonas acetoxidans to reduce Fe(III) was investigated because of its close phylogenetic relationship with the freshwater dissimilatory Fe(III) reducer Geobacter metallireducens. Washed cell suspensions of the type strain of D. acetoxidans reduced soluble Fe(III)-citrate and Fe(III) complexed with nitriloacetic acid. The c -type cytochrome(s) of D. acetoxidans was oxidized by Fe(III)-citrate and Mn(IV)-oxalate, as well as by two electron acceptors known to support growth, colloidal sulfur and malate. D. acetoxidans grew in defined anoxic, bicarbonate-buffered medium with acetate as the sole electron donor and poorly crystalline Fe(III) or Mn(IV) as the sole electron acceptor. Magnetite (Fe 3 O 4 ) and siderite (FeCO 3 ) were the major end products of Fe(III) reduction, whereas rhodochrosite (MnCO 3 ) was the end product of Mn(IV) reduction. Ethanol, propanol, pyruvate, and butanol also served as electron donors for Fe(III) reduction. In contrast to D. acetoxidans, G. metallireducens could only grow in freshwater medium and it did not conserve energy to support growth from colloidal S 0 reduction. D. acetoxidans is the first marine microorganism shown to conserve energy to support growth by coupling the complete oxidation of organic compounds to the reduction of Fe(III) or Mn(IV). Thus, D. acetoxidans provides a model enzymatic mechanism for Fe(III) or Mn(IV) oxidation of organic compounds in marine and estuarine sediments. These findings demonstrate that 16S rRNA phylogenetic analyses can suggest previously unrecognized metabolic capabilities of microorganisms.

Applied and Environmental Microbiology

The Wetland and Aquatic Research Center strategic science plan

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center (WARC) has two primary locations (Gainesville, Florida, and Lafayette, Louisiana) and field stations throughout the southeastern United States and Caribbean. WARC’s roots are in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and National Park Service research units that were brought into the USGS as the Biological Research Division in 1996. Founded in 2015, WARC was created from the merger of two long-standing USGS biology science Centers—the Southeast Ecological Science Center and the National Wetlands Research Center—to bring together expertise in biology, ecology, landscape science, geospatial applications, and decision support in order to address issues nationally and internationally. WARC scientists apply their expertise to a variety of wetland and aquatic research and monitoring issues that require coordinated, integrated efforts to better understand natural environments. By increasing basic understanding of the biology of important species and broader ecological and physiological processes, this research provides information to policymakers and aids managers in their stewardship of natural resources and in regulatory functions. This strategic science plan (SSP) was developed to guide WARC research during the next 5–10 years in support of Department of the Interior (DOI) partnering bureaus such as the USFWS, the National Park Service, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, as well as other Federal, State, and local natural resource management agencies. The SSP demonstrates the alignment of the WARC goals with the USGS mission areas, associated programs, and other DOI initiatives. The SSP is necessary for workforce planning and, as such, will be used as a guide for future needs for personnel. The SSP also will be instrumental in developing internal funding priorities and in promoting WARC’s capabilities to both external cooperators and other groups within the USGS.

Open-File Report

Application of reflectance micro-Fourier Transform infrared analysis to the study of coal macerals: An example from the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous coals of the Mist Mountain Formation, British Columbia, Canada

The applicability of the reflectance micro-Fourier Transform infra-red spectroscopy (FTIR) technique for analyzing the distribution of functional groups in coal macerals is discussed. High quality of spectra, comparable to those obtained using other FTIR techniques (KBr pellet and transmission micro-FTIR), indicate this technique can be applied to characterizing functional groups under most conditions. The ease of sample preparation, the potential to analyze large intact samples, and ability to characterize organic matter in areas as small as 20 ??m are the main advantages of reflectance micro-FTIR. The quantitative aspects of reflectance micro-FTIR require further study. The examples from the coal seams of the Mist Mountain Formation, British Columbia show that at high volatile bituminous rank, reflectance micro-FTIR provides valuable information on the character of aliphatic chains of vitrinite and liptinite macerals. Because the character of aliphatic chains influences bond disassociation energies, such information is useful from a hydrocarbon generation viewpoint. In medium volatile bituminous coal liptinite macerals are usually not detectable but this technique can be used to study the degree of oxidation and reactivity of vitrinite and semifusinite.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Estimating Water Fluxes Across the Sediment-Water Interface in the Lower Merced River, California

The lower Merced River Basin was chosen by the U.S. Geological Survey?s (USGS) National Water Quality Assessment Program (NAWQA) to be included in a national study on how hydrological processes and agricultural practices interact to affect the transport and fate of agricultural chemicals. As part of this effort, surface-water?ground-water (sw?gw) interactions were studied in an instrumented 100-m reach on the lower Merced River. This study focused on estimating vertical rates of exchange across the sediment?water interface by direct measurement using seepage meters and by using temperature as a tracer coupled with numerical modeling. Temperature loggers and pressure transducers were placed in monitoring wells within the streambed and in the river to continuously monitor temperature and hydraulic head every 15 minutes from March 2004 to October 2005. One-dimensional modeling of heat and water flow was used to interpret the temperature and head observations and deduce the sw?gw fluxes using the USGS numerical model, VS2DH, which simulates variably saturated water flow and solves the energy transport equation. Results of the modeling effort indicate that the Merced River at the study reach is generally a slightly gaining stream with small head differences (cm) between the surface water and ground water, with flow reversals occurring during high streamflow events. The average vertical flux across the sediment?water interface was 0.4?2.2 cm/day, and the range of hydraulic conductivities was 1?10 m/day. Seepage meters generally failed to provide accurate data in this high-energy system because of slow seepage rates and a moving streambed resulting in scour or burial of the seepage meters. Estimates of streambed hydraulic conductivity were also made using grain-size analysis and slug tests. Estimated hydraulic conductivity for the upstream transect determined using slug tests ranged from 40 to 250 m/day, whereas the downstream transect ranged from 10 to 100 m/day. The range in variability was a result of position along each transect. A relative percent difference was used to describe the variability in estimates of hydraulic conductivity by grain-size analysis and slug test. Variability in applied methods at the upstream transect ranged from 0 to 9 percent, whereas the downstream transect showed greater variability, with a range of 80 to 133 percent.

Scientific Investigations Report

Testing the efficacy of industrial mitigation measures for caribou in the Arctic

1. Mitigation measures are commonly employed to reduce the negative effects of industrial development on wildlife but are not often evaluated for their efficacy. For example, oil fields in the Arctic typically incorporate design features intended to increase permeability for migratory, barren-ground caribou ( Rangifer tarandus) , even though there is limited empirical evidence of the effectiveness of some of these features. 2. Given expected increases in energy development in the North American Arctic, we examined whether two mitigation measures commonly used for migratory caribou, elevating pipelines and separating roads and pipelines, were effective at increasing the probability caribou would cross infrastructure. 3. We conducted our investigation on adult female caribou in the Central Arctic Herd of Alaska during summer, analyzing movement data from telemetry collars (2015-2020) in conjunction with spatial data on oil field infrastructure. To evaluate whether caribou would cross infrastructure as a function of the mitigation measures, we employed a generalized additive modeling framework capable of detecting non-linear and threshold responses. 4. We found that caribou were more likely to cross a pipeline when the nearest pipeline was elevated (≥1.9-m), a result that supports current mitigation recommendations. We also found that caribou were more likely to cross both a road and pipeline when they were directly adjacent to one another, as opposed to being spatially separated, a result that contradicts recommended mitigation strategies. 5. Synthesis and applications . As new energy projects are designed and implemented in environments around the globe, it is important to ensure that mitigation efforts for wildlife are scientifically validated for their efficacy. In the North American Arctic, such efforts will be critical for minimizing the impacts of expanding industrial development on migratory caribou and on the human communities that rely on them for subsistence.

Alaska

Behavioral responses of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) and white sucker (Catostomus commersonii) to turbulent flow during fishway passage attempts

An understanding of how undesirable and desirable fish species respond behaviorally to turbulent flow in fishways would guide development of selective fish passage techniques. We applied high-resolution computational fluid dynamics modeling and competing risks analysis towards the development of predictive selective passage models. Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ; an invasive fish in the Great Lakes Basin, North America) upstream passage probability declined from 0.73 to 0.03 as flow conditions became increasingly turbulent, while declines in white sucker ( Catostomus commersonii , a native fish in the region) upstream passage probability were less substantial (0.53 to 0.44). Deploying a sea lamprey trap in the fishway did not effectively reduce sea lamprey upstream passage probability, though capture rate increased during trials with cooler water temperature and low total kinetic energy. Bifurcated fishways that maintain low turbulent flow in the entrapment route and high turbulent flow in the upstream passage route could increase the effectiveness of trapping sea lamprey in fishways as a means to advance selective passage goals.

Wisconsin

Evaluation of polymer-based dust palliatives in soil and stormwater runoff in an arid environment

Dust palliatives are used to reduce fugitive dust in areas susceptible to erosion by wind and rain. In 2015, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) temporarily approved the use of polymer-based dust palliatives during the construction and operation of a solar energy facility and, in 2019, on a mining access road in Clark County, Nevada. The areas treated with palliative are habitat to the desert tortoise. The desert tortoise consumes water opportunistically from puddles, saturated soils, or by the collection of precipitation on their carapaces. Since little is known about the toxicity of polymeric substances to the desert tortoise, the BLM is concerned with the exposure of the desert tortoise to palliative in stormwater runoff. The BLM collaborated with the US Geological Survey (USGS) to evaluate the transport of butyl acrylate vinyl acetate (BA-VA), the copolymer ingredient in the dust palliatives applied in the study, away from areas of application. BA-VA concentrations were measured in soils treated with palliative up to 90 days post-treatment, after which the copolymer became undetectable (< 0.55 mg/g). BA-VA concentrations in all stormwater samples within and outside treated areas were consistently below detection (< 0.20 mg/mL). Although stormwater and treated soils eroded from the solar facility application area were found to have BA-VA concentrations below detection (< 0.55 mg/g), it is likely that some BA-VA (parent or degradation product) was transported with suspended material. It is also likely that the amount of BA-VA transported away from areas of application was a small fraction of that applied.

Nevada

Influence of manatees' diving on their risk of collision with watercraft

Watercraft pose a threat to endangered Florida manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ). Mortality from watercraft collisions has adversely impacted the manatee population&rsquo;s growth rate, therefore reducing this threat is an important management goal. To assess factors that contribute to the risk of watercraft strikes to manatees, we studied the diving behavior of nine manatees carrying GPS tags and time&ndash;depth recorders in Tampa Bay, Florida, during winters 2002&ndash;2006. We applied a Bayesian formulation of generalized linear mixed models to depth data to model the probability ( P t ) that manatees would be no deeper than 1.25 m from the water&rsquo;s surface as a function of behavioral and habitat covariates. Manatees above this threshold were considered to be within striking depth of a watercraft. Seventy-eight percent of depth records (individual range 62&ndash;86%) were within striking depth (mean = 1.09 m, max = 16.20 m), illustrating how vulnerable manatees are to strikes. In some circumstances manatees made consecutive dives to the bottom while traveling, even in areas >14 m, possibly to conserve energy. This is the first documentation of potential cost-efficient diving behavior in manatees. Manatees were at higher risk of being within striking depth in shallow water (<0.91 m), over seagrass, at night, and while stationary or moving slowly; they were less likely to be within striking depth when &le;50 m from a charted waterway. In shallow water the probability of a manatee being within striking depth was 0.96 (CI = 0.93&ndash;0.98) and decreased as water depth increased. The probability was greater over seagrass ( P t = 0.96, CI = 0.93&ndash;0.98) than over other substrates ( P t = 0.73, CI = 0.58&ndash;0.84). Quantitative approaches to assessing risk can improve the effectiveness of manatee conservation measures by helping identify areas for protection.

Florida

Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD), user’s manual, version 1

The Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) uses the framework of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System to simulate fluxes of water and solutes through watersheds. WEBMOD divides watersheds into model response units (MRU) where fluxes and reactions are simulated for the following eight hillslope reservoir types: canopy; snowpack; ponding on impervious surfaces; O-horizon; two reservoirs in the unsaturated zone, which represent preferential flow and matrix flow; and two reservoirs in the saturated zone, which also represent preferential flow and matrix flow. The reservoir representing ponding on impervious surfaces, currently not functional (2016), will be implemented once the model is applied to urban areas. MRUs discharge to one or more stream reservoirs that flow to the outlet of the watershed. Hydrologic fluxes in the watershed are simulated by modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System; the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model; and a topography-driven hydrologic model (TOPMODEL). Modifications to the standard TOPMODEL include the addition of heterogeneous vertical infiltration rates; irrigation; lateral and vertical preferential flows through the unsaturated zone; pipe flow draining the saturated zone; gains and losses to regional aquifer systems; and the option to simulate baseflow discharge by using an exponential, parabolic, or linear decrease in transmissivity. PHREEQC, an aqueous geochemical model, is incorporated to simulate chemical reactions as waters evaporate, mix, and react within the various reservoirs of the model. The reactions that can be specified for a reservoir include equilibrium reactions among water; minerals; surfaces; exchangers; and kinetic reactions such as kinetic mineral dissolution or precipitation, biologically mediated reactions, and radioactive decay. WEBMOD also simulates variations in the concentrations of the stable isotopes deuterium and oxygen-18 as a result of varying inputs, mixing, and evaporation. This manual describes the WEBMOD input and output files, along with the algorithms and procedures used to simulate the hydrology and water quality in a watershed. Examples are presented that demonstrate hydrologic processes, weathering reactions, and isotopic evolution in an alpine watershed and the effect of irrigation on water flows and salinity in an intensively farmed agricultural area.

Techniques and Methods

Evaluation of air-soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region

A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyze simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large across-model differences as expressed by simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures, (&Delta; T ), of 3 to 14 K, in the gradients between soil and air temperatures (0.13 to 0.96&deg;C/&deg;C), and in the relationship between &Delta; T and snow depth. The observed relationship between &Delta; T and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, and hence guide improvements to the model&rsquo;s conceptual structure and process parameterizations. Models with better performance apply multi-layer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (12&ndash;16 million km 2 ). However, there is not a simple relationship between the quality of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, likely because several other factors such as differences in the treatment of soil organic matter, soil hydrology, surface energy calculations, and vegetation also provide important controls on simulated permafrost distribution.

The Cryosphere

Spring migration of waterfowl in the Northern Hemisphere: a management and conservation perspective

Spring migration is a key part of the annual cycle for waterfowl populations in the northern hemisphere, due to its temporal proximity to the breeding season and because resources may be limited at one or more staging sites. Research based on field observations during spring lags behind other periods of the year, despite the potential for fitness consequences through diminished survival or cross-seasonal effects of conditions experienced during migration. Consequently, conservation strategies for waterfowl on spring migration are often only refined versions of practices used during autumn and winter. Here we discuss the current state of knowledge of habitat requirements for waterfowl at their spring migratory sites and the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that lead to variability in those requirements. The provision of plant foods has become the main conservation strategy during spring because of the birds&rsquo; energy requirements at this time, not only to fuel migration but to facilitate early clutch formation on arrival at the breeding grounds. Although energy sources are important to migrants, there is little evidence on the extent to which the availability of carbohydrate-based food is limiting for many migratory waterfowl populations. Such limitation is relatively unlikely among populations that exploit agricultural grain during migration (e.g. arctic-nesting geese), suggesting that conservation strategies for these populations may be misplaced. In general, however, we found few cases in which an ecological understanding of spring-migrating waterfowl was sufficient to indicate true resource limitation during migration, and still fewer cases where conservation efforts ameliorated these limitations. We propose a framework that aims to address knowledge gaps and apply empirical research results to conservation strategies based on documented limitations and associated fitness impacts on migrating waterfowl. Such a strategy would improve allocation of scarce conservation resources during spring migration and greatly improve ecological understanding of migratory waterfowl and their habitats in the northern hemisphere.

Wildfowl

Using global remote camera data of a solitary species complex to evaluate the drivers of group formation

The social system of animals involves a complex interplay between physiology, natural history, and the environment. Long relied upon discrete categorizations of “social” and “solitary” inhibit our capacity to understand species and their interactions with the world around them. Here, we use a globally distributed camera trapping dataset to test the drivers of aggregating into groups in a species complex (martens and relatives, family Mustelidae , Order Carnivora ) assumed to be obligately solitary. We use a simple quantification, the probability of being detected in a group, that was applied across our globally derived camera trap dataset. Using a series of binomial generalized mixed-effects models applied to a dataset of 16,483 independent detections across 17 countries on four continents we test explicit hypotheses about potential drivers of group formation. We observe a wide range of probabilities of being detected in groups within the solitary model system, with the probability of aggregating in groups varying by more than an order of magnitude. We demonstrate that a species’ context-dependent proclivity toward aggregating in groups is underpinned by a range of resource-related factors, primarily the distribution of resources, with increasing patchiness of resources facilitating group formation, as well as interactions between environmental conditions (resource constancy/winter severity) and physiology (energy storage capabilities). The wide variation in propensities to aggregate with conspecifics observed here highlights how continued failure to recognize complexities in the social behaviors of apparently solitary species limits our understanding not only of the individual species but also the causes and consequences of group formation.

PNAS

Seismic precursory patterns before a cliff collapse and critical point phenomena

We analyse the statistical pattern of seismicity before a 1-2 103 m3 chalk cliff collapse on the Normandie ocean shore, Western France. We show that a power law acceleration of seismicity rate and energy in both 40 Hz-1.5 kHz and 2 Hz-10kHz frequency range, is defined on 3 orders of magnitude, within 2 hours from the collapse time. Simultaneously, the average size of the seismic events increases toward the time to failure. These in situ results are derived from the only station located within one rupture length distance from the rock fall rupture plane. They mimic the "critical point" like behavior recovered from physical and numerical experiments before brittle failures and tertiary creep failures. Our analysis of this first seismic monitoring data of a cliff collapse suggests that the thermodynamic phase transition models for failure may apply for cliff collapse. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters

Mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on reef‐fringed coastlines

Wave‐driven water level variability (and runup at the shoreline) is a significant cause of coastal flooding induced by storms. Wave runup is challenging to predict, particularly along tropical coral reef‐fringed coastlines due to the steep bathymetric profiles and large bottom roughness generated by reef organisms, which can violate assumptions in conventional models applied to open sandy coastlines. To investigate the mechanisms of wave‐driven water level variability on a reef‐fringed coastline, we performed a set of laboratory flume experiments on an along‐shore uniform bathymetric profile with and without bottom roughness. Wave setup and waves at frequencies lower than the incident sea‐swell forcing (infragravity waves) were found to be the dominant components of runup. These infragravity waves were positively correlated with offshore wave groups, signifying they were generated in the surf zone by the oscillation of the breakpoint. On the reef flat and at the shoreline, the low‐frequency waves formed a standing wave pattern with energy concentrated at the natural frequencies of the reef flat, indicating resonant amplification. Roughness elements used in the flume to mimic large reef bottom roughness reduced low frequency motions on the reef flat and reduced wave run up by 30% on average, compared to the runs over a smooth bed. These results provide insight into sea‐swell and infragravity wave transformation and wave setup dynamics on steep‐sloped coastlines, and the effect that future losses of reef bottom roughness may have on coastal flooding along reef‐fringed coasts.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans

Modeling thermal dynamics of active layer soils and near-surface permafrost using a fully coupled water and heat transport model

Thawing and freezing processes are key components in permafrost dynamics, and these processes play an important role in regulating the hydrological and carbon cycles in the northern high latitudes. In the present study, we apply a well-developed soil thermal model that fully couples heat and water transport, to simulate the thawing and freezing processes at daily time steps across multiple sites that vary with vegetation cover, disturbance history, and climate. The model performance was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured soil temperatures at different depths. We use the model to explore the influence of climate, fire disturbance, and topography (north- and south-facing slopes) on soil thermal dynamics. Modeled soil temperatures agree well with measured values for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. Combustion of organic-soil horizons during wildfire alters the surface energy balance and increases the downward heat flux through the soil profile, resulting in the warming and thawing of near-surface permafrost. A projection of 21st century permafrost dynamics indicates that as the climate warms, active layer thickness will likely increase to more than 3 meters in the boreal forest site and deeper than one meter in the tundra site. Results from this coupled heat-water modeling approach represent faster thaw rates than previously simulated in other studies. We conclude that the discussed soil thermal model is able to well simulate the permafrost dynamics and could be used as a tool to analyze the influence of climate change and wildfire disturbance on permafrost thawing.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres

Natural or Induced: Identifying Natural and Induced Swarms from Pre-production and Co-production Microseismic Catalogs at the Coso Geothermal Field

Increased levels of seismicity coinciding with injection of reservoir fluids have prompted interest in methods to distinguish induced from natural seismicity. Discrimination between induced and natural seismicity is especially difficult in areas that have high levels of natural seismicity, such as the geothermal fields at the Salton Sea and Coso, both in California. Both areas show swarm-like sequences that could be related to natural, deep fluid migration as part of the natural hydrothermal system. Therefore, swarms often have spatio-temporal patterns that resemble fluid-induced seismicity, and might possibly share other characteristics. The Coso Geothermal Field and its surroundings is one of the most seismically active areas in California with a large proportion of its activity occurring as seismic swarms. Here we analyze clustered seismicity in and surrounding the currently produced reservoir comparatively for pre-production and co-production periods. We perform a cluster analysis, based on the inter-event distance in a space-time-energy domain to identify notable earthquake sequences. For each event j, the closest previous event i is identified and their relationship categorized. If this nearest neighbor&rsquo;s distance is below a threshold based on the local minimum of the bimodal distribution of nearest neighbor distances, then the event j is included in the cluster as a child to this parent event i. If it is above the threshold, event j begins a new cluster. This process identifies subsets of events whose nearest neighbor distances and relative timing qualify as a cluster as well as a characterizing the parent-child relationships among events in the cluster. We apply this method to three different catalogs: (1) a two-year microseismic survey of the Coso geothermal area that was acquired before exploration drilling in the area began; (2) the HYS_catalog_2013 that contains 52,000 double-difference relocated events and covers the years 1981 to 2013; and (3) a catalog of 57,000 events with absolute locations from the local network recorded between 2002 and 2007. Using this method we identify 10 clusters of more than 20 events each in the pre-production survey and more than 200 distinct seismicity clusters that each contain at least 20 and up to more than 1000 earthquakes in the more extensive catalogs. The cluster identification method used yields a hierarchy of links between multiple generations of parent and offspring events. We analyze different topological parameters of this hierarchy to better characterize and thus differentiate natural swarms from induced clustered seismicity and also to identify aftershock sequences of notable mainshocks. We find that the branching characteristic given by the average number of child events per parent event is significantly different for clusters below than for clusters around the produced field.

Conference Paper