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Documentation of a spatial data-base management system for monitoring pesticide application in Washington

The Pesticide-Application Data-Base Management System was created as a demonstration project and was tested with data submitted to the Washington State Department of Agriculture by pesticide applicators from a small geographic area. These data were entered into the Department's relational data-base system and uploaded into the system's ARC/INFO files. Locations for pesticide applica- tions are assigned within the Public Land Survey System grids, and ARC/INFO programs in the Pesticide-Application Data-Base Management System can subdivide each survey section into sixteen idealized quarter-quarter sections for display map grids. The system provides data retrieval and geographic information system plotting capabilities from a menu of seven basic retrieval options. Additionally, ARC/INFO coverages can be created from the retrieved data when required for particular applications. The Pesticide-Application Data-Base Management System, or the general principles used in the system, could be adapted to other applica- tions or to other states.

Open-File Report

Trends in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids in public supply wells of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins, San Bernardino County, California: Influence of legacy land use

Concentrations and temporal changes in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin were evaluated to identify trends and factors that may be affecting trends. One hundred, thirty-one public-supply wells were selected for analysis based on the availability of data spanning at least 11 years between the late 1980s and the 2000s. Forty-one of the 131 wells (31%) had a significant (p < 0.10) increase in nitrate and 14 wells (11%) had a significant decrease in nitrate. For TDS, 46 wells (35%) had a significant increase and 8 wells (6%) had a significant decrease. Slopes for the observed significant trends ranged from − 0.44 to 0.91 mg/L/yr for nitrate (as N) and − 8 to 13 mg/L/yr for TDS. Increasing nitrate trends were associated with greater well depth, higher percentage of agricultural land use, and being closer to the distal end of the flow system. Decreasing nitrate trends were associated with the occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); VOC occurrence decreases with increasing depth. The relations of nitrate trends to depth, lateral position, and VOCs imply that increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from historical agricultural land use and that more recent urban land use is generally associated with lower nitrate concentrations and greater VOC occurrence. Increasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater current nitrate concentrations and relatively greater amounts of urban land. Decreasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater amounts of natural land use. Trends in TDS concentrations were not related to depth, lateral position, or VOC occurrence, reflecting more complex factors affecting TDS than nitrate in the study area.

California

Development of a regionally consistent geospatial dataset of agricultural lands in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 2007-10

Irrigation in arid environments can alter the natural rate at which salts are dissolved and transported to streams. Irrigated agricultural lands are the major anthropogenic source of dissolved solids in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Understanding the location, spatial distribution, and irrigation status of agricultural lands and the method used to deliver water to agricultural lands are important to help improve the understanding of agriculturally derived dissolved-solids loading to surface water in the UCRB. Irrigation status is the presence or absence of irrigation on an agricultural field during the selected growing season or seasons. Irrigation method is the system used to irrigate a field. Irrigation method can broadly be grouped into sprinkler or flood methods, although other techniques such as drip irrigation are used in the UCRB. Flood irrigation generally causes greater dissolved-solids loading to streams than sprinkler irrigation. Agricultural lands in the UCRB mapped by state agencies at varying spatial and temporal resolutions were assembled and edited to represent conditions in the UCRB between 2007 and 2010. Edits were based on examination of 1-meter resolution aerial imagery collected between 2009 and 2011. Remote sensing classification techniques were used to classify irrigation status for the June to September growing seasons between 2007 and 2010. The final dataset contains polygons representing approximately 1,759,900 acres of agricultural lands in the UCRB. Approximately 66 percent of the mapped agricultural lands were likely irrigated during the study period.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Design of a naturalized flow regime—An example from the Lower Missouri River, USA

group of river managers, stakeholders, and scientists met during summer 2005 to design a more naturalized flow regime for the Lower Missouri River (LMOR). The objective was to comply with requirements under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to support reproduction and survival of threatened and endangered species, with emphasis on the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ), while minimizing negative effects to existing social and economic benefits of prevailing river management. Specific hydrograph requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction are unknown, hence much of the design process was based on features of the natural flow regime. Environmental flow components (EFCs) extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes. The design process incorporated a primary stage in which conceptual hydrographs were developed and assessed for their general ecological and social-economic performance. The second stage accounted for hydroclimatic variation by coding the conceptual hydrographs into reservoir release rules, adding constraints for downstream flooding and low-storage precludes, and running the rules through 100 years of hydroclimatic simulation. The output flow regimes were then evaluated for presumed ecological benefits based on how closely they resembled EFCs in the reference natural flow regime. Flow regimes also were assessed for social-economic cost indicators, including days of flooding of low-lying agricultural land, days over flood stage, and storage levels in system reservoirs. Our experience with flow-regime design on the LMOR underscored the lack of confidence the stakeholders place in the value of the natural flow regime as a measure of ecosystem benefit in the absence of fundamental scientific documentation. Stakeholders desired proof of ecological benefits commensurate with the certainty of economic losses. We also gained insight into the processes of integrating science into a collaborative management exercise. Although the 2005 collaborative effort failed to reach a consensus among stakeholders on a naturalized flow regime, the process was successful in pilot-testing a design approach; it helped focus scienctific efforts on key knowledge gaps; and it demonstrated the potential for collaborations among scientists, stakeholders, and managers in river management decision making.

Lower Missouri River

Selenium and other elements in freshwater fishes from the irrigated San Joaquin valley, California

Arsenic (As), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), and selenium (Se) were measured in composite whole-body samples of five fishes — bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ), common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ), mosquitofish ( Gambusia affinis ), largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ), and Sacramento blackfish ( Orthodon microlepidotus ) — from the San Joaquin River system to determine if concentrations were elevated from exposure to agricultural subsurface (tile) drainage. Except for Cr, the concentrations of these elements in fishes from one or more sites were elevated; however, only Se approached concentrations that may adversely affect survival, growth, or reproduction in warm water fishes. Moreover, only Se among the four measured elements exhibited a geographic (spatial) pattern that coincided with known inflows of tile drainage to the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. Historical data from the Grassland Water District (Grasslands; a region exposed to concentrated tile drainage) suggested that concentrations of Se in fishes were at maximum during or shortly after 1984 and have been slightly lower since then. The recent decline of Se concentrations in fishes from the Grasslands could be temporary if additional acreages of irrigated lands in this portion of the San Joaquin Valley must be tile-drained to protect agricultural crops from rising groundwater tables

California

Hydrologic and water-quality data, Honey Creek State Natural Area, Comal County, Texas, August 2001-September 2003

The U.S. Geological Survey collected rainfall, streamflow, evapotranspiration, and rainfall and stormflow water-quality data from seven sites in two adjacent watersheds in the Honey Creek State Natural Area, Comal County, Texas, during August 2001–September 2003, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the San Antonio Water System. Data collected during this period represent baseline hydrologic and water-quality conditions before proposed removal of ashe juniper ( Juniperus ashei ) from one of the two watersheds. Juniper removal is intended as a best-management practice to increase water quantity (aquifer recharge and streamflow) and to protect water quality. Continuous (5-minute interval) rainfall data are collected at four sites; continuous (5-minute interval) streamflow data are collected at three sites. Fifteen-minute averages of meteorological and solar-energy-related data recorded at two sites are used to compute moving 30-minute evapotranspiration values on the basis of the energy-balance Bowen ratio method. Periodic rainfall water-quality data are collected at one site and stormflow water-quality data at three sites. Daily rainfall, streamflow, and evapotranspiration totals are presented in tables; detailed data are listed in an appendix. Results of analyses of the periodic rainfall and stormflow water-quality samples collected during runoff events are summarized in the appendix; not all data types were collected at all sites nor were all data types collected during the entire 26-month period.

Texas

Digital data used to relate nutrient input to water quality in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Digital data sets compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey were used as input for a collection of Spatially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) attributes for the Chesapeake Bay region including parts of Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. These regressions use a nonlinear statistical approach to relate nutrient sources and land-surface characteristics to nutrient loads of streams throughout the Chesapeake Bay watershed. A digital segmented-watershed network serves as the primary framework for spatially referencing nutrient-source and land-surface characteristic data within a geographic information system. Flow direction and flow accumulation generated from a 30-meter cell-size Digital Elevation Model and attributes from 1:500,000-scale stream data were used to generate stream and watershed networks. Spatial data sets representing nutrient inputs of total nitrogen and total phosphorus from the early 1990's were created and compiled from numerous sources. Data include atmospheric deposition, septic systems, point-source locations, land use, land cover, and agricultural sources such as commercial fertilizer and manure. Some land-surface characteristic data sets representing factors that affect the transport of nutrients also were compiled. Data sets include land use, land cover, average-annual precipitation and temperature, slope, hydrogeomorphic regions, and soil permeability. Nutrient-input and land-surface characteristic data sets merged with the segmented-watershed network provide the spatial detail by watershed segment required by SPARROW. Stream-nutrient load estimates for 132 sampling sites representing the early 1990's (103 for total nitrogen and 121 for total phosphorus) serve as the dependent variables for the regressions. These estimates were used to calibrate models of total nitrogen and total phosphorus depicting 1992 land-surface conditions. Examples of model predictions consist of stream-nutrient load and source percentages contributed locally to each stream reach, as well as percentages of the load that reach Chesapeake Bay.

Open-File Report

Potentiometric surface, 2012, and water-level differences, 2005-12, of the Sparta Aquifer in north-central Louisiana

The Sparta aquifer is used in 15 parishes in north-central Louisiana, primarily for public supply and industrial purposes. Of those parishes, eight (Bienville, Claiborne, Jackson, Lincoln, Ouachita, Union, Webster, and Winn) rely on the Sparta aquifer as their principal source of groundwater. In 2010, withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer in Louisiana totaled 63.11 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), a reduction of more than 11 percent from 1995, when the highest rate of withdrawals (71.32 Mgal/d) from the Sparta aquifer were documented. The Sparta aquifer provides water for a variety of purposes which include public supply (34.61 Mgal/d), industrial (25.60 Mgal/d), rural domestic (1.50 Mgal/d), and various agricultural (1.40 Mgal/d). Of the 13 major aquifers or aquifer systems in Louisiana, the Sparta aquifer is currently (2012) the sixth most heavily pumped. The Sparta aquifer is the second most heavily pumped aquifer in Arkansas, which borders Louisiana to the north. In 2005, 170 Mgal/d were withdrawn from the Sparta aquifer in eastern and southern Arkansas; of that total, about 15.55 Mgal/d were withdrawn from the aquifer in Union County, which borders Claiborne and Union Parishes to the north. By 1997, a large cone of depression (a cone-shaped depression in the potentiometric surface caused by and centered on a pumping well or wells) in the Sparta aquifer centered over Union County had merged with the cone of depression at West Monroe. In 2004, the rate of withdrawal from the Sparta aquifer in Union County began to decline and water levels in the aquifer began to rise in nearby areas of Arkansas and Louisiana.

Louisiana

Analysis of data on nutrients and organic compounds in ground water in the upper Snake River basin, Idaho and western Wyoming, 1980-91

Nutrient and organic compound data from the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency STORET data bases provided information for development of a preliminary conceptual model of spatial and temporal ground-water quality in the upper Snake River Basin. Nitrite plus nitrate (as nitrogen; hereafter referred to as nitrate) concentrations exceeded the Federal drinking-water regulation of 10 milligrams per liter in three areas in Idaho" the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, the area north of Pocatello (Fort Hall area), and the area surrounding Burley. Water from many wells in the Twin Falls area also contained elevated (greater than two milligrams per liter) nitrate concentrations. Water from domestic wells contained the highest median nitrate concentrations; water from industrial and public supply wells contained the lowest. Nitrate concentrations decreased with increasing well depth, increasing depth to water (unsaturated thickness), and increasing depth below water table (saturated thickness). Kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations decreased with increasing well depth and depth below water table. The relation between kjeldahl nitrogen concentrations and depth to water was poor. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in water from wells were correlated among three hydrogeomorphic regions in the upper Snake River Basin, Concentrations of nitrate were statistically higher in the eastern Snake River Plain and local aquifers than in the tributary valleys. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among the three hydrogeomorphic regions. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations were correlated with land-use classifications developed using the Geographic Information Retrieval and Analysis System. Concentrations of nitrate were statistically higher in area of agricultural land than in areas of rangeland. There was no statistical difference in concentrations between rangeland and urban land and between urban land and agricultural land. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among any of the land-use classifications. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations also were correlated with land-use classifications developed by the Idaho Department of Water Resources for the Idaho part of the upper Snake River Basin. Nitrate concentrations were statistically higher in areas of irrigated agriculture than in areas of dryland agriculture and rangeland. There was no statistical difference in total phosphorus concentrations among any of the Idaho Department of Water Resources land-use classifications. Data were sufficient to assess long-term trends of nitrate concentrations in water from only eight wells: four wells north of Burley and four wells northwest of Pocatello. The trend in nitrate concentrations in water from all wells in upward. The following organic compounds were detected in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin: cyanazine, 2,4-D DDT, dacthal, diazinon, dichloropropane, dieldrin, malathion, and metribuzin. Of 211 wells sampled for organic compounds, water from 17 contained detectable concentrations.

Idaho;Montana;Nevada;Utah;Wyoming

Hindcast of water availability in regional aquifer systems using MODFLOW Farm Process

Coupled groundwater and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle can be simulated by the Farm Process for MODFLOW (MF-FMP) in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas and aquifer-storage and recovery systems. MF-FMP is being applied to three productive agricultural regions of different scale in the State of California, USA, to assess the availability of water and the impacts of alternative management decisions. Hindcast simulations are conducted for similar periods from the 1960s to near recent times. Historical groundwater pumpage is mostly unknown in one region (Central Valley) and is estimated by MF-FMP. In another region (Pajaro Valley), recorded pumpage is used to calibrate model-estimated pumpage. Multiple types of observations are used to estimate uncertain parameters, such as hydraulic, land-use, and farm properties. MF-FMP simulates how climate variability and water-import availability affect water demand and supply. MF-FMP can be used to predict water availability based on anticipated changes in anthropogenic or natural water demands. Keywords groundwater; surface-water; irrigation; water availability; response to climate variability/change

Conference Paper

Estimation of nonpoint sources of phosphorus for lakes in the Puget Sound region, Washington

Control of eutrophication of lakes in watersheds undergoing development is facilitated by estimates of the amounts of phosphorus (P) that reach the lakes from areas under various types of land use. Using a mass-balance model, the writer calculated P loadings from present-day P concentrations measured in lake water and from other easily measured physical characteristics in a total of 28 lakes in drainage basins that contain only forest and residential land. The loadings from background sources (forest-land drainage and bulk precipitation) to each of the lakes were estimated by methods developed in a previous study. Differences between estimated present-day P loadings and loadings from background sources were attributed to changes in land use. The mean increase in annual P yield resulting from conversion of forest to residential land use was 7 kilograms per square kilometer, not including septic-tank system contributions. Calculated loadings from septic systems were found to correlate best with the number of near-shore dwellings around each lake in 1940. The regression equation expressing this relationship explained 36 percent of the sample variance. There was no significant correlation between estimated septic-tank system P loadings and numbers of dwellings present in 1960 or 1970. The evidence indicates that older systems might contribute more phosphorus to lakes than newer systems, and that there may be substantial time lags between septic-system installation and significant impacts on lake-water P concentrations. For lakes in basins that contain agricultural land, the P loading attributable to agriculture can be calculated as the difference between the estimated total loading and the sum of estimated loadings from all other (nonagricultural) sources. A comprehensive system for evaluating errors in all loading estimates is presented. The empirical relationships developed allow preliminary approximations of the cumulative impact that development has had on P loading and the amounts of P loading from generalized land-use categories for Puget Sound lowland lakes. In addition, the sensitivity of a lake to increased loading can be evaluated using the mass-balance model. The methods use data that are presently available for most lakes. All the estimates are most suitable for use in developing water-quality goals, setting priorities for lake studies, and designing studies of individual lakes. The suitability of the method for management of individual lakes will often be limited by relatively high levels of uncertainty, especially if the method is used to evaluate relatively small increases in P loading.

Washington

Sediment budgets, transport, and depositional trends in a large tidal delta

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is the largest delta on the west coast of the United States. It is formed where the confluence of California’s two largest rivers (the Sacramento and San Joaquin) meet the ocean tides and has a significant physical gradient from fluvial to tidal. It is a semidiurnal system (two high and two low tides per day). Today, the Delta is one of the most manipulated in the United States. Once composed of many shallow, meandering and braided dendritic channels and dead-end sloughs and wetlands, it is now a network of leveed canals moving clear water around subsided islands. It historically has supported a biologically diverse tidal wetland complex, of which only 3% remains today (Whipple et al., 2012). It has also witnessed a collapse in the native fish populations. The Delta provides critical habitat for native species, however the hydrology and water quality are complicated by manipulations and diversions to satisfy multiple statewide objectives. Today water managers face co-equal goals of water supply to Californians and maintenance of ecosystem health and function. The Delta is a hub for both a multi-hundred-million dollar agricultural industry and a massive north-to-south water delivery system, supplying the primary source of freshwater to Central Valley farmers and drinking water for two-thirds of California’s population. Large pump facilities support the water demand and draw water from the Delta, further altering circulation patterns and redirecting the net flow toward the export facilities (Monsen et al., 2007). Fluvial sedimentation, along with organic accumulation, creates and sustains the Delta landscape. Hydraulic mining for gold in the watershed during the late 1800s delivered an especially large sediment pulse to the Delta. More recently, from 1955 to the present, a significant sediment decline has been observed that is thought to have been caused mostly by the construction of water storage reservoirs that trap the upstream sediment supply (Wright and Schoellhamer, 2004). Today, one concern is whether the volume of sediment supplied from the upper watershed is sufficient to support ecological function and sustain the Delta landscape and ecosystem in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and proposed restoration associated with the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (http://baydeltaconservationplan.com). Ecosystem health is a management focus and 150,000 acres of restoration is currently proposed, therefore it is of increasingly important to understand the quantity of sediment available for marsh and wetland restoration throughout the Bay Delta Estuary. It is also important to understand the pathways for sediment transport and the sediment budget into each of three Delta regions (figure 1) to guide restoration planning, modeling, and management.

California

Relation of Mercury to Other Chemical Constituents in Ground Water in the Kirkwood-Cohansey Aquifer System, New Jersey Coastal Plain, and Mechanisms for Mobilization of Mercury from Sediments to Ground Water

Water from 265 domestic wells that tap the unconfined Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system in the Coastal Plain of New Jersey contained concentrations of mercury that are equal to or exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum contaminant level (MCL) of 2 ug/L (micrograms per liter). The wells range in depth from 50 to 200 feet, and are located in 32 discrete, mostly residential, areas that were developed primarily on former agricultural land during the 1950?s through the 1970?s. Concentrations in two other areas exceeded 1 ug/L. Naturally occurring mercury concentrations in ground water from the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system typically are less than 0.01 ug/L, but concentrations in water from some wells were as much as 42 ug/L. No evidence currently exists that conclusively links known point sources such as landfills, industrial operations, or commercial enterprises to most of the elevated concentrations of mercury in ground water in the residential areas. Possible sources of the mercury include pesticides and atmospheric deposition. Analysis of water from wells in 6 of the 34 areas for other constituents indicates that nitrate concentrations also commonly are elevated above background levels (which typically are undetectable at 0.01 milligrams per liter), and exceed the MCL of 10 milligrams per liter in some samples. Several volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including chloroform, also have been measured in water from wells at many of the 34 sites. Analytical results for water samples collected at several depths from boreholes at 2 of the 34 sites indicate elevated concentrations of calcium, magnesium, barium, strontium, nitrate, and chloride, which may be related to both agricultural chemical applications and septic-system effluent. Determinations of tritium and helium concentrations indicate that water containing elevated concentrations of mercury recharged the aquifer between 9.4 and 79 years ago, which includes the period during which many of the 34 sites were undergoing a change from agricultural or undeveloped to residential land use. Batch equilibrium experiments were used to measure adsorption of dissolved mercury, mercuric chloride, and phenylmercuric acetate by aquifer sediments at pH 3.5-4.0, 4.5-5.0, and 5.5-6.0. In nearly all cases, 55 to 95 percent of the mercury added to the sediments was adsorbed. Mercury mobilization from aquifer sediments inoculated with mercury was investigated by leaching the sediments with two concentrations of nitric acid (a component of acid rain), a sodium chloride solution (simulating road salt), and three fertilizer solutions. A solution of 20-20-20 (nitrogenphosphorous-potassium) fertilizer removed virtually all of the mercury with which the sediments had been inoculated. The sodium chloride solution was moderately effective in removing applied mercury from the sediments, as was a solution of nitric acid. A more dilute nitric acid solution and two sodium nitrate fertilizer solutions were less effective. Results of these experiments indicate that mercury adsorbs to aquifer sediments, but that varying amounts can be removed by infiltrating solutions, some of which can be related to specific land uses. Land-use history at the 34 sites generally indicates a change from agricultural or undeveloped settings to residential settings. Whatever the source of mercury to these sites, a change in the geochemical environment of the soil and aquifer brought about by land-use change probably provides mechanisms for mobilizing the mercury from soils and sediments to ground water.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

Financing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers

Despite advances in drought early warning systems, forecast information is rarely used for triggering and financing early actions, such as cash transfer. Scaling up cash transfer pay-outs , and overcoming the barriers to actions based on forecasts, requires an understanding of costs resulting from False Alarms, and the potential benefits associated with appropriate early interventions. On this study, we evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of cash transfer responses, comparing the relative costs of ex-ante cash transfers during the maize growing season to ex-post cash transfers after harvesting in Kenya. For that, we developed a forecast model using Fast-and Frugal Trees that unravels early warning relationships between climate variability, vegetation coverage, and maize yields at multiple lead times. Results indicate that our models correctly forecast low maize yield events 85% of the time across the districts studied, some already six months before harvesting. The models’ performance improves towards the end of the growing season driven by a decrease of 39% in the probability of False Alarms. Overall, we show that timely cash transfers ex-ante to a disaster can often be more cost-effective than investing in ex-post expenditures. Our findings suggest that early response can yield significant cost savings, and can potentially increase the effectiveness of existing cash transfer systems.

Science of the Total Environment

Importance of wetland landscape structure to shorebirds wintering in an agricultural valley

Only recently has the influence of landscape structure on habitat use been a research focus in wetland systems. During non-breeding periods when food can be locally limited, wetland spatial pattern across a landscape may be of great importance in determining wetland use. We studied the influence of landscape structure on abundances of wintering Dunlin (Calidris alpina) and Killdeer (Charadrius vociferus) observed on wetlands in the agricultural Willamette Valley of Oregon, USA, during two winters (1999a??2000, 2000a??2001) of differing rainfall. We examined (1) shorebird use within a sample of 100 km2 regions differing in landscape structure (hectares of shorebird habitat [wet, unvegetated]) and (2) use of sites differing in landscape context (area of shorebird habitat within a species-defined radius). For use of sites, we also assessed the influence of two local characteristics: percent of soil exposed and area of wet habitat. We analyzed data using linear regression and information-theoretic modeling. During the dry winter (2000a??2001), Dunlin were attracted to regions with more wetland habitat and their abundances at sites increased with greater area of shorebird habitat within both the site and the surrounding landscape. In contrast, Dunlin abundances at sites were related to availability of habitat at only a local scale during the wet winter (1999a??2000). Regional habitat availability was of little importance in predicting Killdeer distributions, and Killdeer site use appeared unrelated to habitat distributions at both landscape and local scales. Results suggest prioritizing sites for conservation that are located in areas with high wetland coverage.

Landscape Ecology

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland

Development and testing of method for assessing and mapping agricultural areas susceptible to atrazine leaching in the state of Washington

In a joint effort by the Washington State Department of Agriculture, the Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Geological Survey, the Environmental Protection Agency's Pesticide Root Zone Model and a Geographic Information System were used to develop and test a method for screening and mapping the susceptibility of ground water in agricultural areas to pesticide contamination. The objective was to produce a map that would be used by the Washington State Department of Agriculture to allocate resources for monitoring pesticide levels in ground water. The method was tested by producing a map showing susceptibility to leaching of the pesticide atrazine for the Columbia Basin Irrigation Project, which encompasses an area of intensive agriculture in eastern Washington. The reliability of the atrazine map was assessed by using statistical procedures to determine whether the median of the percentage of atrazine simulated to leach below the root zone in wells where atrazine was detected was statistically greater than the median percentage at wells where atrazine was not detected (at or above 0.001 microgram per liter) in 134 wells sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey. A statistical difference in medians was not found when all 134 wells were compared. However, a statistical difference was found in medians for two subsets of the 134 wells that were used in land-use studies (studies examining the quality of ground water beneath specific crops). The statistical results from wells from the land-use studies indicate that the model potentially can be used to map the relative susceptibility of agricultural areas to atrazine leaching. However, the distinction between areas of high and low susceptibility may not yet be sufficient to use the method for allocating resources to monitor water quality. Several options are offered for improving the reliability of future simulations.

Water-Resources Investigations Report

FLOOD REDUCTION EFFICIENCY OF THE WATER-MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN DADE COUNTY (MIAMI), FLORIDA.

Two tropical weather systems, Hurricane Donna (1960) and Tropical Storm Dennis (1981), produced nearly equivalent amounts of rainfall in a 48-hour period south of the Miami (Florida) area. These two systems caused extensive flooding over a 600-square mile area, which is primarily agricultural and low density residential. The 1960 and 1981 storms caused the highest water levels recorded in south Dade County since flood-control measures were initiated for south Florida in 1949. Ground-water levels during both storms rose 4 to 8 feet over most of the area causing widespread inundation. Operation of the water-management system in 1981 provided flood protection and rapid recession of ground-water levels thereby minimizing damage.

Conference Paper