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Mathematical modeling relevant to closed artificial ecosystems

The mathematical modeling of ecosystems has contributed much to the understanding of the dynamics of such systems. Ecosystems can include not only the natural variety, but also artificial systems designed and controlled by humans. These can range from agricultural systems and activated sludge plants, down to mesocosms, microcosms, and aquaria, which may have practical or research applications. Some purposes may require the design of systems that are completely closed, as far as material cycling is concerned. In all cases, mathematical modeling can help not only to understand the dynamics of the system, but also to design methods of control to keep the system operating in desired ranges. This paper reviews mathematical modeling relevant to the simulation and control of closed or semi-closed artificial ecosystems designed for biological production and recycling in applications in space. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Advances in Space Research↗

Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids

The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5 days prior to and 1, 9, and 35 days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10 μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the passage of a month.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Vegetation composition and structure of southern coastal plain pine forests: An ecological comparison

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystems are characterized by a diverse community of native groundcover species. Critics of plantation forestry claim that loblolly (Pinus taeda) and slash pine (Pinus elliottii) forests are devoid of native groundcover due to associated management practices. As a result of these practices, some believe that ecosystem functions characteristic of longleaf pine are lost under loblolly and slash pine plantation management. Our objective was to quantify and compare vegetation composition and structure of longleaf, loblolly, and slash pine forests of differing ages, management strategies, and land-use histories. Information from this study will further our understanding and lead to inferences about functional differences among pine cover types. Vegetation and environmental data were collected in 49 overstory plots across Southlands Experiment Forest in Bainbridge, GA. Nested plots, i.e. midstory, understory, and herbaceous, were replicated four times within each overstory plot. Over 400 species were identified. Herbaceous species richness was variable for all three pine cover types. Herbaceous richness for longleaf, slash, and loblolly pine averaged 15, 13, and 12 species per m2, respectively. Longleaf pine plots had significantly more (p < 0.029) herbaceous species and greater herbaceous cover (p < 0.001) than loblolly or slash pine plots. Longleaf and slash pine plots were otherwise similar in species richness and stand structure, both having lower overstory density, midstory density, and midstory cover than loblolly pine plots. Multivariate analyses provided additional perspectives on vegetation patterns. Ordination and classification procedures consistently placed herbaceous plots into two groups which we refer to as longleaf pine benchmark (34 plots) and non-benchmark (15 plots). Benchmark plots typically contained numerous herbaceous species characteristic of relic longleaf pine/wiregrass communities found in the area. Conversely, non-benchmark plots contained fewer species characteristic of relic longleaf pine/wiregrass communities and more ruderal species common to highly disturbed sites. The benchmark group included 12 naturally regenerated longleaf plots and 22 loblolly, slash, and longleaf pine plantation plots encompassing a broad range of silvicultural disturbances. Non-benchmark plots included eight afforested old-field plantation plots and seven cutover plantation plots. Regardless of overstory species, all afforested old fields were low either in native species richness or in abundance. Varying degrees of this groundcover condition were also found in some cutover plantation plots that were classified as non-benchmark. Environmental variables strongly influencing vegetation patterns included agricultural history and fire frequency. Results suggest that land-use history, particularly related to agriculture, has a greater influence on groundcover composition and structure in southern pine forests than more recent forest management activities or pine cover type. Additional research is needed to identify the potential for afforested old fields to recover native herbaceous species. In the interim, high-yield plantation management should initially target old-field sites which already support reduced numbers of groundcover species. Sites which have not been farmed in the past 50-60 years should be considered for longleaf pine restoration and multiple-use objectives, since they have the greatest potential for supporting diverse native vegetation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Forest Ecology and Management↗

Methods used to parameterize the spatially-explicit components of a state-and-transition simulation model

Spatially-explicit state-and-transition simulation models of land use and land cover (LULC) increase our ability to assess regional landscape characteristics and associated carbon dynamics across multiple scenarios. By characterizing appropriate spatial attributes such as forest age and land-use distribution, a state-and-transition model can more effectively simulate the pattern and spread of LULC changes. This manuscript describes the methods and input parameters of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a customized state-and-transition simulation model utilized to assess the relative impacts of LULC on carbon stocks for the conterminous U.S. The methods and input parameters are spatially explicit and describe initial conditions (strata, state classes and forest age), spatial multipliers, and carbon stock density. Initial conditions were derived from harmonization of multi-temporal data characterizing changes in land use as well as land cover. Harmonization combines numerous national-level datasets through a cell-based data fusion process to generate maps of primary LULC categories. Forest age was parameterized using data from the North American Carbon Program and spatially-explicit maps showing the locations of past disturbances (i.e. wildfire and harvest). Spatial multipliers were developed to spatially constrain the location of future LULC transitions. Based on distance-decay theory, maps were generated to guide the placement of changes related to forest harvest, agricultural intensification/extensification, and urbanization. We analyze the spatially-explicit input parameters with a sensitivity analysis, by showing how LUCAS responds to variations in the model input. This manuscript uses Mediterranean California as a regional subset to highlight local to regional aspects of land change, which demonstrates the utility of LUCAS at many scales and applications.

AIMS Environmental Science↗

Landsat yesterday and today: An American vision and an old challenge

Since the late 1960s, the United States government has invested more than $1 billion in designing, launching, and operating the Landsat (land satellite) series of Earth-observing satellites. Global change researchers, geologists, and environmental scientists have used images gathered by the satellites for purposes ranging from human health research, energy exploration, and pollution detection to agricultural assessments, urban growth monitoring, and earthquake lineament studies. The earliest data were captured on a digital medium called wide-band video tape (WBVT). However, two decades of unsound media storage conditions and a poorly maintained processing system have left the physically deteriorating WBVTs with no mechanism for interpretation. A national treasure was in jeopardy. With seed money from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a project to rescue the data. More than 21,000 tapes from the 1970s have been transcribed to stable, archival media, preserving the data for future studies in Earth System Science.

Journal of Map & Geography Libraries↗

Recovery of a top predator mediates negative eutrophic effects on seagrass

A fundamental goal of the study of ecology is to determine the drivers of habitat-forming vegetation, with much emphasis given to the relative importance to vegetation of “bottom-up” forces such as the role of nutrients and “top-down” forces such as the influence of herbivores and their predators. For coastal vegetation (e.g., kelp, seagrass, marsh, and mangroves) it has been well demonstrated that alterations to bottom-up forcing can cause major disturbances leading to loss of dominant vegetation. One such process is anthropogenic nutrient loading, which can lead to major changes in the abundance and species composition of primary producers, ultimately affecting important ecosystem services. In contrast, much less is known about the relative importance of apex predators on coastal vegetated ecosystems because most top predator populations have been depleted or lost completely. Here we provide evidence that an unusual four-level trophic cascade applies in one such system, whereby a top predator mitigates the bottom-up influences of nutrient loading. In a study of seagrass beds in an estuarine ecosystem exposed to extreme nutrient loading, we use a combination of a 50-y time series analysis, spatial comparisons, and mesocosm and field experiments to demonstrate that sea otters ( Enhydra lutris ) promote the growth and expansion of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ) through a trophic cascade, counteracting the negative effects of agriculturally induced nutrient loading. Our results add to a small but growing body of literature illustrating that significant interactions between bottom-up and top-down forces occur, in this case with consequences for the conservation of valued ecosystem services provided by seagrass.

California↗

Estimating the effects of wetland conservation practices in croplands: Approaches for modeling in CEAP–Cropland Assessment

Quantifying the current and potential benefits of conservation practices can be a valuable tool for encouraging greater practice adoption on agricultural lands. A goal of the CEAP-Cropland Assessment is to estimate the environmental effects of conservation practices that reduce losses (exports) of soil, nutrients, and pesticides from farmlands to streams and rivers. The assessment approach combines empirical data on reported cropland practices with simulation modeling that compares field-level exports for scenarios “with practices” and “without practices.” Conserved, restored, and created wetlands collectively represent conservation practices that can influence sediment and nutrient exports from croplands. However, modeling the role of wetlands within croplands presents some challenges, including the potential for negative impacts of sediment and nutrient inputs on wetland functions. This Science Note outlines some preliminary solutions for incorporating wetlands and wetland practices into the CEAP-Cropland modeling framework. First, modeling the effects of wetland practices requires identifying wetland hydrogeomorphic type and accounting for the condition of both the wetland and an adjacent upland zone. Second, modeling is facilitated by classifying wetland-related practices into two functional categories (wetland and upland buffer). Third, simulating practice effects requires alternative field configurations to account for hydrological differences among wetland types. These ideas are illustrated for two contrasting wetland types (riparian and depressional).

CEAP-Wetlands Science Note↗

Modeling the probability of arsenic in groundwater in New England as a tool for exposure assessment

We developed a process-based model to predict the probability of arsenic exceeding 5 ??g/L in drinking water wells in New England bedrock aquifers. The model is being used for exposure assessment in an epidemiologic study of bladder cancer. One important study hypothesis that may explain increased bladder cancer risk is elevated concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water. In eastern New England, 20-30% of private wells exceed the arsenic drinking water standard of 10 micrograms per liter. Our predictive model significantly improves the understanding of factors associated with arsenic contamination in New England. Specific rock types, high arsenic concentrations in stream sediments, geochemical factors related to areas of Pleistocene marine inundation and proximity to intrusive granitic plutons, and hydrologic and landscape variables relating to groundwater residence time increase the probability of arsenic occurrence in groundwater. Previous studies suggest that arsenic in bedrock groundwater may be partly from past arsenical pesticide use. Variables representing historic agricultural inputs do not improve the model, indicating that this source does not significantly contribute to current arsenic concentrations. Due to the complexity of the fractured bedrock aquifers in the region, well depth and related variables also are not significant predictors. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Identification of a whitefly species by genomic and behavioral studies

An introduced whitefly species, responsible for over a half billion dollars in damage to U.S. agricultural production in 1991, is morphologically indistinguishable from Bemisia tabaci (Gennadius). However, with the use of polymerase chain reaction-based DNA differentiation tests, allozymic frequency analyses, crossing experiments, and mating behavior studies, the introduced whitefly is found to be a distinct species. Recognition of this new species, the silverleaf whitefly, is critical in the search for management options.

Science↗

Summary of hydrologic conditions in Kansas, water year 2014

The U.S. Geological Survey Kansas Water Science Center, in cooperation with Federal, State, and local agencies, maintains a long-term network of hydrologic monitoring gages in the State of Kansas. These include 206 real-time streamgages, 12 real-time reservoir-level monitoring stations, and 32 groundwater monitoring wells. These data and associated analyses, accumulated over time, provide a unique overview of hydrologic conditions and help improve our understanding of Kansas&rsquo;s water resources. Yearly hydrologic conditions are determined by comparing statistical analyses of current and historical water year data for the period of record. These data are used in protecting life and property, and managing water resources for agricultural, industrial, public supply, ecological, and recreational purposes.

Kansas↗

WHISPers—Providing situational awareness of wildlife disease threats to the Nation—A fact sheet for the biosurveillance community

Solutions for emerging infectious disease and bioterror threats can be improved by incorporating integrated biodefense strategies, including improved surveillance for animal and zoonotic diseases, strong national leadership, and effective management tools. Active biosurveillance for disease events is key to early detection, warning, and overall situational awareness and enables better communication, coordination, decision making, and data-driven responses. The national biosurveillance infrastructure has well-established channels for human and domestic animal health data through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and U.S. Department of Agriculture, and State, county, and local authorities. Wildlife disease information, however, has been more challenging to acquire and access, in part, due to the comparatively small infrastructure and resources dedicated to wildlife health and also because regulatory authority for wildlife and wildlife health is split among Federal, State, Tribal, and indigenous natural resource authorities. To address these issues, the Wildlife Health Information Sharing Partnership-event reporting system (WHISPers; https://whispers.usgs.gov ) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center to promote collaboration and sharing of wildlife health information and to provide situational awareness and timely information about wildlife disease threats. WHISPers is a free science gateway and data portal that provides interactive query, display, reporting, and export capabilities for wildlife health event summary information.

Fact Sheet↗

Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

United States (U.S.) energy policy includes an expectation that bioenergy will be a substantial future energy source. In particular, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) aims to increase annual U.S. biofuel (secondary bioenergy) production by more than 3-fold, from 40 to 136 billion liters ethanol, which implies an even larger increase in biomass demand (primary energy), from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 EJ yr –1 . However, our understanding of many of the factors used to establish such energy targets is far from complete, introducing significgant uncertainty into the feasibility of current estimates of bioenergy potential. Here, we utilized satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data—measured for every 1 km 2 of the 7.2 million km 2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S.—to estimate primary bioenergy potential (PBP). Our results indicate that PBP of the conterminous U.S. ranges from roughly 5.9 to 22.2 EJ yr –1 , depending on land use. The low end of this range represents the potential when harvesting residues only, while the high end would require an annual biomass harvest over an area more than three times current U.S. agricultural extent. While EISA energy targets are theoretically achievable, we show that meeting these targets utilizing current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current crop harvest or the conversion of 60% of rangeland productivity. Accordingly, realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential are critical for effective incorporation of bioenergy into the national energy portfolio.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Contribution of increasing CO2 and climate to carbon storage by ecosystems in the United States

The effects of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate on net carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States for the period 1895-1993 were modeled with new, detailed historical climate information. For the period 1980-1993, results from an ensemble of three models agree within 25%, simulating a land carbon sink from CO2 and climate effects of 0.08 gigaton of carbon per year. The best estimates of the total sink from inventory data are about three times larger, suggesting that processes such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land or in forests harvested before 1980 have effects as large as or larger than the direct effects of CO2 and climate. The modeled sink varies by about 100% from year to year as a result of climate variability.

Science↗

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992&ndash;2001, 1997&ndash;2006, and 2001&ndash;2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with variable sample distributions over time and among pesticides with changes in use during different periods and durations. Concentration trends were analyzed using the SEAWAVE-Q model, which incorporates intra-annual variability in concentration and measures of long-term, mid-term, and short-term streamflow variability. Trends in agricultural use within each of the river basins were determined using interval-censored regression with high and low estimates of use. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Science of the Total Environment↗

Science support for evaluating natural recovery of polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in fish from Crab Orchard Lake, Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge, Illinois

Introduction Crab Orchard Lake in southern Illinois is one of the largest and most popular recreational lakes in the state. Construction of the nearly 7,000-acre reservoir in the late 1930s created employment opportunities through the Works Progress Administration, and the lake itself was intended to supply water, control flooding, and provide recreational opportunities for local communities (Stall, 1954). In 1942, the Department of War appropriated or purchased more than 20,000 acres of land around Crab Orchard Lake and constructed the Illinois Ordnance Plant, which manufactured bombs and anti-tank mines during World War II. After the war, an Act of Congress transferred the property to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge was established on August 5, 1947, for the joint purposes of wildlife conservation, agriculture, recreation, and industry. Production of explosives continued, but new industries also moved onsite. More than 200 tenants have held leases with Crab Orchard National Wildlife Refuge and have operated a variety of manufacturing plants (electrical components, plated metal parts, ink, machined parts, painted products, and boats) on-site. Soils, water, and sediments in several areas of the refuge were contaminated with hazardous substances from handling and disposal methods that are no longer acceptable environmental practice (for example, direct discharge to surface water, use of unlined landfills). Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination at the refuge was identified in the 1970s, and a PCB-based fish-consumption advisory has been in effect since 1988 for Crab Orchard Lake. The present advisory covers common carp ( Cyprinus carpio ) and channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus ); see Illinois Department of Public Health (2017). Some of the most contaminated areas of the refuge were actively remediated, and natural ecosystem recovery processes are expected to further reduce residual PCB concentrations in the lake. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service sought technical support to understand environmental drivers of current (2017) PCB residues in fish tissue and patterns in PCB residues through time to inform the fish-consumption advisory for Crab Orchard Lake. This project is planned in two phases (Tasks 1 and 2); the first phase is included in this report. Task 1, reported here, includes a review of existing literature and a brief overview focused on environmental and biochemical/physiological processes that drive PCB residues in fish tissue. This review specifically targets processes that are relevant for freshwater lacustrine environments such as those at Crab Orchard Lake. In addition to discussions of environmental fate, metabolism, and accumulation of PCBs, this review includes a brief scientifically based explanation of approaches used to establish fish-consumption advisories. A planned second task (Task 2) will include a compilation and summary of existing data on PCB residues in fish tissue samples from Crab Orchard Lake. This summary will also place Crab Orchard Lake data in a broader geographic context through a comparison with fish data from other Midwestern lakes. When Task 1 and Task 2 are complete, resource managers will have (a) a synthesis of existing literature that characterizes the processes influencing the fate of residual PCBs remaining in systems such as Crab Orchard Lake, (b) a summary of natural PCB attenuation processes for use in risk communication with the public, and (c) a summary of existing data on PCBs in fish tissues from Crab Orchard Lake, including exploratory plots of tissue residues through time. Overall, this project will provide data to help resource managers better understand the ecological and public health consequences of residual PCBs in Crab Orchard Lake.

Illinois↗

Ancient infrastructure offers sustainable agricultural solutions to dryland farming

For 1000 years, human populations in dryland regions of the North American Southwest (NAS) extensively constructed diverse forms of agricultural infrastructure, including canals, linear rock alignments, check dams, stock ponds, and other earthworks and rock structures. The long-term hydrological impacts of these and the demographic and socio-political drivers of construction and maintenance have yet to be fully documented or vetted. This paper summarizes existing knowledge attained from the United Stated portion of the NAS, but a lot is still unknown about Northwest Mexico. There remain outstanding questions related to understanding how ancient agriculture might improve modern adaptability and resilience. The detailed ecological and topographical variability of this arid landscape illustrates the essential need for infrastructure in maintaining water and managing the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle. We describe pros and cons of different types of infrastructure and examine socio-environmental trade-offs between robustness and vulnerability produced by reliance on infrastructure, drawing from existing literature to examine timescales longer than a human lifespan. The development of historically-informed management approaches to increase dryland climate resilience benefits from incorporating constraints and opportunities mediated by past landscape modifications. We present a plan for leveraging existing knowledge, available science, and potential, to extend our knowledge base and further explore causal relationships.

Book chapter↗

Land use, spatial scale, and stream systems: Lessons from an agricultural region

We synthesized nine studies that examined the influence of land use at different spatial scales in structuring biotic assemblages and stream channel characteristics in southeastern Minnesota streams. Recent studies have disagreed about the relative importance of catchment versus local characteristics in explaining variation in fish assemblages. Our synthesis indicates that both riparian- and catchment-scale land use explained significant variation in water quality, channel morphology, and fish distribution and density. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages can be positively affected by increasing the extent of perennial riparian and upland vegetation. Our synthesis is robust; more than 425 stream reaches were examined in an area that includes a portion of three ecoregions. Fishes ranged from coldwater to warmwater adapted. We suggest that efforts to rehabilitate stream system form and function over the long term should focus on increasing perennial vegetation in both riparian areas and uplands and on managing vegetation in large, contiguous blocks. ?? 2005 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Environmental Management↗

Could a freshwater fish be at the root of dystrophic crises in a coastal lagoon?

Eutrophication has a profound impact on ecosystems worldwide. Grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella , an herbivorous fish, has been introduced to control aquatic plant overgrowth caused by eutrophication, but could have other, potentially detrimental, effects. We used the Po di Volano basin (south of the Po River delta, northern Italy) as a test case to explore whether grass carp effects on canal aquatic vegetation could be at the root of historical changes in N loads exported from the basin to the Goro Lagoon. We modeled the aquatic vegetation production and standing crop, its denitrification potential, and its consumption by introduced grass carp. We then examined whether changes in historical nitrogen loads matched the modeled losses of the drainage network denitrification function or other changes in agricultural practices. Our results indicate that introduced grass carp could completely remove submerged vegetation in the Po di Volano canal network, which could – in turn – lead to substantial loss of the denitrification function of the system, causing in an increase in downstream nitrogen loads. A corresponding increase, matching both timing and magnitude, was detected in historical nitrogen loads to the Goro Lagoon, which were significantly different before and after the time of modeled collapse of the denitrification function. This increase was not clearly linked to watershed use or agricultural practices, which implies that the loss of the denitrification function through grass carp overgrazing could be a likely explanation of the increase in downstream nitrogen loads. Perhaps for the first time, we provide evidence that a freshwater fish introduction could have caused long-lasting changes in nutrient dynamics that are exported downstream to areas where the fish is not present.

Po River basin↗