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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2011

A common scaling rule for abundance, energetics, and production of parasitic and free-living species

The metabolic theory of ecology uses the scaling of metabolism with body size and temperature to explain the causes and consequences of species abundance. However, the theory and its empirical tests have never simultaneously examined parasites alongside free-living species. This is unfortunate because parasites represent at least half of species diversity. We show that metabolic scaling theory could not account for the abundance of parasitic or free-living species in three estuarine food webs until accounting for trophic dynamics. Analyses then revealed that the abundance of all species uniformly scaled with body mass to the - 3/4 power. This result indicates "production equivalence," where biomass production within trophic levels is invariant of body size across all species and functional groups: invertebrate or vertebrate, ectothermic or endothermic, and free-living or parasitic.

Science↗
USGS2019

Extreme reduction in nutritional value of a key forage fish during the Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016

Pacific sand lance Ammodytes personatus are a key forage fish in the North Pacific for many species of salmon, groundfish, seabirds, and marine mammals and have historically been important to predators in relatively warm years. However, extreme declines in the nutritional value of sand lance in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, during 2012-2016 indicate that energy transfer from lower trophic levels to predators via sand lance may have been disrupted during the North Pacific marine heatwave in 2015 and 2016. Nutritional value (length, energy density, and whole-body energy) was measured in age-0 and age-1 sand lance collected during July in cool (2012-2013) and increasingly warm (2014-2016) years. The value of age-0 fish was relatively stable, with only minor differences among years for length and whole-body energy. By contrast, the value of age-1 fish significantly declined in 2015, and by 2016 they were 38% shorter and 13% lower in energy density compared to cooler years. This contributed to significant declines in whole-body energy of 44% in 2015 and 89% in 2016 compared to cooler years (2012-2014). The 2015 sand lance cohort experienced little growth or lipid accumulation from July 2015 at age-0 to July 2016 at age-1. This effective disruption of energy flow through pelagic food webs probably contributed to population declines and/or breeding failures observed among several predators in the Gulf of Alaska and suggests that tipping points were reached during the heatwave.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗
USGS2020

Trends and biological effects of environmental contaminants in lamprey

Environmental contamination is of global concern. Lamprey are scientifically, ecologically, culturally, and economically important fishes. Our study represents the first synthesis ever on environmental contamination in lamprey. Objectives of this study include: (1) evaluate lethal and sublethal effects of environmental contaminants on lamprey, thereby providing insight into the potential for environmental contaminants to affect lamprey abundance, (2) highlight the unique characteristics of contaminant accumulation in lamprey, (3) determine whether spatial and temporal trends observed in contaminant concentrations of other top predators of aquatic food webs are reflected in the spatial and temporal trends of contaminant concentrations of lamprey, (4) identify key environmental contaminants affecting consumption advisories for people eating lamprey, and (5) identify important gaps in our knowledge of environmental contamination in lamprey. The geographic scope of this synthesis is worldwide. We conclude that, in general, the environmental contaminant concentrations that have been experienced by lamprey in the wild appear to be nonlethal to lamprey. However, environmental contaminants exert sublethal effects on lamprey. Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) and Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) are relatively high in total mercury (Hg) concentration compared with other fishes. Compared with other top predators, lamprey are relatively low in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration and concentrations of organochlorine pesticides. We also conclude that regulations on the use of PCBs, beginning in the 1970s, were effective in dramatically reducing PCB concentration in lamprey since the 1970s. Emerging contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals, microplastics, and per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS), have yet to be studied in lamprey.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2013

The floodplain food web mosaic: a study of its importance to salmon and steelhead with implications for their recovery

Although numerous studies have attempted to place species of interest within the context of food webs, such efforts have generally occurred at small scales or disregard potentially important spatial heterogeneity. If food web approaches are to be employed to manage species, studies are needed that evaluate the multiple habitats and associated webs of interactions in which these species participate. Here, we quantify the food webs that sustain rearing salmon and steelhead within a floodplain landscape of the Methow River, Washington, USA, a location where restoration has been proposed to restore side channels in an attempt to recover anadromous fishes. We combined year-long measures of production, food demand, and diet composition for the fish assemblage with estimates of invertebrate prey productivity to quantify food webs within the main channel and five different, intact, side channels; ranging from channels that remained connected to the main channel at low flow to those reduced to floodplain ponds. Although we found that habitats within the floodplain had similar invertebrate prey production, these habitats hosted different local food webs. In the main channel, 95% of total prey consumption flowed to fishes that are not the target of proposed restoration. These fishes consumed 64% and 47% of the prey resources that were found to be important to fueling chinook and steelhead production in the main channel, respectively. Conversely, in side channels, a greater proportion of prey was consumed by anadromous salmonids. As a result, carrying capacity estimates based on food were 251% higher, on average, for anadromous salmonids in side channels than the main channel. However, salmon and steelhead production was generally well below estimated capacity in both the main and side channels, suggesting these habitats are under-seeded with respect to food, and that much larger populations could be supported. Overall, this study demonstrates that floodplain heterogeneity is associated with the occurrence of a mosaic of food webs, all of which were utilized by anadromous salmonids, and all of which may be important to their recovery and persistence. In the long term, these and other fishes would likely benefit from restoring the processes that maintain floodplain complexity.

Washington↗
USGS2020

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗
USGS2022

A web-based tool for assessing the condition of benthic diatom assemblages in streams and rivers of the conterminous United States

Benthic diatom assemblages are known to be indicative of water quality but have yet to be widely adopted in biological assessments in the United States due to several limitations. Our goal was to address some of these limitations by developing regional multi-metric indices (MMIs) that are robust to inter-laboratory taxonomic inconsistency, adjusted for natural covariates, and sensitive to a wide range of anthropogenic stressors. We aggregated bioassessment data from two national-scale federal programs and used a data-driven analysis in which all-possible combinations of 2–7 metrics were compared for three measures of performance. After ranking the best-performing MMIs, we selected the final MMIs by evaluating stress-response relations in independent regional datasets of diatom samples paired with measures of several water-quality stressors, including herbicides and streamflow flashiness. Each regional MMI performed well at calibration sites and represented diverse aspects of the structure and function of diatom communities. Most metrics included in the best MMIs were modeled to account for natural variation including climate, topography, soil characteristics, lithology, and groundwater influence on streamflow. MMI performance improved with higher numbers of component metrics, but this effect diminished beyond six metrics. Component metrics of MMIs were associated with a broad suite of measured stressors in every region, including salinity, nutrients, herbicides, and streamflow flashiness. We provide a web-based software application that allows users in the conterminous United States to apply our MMIs to their own datasets and compare MMI scores from their sites to a broader regional context.

Ecological Indicators↗
USGS2012

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Santa Cruz watershed↗
USGS2020

Relation of fish intersex to contaminants in riverine sport fishes

Endocrine active compounds (EACs) are pollutants that have been recognized as an emerging and widespread threat to aquatic ecosystems globally. Intersex, the presence of female germ cells within a predominantly male gonad, is considered a biomarker of endocrine disruption caused by EACs. We measured a suite of EACs and assessed their associated impacts on fish intersex occurrence and severity in a large, regulated river system in North Carolina and South Carolina, USA. Our specific objective was to determine the relationship of contaminants in water, sediment, and fish tissue with the occurrence and severity of the intersex condition in wild, adult black bass ( Micropterus ), sunfish ( Lepomis ), and catfish (Ictaluridae) species at 11 sites located on the Yadkin-Pee Dee River. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), ethinylestradiol (EE2), and heavy metals were the most prevalent contaminants that exceeded effect levels for the protection of aquatic organisms. Fish intersex condition was most frequently observed and most severe in black basses and was less frequently detected and less severe in sunfishes and catfishes. The occurrence of the intersex condition in fish showed site-related effects, rather than increasing longitudinal trends from upstream to downstream. Mean black bass and catfish tissue contaminant concentrations were higher than that of sunfish, likely because of the latter's lower trophic position in the food web. Principal component analysis identified waterborne PAHs as the most correlated environmental contaminant with intersex occurrence and severity in black bass and sunfish. As indicated by the intersex condition, EACs have adverse but often variable effects on the health of wild sport fishes in this river, likely due to fluctuations in EAC inputs and the dynamic nature of the riverine system. These findings enhance the understanding of the relationship between contaminants and fish health and provide information to guide ecologically comprehensive conservation and management decisions.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2020

The role of sand lances (Ammodytes sp.) in the Northwest Atlantic Ecosystem: A synthesis of current knowledge with implications for conservation and management

The American sand lance ( Ammodytes americanus , Ammodytidae) and the Northern sand lance ( A. dubius , Ammodytidae) are small forage fishes that play an important functional role in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA). The NWA is a highly dynamic ecosystem currently facing increased risks from climate change, fishing and energy development. We need a better understanding of the biology, population dynamics and ecosystem role of Ammodytes to inform relevant management, climate adaptation and conservation efforts. To meet this need, we synthesized available data on the (a) life history, behaviour and distribution; (b) trophic ecology; (c) threats and vulnerabilities; and (d) ecosystem services role of Ammodytes in the NWA. Overall, 72 regional predators including 45 species of fishes, two squids, 16 seabirds and nine marine mammals were found to consume Ammodytes . Priority research needs identified during this effort include basic information on the patterns and drivers in abundance and distribution of Ammodytes , improved assessments of reproductive biology schedules and investigations of regional sensitivity and resilience to climate change, fishing and habitat disturbance. Food web studies are also needed to evaluate trophic linkages and to assess the consequences of inconsistent zooplankton prey and predator fields on energy flow within the NWA ecosystem. Synthesis results represent the first comprehensive assessment of Ammodytes in the NWA and are intended to inform new research and support regional ecosystem‐based management approaches.

Northwest Atlantic↗
USGS2005

Soil biota can change after exotic plant invasion: Does this affect ecosystem processes?

Invasion of the exotic annual grass Bromus tectorum into stands of the native perennial grass Hilaria jamesii significantly reduced the abundance of soil biota, especially microarthropods and nematodes. Effects of invasion on active and total bacterial and fungal biomass were variable, although populations generally increased after 50+ years of invasion. The invasion of Bromus also resulted in a decrease in richness and a species shift in plants, microarthropods, fungi, and nematodes. However, despite the depauperate soil fauna at the invaded sites, no effects were seen on cellulose decomposition rates, nitrogen mineralization rates, or vascular plant growth. When Hilaria was planted into soils from not-invaded, recently invaded, and historically invaded sites (all currently or once dominated by Hilaria), germination and survivorship were not affected. In contrast, aboveground Hilaria biomass was significantly greater in recently invaded soils than in the other two soils. We attributed the Hilaria response to differences in soil nutrients present before the invasion, especially soil nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, as these nutrients were elevated in the soils that produced the greatest Hilaria biomass. Our data suggest that it is not soil biotic richness per se that determines soil process rates or plant productivity, but instead that either (1) the presence of a few critical soil food web taxa can keep ecosystem function high, (2) nutrient loss is very slow in this ecosystem, and/or (3) these processes are microbially driven. However, the presence of Bromus may reduce key soil nutrients over time and thus may eventually suppress native plant success.

Utah↗
USGS2014

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual‐based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced numbers in certain vulnerable populations. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web‐based interactive mapping prototype, should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.

Montana↗
USGS2024

Lack of strong responses to the Pacific marine heatwave by benthivorous marine birds indicates importance of trophic drivers

The Pacific marine heatwave (PMH) of 2014-2016 was an intense, long-lasting environmental disturbance expressed throughout the north Pacific. While dramatic consequences of the PMH on pelagic food webs have been well documented, effects on nearshore food webs, i.e., those based on macroalgae primary productivity, benthic invertebrate intermediate consumers, and specialized benthivorous top predators including some marine birds, are not well understood. We conducted summer and winter coastline surveys in two National Parks in the northern Gulf of Alaska from 2006 – 2022. We evaluated changes in abundance of benthivorous marine birds in relation to the heatwave, after accounting for effects of season and region. We also evaluated changes in abundance of nearshore benthic invertebrate prey data to allow specific consideration of a prey-based mechanism for effects of the PMH across food webs. We found that benthivorous marine birds, consisting largely of sea ducks and shorebirds, did not show a strong response to the PMH, unlike significant effects demonstrated by piscivorous birds in pelagic biomes. Unlike extreme reductions in quantity and quality of forage fish documented in other studies, we found that common benthic invertebrate prey abundance remained relatively stable, with only minor increases or decreases, in association with the PMH. Our results support the hypothesis that food availability has a strong mediating effect of the PMH on upper trophic levels across food webs. These findings show how a large-scale environmental perturbation affects biological communities through trophic pathways, provides insight into ecosystem resiliency, and can inform management strategies in the face of persistent climate change.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Tradeoffs with growth limit host range in complex life-cycle helminths

Parasitic worms with complex life cycles have several developmental stages, with each stage creating opportunities to infect additional host species. Using a dataset for 973 species of trophically transmitted acanthocephalans, cestodes, and nematodes, we confirmed that worms with longer life cycles (i.e. more successive hosts) infect a greater diversity of host species and taxa (after controlling for study effort). Generalism at the stage level was highest for ‘middle’ life stages, the second and third intermediate hosts of long life cycles. By simulating life cycles in real food webs, we found that middle stages had more potential host species to infect, suggesting that opportunity constrains generalism. However, parasites usually infected fewer host species than expected from simulated cycles, suggesting generalism also has costs. There was no tradeoff in generalism from one stage to the next, but worms spent less time growing and developing in stages where they infected more taxonomically diverse hosts. Our results demonstrate that life cycle complexity favors high generalism, and host use across life stages is determined by both ecological opportunity and life history tradeoffs.

The American Naturalist↗
USGS2006

Data Delivery and Mapping Over the Web: National Water-Quality Assessment Data Warehouse

The U.S. Geological Survey began its National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program in 1991, systematically collecting chemical, biological, and physical water-quality data from study units (basins) across the Nation. In 1999, the NAWQA Program developed a data warehouse to better facilitate national and regional analysis of data from 36 study units started in 1991 and 1994. Data from 15 study units started in 1997 were added to the warehouse in 2001. The warehouse currently contains and links the following data: -- Chemical concentrations in water, sediment, and aquatic-organism tissues and related quality-control data from the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS), -- Biological data for stream-habitat and ecological-community data on fish, algae, and benthic invertebrates, -- Site, well, and basin information associated with thousands of descriptive variables derived from spatial analysis, like land use, soil, and population density, and -- Daily streamflow and temperature information from NWIS for selected sampling sites.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2022

Using carbon, nitrogen, and mercury isotope values to distinguish mercury sources to Alaskan lake trout

Lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), collected from 13 remote lakes located in southwestern Alaska, were analyzed for carbon, nitrogen, and mercury (Hg) stable isotope values to assess the importance of migrating oceanic salmon, volcanic activity, and atmospheric deposition to fish Hg burden. Methylmercury (MeHg) bioaccumulation in phytoplankton (5.0–6.9 kg L –1 ) was also measured to quantify the basal uptake of MeHg to these aquatic food webs. Hg isotope values in lake trout revealed that while the extent of precipitation-delivered Hg was similar across the entire study area, volcanic Hg is likely an important additional source to lake trout in proximate lakes. In contrast, migratory salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ) deliver little MeHg to lake trout directly, although indirect delivery processes via decay could exist. A high level of variability in carbon, nitrogen, and Hg isotope values indicates niche partitioning in lake trout populations within each lake and that a complex suite of ecological interactions is occurring, complicating the conceptually linear assessment of the contaminant source to the receiving organism. Without connecting energy and contaminant isotope axes, we would not have understood why lake trout from these pristine lakes have highly variable Hg burdens despite consistently low water Hg and comparable age-length dynamics.

Alaska↗
USGS2018

Pulsed flows, tributary inputs, and food web structure in a highly regulated river

1.Dams disrupt the river continuum, altering hydrology, biodiversity, and energy flow. Although research indicates that tributary inputs have the potential to dilute these effects, knowledge at the food web level is still scarce. 2.Here we examined the riverine food web structure of the Colorado River below Glen Canyon Dam, focusing on organic matter sources, trophic diversity, and food chain length. We asked how these components respond to pulsed flows from tributaries following monsoon thunderstorms that seasonally increase streamflow in the American Southwest. 3.Tributaries increased the relative importance of terrestrial organic matter, particularly during the wet season below junctures of key tributaries. This contrasted with the algal-based food web present immediately below Glen Canyon Dam. 4.Tributary inputs during the monsoon also increased trophic diversity and food chain length: food chain length peaked below the confluence with the largest tributary (by discharge) in Grand Canyon, increasing by >1 trophic level over a 4-5 kilometre reach possibly due to aquatic prey being flushed into the mainstem during heavy rain events. 5.Our results illustrate that large tributaries can create seasonal discontinuities, influencing riverine food web structure in terms of allochthony, food web diversity, and food chain length. 6.Synthesis and applications. Pulsed flows from unregulated tributaries following seasonal monsoon rains increase the importance of terrestrially-derived organic matter in large, regulated river food webs, increasing food chain length and trophic diversity downstream of tributary inputs. Protecting unregulated tributaries within hydropower cascades may be important if we are to mitigate food web structure alteration due to flow regulation by large dams. This is critical in the light of global hydropower development, especially in megadiverse, developing countries where dam placement (including completed and planned structures) is in tributaries.

Colorado River↗
USGS2004

Fort Collins Science Center: Ecosystem Dynamics

Many challenging natural resource management issues require consideration of a web of interactions among ecosystem components. The spatial and temporal complexity of these ecosystem problems demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating biotic and abiotic processes. The goals of the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch are to provide sound science to aid federal resource managers and use long-term, place-focused research and monitoring on federal lands to advance ecosystem science. Current studies fall into five general areas. Herbivore-Ecosystem Interactions examines the efficacy of multiple controls on selected herbivore populations and cascading effects through predator-herbivore-plant-soil linkages. Riparian Ecology is concerned with interactions among streamflow, fluvial geomorphology, and riparian vegetation. Integrated Fire Science focuses on the effects of fire on plant and animal communities at multiple scales, and on the interactions between post-fire plant, runoff, and erosion processes. Reference Ecosystems comprises long-term, place-based studies of ecosystem biogeochemistry. Finally, Integrated Assessments is investigating how to synthesize multiple ecosystem stressors and responses over complex landscapes in ways that are useful for management and planning.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2019

The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens ( Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia ) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia , we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

Hawaii↗