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USGS2024

Coastal wetlands in the Anthropocene

We review the functioning and sustainability of coastal marshes and mangroves. Urbanized humans have a 7,000-year-old enduring relationship to coastal wetlands. Wetlands include marshes, salt flats, and saline and freshwater forests. Coastal wetlands occur in all climate zones but are most abundant in deltas. Mangroves are tropical, whereas marshes occur from tropical to boreal areas. Quantification of coastal wetland areas has advanced in recent years but is still insufficiently accurate. Climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to lead to significant wetland losses and other impacts on coastal wetlands and the humans associated with them. Landward migration and coastal retreat are not expected to significantly reduce coastal wetland losses. Nitrogen watershed inputs are unlikely to alter coastal marsh stability because watershed loadings are mostly significantly lower than those in fertilization studies that show decreased belowground biomass and increased decomposition of soil organic matter. Blue carbon is not expected to significantly reduce climate impacts. The high values of ecosystem goods and services of wetlands are expected to be reduced by area losses. Humans have had strong impacts on coastal wetlands in the Holocene, and these impacts are expected to increase in the Anthropocene.

Annual Review of Environment and Resources↗

USGS2020

Minnesota and Landsat

Landsat land-imaging satellites underpin public and private sector decisions in the Minnesota and across the Nation for effective adaptation to changing landscapes. Those decisions often lead to enhanced agricultural productivity, smart urban development, and sustainable forest management. Landsat also enables more accurate inland lake water-quality monitoring, increased disaster resilience and risk assessment, effective water use, more-informed climate research, and other applications.

Minnesota↗

USGS1988

The Detroit River, Michigan: an ecological profile

A part of the connecting channel system between Lake Huron and Lake Erie, the Detroit River forms an integral link between the two lakes for both humans and biological resources such as fish, nutrients, and plant detritus. This profile summarizes existing scientific information on the ecological structure and functioning of this ecosystem. Topics include the geological history of the region, climatic influences, river hydrology, lower trophic-level biotic components, native and introduced fishes, waterfowl use, ecological interrelationships, commercial and recreational uses of the river, and current management issues. Despite urbanization, the river still supports diverse fish, waterfowl, and benthic populations. Management issues include sewer overflows; maintenance dredging for navigation and port activities; industrial discharges of potentially hazardous materials; and wetland, fishery, and waterfowl protection and enhancement.

Biological Report↗

USGS2012

Loss and modification of habitat

Amphibians live in a wide variety of habitats around the world, many of which have been modified or destroyed by human activities. Most species have unique life history characteristics adapted to specific climates, habitats (e.g., lentic, lotic, terrestrial, arboreal, fossorial, amphibious), and local conditions that provide suitable areas for reproduction, development and growth, shelter from environmental extremes, and predation, as well as connectivity to other populations or habitats. Although some species are entirely aquatic or terrestrial, most amphibians, as their name implies, lead a dual life and require a mosaic of habitats in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. With over 6 billion people on Earth, most species are now persisting in habitats that have been directly or indirectly influenced by human activities. Some species have disappeared where their habitats have been completely destroyed, reduced, or rendered unsuitable. Habitat loss and degradation are widely considered by most researchers as the most important causes of amphibian population decline globally (Barinaga 1990; Wake and Morowitz 1991; Alford and Richards 1999). In this chapter, a background on the diverse habitat requirements of amphibians is provided, followed by a discussion of the effects of urbanization, agriculture, livestock grazing, timber production and harvesting, fire and hazardous fuel management, and roads on amphibians and their habitats. Also briefly discussed is the influence on amphibian habitats of natural disturbances, such as extreme weather events and climate change, given the potential for human activities to impact climate in the longer term. For amphibians in general, microhabitats are of greater importance than for other vertebrates. As ectotherms with a skin that is permeable to water and with naked gelatinous eggs, amphibians are physiologically constrained to be active during environmental conditions that provide appropriate body temperatures and adequate water balance (Thorson and Svihla 1943; Brattstrom 1963; Tracy 1976). Hence, individuals require and seek specific microhabitats that maintain their preferred body temperature while at the same time reducing water loss or allowing individuals to re-hydrate. Amphibians also possess relatively few physical attributes that protect them from predators. Although they may avoid predators behaviourally or deter them by skin toxins, amphibians lack defensive shells or hardened cuticles, do not have protective teeth or claws, and most are insufficiently fast to escape predators. Hence, they are relatively dependent on sites that conceal or protect them from predation. Most amphibians also differ significantly from other vertebrates in possessing a complex two-phase life cycle: the pre-metamorphic larval (tadpole) stage and the post-metamorphic juvenile and adult stage (Wilbur 1980, 1984). Most amphibian species have two distinct econes (Heatwole 1989), each with different habitat requirements, the larvae being aquatic and the post-metamorphic animals more terrestrial. The habitats required by the two phases can differ greatly, but both are essential to the survival of a species. However, amphibian diversity is great and exceptions to this general pattern exist. For example, some species have direct development without going through a larval stage and are fully terrestrial, whereas the larvae of other species can reach sexual maturity without going through metamorphosis (i.e., neoteny) and are fully aquatic.

Book chapter↗

USGS2012

Loss and modification of habitat

Book chapter↗

USGS2002

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40–80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60–100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m 2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Oecologia↗

USGS2026

The influence of tree canopy cover data choices on urban ecosystem accounting

Because urban landscapes are heterogeneous, the methods and spatial resolution used to depict the land surface greatly influence the representation of urban features. Land cover products such as tree canopy cover (TCC) are particularly sensitive to the methodology and resolution used in their creation. Differences in TCC mapping have implications on the outcomes of ecosystem service (ES) models, including those underlying natural capital accounting. Here, we quantify the sensitivity of physical rainfall interception and local climate regulation ES models for 189 U.S. cities to TCC inputs from four TCC products: a) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), b) Enhanced NLCD TCC, c) aggregated city-specific composite, and d) global tree canopy height dataset. We find both city-level and aggregate differences in TCC estimates, from a 38% decrease to a 3% increase relative to an aggregated high-resolution product. These differences result in up to 3% overestimations and 27% underestimation of rainfall interception and 2–56% underestimation of local climate regulation ES. City size, population, and greenness in addition to climatic variation drove differences between TCC products, and this variation requires users to carefully consider the choice of input data for any planned analysis. Though high-resolution data can offer greater nuance and accuracy, more limited spatiotemporal availability can hinder their usefulness for long-term monitoring applications such as natural capital accounting. The differences found in this study provide valuable insights for making informed decisions on data inputs for use in urban ecosystem research and for contextualizing model outcomes.

Contiguous United States↗

USGS2007

Coastal systems and low-lying areas

Since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), our understanding of the implications of climate change for coastal systems and low-lying areas (henceforth referred to as ‘coasts’) has increased substantially and six important policy-relevant messages have emerged. Coasts are experiencing the adverse consequences of hazards related to climate and sea level (very high confidence). Coasts are highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as storms, which impose substantial costs on coastal societies [6.2.1, 6.2.2, 6.5.2]. Annually, about 120 million people are exposed to tropical cyclone hazards, which killed 250,000 people from 1980 to 2000 [6.5.2]. Through the 20th century, global rise of sea level contributed to increased coastal inundation, erosion and ecosystem losses, but with considerable local and regional variation due to other factors [6.2.5, 6.4.1]. Late 20th century effects of rising temperature include loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost and associated coastal retreat, and more frequent coral bleaching and mortality [6.2.5]. Coasts will be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, over coming decades due to climate change and sea-level rise (very high confidence). Anticipated climate-related changes include: an accelerated rise in sea level of up to 0.6 m or more by 2100; a further rise in sea surface temperatures by up to 3°C; an intensification of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones; larger extreme waves and storm surges; altered precipitation/run-off; and ocean acidification [6.3.2]. These phenomena will vary considerably at regional and local scales, but the impacts are virtually certain to be overwhelmingly negative [6.4, 6.5.3]. Corals are vulnerable to thermal stress and have low adaptive capacity. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals [Box 6.1, 6.4]. Coastal wetland ecosystems, such as saltmarshes and mangroves, are especially threatened where they are sediment starved or constrained on their landward margin [6.4.1]. Degradation of coastal ecosystems, especially wetlands and coral reefs, has serious implications for the well-being of societies dependent on the coastal ecosystems for goods and services [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. ncreased flooding and the degradation of freshwater, fisheries and other resources could impact hundreds of millions of people, and socio-economic costs on coasts will escalate as a result of climate change [6.4.2, 6.5.3]. The impact of climate change on coasts is exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures (very high confidence). Utilisation of the coast increased dramatically during the 20th century and this trend is virtually certain to continue through the 21st century. Under the SRES scenarios, the coastal population could grow from 1.2 billion people (in 1990) to 1.8 to 5.2 billion people by the 2080s, depending on assumptions about migration [6.3.1]. Increasing numbers of people and assets at risk at the coast are subject to additional stresses due to land-use and hydrological changes in catchments, including dams that reduce sediment supply to the coast [6.3.2]. Populated deltas (especially Asian megadeltas), low-lying coastal urban areas and atolls are key societal hotspots of coastal vulnerability, occurring where the stresses on natural systems coincide with low human adaptive capacity and high exposure [6.4.3]. Regionally, South, South- East and East Asia, Africa and small islands are most vulnerable [6.4.2]. Climate change therefore reinforces the desirability of managing coasts in an integrated manner [6.6.1.3]. Adaptation for the coasts of developing countries will be more challenging than for coasts of developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity (high confidence). While physical exposure can significantly influence vulnerability for both human populations and natural systems, a lack of adaptive capacity is often the most important factor that creates a hotspot of human vulnerability. Adaptive capacity is largely dependent upon development status. Developing nations may have the political or societal will to protect or relocate people who live in low-lying coastal zones, but without the necessary financial and other resources/capacities, their vulnerability is much greater than that of a developed nation in an identical coastal setting. Vulnerability will also vary between developing countries, while developed countries are not insulated from the adverse consequences of extreme events [6.4.3, 6.5.2]. Adaptation costs for vulnerable coasts are much less than the costs of inaction (high confidence). Adaptation costs for climate change are much lower than damage costs without adaptation for most developed coasts, even considering only property losses and human deaths [6.6.2, 6.6.3]. As post-event impacts on coastal businesses, people, housing, public and private social institutions, natural resources, and the environment generally go unrecognised in disaster cost accounting, the full benefits of adaptation are even larger [6.5.2, 6.6.2]. Without adaptation, the high-end sea-level rise scenarios, combined with other climate changes (e.g., increased storm intensity), are as likely as not to render some islands and lowlying areas unviable by 2100, so effective adaptation is urgently required [6.6.3]. The unavoidability of sea-level rise, even in the longer-term, frequently conflicts with present-day human development patterns and trends (high confidence). Sea-level rise has substantial inertia and will continue beyond 2100 for many centuries. Irreversible breakdown of the West Antarctica and/or Greenland ice sheets, if triggered by rising temperatures, would make this long-term rise significantly larger, ultimately questioning the viability of many coastal settlements across the globe. The issue is reinforced by the increasing human use of the coastal zone. Settlement patterns also have substantial inertia, and this issue presents a challenge for long-term coastal spatial planning. Stabilisation of climate could reduce the risks of ice sheet breakdown, and reduce but Chapter 6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas 317 not stop sea-level rise due to thermal expansion [Box 6.6]. Hence, it is now more apparent than it was in the TAR that the most appropriate response to sea-level rise for coastal areas is a combination of adaptation to deal with the inevitable rise, and mitigation to limit the long-term rise to a manageable level [6.6.5, 6.7].

Book chapter↗

USGS2004

Water-quality, biological, and physical-habitat conditions at fixed sites in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, National Water-Quality Assessment Study Unit, October 1998-September 2001

The Cook Inlet Basin study unit of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program comprises 39,325 square miles in south-central Alaska. Data were collected at eight fixed sites to provide baseline information in areas where no development has taken place, urbanization or logging have occurred, or the effects of recreation are increasing. Collection of water-quality, biology, and physical-habitat data began in October 1998 and ended in September 2001 (water years 1999-2001). The climate for the water years in the study may be categorized as slightly cool-wet (1999), slightly warm-wet (2000), and significantly warm-dry (2001). Total precipitation was near normal during the study period, and air temperatures ranged from modestly cool in water year 1999 to near normal in 2000, and to notably warm in 2001. Snowmelt runoff dominates the hydrology of streams in the Cook Inlet Basin. Average annual flows at the fixed sites were approximately the same as the long-term average annual flows, with the exception of those in glacier-fed basins, which had above-average flow in water year 2001. Water temperature of all streams studied in the Cook Inlet Basin remained at 0 oC for about 6 months per year, and average annual water temperatures ranged from 3.3 to 6.2 degrees Celsius. Of the water-quality constituents sampled, all concentrations were less than drinking-water standards and only one constituent, the pesticide carbaryl, exceeded aquatic-life standards. Most of the stream waters of the Cook Inlet Basin were classified as calcium bicarbonate, which reflects the underlying geology. Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin draining areas with glaciers, rough mountainous terrain, and poorly developed soils have low concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon compared with concentrations of these same constituents in streams in lowland or urbanized areas. In streams draining relatively low-lying areas, most of the suspended sediment, nutrients, and dissolved organic carbon are transported in the spring from the melting snowpack. The urbanized stream, Chester Creek, had the highest concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, and sodium, most likely because of the application of de-icing materials during the winter. Several volatile organic compounds and pesticides also were detected in samples from this stream. Aquatic communities in the Cook Inlet Basin are naturally different than similar sites in the contiguous United States because of the unique conditions of the northern latitudes where the Cook Inlet Basin is located, such as extreme diurnal cycles and long periods of ice cover. Blue-green algae was the dominant algae found at all sites although in some years green algae was the most dominant algae. Macroinvertebrate communities consist primarily of Diptera (true flies), Ephemeroptera (mayflies), and Plecoptera (stoneflies). Lowland areas have higher abundance of aquatic communities than glacier-fed basins. However, samples from the urbanized stream, Chester Creek, were dominated by oligochaetes, a class of worms. Most of the functional feeding groups were collector-gatherers. The number of taxa for both algae and macroinvertebrates were highest in water year 2001, which may be due to the relative mild winter of 2000?2001 and the above average air temperatures for this water year. The streams in the Cook Inlet Basin typically are low gradient. Bank substrates consist of silt, clay, or sand, and bed substrate consists of coarse gravel or cobbles. Vegetation is primarily shrubs and woodlands with spruce or cottonwood trees. Canopy angles vary with the size of the stream or river and are relatively low at the smaller streams and high at the larger streams. Suitable fish habitat, such as woody debris, pools, cobble substrate, and overhanging vegetation, is found at most sites. Of the human activities occurring in the fixed site basins ? high recreational use, logging, and urbanizat

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Land change in the Central Corn Belt Plains Ecoregion and hydrologic consequences in developed areas: 1939-2000

This report emphasizes the importance of a multi-disciplinary understanding of how land use and land cover can affect regional hydrology by collaboratively investigating how increases in developed land area may affect stream discharge by evaluating land-cover change from 1939 to 2000, urban housing density data from 1940 to 2010, and changes in annual peak streamflow from water years 1945 to 2009. The results and methods crosscut two mission areas of the U.S. Geological Survey (Climate and Land Use, Water) and can be used to better assess developed land change and hydrologic consequences, which can be used to better assess future management and mitigation strategies.

Illinois;Indiana;Wisconsin↗

USGS2004

Estimating the Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Small Urban Streams in South Carolina, 2001

The magnitude and frequency of floods at 20 streamflowgaging stations on small, unregulated urban streams in or near South Carolina were estimated by fitting the measured wateryear peak flows to a log-Pearson Type-III distribution. The period of record (through September 30, 2001) for the measured water-year peak flows ranged from 11 to 25 years with a mean and median length of 16 years. The drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations ranged from 0.18 to 41 square miles. Based on the flood-frequency estimates from the 20 streamflow-gaging stations (13 in South Carolina; 4 in North Carolina; and 3 in Georgia), generalized least-squares regression was used to develop regional regression equations. These equations can be used to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows for small urban streams in the Piedmont, upper Coastal Plain, and lower Coastal Plain physiographic provinces of South Carolina. The most significant explanatory variables from this analysis were mainchannel length, percent impervious area, and basin development factor. Mean standard errors of prediction for the regression equations ranged from -25 to 33 percent for the 10-year recurrence-interval flows and from -35 to 54 percent for the 100-year recurrence-interval flows. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a Geographic Information System application called StreamStats that makes the process of computing streamflow statistics at ungaged sites faster and more consistent than manual methods. This application was developed in the Massachusetts District and ongoing work is being done in other districts to develop a similar application using streamflow statistics relative to those respective States. Considering the future possibility of implementing StreamStats in South Carolina, an alternative set of regional regression equations was developed using only main channel length and impervious area. This was done because no digital coverages are currently available for basin development factor and, therefore, it could not be included in the StreamStats application. The average mean standard error of prediction for the alternative equations was 2 to 5 percent larger than the standard errors for the equations that contained basin development factor. For the urban streamflow-gaging stations in South Carolina, measured water-year peak flows were compared with those from an earlier urban flood-frequency investigation. The peak flows from the earlier investigation were computed using a rainfall-runoff model. At many of the sites, graphical comparisons indicated that the variance of the measured data was much less than the variance of the simulated data. Several statistical tests were applied to compare the variances and the means of the measured and simulated data for each site. The results indicated that the variances were significantly different for 11 of the 13 South Carolina streamflow-gaging stations. For one streamflow-gaging station, the test for normality, which is one of the assumptions of the data when comparing variances, indicated that neither the measured data nor the simulated data were distributed normally; therefore, the test for differences in the variances was not used for that streamflow-gaging station. Another statistical test was used to test for statistically significant differences in the means of the measured and simulated data. The results indicated that for 5 of the 13 urban streamflowgaging stations in South Carolina there was a statistically significant difference in the means of the two data sets. For comparison purposes and to test the hypothesis that there may have been climatic differences between the period in which the measured peak-flow data were measured and the period for which historic rainfall data were used to compute the simulated peak flows, 16 rural streamflow-gaging stations with long-term records were reviewed using similar techniques as those used for the measured an

South Carolina↗

USGS2007

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2022

Drought and water management in ancient Maya society

Paleoclimate research in the Maya region of Mesoamerica provides compelling evidence of drought during key periods of cultural transition in Maya society. These include the transition from the Preclassic to the Classic, and from Classic to the Postclassic. Previous research emphasized a causal relationship between drought and cultural change, or so-called “collapse” in the Maya region. Recent advances in the range and precision of climate-sensitive proxies and the development of new archives have enabled quantitative reconstructions of past hydroclimate, as well as providing evidence of high impact, short-duration events, such as tropical cyclones. Simultaneously, archaeological research has unearthed widespread evidence of technologies used by the Maya to exert control over water resources in urban, rural, and agricultural settings. Evidence suggests that many of these water features were in use for multiple generations, possibly centuries, and many were constructed during the Terminal Preclassic and Terminal Classic periods. We suggest that, given the availability of new archaeological and paleoclimate records, these data can be combined to identify the full complexity of Maya adaptation to hydroclimate variability to emphasize adaptation and resilience to both water scarcity and over-abundance (e.g., flooding). Such syntheses, which can offer lessons for present-day efforts to grapple with regional climate change, will benefit from additional studies in data-poor zones of the Maya region, as well as public archiving of paleoclimate and archaeological data.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗

USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in South Dakota and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

Peak-flow (flood) frequency analysis is essential to water-resources management applications, including the design of critical infrastructure such as bridges and culverts, and floodplain mapping. Federal guidelines for performing peak-flow flood frequency analyses are presented in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report known as Bulletin 17C. A basic assumption within Bulletin 17C, which documents the guidelines for determining annual peak streamflow frequency, is that, for basins without major hydrologic alterations (for example, regulation, diversion, and urbanization), statistical properties of the distribution of annual peak streamflows are stationary; that is, the mean, variance, and skew are constant through time. Nonstationarity is a statistical property of a peak-flow series such that the long-term (on the order of decades) distributional properties change one or more times either gradually or abruptly through time. Individual nonstationarities may be attributed to one source such as flow regulation, land-use change, or climate but are often the result of a combination of sources, making detection and attribution of nonstationarities challenging. In response to a growing concern regarding nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Departments of Transportation of Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, and Wisconsin; the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation; and the North Dakota Department of Water Resources, assessed the potential nonstationarity in peak streamflows in the north-central United States. This chapter characterizes the effects of natural hydroclimatic shifts and potential climate change on annual peak streamflows in the State of South Dakota. Annual peak and daily streamflow as well as model-simulated gridded climatic data were examined for temporal monotonic trends, change points, and other statistical properties indicative of changing climatic and environmental conditions. Changes in annual peak and daily flows were evaluated among 13, 35, and 81 qualifying U.S. Geological Survey streamgages for the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods through water year 2020 (the period from October 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020) in South Dakota, respectively. No qualifying streamgages were in the 100-year trend period in the State. Statistical tests for autocorrelation (independent and identically distributed assumption), monotonic trends, and change points in the median and scale are analyzed to evaluate potential stationarity violations (nonstationarity) for performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analysis. The trends are reported using a likelihood approach as an alternative to simply reporting significant trends with an arbitrary p -value cutoff point. A distinct east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward monotonic trends and change points, respectively, was detected in 75- and 50-year trend periods, but an inconsistent spatial pattern was detected in the 30-year trend period. Additionally, change points in the median annual peak streamflows were detected in the late 1970s and early 1980s in the western part of the State, but in the east, the change point was more commonly detected in 1992–93. A similar east-west spatial pattern of likely upward and downward trends was detected in the annual peak-flow timing, the day of the year of the annal peak streamflow. In the western part of the State, the annual peak streamflows are arriving earlier, but in the east, the annual peak streamflows are arriving later. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) analysis where, on average, there are two events per year (POT2) and four events per year (POT4) was also used to evaluate changes in the frequency (count) of daily streamflows exceeding the threshold. Similar to detected changes in the annual peak streamflow, an east-west likely upward or downward change corresponding to an increase or decrease, respectively, in the frequency of daily streamflow greater than a POT2 and POT4 threshold was detected. A monthly water-balance model was used to evaluate hydroclimatic variation in annual and seasonal precipitation, snowfall, potential evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage for all qualifying streamgages in the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods. Detected trends in the annual hydroclimatic metrics for the 75- and 50-year trend periods indicate a spatially consistent statewide increase in precipitation, decrease in snowfall, increase in potential evapotranspiration, and increase in soil moisture storage. Furthermore, detected trends in seasonal precipitation in the 75- and 50-year trend periods highlight a pronounced change in precipitation in winter and later into the summer season, especially in the 50-year trend period in the eastern part of the State. Statewide increases in seasonal soil moisture storage were also detected, highlighting year-round increasing flood magnitudes, particularly in the eastern part of the State. Based on the results of these stationarity tests for the qualifying streamgages in South Dakota among the 75-, 50-, and 30-year trend periods, consistent temporal and spatial patterns of nonstationarity were detected among the 75- and 50-year trend periods. Furthermore, when nonstationarity is detected in daily streamflow, increased streamflow and volume (increasing frequency in POT), as well as potentially bridge scour, may have implications on culvert and highway design in the eastern part of South Dakota. Thus, when performing at-site peak-flow flood-frequency analyses in South Dakota, potential nonstationarities and alternative approaches are important considerations.

South Dakota↗

USGS2012

Groundwater quality in the Colorado River basins, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Four groundwater basins along the Colorado River make up one of the study areas being evaluated. The Colorado River study area is approximately 884 square miles (2,290 square kilometers) and includes the Needles, Palo Verde Mesa, Palo Verde Valley, and Yuma groundwater basins (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). The Colorado River study area has an arid climate and is part of the Sonoran Desert. Average annual rainfall is about 3 inches (8 centimeters). Land use in the study area is approximately 47 percent (%) natural (mostly shrubland), 47% agricultural, and 6% urban. The primary crops are pasture and hay. The largest urban area is the city of Blythe (2010 population of 21,000). Groundwater in these basins is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay deposited by the Colorado River or derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in the Colorado River study area are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in the Colorado River basins are completed to depths between 230 and 460 feet (70 to 140 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 130 of 390 feet (39 to 119 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. The main source of recharge to the groundwater systems in the Needles, Palo Verde Mesa, and Palo Verde Valley basins is the Colorado River; in the Yuma basin, the main source of recharge is from subsurface flow from the groundwater basins to the west. Groundwater discharge is primarily to pumping wells, evapotranspiration, and, locally, to the Colorado River.

Arizona, California↗

USGS2012

Groundwater quality in the Mojave area, California

Groundwater provides more than 40 percent of California’s drinking water. To protect this vital resource, the State of California created the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program. The Priority Basin Project of the GAMA Program provides a comprehensive assessment of the State’s groundwater quality and increases public access to groundwater-quality information. Four groundwater basins along the Mojave River make up one of the study areas being evaluated. The Mojave study area is approximately 1,500 square miles (3,885 square kilometers) and includes four contiguous groundwater basins: Upper, Middle, and Lower Mojave River Groundwater Basins, and the El Mirage Valley (California Department of Water Resources, 2003). The Mojave study area has an arid climate, and is part of the Mojave Desert. Average annual rainfall is about 6 inches (15 centimeters). Land use in the study area is approximately 82 percent (%) natural (mostly shrubland), 4% agricultural, and 14% urban. The primary crops are pasture and hay. The largest urban areas are the cities of Victorville, Hesperia, and Apple Valley (2010 populations of 116,000, 90,000 and 69,000, respectively). Groundwater in these basins is used for public and domestic water supply and for irrigation. The main water-bearing units are gravel, sand, silt, and clay derived from surrounding mountains. The primary aquifers in the Mojave study area are defined as those parts of the aquifers corresponding to the perforated intervals of wells listed in the California Department of Public Health database. Public-supply wells in the Mojave study area are completed to depths between 200 and 600 feet (18 to 61 meters), consist of solid casing from the land surface to a depth of 130 to 420 feet (40 to 128 meters), and are screened or perforated below the solid casing. Recharge to the groundwater system is primarily runoff from the mountains to the south, mostly through the Mojave River channel. The primary sources of discharge are pumping wells and evapotranspiration.

California↗

USGS2006

Preliminary Surficial Geologic Map of the Mesquite Lake 30' X 60' Quadrangle, California and Nevada

The Quaternary surficial geologic map of the Mesquite Lake, California-Nevada 30'X60' quadrangle depicts deposit age and geomorphic processes of erosion and deposition, as identified by a composite of remote sensing investigations, laboratory analyses, and field work, in the arid to semi-arid Mojave Desert area, straddling the California-Nevada border. Mapping was motivated by the need to address pressing scientific and social issues such as understanding and predicting the effects of climate and associated hydrologic changes, human impacts on landscapes, ecosystem function, and natural hazards at a regional scale. As the map area lies just to the south of Las Vegas, Nevada, a rapidly expanding urban center, land use pressures and the need for additional construction materials are forecasted for the region. The map contains information on the temporal and spatial patterns of surface processes and hazards that can be used to model specific landscape applications. Key features of the geologic map include: (1) spatially extensive Holocene alluvial deposits that compose the bulk of Quaternary units (~25%), (2) remote sensing and field studies that identified fault scarps or queried faults in the Kingston Wash area, Shadow Mountains, southern Pahrump Valley, Bird Spring Range, Lucy Gray Mountains and Piute Valley, (3) a lineament indicative of potential fault offset is located in Mesquite Valley, (4) active eolian dunes and sand ramps located on the east side of Mesquite, Ivanpah, and Hidden Valleys adjacent to playas, (4) groundwater discharge deposits in southern Pahrump Valley, Spring Mountains, and Lucy Gray Mountains and (5) debris-flow deposits spanning almost the entire Quaternary period in age.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment: pre-assessment report

The purpose of the Pre-Assessment Report for the Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to document the selection process for and final list of Conservation Elements, Change Agents, and Management Questions developed during Phase I. The overall goal of the REAs being conducted for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change, and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks. The REA also may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing the cumulative effects of a variety of land uses. There are several components of the REAs. Management Questions, developed by the BLM and partners for the ecoregion, identify the information needed for addressing land-management responsibilities. Conservation Elements represent regionally significant terrestrial and aquatic species and communities that are to be conserved and (or) restored. For each Conservation Element, key ecological attributes will be evaluated to determine the status of each species and community. The REA also will evaluate major drivers of ecosystem change, or Change Agents, currently affecting or likely to affect the status of Conservation Elements in the future. The relationships between Change Agents and key ecological attributes will be summarized using conceptual models. The REA process is a two-phase process. Phase I (pre-assessment) includes developing and finalizing the lists of priority Management Questions, Conservation Elements, and Change Agents, culminating in the REA Pre-Assessment Report. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the REA process. Chapter 2 describes the biophysical and anthropogenic features of the Southern Great Plains, and Chapter 3 explains the process used to identify Conservation Elements, Change Agents and Management Questionss. The remaining chapters each feature one of 19 Conservation Elements—6 ecological communities and 13 species (including 2 species assemblages)—to be addressed in Phase II. For each Conservation Element, we will address the four primary Change Agents—development, fire, invasive species, and climate change—required for the REA. In addition, we will evaluate insect pests and disease for particular Conservation Elements. Development includes effects related to energy and infrastructure, agricultural activities, and other human activities, including urbanization and recreation. An overview on the ecology and management issues for each Conservation Element is provided, including distribution and ecology, landscape structure and dynamics, and associated species of management concern affiliated with each Conservation Element. For each Conservation Element, effects of the Change Agents are described. An overview of potential key ecological attributes and potential Change Agents are summarized by conceptual models and tables. The tables provide an organizational framework and background information for evaluating the key ecological attributes and Change Agents in Phase II.

Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗