Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Risk Analysis”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States

Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2018

Assessing the risk of dreissenid mussel invasion in Texas based on lake physical characteristics and potential for downstream dispersal

ebra mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha ) and quagga mussels ( Dreissena bugensis ) were likely introduced from Ponto-Caspian Eurasia to the Laurentian Great Lakes inadvertently via ballast water release in the 1980s and have since spread across the US, including Texas. Their spread into the state, including reservoirs in both Brazos River and Colorado River basins, has resulted in a need to delimit suitable dreissenid habitat and dispersal potential in Texas. The objective of our research was to assess invasion risk in Texas by 1) predicting distribution of suitable habitat of zebra and quagga mussels using Maxent models; 2) refining lake-specific predictions for present zebra mussels via collection of physicochemical data; and 3) assessing the potential for downstream spread of zebra mussels by applying environmental DNA (eDNA) methods in the Leon and Lampasas Rivers downstream from the invaded Lakes Belton and Stillhouse Hollow, respectively. Maxent models did not predict the occurrence of suitable habitat for quagga mussels within Texas. However, our models accurately identified global zebra mussel habitat (AUC = 0.919), and Bioclim layers representing temperature and precipitation data both strongly influenced predictions. Predicted “hotspots” of suitable zebra mussel habitat in Texas occurred along the Red and Sabine Rivers of north and east Texas, as well as patches of suitable habitat in central Texas between the Colorado and Brazos Rivers and extending inland along the Gulf Coast. Most of the Texas panhandle, west Texas extending toward El Paso, and the Rio Grande valley were predicted to provide poor habitat suitability. Collection of physicochemical data (dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and temperature on-site as well as laboratory analysis for Ca, N, and P) from zebra mussel invaded lakes and a subset of identified high-risk lakes of North and Central Texas, did not aid predictions. Visual inspection of biplots of the first three components of a principle component analysis, which together accounted for ~80% of data variability, did not reveal separation between invaded and uninvaded lakes, and logistic regression analysis also failed to identify predictive relationships between measured variables and invasion status. Using eDNA analysis, we detected the presence of zebra mussel eDNA at 11 of 12 sites and up to at least 90.7 river km downstream from a pair of infested reservoirs. Rate of positive detection among water samples at each site ranged from 1/5 to 5/5, and within positive water samples, rate of detection among technical replicates ranged from 1/8 to 8/8, suggesting considerable heterogeneity in the zebra mussel eDNA signal in both rivers. Furthermore, no clear spatial pattern in detection rate occurred. Thus, a monitoring strategy that combines traditional sampling (e.g. settlement substrate samplers and microscopy) at sites immediately below a dam, and transitioning to more sensitive eDNA analysis at distances further from the dam may represent the most successful strategy for detection of dreissenid mussel downstream dispersal. Overall, we have demonstrated that while quagga mussels do not appear to represent an invasive threat in Texas, suitable habitat for continuing zebra mussel invasion exists within Texas, and stream and river connections may contribute to their spread. The threat of continued expansion of this poster-child for negative invasive species impacts warrants further prevention efforts, management, and research.

continental United States↗
USGS2023

Contaminant risks in consuming fish from the Area of Concern in the Upper Niagara River

The lack of contemporary data on contaminants in resident fish prevents an analysis of temporal trends in contaminant concentrations and the present-day status of the “Restrictions on Fish and Wildlife Consumption” Beneficial Use Impairment (BUI) in the Niagara River Area of Concern (AOC). During 2018, concentrations of 260 contaminants in four groups of fish species from five areas in or near the upper Niagara River AOC were analyzed to determine the potential risks from fish consumption, responses to remediation in an adjacent AOC, and whether additional remedial actions were warranted in this AOC. The concentrations of most contaminants were generally undetectable or did not exceed established Federal, State, or European Union fish-consumption limits. Several contaminants without State or Federal limits exceeded European Union fish-consumption guidelines in some species and areas. High PCB residues in many bullhead from Scajaquada Creek, some bass from Hoyt Lake, and most common carp from all areas surpassed certain New York and Federal fish-consumption limits and indicate PCBs continue to restrict fish consumption at most study areas. High concentrations of several contaminants in resident fish, especially dioxins and furans in carp, from Cayuga Creek indicate that additional scrutiny of consumption advisories is warranted in this area. Because this study provides a snapshot in time of fish-contaminant data from five areas, additional data from other areas and times, and more detailed information on present-day pollutant sources may be needed before determining the status of the fish-consumption BUI in this AOC.

New York↗
USGS2023

Predicting methane emissions and developing reduction strategies for a Central Appalachian Basin, USA, longwall mine through analysis and modeling of geology and degasification system performance

Coal mine methane is a safety concern in active mines due to explosion risk and an environmental concern due to the greenhouse gas (GHG) properties of methane emissions to the atmosphere. Depending on the mine design and operation, structural and stratigraphic characteristics of the geology, and the properties of coal beds affected by mining, a significant amount of methane can be released during coal extraction. These emissions may be low and uniform, but they also can be high and abrupt, if not captured by using pre- and post-mining methods of degasification or not controlled by ventilation during mining. Therefore, emissions should be monitored and predicted accurately for underground safety and GHG reduction. Ventilation and degasification systems should be designed accordingly by taking into account the mine geological properties and the degasification system's performance. This paper presents a comprehensive study to predict emissions and proposes alternatives to reduce emissions in a longwall mine extracting metallurgical coal from the Pocahontas No. 3 coal bed in Virginia (Central Appalachian Basin), USA. The work focused on mining activity in four adjacent panels through analysis and modeling of geology and evaluation of the performance of the methane control system. Results showed that the mine geology contained a significant amount of gas within and around the panel areas, which was controlled by utilizing different degasification methods besides ventilation during mining. The study showed that after pre-mining degasification using fractured vertical wells and in-seam horizontal wells, each panel potentially contained ∼19 MMscf and ∼ 2 MMscf of gas remaining to be handled by the gob gas ventholes (GGVs) and the ventilation, respectively, per acre of mining. It was shown that extending the pre-mining degasification duration of vertical wells by as much as 4 years or drilling more horizontal wells with closer spacing could significantly reduce ventilation and gob emissions during the mining of coal.

Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2020

Foreward: Geology Field Trips in and around the U.S. Capital

The first annual meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA) was held in 1888 in Ithaca, New York (Fairchild, 1932), but official Sections of GSA formed much later. During the spring of 1949, a symposium in Knoxville, Tennessee, on mineral resources of the southeastern United States became the catalyst for the creation of the Southeastern Section of the Geological Society of America (King, 1964), and the first annual meeting of the Southeastern Section was held in 1952 in Roanoke, Virginia (Wilson, 1954). The Northeastern Section formed much later, and its first annual meeting was held in 1966 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Socolow, 1968). At all of these section meetings, field trips have been important venues for geologists and especially students to gather together, examine rocks in the field, and discuss ideas. These field trips have been especially important at combined section meetings because they provide settings for geologists who are experienced in one geographic region to examine and compare the geology of other regions. The first combined meeting of the Southeastern and Northeastern sections occurred in 1976 in Arlington, Virginia. Since then, the Southeastern and Northeastern sections have met together on numerous occasions, including 1982 in Washington, DC; 1991 in Baltimore, Maryland; 2004 in Tysons Corner, Virginia; and 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. Since the first combined section meeting in 1976, there has been a gradual increase in the role of technology in geology field studies. In fact, during the past several decades there has been an increase in emphasis in our society on the instrumental component of science, the goal of which is operational techniques to do or control things, and a corresponding decrease in emphasis on the natural philosophy component of science, the goal of which is a greater understanding of the natural world (Dear, 2006). The modern education acronym STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), for example, is often used as a catch-all term that implies that science and technology are relatively synonymous, and implies that greater technology leads automatically to greater understanding of the natural world. This assumption, however, is not always valid (Dear, 2006), and technology should not be promoted as a substitute for field experiences. Technology can be a tool that leads to greater understanding of the natural world, but not all Science uses technology as a means of providing greater understanding. The benefits of new technologies include: (1) data of greater resolution; and (2) greater efficiency of capturing, storing, and visualizing data. The risks of new technologies include: (1) an overabundance of data, some of which may be of little value; (2) less time available for analysis of data, if geologists become occupied primarily with capturing and storing data; and (3) errors that arise from complacency and the perception that field-checking may not be necessary. In other words, there is a risk that a glut of data and vast amounts of time devoted to the capturing and storing of data may result in a reduced interest and (or) willingness to field-check data. In the spirit of the early GSA section meetings, we feel that there are still enormous advantages to conducting geology field trips in conjunction with traditional meeting presentations and posters. In 2020, with this current combined Southeastern and Northeastern section meeting in Reston, Virginia, we have assembled eight different field trips that cover a wide range of territory in and around the Nation’s capital. These field trip localities include the immediate vicinity of Washington, DC, as well as various locations in nearby areas of Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia. The physiographic provinces include Mesozoic Rift Basins, the Piedmont, the Blue Ridge, the Valley and Ridge, and the Allegheny Plateau of the Appalachian Basin. The field trip sites exhibit a wide range of igneous, metamorphic, and sedimentary rocks, as well as rocks with a wide range of geologic ages from the Mesoproterozoic to the Holocene. We hope that this guidebook provides new motivation for geologists to examine rocks in the field, to discuss ideas with colleagues in the field, and to avoid becoming complacent. The editors of this volume would like to thank the authors of the different field trip guides, the field trip leaders, and all of the reviewers who made suggestions for improving the field trip manuscripts. The editors would also like to thank Elle Derwent of GSA for her logistical help and guidance regarding the field trips, and April Leo and the staff of the GSA Publications Department for seeing this book through to publication.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2017

Shifting brucellosis risk in livestock coincides with spreading seroprevalence in elk

Tracking and preventing the spillover of disease from wildlife to livestock can be difficult when rare outbreaks occur across large landscapes. In these cases, broad scale ecological studies could help identify risk factors and patterns of risk to inform management and reduce incidence of disease. Between 2002 and 2014, 21 livestock herds in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) were affected by brucellosis, a bacterial disease caused by Brucella abortus , while no affected herds were detected between 1990 and 2001. Using a Bayesian analysis, we examined several ecological covariates that may be associated with affected livestock herds across the region. We showed that livestock risk has been increasing over time and expanding outward from the historical nexus of brucellosis in wild elk on Wyoming’s feeding grounds where elk are supplementally fed during the winter. Although elk were the presumed source of cattle infections, occurrences of affected livestock herds were only weakly associated with the density of seropositive elk across the GYA. However, the shift in livestock risk did coincide with recent increases in brucellosis seroprevalence in unfed elk populations. As increasing brucellosis in unfed elk likely stemmed from high levels of the disease in fed elk, disease-related costs of feeding elk have probably been incurred across the entire GYA, rather than solely around the feeding grounds. Our results suggest that focused disease mitigation in areas where seroprevalence in unfed elk is high could reduce the spillover of brucellosis to livestock. We also highlight the need to better understand the epidemiology of spillover events with detailed histories of disease testing, calving, and movement of infected livestock. Finally, we recommend using case-control studies to investigate local factors important to livestock risk.

Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2023

Bayesian hierarchical modeling for probabilistic estimation of tsunami amplitude from far-field earthquake sources

Evaluation of tsunami disaster risk for a coastal region requires reliable estimation of tsunami hazard, for example, wave amplitude close to the shore. Observed tsunami data are scarce and have poor spatial coverage, and for this reason probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) traditionally relies on numerical simulation of “synthetic” tsunami generation and propagation toward the coast. Such an approach has been extensively studied in the past and it is widely recognized as an important disaster-risk mitigation tool. PTHA can not only provide less uncertain and spatially coherent hazard estimates in comparison with classical empirical data analysis which is restricted at the tide gauge stations, but also local inundation information. In this paper, we explore a purely statistical alternative to traditional PTHA for evaluation of tsunami amplitude hazard. Here, we use tide gauge measurements of tsunami amplitude along the western United States, specifically California and Oregon, and develop a spatial Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) to assess tsunami hazard from far-field earthquake sources at various recurrence intervals. The configuration of our model incorporates latent Gaussian fields that utilize information on the distance between tide gauges as well as on the continental shelf width, that is, a covariate linked to potential dissipative effects on wave energy as the tsunami travels over shallow water. Through our BHM, we produce spatially continuous probabilistic maps of far-field tsunami hazard which can aid comprehensive tsunami disaster risk reduction and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2017

When perception reflects reality: Non-native grass invasion alters small mammal risk landscapes and survival

Modification of habitat structure due to invasive plants can alter the risk landscape for wildlife by, for example, changing the quality or availability of refuge habitat. Whether perceived risk corresponds with actual fitness outcomes, however, remains an important open question. We simultaneously measured how habitat changes due to a common invasive grass (cheatgrass, Bromus tectorum ) affected the perceived risk, habitat selection, and apparent survival of a small mammal, enabling us to assess how well perceived risk influenced important behaviors and reflected actual risk. We measured perceived risk by nocturnal rodents using a giving-up density foraging experiment with paired shrub (safe) and open (risky) foraging trays in cheatgrass and native habitats. We also evaluated microhabitat selection across a cheatgrass gradient as an additional assay of perceived risk and behavioral responses for deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ) at two spatial scales of habitat availability. Finally, we used mark-recapture analysis to quantify deer mouse apparent survival across a cheatgrass gradient while accounting for detection probability and other habitat features. In the foraging experiment, shrubs were more important as protective cover in cheatgrass-dominated habitats, suggesting that cheatgrass increased perceived predation risk. Additionally, deer mice avoided cheatgrass and selected shrubs, and marginally avoided native grass, at two spatial scales. Deer mouse apparent survival varied with a cheatgrass–shrub interaction, corresponding with our foraging experiment results, and providing a rare example of a native plant mediating the effects of an invasive plant on wildlife. By synthesizing the results of three individual lines of evidence (foraging behavior, habitat selection, and apparent survival), we provide a rare example of linkage between behavioral responses of animals indicative of perceived predation risk and actual fitness outcomes. Moreover, our results suggest that exotic grass invasions can influence wildlife populations by altering risk landscapes and survival.

Wyoming↗
USGS2011

Comparison of main-shock and aftershock fragility curves developed for New Zealand and US buildings

Seismic risk assessment involves the development of fragility functions to express the relationship between ground motion intensity and damage potential. In evaluating the risk associated with the building inventory in a region, it is essential to capture 'actual' characteristics of the buildings and group them so that 'generic building types' can be generated for further analysis of their damage potential. Variations in building characteristics across regions/countries largely influence the resulting fragility functions, such that building models are unsuitable to be adopted for risk assessment in any other region where a different set of building is present. In this paper, for a given building type (represented in terms of height and structural system), typical New Zealand and US building models are considered to illustrate the differences in structural model parameters and their effects on resulting fragility functions for a set of main-shocks and aftershocks. From this study, the general conclusion is that the methodology and assumptions used to derive basic capacity curve parameters have a considerable influence on fragility curves.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2014

Grass carp in the Great Lakes region: establishment potential, expert perceptions, and re-evaluation of experimental evidence of ecological impact

Intentional introductions of nonindigenous fishes are increasing globally. While benefits of these introductions are easily quantified, assessments to understand the negative impacts to ecosystems are often difficult, incomplete, or absent. Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) was originally introduced to the United States as a biocontrol agent, and recent observations of wild, diploid individuals in the Great Lakes basin have spurred interest in re-evaluating its ecological risk. Here, we evaluate the ecological impact of grass carp using expert opinion and a suite of the most up-to-date analytical tools and data (ploidy assessment, eDNA surveillance, species distribution models (SDMs), and meta-analysis). The perceived ecological impact of grass carp by fisheries experts was variable, ranging from unknown to very high. Wild-caught triploid and diploid individuals occurred in multiple Great Lakes waterways, and eDNA surveillance suggests that grass carp are abundant in a major tributary of Lake Michigan. SDMs predicted suitable grass carp climate occurs in all Great Lakes. Meta-analysis showed that grass carp introductions impact both water quality and biota. Novel findings based on updated ecological impact assessment tools indicate that iterative risk assessment of introduced fishes may be warranted.

Great Lakes Basin↗
USGS2019

Assessing morphologic controls on atoll island alongshore sediment transport gradients due to future sea-level rise

Atoll islands’ alongshore sediment transport gradients depend on how island and reef morphology affect incident wave energy. It is unclear, though, how potential atoll morphologic configurations influence shoreline erosion and/or accretion patterns, and how these relationships will respond to future sea-level rise (SLR). Schematic atoll models with varying morphologies were used to evaluate the relative control of individual morphological parameters on alongshore transport gradients. Incident wave transformations were simulated using a physics-based numerical model and alongshore erosion and accretion was calculated using empirical formulae. The magnitude of the transport gradients increased with SLR: initial erosion or accretion patterns intensified. Modeled morphologic parameters that significantly influenced alongshore transport were the atoll diameter, reef flat width, reef flat depth, and island width. Modeled atolls with comparably small diameters, narrow and deep reef flats with narrow islands displayed greater magnitudes of erosion and/or accretion, especially with SLR. Windward island shorelines are projected to accrete toward the island’s longitudinal ends and lagoon due to SLR, whereas leeward islands erode along lagoon shorelines and extend toward the island ends. Oblique island, oriented parallel to the incident deepwater wave direction, shorelines are forecast to build out leeward along the reef rim and toward the lagoon while eroding along regions exposed to direct wave attack. These findings make it possible to evaluate the relative risk of alongshore erosion/accretion on atolls due to SLR in a rapid, first-order analysis.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2006

Wetland environmental conditions associated with the risk of avian cholera outbreaks and the abundance of Pasteurella multocida

Avian cholera is a significant infectious disease affecting waterfowl across North America and occurs worldwide among various avian species. Despite the importance of this disease, little is known about the factors that cause avian cholera outbreaks and what management strategies might be used to reduce disease mortality. Previous studies indicated that wetland water conditions may affect survival and transmission of Pasteurella multocida, the agent that causes avian cholera. These studies hypothesized that water conditions affect the likelihood that avian cholera outbreaks will occur in specific wetlands. To test these predictions, we collected data from avian cholera outbreak and non-outbreak (control) wetlands throughout North America (wintera??spring 1995a??1996 to 1998a??1999) to evaluate whether water conditions were associated with outbreaks. Conditional logistic regression analysis on paired outbreak and non-outbreak wetlands indicated no significant association between water conditions and the risk of avian cholera outbreaks. For wetlands where avian cholera outbreaks occurred, linear regression showed that increased eutrophic nutrient concentrations (Potassium [K], nitrate [NO3], phosphorus [P], and phosphate [PO3]) were positively related to the abundance of P. multocida recovered from water and sediment samples. Wetland protein concentration and an El Ni??o event were also associated with P. multocida abundance. Our results indicate that wetland water conditions are not strongly associated with the risk of avian cholera outbreaks; however, some variables may play a role in the abundance of P. multocida bacteria and might be important in reducing the severity of avian cholera outbreaks.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2024

Incorporating life history diversity in an integrated population model to inform viability analysis

Life history diversity can significantly affect population dynamics and effects of management actions. For instance, variation in individual responses to environmental variability can reduce extirpation risk to populations, as the portfolio effect dampens temporal variability in abundance. Moreover, differences in habitat use may cause individuals to respond differently to habitat management and climate variability. To explore the role of life history diversity in population trajectories, population models need to incorporate within-population variation. Integrated population modeling (IPM) is a population modeling approach that offers several advantages for sharing information and propagating uncertainty across datasets. In this study, we developed an IPM for an endangered population of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Wenatchee River, Washington, USA, that accounts for diversity in juvenile life histories, spawning location, and return age. Our analysis revealed that diversity in the age of juvenile emigration from natal streams had a portfolio effect, resulting in a 20% reduction in year-to-year variability in adult abundance in population projections. Our population viability analysis suggests that management interventions may be necessary to meet recovery goals, and our model should be useful for simulating the outcomes of proposed actions.

Washington↗
USGS2018

Predicting spatial factors associated with cattle depredations by the Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi) with recommendations for depredation risk modeling

Aim Predation on livestock is one of the primary concerns for Mexican wolf ( Canis lupus baileyi ) recovery because it causes economic losses and negative attitudes toward wolves. Our objectives were to develop a spatial risk model of cattle depredation by Mexican wolves in the USA portion of their recovery area to help reduce the potential for future depredations. Location Arizona and New Mexico, USA. Methods We used a presence-only maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) to develop a risk model based on confirmed depredation incidents on public lands . In addition to landscape and human variables, we developed a model for annual livestock density using linear regression analysis of Animal Unit Month (AUM), and models for abundance of elk ( Cervus canadensis ), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginiana ) using Maxent, to include them as biotic variables in the risk model. We followed current recommendations for controlling model complexity and other sources of bias. Results The primary factors associated with increased risk of depredation by Mexican wolf were higher canopy cover variation and higher relative abundance of elk. Additional factors with increased risk but smaller effect were gentle and open terrain, and greater distances from roads and developed areas. Main conclusions The risk map revealed areas with relatively high potential for cattle depredations that can inform future expansion of Mexican wolf distribution (e.g., by avoiding hotspots) and prioritize areas for depredation risk mitigation including the implementation of active non-lethal methods in depredation hotspots. We suggest that livestock be better protected in or moved from potential hotspots, especially during periods when they are vulnerable to depredation (e.g. calving season). Our approach to create natural prey and livestock abundance variables can facilitate the process of spatial risk modeling when limitations in availability of abundance data are a challenge, especially in large-scale studies.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2006

Risk of Myxobolus cerebralis infection to rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA

Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite that causes salmonid whirling disease, has had detrimental effects on several salmonid populations in the Intermountain West, including the rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA. The goal of this study was to examine relationships among characteristics of the environment, Tubifex tubifex (the alternate host) populations, and rainbow trout whirling disease risk in the Madison River. Environmental characteristics were measured in side channels of the Madison River, and differences were described with a principal components analysis. The density of T. tubifex, the prevalence of infection in T. tubifex, and the density of infected T. tubifex were determined for the side channels using benthic core samples and examination of live tubificids for infection. The site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk in the side channels was determined using in situ exposures of sentinel rainbow trout. Regression analyses were used to determine correlations among these characteristics. Side channels differed in site-specific contribution to rainbow trout whirling disease risk, which was positively correlated to the density of infected T. tubifex. Side channels with fine sediments and lower water temperatures made greater site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk and had higher densities of infected T. tubifex than side channels with coarser sediments and higher temperatures. The ability to characterize areas of high whirling disease risk is essential for improving our understanding of the dynamics of M. cerebralis such that appropriate management strategies can be implemented. In addition, this study provides a model of how the disease ecology of complex aquatic parasites can be examined when the influential processes operate on different spatial scales. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Montana↗
USGS2019

Stratigraphic analysis of Corte Madera Creek flood control channel deposits

Sedimentation in a channel can reduce flood conveyance capability and potentially place nearby property and life at risk from flooding. In 1998, Marin County Public Works dredged the concrete-lined segment of Corte Madera Creek, which drains a hilly and largely urbanized watershed that terminates in San Francisco Bay, California. From then through 2015, approximately 4,100 cubic meters of sand and gravel infilled the concrete-lined segment. Determining when and under what conditions this material was deposited informs dredging operations for the Corte Madera Creek Flood Control Project and increases understanding of sediment delivery timing and mechanisms from this and other San Francisco Bay tributaries. Two hypothesized scenarios were investigated: (1) complete flushing during high flows and re-deposition of channel fill afterward and (2) more steady, gradual channel infilling. Stratigraphic analysis of eight sediment cores collected from the flood-control channel deposits in August 2017 was used to identify the most likely scenario. In addition, sediment elevation profiles, grain-size data, and a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model were used to assess the potential for longitudinal-channel scour and deposition following the wet winter of water year 2017 in the intertidal reach of the concrete channel in Corte Madera Creek. Results indicated the channel is undergoing gradual infilling. Storm flows of water year 2017 did not completely scour the concrete channel fill. Sediment cores, stratigraphic analysis, and sediment elevation profiles indicated 0.23 meter of scour at the downstream end of the concrete-lined section and that roughly 0.5 meter of channel fill remained in the channel. The hydrodynamic model demonstrated that sediment deposition in the concrete channel is expected to start downstream from the point where the channel bed reaches mean lower low-water level. High flows can carry most of the sediment through this segment of channel, depositing the bed-material load downstream from the transition to a wide channel, where velocity and bed shear stress decrease abruptly. Although the storm flows of 2017 did not completely scour the channel fill, subsequent material deposited in the channel could be transported downstream from the concrete channel if the sediment elevation profile is in equilibrium with present (2019) mean sea level. A calibrated, coupled hydrodynamic-sediment transport model could be used to test the present equilibrium between sediment elevation profiles and mean sea level, such that additional sediment build-up in the concrete channel is remobilized during subsequent wet-season flows and deposited downstream from the concrete-lined segment.

California↗
USGS2015

A case study demonstrating analysis of stormflows, concentrations, and loads of nutrients in highway runoff and swale discharge with the Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM)

Decisionmakers need information about the quality and quantity of stormwater runoff, the risk for adverse effects of runoff on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of mitigation measures to reduce these risks. The Stochastic Empirical Loading and Dilution Model (SELDM) uses Monte Carlo methods to generate stormflows, concentrations, and loads from a highway site and an upstream basin to provide needed risk-based information. SELDM was designed to help inform water-management decisions for streams and lakes receiving runoff from a highway or other land-use site. The purpose of this paper is to provide a brief description of SELDM and a hypothetical case study demonstrating the type of risk-based information that SELDM can provide. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were selected as example constituents because nutrients are a common concern throughout the Nation and data for receiving waters, highway runoff, and the performance of best management practices (BMPs) are readily available for these constituents. The case study is hypothetical, but was formulated by using actual data from selected monitoring sites in New England. Data representing streamflow and water-quality were collected at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage 01208950 Sasco Brook near Southport, CT, which has a drainage area of 7.38 square miles. In this hypothetical case study a 4-lane highway would replace the current 2-lane road and would have a contributing area of 2.2 acres between the topographic basin divides. Concentrations of TN and TP in highway runoff were simulated with data from USGS highway-runoff monitoring station 423027071291301 along State Route 2 in Littleton Massachusetts. Results of a highway-runoff analysis are shown in relation to three hypothetical discharge criteria for TN and two hypothetical discharge criteria for TP. The risks for exceeding TN discharge criteria of 3, 5, and 8 mg/L for highway runoff are 7.4, 0.83, and 0.13 percent of 1,721 runoff events that may occur during a stochastic 30-year simulation. If a grassy swale is used to treat the runoff, the risks for TN exceedances are reduced to 3.2, 0.33 and 0.03 percent, respectively. The risks for exceeding TP discharge criteria of 0.1 and 0.5 mg/L for highway runoff are 49 and 1.2 percent, respectively. If a grassy swale is used to treat the runoff, the risks for TP exceedances are 57 and 0.8 percent, respectively. The risks for the 0.1 mg/L criterion increase because swales can be a source of TP if pavement concentrations are low. The risks for the 0.5 mg/L criterion decrease because the swale is effective for reducing high TP concentrations. Although the results are mixed for storm-event concentrations, the grassy swale effectively reduces annual loads. Annual loads from the swale are, on average, about 49 percent of highway loads for TN and 62 percent of highway loads of TP because the swale reduces high runoff concentrations and stormflow volumes. Analysis of upstream and downstream concentrations indicates that runoff from the site of interest does not have a substantial effect on instream stormflow concentrations in this example simulation.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Transforming growth factor-β1 expression in endangered age-0 shortnose suckers ( Chasmistes brevirostris ) from Upper Klamath Lake, OR relative to histopathology, meristic, spatial, and temporal data

During July – September of 2008, 2009, and 2010 endangered age-0 juvenile shortnose suckers were sampled from Upper Klamath Lake, OR in a health evaluation that included the measurement of transforming growth factor – beta (TGF-β) expression in spleen in combination with a histopathology assessment. This analysis was performed to determine if the expression of this immuno-regulator could be used as a component of a larger health evaluation intended to identify potential risk-factors that may help to explain why very few of these fish survive to age-1. Potential associations between TGF-β1 expression, histopathological findings, meristic data as well as temporal and spatial data were evaluated using analysis-of-variance. In this analysis, the absence or presence of opercula deformity and hepatic cell necrosis were identified as significant factors in accounting for the variance in TGF-β1 expression observed in age-0 shortnose suckers (n = 122, squared multiple R = 0.989). Location of sample collection and the absence or presence of anchor worms ( Lernaea spp.) were identified as significant cofactors. The actual mechanisms involved with these relationships have yet to be determined. The strength, however, of our findings support the concept of using TGF-β1 expression as part of a broader fish health assessment and suggests the potential for using additional immunologic measures in future studies. Specifically, our results indicate that the measure of TGF-β1 expression in age-0 shortnose sucker health assessments can facilitate the process of identifying disease risks that are associated with the documented lack of recruitment into the adult population.

Oregon↗