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USGS2013

Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected locales in southern California. Importantly, section 6 provides a comparison of the effect of including horizontal displacements at the source described in section 1 and differences in bottom friction on wave heights and inundation in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Modeling described in section 7 (Lynett and Son) uses a higher order physical model to determine variations of currents during the tsunami and complex flow structures such as jets and eddies. Section 7 also uses sediment transport models to estimate scour and deposition of sediment in ports and harbors—a significant effect that was observed in southern California following the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Together, all of the sections in this report form the basis for damage, impact, and emergency preparedness aspects of the SAFRR tsunami scenario. Three sections of this report independently calculate wave height and inundation results using the source specified by Kirby and others (2013). Refer to figure 29 in section 3, figure 52 in section 4, and figure 62 in section 6. All of these results are relative to a mean high water (MHW) vertical datum. Slight differences in the results are observed in East Basin of the Port of Los Angeles, Alamitos Bay, and the Seal Beach National Wildlife Refuge. However, given that these three modeling efforts involved different implementations of the source, different numerical wave propagation and runup models, and slight differences in the digital elevation models (DEMs), the similarity among the results is remarkable.

California↗

USGS2012

Modeling tidal exchange and dispersion in Boston Harbor

Tidal dispersion and the horizontal exchange of water between Boston Harbor and the surrounding ocean are examined with a high-resolution (200 m) depth-averaged numerical model. The strongly varying bathymetry and coastline geometry of the harbor generate complex spatial patterns in the modeled tidal currents which are verified by shipboard acoustic Doppler surveys. Lagrangian exchange experiments demonstrate that tidal currents rapidly exchange and mix material near the inlets of the harbor due to asymmetry in the ebb/flood response. This tidal mixing zone extends roughly a tidal excursion from the inlets and plays an important role in the overall flushing of the harbor. Because the tides can only efficiently mix material in this limited region, however, harbor flushing must be considered a two step process: rapid exchange in the tidal mixing zone, followed by flushing of the tidal mixing zone by nontidal residual currents. Estimates of embayment flushing based on tidal calculations alone therefore can significantly overestimate the flushing time that would be expected under typical environmental conditions. Particle-release simulations from point sources also demonstrate that while the tides efficiently exchange material in the vicinity of the inlets, the exact nature of dispersion from point sources is extremely sensitive to the timing and location of the release, and the distribution of particles is streaky and patchlike. This suggests that high-resolution modeling of dispersion from point sources in these regions must be performed explicitly and cannot be parameterized as a plume with Gaussian-spreading in a larger scale flow field.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2013

Rupture history of the 2011 M 9 Tohoku Japan earthquake determined from strong‐motion and high‐rate GPS recordings: Subevents radiating energy in different frequency bands

Strong‐motion records from KiK‐net and K‐NET, along with 1 sample/s Global Positioning System (GPS) records from GEONET, were analyzed to determine the location, timing, and slip of subevents of the M 9 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Timing of arrivals on stations along the coast shows that the first subevent was located closer to the coast than subevent (2), which produced the largest slip. A waveform inversion of data from 0 to 0.2 Hz indicates that the first subevent primarily ruptured down‐dip and north of the hypocenter and had an M of 8.5. The areas of this subevent that generated the low (<0.2 Hz) and high (>0.2 Hz) frequency energy are located in the same vicinity. The inversion result for the second subevent ( M 9.0) has large slip on the shallow part of the fault with peak slip of about 65 m above about 25 km depth. This slip generated the tsunami. The preferred inversion has initiation of subevent 2 on the shallow portion of the fault so that rupture proceeded down‐dip and mainly to the south. Subevent 2 started about 35 s after subevent 1, which allows for the possibility of dynamic triggering from subevent 1. The slip model predicts displacements comparable to those found from ocean‐bottom transducers near the epicenter. At frequencies that most affect tall buildings (0.1–0.5 Hz), there is a strong pulse (subevent 3) in the strong‐motion records that arrives after the near‐field ramp from subevent 2. High‐frequency subevent 3 was located down‐dip and south of the high‐slip portion of subevent 2 and was initiated as rupture from subevent 2 proceeded down‐dip. The compact pulse for subevent 3 is modeled with an M 8.0 source in a 75 by 30 km area that ruptured down‐dip and to the south with a high slip velocity, indicating high stress drop.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2021

Retreat and regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial as simulated by the CESM2-CISM2 coupled climate–ice sheet model

During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model-derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea-level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre-industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice-sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high-latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice-sheet response.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗

USGS2009

Littoral transport rates in the Santa Barbara Littoral Cell: a process-based model analysis

Identification of the sediment transport patterns and pathways is essential for sustainable coastal zone management of the heavily modified coastline of Santa Barbara and Ventura County (California, USA). A process-based model application, based on Delft3D Online Morphology, is used to investigate the littoral transport potential along the Santa Barbara Littoral Cell (between Point Conception and Mugu Canyon). An advanced optimalization procedure is applied to enable annual sediment transport computations by reducing the ocean wave climate in 10 wave height - direction classes. Modeled littoral transport rates compare well with observed dredging volumes, and erosion or sedimentation hotspots coincide with the modeled divergence and convergence of the transport gradients. Sediment transport rates are strongly dependent on the alongshore variation in wave height due to wave sheltering, diffraction and focusing by the Northern Channel Islands, and the local orientation of the geologically-controlled coastline. Local transport gradients exceed the net eastward littoral transport, and are considered a primary driver for hot-spot erosion.

California↗

USGS2023

A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial

The extent and seasonality of Arctic sea ice during the Last Interglacial (129,000 to 115,000 years before present) is poorly known. Sediment-based reconstructions have suggested extensive ice cover in summer, while climate model outputs indicate year-round conditions in the Arctic Ocean ranging from ice free to fully ice covered. Here we use microfossil records from across the central Arctic Ocean to show that sea-ice extent was substantially reduced and summers were probably ice free. The evidence comes from high abundances of the subpolar planktic foraminifera Turborotalita quinqueloba in five newly analysed cores. The northern occurrence of this species is incompatible with perennial sea ice, which would be associated with a thick, low-salinity surface water. Instead , T. quinqueloba ’s ecological preference implies largely ice-free surface waters with seasonally elevated levels of primary productivity. In the modern ocean, this species thrives in the Fram Strait–Barents Sea ‘Arctic–Atlantic gateway’ region, implying that the necessary Atlantic Ocean-sourced water masses shoaled towards the surface during the Last Interglacial. This process reflects the ongoing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean, currently restricted to the Eurasian Basin. Our results establish the Last Interglacial as a prime analogue for studying a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, expected to occur this century.

Nature Geoscience↗

USGS2020

The GFDL Earth System Model Version 4.1 (GFDL-ESM 4.1): Overall coupled model description and simulation characteristics

We describe the baseline coupled model configuration and simulation characteristics of GFDL's Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1), which builds on component and coupled model developments at GFDL over 2013–2018 for coupled carbon-chemistry-climate simulation contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In contrast with GFDL's CM4.0 development effort that focuses on ocean resolution for physical climate, ESM4.1 focuses on comprehensiveness of Earth system interactions. ESM4.1 features doubled horizontal resolution of both atmosphere (2° to 1°) and ocean (1° to 0.5°) relative to GFDL's previous-generation coupled ESM2-carbon and CM3-chemistry models. ESM4.1 brings together key representational advances in CM4.0 dynamics and physics along with those in aerosols and their precursor emissions, land ecosystem vegetation and canopy competition, and multiday fire; ocean ecological and biogeochemical interactions, comprehensive land-atmosphere-ocean cycling of CO 2 , dust and iron, and interactive ocean-atmosphere nitrogen cycling are described in detail across this volume of JAMES and presented here in terms of the overall coupling and resulting fidelity. ESM4.1 provides much improved fidelity in CO 2 and chemistry over ESM2 and CM3, captures most of CM4.0's baseline simulations characteristics, and notably improves on CM4.0 in (1) Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water ventilation, (2) Southern Ocean aerosols, and (3) reduced spurious ocean heat uptake. ESM4.1 has reduced transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity compared to CM4.0. Fidelity concerns include (1) moderate degradation in sea surface temperature biases, (2) degradation in aerosols in some regions, and (3) strong centennial scale climate modulation by Southern Ocean convection.

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAM↗

USGS2006

Introduction to ‘Antarctic climate evolution: View from the margin’

This special issue on “Antarctic Climate Evolution—view from the margin” presents results from modelling studies and reports on geoscience data aimed at improving our understanding of the behaviour of the Antarctic ice sheet and the climate of the region. This research field is of interest because of the sensitivity of the polar regions to global warming, and because of the influence of the Antarctic ice sheet on global sea level and climate through most if not all of the Cenozoic Era. The Antarctic ice sheet both responds to and forces changes on global climate and sea level. We need to be aware of the scale and frequency of these changes if we are to understand past patterns of environmental change elsewhere on earth. It was only three decades ago that we discovered from strata drilled in shelf basins on the Antarctic margin that the Antarctic ice sheet had a history that predated the Quaternary ice ages by over 20 million years ( Hayes et al., 1975 ). Later that year the first interpretation of Antarctic glacial history through the Cenozoic Era from oxygen isotopes, recorded in foraminifera from deep-sea sediment cores, was published ( Shackleton and Kennett, 1975 ). Revisions with a more extensive database have modified the story a little ( Miller et al., 1987 , Zachos et al., 2001 ), and there have been recent attempts to resolve the temperature–ice volume ambiguity ( Lear et al., 2000 ). However, reports on strata drilled on the Antarctic margin have unambiguously shown the character of this huge ice sheet, which was oscillating in the Oligocene ( Barrett et al., 1987 , Barrett, 1999 ) with a period and magnitude comparable with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets of the Quaternary ( Naish et al., 2001a , Naish et al., 2001b ). In this issue we present further research on the history of the Antarctic ice sheet from Oligocene to recent times, most of them from the Antarctic margin, but with some on the nature of the deep-sea isotope record, and others using recently developed modeling techniques to investigate the influence of atmosphere, ocean and biosphere on past Antarctic climate. This special issue is the third in three years on the theme of Antarctic Climate Evolution. The first followed a workshop in Erice, Sicily, in 2001 to report on results from ANTOSTRAT, a SCAR-sponsored project for gathering and analysing circum-Antarctic seismic data for planning and promoting offshore drilling for climate history. The introduction to that issue (Florindo et al., 2003) provides a review of the recent history of circum-Antarctic drilling by the Ocean Drilling Program (Legs 113, 114, 119, 120, 177, 178, 188 and 189) and the Cape Roberts Project. For a more comprehensive review of earlier drilling in the Ross Sea region (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 28, Dry Valley Drilling Project, McMurdo Sound Sediment and Tectonic Studies, Cenozoic Investigations in the western Ross Sea) see Hambrey and Barrett (1993). The first of these issues (Florindo et al., 2003) featured a global plate reconstruction of the Southern Hemisphere through Cenozoic time with emphasis on evolution of Cenozoic seaways (Lawver and Gahagan, 2003) along with a study of the inception and early evolution of the EAIS using a new coupled global climate (GCM)–dynamic ice sheet model (DeConto and Pollard, 2003b), as well as data from recent drilling around the margin covering time period from Cretaceous to the present. A second special issue on the same theme (Florindo et al., 2005) also featured a mix of modelling and data papers with a focus on the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the initiation of ice sheet growth, including a pioneering attempt to evaluate the relative influence of fluvial versus glacial processes in shaping the landscape of the Prydz Bay sector of Antarctica (Jamieson et al., 2005). The remainder of the issue comprised further papers on seismic stratigraphy and reports from drilling around the margin. The papers to be found in this special issue, like the previous two, maintain the mix of modelling- and data-oriented papers that reflect the range of this research.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗

USGS2011

Effect of tidal fluctuations on transient dispersion of simulated contaminant concentrations in coastal aquifers

Variable-density groundwater models require extensive computational resources, particularly for simulations representing short-term hydrologic variability such as tidal fluctuations. Saltwater-intrusion models usually neglect tidal fluctuations and this may introduce errors in simulated concentrations. The effects of tides on simulated concentrations in a coastal aquifer were assessed. Three analyses are reported: in the first, simulations with and without tides were compared for three different dispersivity values. Tides do not significantly affect the transfer of a hypothetical contaminant into the ocean; however, the concentration difference between tidal and non-tidal simulations could be as much as 15%. In the second analysis, the dispersivity value for the model without tides was increased in a zone near the ocean boundary. By slightly increasing dispersivity in this zone, the maximum concentration difference between the simulations with and without tides was reduced to as low as 7%. In the last analysis, an apparent dispersivity value was calculated for each model cell using the simulated velocity variations from the model with tides. Use of apparent dispersivity values in models with a constant ocean boundary seems to provide a reasonable approach for approximating tidal effects in simulations where explicit representation of tidal fluctuations is not feasible.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1999

Reassessment of ice-age cooling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere

The CLIMAP project's reconstruction of past sea surface temperature inferred limited ice-age cooling in the tropical oceans. This conclusion has been controversial, however, because of the greater cooling indicated by other terrestrial and ocean proxy data. A new faunal sea surface temperature reconstruction, calibrated using the variation of foraminiferal species through time, better represents ice-age faunal assemblages and so reveals greater cooling than CLIMAP in the equatorial current systems of the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic oceans. Here we explore the climatic implications of this revised sea surface temperature field for the Last Glacial Maximum using an atmospheric general circulation model. Relative to model results obtained using CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, the cooler equatorial oceans modify seasonal air temperatures by 1-2??C or more across parts of South America, Africa and southeast Asia and cause attendant changes in regional moisture patterns. In our simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Amazon lowlands, for example, are cooler and drier, whereas the Andean highlands are cooler and wetter than the control simulation. Our results may help to resolve some of the apparent disagreements between oceanic and continental proxy climate data. Moreover, they suggest a wind-related mechanism for enhancing the export of water vapour from the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific oceans, which may link variations in deep-water production and high-latitude climate changes to equatorial sea surface temperatures.

Nature↗

USGS2024

Pliocene–Pleistocene warm-water incursions and water mass changes on the Ross Sea continental shelf (Antarctica) based on foraminifera from IODP Expedition 374

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 374 sailed to the Ross Sea in 2018 to reconstruct paleoenvironments, track the history of key water masses, and assess model simulations that show warm-water incursions from the Southern Ocean led to the loss of marine-based Antarctic ice sheets during past interglacials. IODP Site U1523 (water depth 828 m) is located at the continental shelf break, northeast of Pennell Bank on the southeastern flank of Iselin Bank, where it lies beneath the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). This site is sensitive to warm-water incursions from the Ross Sea Gyre and modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) today and during times of past warming climate. Multiple incursions of subpolar or temperate planktic foraminifera taxa occurred at Site U1523 after 3.8 Ma and prior to ∼ 1.82 Ma. Many of these warm-water taxa incursions likely represent interglacials of the latest Early Pliocene and Early Pleistocene, including Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) Gi7 to Gi3 ( ∼ 3.72–3.65 Ma), and Early Pleistocene MIS 91 or 90 ( ∼ 2.34–2.32 Ma) and MIS 77–67 ( ∼ 2.03–1.83 Ma) and suggest warmer-than-present conditions and less ice cover in the Ross Sea. However, a moderately resolved age model based on four key events prohibits us from precisely correlating with Marine Isotope Stages established by the LR04 Stack; therefore, these correlations are best estimates. Diatom-rich intervals during the latest Pliocene at Site U1523 include evidence of anomalously warm conditions based on the presence of subtropical and temperate planktic foraminiferal species in what likely correlates with interglacial MIS G17 ( ∼ 2.95 Ma), and a second interval that likely correlates with MIS KM3 ( ∼ 3.16 Ma) of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period. Collectively, these multiple incursions of warmer-water planktic foraminifera provide evidence for polar amplification during super-interglacials of the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. Higher abundances of planktic and benthic foraminifera during the Mid- to Late Pleistocene associated with interglacials of the MIS 37–31 interval ( ∼ 1.23–1.07 Ma), MIS 25 ( ∼ 0.95 Ma), MIS 15 ( ∼ 0.60 Ma), and MIS 6–5e transition ( ∼ 0.133–0.126 Ma) also indicate a reduced ice shelf and relatively warm conditions, including multiple warmer interglacials during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). A decrease in sedimentation rate after ∼ 1.78 Ma is followed by a major change in benthic foraminiferal biofacies marked by a decrease in Globocassidulina subglobosa and a decrease in mud ( < 63 µ m) after ∼ 1.5 Ma. Subsequent dominance of Trifarina earlandi biofacies beginning during MIS 15 ( ∼ 600 ka) indicate progressive strengthening of the Antarctic Slope Current along the shelf edge of the Ross Sea during the mid to Late Pleistocene. A sharp increase in foraminiferal fragmentation after the MPT ( ∼ 900 ka) and variable abundances of T. earlandi indicate higher productivity, a stronger but variable ASC during interglacials, and/or corrosive waters, suggesting changes in water masses entering (mCDW) and exiting (High Salinity Shelf Water or Dense Shelf Water) the Ross Sea since the MPT.

Journal of Micropalaeontology↗

USGS2014

Tsunami forecast by joint inversion of real-time tsunami waveforms and seismic of GPS data: application to the Tohoku 2011 tsunami

Correctly characterizing tsunami source generation is the most critical component of modern tsunami forecasting. Although difficult to quantify directly, a tsunami source can be modeled via different methods using a variety of measurements from deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some of which in or near real time. Here we assess the performance of different source models for the destructive 11 March 2011 Japan tsunami using model–data comparison for the generation, propagation, and inundation in the near field of Japan. This comparative study of tsunami source models addresses the advantages and limitations of different real-time measurements with potential use in early tsunami warning in the near and far field. The study highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements and rapid validation of the approximate tsunami source for high-quality forecasting. We show that these tsunami measurements are compatible with other real-time geodetic data, and may provide more insightful understanding of tsunami generation from earthquakes, as well as from nonseismic processes such as submarine landslide failures.

Honshu↗

USGS2019

Tsunamis: Stochastic models of generation, propagation, and occurrence

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this paper, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic models. In each case, tsunamis generated by earthquakes are primarily considered. Stochastic models are developed from the physical theories that govern tsunami evolution combined with empirical models fitted to seismic and tsunami observations, as well as tsunami catalogs. These stochastic models are key to providing probabilistic forecasts and hazard assessments for tsunamis. The stochastic methods described here are similar to those described for earthquakes (Vere-Jones, 2013) and volcanoes (Bebbington, 2013) in this Encyclopedia.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

The use of quantitative models in sea otter conservation

Sea otters are good indicators of ocean health. In addition, they are a keystone species, offering a stabilizing effect on ecosystem, controlling sea urchin populations that would otherwise inflict damage to kelp forest ecosystems. The kelp forest ecosystem is crucial for marine organisms and contains coastal erosion. With the concerns about the imperiled status of sea otter populations in California, Aleutian Archipelago and coastal areas of Russia and Japan, the last several years have shown growth of interest culturally and politically in the status and preservation of sea otter populations. Sea Otter Conservation brings together the vast knowledge of well-respected leaders in the field, offering insight into the more than 100 years of conservation and research that have resulted in recovery from near extinction. This publication assesses the issues influencing prospects for continued conservation and recovery of the sea otter populations and provides insight into how to handle future global changes.

Book chapter↗

USGS2022

Simple relationships between residence time and annual nutrient retention, export, and loading for estuaries

Simple mathematical models are derived from mass balances for water and transported substance to provide insight into the relationships between import, export, transport, and internal removal for nonconservative substances in an estuary. Extending previous work, our models explicitly include water and substance inputs from the ocean and are expressed in terms of timescales (i.e., mean residence time and the timescale for net removal). Steady-state, timescale-based expressions for ratios of export to import, retention to import, and net export to loading, as well as for loading and annually averaged concentration, are provided. The net export : loading model explains the underlying mechanisms for a well-known empirical relationship between fractional net export and residence time derived by other authors. Although our simplified models are first-order approximations, the relative importance of physical and biochemical processes influencing export or retention of a substance can be assessed using mean residence time and the timescale for net removal. Assumptions employed in deriving the simplified models (e.g., well-mixed, dynamic steady state) may not be met for real estuaries. However, model application to Chesapeake Bay for 1985–2012 demonstrates that interannual variations in total nitrogen (TN) net export : loading can be evaluated, and annual nutrient loadings can be well estimated using numerically modeled time-varying mean residence time, observation-based mean concentration, freshwater inflow, and an appropriately estimated removal timescale. Our model shows that net fractional export of TN loading ranges from 0.3 to 0.5 over the 28-yr period. The models can be employed for other substances and water bodies if the underlying assumptions are applicable.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

USGS2011

Near-field hazard assessment of March 11, 2011 Japan Tsunami sources inferred from different methods

Tsunami source is the origin of the subsequent transoceanic water waves, and thus the most critical component in modern tsunami forecast methodology. Although impractical to be quantified directly, a tsunami source can be estimated by different methods based on a variety of measurements provided by deep-ocean tsunameters, seismometers, GPS, and other advanced instruments, some in real time, some in post real-time. Here we assess these different sources of the devastating March 11, 2011 Japan tsunami by model-data comparison for generation, propagation and inundation in the near field of Japan. This study provides a comparative study to further understand the advantages and shortcomings of different methods that may be potentially used in real-time warning and forecast of tsunami hazards, especially in the near field. The model study also highlights the critical role of deep-ocean tsunami measurements for high-quality tsunami forecast, and its combination with land GPS measurements may lead to better understanding of both the earthquake mechanisms and tsunami generation process.

Conference Paper↗

USGS1996

Meeting summary - Coastal meteorology and oceanography: Report of the third prospectus development team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and NSF

U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) prospectus development teams (PDTs) are small groups of scientists that are convened by the USWRP lead scientist on a one-time basis to discuss critical issues and to provide advice related to future directions of the program. PDTs are a principal source of information for the Science Advisory Committee, which is a standing committee charged with the duty of making recommendations to the Program Office based upon overall program objectives. PDT-1 focused on theoretical issues, and PDT-2 on observational issues; PDT-3 is the first of several to focus on more specialized topics. PDT-3 was convened to identify forecasting problems related to U.S. coastal weather and oceanic conditions, and to suggest likely solution strategies. There were several overriding themes that emerged from the discussion. First, the lack of data in and over critical regions of the ocean, particularly in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the upper-ocean mixed layer were identified as major impediments to coastal weather prediction. Strategies for data collection and dissemination, as well as new instrument implementation, were discussed. Second, fundamental knowledge of air-sea fluxes and boundary layer structure in situations where there is significant mesoscale variability in the atmosphere and ocean is needed. Companion field studies and numerical prediction experiments were discussed. Third, research prognostic models suggest that future operational forecast models pertaining to coastal weather will be high resolution and site specific, and will properly treat effects of local coastal geography, orography, and ocean state. The view was expressed that the exploration of coupled air-sea models of the coastal zone would be a particularly fruitful area of research. PDT-3 felt that forecasts of land-impacting tropical cyclones, Great Lakes-affected weather, and coastal cyclogenesis, in particular, would benefit from such coordinated modeling and field efforts. Fourth, forecasting for Arctic coastal zones is limited by our understanding of how sea ice forms. The importance of understanding air-sea fluxes and boundary layers in the presence of ice formation was discussed. Finally, coastal flash flood forecasting via hydrologic models is limited by the present accuracy of measured and predicted precipitation and storm surge events. Strategies for better ways to improve the latter were discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and the large swell event from distant Hurricane Bill on 22 August. The coastal impacts associated with Nor'Ida were due to the combined effects of surge, tide, and wave processes and led to an estimated 5.8 million dollars in damage. While the impacts from Hurricane Bill were not as severe as Nor'Ida, they were mainly associated with wave processes. Thus, this event exemplifies the importance of incorporating waves into the total water level and coastal impact prediction process. These examples set the stage for potential future applications including adaption to the more complex topography along the New England coast.

Conference Paper↗