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Final Report for Phase 1 - USGS-NE CSC and USFS-NRS Cooperative Research on Climate-Vulnerable Habitats and Species in the Northeast

The US Forest Service (USFS) and Northeast Climate (Adaptation) Science Center (NE CASC) came together to focus research and management cooperation on the topic of the impacts of climate change on forested ecosystems. This work had 3 primary components: 1) modeling headwater stream refugia; 2) investigating resilience and resistance strategies for New England forests; and 3) studying the impact of climate change on forest mammal communities. USFS and NE CASC organizations have complimentary expertise to share in order to improve natural resource management in the critical montane and headwater habitats in the region, and worked together to use this expertise in advancing science and science support for natural resource adaptation to a changing climate. This work resulted in increased understanding of the direct, indirect, and interactive responses of at-risk coldwater, montane and northern species to a changing climate; 2) the development of approaches and strategies for adaptation, including identification of potential climate refugia; and 3) interactive platforms for data, models and forecasts to communicate these and related results to the conservation and management community.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗

Climate change alters aging patterns of reservoir aquatic habitats

Two slow-moving developments are threatening reservoir aquatic habitats globally: aging and climate change. These events are projected to transform reservoir aquatic habitats in various and often unpredictable ways. Aging affects in-lake habitats directly, whereas climate change affects both in-lake and off-lake conditions. Climate change is expected to accelerate and, in some instances, possibly decelerate aging. Aging can be indexed as functional age, an index that signals the position of a reservoir along its lifespan relying on in-lake descriptors of aquatic habitat. Using existing habitat datasets and climate projections, we developed semi-quantitative predictions about the effect of climate change on reservoir functional age in the USA. Driven by increased warming, functional age was predicted to increase latitudinally from south to north with no obvious longitudinal gradient. Functional age also changed with precipitation, increasing latitudinally from south to north and longitudinally in the east and west but decreasing in the central USA. Our projections are tentative because of the uncertain nature of reservoir aging and climate change sciences, as well as the inexactness of available data and models. We review general strategies suitable for systematically dealing with the unpredictable and constantly changing conditions expected to occur this century as reservoirs certainly continue to get older, within the scope of uncertain climate change projections.

continental United States↗

Sediment distribution and transport along a rocky, embayed coast: Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay, California

Field measurements of beach morphology and sedimentology were made along the Monterey Peninsula and Carmel Bay, California, in the spring and summer of 1997. These data were combined with low-altitude aerial imagery, high-resolution bathymetry, and local geology to understand how coastal geomorphology, lithology, and tectonics influence the distribution and transport of littoral sediment in the nearshore and inner shelf along a rocky shoreline over the course of decades. Three primary modes of sediment distribution in the nearshore and on the inner shelf off the Monterey Peninsula and in Carmel Bay were observed. Along stretches of the study area that were exposed to the dominant wave direction, sediment has accumulated in shore-normal bathymetric lows interpreted to be paleo-stream channels. Where the coastline is oriented parallel to the dominant wave direction and streams channels trend perpendicular to the coast, sediment-filled paleo-stream channels occur in the nearshore as well, but here they are connected to one another by shore-parallel ribbons of sediment at depths between 2 and 6 m. Where the coastline is oriented parallel to the dominant wave direction and onshore stream channels are not present, only shore-parallel patches of sediment at depths greater than 15 m are present. We interpret the distribution and interaction or transport of littoral sediment between pocket beaches along this coastline to be primarily controlled by the northwest-trending structure of the region and the dominant oceanographic regime. Because of the structural barriers to littoral transport, peaks in wave energy appear to be the dominant factor controlling the timing and magnitude of sediment transport between pocket beaches, more so than along long linear coasts. Accordingly, the magnitude and timing of sediment transport is dictated by the episodic nature of storm activity. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

Marine Geology↗

Aquatic insect ecophysiological traits reveal phylogenetically based differences in dissolved cadmium susceptibility

We used a phylogenetically based comparative approach to evaluate the potential for physiological studies to reveal patterns of diversity in traits related to susceptibility to an environmental stressor, the trace metal cadmium (Cd). Physiological traits related to Cd bioaccumulation, compartmentalization, and ultimately susceptibility were measured in 21 aquatic insect species representing the orders Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera. We mapped these experimentally derived physiological traits onto a phylogeny and quantified the tendency for related species to be similar (phylogenetic signal). All traits related to Cd bioaccumulation and susceptibility exhibited statistically significant phylogenetic signal, although the signal strength varied among traits. Conventional and phylogenetically based regression models were compared, revealing great variability within orders but consistent, strong differences among insect families. Uptake and elimination rate constants were positively correlated among species, but only when effects of body size and phylogeny were incorporated in the analysis. Together, uptake and elimination rates predicted dramatic Cd bioaccumulation differences among species that agreed with field-based measurements. We discovered a potential tradeoff between the ability to eliminate Cd and the ability to detoxify it across species, particularly mayflies. The best-fit regression models were driven by phylogenetic parameters (especially differences among families) rather than functional traits, suggesting that it may eventually be possible to predict a taxon's physiological performance based on its phylogenetic position, provided adequate physiological information is available for close relatives. There appears to be great potential for evolutionary physiological approaches to augment our understanding of insect responses to environmental stressors in nature. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

Geomorphological mapping and anthropogenic landform change in an urbanizing watershed using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and geospatial modeling techniques

Increasing urbanization and suburban growth in cities globally has highlighted the importance of land planning using detailed geomorphologic maps that depict anthropogenic landform changes. Such mapping provides information crucial for land management, hazard identification, and the management of the challenges arising from urbanization. The development and use of quantitative and repeatable methods to map anthropogenic and natural processes are required to advance the science of urban geomorphological mapping. This study investigated the application of geospatial modeling, structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods and DEM differencing as means of quantifying anthropogenic landform changes from archival aerial imagery. Anthropogenic landforms were incorporated into a detailed geomorphologic map in an urbanizing watershed located in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan suburb of Vienna, Virginia.

Virginia↗

Effects of invasive alien kahili ginger (Hedychium gardnerianum) on native plant species regeneration in a Hawaiian rainforest

Questions: Does the invasive alien Hedychium gardnerianum (1) replace native understory species, (2) suppress natural regeneration of native plant species, (3) increase the invasiveness of other non-native plants and (4) are native forests are able to recover after removal of H. gardnerianum. Location: A mature rainforest in Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park on the island of Hawai'i (about 1200 m. a.s.l.; precipitation approximately 2770mm yr -1 ). Study sites included natural plots without effects of alien plants, ginger plots with a H. gardnerianum-domimted herb layer and cleared plots treated with herbicide to remove alien plants. Methods: Counting mature trees, saplings and seedlings of native and alien plant species. Using nonparametric H-tests to compare impact of H. gardnerianum on the structure of different sites. Results: Results confirmed the hypothesis that H. gardnerianum has negative effects on natural forest dynamics. Lower numbers of native tree seedlings and saplings were found on ginger-dominated plots. Furthermore, H. gardnerianum did not show negative effects on the invasive alien tree species Psidium cattleianum. Conclusions: This study reveals that where dominance of H. gardnerianum persists, regeneration of the forest by native species will be inhibited. Furthermore, these areas might experience invasion by P. cattleianum, resulting in displacement of native canopy species in the future, leading to a change in forest structure and loss of other species dependent on natural rainforest, such as endemic birds. However, if H. gardnerianum is removed the native Hawaiian forest is likely to regenerate and regain its natural structure. ?? 2009 International Association for Vegetation Science.

Applied Vegetation Science↗

Paleozoic and Mesozoic tectonic events west of the Waterbury Dome: Results of new mapping in the western Connecticut Highlands

This field trip highlights the results of recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) bedrock geologic mapping in four 7.5 min quadrangles in the western Connecticut highlands near Southbury, Connecticut, USA. The rocks are broadly within what Rodgers (1985) called the Hartland and Gneiss Dome belts of the Connecticut Valley Synclinorium ( Rodgers, 1985 ; Fig. 1 ), the latter of which is now known as the Connecticut Valley–Gaspe Trough (Hibbard et al., 2006). The mapping occurred over two intervals: 2003–2005 and 2016–present. In the first, the goal was a detailed map of the early Mesozoic Pomperaug basin, which overlaps the four quadrangles. Portions of the basin had been separately mapped during the statewide 7.5 min quadrangle mapping campaign spanning the 1950s–1970s, resulting in an inaccurate depiction of the basin on the 1985 state geologic map ( Rodgers, 1985 ). A new map of the basin was proposed in part to benefit an ongoing project by the USGS Connecticut Water Science Center to determine the contributions of natural and artificial contaminants to a public water-supply well in Woodbury, Connecticut, under the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program ( Starn and Brown, 2007) . The NAWQA project was partially funded by the Pomperaug River Watershed Coalition, which also provided logistical support to the geologic mapping project. Mapping of the basin was also a high priority for the Connecticut State Geologist at the time (Ralph Lewis, 2002, pers. comm.). The mapping resulted in an NEIGC (New England Intercollegiate Geologic Conference) field guide ( Burton et al., 2005) and a 1:12,000-scale USGS open-file map ( Burton, 2006) and was funded by the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program (NCGMP). The second phase of the mapping began in 2016 after the discovery of elevated levels of uranium and arsenic in domestic water wells in the igneous and metamorphic rocks that surround the sedimentary and volcanic rocks of the Pomperaug basin ( Flanagan and Brown, 2017) . Structural measurements in the surrounding crystalline rocks were made during Pomperaug basin mapping to better understand the tectonic setting, but a revision of the crystalline map units on Rodgers’ 1985 geologic map was not attempted. Nonetheless, discrepancies were noted between the new mapping and the 1985 map, particularly within the two northern quadrangles of Woodbury and Roxbury, which were originally mapped by Gates (1954) and Gates (1959) , respectively. Based on these discrepancies, a new NCGMP project was proposed to remap the Woodbury and Roxbury 7.5 min quadrangles, commencing in the fall of 2016. The expected USGS product will be a two-quadrangle, 1:24,000-scale Scientific Investigations Map (SIM). This field guide is not meant as a comprehensive review of all of the geologic research done in this area of Connecticut; rather, it looks at previous bedrock geologic mapping from the perspective of new and recent mapping in the four-quadrangle area and discusses the structural, stratigraphic, and nomenclatural revisions necessary for the next revision of the state geologic map.

Connecticut↗

Coastal National Elevation Database

The Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project develops enhanced topographic (land elevation) and bathymetric (water depth) datasets that serve as valuable resources for coastal hazards research (Danielson and others, 2016; Thatcher and others, 2016). These datasets are used widely for mapping inundation zones from riverine flood events, hurricanes, and sea-level rise and for other Earth science applications, such as sediment transport, erosion, and storm impact models. CoNED is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal-Marine Hazards and Resources Program (formerly Coastal and Marine Geology Program) activity centered at the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and distributed at other USGS Science Centers. As part of the vision for a 3D Nation, the CoNED Project is working collaboratively with the USGS National Geospatial Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers through the Interagency Working Group on Ocean and Coastal Mapping to build integrated elevation models in the coastal zone by assimilating the land surface topography with littoral zone and continental shelf bathymetry. Several nongovernmental organizations and Federal agencies, including the Department of the Interior Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center, the National Park Service, the Nature Conservancy, the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, and numerous academic institutions, partner to make CoNED a success.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey EDMAP Program—Training the next generation of geologic mappers

Detailed geologic maps are the basis of nearly every Earth-science investigation and can be used for natural hazard mitigation, resource identification and exploration, infrastructure planning, and more. A component of the congressionally mandated National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program, EDMAP is a partnership among the U.S. Geological Survey, the Association of American State Geologists, and participating colleges and universities that provides mentorship and training opportunities to geology students nationwide. Under the guidance of a faculty member, EDMAP supports upper level undergraduate and graduate students to gain meaningful experience working on 1-year geologic-mapping projects. Between 1996 and 2019, EDMAP funded research projects for more than 1,200 students at more than 160 universities. Every Federal dollar awarded through the EDMAP program is matched by the student’s university.

Fact Sheet↗

A Framework for Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Olympic National Park: Prototype for the Coniferous Forest Biome

This report is the result of a five-year collaboration between scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Olympic Field Station, and the natural resources staff of Olympic National Park to develop a comprehensive strategy for monitoring natural resources of Olympic National Park. Olympic National Park is the National Park Serviceʼs prototype monitoring park, representing parks in the coniferous forest biome. Under the umbrella of the National Park Serviceʼs prototype parks program, U.S. Geological Survey and Olympic National Park staffs are obligated to: develop strategies and designs for monitoring the long-term health and integrity of national park ecosystems with a significant coniferous forest component. design exportable monitoring protocols that can be used by other parks within the coniferous forest biome (i.e., parks having similar environments), and create a demonstration area and ʻcenter of excellenceʼ for assisting other parks in developing ecological monitoring programs. Olympic National Park is part of the North Coast and Cascades Network, a network of seven Pacific Northwestern park units created recently by the National Park Serviceʼs Inventory and Monitoring Program to extend the monitoring of ʻvital signsʼ of park health to all National Park Service units. It is our intent and hope that the monitoring strategies and conceptual models described here will meet the overall purpose of the prototype parks monitoring program in proving useful not only to Olympic National Park, but also to parks within the North Coast and Cascades Network and elsewhere. Part I contains the conceptual design and sampling framework for the prototype long-term monitoring program in Olympic National Park. In this section, we explore key elements of monitoring design that help to ensure the spatial, ecological, and temporal integration of monitoring program elements and discuss approaches used to design an ecosystem-based monitoring program. Basic monitoring components include ecosystem drivers, (e.g., climate, atmospheric inputs, human pressures), indicators of ecosystem integrity (e.g., biogeochemical indicators), known threats (e.g., impacts of introduced mountain goats), and focal or ʻkeyʼ species (e.g., rare or listed species, Roosevelt elk). Monitoring system drivers and key indicators of ecosystem integrity provide the long-term baseline needed to judge what constitutes ʻunnaturalʼ variation in park resources and provide the earliest possible warning of unacceptable change. Monitoring effects of known threats and the status of focal species will provide information useful to park managers for dealing with current park issues. In Part I we describe the process of identifying potential indicators of ecological condition and present conceptual models of park ecosystems. In addition we report results from several workshops held in conjunction with Olympic National Park aimed at identifying potential indicators of change in the parkʼs ecosystem. First, we describe the responses of Olympic National Park staff to the generic question, “What is the most important resource to monitor in Olympic National Park and why?” followed by the responses from resource and land managers from areas adjoining the park. We also catalogue the responses of various expert groups that we asked to help identify the most appropriate system drivers and indicators of change in the Olympic National Park ecosystems. Results of the workshops provided the justification for selecting basic indicators of ecosystem integrity, effects of current threats to park resources, and focal resources of parks to detect both the currently evident and unforeseeable changes in park resources. We conclude Part I by exploring several generic statistical issues relevant to monitoring natural resources in Olympic National Park. Specifically we discuss trade-offs associated with sampling extensively versus sampling intensively in smaller geographic regions and describe a conceptual framework to guide development of a generic sampling frame for monitoring. We recommend partitioning Olympic National Park into three zones of decreasing accessibility to maximize monitoring efficiency. We present examples of how the generic sampling frame could be used to help ensure spatial integration of individual monitoring projects. Part II of the report is a record of the potential monitoring questions and indicators identified to date in our workshops. The presentation is organized according to the major system drivers, components, and processes identified in the intermediate-level working model of the Olympic National Park ecosystem. For each component of the park system, we develop the need and justification for monitoring, articulate park management issues, and describe key resources and ecosystem functions. We also present a pictorial conceptual model of each ecological subsystem, identify monitoring questions, and list potential indicators for each monitoring question. We conclude each section by identifying linkages of indicators to other ecological subsystems in our general ecosystem model, spatial and temporal contexts for monitoring (where and how often to monitor), and research and development needs. Part II represents the most current detailed listing of potential indicators—the material for subsequent discussions of monitoring priorities and selection of indicators for protocol development. Collectively, the sections of this report contain a comprehensive list of the important monitoring questions and potential indicators as well as recommendations for designing an integrated monitoring program. In Part I, Chapter 6 we provide recommendations on how to proceed with the important next steps in the design process: establishing priorities among the many possible monitoring questions and indicators, and beginning to research and design effective long-term monitoring protocols.

Information and Technology Report↗

A statement of common ground regarding the role of wildfire in forested landscapes of the western United States

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke. Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects. Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public. Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics: A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography. B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography. C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types. D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals. E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent. F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities. G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important. H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes. I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward. We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.

Western United States↗

Ecosystem services science, practice, and policy: Perspectives from ACES, A Community on Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem services are at a crossroad. The natural capital needed to produce them is diminishing (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). At the same time, the science relating to their identification, production, and valuation is advancing. Examples of ecosystem services applications are abundant in the literature. In addition, the concept of ecosystem services and its applications are attracting attention and are becoming more visible. The concept of ecosystem services, however, is still not routinely applied to many natural resource management decisions.

Ecological Economics↗

Tribal engagement strategy of the South Central Climate Science Center, 2014

The South Central Climate Science Center was established by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 2012 to increase understanding of climate change and coordinate an effective response to climate-change effects on Native American tribes and natural and cultural resources that the Department manages. The eight regional Climate Science Centers of the U.S. Department of the Interior work closely with natural-resource management agencies, university researchers, and others such as tribes and private landowners on climate-change issues. The relatively large number of Native Americans in the south central United States and their special knowledge of changing ecosystems make working with tribes and tribal members on climate-change issues particularly important in this part of the Nation. This circular describes priorities of the South Central Climate Science Center and provides information about resources available from Climate Science Centers and partner agencies regarding climate change. The circular also describes how this Climate Science Center, tribes and tribal members, and others can collaborate to minimize potential harmful effects of climate change on human society and our surrounding ecosystems.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Fact Sheet↗

U.S. Geological Survey Appalachian region integrated science workshop proceedings, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, October 22-26, 2001

Some of nature's most magnificent creations on Earth are the picturesque landscape and the terrestrial and aquatic inhabitants of the Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States. Mother Nature has been kind to the region but man, often, has not. The Appalachian mountains and valleys have been home to a variety of human cultures, dating back approximately 12,000 years. A series of Native American peoples, including most recently the Cherokee Nation, inhabited the region prior to European settlement which began in the 1600's. All of these peoples have had the desire to reap the benefits of the land. Current and historic use of the land ranges from mineral extraction to agricultural development to timber production to industrial and residential development, all of which have now threatened the landscape. Many individuals and organizations desire to save the awe and beauty of the Appalachians for the generations to come, in a way that is environmentally and economically sustainable. They have tried for years to raise alarms that this area is threatened and worth the attention of all who are interested in an effort of restitution and preservation. Residents, environmental groups, land managers, scientists, business groups, and the multitude of visitors who pass through the national parks and other public lands located within the Appalachians have raised these same alarms. There is a need to not only identify the issues resulting from anthropogenic pressures on the landscape, but also to collect the information and conduct the science that will allow land managers and policy makers to become better informed and better able to execute their responsibilities.

Appalachia↗

Mangrove postcard

Mangrove ecosystems protect vulnerable coastlines from storm effects, recycle nutrients, stabilize shorelines, improve water quality, and provide habitat for commercial and recreational fish species as well as for threatened and endangered wildlife. U.S. Geological Survey scientists conduct research on mangrove ecosystems to provide reliable scientific information about their ecology, productivity, hydrological processes, carbon storage stress response, and restoration success. The Mangrove Science Network is a collaboration of USGS scientists focused on working with natural resource managers to develop and conduct research to inform decisions on mangrove management and restoration. Information about the Mangrove Science Network can be found at: http://www.usgs.gov/ecosystems/environments/mangroves.html .

General Information Product↗

Hydrogeology of the Old Faithful area, Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, and its relevance to natural resources and infrastructure

A panel of leading experts (The Old Faithful Science Review Panel) was convened by Yellowstone National Park (YNP) to review and summarize the geological and hydrological understanding that can inform National Park Service management of the Upper Geyser Basin area. We give an overview of present geological and hydrological knowledge of the Old Faithful hydrothermal (hot water) system and related thermal areas in the Upper Geyser Basin. We prioritize avenues for improving our understanding of key knowledge gaps that limit informed decision-making regarding human use in this fragile natural landscape. Lastly, we offer guidelines to minimize impacts to the hydrothermal system that could be used to aid decisions by park management. Old Faithful sits within the Upper Geyser Basin, an area of abundant hydrothermal activity where boiling waters extend from the surface to significant depth within glacial sediments and underlying volcanic rocks. The geyser systems are directly fed by waters recharged decades to millennia ago, which are surrounded by colder, younger waters. Activity of the geysers is controlled by complex subsurface plumbing with fractures and conduits separated by regions of low permeability. Observations over the past century indicate that the thermal areas and their features are both fragile and highly dynamic. Although Old Faithful has erupted regularly for the past 150 years, it exhibits changes in eruptive behavior over time, and the average interval between eruptions has increased by about 50 percent over the past 50 years. It is clear that human activity has modified the hydrothermal system in the past; conversely, natural features pose ongoing hazards to humans and human infrastructure. Current (2014) long-term programs to measure heat discharge by chloride-flux monitoring, and more recently by thermal-infrared imaging, are crucial for assessing the status of the hydrothermal system. Complementary studies could include airborne resistivity, environmental tracers, numerical modeling, and greater emphasis on measuring the discharge of water during geyser eruptions. Such data are needed to better understand the subsurface plumbing systems that feed the geysers. Further understanding can be gained through installation of shallow groundwater observation wells, surface geophysical studies, and direct measurement of temperature gradients near the surface. It also is critical to archive existing data from all studies in a manner that will be readily accessible to scientists and decision makers. Monitoring and data collection can be achieved through the YNP geology program, by direct funding to other groups, or by encouraging and facilitating externally funded research. There are many documented examples at YNP and elsewhere where human infrastructure and natural thermal features have negatively affected each other. Unless action is taken, human conflicts with the Old Faithful hydrothermal system are likely to increase over the coming years. This is partly because of the increase in park visitation over the past decades, but also because the interval between eruptions of Old Faithful has increased, lengthening the time spent (and services needed) for each visitor at Old Faithful. To avoid an increase in visitor impacts, the National Park Service should consider 2 alternate strategies to accommodate people, vehicles, and services in the Upper Geyser Basin, such as shuttle services from staging (parking and dining) areas with little or no recent hydrothermal activity. We further suggest that YNP consider a zone system to guide maintenance and development of infrastructure in the immediate Old Faithful area. A “red” zone includes hydrothermally active land where new development is discouraged and existing infrastructure is modified with great care. An outer “green” zone represents areas where cooler temperatures and less hydrothermal flow are thought to exist, and where development and maintenance could proceed as occurs elsewhere in the park. An intermediate “yellow” zone would require preliminary assessment of subsurface temperatures and gas concentrations to assess suitability for infrastructure development. The panel recommends that YNP management follow the lead of the National Park System Advisory Board Science Committee (2012) by applying the “precautionary principle” when making decisions regarding the interaction of hydrothermal phenomena and park infrastructure in the Old Faithful area and other thermal areas within YNP.

Wyoming↗