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USGS2019

Phosphorus and the Chesapeake Bay: Lingering issues and emerging concerns for agriculture

Hennig Brandt's discovery of phosphorus (P) occurred during the early European colonization of the Chesapeake Bay region. Today, P, an essential nutrient on land and water alike, is one of the principal threats to the health of the bay. Despite widespread implementation of best management practices across the Chesapeake Bay watershed following the implementation in 2010 of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) to improve the health of the bay, P load reductions across the bay's 166,000‐km 2 watershed have been uneven, and dissolved P loads have increased in a number of the bay's tributaries. As the midpoint of the 15‐yr TMDL process has now passed, some of the more stubborn sources of P must now be tackled. For nonpoint agricultural sources, strategies that not only address particulate P but also mitigate dissolved P losses are essential. Lingering concerns include legacy P stored in soils and reservoir sediments, mitigation of P in artificial drainage and stormwater from hotspots and converted farmland, manure management and animal heavy use areas, and critical source areas of P in agricultural landscapes. While opportunities exist to curtail transport of all forms of P, greater attention is required toward adapting P management to new hydrologic regimes and transport pathways imposed by climate change.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

USGS2023

Implications of fire-induced evapotranspiration shifts for recharge-runoff generation and vegetation conversion in the western United States

Wildfire has been shown to increase, decrease, or have no detectable effect on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fluxes in the western United States. Where disturbance-induced shifts are significant, source-water hydrology may be impacted as ETa constitutes the largest outgoing water flux in much of the arid West. We conducted pixel-scale analysis of 30-m ETa data and various meteorologic and landscape variables at 13 burn scars to understand how wildfire disturbance impacted hillslope-to-burn scar-scale hydrology and vegetation conversion. Significant fire-induced ETa reductions (between approximately −15 to −50%) were detected at nine burn scars through the tenth post-fire year, while ETa recovery rate varied substantially by ecoregion and pre-fire vegetation type. Along elevation gradients, both climate and land disturbance influenced the location of runoff/recharge generation zones, and more net water was generated from a snow-dominated burn scar in dry post-fire years than in wet pre-fire years. However, especially in arid locations where ETa is water-limited, compensatory ETa pathways may be more likely to dampen fire effects on total basin water yield where intact vegetation is located between the disturbance footprint and the basin outlet. Relationships between post-fire ETa shifts and early-successional vegetation conversion were also tracked. The majority of burn scars with significant fire-induced ETa reductions experienced conversion patterns typical of the western United States following stand-replacing disturbance, with forests converting to shrub/scrub and/or grassland/herbaceous cover through at least the end of the study period (eight to 15 years depending on date of the fire event). This could have important implications for high-elevation, snow-dominated watersheds – some of the most critical source water areas - as previous research indicates that wildfire activity is moving upslope and into vegetation communities that have not evolved to withstand fire. Finally, we show that much of the Colorado River Basin’s high-yield source water areas are vulnerable to the fire-induced ETa reductions and vegetation conversion observed herein. As such, water managers in the Colorado River Basin can anticipate changes in burn scar hydrology and snowpack mechanics following fire disturbance.

Journal of Hydrology X↗

USGS2012

Seasonal zooplankton dynamics in Lake Michigan: disentangling impacts of resource limitation, ecosystem engineering, and predation during a critical ecosystem transition

We examined seasonal dynamics of zooplankton at an offshore station in Lake Michigan from 1994 to 2003 and 2007 to 2008. This period saw variable weather, declines in planktivorous fish abundance, the introduction and expansion of dreissenid mussels, and a slow decline in total phosphorus concentrations. After the major expansion of mussels into deep water (2007–2008), chlorophyll in spring declined sharply, Secchi depth increased markedly in all seasons, and planktivorous fish biomass declined to record-low levels. Overlaying these dramatic ecosystem-level changes, the zooplankton community exhibited complex seasonal dynamics between 1994–2003 and 2007–2008. Phenology of the zooplankton maximum was affected by onset of thermal stratification, but there was no other discernable effect due to temperature. Interannual variability in zooplankton biomass during 1994 and 2003 was strongly driven by planktivorous fish abundance, particularly age-0 and age-1 alewives. In 2007–2008, there were large decreases in Diacyclops thomasi and Daphnia mendotae possibly caused by food limitation as well as increased predation and indirect negative effects from increases in Bythotrephes longimanus abundance and in foraging efficiency associated with increased light penetration. The Bythotrephes increase was likely driven in part by decreased predation from yearling and older alewife. While there was a major decrease in epilimnetic–metalimnetic herbivorous cladocerans in 2007–2008, there was an increase in large omnivorous and predacious calanoid copepods, especially those in the hypolimnion. Thus, changes to the zooplankton community are the result of cascading, synergistic interactions, including a shift from vertebrate to invertebrate planktivory and mussel ecosystem impacts on light climate and chlorophyll.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2015

Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This study also indicated that model calibration in not necessary to determine the direction of change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change.

Santa Cruz River Watershed↗

USGS2018

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of flooded seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands in San Joaquin and Tulare Basins during fall-winter. The main objective of this research is to provide decision-support for achieving waterbird conservation goals in the valley and to inform CVJV's regional conservation planning.

California↗

USGS2016

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

USGS2023

Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West Brook

As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.

Massachusetts↗

USGS1970

Comparison of chemical hydrogeology of the carbonate peninsulas of Florida and Yucatan

Aquifers of the peninsulas of Florida and northern Yucatan are Tertiary marine carbonate formations showing many lithologic and faunal similarities. In addition, the tropical to subtropical climates of the two areas are similar, each having annual rainfall of about 1000 to 1500 mm. Despite similarities in these fundamental controls, contrasts in the hydrologic and geochemical systems are numerous and striking. For example, Florida has many rivers; Yucatan has none. Maximum thickness of fresh ground water in Florida is about 700 meters; in the Yucatan it is less than 70 meters. In Florida the gradient of the potentiometric surface averages about 1 meter per kilometer; in the Yucatan it is exceedingly low, averaging about 0.02 meter per kilometer. In Florida the chemical character of water changes systematically downgradient, owing to solution of minerals of the aquifer and corresponding increases in total dissolved solids, sulfate, calcium, and Mg-Ca ratio; in the Yucatan no downgradient change exists, and dominant processes controlling the chemical character of the water are solution of minerals and simple mixing of the fresh water and the body of salt water that underlies the peninsula at shallow depth. Hydrologic and chemical differences are caused in part by the lower altitude of the Yucatan plain. More important, however, these differences are due to the lack of an upper confining bed in Yucatan that is hydrologically equivalent to the Hawthorn Formation of Florida. The Hawthorn cover prevents recharge and confines the artesian water except where it is punctured by sinkholes, but sands and other unconsolidated sediments fill sinkholes and cavities and impede circulation. In the Yucatan the permeability of the entire section is so enormous that rainfall immediately infiltrates to the water table and then moves laterally to discharge areas along the coasts.

Florida Peninsula, Yucatan Peninsula↗

USGS2012

Ecological effects of climate change on salt marsh wildlife: a case study from a highly urbanized estuary

Coastal areas are high-risk zones subject to the impacts of global climate change, with significant increases in the frequencies of extreme weather and storm events, and sea-level rise forecast by 2100. These physical processes are expected to alter estuaries, resulting in loss of intertidal wetlands and their component wildlife species. In particular, impacts to salt marshes and their wildlife will vary both temporally and spatially and may be irreversible and severe. Synergistic effects caused by combining stressors with anthropogenic land-use patterns could create areas of significant biodiversity loss and extinction, especially in urbanized estuaries that are already heavily degraded. In this paper, we discuss current ideas, challenges, and concerns regarding the maintenance of salt marshes and their resident wildlife in light of future climate conditions. We suggest that many salt marsh habitats are already impaired and are located where upslope transgression is restricted, resulting in reduction and loss of these habitats in the future. In addition, we conclude that increased inundation frequency and water depth will have negative impacts on the demography of small or isolated wildlife meta-populations as well as their community interactions. We illustrate our points with a case study on the Pacific Coast of North America at San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge in California, an area that supports endangered wildlife species reliant on salt marshes for all aspects of their life histories.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2019

Energetic status of Alaskan Chinook Salmon: Interpopulation comparisons and predictive modeling using bioelectrical impedance analysis

Adult Pacific Salmon Oncorhynchus spp . undertake energetically demanding migrations wherein they must have adequate energy reserves to survive to spawning locations and reproduce. Proximate analysis provides insight into available energy stores (e.g., lipids), but the ability to non-lethally monitor energetic status may be useful for managers to better understand how energetic status affects salmon populations in light of population declines and threats from climate change and habitat alteration. Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (N = 129) were sampled for proximate analysis from four populations in Alaska to examine variation in energetic status pre- and post-spawning migration and to create predictive bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) models for this species. We also tested two BIA devices (Q2 and CQR), whether models were generalizable to a con-specific (Chum Salmon Oncorhynchus keta), and the feasibility of integrating BIA into field studies. Populations sampled pre- spawning migration had higher percent lipid (N = 77; mean = 42.57%) than those collected post spawning migration (N = 52; mean = 19.71%). Total percent lipid and water were more accurately predicted from the Q2 device based on BIA measurements (RMSE = 5.33; RMSE = 2.43, respectively), relative to CQR device measurements (RMSE = 6.27; RMSE = 2.66). Between-species (Chinook to Chum RMSE = 19.47; Chum to Chinook RMSE = 7.69) models were less accurate than species specific models created for Chinook and Chum Salmon, therefore single species models should be used. We field-tested the BIA model to predict Chinook Salmon %lipid and %water on a remote Southeast Alaska river. Techniques were quickly taught to field crews and predictions were similar to other pre-spawning migration estimates. Our results indicate that integration of BIA into population monitoring could be a valuable tool to assess spatial and temporal patterns of energetic status of Chinook Salmon.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Island characteristics within wetlands influence waterbird nest success and abundance

Coastal waterbird populations are threatened by habitat loss and degradation from urban and agricultural development and forecasted sea level rise associated with climate change. Remaining wetlands often must be managed to ensure that waterbird habitat needs, and other ecosystem functions, are met. For many waterbirds, the availability of island nesting habitat is important for conserving breeding populations. We used linear mixed models to investigate the influence of pond and island landscape characteristics on nest abundance and nest success of American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), black-necked stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ), and Forster's terns ( Sterna forsteri ) in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, based on a 9-year dataset that included >9,000 nests. Nest abundance and nest success were greatest within ponds and on individual islands located either <1 km or >4 km from San Francisco Bay. Further, nest abundance was greater within ponds with relatively few islands, and on linear-shaped, highly elongated islands compared to more rounded islands. Nest success was greater on islands located away from the nearest surrounding pond levee. Compared to more rounded islands, linear islands contained more near-water habitat preferred by many nesting waterbirds. Islands located away from pond levees may provide greater protection from terrestrial egg and chick predators. Our results indicate that creating and maintaining a few, relatively small, highly elongated and narrow islands away from mainland levees, in as many wetland ponds as possible would be effective at providing waterbirds with preferred nesting habitat.

California↗

USGS2017

Influence of atmospheric rivers on vegetation productivity and fire patterns in the southwestern U.S.

In the southwestern U.S., the meteorological phenomenon known as atmospheric rivers (ARs) has gained increasing attention due to its strong connections to floods, snowpacks, and water supplies in the West Coast states. Relatively less is known about the ecological implications of ARs, particularly in the interior Southwest, where AR storms are less common. To address this gap, we compared a chronology of AR landfalls on the west coast between 1989 and 2011 and between 25°N and 42.5°N to annual metrics of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an indicator of vegetation productivity) and daily resolution precipitation data to assess influences of AR-fed winter precipitation on vegetation productivity across the southwestern U.S. We mapped correlations between winter AR precipitation during landfalling ARs and (1) annual maximum NDVI and (2) area burned by large wildfires summarized by ecoregion during the same year as the landfalls and during the following year. Interannual variations of AR precipitation strongly influenced both NDVI and area burned by wildfire in some dryland ecoregions. The influence of ARs on dryland vegetation varied significantly depending on the latitude of landfall, with those ARs making landfall below 35°N latitude more strongly influencing these systems, and with effects observed as far as 1300 km from the landfall location. As climatologists' understanding of the synoptic patterns associated with the occurrence of ARs continues to evolve, an increased understanding of how AR landfalls, in aggregate, influence vegetation productivity and associated wildfire activity in dryland ecosystems may provide opportunities to better predict ecological responses to climate and climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

USGS2013

Export of dissolved organic carbon from the Penobscot River basin in north-central Maine

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) flux from the Penobscot River and its major tributaries in Maine was determined using continuous discharge measurements, discrete water sampling, and the LOADEST regression software. The average daily flux during 2004–2007 was 71 kg C ha −1 yr −1 (392 Mt C d −1 ), an amount larger than measured in most northern temperate and boreal rivers. Distinct seasonal variation was observed in the relation between concentration and discharge (C–Q). During June through December (summer/fall), there was a relatively steep positive C–Q relation where concentration increased by a factor of 2–3 over the approximately 20-fold range of observed stream discharge for the Penobscot River near Eddington, Maine. In contrast, during January through May (winter/spring), DOC concentration did not increase with increasing discharge. In addition, we observed a major shift in the C–Q between 2004–2005 and 2006–2007, apparently resulting from unprecedented rainfall, runoff, and soil flushing beginning in late fall 2005. The relative contribution to the total Penobscot River basin DOC flux from each tributary varied dramatically by season, reflecting the role of large regulated reservoirs in certain basins. DOC concentration and flux per unit watershed area were highest in tributaries containing the largest areas in palustrine wetlands. Tributary DOC concentration and flux was positively correlated to percentage wetland area. Climatic or environmental changes that influence the magnitude or timing of river discharge or the abundance of wetlands will likely affect the export of DOC to the near-coastal ocean.

Maine↗

USGS2007

Ecological observations on the colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. in a New England tide pool habitat

The colonial ascidian Didemnum sp. has colonized northwestern Atlantic coastal habitats from southern Long Island, New York, to Eastport, Maine. It is also present in offshore habitats of the Georges Bank fishing grounds. It threatens to alter fisheries habitats and shellfish aquacultures. Observations in a tide pool at Sandwich, MA from December 2003 to February 2006 show that Didemnum sp. tolerates water temperatures ranging from ≤ 1 to > 24 °C, with daily changes of up to 11 °C. It attaches to pebbles, cobbles, and boulders, and it overgrows other tunicates, seaweeds, sponges, and bivalves. From May to mid July, colonies appear as small patches on the bottoms of rocks. Colonies grow rapidly from July to September, with some growth into December, and they range in color from pink to pale yellow to pale orange. Colony health declines from October through April, presumably in response to changes in water temperatures, and this degenerative process is manifested by color changes, by the appearance of small dark brown spots that represent clumps of fecal pellets in the colony, by scavenging by periwinkles, and by a peeling-away of colonies from the sides of cobbles and boulders. At Sandwich, colonies died that were exposed to air at low tide. The species does not exhibit this seasonal cycle of growth and decline in subtidal habitats (40–65 m) on the Georges Bank fishing grounds where the daily climate is relatively stable and annual water temperatures range from 4 to 15 °C. Experiments in the tide pool with small colony fragments (5 to 9 cm 2 ) show they re-attach and grow rapidly by asexual budding, increasing in size 6- to 11-fold in the first 15 days. Didemnum sp. at Sandwich has no known predators except for common periwinkles ( Littorina littorea ) that graze on degenerating colonies in the October to April time period and whenever colonies are stressed by desiccation. The tendencies of the ascidian (1) to attach to firm substrates, (2) to rapidly overgrow other species, (3) to tolerate a wide temperature range, (4) to be free from predation, and (5) to spread by colony fragmentation combine to make it a potential threat to benthic marine habitats and aquacultures. Didemnum sp. is known to overgrow mussels, oysters, and sea scallops, and it likely envelops other bivalves too.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2025

Review: The hydrogeology of critical mineral resources relevant to the energy transition

Attaining the goals of the international treaty on climate change (the Paris Agreement) will greatly increase the demand for the critical minerals required to implement clean-energy technologies. This poses both challenges and opportunities to the hydrogeologic community from several perspectives. Here, important insights that the hydrogeological sciences have to offer for mineral exploration, mineral production, and addressing environmental issues related to mining and mine decommissioning are summarized. This study focuses on copper, cobalt, lithium, and rare earths to represent the broad spectrum of critical minerals and illustrate their relevance by referring to projected demands and production rates. The current understanding of the hydrogeologic processes that form major deposits of these minerals are then summarized. Ore is defined as the naturally occurring material from which minerals of economic value can be extracted, where most ore deposits are the products of complex hydrogeologic couplings between fluid flow, heat transport, solute transport, chemical reactions, and mechanical deformation. Exploration models for the discovery of deeper, hidden deposits are potentially informed by hydrogeologic theory and hydrogeochemical processes. Hydrogeologic understanding and methods are also essential to production and recovery. Longstanding challenges are mine dewatering and (conversely) mine water supply, as well as mineral-extraction practices such as spoil heap leaching and in situ mining. New challenges arise from element extraction from subsurface brines. Finally, the quantity of water use and potential environmental impacts of mining on water quality are at the core of ‘social license’: the approval and acceptance of society to mining activities.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS1989

Late Quaternary paleolimnology of Walker Lake, Nevada

Diatoms, crustaceans, and pollen from sediment cores, in conjunction with dated shoreline tufas provide evidence for lake level and environmental fluctuations of Walker Lake in the late Quaternary. Large and rapid changes of lake chemistry and level apparently resulted from variations in the course and discharge of the Walker River. Paleolimnological evidence suggests that the basin contained a relatively deep and slightly saline to freshwater lake before ca. 30 000 years B.P. During the subsequent drawdown, the Walker River apparently shifted its course and flowed northward into the Carson Sink. As a result, Walker Lake shallowed and became saline. During the full glacial, cooler climates with more effective moisture supported a shallow brine lake in the basin even without the Walker River. As glacial climates waned after 15 000 years ago, Walker Lake became a playa. The Walker River returned to its basin 4700 years ago, filling it with fresh water in a few decades. Thereafter, salinity and depth increased as evaporation concentrated inflowing water, until by 3000 years ago Walker Lake was nearly 90 m deep, according to dated shoreline tufas. Lake levels fluctuated throughout this interval in response to variations in Sierra Nevada precipitation and local evaporation. A drought in the Sierras between 2400 and 2000 years ago reduced Walker Lake to a shallow, brine lake. Climate-controlled refilling of the lake beginning 2000 years ago required about one millennium to bring Walker lake near its historic level. Through time, lake basins in the complex Lake Lahontan system, fill and desiccate in response to climatic, tectonic and geomorphic events. Detailed, multidisciplinary paleolimnologic records from related subbasins are required to separate these processes before lake level history can be reliably used to interpret paleoclimatology. ?? 1989 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Journal of Paleolimnology↗

USGS2024

Hydrologic changes in the Brazos River Basin and implications for Great Plains fishes

Alteration of natural flow regimes from surface water and groundwater resource development has adversely impacted aquatic habitats of resident fish throughout the Great Plains. Two endangered cyprinids, Sharpnose Shiner Notropis oxyrhynchus and Smalleye Shiner N. buccula , were historically found throughout the Brazos River Basin in Texas. However, their range has been greatly reduced by construction of impoundments and stream depletion from groundwater pumping. Successful recruitment requires flowing, unobstructed river reaches of sufficient velocity to suspend semi-buoyant fertilized fish ova. The wide, shallow stream habitats the shiners utilize are now limited to the Upper Brazos River Basin upstream of Possum Kingdom Reservoir. This study assesses the relative importance of long-term climate variability, reservoir construction, and groundwater development on Upper Brazos streamflow regimes by (1) calculating flow metrics (2) evaluating groundwater-surface water interactions and long-term groundwater inflows, and (3) using mixed-effects regression models and Poisson regression. Results show that fish habitat has been threatened through several impacted hydrologic processes: (1) groundwater development has resulted in reduced mean daily flows, peak flows, and zero-flow days, (2) upstream impoundments have increased zero-flow days and reduced mean daily flows, and (3) lower mean daily flows and peak flows now occur during droughts, suggesting water resource development—particularly after 1970—has exacerbated drought effects. We illustrate this approach using the Upper Brazos River Basin; however, the methodology applied can inform management actions to maintain spawning flows for streams in similar altered basins.

Texas↗

USGS2012

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Newport News↗