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Proceedings of the first U.S. Geological Survey scientific information management workshop, March 21-23, 2006

In March 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) held the first Scientific Information Management (SIM) Workshop in Reston, Virginia. The workshop brought together more than 150 SIM professionals from across the organization to discuss the range and importance of SIM problems, identify common challenges and solutions, and investigate the use and value of “communities of practice” (CoP) as mechanisms to address these issues. The 3-day workshop began with presentations of SIM challenges faced by the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network and two USGS programs from geology and hydrology. These presentations were followed by a keynote address and discussion of CoP by Dr. Etienne Wenger, a pioneer and leading expert in CoP, who defined them as "groups of people who share a passion for something that they know how to do and who interact regularly to learn how to do it better." Wenger addressed the roles and characteristics of CoP, how they complement formal organizational structures, and how they can be fostered. Following this motivating overview, five panelists (including Dr. Wenger) with CoP experience in different institutional settings provided their perspectives and lessons learned. The first day closed with an open discussion on the potential intersection of SIM at the USGS with SIM challenges and the potential for CoP. The second session began the process of developing a common vocabulary for both scientific data management and CoP, and a list of eight guiding principles for information management were proposed for discussion and constructive criticism. Following this discussion, 20 live demonstrations and posters of SIM tools developed by various USGS programs and projects were presented. Two community-building sessions were held to explore the next steps in 12 specific areas: Archiving of Scientific Data and Information; Database Networks; Digital Libraries; Emerging Workforce; Field Data for Small Research Projects; Knowledge Capture; Knowledge Organization Systems and Controlled Vocabularies; Large Time Series Data Sets; Metadata; Portals and Frameworks; Preservation of Physical Collections; and Scientific Data from Monitoring Programs. In about two-thirds of these areas, initial steps to forming CoP are now underway. The final afternoon included a panel in which information professionals, managers, program coordinators, and associate directors shared their perspectives on the workshop, on ways in which the USGS could better manage its scientific information, and on the use of CoP as informal mechanisms to complement formal organizational structures. The final session focused on developing the next steps, an action plan, and a communication strategy to ensure continued development.

Scientific Investigations Report

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Scientific Investigations Report

Featured collection introduction: Connectivity of streams and wetlands to downstream waters

Connectivity is a fundamental but highly dynamic property of watersheds. Variability in the types and degrees of aquatic ecosystem connectivity presents challenges for researchers and managers seeking to accurately quantify its effects on critical hydrologic, biogeochemical, and biological processes. However, protecting natural gradients of connectivity is key to protecting the range of ecosystem services that aquatic ecosystems provide. In this featured collection, we review the available evidence on connections and functions by which streams and wetlands affect the integrity of downstream waters such as large rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries. The reviews in this collection focus on the types of waters whose protections under the U.S. Clean Water Act have been called into question by U.S. Supreme Court cases. We synthesize 40+ years of research on longitudinal, lateral, and vertical fluxes of energy, material, and biota between aquatic ecosystems included within the Act's frame of reference. Many questions about the roles of streams and wetlands in sustaining downstream water integrity can be answered from currently available literature, and emerging research is rapidly closing data gaps with exciting new insights into aquatic connectivity and function at local, watershed, and regional scales. Synthesis of foundational and emerging research is needed to support science‐based efforts to provide safe, reliable sources of fresh water for present and future generations.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Modeling connectivity of non‐floodplain wetlands: Insights, approaches, and recommendations

Representing hydrologic connectivity of non‐floodplain wetlands (NFWs) to downstream waters in process‐based models is an emerging challenge relevant to many research, regulatory, and management activities. We review four case studies that utilize process‐based models developed to simulate NFW hydrology. Models range from a simple, lumped parameter model to a highly complex, fully distributed model. Across case studies, we highlight appropriate application of each model, emphasizing spatial scale, computational demands, process representation, and model limitations. We end with a synthesis of recommended “best modeling practices” to guide model application. These recommendations include: (1) clearly articulate modeling objectives, and revisit and adjust those objectives regularly; (2) develop a conceptualization of NFW connectivity using qualitative observations, empirical data, and process‐based modeling; (3) select a model to represent NFW connectivity by balancing both modeling objectives and available resources; (4) use innovative techniques and data sources to validate and calibrate NFW connectivity simulations; and (5) clearly articulate the limits of the resulting NFW connectivity representation. Our review and synthesis of these case studies highlights modeling approaches that incorporate NFW connectivity, demonstrates tradeoffs in model selection, and ultimately provides actionable guidance for future model application and development.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio

Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: Introduction

Florida’s Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem’s spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world’s largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

Florida

Change points in annual peak streamflows: Method comparisons and historical change points in the United States

Change-point, or step-trend, detection is an active area of research in statistics and an area of great interest in hydrology because change points may be evidence of natural or anthropogenic changes in climatic, hydrologic, or landscape processes. A common change-point technique is the Pettitt test; however, many change-point methods are now available and testing of methods has been limited. This study investigated eight methods for detecting change points in the location (central tendency, seven methods) and scale (dispersion or spread, one method) of annual peak streamflows, using simulated data with and without change points, and peak-streamflow series from basins with known large additions of reservoir storage. Parametric methods tested, including a Bayesian one, did not perform well, even when transforming peak streamflows to approximate normality by using logarithms. Nonparametric methods other than the Pettitt test allow for more than one change point but have an unacceptable number of false positives. Based on the results of our methods comparisons, we used the Pettitt and the Mood tests to find change points in location and scale, respectively, in thousands of streamgage records in the conterminous United States. Change points in location (median) and scale are abundant, with the changes in median peak streamflow showing regional patterns, as well as a strong increased streamflow signal around 1970. The changes in scale of peak streamflows are dominated more by temporal than spatial patterns; more streamgages had decreases in scale in earlier decades than recent decades and more streamgages had increases in scale occurring in recent decades than earlier decades.

Journal of Hydrology

Committee on runoff, 1939–40

The Runoff Committee during the year has consisted of H. K. Barrows, Merrill Bernard, E. S. Callings, R. S. Goodridge, G. A. Hathaway, Joseph Jacobs, Prof. F. T. Mavis, H. S. Riesbol, Waldo E. Smith, F. F. Snyder, and H. G. Wilm. The Committee represents a rather wide geographic distribution, quite a large variety of interests, and most of the agencies interested in runoff‐problems. Throughout the year members of the Committee have shown interest in runoff‐problems of various kinds as evidenced by numerous articles and discussions in technical publications and by their participation in the deliberations of many working or advisory committees dealing with hydrologic problems. As the Chairman views it, the functions of the members of the research committees are not only to keep abreast of, and to make advances in, the technique relating to their particular fields, but also to demonstrate the practicability of the technique in the field of applied hydrology. Members of the Committee on Runoff have kept these aims in view. As in past years, the Committee is indebted to Miss Mary Soroka of New York City, Chairman of the International Committee on Bibliography, for her compilations of references to all articles relating to runoff, and to Mr. Beij for his work in connection therewith.

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union

Floodplain inundation spectrum across the United States

Floodplain inundation poses both risks and benefits to society. In this study, we characterize floodplain inundation across the United States using 5800 stream gages. We find that between 4% and 12.6% of a river’s annual flow moves through its floodplains. Flood duration and magnitude is greater in large rivers, whereas the frequency of events is greater in small streams. However, the relative exchange of floodwater between the channel and floodplain is similar across small streams and large rivers, with the exception of the water-limited arid river basins. When summed up across the entire river network, 90% of that exchange occurs in small streams on an annual basis. Our detailed characterization of inundation hydrology provides a unique perspective that the regulatory, management, and research communities can use to help balance both the risks and benefits associated with flooding.

Nature Communications

Geochemistry of the Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer

The Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer in south-central Oklahoma provides water for public supply, farms, mining, wildlife conservation, recreation, and the scenic beauty of springs, streams, and waterfalls. A new understanding of the aquifer flow system was developed as part of the Arbuckle-Simpson Hydrology Study, done in 2003 through 2008 as a collaborative research project between the State of Oklahoma and the Federal government. The U.S. Geological Survey collected 36 water samples from 32 wells and springs in the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer in 2004 through 2006 for geochemical analyses of major ions, trace elements, isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen, dissolved gases, and dating tracers. The geochemical analyses were used to characterize the water quality in the aquifer, to describe the origin and movement of ground water from recharge areas to discharge at wells and springs, and to determine the age of water in the aquifer.

Oklahoma

Passive sampling of groundwater wells for determination of water chemistry

Introduction Passive groundwater sampling is defined as the collection of a water sample from a well without the use of purging by a pump or retrieval by a bailer (Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council [ITRC], 2006; American Society for Testing and Materials [ASTM], 2014). No purging means that advection of water is not involved in collecting the water sample from the well. Passive samplers rely on diffusion as the primary process that drives their collection of chemical constituents. Diffusion is the transport of chemicals caused by the presence of a chemical gradient. Chemicals tend to move or diffuse from areas of higher concentration to areas of lower concentration to reach an average or equilibrium concentration. Passive sampling of groundwater relies on the ambient exchange of groundwater in the formation with water in the screened or open interval of a well. In this report, the term formation is used to describe all saturated hydrogeologic units that yield water to a well. If the well opening is unclogged and free of a film of deposits from physical turbidity or chemical precipitation, then the exchange of groundwater is likely adequate, and the water in the open interval will be representative of water in the formation. In some cases, the passive sample from the well opening can be more representative of groundwater from the formation than a sample collected by pumping if pumping induces mixing of water in the open interval with stagnant casing water that has undergone chemical alteration (Harte and others, 2018). In most cases, passive sampling will better represent the ambient groundwater chemistry flowing through the open interval of a well because pumping may capture water of different chemistry from downgradient or lateral areas that would not normally pass through the well. Three basic types of passive samplers are discussed in this report. The first type of passive sampler is the equilibrium-membrane type, which includes a semi-permeable membrane through which chemicals diffuse or permeate. Permeation is simply the process of water or chemicals moving through openings in the membrane. The authors contend that permeation is dominated by diffusion for many of the passive samplers discussed in this report. Some passive equilibrium-membrane-type samplers allow most types of chemical constituents through, whereas others allow the diffusion of only selected groups of chemicals. Once the chemical constituents are inside the membrane, they are retained by the equilibration of concentrations inside the sampler with those outside the sampler. The second type of passive sampler is an equilibrium-thief type, which has no semi-permeable membrane. Chemical constituents simply move through the openings in the body of the sampler either initially through advection and dispersion or over time primarily by diffusion. Chemical constituents reach equilibrium between the water in the sampler and the water in the well and are captured in the sampler when the sampler is closed. The third type of passive sampler is an accumulation-type sampler that contains sorptive media. Selected chemical constituents are sorbed onto the media that the sampler contains for later extraction and analysis. Although passive samplers have been available for more than 15 years (from present [2020]), their use by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologists and hydrologic technicians to monitor groundwater quality largely has been limited to selected research studies. The authors believe that this may be the result of (1) a lack of exposure of most USGS personnel to passive samplers and the uses of these samplers and (2) the lack of a USGS-approved protocol for the proper use of these samplers by USGS personnel. This report is an effort to fill those two needs. The focus of this report is on hydraulic, hydrologic, and chemical considerations in the application of passive samplers and interpretation of groundwater chemistry results obtained using passive samplers in wells. This report describes the differences between purging and passive sampling methods in groundwater and explains how and why passive samplers work. The report points out the advantages and limitations of passive samplers in general and for each particular type of passive sampler. Important considerations to be taken into account prior to the use of passive samplers are discussed, such as defining the data-quality objectives, the water-quality constituents to be sampled, sample volumes required for analysis, well construction of the sampling network, and the geologic formations that will be sampled. Potential applications of passive samplers also are discussed, such as chemical-vertical profiling of wells. A general field protocol for the deployment, recovery, and sample collection using these devices is described, and some overall guidance for the practitioner with application examples is given. Comparison methods used to evaluate results from passive sampling versus purge sampling also are discussed.

Techniques and Methods

Migratory bird habitat in relation to tile drainage and poorly drained hydrologic soil groups

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is home to more than 50% of the migratory waterfowl in North America. Although the PPR provides an abundance of temporary and permanent wetlands for nesting and feeding, increases in commodity prices and agricultural drainage practices have led to a trend of wetland drainage. The Northern Shoveler is a migratory dabbling duck species that uses wetland habitats and cultivated croplands in the PPR. Richland County in North Dakota and Roberts County in South Dakota have an abundance of wetlands and croplands and were chosen as the study areas for this research to assess the wetland size and cultivated cropland in relation to hydrologic soil groups for the Northern Shoveler habitat. This study used geographic information system data to analyze Northern Shoveler habitats in association with Natural Resource Conservation Service soil data. Habitats, which are spatially associated with certain hydrologic soil groups, may be at risk of artificial drainage installations because of their proximity to cultivated croplands and soil lacking in natural drainage that may become wet or inundated. Findings indicate that most wetlands that are part of Northern Shoveler habitats were within or adjacent to cultivated croplands. The results also revealed soil hydrologic groups with high runoff potential and low water transmission rates account for most of the soil within the Northern Shoveler‘s wetland and cropland habitats. Habitats near agriculture with high runoff potential are likely to be drained and this has the potential of reducing Northern Shoveler habitat.

Conference Paper

Summer runoff generation in foothill catchments of the Colorado Front Range

Climatic shifts, disturbances, and land-use change can alter hydrologic flowpaths, water quality, and water supply to downstream communities. Prior research investigating streamflow generation processes in mountainous areas has largely focused on high-elevation alpine and subalpine catchments; less is known about these processes in lower-elevation foothills and montane catchments. In these lower-elevation ecoregions, precipitation shifts seasonally from snow to rain, which can result in differing seasonal flowpaths. We analyzed stream water for electrical conductivity, SiO 2 , Ca, Mg, Na, Cl, SO 4 , K, and dissolved organic carbon on both a weekly and storm event basis from April to August 2018 in three small (<10 km 2 ) foothill catchments, and one larger (63.2 km 2 ) catchment extending from the foothills to the subalpine ecoregions, in the Colorado Front Range. Using two end-member hydrograph separations and concentration-runoff relationships, we inferred the dominant catchment-scale flowpaths of precipitation to the streams. We selected catchments with varying land use to investigate the relationship between these characteristics and hydrologic flowpaths. We observed that concentrations of lithogenic constituents generally increased and dissolved organic carbon decreased as seasonal runoff decreased in the three foothill catchments, reflecting a transition from shallow subsurface flowpaths to deeper subsurface flowpaths. Elevated SO 4 and Cl concentrations during low-flow periods in two of our catchments suggest that historical or current anthropogenic activities, such as mining, application of road salt, and/or near-stream septic systems, affect local stream and groundwater chemistry. In a foothill catchment with anthropogenic and geologic impervious surfaces, streamflow during storm responses was sourced from faster, surficial flowpaths compared to a less disturbed neighboring catchment, highlighting the influence of anthropogenic land-use on runoff generation. This study provides insight into the fundamental hydrology of foothill catchments and how they may function in the future with human development, precipitation shifts and disturbances.

Colorado

Hydrology of a nuclear-processing plant site, Rocky Flats, Jefferson County, Colorado

Accidental releases of contaminants resulting from the operation of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration's nuclear-processing and recovery plant located on Rocky Flats will move at different rates through -different parts of the hydrologic system. Rates of movement are dependent upon the magnitude of the accidental release and the hydrologic conditions at the time of the release. For example, during wet periods, a contaminant resulting from a 5,000-gallon (19,000-1itre) release on the land surface would enter the ground-water system in about 2 to 12 hours. Ground-water flow in the Rocky Flats Alluvium might move the contaminant eastward at a rate of about 3 to 11 feet (0.9 to 3.4 metres) per day, if it remains dissolved. Maximum time to a point of discharge would be about 3 years; minimum time could be a few days. A contaminant entering a stream would then move at a rate of about 60 feet (18 metres) per minute under pool-and-riffle conditions. The rate of movement might be about 420 feet (128 metres) per minute under open-channel-flow conditions following intense thunderstorms.

Open-File Report

Invited perspectives: Integrating hydrologic information into the next generation of landslide early warning systems

Although rainfall-triggered landslides are initiated by subsurface hydro-mechanical processes related to the loading, weakening, and eventual failure of slope materials, most landslide early warning systems (LEWS) have relied solely on rainfall event information. In previous decades, several studies demonstrated the value of integrating proxies for subsurface hydrologic information to improve rainfall-based forecasting of shallow landslides. More recently, broader access to commercial sensors and telemetry for real-time data transmission has invigorated new research into hydrometeorological thresholds for LEWS. Given the increasing number of studies across the globe using hydrologic monitoring, mathematical modeling, or both in combination, it is now possible to make some insights into the advantages versus limitations of this approach. The extensive progress demonstrates the value of in situ hydrologic information for reducing both failed and false alarms, through the ability to characterize infiltration during, as well as the drainage and drying processes between major storm events. There are also some areas for caution surrounding the long-term sustainability of subsurface monitoring in landslide-prone terrain, as well as unresolved questions in hillslope hydrologic modeling, which relies heavily on the assumptions of diffuse flow and vertical infiltration but often ignores preferential flow and lateral drainage. Here, we share a collective perspective based on our previous collaborative work across Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia to discuss these challenges and provide some guidelines for integrating knowledge of hydrology and climate into the next generation of LEWS. We propose that the greatest opportunity for improvement is through a measure-and-model approach to develop an understanding of landslide hydro-climatology that accounts for local controls on subsurface storage dynamics. Additionally, new efforts focused on the subsurface hydrology are complementary to existing rainfall-based methods, so leveraging these with near-term precipitation forecasts is a priority for increasing lead times.

Alaska

Climate-mediated changes to linked terrestrial and marine ecosystems across the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

BioScience

USGS research on Florida's isolated freshwater wetlands

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has studied wetland hydrology and its effects on wetland health and ecology in Florida since the 1990s. USGS wetland studies in Florida and other parts of the Nation provide resource managers with tools to assess current conditions and regional trends in wetland resources. Wetland hydrologists in the USGS Florida Water Science Center (FLWSC) have completed a number of interdisciplinary studies assessing the hydrology, ecology, and water quality of wetlands. These studies have expanded the understanding of wetland hydrology, ecology, and related processes including: (1) the effects of cyclical changes in rainfall and the influence of evapotranspiration; (2) surface-water flow, infiltration, groundwater movement, and groundwater and surfacewater interactions; (3) the effects of water quality and soil type; (4) the unique biogeochemical components of wetlands required to maintain ecosystem functions; (5) the effects of land use and other human activities; (6) the influences of algae, plants, and invertebrates on environmental processes; and (7) the effects of seasonal variations in animal communities that inhabit or visit Florida wetlands and how wetland function responds to changes in the plant community.

Florida

Tree growth and recruitment in a leveed floodplain forest in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, USA

Flooding is a defining disturbance in floodplain forests affecting seed germination, seedling establishment, and tree growth. Globally, flood control, including artificial levees, dams, and channelization has altered flood regimes in floodplains. However, a paucity of data are available in regards to the long-term effects of levees on stand establishment and tree growth in floodplain forests. In this study, we used dendrochronological techniques to reconstruct tree recruitment and tree growth over a 90-year period at three stands within a ring levee in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV) and to evaluate whether recruitment patterns and tree growth changed following levee construction. We hypothesized that: (1) sugarberry is increasing in dominance and overcup oak ( Quercus lyrata ) is becoming less dominant since the levee, and that changes in hydrology are playing a greater role than canopy disturbance in these changes in species dominance; and (2) that overcup oak growth has declined following construction of the levee and cessation of overbank flooding whereas that of sugarberry has increased. Recruitment patterns shifted from flood-tolerant overcup oak to flood-intolerant sugarberry ( Celtis laevigata ) after levee construction. None of the 122 sugarberry trees cored in this study established prior to the levee, but it was the most common species established after the levee. The mechanisms behind the compositional change are unknown, however, the cosmopolitan distribution of overcup oak during the pre-levee period and sugarberry during the post-levee period, the lack of sugarberry establishment in the pre-levee period, and the confinement of overcup oak regeneration to the lowest areas in each stand after harvest in the post-levee period indicate that species-specific responses to flooding and light availability are forcing recruitment patterns. Overcup oak growth was also affected by levee construction, but in contrast to our hypothesis, growth actually increased for several decades before declining during a drought in the late 1990s. We interpret this result as removal of flood stress following levee construction. This finding emphasizes the fact that flooding can be stressful to trees regardless of their flood tolerance and that growth in floodplain trees can be sustained provided adequate soil moisture is present, regardless of the source of soil moisture. However, future research efforts should focus on the long-term effect of hydrologic modification on stand development and on how hydrologic modifications, such as elimination of surface flooding and groundwater declines, affect the vulnerability of floodplain forests to drought.

Forest Ecology and Management

Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate

Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that leads to hydrological imbalance. Drought assessments determine the characteristics, severity, and impacts of a drought. Climate change adds conceptual and quantitative challenges to traditional drought assessments. This paper highlights the challenges of assessing drought in a climate made non-stationary by human activities or natural variability. To address these challenges, we then identify 10 key research priorities for advancing drought science and improving assessments in a changing climate. The priorities focus on improving drought indicators to account for non-stationarity, evaluating drought impacts and their trends, addressing regional differences in non-stationarity, determining the physical drivers of drought and how they are changing, capturing precipitation variability, and understanding the drivers of aridification. Ultimately, improved drought assessments will inform better risk management, adaptation strategies, and planning, especially in areas where climate change significantly alters drought dynamics. This perspective offers a path toward more accurate and effective drought management in a non-stationary climate system.

Earth's Future