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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Modeling summer month hydrological drought probabilities in the United States using antecedent flow conditions

Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5-11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best-performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1965

Description and analysis of the geohydrologic system in western Pinal County, Arizona

Western Pinal County is between Phoenix and Tucson in the Basin and Range physiographic province of southern Arizona and consists of about 2,000 square miles of valley floor with low relief surrounded by mountains. It is the second largest agricultural area in the State, and about 25 percent of the ground water pumped in the State is from this area. The study area has been divided into four parts. Three of these--the Casa Grande-Florence area, the Eloy area, and the Stanfield-Maricopa area--are in the lower Santa Cruz basin; the fourth--the Gila River area--is a long narrow strip along the Gila River from the Ashurst-Hayden Dam to the confluence of the Gila and Santa Cruz Rivers. The project was undertaken to provide a better understanding of the ground-water supply in relation to the present and potential water use in this area of extensive ground-water development. The arid climate of western Pinal County--combining high temperatures and low humidity--causes most of the precipitation to be returned to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration, which leaves only a very small part for recharge to the ground-water reservoir. The computed potential evapotranspiration--44. 97 inches--is five times greater than the average precipitation. In general, the subsurface materials in western Pinal County are unconsolidated alluvial deposits underlain by consolidated alluvium and crystalline rocks and bounded by mountains consisting of crystalline and minor sedimentary rocks. The crystalline and sedimentary rocks of the mountains are not known to be water bearing in western Pinal County. The impermeable rocks underlying the basin are called the hydrologic bedrock unit in this report. Although the unit may consist of several different rock types, the distinction between them is relatively unimportant in this study because none of them yield appreciable amounts of water. The lower Santa Cruz basin in western Pinal County is divided into two sections by a buried ridge of the hydrologic bedrock unit, referred to in this report as the Casa Grande ridge. The ridge trends in a north-south direction from the Sacaton to the Silver Reef Mountains. The unconsolidated deposits constitute the main storage reservoir for ground water in western Pins/ County. The deposits are divided into four units---the local gravel unit, the lower sand and gravel unit, the silt and clay unit, and the upper sand and gravel unit--all of which are major water-yielding units except the silt and clay unit. The local gravel unit, which is present only in the western section of the lower Santa Cruz basin, ranges in thickness from 0 to nearly 1,000 feet and is generally a productive aquifer. The lower sand and gravel unit, Which is a heterogeneous mixture of sand, gravel, and clay, ranges in thickness from 0 to about 500 feet. Where the lower sand and gravel unit is overlain by the silt and clay unit, it generally contains water under artesian conditions; where it is not overlain by the silt and clay unit, it is indistinguishable from the upper sand and gravel unit, and the water is under water-table conditions. The silt and clay unit is the least permeable deposit of the unconsolidated alluvium, and ranges in thickness from 0 to about 2, 000 feet. Generally it is less productive than the other units of the unconsolidated alluvium, although it yields moderate amounts of water from numerous thin stringers and lenses of highly permeable sand and gravel. The upper sand and gravel unit is at the land surface in most of the area; it ranges in thickness from less than 50 to about 600 feet. The unit has the highest average permeability of all the unconsolidated alluvial units; however, the permeability of the unit varies vertically and laterally, which results in a wide range of well yields. As of 1964, the static water levels in most wells in the basin were still in the upper sand and gravel unit. However, the unit is being dewatered in most of the basin, and water levels in

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Open hydrology courseware using the United States Geological Survey’s National Water Census Data Portal

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the primary U.S. Government agency for water data collection and dissemination. In this role, the USGS has recently created and deployed a National Water Census Data Portal (NWC-DP) which provides access to streamflow, evapotransporation, precipitation, aquatic biology and other data at the national level. Recognizing the value of these data sets for hydrologic science education, this paper presents an effort to bridge the gap between pencil–and-paper-based hydrology curriculum and the USGS NWC-DP resource. Specifically, we have developed an R package, National Water Census Education (NWCEd), and five associated laboratory exercises that integrate R- and web-services-based access to the NWC-DP data sets. Using custom functions built into the NWCEd, students are able to access unprecedented amounts of hydrologic data from the NWC-DP, which can be applied to current hydrology curriculum and analyzed using NWCEd and a number of other open-source R tools.

Open Water Journal↗
USGS1995

Hydrologic data for the Fristoe Unit of the Mark Twain National Forest, southern Missouri, 1988-93

Background hydrologic data were collected from 1988 to 1993 in the Fristoe Unit of the Mark Twain National Forest. Water-quality data collected from area streams, springs, and wells were analyzed using trilinear diagrams, stiff diagrams, boxplots, and summary statistics. The water is a calcium- magnesium-bicarbonate type. Streams generally have slightly larger potassium, barium, and total organic carbon concentrations than spring or well water. Well water has larger bicarbonate and zinc concen- trations and larger variability in sodium, chloride, and nitrate concentrations than stream and spring water samples. The bulk mineralogy for streambed material is primarily coarse grain quartz. Quantitative elemental (chemistry) analysis on the less than 63 micrometer fraction of bulk material was performed. The heavy mineral concentrate in the streambed material was analyzed using semi- quantitative optical mineralogy and 37-element semi- quantitative emission spectrography. Water levels were measured in 57 area wells in the spring and fall from 1990 to 1993 to determine ground-water level fluctuations. Ground-water fluctuations ranged from less than 1.0 to 205.1 feet in these wells. Continuous water-level recorders were installed on three area wells. Depth to water ranged from 289.68 to 333.39 feet in the lower Eleven Point well, which is completed in the Ozark aquifer. Depth to water ranged from 78.73 to 90.20 feet in Ozark Lead Well 1 which is completed in the Ozark aquifer and St. Francois confining unit. Depth to water ranged from 127.53 to 135.67 feet in Ozark Lead Well 2, which is completed in the St. Francois confining unit and the St. Francois aquifer.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2026

Long-term monotonic trends in water budget components in the contiguous United States: Insights from two hydrologic models

Characterizing changes to water availability for domestic, industrial, agricultural, and other uses is essential to support water management. To better quantify these changes, the U.S. Geological Survey and National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research produced two hydrologic models simulating water budget components from 1980 to 2021 over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Both hydrologic models were driven by a common atmospheric forcing dataset and aggregated to common spatial and temporal scales, which enables a novel evaluation of congruency between the models. We present annual and seasonal trends in six water budget components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, groundwater recharge, soil saturation, and snow water equivalent) based on the Mann–Kendall test for monotonic trend and Theil-Sen slope estimate for the water year 1983–2021 period for ~86,000 catchments in CONUS. Additional components and metrics from our analysis pipeline are available in an associated published dataset, which contains more than 46 million trend results. The water budget trends showed broad agreement with prior observational and modeling studies that indicate increasing trends in the northeast and decreasing trends in southwestern CONUS. We found the seasonal variability in water budget trends was greatest in the southern, central, and northwest CONUS. These findings support integrated trend assessments when coupled with trends in water quality and use.

Contiguous United States↗
USGS2000

Methodology and application of combined watershed and ground-water models in Kansas

Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and versatility of this relatively simple and conceptually clear approach, making public acceptance of the integrated watershed modeling system much easier. This approach also enhances model calibration and thus the reliability of model results. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.Increased irrigation in Kansas and other regions during the last several decades has caused serious water depletion, making the development of comprehensive strategies and tools to resolve such problems increasingly important. This paper makes the case for an intermediate complexity, quasi-distributed, comprehensive, large-watershed model, which falls between the fully distributed, physically based hydrological modeling system of the type of the SHE model and the lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling system of the type of the Stanford watershed model. This is achieved by integrating the quasi-distributed watershed model SWAT with the fully-distributed ground-water model MODFLOW. The advantage of this approach is the appreciably smaller input data requirements and the use of readily available data (compared to the fully distributed, physically based models), the statistical handling of watershed heterogeneities by employing the hydrologic-response-unit concept, and the significantly increased flexibility in handling stream-aquifer interactions, distributed well withdrawals, and multiple land uses. The mechanics of integrating the component watershed and ground-water models are outlined, and three real-world management applications of the integrated model from Kansas are briefly presented. Three different aspects of the integrated model are emphasized: (1) management applications of a Decision Support System for the integrated model (Rattlesnake Creek subbasin); (2) alternative conceptual models of spatial heterogeneity related to the presence or absence of an underlying aquifer with shallow or deep water table (Lower Republican River basin); and (3) the general nature of the integrated model linkage by employing a watershed simulator other than SWAT (Wet Walnut Creek basin). These applications demonstrate the practicality and ve

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2019

Severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes based on hydrologic metrics in the conterminous United States, 1980–2014

Alteration of the natural streamflow regime by land and water management, such as land-cover change and dams, is associated with aquatic ecosystem degradation. The severity and geographic extent of streamflow alteration at regional and national scales, however, remain largely unquantified. The primary goal of this study is to characterize the severity and extent of alterations to natural streamflow regimes for 1980–2014 based on hydrologic metrics at 3,355 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the conterminous United States. Twelve hydrologic metrics with known relevance to aquatic ecosystem health were used to characterize the streamflow regime. Alterations to the 12 hydrologic metrics were quantified by taking ratios of the metrics calculated from observed daily streamflow records divided by the same metrics predicted for natural conditions by random forest statistical models. Some level of streamflow alteration (diminishment or inflation of hydrologic metrics) compared to natural conditions was indicated at about 80 percent of the assessed streamgages across the conterminous United States. The severity of alteration differed among ecoregions because of differences in dominant land and water management practices. Finally, when compared over the period 1980–2014, climate variability generally played a minor role in the alteration of streamflows across the United States when compared to the effects of land and water management.

Conterminous United States↗
USGS2009

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
USGS2004

A methodology to asess relations between climatic variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States

A new method for frequency analysis of hydrologic time series was developed to facilitate the estimation and reconstruction of individual or groups of frequencies from hydrologic time-series and facilitate the comparison of these isolated time-series components across data types, between different hydrologic settings within a watershed, between watersheds, and across frequencies. While climate-related variations in inflow to and outflow from aquifers have often been neglected, the development and management of ground-water and surface-water resources has required the inclusion of the assessment of the effects of climatic variability on the supply and demand and sustainability of use. The regional assessment of climatic variability of surface-water and ground-water flow throughout the southwestern United States required this new systematic method of hydrologic time-series analysis. To demonstrate the application of this new method, six hydrologic time-series from the Mojave River Basin, California were analyzed. The results indicate that climatic variability exists in all the data types and are partially coincident with known climate cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The time-series also indicate lagged correlations between tree-ring indices, streamflow, stream base flow, and ground-water levels. These correlations and reconstructed time-series can be used to better understand the relation of hydrologic response to climatic forcings and to facilitate the simulation of streamflow and ground-water recharge for a more realistic approach to water-resource management. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2019

Multiorder hydrologic position in the conterminous United States: A set of metrics in support of groundwater mapping at regional and national scales

The location of a point on the landscape within a stream network (hydrologic position) can be an important predictive measure in hydrology. Hydrologic position is defined here by two metrics: lateral position and distance from stream to divide, both measured horizontally. Lateral position (dimensionless) is the relative position of a point between the stream and its watershed divide. Distance from stream to divide (units of length) is an indicator of position within a watershed: generally small near a confluence and generally large in headwater areas. Watersheds and watershed divides are defined here by Thiessen polygons rather than topographic divides. Lateral position and distance from stream to divide are also defined in the context of hydrologic order. Hydrologic order “ n ” is defined as the network of streams, and associated divides, of order n and higher. And given that a point can have different positions in different hydrologic orders the term multiorder hydrologic position (MOHP) is used to describe the ensemble of hydrologic positions. MOHP was mapped across the conterminous United States for nine hydrologic orders at a spatial resolution of 30 m (about 8.7 billion pixels). There are 18 metrics for each pixel. Four case studies are presented that use MOHP metrics as explanatory factors in random forest machine learning models. The case studies show that lower order MOHP metrics can serve as indicators of hydrologic process while higher‐order metrics serve as indicators of location. MOHP is shown to have utility as a predictor variable across a large range of scales (50,000 to 8,000,000 km 2 ).

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1989

Preparation of average annual runoff map of the United States, 1951-80

Average annual runoff was computed or estimated for 2,148 hydrologic cataloging units in the United States and Puerto Rico , for the period 1951-80. Runoff was computed from the recorded streamflow at 5,951 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations. The runoff at more than 3,000 of these stations was estimated by correlation with other nearby stations to adjust for missing data. These runoff data were used to draw a map depicting the variation of runoff throughout the nation. Average annual runoff varied from less than 0.01 inch in parts of the Great Basin (Utah, parts of Nevada, Oregon, and California) to more than 240 inches in southeastern Alaska. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗