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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2006

Gas slug ascent through changes in conduit diameter: Laboratory insights into a volcano-seismic source process in low-viscosity magmas

Seismic signals generated during the flow and degassing of low-viscosity magmas include long-period (LP) and very-long-period (VLP) events, whose sources are often attributed to dynamic fluid processes within the conduit. We present the results of laboratory experiments designed to investigate whether the passage of a gas slug through regions of changing conduit diameter could act as a suitable source mechanism. A vertical, liquid-filled glass tube featuring a concentric diameter change was used to provide canonical insights into potentially deep or shallow seismic sources. As gas slugs ascend the tube, we observe systematic pressure changes varying with slug size, liquid depth, tube diameter, and liquid viscosity. Gas slugs undergoing an abrupt flow pattern change upon entering a section of significantly increased tube diameter induce a transient pressure decrease in and above the flare and an associated pressure increase below it, which stimulates acoustic and inertial resonant oscillations. When the liquid flow is not dominantly controlled by viscosity, net vertical forces on the apparatus are also detected. The net force is a function of the magnitude of the pressure transients generated and the tube geometry, which dictates where, and hence when, the traveling pressure pulses can couple into the tube. In contrast to interpretations of related volcano-seismic data, where a single downward force is assumed to result from an upward acceleration of the center of mass in the conduit, our experiments suggest that significant downward forces can result from the rapid deceleration of relatively small volumes of downward-moving liquid. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Modeling physical and biogeochemical controls over carbon accumulation in a boreal forest soil

Boreal soils are important to the global C cycle owing to large C stocks, repeated disturbance from fire, and the potential for permafrost thaw to expose previously stable, buried C. To evaluate the primary mechanisms responsible for both short- and long-term C accumulation in boreal soils, we developed a multi-isotope (12,14C) Soil C model with dynamic soil layers that develop through time as soil organic matter burns and reaccumulates. We then evaluated the mechanisms that control organic matter turnover in boreal regions including carbon input rates, substrate recalcitrance, soil moisture and temperature, and the presence of historical permafrost to assess the importance of these factors in boreal C accumulation. Results indicate that total C accumulation is controlled by the rate of carbon input, decomposition rates, and the presence of historical permafrost. However, unlike more temperate ecosystems, one of the key mechanisms involved in C preservation in boreal soils examined here is the cooling of subsurface soil layers as soil depth increases rather than increasing recalcitrance in subsurface soils. The propagation of the 14C bomb spike into soils also illustrates the importance of historical permafrost and twentieth century warming in contemporary boreal soil respiration fluxes. Both 14C and total C simulation data also strongly suggest that boreal SOM need not be recalcitrant to accumulate; the strong role of soil temperature controls on boreal C accumulation at our modeling test site in Manitoba, Canada, indicates that carbon in the deep organic soil horizons is probably relatively labile and thus subject to perturbations that result from changing climatic conditions in the future. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2006

Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images

Over the past 50 years, Alaska has experienced a warming climate with longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration, and permafrost warming. Research from the Seward Peninsula and Kenai Peninsula has demonstrated a substantial landscape-level trend in the reduction of surface water and number of closed-basin ponds. We investigated whether this drying trend occurred at nine other regions throughout Alaska. One study region was from the Arctic Coastal Plain where depp permafrost occurs continuously across the landscape. The other eight study regions were from the boreal forest regions where discontinuous permafrost occurs. Mean annual precipitation across the study regions ranged from 100 to over 700 min yr-1. We used remotely sensed imagery from the 1950s to 2002 to inventory over 10,000 closed-basin ponds from at least three periods from this time span. We found a reduction in the area and number of shallow, closed-basin ponds for all boreal regions. In contrast, the Arctic Coastal Plain region had negligible change in the area of closed-basin ponds. Since the 1950s, surface water area of closed-basin ponds included in this analysis decreased by 31 to 4 percent, and the total number of closed-basin ponds surveyed within each study region decreased from 54 to 5 percent. There was a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature and potential evapotranspiration since the 1950s for all study regions. There was no significant trend in annual precipitation during the same period. The regional trend of shrinking ponds may be due to increased drainage as permafrost warms, or increased evapotranspiration during a warmer and extended growing season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2007

Olivine friction at the base of oceanic seismogenic zones

We investigate the strength and frictional behavior of olivine aggregates at temperatures and effective confining pressures similar to those at the base of the seismogenic zone on a typical ridge transform fault. Triaxial compression tests were conducted on dry olivine powder (grain size ???60 ??m) at effective confining pressures between 50 and 300 MPa (using Argon as a pore fluid), temperatures between 600??C and 1000??C, and axial displacement rates from 0.06 to 60 ??m/s (axial strain rates from 3 ?? 10-6 to 3 ?? 10-3 s-1). Yielding shows a negative pressure dependence, consistent with predictions for shear enhanced compaction and with the observation that samples exhibit compaction during the initial stages of the experiments. A combination of mechanical data and microstructural observations demonstrate that deformation was accommodated by frictional processes. Sample strengths were pressure-dependent and nearly independent of temperature. Localized shear zones formed in initially homogeneous aggregates early in the experiments. The frictional response to changes in loading rate is well described by rate and state constitutive laws, with a transition from velocity-weakening to velocity-strengthening at 1000??C. Microstructural observations and physical models indicate that plastic yielding of asperities at high temperatures and low axial strain rates stabilizes frictional sliding. Extrapolation of our experimental data to geologic strain rates indicates that a transition from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening occurs at approximately 600??C, consistent with the focal depths of earthquakes in the oceanic lithosphere. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2007

Measurements of storm and nonstorm circulation in the northern Adriatic: October 2002 Through April 2003

Fifteen bottom-mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers were deployed from October 2002 through April 2003 in the northern Adriatic Sea. Average transport from the portion of the Western Adriatic Current (WAC) along the Italian slope was 0.1470 ?? 0.0043 Sv, punctuated by bursts of more than twice that amount during storm events. Monthly means were calculated with times of strong wind-driven circulation excluded. These suggest a 2002/2003 seasonal separation consisting of October, December through February, and March through April. An extreme Po River flood influenced November conditions making seasonal categorization difficult. October generally had more kinetic energy and more vertical structure than other months, and near-inertial waves were more frequent in April and October. The Eastern Adriatic Current (EAC)/WAC (i.e. inflow/outflow) system was clearly present in the means for all months. The cyclonic gyre north of the Po River was present October through February. Generally, in the WAC, over 50% of kinetic energy came from vertically uniform monthly mean flows. Elsewhere, eddy kinetic energy was stronger than mean kinetic energy with 10-40% contributions for vertically uniform monthly mean flows, 40-60% for vertically uniform monthly varying flows, and 10-30% for vertically varying monthly varying flows. Mean currents for bora storms indicate enhancement of the EAC/WAC and the cyclonic northern gyre, a shift toward Kvarner Bay in EAC direction, a circulation null point south of the Po, and double-gyre bifurcation of flow at Istria. Strengthening of both the EAC and WAC also occurs during sirocco storms. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2007

Forces on stationary particles in near-bed turbulent flows

In natural flows, bed sediment particles are entrained and moved by the fluctuating forces, such as lift and drag, exerted by the overlying flow on the particles. To develop a better understanding of these forces and the relation of the forces to the local flow, the downstream and vertical components of force on near-bed fixed particles and of fluid velocity above or in front of them were measured synchronously at turbulence-resolving frequencies (200 or 500 Hz) in a laboratory flume. Measurements were made for a spherical test particle fixed at various heights above a smooth bed, above a smooth bed downstream of a downstream-facing step, and in a gravel bed of similarly sized particles as well as for a cubical test particle and 7 natural particles above a smooth bed. Horizontal force was well correlated with downstream velocity and not correlated with vertical velocity or vertical momentum flux. The standard drag formula worked well to predict the horizontal force, but the required value of the drag coefficient was significantly higher than generally used to model bed load motion. For the spheres, cubes, and natural particles, average drag coefficients were found to be 0.76, 1.36, and 0.91, respectively. For comparison, the drag coefficient for a sphere settling in still water at similar particle Reynolds numbers is only about 0.4. The variability of the horizontal force relative to its mean was strongly increased by the presence of the step and the gravel bed. Peak deviations were about 30% of the mean force for the sphere over the smooth bed, about twice the mean with the step, and 4 times it for the sphere protruding roughly half its diameter above the gravel bed. Vertical force correlated poorly with downstream velocity, vertical velocity, and vertical momentum flux whether measured over or ahead of the test particle. Typical formulas for shear-induced lift based on Bernoulli's principle poorly predict the vertical forces on near-bed particles. The measurements suggest that particle-scale pressure variations associated with turbulence are significant in the particle momentum balance. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2009

Tracking magma volume recovery at Okmok Volcano using GPS and an unscented kalman filter

Changes beneath a volcano can be observed through position changes in a GPS network, but distinguishing the source of site motion is not always straightforward. The records of continuous GPS sites provide a favorable data set for tracking magma migration. Dense campaign observations usually provide a better spatial picture of the overall deformation field, at the expense of an episodic temporal record. Combining these observations provides the best of both worlds. A Kalman filter provides a means for integrating discrete and continuous measurements and for interpreting subtle signals. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a nonlinear method for time‐dependent observations. We demonstrate the application of this technique to deformation data by applying it to GPS data collected at Okmok volcano. Seven years of GPS observations at Okmok are analyzed using a Mogi source model and the UKF. The deformation source at Okmok is relatively stable at 2.5 km depth below sea level, located beneath the center of the caldera, which means the surface deformation is caused by changes in the strength of the source. During the 7 years of GPS observations more than 0.5 m of uplift has occurred, a majority of that during the time period January 2003 to July 2004. The total volume recovery at Okmok since the last eruption in 1997 is ∼60–80%. The UKF allows us to solve simultaneously for the time‐dependence of the source strength and for the location without a priori information about the source. 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Characterization of Mars' seasonal caps using neutron spectroscopy

Mars' seasonal caps are characterized during Mars years 26 and 27 (April 2002 to January 2006) using data acquired by the 2001 Mars Odyssey Neutron Spectrometer. Time-dependent maps of the column abundance of seasonal CO 2 surface ice poleward of 60?? latitude in both hemispheres are determined from spatially deconvolved, epithermal neutron counting data. Sources of systematic error are analyzed, including spatial blurring by the spectrometer's broad footprint and the seasonal variations in the abundance of noncondensable gas at high southern latitudes, which are found to be consistent with results reported by Sprague et al. (2004, 2007). Corrections for spatial blurring are found to be important during the recession, when the column abundance of seasonal CO 2 ice has the largest latitude gradient. The measured distribution and inventory of seasonal CO 2 ice is compared to simulations by a general circulation model (GCM) calibrated using Viking lander pressure data, cap edge functions determined by thermal emission spectroscopy, and other nuclear spectroscopy data sets. On the basis of the amount of CO 2 cycled through the caps during years 26 and 27, the gross polar energy balance has not changed significantly since Viking. The distribution of seasonal CO 2 ice is longitudinally asymmetric: in the north, deposition rates of CO 2 ice are elevated in Acidalia, which is exposed to katabatic winds from Chasma Borealis; in the south, CO 2 deposition is highest near the residual cap. During southern recession, CO 2 ice is present longer than calculated by the GCM, which has implications for the local polar energy balance. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2009

Composition and variation of noise recorded at the Yellowknife Seismic Array, 1991-2007

We analyze seismic noise recorded on the 18 short-period, vertical component seismometers of the Yellowknife Seismic Array (YKA). YKA has an aperture of 23 km and is sited on cratonic lithosphere in an area with low cultural noise. These properties make it ideal for studying natural seismic noise at periods of 1-3 s. We calculated frequency-wave number spectra in this band for over 6,000 time windows that were extracted once per day for 17 years (1991-2007). Slowness analysis reveals a rich variety of seismic phases originating from distinct source regions: R g waves from the Great Slave Lake; L g waves from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans; and teleseismic P waves from the north Pacific and equatorial mid-Atlantic regions. The surface wave energy is generated along coastlines, while the body wave energy is generated at least in part in deep-water, pelagic regions. Surface waves tend to dominate at the longer periods and, just as in earthquake seismograms, L g is the most prominent arrival. Although the periods we study are slightly shorter than the classic double-frequency microseismic band of 4-10 s, the noise at YKA has clear seasonal behavior that is consistent with the ocean wave climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The temporal variation of most of the noise sources can be well fit using just two Fourier components: yearly and biyearly terms that combine to give a fast rise in microseismic power from mid-June through mid-October, followed by a gradual decline. The exception is the R g energy from the Great Slave Lake, which shows a sharp drop in noise power over a 2-week period in November as the lake freezes. The L g noise from the east has a small but statistically significant positive slope, perhaps implying increased ocean wave activity in the North Atlantic over the last 17 years. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2010

Sediment transport under wave groups: Relative importance between nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming

Sediment transport under nonlinear waves in a predominately sheet flow condition is investigated using a two-phase model. Specifically, we study the relative importance between the nonlinear waveshape and nonlinear boundary layer streaming on cross-shore sand transport. Terms in the governing equations because of the nonlinear boundary layer process are included in this one-dimensional vertical (1DV) model by simplifying the two-dimensional vertical (2DV) ensemble-averaged two-phase equations with the assumption that waves propagate without changing their form. The model is first driven by measured time series of near-bed flow velocity because of a wave group during the SISTEX99 large wave flume experiment and validated with the measured sand concentration in the sheet flow layer. Additional studies are then carried out by including and excluding the nonlinear boundary layer terms. It is found that for the grain diameter (0.24 mm) and high-velocity skewness wave condition considered here, nonlinear waveshape (e.g., skewness) is the dominant mechanism causing net onshore transport and nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect only causes an additional 36% onshore transport. However, for conditions of relatively low-wave skewness and a stronger offshore directed current, nonlinear boundary layer streaming plays a more critical role in determining the net transport. Numerical experiments further suggest that the nonlinear boundary layer streaming effect becomes increasingly important for finer grain. When the numerical model is driven by measured near-bed flow velocity in a more realistic surf zone setting, model results suggest nonlinear boundary layer processes may nearly double the onshore transport purely because of nonlinear waveshape. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗
USGS2011

The Sculptured Hills of the Taurus Highlands: Implications for the relative age of Serenitatis, basin chronologies and the cratering history of the Moon

New images from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera show the distribution and geological relations of the Sculptured Hills, a geological unit widespread in the highlands between the Serenitatis and Crisium basins. The Sculptured Hills shows knobby, undulating, radially textured, and plains-like morphologies and in many places is indistinguishable from the similarly knobby Alpes Formation, a facies of ejecta from the Imbrium basin. The new LROC image data show that the Sculptured Hills in the Taurus highlands is Imbrium ejecta and not directly related to the formation of the Serenitatis basin. This occurrence and the geological relations of this unit suggests that the Apollo 17 impact melts may not be not samples of the Serenitatis basin-forming impact, leaving their provenance undetermined and origin unexplained. If the Apollo 17 melt rocks are Serenitatis impact melt, up to half of the basin and large crater population of the Moon was created within a 30 Ma interval around 3.8 Ga in a global impact "cataclysm." Either interpretation significantly changes our view of the impact process and history of the Earth-Moon system. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2011

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS1997

A dynamic balance between magma supply and eruption rate at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

The dynamic balance between magma supply and vent output at Kilauea volcano is used to estimate both the volume of magma stored within Kilauea volcano and its magma supply rate. Throughout most of 1991 a linear decline in volume flux from the Kupaianaha vent on Kilauea's east rift zone was associated with a parabolic variation in the elevation of Kilauea's summit as vent output initially exceeded then lagged behind the magma supply to the volcano. The correspondence between summit elevation and tilt established with over 30 years of data provided daily estimates of summit elevation in terms of summit tilt. The minimum in the parabolic variation in summit tilt and elevation (or zero elevation change) occurs when the magma supply to the reservoir from below the volcano equals the magma output from the reservoir to the surface, so that the magma supply rate is given by vent flux on that day. The measurements of vent flux and tilt establish that the magma supply rate to Kilauea volcano on June 19, 1991, was 217,000±10,000 m 3 /d (or 0.079±0.004 km 3 /yr). This is close to the average eruptive rate of 0.08 km 3 /yr between 1958 and 1984. In addition, the predictable response of summit elevation and tilt to each east rift zone eruption near Puu Oo since 1983 shows that summit deformation is also a measure of magma reservoir pressure. Given this, the correlation between the elevation of the Puu Oo lava lake (4 km uprift of Kupaianaha and 18 km from the summit) and summit tilt provides an estimate for magma pressure changes corresponding to summit tilt changes. The ratio of the change in volume to the change in reservoir pressure ( dV / dP ) during vent activity may be determined by dividing the ratio of volume erupted to change in summit tilt ( dV / d tilt ) by the ratio of pressure change to change in summit tilt ( dP / d tilt ). This measure of dV / dP , when combined with laboratory measurements of the bulk modulus of tholeitic melt, provides an estimate of 240±50 km 3 for the volume of Kilauea's magma reservoir. This estimate is much larger than traditional estimates but consistent with seismic tomographic imaging and geophysical modeling of Kilauea's magma system.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2003

Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Sources and physical processes responsible for OH/H2O in the lunarsoil as revealed by the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M3)

Analysis of two absorption features near 3 μ m in the lunar reflectance spectrum, observed by the orbiting M 3 spectrometer and interpreted as being due to OH and H 2 O, is presented, and the results are used to discuss the processes producing these molecules. This analysis focuses on the dependence of the absorptions on lunar physical properties, including composition, illumination, latitude, and temperature. Solar wind proton-induced hydroxylation is proposed as the creation process, and its products could be a source for other reported types of hydrogen-rich material and water. The irregular and damaged fine-grained lunar soil seems especially adapted for trapping solar wind protons and forming OH owing to abundant dangling oxygen bonds. The M 3 data reveal that the strengths of the two absorptions are correlated and widespread, and both are correlated with lunar composition but in different ways. Feldspathic material seems richer in OH. These results seem to rule out water from the lunar interior and cometary infall as major sources. There appear to be correlations of apparent band strengths with time of day and lighting conditions. However, thermal emission from the Moon reduces the apparent strengths of the M 3 absorptions, and its removal is not yet completely successful. Further, many of the lunar physical properties are themselves intercorrelated, and so separating these dependencies on the absorptions is difficult, due to the incomplete M 3 data set. This process should also operate on other airless silicate surfaces, such as Mercury and Vesta, which will be visited by the Dawn spacecraft in mid-2011.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗
USGS2000

Ground deformation associated with the March 1996 earthquake swarm at Akutan volcano, Alaska, revealed by satellite radar interferometry

In March 1996 an intense swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (???3000 felt by local residents, Mmax = 5.1, cumulative moment of 2.7 ??1018 N m) beneath Akutan Island in the Aleutian volcanic arc, Alaska, produced extensive ground cracks but no eruption of Akutan volcano. Synthetic aperture radar interferograms that span the time of the swarm reveal complex island-wide deformation: the western part of the island including Akutan volcano moved upward, while the eastern part moved downward. The axis of the deformation approximately aligns with new ground cracks on the western part of the island and with Holocene normal faults that were reactivated during the swarm on the eastern part of the island. The axis is also roughly parallel to the direction of greatest compressional stress in the region. No ground movements greater than 2.83 cm were observed outside the volcano's summit caldera for periods of 4 years before or 2 years after the swarm. We modeled the deformation primarily as the emplacement of a shallow, east-west trending, north dipping dike plus inflation of a deep, Mogi-type magma body beneath the volcano. The pattern of subsidence on the eastern part of the island is poorly constrained. It might have been produced by extensional tectonic strain that both reactivated preexisting faults on the eastern part of the island and facilitated magma movement beneath the western part. Alternatively, magma intrusion beneath the volcano might have been the cause of extension and subsidence in the eastern part of the island. We attribute localized subsidence in an area of active fumaroles within the Akutan caldera, by as much as 10 cm during 1992-1993 and 1996-1998, to fluid withdrawal or depressurization of the shallow hydrothermal system. Copyright 2000 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Response of seismicity to Coulomb stress triggers and shadows of the 1999 Mw=7.6 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The correlation between static Coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that stress changes promote seismicity, a correlation that the Chi-Chi earthquake well exhibits. Several studies have deepened the argument by resolving stress changes on aftershock focal mechanisms, which removes the assumption that the aftershocks are optimally oriented for failure. Here one compares the percentage of planes on which failure is promoted after the main shock relative to the percentage beforehand. For Chi-Chi we find a 28% increase for thrust and an 18% increase for strike-slip mechanisms, commensurate with increases reported for other large main shocks. However, perhaps the chief criticism of static stress triggering is the difficulty in observing predicted seismicity rate decreases in the stress shadows, or sites of Coulomb stress decrease. Detection of sustained drops in seismicity rate demands a long catalog with a low magnitude of completeness and a high seismicity rate, conditions that are met at Chi-Chi. We find four lobes with statistically significant seismicity rate declines of 40-90% for 50 months, and they coincide with the stress shadows calculated for strike-slip faults, the dominant faulting mechanism. The rate drops are evident in uniform cell calculations, 100-month time series, and by visual inspection of the M ??? 3 seismicity. An additional reason why detection of such declines has proven so rare emerges from this study: there is a widespread increase in seismicity rate during the first 3 months after Chi-Chi, and perhaps many other main shocks, that might be associated with a different mechanism. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

A frictional population model of seismicity rate change

We study models of seismicity rate changes caused by the application of a static stress perturbation to a population of faults and discuss our results with respect to the model proposed by Dieterich (1994). These models assume distribution of nucleation sites (e.g., faults) obeying rate-state frictional relations that fail at constant rate under tectonic loading alone, and predicts a positive static stress step at time to will cause an immediate increased seismicity rate that decays according to Omori's law. We show one way in which the Dieterich model may be constructed from simple general idead, illustratted using numerically computed synthetic seismicity and mathematical formulation. We show that seismicity rate change predicted by these models (1) depend on the particular relationship between the clock-advanced failure and fault maturity, (2) are largest for the faults closest to failure at to, (3) depend strongly on which state evolution law faults obey, and (4) are insensitive to some types of population hetrogeneity. We also find that if individual faults fail repeatedly and populations are finite, at timescales much longer than typical aftershock durations, quiescence follows at seismicity rate increase regardless of the specific frictional relations. For the examined models the quiescence duration is comparable to the ratio of stress change to stressing rate ????/??,which occurs after a time comparable to the average recurrence interval of the individual faults in the population and repeats in the absence of any new load may pertubations; this simple model may partly explain observations of repeated clustering of earthquakes. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗