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Results for “Environmental Modeling & Assessment”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS1995

Coastal ecosystem decision‐support GIS: Functions and methodology

To solve coastal resource and environmental issues and handle complex spatial data and information effectively and efficiently, a coastal ecosystem decision‐support geographic information system (GIS) is being developed at the Southern Science Center of the U.S. National Biological Service. With three subsystems, natural resource management, environmental impact assessment, and data and information handling, respectively, the multifunctional system is designed to provide decision makers with tools to integrate and organize various environmental data and information for analytical modeling, spatial query, and graphic visualization. The multiple integration approach was employed in this system's development based on a commercial GIS, which includes subsystems integration, environmental data integration, decision‐support functions integration, and analytical model integration.

Marine Geodesy↗
USGS2001

Duck populations as indicators of landscape condition in the Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains is an important region for waterfowl production because of the abundance of shallow wetlands. The ecological significance of the region and impacts from intensive agriculture prompted the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to select it as one of the first areas for developing and evaluating ecological indicators of wetland condition. We examined hypothesized relations between indicators of landscape and wetland conditions and waterfowl abundance on 45 40 km2 study sites in North Dakota for 1995-96. Landscape condition was defined a priori as the ratio of cropland area to total upland area surrounding wetlands. Measures of waterfowl abundance included estimated numbers of breeding pairs (by species and total numbers) and , a species-specific correction factor which effectively adjusts breeding pair estimates for annual or area-related differences in pond size. Landscape indicators and waterfowl measures varied among regions. Results indicated that most areas in the Coteau region are of much higher quality for ducks than those in the Drift Plain, and areas in the Red River Valley are of the poorest quality for ducks. Regression models demonstrated the impact of agricultural development on breeding duck populations in the Prairie Pothole Region. The most consistent landscape indicators of waterfowl abundance were percent of cropland and grassland. Models were inconsistent among years and species. The potential biotic indicators of landscape and wetland condition examined here would be appropriate for temporal trend analyses, but because of inherent geographic variability would not be appropriate for single-year geographic trend analyses without more extensive evaluations to improve explanatory models

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment↗
USGS2012

Maps of estimated nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the southwestern United States

Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid representing about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamination and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explanatory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source and aquifer susceptibility conditions. Geochemical variables were not used in concentration predictions because they were not available for the entire study area. The models were calibrated to assess model accuracy on the basis of measured values. Only 2 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers in the study area was predicted to equal or exceed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water standard for nitrate as N (10 milligrams per liter), whereas 43 percent of the area was predicted to equal or exceed the standard for arsenic (10 micrograms per liter). Areas predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for nitrate include basins in central Arizona near Phoenix; the San Joaquin Valley, the Santa Ana Inland, and San Jacinto Basins of California; and the San Luis Valley of Colorado. Much of the area predicted to equal or exceed the drinking-water standard for arsenic is within a belt of basins along the western portion of the Basin and Range Physiographic Province that includes almost all of Nevada and parts of California and Arizona. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations are substantially lower than the drinking-water standards in much of the study area-about 93 percent of the area underlain by basin-fill aquifers was less than one-half the standard for nitrate as N (5.0 milligrams per liter), and 50 percent was less than one-half the standard for arsenic (5.0 micrograms per liter). The predicted concentrations and the improved understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of southwestern basin-fill aquifers to nitrate contamination and arsenic enrichment can be used by water managers as a qualitative tool to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources in the Southwest.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New ↗
USGS2025

Detection probabilities of Flathead Catfish in small Kansas impoundments

A primary challenge of Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris management is uncertainty associated with sampling strategies and resulting ambiguity in population-level information. Assessment of impoundment and environmental conditions that affect detection probability may aid in reducing sample variance and benefit inferences regarding changes to Flathead Catfish populations. We sampled eight small impoundments in Kansas (37–114 surface ha) using low-frequency electrofishing in summer, 2021. We revisited sites nine times over three months using an occupancy modeling framework to estimate the influence of impoundment and environmental conditions on detection probability of Flathead Catfish. We employed an information theoretic approach and ranked models built with impoundment as a random effect and three environmental variables predicted to influence detection of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments. Detection probability across all populations was 0.526 (SE = 0.020) and was influenced by water temperature, mean depth of the impoundment, and proportion of impoundment sampled. Generally, detection probability increased with all measured variables. The inclusion of detection probability in assessments of Flathead Catfish in small impoundments can inform interpretation of catch-related metrics. Further, variable detection suggests collection of multiple samples during a defined sampling period might be more suitable for characterizing populations than a single sample.

Kansas↗
USGS2018

Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) uses concepts from theoretical ecology to provide a powerful tool for quantitative estimates of population dynamics and extinction risks. However, conventional statistical PVA requires long-term data from every population of interest, whereas many species of concern exist in multiple isolated populations that are only monitored occasionally. We present a hierarchical multi-population viability analysis model that increases inference power from sparse data by sharing information among populations to assess extinction risks while accounting for incomplete detection and sampling biases with explicit observation and sampling sub-models. We present a case study in which we customized this model for historical population monitoring data (1985–2015) from federally threatened Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in the Great Basin, USA. Data were counts of fish captured during backpack electrofishing surveys from locations associated with 155 isolated populations. Some surveys (25%) included multi-pass removal sampling, which provided valuable information about capture efficiency. GIS and remote sensing were used to estimate August stream temperatures, peak flows, and riparian vegetation condition in each population each year. Field data were used to derive an annual index of nonnative trout densities. Results indicated that population growth rates were higher in colder streams and that nonnative trout reduced carrying capacities of native trout. Extinction risks increased with more environmental stochasticity and were also related to population extent, water temperatures, and nonnative densities. We developed a graphical user interface to interact with the fitted model results and to simulate future habitat scenarios and management actions to assess their influence on extinction risks in each population. Hierarchical multi-population viability analysis bridges the gap between site-level field observations and population-level processes, making effective use of existing datasets to support management decisions with robust estimates of population dynamics, extinction risks, and uncertainties.

Ecology↗
USGS2021

Multi‐constrained catchment scale optimization of groundwater abstraction using linear programming

Due to increasing water demands globally, freshwater ecosystems are under constant pressure. Groundwater resources, as the main source of accessible freshwater, are crucially important for irrigation worldwide. Over‐abstraction of groundwater leads to declines in groundwater levels; consequently, the groundwater inflow to streams decreases. The reduction in base flow and alteration of the stream flow regime can potentially have an adverse impact on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. A spatially distributed, coupled groundwater‐surface water model can simulate the impacts of groundwater abstraction on aquatic ecosystems. A constrained optimization algorithm and a simulation model in combination can provide an objective tool for the water practitioner to evaluate the interplay between economic benefits of groundwater abstractions and requirements to environmental flow. In this study, a holistic catchment‐scale groundwater abstraction optimization framework has been developed that allows for a spatially explicit optimization of groundwater abstraction, while fulfilling a pre‐defined maximum allowed reduction of stream flow (base flow (Q95) or median flow (Q50)) as constraint criteria for 1484 stream locations across the catchment. A balanced K‐Means clustering method was implemented to reduce the computational burden of the optimization. The model parameters and observation uncertainties calculated based on Bayesian linear theory allow for a risk assessment on the optimized groundwater abstraction values. The results from different optimization scenarios indicated that using the linear programming optimization algorithm in conjunction with integrated models provides valuable information for guiding the water practitioners in designing an effective groundwater abstraction plan with the consideration of environmental flow criteria important for the ecological status of the entire system.

Groundwater↗
USGS2026

Environmental and demographic mechanisms underlying population dynamics provide relative stability in an island songbird

Understanding demographic and ecological mechanisms underlying population dynamics is a key goal in population ecology and can inform effective conservation and management. Species may be well adapted to persist under normal ranges of environmental conditions, but increasingly novel conditions due to climate change may strain their demographic buffering mechanisms. Small isolated populations on islands are expected to be especially vulnerable to declines caused by novel environmental conditions, but the ecological drivers of population dynamics on islands are often unknown. We used an integrated population model to (1) examine ecological drivers of population growth and (2) assess global population trends of the Island Scrub-Jay ( Aphelocoma insularis ) from 2009 to 2019. Our results suggest that population size increased slightly over this interval despite declines during severe drought. We also found evidence that density dependence, precipitation, and food availability affected fecundity and the survival of nonbreeding individuals. Breeder survival was relatively stable and had a weak effect on population growth as expected for long-lived species. Overall, our results provide an optimistic snapshot for this species by demonstrating resilience to contemporary drought but also emphasize the species' potential vulnerability due to its small population size.

California↗
USGS2015

Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2011

Vulnerability of high-latitude soil organic carbon in North America to disturbance

This synthesis addresses the vulnerability of the North American high-latitude soil organic carbon (SOC) pool to climate change. Disturbances caused by climate warming in arctic, subarctic, and boreal environments can result in significant redistribution of C among major reservoirs with potential global impacts. We divide the current northern high-latitude SOC pools into (1) near-surface soils where SOC is affected by seasonal freeze-thaw processes and changes in moisture status, and (2) deeper permafrost and peatland strata down to several tens of meters depth where SOC is usually not affected by short-term changes. We address key factors (permafrost, vegetation, hydrology, paleoenvironmental history) and processes (C input, storage, decomposition, and output) responsible for the formation of the large high-latitude SOC pool in North America and highlight how climate-related disturbances could alter this pool's character and size. Press disturbances of relatively slow but persistent nature such as top-down thawing of permafrost, and changes in hydrology, microbiological communities, pedological processes, and vegetation types, as well as pulse disturbances of relatively rapid and local nature such as wildfires and thermokarst, could substantially impact SOC stocks. Ongoing climate warming in the North American high-latitude region could result in crossing environmental thresholds, thereby accelerating press disturbances and increasingly triggering pulse disturbances and eventually affecting the C source/sink net character of northern high-latitude soils. Finally, we assess postdisturbance feedbacks, models, and predictions for the northern high-latitude SOC pool, and discuss data and research gaps to be addressed by future research.

Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences↗
USGS2008

Presence-nonpresence surveys of golden-cheeked warblers: detection, occupancy and survey effort

Surveys to detect the presence or absence of endangered species may not consistently cover an area, account for imperfect detection or consider that detection and species presence at sample units may change within a survey season. We evaluated a detection?nondetection survey method for the federally endangered golden-cheeked warbler (GCWA) Dendroica chrysoparia. Three study areas were selected across the breeding range of GCWA in central Texas. Within each area, 28-36 detection stations were placed 200 m apart. Each detection station was surveyed nine times during the breeding season in 2 consecutive years. Surveyors remained up to 8 min at each detection station recording GCWA detected by sight or sound. To assess the potential influence of environmental covariates (e.g. slope, aspect, canopy cover, study area) on detection and occupancy and possible changes in occupancy and detection probabilities within breeding seasons, 30 models were analyzed. Using information-theoretic model selection procedures, we found that detection probabilities and occupancy varied among study areas and within breeding seasons. Detection probabilities ranged from 0.20 to 0.80 and occupancy ranged from 0.56 to 0.95. Because study areas with high detection probabilities had high occupancy, a conservative survey effort (erred towards too much surveying) was estimated using the lowest detection probability. We determined that nine surveys of 35 stations were needed to have estimates of occupancy with coefficients of variation <20%. Our survey evaluation evidently captured the key environmental variable that influenced bird detection (GCWA density) and accommodated the changes in GCWA distribution throughout the breeding season.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS2016

Smartphone-based distributed data collection enables rapid assessment of shorebird habitat suitability

Understanding and managing dynamic coastal landscapes for beach-dependent species requires biological and geological data across the range of relevant environments and habitats. It is difficult to acquire such information; data often have limited focus due to resource constraints, are collected by non-specialists, or lack observational uniformity. We developed an open-source smartphone application called iPlover that addresses these difficulties in collecting biogeomorphic information at piping plover ( Charadrius melodus ) nest sites on coastal beaches. This paper describes iPlover development and evaluates data quality and utility following two years of collection ( n = 1799 data points over 1500 km of coast between Maine and North Carolina, USA). We found strong agreement between field user and expert assessments and high model skill when data were used for habitat suitability prediction. Methods used here to develop and deploy a distributed data collection system have broad applicability to interdisciplinary environmental monitoring and modeling.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2013

A computer model to forecast wetland vegetation changes resulting from restoration and protection in coastal Louisiana

The coastal wetlands of Louisiana are a unique ecosystem that supports a diversity of wildlife as well as a diverse community of commercial interests of both local and national importance. The state of Louisiana has established a 5-year cycle of scientific investigation to provide up-to-date information to guide future legislation and regulation aimed at preserving this critical ecosystem. Here we report on a model that projects changes in plant community distribution and composition in response to environmental conditions. This model is linked to a suite of other models and requires input from those that simulate the hydrology and morphology of coastal Louisiana. Collectively, these models are used to assess how alternative management plans may affect the wetland ecosystem through explicit spatial modeling of the physical and biological processes affected by proposed modifications to the ecosystem. We have also taken the opportunity to advance the state-of-the-art in wetland plant community modeling by using a model that is more species-based in its description of plant communities instead of one based on aggregated community types such as brackish marsh and saline marsh. The resulting model provides an increased level of ecological detail about how wetland communities are expected to respond. In addition, the output from this model provides critical inputs for estimating the effects of management on higher trophic level species though a more complete description of the shifts in habitat.

Louisiana↗
USGS2008

Effects of Land-Use Changes and Ground-Water Withdrawals on Stream Base Flow, Pocono Creek Watershed, Monroe County, Pennsylvania

The Pocono Creek watershed drains 46.5 square miles in eastern Monroe County, Pa. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of Monroe County is expected to increase by 70 percent, which will result in substantial changes in land-use patterns. An evaluation of the effect of reduced recharge from land-use changes and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Delaware River Basin Commission as part of the USEPA?s Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management Initiative. Two models were used. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed by the USEPA provided areal recharge values for 2000 land use and projected full buildout land use. The USGS MODFLOW-2000 ground-water-flow model was used to estimate the effect of reduced recharge from changes in land use and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow. This report describes the ground-water-flow-model simulations. The Pocono Creek watershed is underlain by sedimentary rock of Devonian age, which is overlain by a veneer of glacial deposits. All water-supply wells are cased into and derive water from the bedrock. In the ground-water-flow model, the surficial geologic units were grouped into six categories: (1) moraine deposits, (2) stratified drift, (3) lake deposits, (4) outwash, (5) swamp deposits, and (6) undifferentiated deposits. The unconsolidated surficial deposits are not used as a source of water. The ground-water and surface-water systems are well connected in the Pocono Creek watershed. Base flow measured on October 13, 2004, at 27 sites for model calibration showed that streams gained water between all sites measured except in the lower reach of Pocono Creek. The ground-water-flow model included the entire Pocono Creek watershed. Horizontally, the modeled area was divided into a 53 by 155 cell grid with 6,060 active cells. Vertically, the modeled area was discretized into four layers. Layers 1 and 2 represented the unconsolidated surficial deposits where they are present and bedrock where the surficial deposits are absent. Layer 3 represented shallow bedrock and was 200 ft (feet) thick. Layer 4 represented deep bedrock and was 300 ft thick. A total of 873 cells representing streams were assigned to layer 1. Recharge rates for model calibration were provided by the USEPA SWAT model for 2000 land-use conditions. Recharge rates for 2000 for the 29 subwatersheds in the SWAT model ranged from 6.11 to 22.66 inches per year. Because the ground-water-flow model was calibrated to base-flow data collected on October 13, 2004, the 2000 recharge rates were multiplied by 1.18 so the volume of recharge was equal to the volume of streamflow measured at the mouth of Pocono Creek. During model calibration, adjustments were made to aquifer hydraulic conductivity and streambed conductance. Simulated base flows and hydraulic heads were compared to measured base flows and hydraulic heads using the root mean squared error (RMSE) between measured and simulated values. The RMSE of the calibrated model for base flow was 4.7 cubic feet per second for 27 locations, and the RMSE for hydraulic heads for 15 locations was 35 ft. The USEPA SWAT model was used to provide areal recharge values for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions. The change in recharge ranged from an increase of 37.8 percent to a decrease of 60.8 percent. The ground-water-flow model was used to simulate base flow for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions using steady-state simulations. The decrease in simulated base flow ranged from 3.8 to 63 percent at the streamflow-measurement sites. Simulated base flow at streamflow-gaging station Pocono Creek above Wigwam Run near Stroudsburg, Pa. (01441495), decreased 25 percent. This is in general agreement with the SWAT model, which estimated a 30.6-percent loss in base flow at the streamflow-gaging station.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Prediction uncertainty and data worth assessment for groundwater transport times in an agricultural catchment

Uncertainties about the age of base-flow discharge can have serious implications for the management of degraded environmental systems where subsurface pathways, and the ongoing release of pollutants that accumulated in the subsurface during past decades, dominate the water quality signal. Numerical groundwater models may be used to estimate groundwater return times and base-flow ages and thus predict the time required for stakeholders to see the results of improved agricultural management practices. However, the uncertainty inherent in the relationship between (i) the observations of atmospherically-derived tracers that are required to calibrate such models and (ii) the predictions of system age that the observations inform have not been investigated. For example, few if any studies have assessed the uncertainty of numerically-simulated system ages or evaluated the uncertainty reductions that may result from the expense of collecting additional subsurface tracer data. In this study we combine numerical flow and transport modeling of atmospherically-derived tracers with prediction uncertainty methods to accomplish four objectives. First, we show the relative importance of head, discharge, and tracer information for characterizing response times in a uniquely data rich catchment that includes 266 age-tracer measurements (SF 6 , CFCs, and 3 H) in addition to long term monitoring of water levels and stream discharge. Second, we calculate uncertainty intervals for model-simulated base-flow ages using both linear and non-linear methods, and find that the prediction sensitivity vector used by linear first-order second-moment methods results in much larger uncertainties than non-linear Monte Carlo methods operating on the same parameter uncertainty. Third, by combining prediction uncertainty analysis with multiple models of the system, we show that data-worth calculations and monitoring network design are sensitive to variations in the amount of water leaving the system via stream discharge and irrigation withdrawals. Finally, we demonstrate a novel model-averaged computation of potential data worth that can account for these uncertainties in model structure.

Maryland↗
USGS2023

Comprehensive inventory of habitat assessment and evaluation datasets to support Deepwater Horizon mesophotic and deep benthic communities

This report is part of the NOAA Mesophotic and Deep Benthic Communities (MDBC) Series of publications that share the results of work conducted by the Deepwater Horizon MDBC restoration projects. The 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill was an unprecedented event. Approximately 3.2 million barrels of oil were released into the deep ocean over nearly three months. The plume of oil moved throughout the water column, formed surface slicks that cumulatively covered an area the size of Virginia, and washed oil onto at least 1,300 miles of shoreline habitats. More than 770 square miles (2,000 square kilometers) of deep benthic habitat surrounding the Deepwater Horizon wellhead and 4-square miles of the Pinnacles mesophotic reef complex, located at the edge of the continental shelf, were injured by the oil spill. Under the Oil Pollution Act, state and federal natural resource trustees conducted a Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA). The Trustees assessed damages, quantifying the unprecedented injuries to natural resources and lost services. They also developed a programmatic restoration plan to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost services. In April 2016, a settlement was finalized that included up to $8.8 billion in funding for the Deepwater Horizon Trustees to restore the natural resource injuries caused by the oil spill as described in their programmatic restoration plan, Final Programmatic Damage Assessment and Restoration Plan and Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement. The Deepwater Horizon Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group is responsible for restoring natural resources and their services within the Open Ocean Restoration Area that were injured by the oil spill. The Open Ocean Trustees include NOAA, Department of the Interior, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and U.S. Department of Agriculture. In 2019, the Open Ocean Trustee Implementation Group committed more than $126 million to implement four restoration projects to address the injury to MDBC. The MDBC projects are: mapping, Ground-truthing, and Predictive Habitat Modeling; Habitat Assessment and Evaluation; Coral Propagation Technique Development; and Active Management and Protection. NOAA and the Department of the Interior are implementing the projects, in cooperation with a range of partners, over eight years. Together, the projects take a phased approach to meet the challenges involved in restoring deep-sea habitats. Challenges to restoration include a limited scientific understanding of these communities, limited experience with restoration at the depths at which these communities occur, and remote locations that limit accessibility. More information about Deepwater Horizon restoration and the MDBC restoration projects is available at: www.gulfspillrestoration.noaa.gov.

Gulf of Mexico↗
USGS1995

Handbook of ecotoxicology

The Handbook of Ecotoxicology offers 34 chapters with contributions from over 50 selected international experts. The book is divided into four major sections: I. Quantifying and Measuring Ecotoxicological Effects, II. Contaminant Sources and Effects, III. Case Histories and Ecosystem Surveys, and IV. Methods for Making Estimates and Predictability in Ecotoxicology. Concepts and methodology are presented for many types of aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity test protocols for both controlled and field assessments. Chapters are offered on such diverse topics as sediment and soil ecotoxicity, landscape indicators, biomonitoring, and use of current bioindicators. The roles of deforestation and global warming, pathogens and disease in ecotoxicology, abiotic factors, urban runoff, predictive ecotoxicology, population modeling, and restoration ecology are discussed. This book was designed to serve as a reference book for students entering the fields of ecotoxicology, aquatic toxicology, terrestrial wildlife toxicology, and other environmental sciences. Many portions of this handbook will serve as a convenient reference text for established investigators, resource managers, and those involved in risk assessment and risk management within regulatory agencies and the private sector.

Book↗
USGS2022

Loss of street trees predicted to cause 6000 L/tree increase in leaf-on stormwater runoff for Great Lakes urban sewershed

Urban forests are recognized as a nature-based solution for stormwater management. This study assessed the underlying processes and extent of runoff reduction due to street trees with a paired-catchment experiment conducted in two sewersheds of Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. Computer models are flexible, fast, and low-cost options to generalize and assess the hydrologic processes determined in field studies. A state-of-the-art, public-domain model, which explicitly simulates urban tree hydrology, i-Tree Hydro, was used to simulate the paired-catchment experiment, and results from field observations and simulation predictions were compared to assess model validity and suitability as per conditions in the broader Great Lakes basin. Model parameters were aligned with observed conditions using automatic and manual calibration. Model performance metrics were used to quantify the weekly performance of calibration and to validate predictions. Those calibration metrics differed substantially between the two periods simulated, but most calibration metrics remained positive, indicating the model was not fitting only the period used for calibration. Predicted avoided runoff for a five-month leaf-on period was 64 L/m2 of canopy, 4 % lower than the field-estimated avoided runoff of 66 L/m2 of canopy. Interception was the most directly comparable process between the model and field observations. Based on 5 storms sampled, field estimation of precipitation intercepted and retained on trees averaged 63 % and ranged from 22 % to 81 %, while model estimation averaged 61 % and ranged from 36 % to 99 %. This model was able to fit predictions to observed catchment discharge but required extensive manual calibration to do so. The i-Tree Hydro model predicted avoided runoff comparable with the field study and earlier assessments. Additional field studies in similar settings are needed to confirm findings and improve transferability to other tree species and environmental settings.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2016

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise F ST ) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and F ST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and F ST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes ( N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

Columbia River Basin↗