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A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Scientific Investigations Report

Factors associated with extirpation of sage-grouse

Geographic ranges of Greater Sage-Grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( C. minimus ) have contracted across large areas in response to habitat loss and detrimental land uses. However, quantitative analyses of the environmental factors most closely associated with range contraction have been lacking, results of which could be highly relevant to conservation planning. Consequently, we analyzed differences in 22 environmental variables between areas of former range (extirpated range), and areas still occupied by the two species (occupied range). Fifteen of the 22 variables, representing a broad spectrum of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic conditions, had mean values that were significantly different between extirpated and occupied ranges. Best discrimination between extirpated and occupied ranges, using discriminant function analysis (DFA), was provided by five of these variables: sagebrush area ( Artemisia spp.); elevation; distance to transmission lines; distance to cellular towers; and land ownership. A DFA model containing these five variables correctly classified 80% of sage-grouse historical locations to extirpated and occupied ranges. We used this model to estimate the similarity between areas of occupied range with areas where extirpation has occurred. Areas currently occupied by sage-grouse, but with high similarity to extirpated range, may not support persistent populations. Model estimates showed that areas of highest similarity were concentrated in the smallest, disjunct portions of occupied range and along range peripheries. Large areas in the eastern portion of occupied range also had high similarity with extirpated range. By contrast, areas of lowest similarity with extirpated range were concentrated in the largest, most contiguous portions of occupied range that dominate Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and western Wyoming. Our results have direct relevance to conservation planning. We describe how results can be used to identify strongholds and spatial priorities for effective landscape management of sage-grouse.

Book chapter

A review of supervised learning methods for classifying animal behavioural states from environmental features

Accurately predicting behavioural modes of animals in response to environmental features is important for ecology and conservation. Supervised learning (SL) methods are increasingly common in animal movement ecology for classifying behavioural modes. However, few examples exist of applying SL to classify polytomous animal behaviour from environmental features especially in the context of millions of animal observations. We review SL methods (weighted k -nearest neighbours; neural nets; random forests; and boosted classification trees with XGBoost) for classifying polytomous animal behaviour from environmental predictors. We also describe tuning parameter selection and assessment strategies, approaches for visualizing relationships between predictors and class outputs, and computational considerations. We demonstrate these methods by predicting three categories of risk to bald eagles from colliding with wind turbines using, as predictors, 12 environmental state features associated with 1.7 million GPS telemetry data points from 57 eagles. Of the SL methods we considered, XGBoost yielded the most accurate model with 86.2% classification accuracy and pairwise-averaged area under the ROC curve of 90.6. Computational time of XGBoost scaled better to large data than any other SL method. We also show how SHAP values integrated in the R package ( xgboost ) facilitate investigation of variable relationships and importance. For big data applications, XGBoost appears to provide superior classification accuracy and computational efficiency. Our results suggest XGBoost should be considered as an early modelling option in situations where the intent is to classify millions of animal behaviour observations from environmental predictors and to understand relationships between those predictors and movement behaviours. We also offer a tutorial to assist researchers in implementing this method.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution

Comparing SMART and ELECTRE methods for multi-criteria decision analysis: A case study evaluating conservation strategies

Tradeoffs are part of the inherent challenge of making decisions. Defaulting to a prevalent method can mask methodological variation and potential improvement in decision quality. We applied and compared methods for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in real-world environmental planning. Decision makers at a global conservation organization formed teams to review and prioritize the allocation of resources across a set of existing strategies across seven teams. Each team evaluated and rated strategies based on a common scale composed of weighted objectives and criteria. Sensitivity analysis included implementing two different MCDA methods, varying strategy ratings, and using two different criteria weighting techniques. The MCDA methods were SMART (Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique) and ELECTRE (ELimination and Choice Expressing The REality). We tested user satisfaction between methods, overall rankings between methods, and whether MCDA improved the decision-making process. The methods did not differ in most comparisons, although participants were more likely to use the SMART method in future tradeoff decisions. We found evidence of rank correlation between methods. Lastly, the teams’ final recommendations were consistent with MCDA results. This study highlights the advantages and disadvantages of MCDA in real-world applications.

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Fisheries sustainability: Perceptions from the ninth World Fisheries Congress

The World Fisheries Congress (WFC) is one of the largest global gatherings of fisheries professionals and scientists. It is held every 4 years with the purpose of sharing ideas and perspectives about new research, emerging issues, scientific breakthroughs, and governance related to fisheries science, industry, conservation, and management. The ninth WFC, held in Seattle (USA) in 2024, focused on fish and fisheries at the food–water–energy nexus and understanding fisheries sustainability from diverse perspectives. Fisheries sustainability is a goal shared globally that faces challenges across spatial scales from the implementation of good governance and accelerating anthropogenic pressures. Leveraging the unique opportunity to gain insights from WFC delegates, this study assesses perceptions of fisheries sustainability from diverse representation across career stage, geo­graphic region, and professional and cultural backgrounds. Survey results show that respondents (i.e., WFC delegates who chose to take the survey) perceived limited progress towards fisheries sustainability, often with a variable and unclear definition of what sustainability entails. Fish were primarily valued from a provisioning resource perspective, with environmental aspects of fisheries management and conservation seen as the area with the most progress and the greatest needs, rather than economic or social dimensions of fisheries.

Fisheries

LANDFIRE 2010 - updated data to support wildfire and ecological management

Wildfire is a global phenomenon that affects human populations and ecosystems. Wildfire effects occur at local to global scales impacting many people in different ways (Figure 1). Ecological concerns due to land use, fragmentation, and climate change impact natural resource use, allocation, and conservation. Access to consistent and current environmental data is a constant challenge, yet necessary for understanding the complexities of wildfire and ecological management. Data products and tools from the LANDFIRE Program help decision-makers to clarify problems and identify possible solutions when managing fires and natural resources. LANDFIRE supports the reduction of risk from wildfire to human lives and property, monitoring of fire danger, prediction of fire behavior on active incidents, and assessment of fire severity and impacts on natural systems [1] [2] [3]. LANDFIRE products are unique in that they are nationally consistent and provide the only complete geospatial dataset describing vegetation and wildland fuel information for the entire U.S. As such, LANDFIRE data are useful for many ecological applications [3]. For example, LANDFIRE data were recently integrated into a decision-support system for resource management and conservation decision-making along the Appalachian Trail. LANDFIRE is a joint effort between the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Wildland Fire, U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management, and The Nature Conservancy. To date, seven versions of LANDFIRE data have been released, with each successive version improving the quality of the data, adding additional features, and/or updating the time period represented by the data. The latest version, LANDFIRE 2010 (LF 2010), released mid-2013, represents circa 2010 landscape conditions and succeeds LANDFIRE 2008 (LF 2008), which represented circa 2008 landscape conditions. LF 2010 used many of the same processes developed for the LF 2008 effort [3]. Ongoing refinement of the LANDFIRE vegetation and fuel data is necessary to improve the quality and usability of the data and to capture landscape disturbance. LANDFIRE relies on Landsat multi-spectral imagery to produce and update vegetation and fuel data. The deep Landsat archive provides data needed for vegetation classification, change analysis, and historical disturbance characterization, for which LANDFIRE has used more than 24,000 image scenes since the program’s inception. In addition, LF 2010 used airborne and spaceborne lidar, and spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to map vegetation structure in areas where ground-based field information was lacking, including Alaska and U.S.-affiliated islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. The mapping of insular areas is new for the 2010 data release; previous versions of LANDFIRE were limited to the conterminous U.S., Alaska, and Hawaii.

Earthzine

Comparative demographics of a Hawaiian forest bird community

Estimates of demographic parameters such as survival and reproductive success are critical for guiding management efforts focused on species of conservation concern. Unfortunately, reliable demographic parameters are difficult to obtain for any species, but especially for rare or endangered species. Here we derived estimates of adult survival and recruitment in a community of Hawaiian forest birds, including eight native species (of which three are endangered) and two introduced species at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawaiʻi. Integrated population models (IPM) were used to link mark–recapture data (1994–1999) with long-term population surveys (1987–2008). To our knowledge, this is the first time that IPM have been used to characterize demographic parameters of a whole avian community, and provides important insights into the life history strategies of the community. The demographic data were used to test two hypotheses: 1) arthropod specialists, such as the ‘Akiapōlā‘au Hemignathus munroi , are ‘slower’ species characterized by a greater relative contribution of adult survival to population growth, i.e. lower fecundity and increased adult survival; and 2) a species’ susceptibility to environmental change, as reflected by its conservation status, can be predicted by its life history traits. We found that all species were characterized by a similar population growth rate around one, independently of conservation status, origin (native vs non-native), feeding guild, or life history strategy (as measured by ‘slowness’), which suggested that the community had reached an equilibrium. However, such stable dynamics were achieved differently across feeding guilds, as demonstrated by a significant increase of adult survival and a significant decrease of recruitment along a gradient of increased insectivory, in support of hypothesis 1. Supporting our second hypothesis, we found that slower species were more vulnerable species at the global scale than faster ones. The possible causes and conservation implications of these patterns are discussed.

Hawaii

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long-term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist-accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density-impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub-optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non-stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade-offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Pathways to strategic communication for biodiversity conservation: Response to “Hearing ourselves (and acting in consequence): A commentary on Bekessy et al. from a bird-handling environmental education perspective”

Central to discussions about the merits of ecosystem services as a communication strategy is the degree to which it represents a strategic and effective approach to advance biodiversity conservation. There is increasing recognition that many conservation communication efforts can be more strategic (e.g. Kusmanoff et al. 2016).

Biological Conservation

Conservation easements and coastal armoring: Protecting sea turtle nesting habitat through property ownership

To determine the relationship between the intent of owners of homes located near sea turtle nesting beaches in the state of Florida to engage in coastal conservation easements (CCE), the theory of planned behavior (TPB), environmental identity (EI) and relevant demographics were analyzed. As CCEs are a novel application of a proven conservation tool, a statewide survey was administered to 1274 property owners living within a mile of a protected section of sea turtle nesting habitat (e.g. state park, preserve, wildlife refuge). Multiple linear regression showed coastal property owners were more likely to engage with a CCE if they believed they had the ability and opportunity, held positive attitudes about entering into a CCE, and identified more favorably with potential CCE motivators for property owners. These motivators include receiving assistance from a conservation organization to manage their beachfront land; conserving beach habitat; obtaining annual tax deductions; and trusting the organization administering a CCE. Knowing these motivators and demographics of coastal property owners can help aid coastal land conservationists in crafting strategies to conserve sea turtle nesting beaches.

Florida

The global environmental agenda urgently needs a semantic web of knowledge

Progress in key social-ecological challenges of the global environmental agenda (e.g., climate change, biodiversity conservation, Sustainable Development Goals) is hampered by a lack of integration and synthesis of existing scientific evidence. Facing a fast-increasing volume of data, information remains compartmentalized to pre-defined scales and fields, rarely building its way up to collective knowledge. Today's distributed corpus of human intelligence, including the scientific publication system, cannot be exploited with the efficiency needed to meet current evidence synthesis challenges; computer-based intelligence could assist this task. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches underlain by semantics and machine reasoning offer a constructive way forward, but depend on greater understanding of these technologies by the science and policy communities and coordination of their use. By labelling web-based scientific information to become readable by both humans and computers, machines can search, organize, reuse, combine and synthesize information quickly and in novel ways. Modern open science infrastructure—i.e., public data and model repositories—is a useful starting point, but without shared semantics and common standards for machine actionable data and models, our collective ability to build, grow, and share a collective knowledge base will remain limited. The application of semantic and machine reasoning technologies by a broad community of scientists and decision makers will favour open synthesis to contribute and reuse knowledge and apply it toward decision making.

Environmental Evidence

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.

Conservation Biology

6&6: A transdisciplinary approach to art-science collaboration

Despite an historical connection between the arts and sciences, in the past century, the two disciplines have been greatly siloed. However, there is a renewed interest in collaboration across the arts and sciences to support conservation practice by understanding and communicating complex environmental, social, and cultural challenges in novel ways. 6&6 was created as a transdisciplinary art–science initiative to promote a deeper appreciation of the Sonoran Desert. Six artists and six scientists were paired to create work that explored conservation issues in the Sonoran Desert and the Gulf of California. In-depth interviews were conducted with the artists and scientists throughout the 4-year initiative to understand the impact of 6&6 on their personal and professional behaviors and outlook. The findings from this case study reveal the role that intensive, place-based, and transdisciplinary art–science programs can play in shaping narratives to better communicate the patterns and processes of nature and human–environment interactions.

Arizona, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Cal

Conservation and management of crayfishes: Lessons from Pennsylvania

North America's crayfish fauna is diverse, ecologically important, and highly threatened. Unfortunately, up‐to‐date information is scarce, hindering conservation and management efforts. In Pennsylvania and nearby states, recent efforts allowed us to determine the conservation status of several native crayfishes and develop management strategies for those species. Due to rarity and proximity to urban centers and introduced (exotic) crayfishes, Cambarus (Puncticambarus) sp., an undescribed member of the Cambarus acuminatus complex, is critically imperiled in Pennsylvania and possibly range‐wide. Orconectes limosus is more widespread; however, recent population losses have been substantial, especially in Pennsylvania, and northern Maryland, where its range has declined (retreated eastward) by greater than 200 km. Introduced congeners likely played a major role in those losses. Although extirpated from some areas, Cambarus bartonii bartonii remains widespread and is not an immediate conservation concern. In light of these findings, the role of barriers (e.g., dams), environmental protection, educational programs, and regulations in preventing crayfish invasions and conserving native crayfishes is discussed, and management initiatives centered on those factors are presented. The need for methods to eliminate exotics and monitor natives is highlighted. Although tailored to a specific regional fauna, these ideas have broad applicability and would benefit many North American crayfishes.

Pennsylvania

Decision support for aquatic restoration based on species-specific responses to disturbance

Disturbances to aquatic habitats are not uniformly distributed within the Great Lakes and acute effects can be strongest in nearshore areas where both landscape and within lake effects can have strong influence. Furthermore, different fish species respond to disturbances in different ways. A means to identify and evaluate locations and extent of disturbances that affect fish is needed throughout the Great Lakes. We used partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis to separate “natural” effects on nearshore assemblages from disturbance effects. Species-specific quadratic models of fish abundance as functions of in-lake disturbance or watershed-derived disturbance were developed separately for each of 35 species and lakewide predictions mapped for Lake Erie. Most responses were unimodal and more species decreased in abundance with increasing watershed disturbance than increased. However, eight species increased in abundance with current in-lake disturbance conditions. Optimum Yellow Perch ( Perca flavescens ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values less than the gradient mean, but decreased continuously from minimum watershed disturbance to higher values. Bands of optimum in-lake conditions occurred throughout the eastern and western portions of the Lake Erie nearshore zone; some areas were less disturbed than desirable. However, watershed-derived disturbance conditions were generally poor for Yellow Perch throughout the lake. In contrast, optimum Smallmouth Bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) abundance occurred at in-lake disturbance values greater than the gradient mean and continuously increased with increasing watershed disturbance. Smallmouth Bass responses to disturbance indicated that most of the nearshore zone was less disturbed than is desirable and were most abundant in areas that the Yellow Perch response indicated were highly disturbed. Mapping counts of species response models that agreed on the disturbance level in each spatial unit of the nearshore zone showed a fine-scale mosaic of areas in which habitat restoration may benefit many or few species. This tool may assist managers in prioritizing conservation and restoration efforts and evaluating environmental conditions that may be improved.

Great Lakes

Ecological interfaces between land and flowing water: Themes and trends in riparian research and management

This paper provides an overview of past, present and future themes for research and management of riparian zones, often relating to papers within this Wetlands Special Feature. Riparian research expanded in the United States around 1980 with themes that recognized (1) damage from excessive livestock, or (2) damage from river damming and diversion, and (3) the beneficial capacity of riparian buffers to intercept and assimilate nutrients and other water contaminants. Research expanded globally in the 1990s, with themes including (4) plant life history requirements and (5) reliance on fluvial geomorphic dynamics that enable riparian rejuvenation. Resource managers recognized that riparian areas provide (6) rich wildlife habitats (7) along with valued ecosystem services, (8) which encouraged conservation and restoration initiatives, (9) including environmental flow regimes. Floodplains are (10) vulnerable to invasive plants and management has included biocontrol such as for Tamarix in the American Southwest. Into the twenty-first century, (11) climate change is advancing, and riparian ecosystems may be especially impacted due to the compound challenges from increasing water demand and declining summer flows. As an emerging opportunity, (12) while reservoirs submerge floodplain vegetation, reservoir deltas may support compensatory riparian wetlands. (13) Studies increasingly utilize remote sensing tools including satellite imagery, LiDAR and unmanned aircraft systems, and (14) the coordination of large data sets invites digital ecology, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Since riparian zones are centres for human activities, (15) there are opportunities for citizen science, social media and internet applications, which will increasingly democratize riparian research and management.

Wetlands

A reply to Iversen et al.'s comment “Monitoring of animal abundance by environmental DNA - An increasingly obscure perspective”

We appreciate the conversation put forward by Iversen et al. (2015) in their response to our article “Quantification of eDNA shedding rates from invasive bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ” in the 2015 environmental DNA special issue of Biological Conservation. We agree with Iversen et al.'s concern about overly optimistic conclusions that could be drawn from the current eDNA literature. One hope for eDNA technology is that it can be used in estimating abundance or population density. Evidence suggests that eDNA measurements correlate with total biomass (Takahara et al., 2012) rather than abundance. We demonstrate a similar relationship between biomass and eDNA shedding rates. Nevertheless, without field testing of these methods and specific survey protocols, we cannot make strong conclusions regarding the technique's field applicability. In our manuscript, we attempted to point out areas in which more research is needed.

Biological Conservation

Relating nutrient and herbicide fate with landscape features and characteristics of 15 subwatersheds in the Choptank River watershed

Excess nutrients and agrochemicals from non-point sources contribute to water quality impairment in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and their loading rates are related to land use, agricultural practices, hydrology, and pollutant fate and transport processes. In this study, monthly baseflow stream samples from 15 agricultural subwatersheds of the Choptank River in Maryland USA (2005 to 2007) were characterized for nutrients, herbicides, and herbicide transformation products. High-resolution digital maps of land use and forested wetlands were derived from remote sensing imagery. Examination of landscape metrics and water quality data, partitioned according to hydrogeomorphic class, provided insight into the fate, delivery, and transport mechanisms associated with agricultural pollutants. Mean Nitrate-N concentrations (4.9 mg/L) were correlated positively with percent agriculture (R 2 = 0.56) and negatively with percent forest (R 2 = 0.60). Concentrations were greater ( p = 0.0001) in the well-drained upland (WDU) hydrogeomorphic region than in poorly drained upland (PDU), reflecting increased denitrification and reduced agricultural land use intensity in the PDU landscape due to the prevalence of hydric soils. Atrazine and metolachlor concentrations (mean 0.29 μg/L and 0.19 μg/L) were also greater ( p = 0.0001) in WDU subwatersheds than in PDU subwatersheds. Springtime herbicide concentrations exhibited a strong, positive correlation (R 2 = 0.90) with percent forest in the WDU subwatersheds but not in the PDU subwatersheds. In addition, forested riparian stream buffers in the WDU were more prevalent than in the PDU where forested patches are typically not located near streams, suggesting an alternative delivery mechanism whereby volatilized herbicides are captured by the riparian forest canopy and subsequently washed off during rainfall. Orthophosphate, CIAT (6-chloro- N -(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine), CEAT (6-chloro- N -ethyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine), and MESA (2-[(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl) (2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)amino]-2-oxoethanesulfonic acid) were also analyzed. These findings will assist efforts in targeting implementation of conservation practices to the most environmentally-critical areas within watersheds to achieve water quality improvements in a cost-effective manner.

Delaware, Maryland