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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Living on the edge: Multi-scale analyses of bird habitat use in coastal marshes of Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA

Coastal marsh loss, combined with expected sea-level rise, will cause inundation and extensive shifts to vegetation and salinity regimes that may affect the bird species dependent on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Within coastal marsh habitats, birds provide key targets for coastal management goals. However, limited information on bird-habitat relationships within coastal marshes inhibits the development of restoration projects targeted to bird species. We surveyed birds bi-monthly within Barataria Basin, LA from July 2014 to December 2015 to compare their use between fresh and saline coastal marshes. Additionally, we examined habitat use at finer spatial scales to assess preference for marsh edge microhabitats. Edge habitat supported 1.8 times more bird species (guild) richness than emergent and open water habitat. We concluded that future modelling efforts would be improved if models incorporate edge effects for birds in coastal marshes that extend 20 m from emergent vegetation into open water, with a reduced effect if marsh types convert from fresh to saline. Our data will be useful to simulate the effects of changes in marsh type, area, and edge on habitat quality for birds in coastal Louisiana and will inform habitat restoration and management decisions aimed at optimizing bird use.

Louisiana↗
USGS2015

Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics

Prediction of coastal vulnerability is of increasing concern to policy makers, coastal managers and other stakeholders. Coastal regions and barrier islands along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are subject to frequent, large storms, whose waves and storm surge can dramatically alter beach morphology, threaten infrastructure, and impact local economies. Given that precise forecasts of regional hazards are challenging, because of the complex interactions between processes on many scales, a range of probable geomorphic change in response to storm conditions is often more helpful than deterministic predictions. Site-specific probabilistic models of coastal change are reliable because they are formulated with observations so that local factors, of potentially high influence, are inherent in the model. The development and use of predictive tools such as Bayesian Networks in response to future storms has the potential to better inform management decisions and hazard preparation in coastal communities. We present several Bayesian Networks designed to hindcast distinct morphologic changes attributable to the Nor'Ida storm of 2009, at Fire Island, New York. Model predictions are informed with historical system behavior, initial morphologic conditions, and a parameterized treatment of wave climate. We refine a preliminary Bayesian Network by 1) increasing model experience through additional observations, 2) including anthropogenic modification history, and 3) replacing parameterized wave impact values with maximum run-up elevation. Further, we develop and train a pair of generalized models with an additional dataset encompassing a different storm event, which expands the observations beyond our hindcast objective. We compare the skill of the generalized models against the Nor'Ida specific model formulation, balancing the reduced skill with an expectation of increased transferability. Results of Nor'Ida hindcasts ranged in skill from 0.37 to 0.51 and accuracy of 65.0 to 81.9%.

New York↗
USGS2018

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landwards in response to rising seas. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate migration. Low‐lying urban areas can constrain migration and lead to wetland loss (i.e. coastal squeeze), especially where existing wetlands cannot keep pace with rising seas via vertical adjustments. In many estuaries, there is a pressing need to identify landward migration corridors and better quantify the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze. We quantified and compared the area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and the area where urban development is expected to prevent migration for 39 estuaries along the wetland‐rich USA Gulf of Mexico coast. We did so under three sea level rise scenarios (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m by 2100). Within the region, the potential for wetland migration is highest within certain estuaries in Louisiana and southern Florida (e.g. Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays, Mermentau River, Barataria Bay, and the North and South Ten Thousand Islands estuaries). The potential for coastal squeeze is highest in estuaries containing major metropolitan areas that extend into low‐lying lands. The Charlotte Harbor, Tampa Bay, and Crystal‐Pithlachascotee estuaries (Florida) have the highest amounts of urban land expected to constrain wetland migration. Urban barriers to migration are also high in the Galveston Bay (Texas) and Atchafalaya/Vermilion Bays (Louisiana) estuaries. Synthesis and applications . Coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem services that benefit human health and well‐being, including shoreline protection and fish and wildlife habitat. As the rate of sea level rise accelerates in response to climate change, coastal wetland resources could be lost in areas that lack space for landward migration. Migration corridors are particularly important in highly urbanized estuaries where, due to low‐lying coastal development, there is not space for wetlands to move and adapt to sea level rise. Future‐focused landscape conservation plans that incorporate the protection of wetland migration corridors can increase the adaptive capacity of these valuable ecosystems and simultaneously decrease the vulnerability of coastal human communities to the harmful effects of rising seas.

Gulf of Mexico coast↗
USGS2015

Coastal vertebrate exposure to predicted habitat changes due to sea level rise

Sea level rise (SLR) may degrade habitat for coastal vertebrates in the Southeastern United States, but it is unclear which groups or species will be most exposed to habitat changes. We assessed 28 coastal Georgia vertebrate species for their exposure to potential habitat changes due to SLR using output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model and information on the species’ fundamental niches. We assessed forecasted habitat change up to the year 2100 using three structural habitat metrics: total area, patch size, and habitat permanence. Almost all of the species (n = 24) experienced negative habitat changes due to SLR as measured by at least one of the metrics. Salt marsh and ocean beach habitats experienced the most change (out of 16 categorical land cover types) across the three metrics and species that used salt marsh extensively (rails and marsh sparrows) were ranked highest for exposure to habitat changes. Species that nested on ocean beaches (Diamondback Terrapins, shorebirds, and terns) were also ranked highly, but their use of other foraging habitats reduced their overall exposure. Future studies on potential effects of SLR on vertebrates in southeastern coastal ecosystems should focus on the relative importance of different habitat types to these species’ foraging and nesting requirements. Our straightforward prioritization approach is applicable to other coastal systems and can provide insight to managers on which species to focus resources, what components of their habitats need to be protected, and which locations in the study area will provide habitat refuges in the face of SLR.

Georgia↗
USGS2005

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Cape Hatteras National Seashore (CAHA) in North Carolina. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Cape Hatteras National Seashore consists of stable and washover dominated segments of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas within Cape Hatteras that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

North Carolina↗
USGS2006

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park in Hawaii. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 500-meter grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park consists of carbonate sand beaches, coral rubble, rocky shoreline, and mangrove wetland areas. The areas within Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise based on this analysis are areas of unconsolidated sediment and highest wave energy.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Observing coastal wetland transitions using national land cover products

Over the coming century, climate change and sea-level rise are predicted to cause widespread change to coastal wetlands. Estuarine vegetated wetlands can adapt to sea-level rise through both vertical development (i.e., biophysical feedbacks and sedimentation) and upslope/horizontal migration. Quantifying changes to estuarine vegetated wetlands over time can help to inform current and future decisions regarding land management and resource stewardship. In this study, we show how coastal land cover maps readily available in the US can be used to assess and understand estuarine vegetated wetland changes. This assessment involves two steps: (1) identifying the net gain/loss of estuarine vegetated wetlands and (2) determining which land cover types contribute to the net gain/loss. From this information, we developed estuarine vegetated wetland change scenarios that evaluate whether estuarine vegetated wetland gain kept up with loss and whether the contribution was from: (1) estuarine vegetated wetland migration or tidal restoration; (2) land building (i.e., development); or (3) both. We assessed changes from 1996 to 2016 for: (1) the conterminous US; (2) each major US coastline; and (3) focal estuaries with the most change per coast. We found that the change scenario (1, 2, or 3) varied across coastlines. Moving forward, national coastal land cover programs can be informed by utilizing methodologies that leverage contemporary information for delineating the estuarine zone from upslope/adjacent wetlands. We highlight approaches that could be used to address this challenge and provide complementary information related to wetland condition changes.

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environm↗
USGS2024

Dynamic modeling of coastal compound flooding hazards due to tides, extratropical storms, waves, and sea-level rise: A case study in the Salish Sea, Washington (USA)

The Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) is a tool designed to dynamically downscale future climate scenarios (i.e., projected changes in wind and pressure fields and temperature) to compute regional water levels, waves, and compound flooding over large geographic areas (100 s of kilometers) at high spatial resolutions (1 m) pertinent to coastal hazard assessments and planning. This research focuses on advancing robust and computationally efficient approaches to resolving the coastal compound flooding components for complex, estuary environments and their application to the Puget Sound region of Washington State (USA) and the greater Salish Sea. The modeling system provides coastal planners with projections of storm hazards and flood exposure for recurring flood events, spanning the annual to 1-percent annual chance of flooding, necessary to manage public safety and the prioritization and cost-efficient protection of critical infrastructure and valued ecosystems. The tool is applied and validated for Whatcom County, Washington, and includes a cross-shore profile model (XBeach) and overland flooding model (SFINCS) and is nested in a regional tide–surge model and wave model. Despite uncertainties in boundary conditions, hindcast simulations performed with the coupled model system accurately identified areas that were flooded during a recent storm in 2018. Flood hazards and risks are expected to increase exponentially as the sea level rises in the study area of 210 km of shoreline. With 1 m of sea-level rise, annual flood extents are projected to increase from 13 to 33 km 2 (5 and 13% of low-lying Whatcom County) and flood risk (defined in USD) is projected to increase fifteenfold (from 14 to USD 206 million). PS-CoSMoS, like its prior iteration in California (CoSMoS), provides valuable coastal hazard projections to help communities plan for the impacts of sea-level rise and storms.

Washington↗
USGS2024

Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model

Low-lying, tropical, coral-reef-lined coastlines are becoming increasingly vulnerable to wave-driven flooding due to population growth, coral reef degradation, and sea-level rise. Early-warning systems (EWSs) are needed to enable coastal authorities to issue timely alerts and coordinate preparedness and evacuation measures for their coastal communities. At longer timescales, risk management and adaptation planning require robust assessments of future flooding hazard considering uncertainties. However, due to diversity in reef morphologies and complex reef hydrodynamics compared to sandy shorelines, there have been no robust analytical solutions for wave runup to allow for the development of large-scale coastal wave-driven flooding EWSs and risk assessment frameworks for reef-lined coasts. To address the need for fast, robust predictions of runup that account for the natural variability in coral reef morphologies, we constructed the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process modeling system. We developed this meta-process model using a training dataset of hydrodynamics and wave runup computed by the XBeach Non-Hydrostatic process-based hydrodynamic model for 440 combinations of water level, wave height, and wave period with 195 representative reef profiles that encompass the natural diversity in real-world fringing coral reef systems. Through this innovation, BEWARE-2 can be applied in a larger range of coastal settings than meta-models that rely on a parametric description of the coral reef geometry. In the validation stage, the BEWARE-2 modeling system produced runup results that had a relative root mean square error of 13% and relative bias of 5% relative to runup simulated by XBeach Non-Hydrostatic for a large range of oceanographic forcing conditions and for diverse reef morphologies (root mean square error and bias 0.63 and 0.26 m, respectively, relative to mean simulated wave runup of 4.85 m). Incorporating parametric modifications in the modeling system to account for variations in reef roughness and beach slope allows for systematic errors (relative bias) in BEWARE-2 predictions to be reduced by a factor of 1.5–6.5 for relatively coarse or smooth reefs and mild or steep beach slopes. This prediction provided by the BEWARE-2 modeling system is faster by 4–5 orders of magnitude than the full, process-based hydrodynamic model and could therefore be integrated into large-scale EWSs for tropical, reef-lined coasts and used for large-scale flood risk assessments.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗
USGS2004

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) in Mississippi and Florida. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The Gulf Islands in Mississippi and Florida consist of stable and washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland and marsh. The areas likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash, the highest rates of shoreline change, the gentlest regional coastal slope, and the highest rates of relative sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers.

Florida, Mississippi↗
USGS2005

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Channel Islands National Park (CHIS) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Channel Islands National Park off the coast of California. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Channel Islands National Park consists of sand and gravel beaches, rock cliffs, and alluvial fans. The areas within the Channel Islands that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are areas of unconsolidated sediment where regional coastal slope is low and wave energy is high.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2023

Global projections of storm surges using high-resolution CMIP6 climate models

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.

Earth's Future↗
USGS2005

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Gateway National Recreation Area (GATE) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Gateway National Recreation Area in New York and New Jersey. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value was calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Gateway National Recreation Area consists of stable and washover dominated segments of Holocene barrier spit on Breezy Point and Sandy Hook, and Pleistocene glacial outwash and historic artificial fill on Staten Island. The areas within Gateway that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

New Jersey, New York↗
USGS2005

Simulation of ground-water flow in coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida-predevelopment, 1980, and 2000

A digital model was developed to simulate steady-state ground-water flow in a 42,155-square-mile area of coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida. The model was developed to (1) understand and refine the conceptual model of regional ground-water flow, (2) serve as a framework for the development of digital subregional ground-water flow and solute-transport models, and (3) serve as a tool for future evaluations of hypothetical pumping scenarios used to facilitate water management in the coastal area. Single-density ground-water flow was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during predevelopment (pre?1900) and the years 1980 and 2000. The model comprises seven layers: the surficial aquifer system, the Brunswick aquifer system, the Upper Floridan aquifer, the Lower Floridan aquifer, and the intervening confining units. A combination of boundary conditions was applied, including a general-head boundary condition on the top active cells of the model and a time-variable fixed-head boundary condition along part of the southern lateral boundary. Simulated heads for 1980 and 2000 conditions indicate a good match to observed values, based on a plus-or-minus 10-foot (ft) calibration target and calibration statistics. The root-mean square of residual water levels for the Upper Floridan aquifer was 13.0 ft for the 1980 calibration and 9.94 ft for the 2000 calibration. Some spatial patterns of residuals were indicated for the 1980 and 2000 simulations, and are likely a result of model-grid cell size and insufficiently detailed hydraulic-property and pumpage data in some areas. Simulated potentiometric surfaces for predevelopment, 1980, and 2000 conditions all show major flow system features that are indicated by estimated peotentiometric maps. During 1980?2000, simulated water levels at the centers of pumping at Savannah and Brunswick rose more than 20 ft and 8 ft, respectively, in response to decreased pumping. Simulated drawdown exceeded 10 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer across much of the western half of the model area, with drawdown exceeding 20 ft along parts of the western, northern, and southern boundaries where irrigation pumping increased during this period. From predevelopment to 2000 conditions, the simulated water budget showed an increase in inflow from, and decrease in outflow to, the general-head boundaries, and a reversal from net seaward flow to net landward flow across the coastline. Simulated changes in recharge and discharge distribution from predevelopment to 2000 conditions showed an increase in extent and magnitude of net recharge cells in the northern part of the model area, and a decrease in discharge or change to recharge in cells containing major streams and beneath major pumping centers. The model is relatively sensitive to pumping and the controlling head at the fixed-head boundary and less sensitive to the distribution of aquifer properties in general. Model limitations include: (1) its spatial scale and discretization, (2) the extent to which data are available to physically define the flow system, (3) the type of boundary conditions and controlling parameters used, (4) uncertainty in the distribution of pumping, and (5) uncertainty in field-scale hydraulic properties. The model could be improved with more accurate estimates of ground-water pumpage and better characterization of recharge and discharge.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2005

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Virgin Islands National Park on St. John in the US Virgin Islands. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined and an index value calculated for 500-meter grid cells covering coastal areas of the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Virgin Islands National Park coast consists of carbonate sand beaches, rock cliffs, fringing reefs, and mangrove wetlands. The areas within Virgin Islands National Park that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are areas of unconsolidated sediment where coastal slope is low, and wave energy is high.

US Virgin Islands↗
USGS2010

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Dynamic modeling of barrier island response to hurricane storm surge under future sea level rise

Sea level rise (SLR) has the potential to exacerbate the impacts of extreme storm events on the coastal landscape. This study examines the coupled interactions of SLR on storm-driven hydrodynamics and barrier island morphology. A numerical model is used to simulate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic impacts of two Gulf of Mexico hurricanes under present-day and future sea levels. SLR increased surge heights and caused overwash to occur at more locations and for longer durations. During surge recession, water level gradients resulted in seaward sediment transport. The duration of the seaward-directed water level gradients was altered under SLR; longer durations caused more seaward-directed cross-barrier transport and a larger net loss in the subaerial island volume due to increased sand deposition in the nearshore. Determining how SLR and the method of SLR implementation (static or dynamic) modulate storm-driven morphologic change is important for understanding and managing longer-term coastal evolution.

Dauphin Island↗
USGS2005

Coastal vulnerability assessment of War in the Pacific National Historical Park to sea-level rise

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within War in the Pacific National Historical Park (NHP) on the island of Guam. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each input variable were combined, and an index value calculated for 200-meter grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. War in the Pacific NHP consists of sand beaches and rock headlands. The areas within War in the Pacific NHP that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are areas of unconsolidated sediment where coastal slope is lowest and wave energy is high.

Open-File Report↗