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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources

USGS2022

Warming temperatures affect meadow-wide nectar resources, with implications for plant-pollinator communities

Nectar production may be a point of sensitivity that can help link primary and secondary trophic responses to climate shifts, and is therefore important to our understanding of ecosystem responses. We evaluated the nectar response of two widespread native forbs, Balsamorhiza sagittata and Eriogonum umbellatum , to experimental warming in a high-elevation sagebrush meadow in the Teton Range, WY, USA, over two years, 2015 and 2016. Warming treatments reduced the occurrence of nighttime freezing and nectar volume but increased sugar concentration in nectar in both species in both years. Warming effects were also evident in a consistent increase in the number of flowers produced by B. sagittata . Our research suggests that warming associated with climate change has the potential to induce shifts in the nectar-feeding community by changing nectar characteristics such as volume and sugar concentration to which nectar feeders are adapted.

Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: The Western Mountain Initiative

Mountain ecosystems within our national parks and other protected areas provide valuable goods and services such as clean water, biodiversity conservation, and recreational opportunities, but their potential responses to expected climatic changes are inadequately understood. The Western Mountain Initiative (WMI) is a collaboration of scientists whose research focuses on understanding and predicting responses of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change. It is a legacy of the Global Change Research Program initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in 1991 and continued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to this day as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (http://www.climatescience.gov/). All WMI scientists are active participants in CIRMOUNT, and seek to further its goals.

California, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Washing↗

USGS2007

Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: The Western Mountain Initiative

Mountain Views↗

USGS2024

The petrology of dispersed organic matter in sedimentary rocks: Review and update

Organic petrology developed from coal petrology, and, in the 1960s, it began to be applied to the study of dispersed organic matter (DOM) in sedimentary rocks other than coal. Over the last few decades, the petrology of DOM has been used to characterize organic matter in sedimentary basins with an emphasis on fossil fuel resource exploration. Today, due to the global research shift on topics related to climate, organic petrology has expanded into new application areas, such as geothermal exploration, biological carbon storage (biochar), disposal, and management of radioactive waste. From the publication of the International Handbook of Coal Petrology (mid-20th century) to the present day, a large number of standards, books, and articles have been published as a result of the work of organic petrographers and petrologists around the world and efforts of the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology (ICCP) and The Society for Organic Petrology (TSOP) to promote the study of organic petrology. The current fundamentals and standards of organic petrology provide the international scientific community with well-informed guidance and recommendations to promote in-depth research. However, this information is currently widely scattered, leading to discrepancies in methodology and terminology. Therefore, this paper aims to present a comprehensive review of the main analytical standard test methods and techniques currently used in the petrology of DOM under reflected white light and UV and blue-light excitation, and to provide an efficient and well-defined reference guide. Furthermore, considering the important role of the ICCP in the development of organic petrology since the 1950s, a brief review of the ongoing activities of ICCP dealing with DOM is also presented.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

USGS2016

The Aleutian-Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment

Recent efforts to develop downscaled climate projections for the Bering Sea and Aleutians created an opportunity to better assess regional vulnerability to climate change. The Aleutian Bering Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ABCVA) was launched in 2014 to bring together regional science expertise and stakeholder interests in a rapid evaluation of the implications of future climate projections. This effort followed an internationally accepted but flexible pathway to develop practical, priority research topics that address ecosystem and community vulnerabilities. The ABCVA was completed as a partnership between the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ABSI LCC), the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS), and ultimately brought together three linked objectives: 1. identify and assess selected climate vulnerabilities of key resources and ecosystem services in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea region 2. broadly engage managers and stakeholders about the implications of climate vulnerabilities in the region 3. help ABSI LCC and the Alaska Climate Science Center and AOOS prioritize future research investments and focus The ABCVA convened a group of 30 researchers with expertise ranging from anthropology to zooplankton to review climate projections and their implications for the Aleutians and Bering Sea. These experts worked in five topic-based teams to assess vulnerabilities of species and ecosystem services relative. Each team identified initial vulnerabilities and made recommendations for further research that would help managers and communities better understand the implications of the changing climate in this region.

Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands↗

USGS2025

Challenges and priorities for climate-informed invasive species management across multiple scales

In recent decades, substantial evidence has accumulated regarding the effects of climate change on the establishment, spread, and impact of invasive species. While the importance of incorporating climate change into invasive species management and policy is increasingly recognized, practitioner experiences and perspectives are often overlooked. Consequently, invasive species research may be misaligned with the needs of managers and the threats of climate change. Here, we compare survey responses from a boundary-spanning organization, the Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (RISCC) Management Network, to identify common priorities and challenges in managing invasive species in a changing climate in the United States. Survey respondents reported that 22% of management and research time is dedicated to emerging invasive species threats. Common barriers to climate-informed invasive species management include limited time, funding, and personnel. Understanding how climate change may impact control strategies was consistently identified as a high priority for invasive species management, followed by identifying resilient ecosystems and range-shifting taxa. These results demonstrate the critical need for stronger researcher-practitioner networks and greater investment in research and policy topics that more closely align with management needs to address the interacting stressors of invasive species and climate change.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2018

Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic vegetation models in isolated and data-poor islands. We identified locations consistently expected to remain the same in terms of the native biome compatibility by the end of the century with a robust evaluation of sources of uncertainty in our projections. Our results show that, despite large differences in climate projections considered, 35% of the areas considered are consistently projected to maintain their current compatibility to native biomes. By integrating our native biome compatibility projections with maps of current actual cover, we identified areas ideal for long-term habitat conservation and restoration. Our modeling approach can be used with relatively simple data; offers multiple forms of projection confidence estimates, model calibration, and variable selection routines; and is compatible with ensemble projections. This method is not only applicable to potential native cover, as done in this study, but to any set of vegetation classes that are related to environmental predictors available for modeling.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Delta-Flux: An eddy covariance network for a climate-smart Lower Mississippi Basin

Networks of remotely monitored research sites are increasingly the tool used to study regional agricultural impacts on carbon and water fluxes. However, key national networks such as the National Ecological Observatory Network and AmeriFlux lack contributions from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB), a highly productive agricultural area with opportunities for soil carbon sequestration through conservation practices. The authors describe the rationale to create the new Delta-Flux network, which will coordinate efforts to quantify carbon and water budgets at seventeen eddy covariance flux tower sites in the LMRB. The network structure will facilitate climate-smart management strategies based on production-scale and continuous measurements of carbon and water fluxes from the landscape to the atmosphere under different soil and water management conditions. The seventeen instrumented field sites are expected to monitor fluxes within the most characteristic landscapes of the target area: row-crop fields, pasture, grasslands, forests, and marshes. The network participants are committed to open collaboration and efficient regionalization of site-level findings to support sustainable agricultural and forestry management and conservation of natural resources.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi↗

USGS1993

Toward the simulation of the effects of the Great Lakes on regional climate

This paper describes a set of numerical experiments aimed at evaluating the feasibility of applying a version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Pennsylvania State University regional model (MM4) to regional climate simulation over the Great Lakes Basin. The objectives of this initial modeling investigation are 1) to examine whether the MM4 can capture the primary forcing exerted by the Great Lakes on the regional climate and 2) to evaluate what model resolution and configuration are needed to simulate such forcing. Simulations over the Great Lakes region are conducted with and without representation of the lakes at four model gridpoint resolutions ranging from 15 to 90 km. One experiment at 60-km resolution is discussed in which a one-dimensional thermal eddy diffusion model is interactively coupled to the MM4 to represent the lakes. Initial and lateral boundary conditions necessary to drive these simulations are provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses of observations. All simulations conducted are 10 days in length, from 22 December 1985 to 1 January 1986. When driven with data from ECMWF analyses of observations, the climate version of the MM4 reproduces the basic characteristics of the distribution of lake-effect precipitation over the Great Lakes Basin. Differences between simulations with and without the lakes represented indicate that the lakes accounted for approximately 25% of the precipitation over the basin during the 10-day period simulated. Over localized areas, identified as the major snowbelts downwind from the lakes, lake effects were responsible for 50%–70% of the precipitation. Basinwide precipitation did not vary greatly among the simulations with resolutions of 60, 30, and 15 km, although biases between model results and station observations did decrease slightly with increasing model resolution. Basinwide maximum and minimum temperature biases decreased more markedly with finer resolution. In the snowbelt regions downwind from the lakes, precipitation was underforecast at all four model resolutions, but precipitation generally increased with finer resolution. Differences between the results from the simulations at the three finest resolutions were greater over snowbelt regions than over the basin as a whole. A simulation was conducted with the MM4 coupled to a lake model in an interactive two-way nested configuration. The implementation of this coupling was accomplished in a straightforward manner, with no model tuning required, and added very little to the computation time needed for the MM4 system. This coupled modeling system was found to produce realistic distributions of lake surface temperatures, evaporation rates, and ice thicknesses across the lakes. In climate simulations where the MM4 is nested in a general circulation model (GCM), we believe that the use of this coupled modeling system is preferable to specifying lake parameters by interpolation from GCM output. The next step in this work is to conduct a simulation of at least one annual cycle over the region to more fully test the coupled MM4-take model system.

Great Lakes region↗

USGS2026

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗

USGS2009

Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Groundwater Resources of the United States

Groundwater is an important part of the global fresh water supply and is affected by climate. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are working with local, State, Federal, and international partners to understand how the availability and sustainability of groundwater resources in the United States will be affected by climate variability and change. This fact sheet describes climate variability and change, important groundwater resources of the Nation, and how USGS research is helping to answer critical questions about the effects of climate on groundwater.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2005

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of global environmental change in mountain regions

One of the challenges for global environmental change research is to understand how future climate changes will be expressed in mountain regions. The physiographic complexity of mountains creates environments that can be highly variable over relatively short distances. This spatial heterogeneity reflects a hierarchy of environmental controls. At regional scales, insolation and atmospheric circulation features determine the dominant regional climate patterns that affect mountain regions. At finer spatial scales, substrate, aspect, elevation, and a number of other environmental factors influence ecosystem dynamics. Vegetation, for example, is affected by all levels of this hierarchy, from regional-scale climate regimes down to site-specific features, such as substrate type (cf. Körner, this volume).

western United States↗

USGS2014

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

An integrative ecological drought framework to span plant stress to ecosystem transformation

Droughts have increased globally in the twenty-first century and are expected to become more extreme and widespread in the future. Assessments of how drought affects plants and ecosystems lack consistency in scope and methodology, confounding efforts to mechanistically interpret structural and functional impacts and predict future transformations under climate change. To promote integration among studies, we identify water deficit conditions that are ecologically meaningful, clarify the stages in which ecological drought progresses, and consider approaches to synthesize drought effects across multiple species and ecosystems. This improved ecological drought framework reveals advantages of using different ecological drought metrics and strengthens approaches to distinguish ecosystem stress from crossing an irreversible threshold. We employ several well-studied examples from water-limited ecosystems, which contain plants that are often at their physiological limits and highly responsive to climate variability. We suggest that emerging research on early warning signs, drought recovery, and the effects of land management interventions be incorporated into the ecological drought framework. An integrative approach to understand ecological drought can accelerate scientific advancement and create opportunity to adapt and prepare for crossing irreversible ecosystem thresholds.

Ecosystems↗

USGS2016

Assessing conditions influencing the longitudinal distribution of exotic brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a mountain stream: a spatially-explicit modeling approach

Trout species often segregate along elevational gradients, yet the mechanisms driving this pattern are not fully understood. On the Logan River, Utah, USA, exotic brown trout ( Salmo trutta ) dominate at low elevations but are near-absent from high elevations with native Bonneville cutthroat trout ( Onchorhynchus clarkii utah ). We used a spatially-explicit Bayesian modeling approach to evaluate how abiotic conditions (describing mechanisms related to temperature and physical habitat) as well as propagule pressure explained the distribution of brown trout in this system. Many covariates strongly explained redd abundance based on model performance and coefficient strength, including average annual temperature, average summer temperature, gravel availability, distance from a concentrated stocking area, and anchor ice-impeded distance from a concentrated stocking area. In contrast, covariates that exhibited low performance in models and/or a weak relationship to redd abundance included reach-average water depth, stocking intensity to the reach, average winter temperature, and number of days with anchor ice. Even if climate change creates more suitable summer temperature conditions for brown trout at high elevations, our findings suggest their success may be limited by other conditions. The potential role of anchor ice in limiting movement upstream is compelling considering evidence suggesting anchor ice prevalence on the Logan River has decreased significantly over the last several decades, likely in response to climatic changes. Further experimental and field research is needed to explore the role of anchor ice, spawning gravel availability, and locations of historical stocking in structuring brown trout distributions on the Logan River and elsewhere.

Utah↗

USGS2017

Appraisal of the future climate of the Holocene in the Rocky Mountains

Consideration of the history of Holocene climate in the Rocky Mountains indicates that the over-all trend during the past 2500 yr has been toward increasing warmth, interrupted by cooler times of minor advances of cirque glaciers. Comparison of Holocene climatic history with the record of past interglacials in the region suggests that the present interglacial is not complete and that the climate may become first warmer and subsequently wetter before it is completed. Correlation of the timing of the regional glacial-interglacial record for the past 140,000 yr with the record of major sea level changes and with the calculated changes in the earth's insolation suggest that the present interglacial may be completed within a few millenia and that it may be followed by a significant cooling of the climate.

Rocky Mountain region↗

USGS2025

Warming Alaskan rivers affect first-year growth in critical northern food fishes

Arctic and subarctic rivers are warming rapidly, with unknown consequences for migratory fishes and the human communities dependent on them. To date, few studies have provided a comprehensive assessment of possible climate change impacts on the hydrology and temperature of Arctic rivers at the regional scale, and even fewer have connected those changes to multiple fish species with input and guidance from Indigenous communities. We used climate, hydrologic, and fish-growth simulations of historical (1990–2021) and future (2034–2065) young-of-year (YOY) growth potential of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and Dolly Varden ( Salvelinus malma ) for seven river basins in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) region of Alaska, USA and Yukon Territory, Canada. Historically, summer water temperatures of all river basins remained below thresholds regarded as deleterious for Chinook salmon (14.6 °C) and Dolly Varden (16 °C), even in the warmest years. However, by the mid-century, Chinook salmon growth was limited, with declines in the warmest years in most river basins. Conversely, Dolly Varden are expected to benefit, with a near-doubling in growth projections in all river basins. This suggests that there may be an increase in suitable habitat for Dolly Varden by mid-century. The results highlight species-specific consequences of climate change and can guide future research on refugia for these species of cultural and subsistence importance to Indigenous communities in the AYK region and throughout the Arctic.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Occupancy models for citizen-science data

Large‐scale citizen‐science projects, such as atlases of species distribution, are an important source of data for macroecological research, for understanding the effects of climate change and other drivers on biodiversity, and for more applied conservation tasks, such as early‐warning systems for biodiversity loss. However, citizen‐science data are challenging to analyse because the observation process has to be taken into account. Typically, the observation process leads to heterogeneous and non‐random sampling, false absences, false detections, and spatial correlations in the data. Increasingly, occupancy models are being used to analyse atlas data. We advocate a dual approach to strengthen inference from citizen science data for the questions the programme is intended to address: (a) the survey design should be chosen with a particular set of questions and associated analysis strategy in mind and (b) the statistical methods should be tailored not only to those questions but also to the specific characteristics of the data. We review the consequences of particular survey design choices that typically need to be made in atlas‐style citizen‐science projects. These include spatial resolution of the sampling units, allocation of effort in space, and collection of information about the observation process. On the analysis side, we review extensions of the basic occupancy models that are frequently necessary with atlas data, including methods for dealing with heterogeneity, non‐independent detections, false detections, and violation of the closure assumption. New technologies, such as cell‐phone apps and fixed remote detection devices, are revolutionizing citizen‐science projects. There is an opportunity to maximize the usefulness of the resulting datasets if the protocols are rooted in robust statistical designs and data analysis issues are being considered. Our review provides guidelines for designing new projects and an overview of the current methods that can be used to analyse data from such projects.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗