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At least 307 records · Page 17Linked to original sources

USGS1977

Streamflow characteristics of the Joplin area, Missouri

Low-flow and peak-flow frequency data and flow-duration-data, based on records from 21 gaging stations in the Joplin area of southwestern Missouri, are presented. Generalized equations and graphs based on gaging-station records are-shown so that estimates of frequency data and the effects of urbanization on peak flows can be made at ungaged sites. An analysis of a histogram of annual flood peaks shows that the chances for delay in construction work due to flooding are greatest during April through June and in September.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1978

Distribution of organic carbon and petroleum source rock potential of Cretaceous and lower Tertiary carbonates, south Florida basin: Preliminary results

Analyses of 134 core samples from the South Florida Basin show that the carbonates of Comanchean age are relatively richer in average organic carbon (0.41 percent) than those of Coahuilan age (0.28 percent), Gulfian age (0.18 percent) and Paleocene age (0.20 percent). They are also nearly twice as rich as the average world, wide carbonate (average 0.24 percent). The majority of carbonates have organic carbons less than 0.30 percent but the presence of many relatively organic rich beds composed of highly bituminous, argillaceous, highly stylolitic, and algal-bearing limestones and dolomites accounts for the higher percentage of organic carbon in some of the stratigraphic units. Carbonate rocks that contain greater than 0.4 percent organic carbon and that might be considered as possible petroleum sources were noted in almost each subdivision of the Coahuilan and Comanchean Series but particularly the units of Fredericksburg 'B', Trinity 'A', Trinity 'F', and Upper Sunniland. Possible source rocks have been ascribed by others to the Lower Sunniland, but lack of sufficient samples precluded any firm assessment in this initial report. In the shallower section of the basin, organic-rich carbonates containing as much as 3.2 percent organic carbon were observed in the lowermost part of the Gulfian Series and carbonate rocks with oil staining or 'dead' and 'live oil' were noted by others in the uppermost Gulfian and upper Cedar Keys Formation. It is questionable whether these shallower rocks are of sufficient thermal maturity to have generated commercial oil. The South Florida basin is still sparsely drilled and produces only from the Sunniland Limestone at an average depth of 11,500 feet (3500 m). Because the Sunniland contains good reservoir rocks and apparently adequate source rocks, and because the success rate of new oil field discoveries has increased in recent years, the chances of finding additional oil reserves in the Sunniland are promising. Furthermore, the presence of possible source rocks in many of the other stratigraphic units, in particular, the Fredericksburg, should give further impetus to exploring for other productive horizons.

Florida↗

USGS1980

Feasibility of using an acoustic velocity meter to measure flow in the Chipps Island channel, Suisun Bay, California

Tests were conducted in 1978 to determine the feasibility of using an acoustic velocity meter to measure the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta outflow in the Chipps Island Channel, Suisun Bay, Calif. Three parts of transducers with frequencies of 100, 40, and 24 kilohertz were installed on a cross-channel test path and operated at three elevations, 15.5, 8.0, and 4.0 feet below mean lower low water, to test signal transmission at varying depths. Transmission was most reliable at the lowest depth, and the 24-kilohertz transducers at the 7-millivolt threshold of signal strength met the study 's criterion of no persistent signal loss of more than one hour 's duration in any phase of the tidal cycle. Signal strength was statistically correlated with the environmental factors of wind velocity, wind direction, solar insolation, electrical conductivity, water temperature, water velocity, stage, rate of change in stage, and the acceleration of the rate of change in stage. All correlations were weak. Signal strength is apparently a function of the interaction of several environmental factors. A 32-day test to observe if aquatic growth on the transducers would affect signal transmission showed no reduction in signal strength. Suspended-sediment samples indicated that both the size and concentration of particles are greater than presumed in earlier studies. According to the results of this study, chances are good for reliable transmission of acoustic velocity meter signals. Usually some signals were much stronger than the average 20-second signal strength at 15-minute intervals used for correlation and the frequency analysis. Superior equipment is now being developed specifically for the Chipps Island site to transmit signals several times stronger than the signals analyzed in these tests. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS1981

Lineaments and fracture traces, Jennings County and Jefferson Proving Ground, Indiana

Jennings and several adjacent counties are economically restricted "by inadequate water supplies. The North Vernon Water Utility, supplying more than 25 percent of Jennings County's population, obtains its water from the Vernon Fork Muscatatuck River, although streamflow is less than the average daily withdrawal 69 days of the year. The U.S. Army, Jefferson Proving Ground, pipes water more than 5 miles and lifts it 375 feet for fire protection. Another Jennings County utility pipes water more than 15 miles to rural domestic consumers unable to locate sufficient ground-water supplies. Two nearly horizontal sequences of Paleozoic limestone and dolomite, intermittently separated by a thin, discontinuous shale unit, constitute the principal aquifer. Many wells tapping this aquifer are unable to supply single-dwelling needs, whereas others supply several dwellings with ease. All the wells tapping the aquifer have been located for the owners' convenience and are randomly located in relation to lineaments and fracture traces. Lineaments and fracture traces were observed throughout the study area, and those most easily interpreted are shown on a map at a scale of 1:48,000. Pleistocene drift, averaging 25-30 feet thick, covers most of the bedrock, but did not restrict the mapping of lineaments and fracture traces from aerial photographs. The lineament and fracture-trace map indicates probable locations of vertical or near vertical fractures in the bedrock. Wells drilled on these mapped features may yield adequate supplies for domestic use. Larger yields may be available in several areas of southwest Jennings County where lineaments parallel major stream channels. Well placement is important in this area, as fractures are a principal source of water to wells. In areas of fractured bedrock, the most productive well locations are at the intersections of two or more mapped lineaments or fracture traces and at the lowest local altitude. Use of the lineament and fracture-trace map will not guarantee a sufficent supply of ground water but will minimize the chance of drilling an inadequate well.

Indiana↗

USGS1981

Pattern-recognition program modified and applied to southeastern United States seismicity

The pattern-recognition technique of Bongard and others (1966), Gelfand and others (1976), and Briggs and others (1977) was modified and applied in Southeastern United States to try to detect combinations or interactions of geologic, geophysical, and topographic parameters characteristic of areas with moderate and large earthquakes. The modification involved replacing the operator-defined criteria for significance of association of parameters and earthquakes with statistical estimates of significance. This was done in order to decrease the probability of random associations and to increase the flexibility of the pattern-recognition technique. The binomial distribution was used to determine the probability that each particular association could have occurred by chance. Bonferroni's inequality was invoked to determine a conservative significance level for each of the binomial tests. However, without being able to quantify the dependence among the associations, it is not possible to statistically evaluate the group of binomial tests as a whole. Preliminary results identify four independent associations characterizing spatially independent earthquake epicenters, or "dangerous" points, and seven independent associations characterizing the intervening "safe" points. When all points were reclassified using these traits, all epicenters were correctly classified as dangerous. In addition, three "safe" points were reclassified as dangerous and appear to be potential sites for future earthquakes. However, it is not possible to determine the degree of dangerousness of the points using this reclassification scheme. Two dangerous zones emerge in the northeast and southwest portions of the study area. Epicenters outside of these zones, including those of the large historic earthquakes (MMI > VIII) in Giles County, Virginia, and Charleston, South Carolina, have not been well characterized by the significant associations and may have fundamentally different causes.

southeastern United States↗

USGS1981

An oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (proposed sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the North Atlantic (Proposed Sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were also estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 40-percent chance) and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 52 will result in an expected 10.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.71. If existing transportation of oil in the area is considered, this probability increases greatly, to more than 0.99.

North Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf↗

USGS1981

Revised techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana

Relations for estimating the flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana have been updated. The State was divided into eight regions and separate multiple-regression equations for each region were developed that relate logarithms of annual flood magnitude to logarithms of basin characteristics for exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, and 1 percent. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1 percent ranged from 39 to 58 percent in the western and central parts of the State and from 47 to 83 percent in the eastern part. The standard errors of estimate indicate a substantial improvement over previous studies. Techniques for transferring annual flood-frequency information at gaged sites to ungaged sites on the same stream have been updated. Included are curves relating flood-frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood peaks in Montana are compared with estimated 1-percent-chance flood peaks and with national maximum known flood peaks. Values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are data for 339 stations in Montana and 34 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS1981

An oilspill risk analysis for the Beaufort Sea, Alaska (proposed sale 71)outer continental shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, (Proposed Sale 71) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The model predicted movement of the center of spill mass and estimated the times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources, to allow a qualitative assessment of oil characteristics at the time of contact; no direct computation was made of weathering and cleanup. The model also assumed that any oil spilled under ice would remain in place, unchanged, until spring breakup. Ice movements, or travel of oil under ice, if occurring, would affect the results in a manner not directly predictable at this time. The combined results of spill occurrence and spill movement predictions yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 99.3-percent chance) it is estimated that the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 71 will result in an expected 9.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) over the lease lifetime of 25 years. This estimate is based on historic oilspill accident data for platforms and pipelines on the U.S. OCS (Gulf of Mexico and California). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days (not counting any time trapped under ice) is greater than 99.5 percent. If oilspill accident data for Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, is used in the analysis, it is estimated that 5.6 oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger) will occur over the lease lifetime. The estimated probability that one or more oilspills (1,000 barrels or larger)will occur and contact land is99 percent. The results of a recent experimental cleanup operation for oilspills under ice in Canadian Arctic waters showed a substantial degree of success; this should be considered in evaluating impacts of spills predicted by this model. Oilspill occurrence probabilities are high primarily because of the large amount of oil believed to be present in the area.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1983

Lineaments and fracture traces, Decatur County, Indiana

Lineanents and fracture traces have been mapped throughout Decatur County, Indiana. These lineaments and fracture traces may indicate that solution enlarged vertical fractures in the limestone and dolonite aquifers underlie most of the county. The use of lineament and fracture-trace maps in selecting bedrock-drilling sites results in a significant increase in the number of usable sites. Bedrock wells drilled on or near mapped lineaments and fracture traces have a higher average yield than veils drilled into interfracture areas. Parts of Decatur County and several adjacent counties are economically restricted by inadequate water supplies. The Greensburg Municipal Water Works, supplying 35 percent of the county's population, obtains 25 percent of its water from six wells in Greensburg. The remaining 75 percent is pumped from the Flat Rock River. This water is piped 8.25 miles and lifted 183 feet to the treatment station. Although the Flatrock River has adequate flow to supply Greensburg's water needs, a ground-water supply can probably be developed nearer the treatment plant. Pleistocene till covers most of the nearly horizontal bedrock. Although averaging about 50 feet thick, this unconsolidated unit does not seem to inhibit the mapping of lineaments and fracture traces. Bedrock is middle Paleozoic limestone, dolomite, and shale. Two sequences of limestone and dolomite, separated by a thin shale unit, constitute the principal aquifer. The extremely variable well yields from this aquifer indicate that the bedrock permeability is also variable. Well placement is important in a fractured bedrock terrane, as fractures are a principal source of water to the well. Here, the most productive bedrock wells are at the mapped intersection of two or more fracture traces or lineaments and at the lowest local altitude. Use of a fracture-trace map will not guarantee a sufficient supply of ground water but will reduce the chance of drilling an inadequate well.

Indiana↗

USGS1996

Slope stability of proposed ski facilities at the southeast side of Snodgrass Mountain, Gunnison County, Colorado

Part of the proposed expansion of ski facilities at Crested Butte Mountain Resort, Gunnison County, Colorado, is in an area underlain by landslide deposits that are on the southeast side of Snodgrass Mountain. Except for localized movement, the landslides do not appear to be moving at present or to have moved in the past several decades. Shallow sliding and debris flows have occurred in similar materials nearby and are likely to occur in the landslide deposits during the 50-100 year life of the proposed facilities. Hazards related to debris flow, shallow slumping, and expansive soils in the deposits can be reduced by appropriate engineering and remedial measures but maintenance for the proposed facility may become costly. Snow making is likely to aggravate the hazards of shallow slumping, deep-seated sliding, and debris flow. Reactivation and deep-seated movement of a 1.6-million-m3 slide at the east side of the deposits would damage or destroy a proposed gondola, ski lift N-3, and related facilities. Moving the gondola and lift off the slide and prohibiting snow making on the slide will protect the gondola and lift and reduce the chances of debris-flow damage to a proposed development near the toe of the slide. Insufficient data are available to assess the current or future stability of the landslides or to evaluate possible mitigation strategies; detailed stability analyses are needed before developing any facilities on the landslide deposits.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1997

Volcano hazards in the Mount Hood region, Oregon

Mount Hood is a potentially active volcano close to rapidly growing communities and recreation areas. The most likely widespread and hazardous consequence of a future eruption will be for lahars (rapidly moving mudflows) to sweep down the entire length of the Sandy (including the Zigzag) and White River valleys. Lahars can be generated by hot volcanic flows that melt snow and ice or by landslides from the steep upper flanks of the volcano. Structures close to river channels are at greatest risk of being destroyed. The degree of hazard decreases as height above a channel increases, but large lahars can affect areas more than 30 vertical meters (100 vertical feet) above river beds. The probability of eruption-generated lahars affecting the Sandy and White River valleys is 1-in-15 to l-in-30 during the next 30 years, whereas the probability of extensive areas in the Hood River Valley being affected by lahars is about ten times less. The accompanying volcano-hazard-zonation map outlines areas potentially at risk and shows that some areas may be too close for a reasonable chance of escape or survival during an eruption. Future eruptions of Mount Hood could seriously disrupt transportation (air, river, and highway), some municipal water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation and transmission in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.

Oregon↗

USGS1984

Floods of May 1978 in southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming

Heavy rain and some snow fell on previously saturated ground over southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming during May 16-19, 1978. The maximum amount of 7.60 inches within a 72-hour period observed at Lame Deer, Montana, set a record for the month of May in that region. Heavy flooding occurred in the drainages of the Yellowstone River and its tributaries as well as the Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, and North Platte Rivers. The previous maximum flood of record was exceeded at 48 gaged sites, and the 1-percent chance flood was equaled or exceeded at 24 sites. Flood damage was extensive, exceeding $33 million. Nineteen counties in the two States were declared major disaster areas. Mean daily suspended-sediment discharges exceeded previously recorded maximum mean daily values at four sites on the Powder River. The maximum daily suspended-sediment discharge of 2,810,000 tons per day occurred on May 20 at the Site Powder River near Arvada, Wyoming. (USGS)

Professional Paper↗

USGS2017

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Chukchi Borderland Province, 2008

The Chukchi Borderland is both a stand-alone petroleum province and assessment unit (AU) that lies north of the Chukchi Sea. It is a bathymetrically high-standing block of continental crust that was probably rifted from the Canadian continental margin. The sum of our knowledge of this province is based upon geophysical data (seismic, gravity, and magnetic) and a limited number of seafloor core and dredge samples. As expected from the limited data set, the basin’s petroleum potential is poorly known. A single assessment unit, the Chukchi Borderland AU, was defined and assigned an overall probability of about a 5 percent chance of at least one petroleum accumulation >50 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE). No quantitative assessment of sizes and numbers of petroleum accumulations was conducted for this AU.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2019

Geology and assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Northwest Canada Interior Basins Province, Arctic Canada

The Northwest Canada Interior Basins Province is bounded by the Mackenzie and Richardson Mountains on the southwest and west, by the Eskimo Lakes Arch on the northwest, and by the erosional limit of Paleozoic strata on the east. It lies within the far northwest part of the Paleozoic continent of Laurentia. During early Paleozoic time, it was part of a passive margin formed when the Neoproterozoic supercontinent Rodinia broke apart. A Cambrian marine transgressive sequence gave way to an evaporitic intrashelf basin, succeeded by a westward-building carbonate bank from Late Cambrian through Middle Devonian time. In Late Devonian and early Carboniferous time, the region was buried by a thick succession of south-prograding clastic strata derived from orogenic belts to the northeast and north. A subsequent period of inactivity and erosion persisted until sedimentation resumed as the opening of the Canada Basin initiated an Early Cretaceous marine transgression over much of the region. Later in Cretaceous time, clastic strata derived from Cordilleran uplifts to the southwest began to prograde north, ending with eventual Laramide uplift and deformation in latest Cretaceous and Paleogene time. Two petroleum systems are known within the province. A petroleum system in Cambrian to Middle Devonian strata, sourced by alginitic Cambrian shales and sealed by Cambrian evaporites, is proven by modest gas discoveries in the Colville Hills; generation is attributed to burial under the Upper Devonian clastic wedge. An Upper Devonian petroleum system, proven by the presence of the 250-million-barrel Norman Wells field at the southern edge of the province, was sourced by organic-rich shale of the Canol Formation. Generation is similarly inferred to have been driven by burial beneath the Devonian clastic wedge, perhaps augmented locally by additional Cretaceous burial. Potential reservoirs include Devonian reefs and sandstones stratigraphically below and laterally equivalent to the source rocks, as well as overlying sandstones in the clastic wedge. Subordinate source rocks could include organic-rich shales within the clastic wedge. Principal risks to the lower Paleozoic petroleum system include (1) inadequate reservoir volume for a field of the minimum size and (2) petroleum loss by remigration caused by Laramide deformation. One lower Paleozoic assessment unit (AU) was quantitatively assessed, with estimated resources of 0 to 117 million barrels of oil (MMBO), mean 23 MMBO; and 0 to 1,364 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG), mean 310 BCFG. The principle risks to the Devonian petroleum system were considered to be (1) lack of preservation due to extensive erosion before the Cretaceous, and (2) inadequate reservoir volume, because the best potential reservoir strata, Devonian reefs, may be absent throughout most of the province owing to either lack of deposition or erosion. These risks were sufficiently high that the single AU defined in the Devonian petroleum system was not quantitatively assessed, because the chance of a field of the minimum size, 50 million barrels of oil equivalent, was estimated to be only 0.1.

Northwest Canada Interior Basins Province↗

USGS1978

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources – Tennessee region

Ground water is an abundant and little-used resource in the Tennessee Region, a 41,000 square mile area dominated by the Tennessee River system and including parts of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. One-fifth to one-fourth of the precipitation that falls on the region enters the ground-water reservoirs. During the year approximately the same amount of water leaves the ground-water system, sustaining the dry-weather flow of streams. Recharge for the region is about 22,000 million gallons per day or 0.5 million gallons per day per square mile. The major types of aquifers in the region are unconsolidated material (including sand and regolith), carbonate rocks, and fractured noncarbonate rocks. One or more of these aquifer types occurs in each of the six physiographic subdivisions of the region. The productivity of these aquifers depends on their hydraulic properties and on the distribution of these properties. The unconsolidated sand aquifers are the most homogeneous in composition and most predictable in occurrence. These aquifers commonly yield 200 to 600 gallons per minute per well depending on the thickness of sand penetrated. The most difficult aquifers to predict in regard to depth and yield are the carbonate rocks. In these aquifers it is possible to drill dry holes within a few hundred feet of wells capable of producing several thousand gallons per minute. However, with an adequate reconnaissance study to determine the occurrence of ground water and a planned test drilling program, yields of up to 300 gallons per minute per well can be expected in the carbonate aquifers. Potential yields from the fractured noncarbonate aquifers are lower than in the carbonate rocks. The chemical and physical properties of ground water in the Tennessee Region are usually within the limits recommended by the Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water, and the ground water in all but some very shallow aquifers tends to be free of pathogenic microorganisms. Saline water is not known to occur in significant quantities in the region. In 1970, 173 million gallons per day of ground water were used in the Tennessee Region. This was less than 8 percent of the total quantity of water used in the region and only 0.8 percent of the estimated ground-water recharge. Ground water is used chiefly as a source of water supply for rural areas and small towns. A lesser amount is used by industries and commercial establishments located beyond the limits of municipal water-supply systems. However, there is potential for significantly increased use in order to augment surface-water supplies and to utilize the total water resource more efficiently. Hydrologic studies and adequate test drilling would greatly increase the chances of locating large amounts of ground water, especially in the nine-tenths of the Tennessee Region that is underlain by either carbonate rocks or fractured noncarbonate rocks which have highly variable water-bearing properties. Collectively, such studies are useful in developing a concept of the hydrologic system which would permit the development of criteria for selecting well sites in other areas with a similar geological and hydrological setting. Hydrologic studies that include test drilling have been conducted in all parts of the region except the Cumberland Plateau. Some of the basic data necessary for hydrologic studies, such as geologic maps, well records, and streamflow records are available throughout the region. However, detailed information on groundwater levels, ground-water quality, and aquifer characteristics are not equally available throughout the region. This type of information cannot be obtained quickly when it is needed; it must be the product of a continuing program of studies designed to evaluate the Tennessee Region's ground-water resource. Because of the interdependence of ground water and surface water, water management efforts can be fully effective only if they involve the whole water resource. In the Tennessee Region, surface water is highly controlled, but there is at present no regionwide water-resources management plan that includes ground water.

Tennessee↗

USGS2005

Proceedings of the U.S. Geological Survey Fourth Biennial Geographic Information Science Workshop: Denver, Colorado, April 23-27, 2001

Introduction: The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fourth Biennial Geographic Information Science (GIS) Workshop (USGS-GIS 2001) was held April 23-27, 2001, at the Denver Federal Center in Denver, Colorado. The workshop provided an environment for participants to improve their knowledge about GIS and GIS-related applications that are used within the USGS. Two major topics of USGS-GIS 2001 were the application of GIS technology to interdisciplinary science and the distribution and sharing of USGS GIS products. Additionally, several presentations included GIS technology and tools, project applications of GIS, and GIS data management. USGS-GIS 2001 included user and vendor presentations, demonstrations, and hands-on technical workshops. Presentation abstracts that were submitted for publication are included in these proceedings. The keynote speaker was Karen Siderelis, the USGS Associate Director for Information (Geographic Information Officer). In addition to the USGS, other Federal agencies, GIS-related companies, and university researchers presented lectures or demonstrations or conducted hands-on sessions. USGS employees and contractors from every discipline and region attended the workshop. To facilitate the interaction between the Federal agencies, each of the presenting Federal agencies was invited to send a representative to the workshop. One of the most beneficial activities of USGS-GIS 2001, as identified by an informal poll of attendees, was the Monday evening poster session in which more than 75 poster presentations gave attendees a chance to learn of work being performed throughout the USGS. A feature new to USGS-GIS 2001 was internet participation of USGS personnel through cyber seminars of the morning plenary sessions.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

Water-balance simulations of runoff and reservoir storage for the Upper Helmand watershed and Kajakai Reservoir, central Afghanistan

A study was performed to provide information on monthly historical and hypothetical future runoff for the Upper Helmand watershed and reservoir storage in Kajakai Reservoir that could be used by Afghanistan authorities to make economic and demographic decisions concerning reservoir design and operation, reservoir sedimentation, and development along the Helmand River. Estimated reservoir volume at the current spillway elevation of 1,033.5 meters decreased by about 365 million cubic meters from 1968 to 2006 because of sedimentation. Water-balance simulations indicated a good fit between modeled and recorded monthly runoff at the two gaging stations in the watershed for water years 1956-79 and indicated an excellent fit between modeled and recorded monthly changes in Kajakai Reservoir storage for water years 1956-79. Future simulations, which included low starting reservoir water levels and a spillway raised to an elevation of 1,045 meters, indicated that the reservoir is likely to fill within 2 years. Although Kajakai Reservoir is likely to fill quickly, multiyear deficits may still occur. If future downstream irrigation demand doubles but future precipitation, temperature, and reservoir sedimentation remain similar to historical conditions, the reservoir would have more than a 50-percent chance of being full during April or May of a typical year. Future simulations with a 10-percent reduction in precipitation indicated that supply deficits would occur more than 1 in 4 years, on average, during August, September, or October. The reservoir would be full during April or May fewer than 1 in 2 years, on average, and multiyear supply deficits could occur. Increased sedimentation had little effect on reservoir levels during April through July, but the frequency of deficits increased substantially during September and October.

Kajakai Reservoir, Upper Helmand watershed↗

USGS2007

Volcano Hazards Assessment for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) is a very large shield-shaped volcano located in northern California where it forms part of the southern Cascade Range of volcanoes. It has erupted hundreds of times during its half-million-year history, including nine times during the past 5,200 years, most recently 950 years ago. This record represents one of the highest eruptive frequencies among Cascade volcanoes and includes a wide variety of different types of lava flows and at least two explosive eruptions that produced widespread fallout. Compared to those of a typical Cascade stratovolcano, eruptive vents at MLV are widely distributed, extending 55 km north-south and 40 km east-west. The total area covered by MLV lavas is >2,000 km2, about 10 times the area of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Judging from its long eruptive history and its frequent eruptions in recent geologic time, MLV will erupt again. Although the probability of an eruption is very small in the next year (one chance in 3,600), the consequences of some types of possible eruptions could be severe. Furthermore, the documented episodic behavior of the volcano indicates that once it becomes active, the volcano could continue to erupt for decades, or even erupt intermittently for centuries, and very likely from multiple vents scattered across the edifice. Owing to its frequent eruptions, explosive nature, and proximity to regional infrastructure, MLV has been designated a 'high threat volcano' by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity, but with only two seismometers located high on the volcano and no other USGS monitoring equipment in place, MLV is at present among the most poorly monitored Cascade volcanoes.

Scientific Investigations Report↗