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Zircon surface crystallization ages for the extremely reduced magmatic products of the Millennium Eruption, Changbaishan Volcano (China/North Korea)

The Millennium Eruption (ME) of Changbaishan volcano (Baitoushan, Paektu) at 946 CE (Common Era) is one of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth during Holocene times. We date unpolished zircon crystal faces from diverse ME products collected from the southern side of Changbaishan volcano where the ME pumice and welded and non-welded pyroclastic flow deposits (PFD) are better exposed. All zircons from a pumice sample of the southern caldera rim and the youngest (Group 1) zircons from a welded pumiceous PFD sample yield an isochron crystallization age of 0.7 ± 1.8 ka (2σ). Zircons from the welded pumiceous PFD sample yield additional two age groups at ~10 ka and ~ 100 ka. Zircons from a non-welded charcoal-containing PFD have only one age population at 100 ka. Our work shows that different eruption products from ME have different zircon surface age distributions and may tap different levels of a zoned felsic magma chamber. In addition, the results indicate that ion microprobe U-Th dating of zircon crystal surfaces from ME pumices can effectively date the Millennium eruption age. Previously reported zircon U-series ages for Qixangzhan eruption (12.2 ± 1.1 ka, 2σ) and Yuanchi eruption (7.3 ± 1.8 ka, 2σ) at Changbaishan are also likely to date their respective eruption ages. The occurrence of 100 ka zircons in welded and non-welded PFDs reveals an important magmatic event for the Changbaishan volcano. Zircon and Fe-rich clinopyroxene crystallized at similar temperature at 770–750 °C, indicative of early zircon crystallization in peralkaline magmas. Another important result is the extremely low oxygen fugacity (fO 2 = ΔFMQ-2) of the Changbaishan samples. Minerals in ME magmas were crystallized under some of the most reducing magmatic environments on Earth. Highly reducing conditions of magmas from Changbaishan supports a continental rift setting and argues against significant involvements of subduction-related oxidizing fluids during magma genesis.

Changbaishan Volcano

Report of the Committee on Glaciers, 1934–35

The members of the Committee on Glaciers for 1935 are as given in the report of the Committee for 1933–34 in the Transactions of the Fifteenth Annual Meeting with the addition of Kenneth N. Phillips (The Mazamas, Pacific Building, Portland, Oregon). The year 1934 witnessed a further expansion of the program of systematic annual observations on the variations of American glaciers which was inaugurated by the Committee in 1931. Several of the collaborators in the field-work of their own initiative enlarged the scope of their activities, and a new group joined the movement in the Pacific Northwest, These are the Mountaineers, of Seattle, Washington, who began observations on the glaciers of Mount Baker, which are the largest in the continental United States next to those on Mount Rainier. Under the leadership of H. V. Strandberg a base-line was laid out by the Mountaineers for measurement of the recession of the Easton Glacier, on the south side of the peak.

Washington

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group proceedings, Nashville, Tennessee, October 22-24, 2024

Karst hydrogeologic systems represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists studying groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Karst terrains are characterized by distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs, and many of the exceptional karst areas are designated as national or state parks. The range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than any other aquifer type. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Karst Interest Group (KIG), formed in 2000, is a loosely knit, grassroots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst aquifers. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops. To date (2024), nine KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. The abstracts and extended abstracts provide a snapshot in time of past and current karst related studies. The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program funded the workshop and proceedings. The planning committee for the ninth workshop includes Thomas D. Byl (USGS and Tennessee State University), Allan K. Clark (USGS), Laura M. DeMott (USGS), Eve L. Kuniansky (USGS, Emeritus), Benjamin V. Miller (USGS), and Lawrence E. Spangler (USGS, Emeritus). The workshop proceedings are edited by Eve L. Kuniansky and Lawrence E. Spangler. The field trip guide was produced by Benjamin V. Miller and Brian Ham (Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation) and included in the proceedings from the KIG’s 2021 virtual workshop to be used on the optional field trip held on Thursday, October 24, 2024.

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey Karst Interest Group Proceedings, October 19–20, 2021

Karst hydrogeologic systems represent challenging and unique conditions to scientists attempting to study groundwater flow and contaminant transport. Karst terrains are characterized by distinct and beautiful landscapes, caverns, and springs, and many of the exceptional karst areas are designated as national or state parks. The range and complexity of landforms and groundwater flow systems associated with karst terrains are enormous, perhaps more than any other type of aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Karst Interest Group (KIG), formed in 2000, is a loosely knit, grassroots organization of USGS and non-USGS scientists and researchers devoted to fostering better communication among scientists working on, or interested in, karst aquifers. The primary mission of the KIG is to encourage and support interdisciplinary collaboration and technology transfer among scientists working in karst areas. To accomplish its mission, the KIG has organized a series of workshops. To date (2021), eight KIG workshops, including the workshop documented in this report, have been held. This workshop is the first virtual workshop. The abstracts and extended abstracts provide a snapshot in time of past and current karst-related studies. The field trip guide is included in the proceedings volume even though the field trip will not occur in person.

Scientific Investigations Report

Perspectives on equitable co-production workshop report

The co-production of knowledge is increasingly recognized as an approach to conducting research intended to achieve a societal impact. In this study, we used a broad definition of co-production, defining it as “a process that brings together diverse groups to iteratively create new knowledge and practices (1).” However, co-production has been defined and conceptualized in a variety of ways (2,3), across multiple domains, including public administration, conservation, health, education, and climate change. Theoretical definitions have been introduced by scholars like Jasanoff (4) and Ostrom (5), but definitions can also be grounded in practice (6). For example, unique definitions of co-production have been advanced for work with Arctic Indigenous Peoples (7), in the context of resource management (8), and for a specific program (9). Other similar processes of engagement, such as community-based participatory research (10), action research (11), civic science (12), community science (13), and post-normal science (14) may have overlap with the concept of co-production and have been used to describe similar processes of collaboration. These distinctions and varying definitions have been discussed extensively elsewhere (see Mach et al. 2020, Wyborn et al. 2019). In the context of co-production, power plays a crucial role in shaping interactions and outcomes. Some scholars and practitioners explicitly consider power dynamics as a central element in their definitions of co-production, recognizing how power imbalances can affect participation, decision-making, and the distribution of benefits. Others, however, might not emphasize power as prominently, focusing more on the collaborative aspects without explicitly addressing the underlying power structures. This leads to divergent objectives and priorities among projects claiming to be co-produced (2,3, 6). Chambers and colleagues (2) discussed how co-production projects in the context of sustainability usually emphasize one or more of six different goals, including: researching solutions, empowering voices, brokering power, reframing power, navigating differences, and reframing agency. Because power dynamics are inherent in co-production (15), equity dimensions should be considered in these definitions and conceptualizations. Yet, in the context of government or academically led climate change research and programs, equity is a relatively new focus, even among programs that have been engaging a co-production approach for decades (9). Alternatively, in some recent work the concept of equity in co-production is explicit, but it has only been considered in a limited context (7). Here, we present a discussion about co-production that is informed by research, practice, and community perspectives across partnerships from a range of regions and topics. We are specifically interested in how different actors in these projects think about equity and work towards more equitable approaches in the context of their co-production work. This understanding is needed, as the federal government has increasingly focused on co-production approaches in the design of their programs and funding calls, and most recently the Biden administration has called on federal agencies to more intentionally center equity for underserved groups of people in their work (16). Furthermore, with the Biden administration’s focus on environmental and climate justice, the opportunity for researchers and their societal partners to engage in co-production is expanding. Numerous programs within federal agencies have embraced a co-production approach, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP; formerly called the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments or RISA program) (9,17), Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs)(18), and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs. However, the actual implementation of co-production processes varies significantly (1,19), with multiple implications for the design of equitable partnerships. Researchers, their partners, and funders have frequently cited many tensions and challenges in the successful implementation of co-production, including higher resource demands and few systemic structures for support (20). Practically implementing co-production, especially with people who have been underrepresented in or historically excluded from research activities, must consider fairness and the accessibility of co-production processes. While co-production is often cited as important for environmental governance, issues like power and equity are infrequently addressed (15). To explore this topic, we identified and studied three projects that centered on equity in co-production from three federal climate programs (CASC, CAP, USDA Climate Hubs) in three different regions of the U.S. (Alaska, Northeast, Southeast). We aimed to identify consensus or divergence in perspectives related to equitable co-production processes to elevate effective practices and link co-production research and practice. Findings from interviews and a survey (explained further in Akerlof et al., 2023) informed a twoday hybrid workshop involving participants from the three case studies, as well as individuals representing research, governmental, non-governmental, and community organizations across the United States. Participants also included scholars of co-production, program coordinators, and people who participated in co-production projects on behalf of their communities. Several boundary spanners, those practitioners who work at the intersection of the production and use of science (21,22), also attended the workshop. The goals of the workshop were to discuss and build on what was learned from the three case studies, discuss the three distinct perspectives on equitable co-production that emerged from the pre-workshop research, and draft a framework for equitable co-production processes. During the workshop, participants considered the three perspectives on equitable co-production, defining equitable co-production for each and discussing the practical implications of each, including barriers and priorities for overcoming them. We aimed to address the question: How can federal climate programs support equitable co-production processes?

Report

A case study of data integration for aquatic resources using semantic web technologies

Use cases, information modeling, and linked data techniques are Semantic Web technologies used to develop a prototype system that integrates scientific observations from four independent USGS and cooperator data systems. The techniques were tested with a use case goal of creating a data set for use in exploring potential relationships among freshwater fish populations and environmental factors. The resulting prototype extracts data from the BioData Retrieval System, the Multistate Aquatic Resource Information System, the National Geochemical Survey, and the National Hydrography Dataset. A prototype user interface allows a scientist to select observations from these data systems and combine them into a single data set in RDF format that includes explicitly defined relationships and data definitions. The project was funded by the USGS Community for Data Integration and undertaken by the Community for Data Integration Semantic Web Working Group in order to demonstrate use of Semantic Web technologies by scientists. This allows scientists to simultaneously explore data that are available in multiple, disparate systems beyond those they traditionally have used.

Open-File Report

Raccoons of North and Middle America

The raccoons, genus Procyon, colloquially known as “coons,” belong to the carnivorous family Procyonidae, which also includes the American genera Nasua, Nasuella, Bassaricyon, and Potos, and the Old World genera Ailurus and Ailuropoda of the subfamily Ailurinae. The members of the Procyon lotor group (subgenus Procyon), with a transcontinental range from southern Canada to Panama, except in parts of the Rocky Mountain region, and including those inhabiting several distant islands, are among the most familiar and characteristic of North American mammals. This group is not known to occur south of Panama. It is overlapped in the Isthmian region by the so-called crab-eating raccoons of the subgenus Euprocyon, which range from that northern limit as far south as Paraguay in South America. The raccoons have been greatly reduced in numbers or have disappeared in many formerly wooded sections, owing to clearing and intensive human occupation. Despite adverse conditions, however, they have maintained themselves in many places with remarkable tenacity. Trapping for other fur bearers may have reduced the northern fringe to some extent, but the general range of the group has been little diminished. At the present time raccoons reach their northern limit in regular occurrence on Vancouver Island, B. C. The continental forms of the subgenus Procyon constitute a compact assemblage of closely allied geographic races all assignable to Procyon lotor. Complete intergradation is evident in numerous cases and the relative value and combination of characters presented indicate such close relationships that it can safely be assumed where lack of material leaves gaps in the known ranges. In the present revision of the raccoons are treated the North American continental species as far as the eastern border of Panama and the species on outlying islands along both the Atlantic and the Pacific coasts. Thirty species and subspccics are recognized. Twenty-nine of these are assigned to the subgenus Procyon and one to the subgenus Euproc yon. The revision is based mainly on a study of raccoon material in the collection of Biological Surveys, Fish and Wildlife Service, and in other collections in the United States National Museum. These and 358 specimens borrowed from other museums make a total of 1,337 examined. The assemblage included the types or topotypes of most of the known species and subspecies. For the loan of specimens the writer is especially indebted to Dr. Thomas Barbour, Museum of Comparative Zoology, Cambridge, Mass. ; the late Dr. Joseph Grinnell, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, Berkeley, Calif.; Dr. W. H. Osgood, Chicago Natural History Museum, Chicago, Ill.; Dr. H. E. Anthony, American Museum of Natural History, New York City; Dr. R. M. Anderson, National Museum of Canada, Ottawa, Canada; the late Oldfield Thomas of the British Museum (Natural History) ; Francis Kermode, Provincial Museum, Vancouver, British Columbia; Dr. L. R. Dice, Museum of Zoology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich.; and the late D. R. Dickey, Pasadena, Calif. Grateful acknowledgment is also due to Percy Shufeldt, La Cueva, N. Vex., for the generous donation of specimens collected by him in Campeche, Mexico. Notes on his examination of specimens in the British Museum have been kindly furnished by Dr. Remington Kellogg, United States National Museum, Washington, D. C. Stanley P. Young, Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, D. C., generously supplied the photograph for the frontispiece. Dr. E. W. Nelson became keenly interested in the raccoons, as shown by his work on those inhabiting the Florida Keys (1930a).' During the same time and in the following year new subspecies were described jointly by Nelson and the writer in preparation for a revision of the group; but other projects claimed attention and our collaboration could not be carried beyond this preliminary stage

North American Fauna

U.S. Geological Survey Activities Related to American Indians and Alaska Natives Fiscal Year 2002

Information is a resource for Native American governments, communities, organizations, and people. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides technical expertise, reports, and other impartial information sources that benefit Native Americans interested in subsistence issues, water, land use, and the health of many parts of the environment. Native self-sufficiency, economic development, and conservation are cultivated through Native decisions informed with USGS data and analyses. The USGS works in cooperation with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, conducting research on water and mineral resources, animals and plants of environmental, economic, or subsistence importance, natural hazards, and geologic resources. Digital data on cartography, mineral resources, streamflow, biota, and other topics are available to American Indian and Alaska Native individuals and institutions. The USGS recognizes the need to learn from and share knowledge with Native peoples. This report describes most of the activities that the USGS conducted with American Indian and Alaska Native governments, educational institutions, and individuals during Federal Fiscal Year 2002. Some of these USGS activities were carried out in concert with the Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA). Others were conducted by Tribes, Tribal organizations, professional societies, and the USGS. A growing number of Tribal governments, educational institutions, and other Tribal organizations have begun using geographic information systems and other digital technologies in recent years. As Tribes become more interested in and more adept at managing digital information, they are seeking relevant data from the USGS more frequently. Using digital technologies provides Tribal governments with additional means of managing lands and resources for the benefit of current and future generations. The USGS recognizes the need to make its information available to Tribal governments, and to work with those governments and other institutions to advance data management capabilities. The USGS also recognizes that Tribal institutions have varying needs, interests, and capacities. The USGS strives to be sensitive to the unique circumstances of each of these institutions while supporting their self-driven evolution. The USGS is responding to these needs by increasing the transfer of scientific information to American Indian and Alaska Native governments and by training employees of those governments to conduct scientific studies and improve scientific data management. The USGS is also encouraging American Indians and Alaska Natives to pursue careers in science and seeking ways to hire Indian and Native students. By identifying, improving, and disseminating information about available hiring mechanisms, the USGS is working to make hiring such students easier, and, therefore, more likely, for USGS managers. The U.S. Geological Survey is the Federal science bureau within the Department of the Interior (DoI). The USGS is non-regulatory and is not a significant manager of Federal or Trust lands or assets. However, as described in this report, there are several types of USGS activities that involve American Indians, Alaska Natives, and their lands. One type of activity is the course of formal studies, conducted through existing USGS programs, that involves collection of specific types of data as well as investigative and research projects. These projects typically last 2 or 3 years, although a few are parts of longer-term activities. Some projects are funded through cooperative agreements, from monies provided to the USGS by individual Tribal governments, or by the BIA. The USGS provides matching funds for cooperative projects. These formal projects may also receive funding from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Indian Health Service (part of the Department of Health and Human Services), or other Federal agencies. The USGS routinely works with its sister bureaus in the Department of the Interior to provide the scientific information and expertise needed to meet the Department's science priorities. Within this context, the USGS and the BIA are cooperating to use USGS information resources to benefit American Indian and Alaska Native peoples and their lands. The second type of USGS activity is less formal, based on initiatives designed and conducted by USGS employees. Frequently involving educational activities, these endeavors are prompted by employee interests, often as collateral issues, that result from one or more USGS employees identifying and responding to an observed need. In these activities, USGS employees help fulfill a mission of the USGS--to prove scientific relevance--while helping their fellow citizens. Increasingly, some of the educational activities are becoming parts of formal USGS projects. USGS employees have also taken the initiative in assisting American Indians and Alaska Natives through participation in several organizations that were created to foster awareness of science among Native peoples and to help build support and communication networks. One such group is the American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES). This group sponsors an annual national meeting in which USGS employees participate. USGS employees join this organization on a voluntary basis, bringing the benefits of this expanded network to the USGS, as many employees do with other professional organizations. Each part of the USGS has identified an American Indian/Alaska Native liaison. The USGS has a regional organizational structure, with Western, Central, and Eastern Regions. The regions work in concert with specific scientific disciplines to conduct the scientific mission of the USGS. The regional structure is intended to bring us closer to our customers; we hope that Native Americans and Alaska Natives will use the contacts listed at the end of this report.

Report

Creating oriented and precisely sectioned mineral mounts for in situ chemical analyses—An example using olivine for diffusion chronometry studies

Diffusion chronometry is now a widely applied methodology for determining the rates and timescales of geologic processes from the chemical zoning observed in minerals. Despite the popularity of the method, several challenges still remain during its application, including: (1) the random sectioning of minerals either in thin sections or grain mounts in which both off-center and oblique sections contribute substantial uncertainty to modeled timescales and (2) diffusion anisotropy needs to be accounted for in models, which generally requires determining the principal crystallographic axes of the mineral using electron backscatter diffraction, a technique that is both challenging and limiting because few scanning electron microscopes have an electron backscatter detector. This guide developed by the U.S. Geological Survey focuses on a step-by-step methodology for mounting individually oriented minerals that are sectioned through their cores prior to polishing for analytical work. Using this technique, one can significantly reduce the uncertainties associated with off-center sections and minimize or completely remove the need for determining crystallographic orientation via electron backscatter diffraction analyses. This report is presented as a guide for using the technique on olivine crystals but can be applied to any minerals that can be extracted for analysis. Two variations of the methodology are included here: (1) The individual crystal method that entails mounting individually sectioned single crystals and crystal groups and (2) the whole mount method in which multiple single crystals or crystal clusters are mounted and sectioned at the same time.

Techniques and Methods

Proceedings of the 25th Himalaya-Karakoram-Tibet Workshop

For a quarter of a century the Himalayan-Karakoram-Tibet (HKT) Workshop has provided scientists studying the India-Asia collision system a wonderful opportunity for workshop-style discussion with colleagues working in this region. In 2010, HKT returns to North America for the first time since 1996. The 25th international workshop is held from June 7 to10 at San Francisco State University, California. The international community was invited to contribute scientific papers to the workshop, on all aspects of geoscience research in the geographic area of the Tibetan Plateau and its bounding ranges and basins, from basic mapping to geochemical and isotopic analyses to large-scale geophysical imaging experiments. In recognition of the involvement of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists in a wide range of these activities, the USGS agreed to publish the extended abstracts of the numerous components of HKT-25 as an online Open-File Report, thereby ensuring the wide availability and distribution of these abstracts, particularly in the HKT countries from which many active workers are precluded by cost from attending international meetings. In addition to the workshop characterized by contributed presentations, participants were invited to attend a pre-meeting field trip from the Coast Ranges to the Sierra Nevada, to allow the international group to consider how the tectonic elements of the Pacific margin compare to those of the Himalayan belt. Following the workshop, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a workshop on the 'Future directions for NSF-sponsored geoscience research in the Himalaya/Tibet' intended to provide NSF Program Directors with a clear statement and vision of community goals for the future, including the scientific progress we can expect if NSF continues its support of projects in this geographic region, and to identify which key geoscience problems and processes are best addressed in the Himalaya and Tibet, what key datasets are needed, and how NSF can best support the evolving need for interdisciplinary investigations. This workshop also has clear societal relevance. Recent earthquakes have brought international attention to active tectonics and earthquake hazards in the HKT region. Prominent examples include the Mw 7.8 Kokoxili (Qinghai, China) earthquake of 2001, the Mw 7.6 Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake of 2005, the Mw 7.9 Wenchuan (Sichuan, China) earthquake of 2008, and this year the Mw 6.9 Yushu (Qinghai, China) earthquake. Geological and geophysical field work conducted both before these earthquakes, as well as in response to them, has helped to define the active faults and regional tectonics in the HKT region. The research presented at this workshop provides the framework necessary for improved seismic hazard assessments in this region. The organizers gratefully acknowledge the support of NSF's Continental Dynamics Program and its Office of International Science and Engineering, through award EAR-0965796. We thank San Francisco State University's Sheldon Axler, Dean of the College of Science and Engineering, and Toby Garfield, Director of the Romberg Tiburon Center, for use of their conference facilities; and the Department of Geosciences, particularly Deb Shulman and Miriam Knof, for administrative support. The California Academy of Sciences generously hosted a reception for visiting delegates, and Brad Ritts (Chevron Exploration Technology Company), Todd Greene (California State University, Chico) and John Shervais (Utah State University) together co-led the pre-conference field trip. Technical editing of this volume was led by Roxanne Renedo (U.S. Geological Survey) with assistance from Margaret Milia (Stanford University). We are grateful to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program and the USGS Menlo Park (California) Publishing Service Center for making this online report possible.

Open-File Report

Biological inventory of anchialine pools in the Pu'uhonua o Hōnaunau National Historical Park and Pu'ukoholā Heiau National Historical Site, Hawaii Island

Inventories for major groups of invertebrates were completed at anchialine pool complexes in Pu‘uhonua o Hōnaunau National Historical Park (PUHO) and Pu‘ukoholā Heiau National Historic Site (PUHE) on the island of Hawai‘i. Nine pools within two pool complexes were surveyed at PUHO, along with one extensive pool at the terminus of Makeāhua Gulch at PUHE. At both parks, inventories documented previously unreported diversity, with pool complexes at PUHO exhibiting greater species richness for most taxa than the pool at PUHE. Inventories at PUHO recorded five species of molluscs, four species of crustaceans (including the candidate endangered shrimp Metabetaeus lohena), two species of Orthoptera, four species of Odonata (including the candidate endangered damselfly Megalagrion xanthomelas), fourteen species of Diptera, nine taxa of plankton, and thirteen species of ants; inventories at the PUHE pool produced only one species of mollusc, two species of crustacean, at least one species of Orthoptera, four species of Odonata, thirty species of Diptera, five taxa of plankton, and four species of ants. Further survey work may be necessary to document the full diversity of pool fauna, especially in species-rich groups like the Diptera. Inventory data will be used to generate a network wide database of species presence and distribution, and will aid in developing management plans for anchialine pool resources.

Hawaii

Conditional, time-dependent probabilities for segmented Type-A faults in the WGCEP UCERF 2

This appendix presents elastic-rebound-theory (ERT) motivated time-dependent probabilities, conditioned on the date of last earthquake, for the segmented type-A fault models of the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). These probabilities are included as one option in the WGCEP?s Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF 2), with the other options being time-independent Poisson probabilities and an ?Empirical? model based on observed seismicity rate changes. A more general discussion of the pros and cons of all methods for computing time-dependent probabilities, as well as the justification of those chosen for UCERF 2, are given in the main body of this report (and the 'Empirical' model is also discussed in Appendix M). What this appendix addresses is the computation of conditional, time-dependent probabilities when both single- and multi-segment ruptures are included in the model. Computing conditional probabilities is relatively straightforward when a fault is assumed to obey strict segmentation in the sense that no multi-segment ruptures occur (e.g., WGCEP (1988, 1990) or see Field (2007) for a review of all previous WGCEPs; from here we assume basic familiarity with conditional probability calculations). However, and as we?ll see below, the calculation is not straightforward when multi-segment ruptures are included, in essence because we are attempting to apply a point-process model to a non point process. The next section gives a review and evaluation of the single- and multi-segment rupture probability-calculation methods used in the most recent statewide forecast for California (WGCEP UCERF 1; Petersen et al., 2007). We then present results for the methodology adopted here for UCERF 2. We finish with a discussion of issues and possible alternative approaches that could be explored and perhaps applied in the future. A fault-by-fault comparison of UCERF 2 probabilities with those of previous studies is given in the main part of this report.

Open-File Report

Cryptic extinction risk in a western Pacific lizard radiation

Cryptic ecologies, the Wallacean Shortfall of undocumented species’ geographical ranges and the Linnaean Shortfall of undescribed diversity, are all major barriers to conservation assessment. When these factors overlap with drivers of extinction risk, such as insular distributions, the number of threatened species in a region or clade may be underestimated, a situation we term ‘cryptic extinction risk’. The genus Lepidodactylus is a diverse radiation of insular and arboreal geckos that occurs across the western Pacific. Previous work on Lepidodactylus showed evidence of evolutionary displacement around continental fringes, suggesting an inherent vulnerability to extinction from factors such as competition and predation. We sought to (1) comprehensively review status and threats, (2) estimate the number of undescribed species, and (3) estimate extinction risk in data deficient and candidate species, in Lepidodactylus . From our updated IUCN Red List assessment, 60% of the 58 recognized species are threatened (n = 15) or Data Deficient (n = 21), which is higher than reported for most other lizard groups. Species from the smaller and isolated Pacific islands are of greatest conservation concern, with most either threatened or Data Deficient, and all particularly vulnerable to invasive species. We estimated 32 undescribed candidate species and linear modelling predicted that an additional 18 species, among these and the data deficient species, are threatened with extinction. Focusing efforts to resolve the taxonomy and conservation status of key taxa, especially on small islands in the Pacific, is a high priority for conserving this remarkably diverse, yet poorly understood, lizard fauna. Our data highlight how cryptic ecologies and cryptic diversity combine and lead to significant underestimation of extinction risk.

Biodiversity and Conservation

Abstracts of the Annual Meeting of Planetary Geologic Mappers, Tucson, AZ 2007

Introduction Report of the Annual Mappers Meeting Planetary Science Institute Tucson, Arizona June 28 and 29, 2007 Approximately 22 people attended this year's mappers meeting, and many more submitted abstracts and maps in absentia. The 2007 meeting was convened by Tracy Gregg, Les Bleamaster, Steve Saunders, and Ken Tanaka and was hosted by David Crown and Les Bleamaster of the Planetary Science Institute (PSI) in Tucson, Arizona. Oral presentations and poster discussions took place on Thursday, June 28 and Friday, June 29. This year's meeting also included a unique opportunity to visit the operations centers of two active Mars missions; field trips to the University of Arizona took place on Thursday and Friday afternoons. Outgoing Geologic Mapping Subcommittee (GEMS) chairperson, Tracy Gregg, commenced the meeting with an introduction and David Crown followed with a discussion of logistics and the PSI facility; Steve Saunders (Planetary Geology and Geophysics Discipline Scientist) then provided a brief program update. Science presentations kicked off with Venus mapper Vicki Hansen and graduate students Eric Tharalson and Bhairavi Shankar of the University of Minnesota, Duluth, showing a 3-D animation of the global distribution of tesserae and discussing the implications, a progress report for V-45 quadrangle mapping, and a brief discussion of circular lows. Les Bleamaster (PSI) followed with a progress report on mapping of the V-50 quadrangle and the 1:10M Helen Planitia quadrangle. David Crown (PSI) concluded the Venus presentations with a discussion of progress made on the V-30 quadrangle. The remainder of Thursday's presentations jumped around the Solar System including Mars, Io, and Earth. Ken Tanaka of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began the afternoon with a general discussion of the status of the planetary mapping program at USGS. Buck Janes (University of Arizona) provided background information about the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) and presented some new element maps, which may be useful for geologic mapping. Dave Williams of Arizona State University reported on the progress of his global Io map and James Dohm (University of Arizona) discussed results of terrestrial remote mapping studies. Thursday afternoon, the mappers were given a tour of the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) operations facility and were given some basic information about how the images are obtained, processed, and publicly released. With official GEMS transition completed at lunch on Thursday, incoming GEMS chair Leslie Bleamaster took the reigns of Friday's meeting. Science presentations began with Ken Tanaka discussing 1:20M-scale global and 1:2M-scale polar mapping of Mars. Jim Zimbelman (Smithsonian Institution) described his 1:1M Medusae Fossae map (MC-8 SE), which is nearing completion, and new mapping (MC-16 NW and MC-23 NW) to further evaluate the Medusae Fossae. Brent Garry, also of the Smithsonian Institution, presented work on Ascraeus Mons. Peter Mouginis-Mark (University of Hawai`i) reported progress on his 1:200K and larger maps of Tooting crater and of the Olympus Mons summit caldera. Laszlo Keszthelyi (USGS) presented mapping of Athabasca Valles, with much of the credit going to Windy Jaeger. Jim Skinner (USGS) introduced a new mapping project including nine MTM quadrangles in the Utopia Planitia region. Tracy Gregg finished off the day's science presentations with discussion of Hesperia Planum. After discussion was complete, the group once again traveled to the University of Arizona - this time for a tour of the Mars Phoenix operations center. Principal Investigator Peter Smith beamed as he led mappers through the multi-million dollar facility. A main topic of discussion throughout the entire meeting was that of nomenclature, specifically how to classify the individual depressions at the tops of volcanoes. Paterae, as has been used for Mars, Venus, and Io, was suggested, but i

Open-File Report

Influence of particle and surface quality on the vitrinite reflectance of dispersed organic matter: Comparative exercise using data from the qualifying system for reflectance analysis working group of ICCP

The development of a qualifying system for reflectance analysis has been the scope of a working group within the International Committee for Coal and Organic Petrology (ICCP) since 1999, when J. Koch presented a system to qualify vitrinite particles according to their size, proximity to bright components and homogeneity of the surface. After some years of work aimed at improving the classification system using photomicrographs, it was decided to run a round robin exercise on microscopy samples. The classification system tested consists of three qualifiers ranging from excellent to low quality vitrinites with an additional option for unsuitable vitrinites. This paper reports on the results obtained by 22 analysts who were asked to measure random reflectance readings on vitrinite particles assigning to each reading a qualifier. Four samples containing different organic matter types and a variety of vitrinite occurrences have been analysed. Results indicated that the reflectance of particles classified as excellent, good or poor compared to the total average reflectance did not show trends to be systematically lower or higher for the four samples analysed. The differences in reflectance between the qualifiers for any given sample were lower than the scatter of vitrinite reflectance among participants. Overall, satisfactory results were obtained in determining the reflectance of vitrinite in the four samples analysed. This was so for samples having abundant and easy to identify vitrinites (higher plant-derived organic matter) as well as for samples with scarce and difficult to identify particles (samples with dominant marine-derived organic matter). The highest discrepancies were found for the organic-rich oil shales where the selection of the vitrinite population to measure proved to be particularly difficult. Special instructions should be provided for the analysis of this sort of samples. The certainty of identification of the vitrinite associated with the vitrinite reflectance values reported has been assessed through a reliability index which takes into account the number of readings and the coefficient of variation. The same statistical approach as that followed in the ICCP vitrinite reflectance accreditation program for single seam coals has been used for data evaluation. The results indicated low to medium dispersion for 17 out of 22 participants. This, combined with data from other sets of comparative analyses over a long period, is considered an encouraging result for the establishment of an accreditation program on vitrinite reflectance measurements in dispersed organic matter. ?? 2006 ICCP.

International Journal of Coal Geology

Selenium in the Kootenai River Basin, Montana and Idaho, United States, and British Columbia, Canada

Selenium entering the 90-mile long transboundary Koocanusa Reservoir (also called Lake Koocanusa) in southeastern British Columbia, Canada, and northwestern Montana, United States, has been measured at concentrations above State and Federal water-quality and aquatic life standards. The reservoir is within the international Kootenai (or “Kootenay” in Canada) drainage basin, which contains critical habitat for native fish species and is impounded by Libby Dam 16 miles upstream from Libby, Montana. Since 1984, selenium concentrations have ranged from below detection to greater than 8 micrograms per liter in the Elk River, measured 2.2 miles above its discharge into Koocanusa Reservoir at a British Columbia environmental monitoring station (site 0200016). Selenium is a required micro-nutrient, but elevated concentrations in water bioaccumulate in egg-laying fish and birds, causing various sublethal effects and death. One possible source of selenium in the Kootenai River Basin is the excavation of bedrock in the Elk River Valley to access coal seams for metallurgical steelmaking and coal production. Five open-pit coal mines are operating in this region of southeastern British Columbia that produce about 21 million tons of metallurgical coal annually. Site-specific selenium standards were established for the reservoir in 2020 following collaborative work by the U.S. Geological Survey, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, the British Columbia Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, the Lake Koocanusa Monitoring and Research Working Group, and the Selenium Technical Subcommittee. The standards of 0.8 microgram per liter for dissolved selenium in the water column and 15.1 milligrams per kilogram dry weight for fish egg (ovary) tissue (in addition to the muscle and wholebody standards) were adopted into Montana State law in 2020 and approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 2021.

British Columbia, Idaho, Montana

A monitoring framework to assess forest bird population response to landscape scale mosquito suppression using the Incompatible Insect Technique

The Birds, Not Mosquitoes Monitoring and Support Science Working Group detailed methods for monitoring the population response of Hawaiian forest birds during implementation of the Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) on the islands of Maui and Kauaʻi. The group prioritized methods for measuring the influence of mosquito suppression on populations within IIT treatment and control areas and identified focal species for IIT efficacy monitoring in birds. Three primary metrics were established to assess the impact of IIT on vulnerable species: population demography, density, and geographic range. Each metric can be evaluated using multiple methods. This report reviews those methods, with emphasis on approaches supported by pre-IIT baseline data and compatible with a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design for evaluating population responses over time. Focal avian species were selected based on population size estimates, fecundity, and disease susceptibility. We identified ʻākohekohe (Palmeria dolei), ʻiʻiwi (Drepanis coccinea), Maui ʻalauahio (Paroreomyza montana), Hawaiʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens), Kauaʻi ʻamakihi (Chlorodrepanis stejnegeri), Kauaʻi ʻelepaio (Chasiempis sclateri), and ʻanianiau (Magumma parva) as focal species for monitoring population level response to disease suppression. Populations of kiwikiu (Pseudonestor xanthophrys), ʻakikiki (Oreomystis bairdi), akekeʻe (Loxops caeruleirostris), and the ʻiʻiwi population on Kauaʻi may be too small (e.g., <100 individuals) to effectively monitor, and it is unlikely that sufficient data can be collected from these birds to show IIT efficacy in a relatively short time frame (i.e., 5–10 years). Despite the logistical challenges to IIT implementation, there is potential to maintain disease-free status in individual populations of birds. Indeed, the continued existence of these critically endangered species in the wild within or near IIT treatment areas could be considered an accomplishment of IIT, given the current predictions for their extinction in the wild within 5–10 years. Demographic monitoring methods, including territory mapping, nest monitoring, mist-netting, and mark-recapture studies, provide direct evidence of survivorship and reproductive output. When combined with disease surveillance, these approaches could provide the most robust evidence of increased survivorship and productivity resulting from avian malaria suppression via IIT. However, demographic studies require several years of monitoring to achieve statistically robust BACI comparisons of survivorship and are more difficult to implement relative to other approaches. Given that these field efforts are labor-intensive and heavily reliant on personnel availability and funding, demographic monitoring could be conducted when adequate resources permit. On both Maui and Kauaʻi, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was identified as a priority method for monitoring the range, occupancy, and relative abundance of focal species. Autonomous recording units (ARUs) can record bird vocalizations in remote areas for several months. Innovative machine learning techniques permit rapid and semi-autonomous identification of most endemic honeycreepers on each island, maximizing sampling efficiencies and minimizing data processing costs. We predict mosquito suppression could support expansion of focal species into areas where disease transmission is currently excluding these species and expect acoustic monitoring data of focal species to reflect these spatial patterns. Additionally, the relative occupancy and call densities can be monitored temporally and spatially to assess the efficacy of IIT for supporting positive growth in vulnerable bird species. It is not yet clear if PAM is more effective than other methods, such as distance sampling, for detecting trends in the densities of rare species. However, the increased detections resulting from the larger sample size per observation point using ARUs will likely improve accuracy in detecting changes in species’ ranges. Collection of during and after treatment data within the BACI design could help to provide critical information to track avian population response, recovery, and potential range expansion related to IIT efforts. Point-transect distance sampling (point-counts) was prioritized as a method for monitoring population densities of focal species. Extensive historical sampling across focal species’ ranges provides a robust baseline for detecting change. These counts provide updated population densities and can be used to assess the distribution of focal species within IIT treatment areas. However, detecting subtle population changes with traditional distance sampling requires intensive spatial and temporal effort and may be less effective for rare species. To improve resolution, density surface modeling can integrate multiple data sources (e.g., point-counts, PAM, spot-mapping, and resightings) to estimate species-specific densities at finer spatial scales, including within and outside IIT treatment areas. This integrated modeling approach allows for detailed comparisons and may reveal early signs of recovery, including recolonization of formerly occupied sites. A coordinated monitoring strategy can allow managers to evaluate the success of mosquito suppression as a conservation intervention and support adaptive management in the face of emerging challenges.

Hawaii

Nearshore sediment monitoring for the Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM) Program, Puget Sound, western Washington

Chemicals such as metals and organics (polychlorinated biphenyl [PCBs], polybrominated diphenyl ethers [PBDEs], polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAHs], and phthalates) continue to enter Puget Sound, western Washington, from point sources (such as industrial and municipal outfalls) and combined sewer outfalls and non-point sources (such as stormwater runoff). Runoff during storm events has been identified as a major source of contamination entering Puget Sound and has been implicated in the degradation of nearshore habitats and biota. Metals, organic chemicals, and other pollutants are known to accumulate in sediments such as those present along the shoreline of Puget Sound. In addition to chemical contaminants, small plastic particles (known as microplastics), found in marine waters of Puget Sound and suspected of being in aquatic sediments, are a potential concern because they can be ingested by animals and are suspected of transporting sorbed chemicals such as PCBs and metals. The Stormwater Work Group of Puget Sound (SWG) (composed of State and municipal stormwater permittees, and other stakeholders) developed a strategy to address sediment conditions in the nearshore environment of Puget Sound. As part of this strategy, the SWG developed a regional stormwater monitoring strategy designed to inform monitoring requirements in National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) stormwater permits issued by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology). The monitoring program is referred to as the Stormwater Action Monitoring (SAM). The overall focus of the work described in this report is to address one of the goals of SAM, which is to characterize the status, spatial extent, and quality of Puget Sound sediment chemicals in the nearshore urban areas. The nearshore urban areas are defined as areas parallel to established Urban Growth Areas (UGAs) using a spatially balanced probabilistic Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) sampling design. One of the benefits of the GRTS sampling design used for this study is that it allows one to efficiently extrapolate from a relatively small number of sampled nearshore sites to the entire nearshore shoreline within the 2011 defined UGA boundaries of Puget Sound. In addition to characterizing nearshore sediment chemical concentrations, this study also characterized the abundance of microplastics in the nearshore sediment. A total of 41 randomly selected sites were sampled throughout Puget Sound in summer and early autumn of 2016. All sampling sites were located at 6 feet below the Mean Lower Low Water line. The top 2–3 centimeters of sediment were collected using a boat-mounted, pre-cleaned stainless-steel box corer. All chemical samples were sieved to 2 millimeters and placed in appropriate containers for chemical analysis for PCBs, PBDEs, PAHs, phthalates, metals, total organic carbon, and grain size. Pre-sieved sediment samples were stored in glass containers for microplastic analysis. Nearshore sediment chemical concentrations were summarized using numerous statistical approaches to examine the minimum, mean, and maximum concentrations for each of the compounds analyzed and to compare the results to criteria and other nearshore and marine sediment studies. The GRTS sampling design also allowed the authors to assess the percentage of the UGA nearshore environment that did not meet established standards or criteria for each chemical analyzed. Additionally, regression and machine learning statistical analyses were used to examine relations between measured chemical concentrations, and land cover and geologic features at multiple scales within the watersheds adjacent to sampling sites. The influence of marine hydrodynamic factors on nearshore sediment chemical concentrations was statistically evaluated with nonparametric methods by assigning each sampling site to one of five nearshore drift cell types based on its location. The Puget Sound shoreline can be divided into segments, referred to as drift cells, based on the movement of sediment along the shore by waves. Each drift cell type has a unique influence on nearshore sediment transport. The nearshore sediment chemical concentrations for organics and metals generally were low, and in most cases less than Washington State criteria. The concentrations of some PAHs were greater than the criteria, but these exceedances were limited to one or two sites. The results of the probabilistic study design determined that, for the PAHs examined, 96 percent or more of the 1,344 km of shoreline represented by this study had concentrations less than any established criteria. For the remaining organics (PCBs and PBDEs), the probabilistic study design indicates that more than 98 percent of shoreline examined had concentrations less than criteria or proposed standards. For the metals, the results of the study indicate that 100 percent of the nearshore sediment had concentrations less than the criteria. The relations between sediment organic and metal concentrations, and adjacent watershed land cover and the particle size of the samples, were determined to be weakly related. Although weakly related, the particle size of the sediment in a sample typically explained more of the variation in metal concentrations than organics. While the measured watershed attributes adjacent to the sampling sites and sediment size of the samples were weakly related to chemical concentrations, they were significantly related to unique drift cells along the shoreline of Puget Sound known as drift cells. Each drift cell represents a long-term directional transport of sediment from its source to its depositional zone. Sediment chemical concentrations were significantly higher in drift cells with limited sediment movement compared to those with higher sediment transport energy. Microplastics in the nearshore sediment ranged from 0.02 to 0.65 pieces per gram of sediment, with a mean of 0.19 pieces per gram of sediment, and were dominated by small fibers (355–1,000 micrometers). Like chemical concentrations, microplastics concentrations in the nearshore sediment were poorly related to watershed land cover. Although not significantly different, microplastics concentrations generally were higher in the low energy drift cells compared to the high energy drift cells. The results of this study provide a statistically valid status assessment of current nearshore sediment chemical conditions throughout Puget Sound in those areas adjacent to defined UGAs. In addition to the study findings of relatively low concentrations of PCBs, PBDEs, PAHs, phthalates, and metals, the study design provides a statistically valid tool for evaluating changes in these compounds over time if future nearshore sediment assessments are done. Furthermore, the assessment of microplastic abundance represents the first study of its kind that can be used as a benchmark for future evaluations. The results of this study will help inform Ecology in the implementation of monitoring requirements as part of its NPDES stormwater permitting process.

Washington