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Results for “The Seismological Record”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2018

Development of a geodetic component for the U.S. West Coast Earthquake Early Warning System

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system, ShakeAlert, is under development for the West Coast of the United States. This system currently uses the first few seconds of waveforms recorded by seismic instrumentation to rapidly characterize earthquake magnitude, location, and origin time; ShakeAlert recently added a seismic line source algorithm. For large to great earthquakes, magnitudes estimated from the earliest seismic data alone generally saturate. Real‐time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data can directly measure large displacements, enabling accurate magnitude estimates for M w 7 + "> M w 7 + events, possibly before rupture termination. GNSS‐measured displacements also track evolving slip and, alone or in combination with seismic data, constrain finite‐fault models. Particularly for large‐magnitude, long‐rupture events, GNSS‐based magnitude and rupture extent estimates can improve updates to predicted shaking and thus alert accuracy. GNSS data processing centers at ShakeAlert partner institutions provide real‐time streams to the EEW system, and three geodetic EEW algorithms have been developed through the ShakeAlert collaboration. These algorithms will undergo initial testing within ShakeAlert’s computational architecture using a suite of input data that includes simulated real‐time displacements from synthetic earthquakes and GNSS recordings from recent earthquakes worldwide. Performance will be evaluated using metrics and standards consistent with those adopted for ShakeAlert overall. This initial assessment will guide method refinement and synthesis of the most successful features into a candidate geodetic algorithm for the ShakeAlert production system. In parallel, improvements to geodetic networks and streamlining approaches to data processing and exchange will ensure robust geodetic data availability in the event of an earthquake.

West coast↗
USGS2024

What do we know without the catalog? Eliciting prior beliefs from experts for aftershock models

Fitting parametric seismological models to earthquake catalogs often comes with numerical challenges, especially when catalogs are small. An alternative way to quantify parameter values for a seismic region is by eliciting expert opinions on the seismological characteristics that each parameter corresponds to. For instance, expert beliefs on aftershock patterns can be formulated into prior distributions for aftershock parameters, for example, for the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. We illustrate such a method by not only eliciting priors for ETAS parameters for the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a subduction zone with a complex tectonic environment, but also a relatively small catalog. We compare these priors with those suggested by the ETAS literature for global subduction zones, discussing implications for aftershock forecasting for the PNW.

The Seismic Record↗
USGS2021

The 6 May 1947 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, earthquake

The State of Wisconsin is not known for earthquake activity. The authoritative public‐facing U.S. Geological Survey Comprehensive Catalog of earthquakes includes only three small (magnitude < 2) earthquakes in the state, all instrumentally recorded. Although other catalogs include more events in Wisconsin, experience has shown that many types of events, such as explosions and cryoseisms, have made their way into earthquake catalogs in this region. In this short report, I summarize available information about an earthquake that was felt in eastern Wisconsin at 15:27 local time on 6 May 1947. As what appears to be the largest historical earthquake in the State of Wisconsin, it is of public interest, its modest size notwithstanding. It appears that no useful instrumental records exist, due in part to a teleseismic event that occurred approximately 3 min later, generating surface waves that were recorded on early long‐period instruments in the region. Instrumental data may exist for this event but have not been found. Comparing the felt area with information from recent earthquakes in the region, I estimate an intensity magnitude of 3.8 for the event, with a subjectively estimated uncertainty range 3.5–4.1. Relatively strong effects, including reports of broken dishes in Milwaukee, and shaking described as short but especially sharp, suggest that the event may have been among the sprinkling of shallow earthquakes now known to occur in the upper Great Lakes region.

Wisconsin↗
USGS1984

A comparative ground response study near Los Angeles using recordings of Nevada nuclear tests and the 1971 San Fernando earthquake

A comparative ground response study at sites in the Los Angeles region is based on the extensive strong-motion data set recorded in the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and 159 three-component recordings of distant nuclear tests in Nevada. Amplitude spectral ratios computed for the nuclear test data over those frequency bands for which there is an adequate signal-to-noise ratio provide statistically stable estimates of the local ground response related to the type of local geologic conditions. Comparison of the strong-motion data recorded from the 1971 San Fernando earthquake with that recorded at 28 of the same sites for the nuclear tests show that the corresponding amplitude spectral ratios are statistically equivalent for most sites, provided reference stations are chosen to minimize effects on the earthquake data of azimuthal source variations and crustal propagation path. Statistical equivalence of the spectral ratios for the two types of data sources suggests that amplitude spectral ratios computed with respect to the appropriate reference station provide a first-order estimate of local ground response.

California↗
USGS2005

Strong ground motion in the Taipei basin from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake

The Taipei basin, located in northwest Taiwan about 160 km from the epicenter of the Chi-Chi earthquake, is a shallow, triangular-shaped basin filled with low-velocity fluvial deposits. There is a strong velocity contrast across the basement interface of about 600 m/sec at a depth of about 600-700 m in the deeper section of the basin, suggesting that ground motion should be amplified at sites in the basin. In this article, the ground-motion recordings are analyzed to determine the effect of the basin both in terms of amplifications expected from a 1D model of the sediments in the basin and in terms of the 3D structure of the basin. Residuals determined for peak acceleration from attenuation curves are more positive (amplified) in the basin (average of 5.3 cm/ sec2 compared to - 24.2 cm/sec2 for those stations outside the basin and between 75 and 110 km from the surface projection of the faulted area, a 40% increase in peak ground acceleration). Residuals for peak velocity are also significantly more positive at stations in the basin (31.8 cm/sec compared to 20.0 cm/sec out). The correlation of peak motion with depth to basement, while minor in peak acceleration, is stronger in the peak velocities. Record sections of ground motion from stations in and around the Taipei basin show that the largest long-period arrival, which is coherent across the region, is strongest on the vertical component and has a period of about 10-12 sec. This phase appears to be a Rayleigh wave, probably associated with rupture at the north end of the Chelungpu fault. Records of strong motion from stations in and near the basin have an additional, higher frequency signal: nearest the deepest point in the basin, the signal is characterized by frequencies of about 0.3 - 0.4 Hz. These frequencies are close to simple predictions using horizontal layers and the velocity structure of the basin. Polarizations of the S wave are mostly coherent across the array, although there are significant differences along the northwest edge that may indicate large strains across that edge of the basin. The length of each record after the main S wave are all longer at basin stations compared to those outside. This increase in duration of ground shaking is probably caused by amplification of ground motion at basin stations, although coda Q (0.67 - 1.30 Hz) is slightly larger inside the basin compared to those at local stations outside the basin. Durations correlate with depth to basement. These motions are in the range that can induce damage in buildings and may have contributed to the structural collapse of multistory buildings in the Taipei basin.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2019

The current unlikely earthquake hiatus at California’s transform boundary paleoseismic sites

Paleoseismic and historical earthquake records used to quantify earthquake recurrence rates can also be used to test the likelihood of seismically quiescent periods. At principal paleoseismic sites in California on the San Andreas, San Jacinto, Elsinore, and Hayward faults, no ground‐rupturing earthquake has occurred in the last 100 yr, yet this interval is about three times the average interearthquake period for the ensemble of sites. We examine long paleoseismic records from these faults, as they carry most of the transform fault slip on the plate boundary, to see if the current hiatus has any precedent in the last 1000 yr. The selection of sites is designed to sample fault sections unlikely to have ruptured together, so their conditional probabilities of a hiatus can be combined as independent events. We find a 100‐yr hiatus is not predicted by common time‐dependent or time‐independent recurrence models. Paleoearthquake dating uncertainties can allow long open intervals at individual sites or subsets of sites, but do not explain the observed gap in the ensemble. After approximately removing redundancies in the full paleoearthquake record, the time‐independent probability of the current 100‐yr gap is of order 0.3%. This raises several questions. Do we live in a statistically exceptional time? Or does some wide‐scale effect modulate earthquake occurrence among sites over longer timescales? Finally, how should we understand seismic hazard estimates in California if the recurrence models on which they rely seem, at minimum, incomplete? Whether due to a statistical anomaly, some longer‐term modulation of earthquake occurrence, or another cause, our results emphasize that the hiatus of the last century has been exceptional.

California↗
USGS1985

High-frequency observations and source parameters of microearthquakes recorded at hard-rock sites

We have estimated the source parameters of 53 microearthquakes recorded in July 1983 which were aftershocks of the Miramichi, New Brunswick, earthquake that occurred on 9 January 1982. These events were recorded by local three-component digital seismographs at 400 sps/component from 2-Hz velocity transducers sited directly on glacially scoured crystalline basement outcrop. Hypocentral distances are typically less than 5 km, and the hypocenters and the seven digital seismograph stations established all lie essentially within the boundaries of a granitic pluton that encompasses the faults that ruptured during the main shock and major aftershocks. The P-wave velocity is typically 5 km/sec at the surface and at least 6 km/sec at depths greater than about 1 km.

Miramichi↗
USGS1976

Digital telemetry system network installation for the National Earthquake Information Service

A Digital Telemetry System Network, developed by the Albuquerque Seismological Laboratory, was installed for the USGS National Earthquake Information Service (NEIS) during January 1975. NEIS is located in Golden, Colorado. The initial Digital Telemetry System Network consists of four independent digital telemetry systems that provide wide area coverage over most of the United States. The four systems were installed between: Albuquerque, New Mexico to NEIS; St. Louis, Missouri to NEIS; Salt Lake City, Utah to NEIS; and Menlo Park, California to NEIS. Each digital telemetry system will transmit fourteen channels of high accuracy seismic data in a digital format over a standard C-1 grade telephone line. Digitized data words will have a resolution of eleven digital bits plus one sign bit. Each digital telemetry receiver, located at NEIS, will have the capacity to provide fourteen channels of seismic data in a digital format suitable for either on-line digital computer analysis or magnetic tape recording. In addition the data can be presented in an analog format suitable for recording on helicorders or develocorders. This network is the first large scale digital telemetry system used by the U.S. Geological Survey for the transmission of real time seismic data.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2017

PRISM Software: Processing and Review Interface for Strong‐Motion Data

A continually increasing number of high‐quality digital strong‐motion records from stations of the National Strong Motion Project (NSMP) of the U.S. Geological Survey, as well as data from regional seismic networks within the United States, calls for automated processing of strong‐motion records with human review limited to selected significant or flagged records. The NSMP has developed the Processing and Review Interface for Strong Motion data (PRISM) software to meet this need. In combination with the Advanced National Seismic System Quake Monitoring System (AQMS), PRISM automates the processing of strong‐motion records. When used without AQMS, PRISM provides batch‐processing capabilities. The PRISM software is platform independent (coded in Java), open source, and does not depend on any closed‐source or proprietary software. The software consists of two major components: a record processing engine composed of modules for each processing step, and a review tool, which is a graphical user interface for manual review, edit, and processing. To facilitate use by non‐NSMP earthquake engineers and scientists, PRISM (both its processing engine and review tool) is easy to install and run as a stand‐alone system on common operating systems such as Linux, OS X, and Windows. PRISM was designed to be flexible and extensible to accommodate implementation of new processing techniques. All the computing features have been thoroughly tested.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2012

Validation of ground-motion simulations for historical events using SDoF systems

The study presented in this paper is among the first in a series of studies toward the engineering validation of the hybrid broadband ground‐motion simulation methodology by Graves and Pitarka (2010). This paper provides a statistical comparison between seismic demands of single degree of freedom (SDoF) systems subjected to past events using simulations and actual recordings. A number of SDoF systems are selected considering the following: (1) 16 oscillation periods between 0.1 and 6 s; (2) elastic case and four nonlinearity levels, from mildly inelastic to severely inelastic systems; and (3) two hysteretic behaviors, in particular, nondegrading–nonevolutionary and degrading–evolutionary. Demand spectra are derived in terms of peak and cyclic response, as well as their statistics for four historical earthquakes: 1979 M w 6.5 Imperial Valley, 1989 M w 6.8 Loma Prieta, 1992 M w 7.2 Landers, and 1994 M w 6.7 Northridge.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2026

ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System performance during the Mw 7.0 offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake

The 5 December 2024 M w 7.0 Offshore Cape Mendocino earthquake was a challenging test of the U.S. West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system due to its offshore epicenter and limited near‐source station coverage. We analyzed real‐time performance of all components of the ShakeAlert system, including the seismic algorithms (earthquake point‐source integrated code [EPIC] and Finite‐fault rupture Detector [FinDer]), the geodetic algorithm (Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time–peak ground displacement [GFAST‐PGD]), and network telemetry during the event. EPIC created the first solution for this earthquake 15 s after origin time with an initial magnitude estimate of M 5.6 and location error of 10 km from the Advanced National Seismic System epicenter. An early spurious trigger from station CE.89101 fortuitously maintained location accuracy and, correspondingly, magnitude accuracy. FinDer contributed its first solution at 18 s with a location estimate closer to the seismic network and produced two distinct rupture geometries, leading to minor fluctuations in estimated intensity contours. GFAST‐PGD did not meet alerting thresholds but otherwise performed as expected. Network latencies were <2 s for most stations, supporting the rapid detection of this earthquake by the system. Roughly five million alerts were delivered to cell phone devices in California and Oregon during this event. This was also the first instance of a school district‐wide ShakeAlert‐powered system being activated. Comparisons to recorded seismograms demonstrate that the maximum warning times before potentially damaging shaking (intensity 6+) were in the range of 5–55 s. Although the ShakeAlert system provided accurate solutions and useful alert delivery, this earthquake raised awareness of potential issues within the system, including the need for improved offshore location estimates, a combination of solutions from ShakeAlert servers, and handling of spurious triggers.

California↗
USGS2013

Site Response and Basin Waves in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta is an inland delta at the western extent of the Central Valley. Levees were built around swampy islands starting after the Civil War to reclaim these lands for farming. Various studies show that these levees could fail in concert from shaking from a major local or regional earthquake resulting in salty water from the San Francisco Bay contaminating the water in the Delta. We installed seismographs around the Delta and on levees to assess the contribution of site response to the seismic hazard of the levees. Cone penetrometer testing shows that the upper 10 s of meters of soil in the Delta have shear‐wave velocities of about 200 m/s, which would give a strong site response. Seismographs were sited following two strategies: pairs of stations to compare the response of the levees to nearby sites, and a more regional deployment in the Delta. Site response was determined in two different ways: a traditional spectral ratio (TSR) approach of S waves using station BDM of the Berkeley Digital Seismic Net as a reference site, and using SH / SV ratios of noise (or Nakamura’s method). Both estimates usually agree in spectral character for stations whose response is dominated by a resonant peak, but the most obvious peaks in the SH / SV ratios usually are about two‐thirds as large as the main peaks in the TSRs. Levee sites typically have large narrow resonances in the site response function compared to sites in the farmland of the Delta. These resonances, at a frequency of about 1–3 Hz, have amplitudes of about 15 with TSR and 10–12 with Nakamura’s method. Sites on farmland in the Delta also have amplifications, but these are typically broader and not as resonant in appearance. Late (slow) Rayleigh waves were recorded at stations in the Delta, have a dominant period of about one second, and are highly monochromatic. Results from a three‐station array at the Holland Marina suggest that they have a phase velocity of about 600 m/s and arrive at about the same azimuth as the straight‐line back azimuth to the source. A dispersion curve determined for the basin or valley waves yields a shallow velocity profile that increases from about 350 m/s in the upper 0.2 km to about 1.1 km/s at a depth of about 2 km.

California↗
USGS2021

Regional calibration of hybrid ground‐motion simulations in moderate seismicity areas: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben

This study presents the coupling of the spectral decomposition results for anelastic attenuation, stress drop, and site effects with the Graves‐Pitarka (GP) hybrid ground‐motion simulation methodology, as implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) broadband platform (BBP). It is targeted to applications in the Upper Rhine graben (URG), which is among the seismically active areas in western Europe, yet a moderate seismicity area. Our development consists of three main steps: (1) calibration of regional high‐frequency (HF) attenuation properties; (2) modification of the hybrid approach to add compressional waves in the HF computation and examine various strategies to evaluate site amplification factors in the Fourier domain (e.g., V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based or site‐specific factors); (3) testing of the simulations using earthquake records from the URG ( ⁠ 3.7 &lt; M w &lt; 5 "> 3.7 < M w < 5 3.7<Mw<5 ⁠ ). The validation process of the simulated time histories is performed first on rock sites, and, then subsequently at all stations, whatever their site conditions. The performance of the simulations for rock sites is assessed through the standard validation technique in the BBP (comparison of the waveforms, intensity measures, and estimation of the response spectra model bias). We additionally compare the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the simulations and observations, and compute their corresponding bias. The results show that the simulated ground motions match the general characteristics of the recorded motions, and that the model bias generally fluctuates around zero across the broadband frequency range. Hence, the hybrid ground‐motion methodology implemented in the SCEC BBP can be successfully applied outside high‐seismicity areas and outside those areas for which it had been generally calibrated. Our results also show that HF modification and calibration were necessary to improve the fits with the observation, and demonstrate the potential benefits of using site‐specific amplification factors compared to V S 30 "> V S 30 VS30 ‐based amplification factors.

Upper Rhine Graben↗
USGS2009

OxCal: Versatile tool for developing paleoearthquake chronologies: A primer

Ages of paleoearthquakes (events), i.e., evidence of earthquakes inferred from the geologic record, provide a critical constraint on estimation of the seismic hazard posed by an active fault. The radiocarbon calibration program OxCal (4.0.3 and above; Bronk Ramsey 2007, 2001) provides paleoseismologists with a straightforward but rigorous means of estimating these event ages and their uncertainties. Although initially developed for the chronologic modeling of archaeological data from diverse sources (e.g., radiocarbon, historical knowledge, etc.), OxCal is readily adaptable to other disciplines requiring chronological modeling, such as paleoseismology (Fumal et al. 2002; Lindvall et al. 2002; Kelson et al. 2006; Noriega et al. 2006; Lienkaemper and Williams 2007; Yen et al. 2008).

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2004

Earthquake triggering at Alaskan volcanoes following the 3 November 2002 Denali fault earthquake

The 3 November 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake provided an excellent opportunity to investigate triggered earthquakes at Alaskan volcanoes. The Alaska Volcano Observatory operates short-period seismic networks on 24 historically active volcanoes in Alaska, 247-2159 km distant from the mainshock epicenter. We searched for evidence of triggered seismicity by examining the unfiltered waveforms for all stations in each volcano network for ∼ 1 hr after the Mw 7.9 arrival time at each network and for significant increases in located earthquakes in the hours after the mainshock. We found compelling evidence for triggering only at the Katmai volcanic cluster (KVC, 720-755 km southwest of the epicenter), where small earthquakes with distinct P and 5 arrivals appeared within the mainshock coda at one station and a small increase in located earthquakes occurred for several hours after the mainshock. Peak dynamic stresses of ∼0.1 MPa at Augustine Volcano (560 km southwest of the epicenter) are significantly lower than those recorded in Yellowstone and Utah (>3000 km southeast of the epicenter), suggesting that strong directivity effects were at least partly responsible for the lack of triggering at Alaskan volcanoes. We describe other incidents of earthquake-induced triggering in the KVC, and outline a qualitative magnitude/distance-dependent triggering threshold. We argue that triggering results from the perturbation of magmatic-hydrothermal systems in the KVC and suggest that the comparative lack of triggering at other Alaskan volcanoes could be a result of differences in the nature of magmatic-hydrothermal systems.

Alaska↗
USGS1988

Failure of self-similarity for large (Mw > 81/4) earthquakes

Compares teleseismic P-wave records for earthquakes in the magnitude range from 6.0-9.5 with synthetics for a self-similar, omega 2 source model and conclude that the energy radiated by very large earthquakes (Mw > 81/4) is not self-similar to that radiated from smaller earthquakes (Mw < 81/4). Furthermore, in the period band from 2 sec to several tens of seconds, it is concluded that large subduction earthquakes have an average spectral decay rate of omega -1.5. This spectral decay rate is consistent with a previously noted tendency of the omega 2 model to overestimate Ms for large earthquakes.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2012

Extraordinary distance limits of landslides triggered by the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake

The 23 August 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (M w 5.8) was the largest to strike the eastern U.S. since 1897 and was felt over an extraordinarily large area. Although no large landslides occurred, the shaking did trigger many rock and soil falls from steep river banks and natural cliffs in the epicentral area and from steep road cuts along, and northwest of, the Blue Ridge Parkway. We mapped the occurrence of rock falls to determine distance limits that could be compared with those from other documented earthquakes. Studies of previous earthquakes indicated a maximum epicentral distance limit for landsliding of ~60 km for an M 5.8 earthquake; the maximum distance limit for the 2011 earthquake was 245 km, the largest exceedance of the historical limit ever recorded. Likewise, the previous maximum area affected by landslides for this magnitude was 1500 km 2 ; the area affected by landslides in the 2011 earthquake was 33,400 km 2 . These observations provide physical evidence that attenuation of strong shaking for eastern U.S. earthquakes is significantly lower than for plate‐boundary earthquakes. Also, distance limits parallel to the regional structural trend are greater than those that transect the structure, which suggests anisotropic attenuation related to the regional geologic structure. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) at the landslide distance limits is estimated to have been about 0.02–0.04g.

Virginia↗
USGS2017

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude ( M ) ≥4 and 3 M ≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M ≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M ≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

Seismological Research Letters↗