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USGS2025

Decision support tools for brown pelican management in the northern Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico)

Management plans with clear priorities can help to achieve brown pelican Pelecanus occidentalis conservation objectives in the northern Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). Efforts to establish clear priorities can be hindered by information gaps, especially those related to the uncertainty associated with changing conditions that influence brown pelican populations. We addressed these gaps by creating a model that uses island-specific conditions (e.g., geomorphology; predator-related conditions; brown pelican terrestrial nesting, roosting, and loafing habitats) to predict the nest count as a proxy for breeding pairs on the island. We used the model and 2000–2015 brown pelican nest count data to estimate if breeding pair targets that we identified or estimated for 10 U.S Fish and Wildlife Service Gulf Coast Biological Planning Units were met while accounting for uncertainty. Our results indicate that breeding pair targets were met in 7 of the 10 units by existing conditions. Our confidence in judging nest deficits tended to decrease from west to east because the model over-predicted total nests in the east Gulf Coast. Using an island from our data, we show how the model could be used to quantify the uncertainty of nest count outcomes under simulated changes in island conditions. The model indicated that the island's existing conditions most probably result in nests (probability = 0.51) and that increasing the area of nesting habitat (shrubs) could increase the probability of nests from 49% to 70%. Increasing shrub habitat in the model also increased nest count uncertainty by 60%, but this was due to a greater probability of larger nest counts. Our model suggests that nest count uncertainty could be reduced by improving data on island size, shrub area, and predator presence, depending on the unit and how isolated the island is from the mainland. These tools could help managers understand and incorporate the uncertainty associated with creating island conditions that are intended to help achieve brown pelican conservation objectives.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2017

Semi-arid grassland bird responses to patch-burn grazing and drought

As grassland birds of central North America experience steep population declines with changes in land use, management of remaining tracts becomes increasingly important for population viability. The integrated use of fire and grazing may enhance vegetation heterogeneity and diversity in breeding birds, but the subsequent effects on reproduction are unknown. We examined the influence of patch-burn grazing management in shortgrass steppe in eastern Colorado on habitat use and reproductive success of 3 grassland bird species, horned lark (Eremophila alpestris), lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys), and McCown’s longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii), at several spatial scales during 2011 and 2012. Although no simple direct relationship to patch-burn grazing treatment existed, habitat selection depended on precipitation- and management-induced vegetation conditions and spatial scale. All species selected taller-than-expected vegetation at the nest site, whereas at the territory scale, horned larks and McCown’s longspurs selected areas with low vegetation height and sparse cover of tall plants (taller than the dominant shortgrasses). Buntings nested primarily in unburned grassland under average rainfall. Larks and longspurs shifted activity from patch burns during average precipitation (2011) to unburned pastures during drought (2012). Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests varied with time in season, species, weather, and vegetation structure. Daily survival rate of McCown’s longspur nests did not vary with foliar cover of relatively tall vegetation at the nest under average precipitation but declined with increasing cover during drought. At the 200-m scale, increasing cover of shortgrasses, rather than taller plant species, improved DSR of larks and longspurs. These birds experience tradeoffs in the selection of habitat at different spatial scales: tall structure at nests may reduce visual detection by predators and provide protection from sun, wind, and rain, yet taller structure surrounding territories may host nest predators. Patch-burn grazing management in combination with other strategies that retain taller-structured vegetation may help sustain a diversity of breeding habitats for shortgrass birds under varying weather conditions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2012

Evaluating the ability of regional models to predict local avian abundance

Spatial modeling over broad scales can potentially direct conservation efforts to areas with high species-specific abundances. We examined the performance of regional models for predicting bird abundance at spatial scales typically addressed in conservation planning. Specifically, we used point count data on wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) from 2 time periods (1995-1998 and 2006-2007) to evaluate the ability of regional models derived via Bayesian hierarchical techniques to predict bird abundance. We developed models for each species within Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 23 in the upper midwestern United States at 800-ha, 8,000-ha, and approximately 80,000-ha scales. We obtained count data from the Breeding Bird Survey and land cover data from the National Land Cover Dataset (1992). We evaluated predictions from the best models, as defined by an information-theoretic criterion, using point count data collected within an ecological subregion of BCR 23 at 131 count stations in the 1990s and again in 2006-2007. Competing (Deviance Information Criteria <5) blue-winged warbler models accounted for 67% of the variability and suggested positive associations with forest edge and proportion of forest at the 8,000-ha scale, and negative associations with forest patch area (800 ha) and wetness (800 ha and 80,000 ha). The regional model performed best for blue-winged warbler predicted abundances from point counts conducted in Iowa during 1995-1996 ( r s = 0.57; P = 0.14), the survey period that most closely aligned with the time period of data used for regional model construction. Wood thrush models exhibited positive correlations with point count data for all survey areas and years combined ( r s = 0.58, P ≤ 0.001). In comparison, blue-winged warbler models performed worse as time increased between the point count surveys and vintage of the model building data ( r s = 0.03, P = 0.92 for Iowa and r s = 0.13, P = 0.51 for all areas, 2006-2007), likely related to the ephemeral nature of their preferred early successional habitat. Species abundance and sensitivity to changing habitat conditions seems to be an important factor in determining the predictive ability of regional models. Hierarchical models can be a useful tool for concentrating efforts at the scale of management units and should be one of many tools used by land managers, but we caution that the utility of such models may decrease over time for species preferring relatively ephemeral habitats if model inputs are not updated accordingly.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Managing habitat to slow or reverse population declines of the Columbia spotted frog in the Northern Great Basin

Evaluating the effectiveness of habitat management actions is critical to adaptive management strategies for conservation of imperiled species. We quantified the response of a Great Basin population of the Columbia spotted frog ( Rana luteiventris ) to multiple habitat improvement actions aimed to reduce threats and reverse population declines. We used mark-recapture data for 1,394 adult frogs that had been marked by state, federal, and university biologists in 9 ponds representing a single population over a 16-year period from 1997 to 2012. With the use of demographic models, we assessed population-level effects of 1) a grazing exclosure constructed around 6 stock ponds that had been used to water livestock for decades before being fully fenced in 2003, and 2) the construction of 3 new stock ponds in 2003 to provide alternative water sources for livestock and, secondarily, to provide additional frog habitat. These management actions were implemented in response to a decline of more than 80% in population size from 1997 to 2002. We found evidence that excluding cattle from ponds and surrounding riparian habitats resulted in higher levels of frog production (more egg masses), higher adult frog recruitment and survival, and higher population growth rate. We also found that frogs colonized the newly constructed stock ponds within 3 years and frogs began breeding in 2 of them after 5 years. The positive effects of the cattle exclosure and additional production from the new ponds, although notable, did not result in full recovery of the population even 9 years later. This slow recovery may be partly explained by the effects of weather on recruitment rates, particularly the negative effects of harsher winters with late springs and higher fall temperatures. Although our findings point to potential successes of habitat management aimed at slowing or reversing rapidly declining frog populations, our study also suggests that recovering from severe population declines can take many years because of demographic and environmental processes.

Idaho↗

USGS2008

Seasonal survival of radiomarked emperor geese in western Alaska

The population of emperor geese ( Chen canagica ) in western Alaska, USA, declined by >50% from the 1960s to the mid‐1980s and has increased only slightly since. Rates of population increase among arctic geese are especially sensitive to changes in adult survival. Improving adult survival in seasons or geographic areas where survival is low may be the best means of increasing the emperor goose population. We monitored fates of 133 adult female emperor geese that were radiomarked with surgically implanted very high frequency or satellite radiotransmitters from 1999 to 2004 to assess whether monthly survival varied among years, seasons, or geographic areas. Because of uncertainties in determining whether a bird had died based on the radio signal, we analyzed 2 versions of the data. One version used conservative criteria to identify which birds had died based on radio signals and the other used more liberal criteria. In the conservative version of the data we detected 12 mortalities of emperor geese, whereas in the liberal interpretation there were 18 mortalities. In both versions, the models with greatest support indicated that monthly survival varied seasonally and that compared to most seasons estimated monthly survival was lower (φ = 0.95–0.98) in May and August when emperor geese were mainly on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta. From 44% to 47% of annual mortality occurred in those months. Estimated monthly survival was higher (φ = 0.98–1.0) from September through March when emperor geese were at autumn staging or wintering areas and in June and July when birds were nesting, rearing broods, or molting. Estimated annual survival was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.77–0.92) in the best‐supported model when we used conservative criteria to identify mortalities and 0.79 (95% CI = 0.74–0.85) under the best model using liberal mortality criteria. Lower survival in August and May corresponded to periods when subsistence harvest of emperor geese was likely highest. Managers may be able to most effectively influence population growth rate of emperor geese by reducing subsistence harvest on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta in May and August.

Alaska↗

USGS2002

Population dynamics of tule elk at point Reyes National Seashore, California

The presence of locally abundant wildlife raises questions about natural regulation and ecological consequences of overpopulation. We sought to establish precise information about population size, structure, and productivity to examine the role of natural regulation in a closed tule elk ( Cervus elaphus nannodes ) population at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA. We estimated an instantaneous exponential growth rate of 0.19 with an adjusted R 2 = 0.98 during 1998, 20 years after the elk were introduced. We estimated annual survival for adult cows of nearly 0.95. Calf survival from birth through the rut ending during October-November was 0.85. Male calves exhibited higher mortality than female calves. Cow mortality was associated with the calving season. We measured a 42% increase in cow:calf density from 0.733 ha -1 to 1.043 ha -1 during 1996-1998. We observed a density-correlated reduction in the rate of increase and in the cow:call ratios prior to high precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation years, 1993, 1996, and 1997, precipitation >1.23 m year -1 . Given the high population growth rate and model evaluation of management scenarios, park managers will need to use a suite of approaches, such as contraception and removal, to maintain the elk population at levels at or near the closed-range carrying capacity for years between El Niño events.

California↗

USGS2018

Estimates of tidal-marsh bird densities using Bayesian networks

Conserving tidal-marsh bird communities requires strategies to address continuing pressures from human development to the effects of increasing rates of sea-level rise. Knowing tidal-marsh bird distributions and population sizes are important for developing these strategies. In the Northeast United States, where estimates of sea-level rise are 3 times higher than the global average, 5 bird species are tidal-marsh specialists: clapper rail (Rallus crepitans), willet (Tringa semipalmata), Nelson's sparrow (Ammospiza nelsoni), saltmarsh sparrow (A. caudacuta), and seaside sparrow (A. maritima). We used a regional marsh bird survey to develop Bayesian network models to identify factors that influence patch-scale species density and to estimate regional population sizes. We modeled species density as a function of habitat covariates at the patch, local, landscape, and regional spatial scales. Densities were most sensitive to patch location and dimension, patch geomorphic setting, indices of human development, and changes in mean sea level. We estimated 110,000 clapper rails (95% CI = 61,000–159,000), 111,000 willets (95% CI = 70,000–152,000), 7,000 Nelson's sparrows (95% CI = 4,000–10,000), 60,000 saltmarsh sparrows (95% CI = 40,000–80,000), and 234,000 seaside sparrows (95% CI = 112,000–356,000) from the United States–Canada border to, and including, the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, USA. Our abundance estimates can be used to identify priority conservation areas at multiple geographic scales and our models help identify key habitat and landscape components for tidal-marsh restoration and management to benefit tidal-marsh birds and can be modified for other species.

Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island,↗

USGS2019

Occupancy patterns in a reintroduced fisher population during reestablishment

Monitoring population performance in the years following species reintroductions is key to assessing population restoration success and evaluating assumptions made in planning species restoration programs. From 2008–2010 we translocated 90 fishers ( Pekania pennanti ) from British Columbia, Canada, to Washington's Olympic Peninsula, USA, providing the opportunity to evaluate modeling assumptions used to identify the most suitable reintroduction areas in Washington and enhance understanding of fisher habitat associations in the late‐successional forest ecosystems in the coastal Pacific Northwest. From 2013–2016, we deployed 788 motion‐sensing cameras and hair (DNA)‐snaring devices distributed among 263 24‐km 2 primary sampling units across the Olympic Peninsula. Our objectives were to determine whether occupancy patterns of the reestablishing population supported assumptions of the initial habitat assessment models, whether the population had expanded or shifted in distribution since the initial reintroductions, compare physical habitat attributes among land‐management designations, and determine whether the founding fishers had successfully reproduced. We predicted that site occupancy by fishers would be associated with landscapes characterized by high proportional coverage of dense forest canopies and medium‐sized and large trees, a diversity of stand structural classes, and area near the administrative boundary separating wilderness from more intensively managed forest lands. We detected fishers across designated wilderness, federal lands outside of wilderness, and other land designations in proportion to land availability on the Peninsula. We found negligible support for predictions that occupancy by fishers was associated with percent forest cover, tree‐size class, or structural class diversity. Rather, occupancy was strongly associated with lands near the wilderness boundary on both sides. We speculate that the boundary between wilderness and more intensively managed forest lands provided fishers with the most suitable prey in proximity to contiguous expanses of low‐ to mid‐elevation late‐successional forests that provided optimal resting, denning, and security values. Occupancy patterns shifted toward the west and south along a precipitation gradient during the study, indicating that population distribution had not yet stabilized 5–8 years following translocation. Genetic results indicated that ≥2 generations of fishers have been produced on the Peninsula. Annual occupancy rates across the Peninsula (0.08–0.24) were lower than in other previously studied and established fisher populations, indicating that not all habitat was fully occupied or that initial estimates of the extent of habitat was overestimated. The strong selection fishers exhibited for wilderness edge and weak selection against extensive forested wilderness areas suggested that habitat managers should strive for maintaining a suitable interspersion of required forest structures and biotic habitat components, such as prey resource availability.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS1994

Bald eagle nest site characteristics in South Florida

Florida had nearly 20% of the coterminous United States population of nesting bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) in 1990 (U.S. Fish and Wildl. Serv. 1991), yet the nesting ecology of bald eagles in subtropical environments has not been investigated. We examined nest site selection (n = 156 sites) by bald eagles in Florida Bay, Florida, from 1959 to 1990. Black ( Avicennia germinans ) and red mangroves ( Rhizophora mangle ) were used as nest trees almost exclusively (96.9%), and more than half were snags. Eagles also built nests on the ground (n = 3) and raised young on the ground after nests collapsed (n = 5). Eagles preferred (P < 0.05) higher keys (grass, hardwood-buttonwood [ Conocarpus erecta ]) over low-lying keys (mangrove, marsh) for nesting. Management strategies should include the preservation of live and dead mangroves and large, undisturbed keys as potential nesting sites for bald eagles in the subtropical portion of the eagle's range.

Florida↗

USGS1999

Effects of drought on desert tortoise movement and activity

We monitored movement and activity patterns of 38 desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) at 2 locations in the southcentral Mojave Desert during 2 consecutive years differing markedly in winter rainfall. During the first year, winter precipitation was 225% greater than the long-term average for this region, whereas a drought the following year resulted in precipitation that was 25% of the long-term average. These winter rains produced 2 distinct patterns of annual plant productivity: a bloom of annuals the first year, followed by their complete absence the second year. As measured by radiotelemetry, home range size, the number of different burrows used, average distances traveled per day, and levels of surface versus burrow activity were significantly reduced in both populations during the drought year. The pooled distribution of between-observation distances traveled showed a shift favoring shorter-distance movements during the drought year. Differences in levels of winter precipitation between years and the resulting variation of winter annual biomass in the spring appear to play a significant role in desert tortoise movement and activity patterns. Future management and conservation plans for the desert tortoise should consider weather and productivity as important factors influencing annual home range size, number of burrows used, average distances traveled, and activity levels.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2023

Population dynamics and harvest management of eastern mallards

Managing sustainable harvest of wildlife populations requires regular collection of demographic data and robust estimates of demographic parameters. Estimates can then be used to develop a harvest strategy to guide decision-making. Mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ) are an important species in the Atlantic Flyway for many users and they exhibited exponential growth in the eastern United States between the 1970s and 1990s. Since then, estimates of mallard abundance have declined 16%, prompting the Atlantic Flyway Council and United States Fish and Wildlife Service to implement more restrictive hunting regulations and develop a new harvest strategy predicated on an updated population model. Our primary objective was to develop an integrated population model (IPM) for use in an eastern mallard harvest management strategy. We developed an IPM using annual estimates of breeding abundance, 2-season banding and recovery data, and hunter-harvest data from 1998 to 2018. When developing the model, we used novel model selection methods to test various forms of a sub-model for survival including estimating the degree of harvest additivity and any age-specific trends. The top survival sub-model included a negative annual trend on juvenile survival. The IPM posterior estimates for population abundance tracked closely with the observed estimates and estimates of mean annual population growth rate ranged from 0.88 to 1.08. Our population model provided increased precision in abundance estimates compared to survey methods for use in an updated harvest strategy. The IPM posterior estimates of survival rates were relatively stable for adult cohorts, and annual growth rate was positively correlated with the female age ratio, a measure of reproduction. Either or both of those demographic parameters, juvenile survival or reproduction, could be a target for management efforts to address the population decline. The resulting demographic parameters provided information on the equilibrium population size and can be used in an adaptive harvest strategy for mallards in eastern North America.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2019

Activity center selection by northern spotted owls

The federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) has been intensively studied across its range, and habitat needs for the species have influenced forest management in northwestern North America for decades. Dense forest canopies are often reported in the scientific literature and agency management plans as an important habitat attribute for spotted owls, though the means of measuring forest canopy and interpreting species requirements vary across studies and more importantly, among management plans. We used light detection and ranging (lidar) measurements of canopy cover, canopy surface heterogeneity, and upper canopy surface connectivity, and an index of the presence of a competitive invasive species, the barred owl ( S. varia ), in multinomial discrete choice models using a Bayesian framework to evaluate selection of forest cover types by spotted owls in Oregon, USA, 2008–2015. We designated yearly activity centers based on the most biologically significant observation during the nesting season (Mar–Aug), generally centered on the nest tree. Spotted owls selected activity centers with more canopy cover and higher heterogeneity of the canopy surface within 100 m than was available within their territories. The average proportion of canopy cover within 100 m of a spotted owl activity center was 0.79 ± 0.12 (SD; range = 0.34–0.99). The presence of barred owls did not explain variability in selection of spotted owl activity centers, but barred owls might not affect third‐order habitat selection within territories, or our index was too spatially coarse to detect these effects on spotted owl resource selection. We demonstrate that lidar provides researchers and managers with a tool that can accurately measure forest canopies over large areas, and assist in mapping spotted owl habitat.

Oregon↗

USGS2016

Effects of haying on breeding birds in CRP grasslands

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is a voluntary program that is available to agricultural producers to help protect environmentally sensitive or highly erodible land. Management disturbances of CRP grasslands generally are not allowed unless authorized to provide relief to livestock producers during severe drought or a similar natural disaster (i.e., emergency haying and grazing) or to improve the quality and performance of the CRP cover (i.e., managed haying and grazing). Although CRP grasslands may not be hayed or grazed during the primary bird-nesting season, these disturbances may have short-term (1 yr after disturbance) and long-term (≥2 yr after disturbance) effects on grassland bird populations. We assessed the effects of haying on 20 grassland bird species in 483 CRP grasslands in 9 counties of 4 states in the northern Great Plains, USA between 1993 and 2008. We compared breeding bird densities (as determined by total-area counts) in idle and hayed fields to evaluate changes 1, 2, 3, and 4 years after haying. Haying of CRP grasslands had either positive or negative effects on grassland birds, depending on the species, the county, and the number of years after the initial disturbance. Some species (e.g., horned lark [ Eremophila alpestris ], bobolink [ Dolichonyx oryzivorus ]) responded positively after haying, and others (e.g., song sparrow [ Melospiza melodia ]) responded negatively. The responses of some species changed direction as the fields recovered from haying. For example, densities for common yellowthroat ( Geothlypis trichas ), sedge wren ( Cistothorus platensis ), and clay-colored sparrow ( Spizella pallida ) declined the first year after haying but increased in the subsequent 3 years. Ten species showed treatment × county interactions, indicating that the effects of haying varied geographically. This long-term evaluation on the effects of haying on breeding birds provides important information on the strength and direction of changes in bird populations following a disturbance. Results from this study can help guide management of CRP and other grasslands and inform future agricultural programs that address biomass energy production. © 2016 This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2017

Snowshoe hare multi-level habitat use in a fire-adapted ecosystem

Prescribed burning has the potential to improve habitat for species that depend on pyric ecosystems or other early successional vegetation types. For species that occupy diverse plant communities over the extent of their range, response to disturbances such as fire might vary based on post-disturbance vegetation dynamics among plant communities. Although responses of snowshoe hares ( Lepus americanus ) to fire have been studied in conifer-dominated forests in northern parts of the species’ range, there is a lack of information on snowshoe hare habitat use in fire-dependent communities in southern parts of their range. We used global positioning system (GPS) and very high frequency (VHF) radio-collars to monitor the habitat use of 32 snowshoe hares in a scrub-oak ( Quercus ilicifolia )-pitch pine ( Pinus rigida ) barrens complex in northeastern Pennsylvania where prescribed fire has been used for habitat restoration. The area contained stands that underwent prescribed burning 1–6 years prior to our study. Also, we investigated fine-scale determinants of habitat use within stands. We found that regardless of season, hares did not select for areas that had been burned within 6 years prior. Hares primarily used stands of older scrub oak, conifer, or hardwoods, which contained dense understory vegetation and canopy cover. Hare habitat use also was positively associated with stand edges. Our results suggest that hares do not respond to prescribed burning of scrub oak in the short-term. In addition, by focusing on structural determinants of habitat use, rather than broad-scale characteristics such as stand type, management strategies for snowshoe hares can be adapted over the extent of their range despite the multitude of different land cover types across which the species occurs.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2025

Exploring the exploitation of migratory moths by radio-marked grizzly bears in Wyoming

Grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) feeding on migratory army cutworm moths ( Euxoa auxiliaris ) was first documented by the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team (IGBST) during the early 1980s in the southeastern portion of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). Since those initial observations, use of this seasonally available food resource by grizzly bears has grown substantially. As of 2023, we have documented 4,754 observations of grizzly bears feeding or digging at high-elevation talus slopes. We used those records to identify 36 unique moth sites in the GYE, assessed geographic characteristics of these sites, and documented chronology and frequency of use by grizzly bears. We used occurrences of radio-collared grizzly bears to identify a sample of bears that foraged at moth sites and investigated characteristics of fidelity, duration, diel activity, and movement patterns. Grizzly bears exhibited high fidelity to specific moth sites within and across years. Bears showed approximately 50% reductions in movement metrics while using sites, albeit with increased activity patterns. Estimates of feeding metrics by females exceeded those of males in intensity and duration of both use and daily activity. Given increasing human impacts and interest in observing this feeding interaction, quantifying metrics that describe the spatial and temporal patterns of moth site use by grizzly bears could be beneficial for future management. Further analyses are needed to fully examine the relationship between caloric influences of moth use on grizzly bear demographic rates.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2006

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

The population of dusky Canada geese ( Branta canadensis occidentalis ; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

An integrated population model for harvest management of Atlantic brant

Atlantic brant ( Branta bernicla hrota ) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗