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USGS2025

Integrated Hydro-terrestrial Modeling 2.0: Progress and path forward on building a national capability

Growing societal pressures on U.S. water resources and the challenges inherent in understanding how future water risks may evolve are driving major investments to improve our knowledge of the integrated water cycle. This improved understanding as captured in innovations in our data, knowledge, and modeling capabilities, needs to be accelerated through better integration and coordination across scientific disciplines, programs, and U.S. agencies. The Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) community holds promise to accelerate the progress required to manage the U.S. water resources sustainably, equitably, and effectively. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates research on the impacts of global change on the water cycle through interagency collaboration. USGCRP agencies and their partners jointly held the IHTM 2.0 workshop for U.S. federal and non-federal scientists and managers in fall 2023, aiming to advance community modeling and integrated water resources management capabilities following open science principles. This workshop focused on developing both national and regional testbeds that employ state-of-the-art modeling approaches to explore gaps and opportunities for improving the representation and extensibility of hydrologic processes and modeling. Integrated regional testbeds in Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, Colorado River Basin, and Gulf Coast/Mississippi regions were proposed to leverage existing investments and seek actionable collaboration on issues such as water extremes, water quality, water use, and urbanization. Collaborations focused on advancing iterative cycles of model development and testing offer a means for regional scale studies to inform national scale modeling applications and yield nationally consistent modeling frameworks that are also locally relevant. This presentation will highlight key takeaways, findings, and future directions for the IHTM community that have been laid out in the IHTM 2.0 workshop report.

Report↗

USGS2026

Visioning ecologically diverse and harmonious futures of Korea in Good Anthropocene

1.The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), a buffer between North and South Korea, holds profound historical, cultural and ecological significance, as well as exceptional potential for conservation and transformation. This study explores ecologically diverse and peaceful futures for the Korean Peninsula by envisioning the DMZ as a landscape for harmonious human–nature co-existence. 2.Using the Nature Futures Framework ( NFF ) and the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes ( SoGA ) approach, we co-developed four ‘Living in Harmony with Nature’ visions that reflect diverse values and meanings of nature for sustainable and well-being oriented futures in Korea. 3.These visions emphasize balancing human activities with ecological integrity, reimagining the DMZ as a space for peace, restoration and shared stewardship. They express citizens' perspectives on aspirational and inclusive futures, highlighting existing initiatives as levers for change and intersectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration as key enabling conditions. 4.This visioning process demonstrates the role of the science-policy-society interface, diverse stakeholder engagement and integration of history, culture and social cohesion. This paper reflects on the lessons from this process and discusses implications for future scenario development—particularly how a whole-of-society approach can help identify policy options and societal transformations that advance nature–people-positive futures in Korea and beyond.

Korean Peninsula↗

USGS2007

A shifting mosaic of scholarly publishing, scientific delivery, and future impact changing the face of learned societies

Nonprofit scientific societies hope that their activities advance their particular mission and impact their profession and, in the broadest sense, humanity in positive ways. The digital age has provided unprecedented mechanisms to enhance the delivery of science to the world. The marketplace of scientific publishing is a rapidly shifting mosaic of challenges and opportunities, and the responses of nonprofit and commercial publishers vary widely, but their outcomes are still uncertain. The response of the American Society of Mammalogists (ASM) provides an example of how a relatively small society has altered its scientific delivery to enhance member benefits while attempting to sustain its economic viability. Since 2000, ASM has moved from a self-publishing, break-even, print-only model to a copublishing agreement with a commercial publisher (Alliance Communications Group, a division of Allen Press, Inc., Lawrence, Kansas), which now offers members various print and electronic options and generates a shared royalty. Although it is too early to gauge the economic impact of these changes, the ASM leadership clearly attempted to signal its desire for members to view their society as a package of opportunities for edification and involvement rather than just a provider of serial subscriptions. Future challenges facing nonprofit scientific societies include open access, fiscal realities, archiving of publications, and scientific and societal impact; future opportunities include a strengthening of member responsibilities and professionalism, development of data registries to enhance scientific progress, and bundling of like societies. The manner in which nonprofit scientific societies respond to these challenges and opportunities will no doubt affect their sustainability and future impact. ?? 2007 American Society of Mammalogists.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2011

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2019

Climate change adaptation for coastal national wildlife refuges

National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with managers of the North Carolina Coastal Refuges Complex, Cape Romain NWR, South Carolina, and other local interested partners to assist with their long-term planning under uncertain conditions regarding sea-level rise and other global change processes. Researchers are using a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, including formal decision science for systematically analyzing management alternatives and scenario planning methods for engaging with stakeholders to explore possible futures. These approaches are aimed at helping NWR staff develop management objectives, identify and weigh potential management actions for adaptation, and generate decision-support tools and models. Outcomes and products from these efforts will aid managers as they plan for and adapt to the complex challenges facing the NWR system as changing climate and other conditions make their work increasingly more difficult.

Final Project Memorandum↗

USGS2023

Status and trends of the Lake Huron prey fish community, 1976-2022

The United States Geological Survey-Great Lakes Science Center has monitored annual changes in the offshore prey fish community of Lake Huron since 1973. Monitoring of prey fish populations in Lake Huron is based on a bottom trawl survey that targets demersal (benthic) species and an acoustic-midwater trawl survey that targets pelagic species and life stages. Status of the main basin prey fish community in 2022 was considered ‘Fair’ due to sustained improvements in native species status but species diversity that remains below desired levels. Current lake conditions, characterized by ongoing oligotrophication, seem to favor native coregonines like Bloater ( Coregonus artedi ), which in the main basin has exhibited signs of population growth and strong recruitment in recent years, and Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ), whose biomass in the North Channel increased for the second consecutive year in 2022. In contrast, conditions in the main basin are less favorable for exotic prey fish such as Alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ), whose population collapsed in 2014 and has not recovered, and Rainbow Smelt ( Osmerus mordax ), which remains the second-most abundant prey species in the main basin but has produced multiple weak year classes over the past decade including in 2022. Status of benthic prey fish in the main basin in 2022 depended on species. As in prior years, the native sculpin community in 2022 consisted primarily of Deepwater Sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsoni ) because Slimy Sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ) has become exceedingly rare. In contrast, biomass of the ecologically similar Round Goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ), an exotic species, reached an all-time high in 2022. Use of complementary surveys (bottom trawl, acoustics) remains important for evaluating prey fish status in Lake Huron, where prey fish community dynamics vary by basin and prey fish responses to changing environmental conditions depend on species and/or habitat.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2020

Global challenges for nitrogen science-policy interactions: Towards the International Nitrogen Management System (INMS) and improved coordination between multi-lateral environmental agreements

Human interference with the nitrogen cycle has doubled reactive nitrogen inputs to the global biosphere over the past century, leading to changes across multiple environmental issues that require urgent action. Nitrogen fertilizers and biological nitrogen fixation have allowed benefits of increased crop harvest and livestock production, while in some areas there is insufficient nitrogen to fertilize crops. Whether in excess or deficit, nitrogen losses from its inefficient use are causing a combination of freshwater and marine pollution, air pollution, alteration of climate balance, stratospheric ozone loss, biodiversity loss and reduction of soil quality. The resulting nitrogen pollution affects human health, well-being and livelihoods. Scientific efforts have begun to bring these issues together. However, there is still a high degree of fragmentation between research on the different benefits and threats of reactive nitrogen and between the respective policy frameworks, especially at the global scale. We argue that a more joined-up approach to managing the global nitrogen cycle is needed to develop the ‘gravity of common cause’ between nitrogen issues and to avoid policy trade-offs. We describe how a coherent system for science evidence provision is being developed to support policy development through the ‘International Nitrogen Management System’ (INMS). There is now a matching challenge to bring together the multiple policy agreements relevant for nitrogen as a foundation to address synergies/trade-offs and to set priorities. Based on review of existing frameworks, we outline the concept for an Interconvention nitrogen coordination mechanism. This could make a major contribution to multiple Sustainable Development Goals by stimulating the next generation of international nitrogen strategies: maximizing the benefits of efficient nitrogen use, while minimizing its many environmental threats.

Book chapter↗

USGS2016

The estimated six-year mercury dry deposition across North America

Dry deposition of atmospheric mercury (Hg) to various land covers surrounding 24 sites in North America was estimated for the years 2009 to 2014. Depending on location, multiyear mean annual Hg dry deposition was estimated to range from 5.1 to 23.8 μg m –2 yr –1 to forested canopies, 2.6 to 20.8 μg m –2 yr –1 to nonforest vegetated canopies, 2.4 to 11.2 μg m –2 yr –1 to urban and built up land covers, and 1.0 to 3.2 μg m –2 yr –1 to water surfaces. In the rural or remote environment in North America, annual Hg dry deposition to vegetated surfaces is dominated by leaf uptake of gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), contrary to what was commonly assumed in earlier studies which frequently omitted GEM dry deposition as an important process. Dry deposition exceeded wet deposition by a large margin in all of the seasons except in the summer at the majority of the sites. GEM dry deposition over vegetated surfaces will not decrease at the same pace, and sometimes may even increase with decreasing anthropogenic emissions, suggesting that Hg emission reductions should be a long-term policy sustained by global cooperation.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Managing for a changing climate: A bended interdisciplinary climate course

We developed a blended (or hybrid) interactive course— Managing for a Changing Climate —that provides a holistic view of climate change. The course results from communication with university students and natural and cultural resource managers as well as the need for educational efforts aimed at the public, legislators, and decision-makers. Content includes the components of the physical climate system, natural climate variability, anthropogenic drivers of climate change, climate models and projections, climate assessments, energy economics, environmental policy, vulnerabilities to climate hazards, impacts of climate change, and decision-making related to climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. To convey most of the content, the course-development team created over 50 short videos (3–10 min each) in partnership with experts from a variety of academic, government, and industry institutions. The blended course has been offered as an upper-division, undergraduate course in the Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability and School of Meteorology (four times) and College of International Studies (in Italy, once) at the University of Oklahoma with over 100 total students. The course has also been presented online-only at no cost to the participants in four fall semesters with over 1,000 total registrations. Videos created for this course are freely available on the YouTube page of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. This course and its associated materials comprise high-quality, formal climate training and education that can be adapted to other formal and informal education settings beyond the walls of the university.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗

USGS2024

The impact of future changes in climate on breeding waterfowl pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

Millions of small (< 10 ha) waterbodies embedded in grassland and agroecosystems in midcontinental North America provide breeding habitat to an estimated 50–80% of North America’s migratory ducks. Tens of millions of dollars are invested annually to conserve and enhance upland and wetland habitats for breeding ducks by prioritizing locations predicted to have high densities of breeding pairs under average precipitation conditions. An implicit assumption of this approach is that the distribution of breeding habitat remains relatively static. Climate change is an identified risk to this strategy. To assess this assumption and plan for potential forthcoming conditions, we estimated changes in potential breeding duck pairs under different climate scenarios by combining results of 1) a mechanistic hydrology model that simulates ecosystem processes for a subset of wetlands distributed across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region (USPPR); 2) four downscaled climate model projections at mid- and late-century time horizons; and 3) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service multi-decadal datasets and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models. We conducted virtual and in-person informational sessions with partners to inform them on the best practices of using downscaled global circulation models and approaches for climate scenario planning. This close coordination led to a joint presentation at a monthly North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center seminar. We are also co-developing simulated wetland- waterfowl responses under different climate futures for wetlands. Information from these robust predictions of waterfowl habitat and settling patterns in this region provides land-management agencies insights in prioritizing current conservation actions given uncertainty. In addition, understanding how many breeding pairs the USPPR might support in coming decades will likely influence overall breeding population sizes and sustainable harvest objectives across North America.

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dak↗

USGS2021

Dynamic Energy Budget modelling to predict eastern oyster growth, reproduction, and mortality under river management and climate change scenarios

Eastern oysters growing in deltaic Louisiana estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico must tolerate considerable salinity variation from natural climate variability (e.g., rainfall and stream run-off pushing isohalines offshore; tropical storms pushing isohalines inshore) and man-made diversions and siphons releasing freshwater from the Mississippi River. These salinity variations are predicted to increase with future climate change because of the increased frequency of stronger storms and also in response to proposed large-scale river diversions. Increased Mississippi River flow into coastal estuaries from river diversions, along with potential changes in rainfall and stream run-off from climate change will alter spatial and temporal salinity patterns. In this study we used an individual Dynamic Energy Budget model to predict growth and reproductive potential of eastern oysters across observed and simulated salinity gradients corresponding to different climate and river management scenarios. We used validated model outputs of salinity from a coupled hydrology-hydrodynamic model to assess the current impacts of Davis Pond diversion discharge on oysters located downstream. Under a high diversion discharge scenario oyster growth potential was reduced by 9%, 4%, and 1% in Upper, Mid, and Lower Bay locations, respectively, as compared to a limited discharge year. Reproductive outputs decreased by 34% and 2% in the Upper and Lower Bay locations, respectively, and increased by 2% at the Mid Bay site. In scenarios combining predicted increased temperature with the effect of diversions, all oysters located in the Upper and Mid Bay sites died due to severe summer conditions (high temperatures combined with low salinity). Overall, oysters in down-estuary locations, influenced by both estuarine river management and gulf conditions demonstrated significant tolerance to changing salinity and temperature conditions from diversions alone and when combined with climate change. In contrast, oysters located up-estuary, and exposed to more extreme salinity impacts from river management, demonstrated potentially lethal impacts through direct mortality, and reduced sustainability through decrease in reproductive effort. These predictions at the individual level may translate into less sustainable populations in the most extreme scenarios; restoration and production plans would benefit from accounting for these impacts on reproductive output particularly as decision makers seek to restore critical oyster areas.

Louisiana↗

USGS2013

Genetic population structure of muskellunge in the Great Lakes

We quantified genetic relationships among Muskellunge Esox masquinongy from 15 locations in the Great Lakes to determine the extent and distribution of measurable population structure and to identify appropriate spatial scales for fishery management and genetic conservation. We hypothesized that Muskellunge from each area represented genetically distinct populations, which would be evident from analyses of genotype data. A total of 691 Muskellunge were sampled ( n = 10–127/site) and genetic data were collected at 13 microsatellite loci. Results from a suite of analyses (including pairwise genetic differentiation, Bayesian admixture prediction, analysis of molecular variance, and tests of isolation by distance) indicated the presence of nine distinct genetic groups, including two that were approximately 50 km apart. Geographic proximity and low habitat complexity seemed to facilitate genetic similarity among areas, whereas Muskellunge from areas of greater habitat heterogeneity exhibited high differentiation. Muskellunge from most areas contained private alleles, and mean within-area genetic variation was similar to that reported for other freshwater fishes. Management programs aimed at conserving the broader diversity and long-term sustainability of Muskellunge could benefit by considering the genetically distinct groups as independent fisheries, and individual spawning and nursery habitats could subsequently be protected to conserve the evolutionary potential of Muskellunge.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2020

U.S. Geological Survey 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption response in Hawai'i—After-action review

The 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption lasted 107 days, and now ranks as the most destructive event at Kilauea since 1790, and as one of the most costly volcanic disasters in U.S. history. Multiple simultaneous hazard events unfolded, including sustained seismic activity leading to collapse at the summit of Halema'uma'u crater and severe damage to the HVO facility, with additional eruption of lava in the Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone that progressively grew to a total of 24 fissure openings. In response to the complex and uncertain nature of the eruption, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team activities tended to coalesce around several interrelated core functional areas: science operations, emergency management and administration, and external communications. Upon cessation of the eruption, the USGS Hazard Response Executive Committee charged the Alaska Regional Office to lead an After-Action Review team, which focused on two basic questions: (1) what went well, and why?; and (2) what can be improved, and how? The purpose of the After-Action Review is to identify priorities for programmatic or policy improvements that the USGS can feasibly implement to advance strategic preparation for future disasters, and thereby reduce public vulnerabilities. Specifically, the review is intended to help USGS respond even better to the next eruption in Hawai'i or elsewhere by advancing any of the following goals: Design better planning scenarios; Enhance response team effectiveness; Assist local decision makers; Promote new areas of strategic research; and Streamline administrative, finance, and Incident Management Team support functions during a crisis to secure continuity of operations and essential records management.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Barkley Canyon gas hydrates: A synthesis based on two decades of seafloor observation and remote sensing

Barkley Canyon is one of the few known sites worldwide with the occurrence of thermogenic gas seepage and formation of structure-II and structure-H gas hydrate mounds on the seafloor. This site is the location of continuous seafloor monitoring as part of the Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) cabled observatory off the west coast off Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We combine repeat remotely operated vehicle (ROV) seafloor video observations, mapping with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), ship-, ROV-, and AUV-based identification of gas flares, as well as seismic and Chirp data to investigate the distribution of fluid migration pathways. Geologically, the site with the prominent gas hydrate mounds and associated fluid seepage is covering an area of ∼0.15 km 2 and is situated on a remnant of a rotated fault block that had slipped off the steep flanks of the north-east facing canyon wall. The gas hydrate mounds, nearly constant in dimension over the entire observation period, are associated with gas and oil seepage and surrounded by debris of chemosynthetic communities and authigenic carbonate. The formation of gas hydrate at and near the seafloor requires additional accommodation space created by forming blisters at the seafloor that displace the regular sediments. An additional zone located centrally on the rotated fault block with more diffuse seepage (∼0.02 km 2 in extent) has been identified with no visible mounds, but with bacterial mats, small carbonate concretions, and clam beds. Gas venting is seen acoustically in the water column up to a depth of ∼300 m. However, acoustic water-column imaging during coring and ROV dives showed rising gas bubbles to much shallower depth, even <50 m, likely a result of degassing of rising oil droplets, which themselves cannot be seen acoustically. Combining all observations, the location of the gas hydrate mounds is controlled by a combination of fault-focused fluid migration from a deeper reservoir and fluid seepage along more permeable strata within the rotated slope block. Fluids must be provided continuously to allow the sustained presence of the gas hydrate mounds at the seafloor.

Barkley Canyon↗

USGS2013

Summary of science, activities, programs, and policies that influence the rangewide conservation of Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

The Greater Sage-Grouse, has been observed, hunted, and counted for decades. The sagebrush biome, home to the Greater Sage-Grouse, includes sagebrush-steppe and Great Basin sagebrush communities, interspersed with grasslands, salt flats, badlands, mountain ranges, springs, intermittent creeks and washes, and major river systems, and is one of the most widespread and enigmatic components of Western U.S. landscapes. Over time, habitat conversion, degradation, and fragmentation have accumulated across the entire range such that local conditions as well as habitat distributions at local and regional scales are negatively affecting the long-term persistence of this species. Historic patterns of human use and settlement of the sagebrush ecosystem have contributed to the current condition and status of sage-grouse populations. The accumulation of habitat loss, persistent habitat degradation, and fragmentation by industry and urban infrastructure, as indicated by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) findings, presents a significant challenge for conservation of this species and sustainable management of the sagebrush ecosystem. Because of the wide variations in natural and human history across these landscapes, no single prescription for management of sagebrush ecosystems (including sage-grouse habitats) will suffice to guide the collective efforts of public and private entities to conserve the species and its habitat. This report documents and summarizes several decades of work on sage-grouse populations, sagebrush as habitat, and sagebrush community and ecosystem functions based on the recent assessment and findings of the USFWS under consideration of the Endangered Species Act. As reflected here, some of these topics receive a greater depth of discussion because of the perceived importance of the issue for sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse populations. Drawing connections between the direct effects on sagebrush ecosystems and the effect of ecosystem condition on habitat condition, and finally the connection between habitat quality and sage-grouse population dynamics remains an important goal for science, management, and conservation. This effort is necessary, despite the perception that these complicated, indirect relations are difficult to characterize and manage, and the many advances in understanding and application developed toward this end have been documented here to help inform regional planning and policy decisions.

Arizona;California;Colorado;Montana;Nebraska;Nevad↗

USGS2023

Prediction of the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations at groundwater depths used for drinking-water supply in the Puget Sound basin, Washington, 2004–19

The Puget Sound basin encompasses the 13,700-square-mile area that drains to the Puget Sound and the adjacent marine waters of Washington State. Well more than 4 million people live within the basin, with numbers continuing to increase, who rely on the basin’s natural resources including groundwater. The Puget Sound Partnership was created by a Washington State statute to implement a science-based recovery of the Puget Sound to help address impacts to these resources. As part of the recovery, the partnership developed the Puget Sound Vital Signs as measures of ecosystem health that guide the assessment of progress toward Puget Sound recovery goals. The Puget Sound Partnership Leadership Council adopted a Drinking Water Vital Sign associated with human health and quality of life, recognizing certain indicators as integral to the sustainability of Puget Sound recovery efforts. One such Vital Sign indicator was the vulnerability of groundwater throughout the aquifers of the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations as defined by the probability of exceeding 2 milligrams/liter (mg/L) at a specific location and well depth. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) led the effort to characterize groundwater vulnerability. For this study, groundwater vulnerability refers to a probability with which a contaminant applied at or near the land surface can migrate to the aquifer of interest for a given set of land-use practices. Nitrate concentration data were selected for evaluation because elevated nitrate concentrations are typically caused by anthropogenic activities and have been associated with deleterious impacts on human health. To identify groundwater vulnerability to elevated nitrate concentrations, logistic regression was used to relate anthropogenic (human associated) and natural variables to the occurrence of elevated nitrate concentrations in untreated groundwater from large public water supply system wells found within the Washington State Department of Health Sentry database. Variables that were analyzed included well depth, soil hydraulic conductivity, precipitation, population density, fertilizer application amounts, and land-use types. Statistically significant models that predicted the probabilities of groundwater nitrate concentrations greater than 2 mg/L based on the predictor variables were created for the time periods 2000–04, 2005–09, 2010–14, and 2015–19. For all time periods, well depth and a measure of the abundance of urban and agricultural land over or near the well consistently helped explain the vulnerability of the well to elevated nitrate concentrations defined as a probability of exceeding 2 mg/L of nitrate. Precipitation and (or) soil hydraulic conductivity were also important predictor variables in the models. The models for each time period were used to create maps of groundwater vulnerability at 150- and 300-foot depths throughout the Puget Sound basin. As expected, the most vulnerable locations were associated with shallower well depths and increased agriculture and urban land cover. Across all four time periods, groundwater vulnerability throughout the Puget Sound was low, with probabilities of exceeding 2 mg/L concentrations of nitrate at depths at 150 and 300 feet typically less than 50 percent. Results also found a slight decrease in probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations throughout the basin over time. More specifically, additional statistical tests found that groundwater with probabilities of less than about 60 percent declined from 2000 to 2019 and represented more than 75 percent of the modeled Puget Sound basin aquifer. Wells with greater than 60 percent probability increased over the same time period but represented only about 25 percent of the aquifer. The maps and statistical analysis presented in the study provide valuable and informative evaluation of the vulnerability of groundwater in the Puget Sound basin to elevated nitrate concentrations. The probability maps do not represent measured nitrate concentrations in groundwater, but rather they present the probability that nitrate concentrations exceed 2 mg/L. The models and predictions from this study are a viable indicator for the Puget Sound Partnership’s Healthy Human Population—Drinking Water Vital Sign. The logistic regression modeling approach presented here benefits water managers by allowing them to assess temporal trends in a range of probabilities, explore vulnerability changes as new regional land cover and anthropogenic data are generated, and distinguish vulnerabilities at different depths within the aquifer.

Washington↗

USGS2011

Global seabird responses to forage fish depletion - One-third for the birds

Determining the form of key predator-prey relationships is critical for understanding marine ecosystem dynamics. Using a comprehensive global database, we quantified the effect of fluctuations in food abundance on seabird breeding success. We identified a threshold in prey (fish and krill, termed “forage fish”) abundance below which seabirds experience consistently reduced and more variable productivity. This response was common to all seven ecosystems and 14 bird species examined within the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. The threshold approximated one-third of the maximum prey biomass observed in long-term studies. This provides an indicator of the minimal forage fish biomass needed to sustain seabird productivity over the long term.

Science↗

USGS2025

Ten more years of the golden pheasant (Chrysolophus pictus) on Maui, Hawaiian Islands

Since the introduction of the Golden Pheasant ( Chrysolophus pictus ) to Haleakalā volcano, Maui, three decades ago, subsequent reports have hinted at an expansion of this nascent population. We draw from a variety of data sources to learn about this pheasant's present status on Maui. First, forest bird surveys conducted every five years revealed that the frequency of Golden Pheasant detections has greatly increased, and the bird has both maintained its former distribution and expanded eastward into Haleakalā National Park (NP). Second, reports to eBird from The Nature Conservancy's Waikamoi Preserve, where Golden Pheasants first appeared on Maui, demonstrate that the frequency of observations has increased and is strongly seasonal, predominantly in the spring. Third, autonomous recording units monitoring endangered forest birds recorded pheasants too, adding new locations. Finally, trail cameras set to monitor mammals picked up pheasants as well, showing males of two color morphs: original “wild-type” and “dark-throated.” Trail cameras also documented a small juvenile at Waikamoi Preserve and both females and males in Haleakalā NP. By “connecting the dots” of mapped occurrences, we traced the pheasant's progression through a narrow band of subalpine cloud forest with open understory, extending from Waikamoi Preserve eastward to upper Kīpahulu Valley, a distance of 14 km. In summary, this body of evidence supports the claim that the Golden Pheasant has established a self-sustaining population on Maui, and we propose that the species' success there may be attributed to the minimal influence of predators and the absence of competing gallinaceous birds in its preferred habitat.

Hawaii↗