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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Spatiotemporal modeling of dengue fever risk in Puerto Rico

Dengue Fever (DF) is a mosquito vector transmitted flavivirus and a reemerging global public health threat. Although several studies have addressed the relation between climatic and environmental factors and the epidemiology of DF, or looked at purely spatial or time series analysis, this article presents a joint spatio-temporal epidemiological analysis. Our approach accounts for both temporal and spatial autocorrelation in DF incidence and the effect of temperatures and precipitation by using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We fitted several space-time areal models to predict relative risk at the municipality level and for each month from 1990 to 2014. Model selection was performed according to several criteria: the preferred models detected significant effects for temperature at time lags of up to four months and for precipitation up to three months. A boundary detection analysis is incorporated in the modeling approach, and it was successful in detecting municipalities with historically anomalous risk.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2019

Interactions between resident risk perceptions and wildfire risk mitigation: Evidence from simultaneous equations modeling

Fire science emphasizes that mitigation actions on residential property, including structural hardening and maintaining defensible space, can reduce the risk of wildfire at a home. Accordingly, a rich body of social science literature investigates the determinants of wildfire risk mitigation behaviors of residents living in fire-prone areas. Here, we investigate relationships among wildfire hazards, residents’ risk perceptions, and conditions associated with mitigation actions using a combination of simulated wildfire conditions, household survey responses, and professionally assessed parcel characteristic data. We estimate a simultaneous model of these data that accounts for potential direct feedbacks between risk perceptions and parcel-level conditions. We also compare the use of self-reported versus assessed parcel-level data for estimating these relationships. Our analysis relies on paired survey and assessment data for approximately 2000 homes in western Colorado. Our simultaneous model demonstrates dual-directional interactions between risk perceptions and conditions associated with mitigation actions, with important implications for inference from simpler approaches. In addition to improving general understanding of decision-making about risk and natural hazards, our findings can support the effectiveness of publicly supported programs intended to encourage mitigation to reduce society’s overall wildfire risk.

Fire↗
USGS2019

Assessment of bird exposure to lead at Tyndall and Beale Air Force Bases, 2016–17

Soil contamination by lead (Pb) from past small munitions training on Beale Air Force Base, California, and Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida, may result in adverse effects for passerine birds that utilize the locations. A study was conducted during 2016-17 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and U.S. Air Force, at both Air Force Bases (AFBs) to assess the risk of bird exposure to Pb. Two different methods were used to estimate exposure. The first was analysis of blood and feather samples collected from birds captured on both AFBs, and the second was food chain modeling using data on Pb concentrations in dietary items (invertebrates and seeds) collected from both AFBs. Lead concentrations in blood and feathers for birds captured at Beale AFB indicate low exposure and risk; potential toxicity is possible based on blood and feather data for birds from Tyndall AFB. Food chain modeling utilizing dietary contamination indicates a risk likelihood of up to 35 percent at Beale AFB and up to 34 percent at Tyndall AFB. Lead exposure from incidental soil ingestion increased risk likelihood at both AFBs and is a significant uncertainty in this risk assessment. A companion data release for data collected during this project can be found at https://doi.org/10.5066/P92YXMQ2 .

California, Florida↗
USGS2016

Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, A SL (t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying A SL (t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Multispecies approaches to status assessments in support of endangered species classifications

Multispecies risk assessments have developed within many international conservation programs, reflecting a widespread need for efficiency. Under the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA), multispecies assessments ultimately lead to species-level listing decisions. Although this approach provides opportunities for improved efficiency, it also risks overwhelming or biasing the assessment process and would benefit from clear guidance for practitioners. We reviewed multispecies assessments conducted between 1993 and 2019 for ESA listing decisions to identify the ecological basis for combining species, the assessment approach used, and the policy factors influencing their efficacy. We identified 42 cases covering 359 species. Most assessments (81%) included two to five species, although the maximum was 82. A common theme involved grouping narrow endemics or habitat specialists based on taxonomic relatedness, similar distributions, and common threats to persistence. All assessments included a combined threats analysis, but few employed a common species' response model or expert elicitation process. Although ESA risk assessments are distinct from policy decisions, most assessments (50%) supported decisions that all species warranted endangered status. Available guidance has generally emphasized ecological similarity as the key attribute leading to successful multispecies assessments. The challenge with consistently selecting species based on qualitative proxies such as common distributions or threats to persistence is that ecological patterns and processes are scale dependent. Focusing instead on the assessment methods and their potential for bias and increased efficiency may provide a stronger basis for developing consistent and transparent guidance.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2020

Predicting suitable habitat for dreissenid mussel invasion in Texas based on climatic and lake physical characteristics

Eurasian zebra and quagga mussels were likely introduced to the Laurentian Great Lakes via ballast water release in the 1980s, and their range has since expanded across the US, including some of their southernmost occurrences in Texas. Their spread into the state has resulted in a need to revise previous delimitations of suitable dreissenid habitat. We therefore assessed invasion risk in Texas by 1) predicting distribution of suitable habitat of zebra and quagga mussels using Maxent species distribution models based upon global occurrence and climate data; and 2) refining lake-specific predictions via collection and analysis of physicochemical data. Maxent models predicted a lack of suitable habitat for quagga mussels within Texas. However, models did predict the presence of suitable zebra mussel habitat, with hotspots of suitable habitat occurring along the Red and Sabine Rivers of north and east Texas, as well as patches of suitable habitat in central Texas between the Colorado and Brazos Rivers and extending inland along the Gulf Coast. Although predicted suitable habitat extended further west than in previous models, most of the Texas panhandle, west Texas extending toward El Paso, and the Rio Grande valley were predicted to provide poor zebra mussel habitat suitability. Collection of physicochemical data (i.e., dissolved oxygen, pH, specific conductance, and temperature on-site as well as laboratory analysis for Ca, N, and P) from zebra mussel-invaded lakes and a subset of uninvaded but high-risk lakes of North and Central Texas, did not refine model predictions because there was no apparent distinction between invaded and uninvaded lakes. Overall, we demonstrated that while quagga mussels do not appear to represent an invasive threat in Texas, abundant suitable habitat for continuing zebra mussel invasion exists within the state. The threat of continued expansion of this poster-child for negative invasive species impacts warrants further prevention efforts, management, and research.

Texas↗
USGS2017

A pesticide paradox: Fungicides indirectly increase fungal infections

There are many examples where the use of chemicals have had profound unintended consequences, such as fertilizers reducing crop yields (paradox of enrichment) and insecticides increasing insect pests (by reducing natural biocontrol). Recently, the application of agrochemicals, such as agricultural disinfectants and fungicides, has been explored as an approach to curb the pathogenic fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), which is associated with worldwide amphibian declines. However, the long-term, net effects of early-life exposure to these chemicals on amphibian disease risk have not been thoroughly investigated. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and analysis of data from the literature, we explored the effects of fungicide exposure on Bd infections in two frog species. Extremely low concentrations of the fungicides azoxystrobin, chlorothalonil, and mancozeb were directly toxic to Bd in culture. However, estimated environmental concentrations of the fungicides did not reduce Bd on Cuban tree frog ( Osteopilus septentrionalis ) tadpoles exposed simultaneously to any of these fungicides and Bd , and fungicide exposure actually increased Bd -induced mortality. Additionally, exposure to any of these fungicides as tadpoles resulted in higher Bd abundance and greater Bd -induced mortality when challenged with Bd post-metamorphosis, an average of 71 d after their last fungicide exposure. Analysis of data from the literature revealed that previous exposure to the fungicide itraconazole, which is commonly used to clear Bd infections, made the critically endangered booroolong frog ( Litoria booroolongensis ) more susceptible to Bd . Finally, a field survey revealed that Bd prevalence was positively associated with concentrations of fungicides in ponds. Although fungicides show promise for controlling Bd , these results suggest that, if fungicides do not completely eliminate Bd or if Bd recolonizes, exposure to fungicides has the potential to do more harm than good. To ensure that fungicide applications have the intended consequence of curbing amphibian declines, researchers must identify which fungicides do not compromise the pathogen resistance mechanisms of amphibians.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2012

Socio-environmental health analysis in Nogales, Sonora, Mexico

In Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, some neighborhoods, or colonias, have intermittent delivery of water through pipes from the city of Nogales’s municipal water-delivery system while other areas lack piped water and rely on water delivered by truck or pipas. This research examined how lifestyles, water quality, and potential disease response, such as diarrhea, differs seasonally from a colonia with access to piped water as opposed to one using alternative water-delivery systems. Water samples were collected from taps or spigots at homes in two Nogales colonias. One colonia reflected high socio-environmental conditions where residents are supplied with municipal piped water (Colonia Lomas de Fatima); the second colonia reflected low socio-environmental conditions, lacking access to piped water and served by pipas (Colonia Luis Donaldo Colosio). A survey was developed and implemented to characterize perceptions of water quality, health impacts, and quality of life. Water samples were analyzed for microbial and inorganic water-quality parameters known to impact human health including, Escherichia coli (E. coli), total coliform bacteria, arsenic, and lead. A total of 21 households agreed to participate in the study (14 in Colosio and 7 in Fatima). In both colonias metal concentrations from water samples were all well below the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (US EPA’s) maximum contaminant levels. E. coli concentrations exceeded the US EPA’s drinking-water standard in Colosio but not Fatima. Total coliform bacteria were present in over 50 % of households in both colonias. Microbial contamination was significantly higher in the summer than in the winter in both colonias. Resulting analysis suggests that residents in colonias without piped water are at a greater risk of gastrointestinal illness from consumption of compromised drinking water. Our survey corroborated reports of gastrointestinal illness in the summer months but not in the winter. Chloride was found to be significantly greater in Colosio (median 29.2 mg/L) although still below the US EPA’s maximum contaminant levels of 250 mg/L. Ongoing binational collaboration can promote mechanisms to improve water quality in cities located in the US–Mexico border.

Water Quality, Exposure, and Health↗
USGS2017

Early detection of nonnative alleles in fish populations: When sample size actually matters

Reliable detection of nonnative alleles is crucial for the conservation of sensitive native fish populations at risk of introgression. Typically, nonnative alleles in a population are detected through the analysis of genetic markers in a sample of individuals. Here we show that common assumptions associated with such analyses yield substantial overestimates of the likelihood of detecting nonnative alleles. We present a revised equation to estimate the likelihood of detecting nonnative alleles in a population with a given level of admixture. The new equation incorporates the effects of the genotypic structure of the sampled population and shows that conventional methods overestimate the likelihood of detection, especially when nonnative or F-1 hybrid individuals are present. Under such circumstances—which are typical of early stages of introgression and therefore most important for conservation efforts—our results show that improved detection of nonnative alleles arises primarily from increasing the number of individuals sampled rather than increasing the number of genetic markers analyzed. Using the revised equation, we describe a new approach to determining the number of individuals to sample and the number of diagnostic markers to analyze when attempting to monitor the arrival of nonnative alleles in native populations.

Fisheries↗
USGS2008

Environmental contaminant hazards to wildlife at National Capital region and Mid-Atlantic National Park Service units

Pollutant data for air, water, soil and biota were compiled from databases and internet sources and by staff interviews at 23 National Park Service (NPS) units in 2005. A metric was derived describing the quality and quantity of data for each park, and in combination with known contaminant threats, the need for ecotoxicological study was identified and ranked. Over half of NP units were near Toxic Release Inventory sites discharging persistent pollutants, and fish consumption advisories were in effect at or near 22 of the units. Pesticide and herbicide use was found to be minimal, with the exception of those units with agricultural leases. Only 70 reports were found that describe terrestrial vertebrate environmental contaminant data at or near the units. Of the >75,000 compounds in commerce, empirical exposure data were limited to merely 58 halogenated compounds, insecticides, rodenticides, metals, and some contemporary compounds. Further ecotoxicological monitoring and research is warranted at several units including Shenandoah National Park, Richmond National Battlefield Park, Chesapeake & Ohio Canal National Historical Park, Valley Forge National Historical Park, Hopewell Furnace National Historic Site, Monocacy National Battlefield, and Harpers Ferry National Historical Park. The types of investigations vary according to the wildlife species present and potential contaminant threats, but should focus on contemporary use pesticides and herbicides, polychlorinated biphenyls, mercury, lead, and perhaps antibiotics, flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and surfactants. Other management recommendations include inclusion of screening level contaminant risk assessments into the NPS Vital Signs Program, development of protocols for toxicological analysis of seemingly affected wildlife, alternative methods and compounds for pest management, and use of non-toxic fishing tackle by visitors.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

New high resolution airborne geophysical surveys in Nevada And California for geothermal and mineral resource studies

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Department of Energy (DOE) are collaborating to acquire high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data to support geologic and geophysical mapping and modeling that will assist geothermal and critical mineral studies. Coordinated with these efforts are programs supporting geologic mapping and airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) surveys that yield detailed surface topographic models of the terrain over the same regions spanned by the geophysical surveys. The collaboration leverages resources from the USGS and DOE to acquire large regional datasets that will provide fundamental data necessary to map surface and subsurface geology and structure to benefit mineral and resource program objectives of both agencies. Such regionally uniform datasets are important for geothermal research to assist in identifying geologically favorable settings and as invaluable inputs in predictive models targeting undiscovered resources that use knowledge-driven (e.g., play fairway analysis) or data-driven approaches (e.g., machine-learning methods) to reduce risk associated with resource exploration. These data will also serve a wide range of other related activities from hazard (earthquake, volcano, landslide, environmental) and resource (water, mineral, energy) studies, to mapping and land management. Surveys were conducted in two areas that were selected because they host substantial geothermal and mineral potential in California and Nevada. The data will aid several ongoing USGS and DOE projects aimed at characterizing geothermal and mineral systems, understanding the factors controlling their occurrence, and improving future national resource assessments. The first of these surveys (referred to as GeoDAWN) was collected over northern and western Nevada and eastern California and spans areas of major resource potential associated with the Walker Lane and western Great Basin. This includes Clayton Valley, which hosts substantial lithium brine and clay resources, and the Humboldt Mafic Complex, which constitutes a potentially important resource of critical minerals (including cobalt, rare earth elements, platinum group elements, iron, chromium, nickel, and copper). The second survey area (referred to as GeoFlight) is focused over the Salton Trough in southern California that contains some of the largest and hottest known hydrothermal systems in the world, as well as a substantial lithium brine resource that could potentially meet the nation’s lithium demand for electric vehicles. Data from both surveys will be made publicly available through USGS publications and online data repositories. Future efforts under this collaboration are presently being evaluated and may involve acquisition of other data sets such as airborne gravity, electromagnetic or hyperspectral data to address research targets.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2021

Decision context as an essential component of population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a widely used tool that applies demographic data in simulation frameworks to assess extinction risk for species or populations. It is used in diverse conservation applications, including evaluating management effectiveness, relative risk of threats, and potential changes to protective status (Beissinger & McCullough, 2002 ), and can be a critical tool for making decisions with imperfect knowledge of the system state, often on limited timelines (Meine et al., 2006 ). Chaudhary and Oli ( 2020 ) recently developed a framework to appraise the quality of PVAs based on the presence of essential background, model, and analysis components. They evaluated 160 published PVAs and reported a decline in the quality of PVAs over time (1990−2017). We agree PVA studies should report unambiguous descriptions of their essential components (Table 1 in Chaudhary and Oli) and explicitly state the model's biological and statistical assumptions. The need for increased transparency in PVAs is evident. Morrison et al. ( 2016 ) reported that only 50% of PVAs published in peer-reviewed and gray literature were both reproducible and repeatable. Further, in an examination of 67 studies that used matrix population models (widely used in PVAs), Kendall et al. ( 2019 ) reported that models frequently contained misspecification errors. Given the rapid advancement of simulation techniques, updated guidance for PVA construction is warranted. However, we believe the essential PVA components identified by Chaudhary and Oli contain a critical omission: the decision context in which the PVA was created and its usefulness in that context. Quality and utility are not mutually exclusive; however, some models that do not meet idealized quality standards might still be valuable because they are useful and represent the best available science for a given decision context (hereafter, decision-support models). The definition of quality for decision-support models should be different than models developed for the purpose of learning (hereafter, heuristic models) and should incorporate how useful the model was, despite information gaps. We further argue that assessment questions should be used prospectively to guide modeling projects, rather than for retrospective comparison of model quality.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2017

Novel analyses of long-term data provide a scientific basis for chlorophyll-a thresholds in San Francisco Bay

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton . Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll- a ( chl-a ) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a . Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m −3 as a “protective” threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13–16 mg m −3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80% saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher “at risk” chl-a thresholds from 25 to 40 mg m −3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L −1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

California↗
USGS2017

Linking spring phenology with mechanistic models of host movement to predict disease transmission risk

Disease models typically focus on temporal dynamics of infection, while often neglecting environmental processes that determine host movement. In many systems, however, temporal disease dynamics may be slow compared to the scale at which environmental conditions alter host space-use and accelerate disease transmission. Using a mechanistic movement modelling approach, we made space-use predictions of a mobile host (elk [ Cervus Canadensis ] carrying the bacterial disease brucellosis) under environmental conditions that change daily and annually (e.g., plant phenology, snow depth), and we used these predictions to infer how spring phenology influences the risk of brucellosis transmission from elk (through aborted foetuses) to livestock in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using data from 288 female elk monitored with GPS collars, we fit step selection functions (SSFs) during the spring abortion season and then implemented a master equation approach to translate SSFs into predictions of daily elk distribution for five plausible winter weather scenarios (from a heavy snow, to an extreme winter drought year). We predicted abortion events by combining elk distributions with empirical estimates of daily abortion rates, spatially varying elk seroprevelance and elk population counts. Our results reveal strong spatial variation in disease transmission risk at daily and annual scales that is strongly governed by variation in host movement in response to spring phenology. For example, in comparison with an average snow year, years with early snowmelt are predicted to have 64% of the abortions occurring on feedgrounds shift to occurring on mainly public lands, and to a lesser extent on private lands. Synthesis and applications . Linking mechanistic models of host movement with disease dynamics leads to a novel bridge between movement and disease ecology. Our analysis framework offers new avenues for predicting disease spread, while providing managers tools to proactively mitigate risks posed by mobile disease hosts. More broadly, we demonstrate how mechanistic movement models can provide predictions of ecological conditions that are consistent with climate change but may be more extreme than has been observed historically.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗
USGS2013

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2025

Nature-based solutions extend the lifespan of a regional levee system under climate change

Nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention as a cost-effective climate adaptation strategy. Horizontal levees are nature-based adaptation solutions that include a sloping wetland habitat buffer fronting a levee. They can offer a hybrid solution to reinforce traditional levees in estuarine areas—plants on the horizontal levee can provide wave attenuation benefits as well as habitat benefits, but how the design of horizontal levees influences risk of levee failure remains unquantified. We use a hydrodynamic model, XBeach non-hydrostatic (XB-NH), to assess the stability and sustainability of existing levees and determine how hybrid nature-based climate adaptation measures can reduce the risk of overtopping on levees in San Francisco Bay. We compare overtopping rates in the existing levee system and in a variety of nature-based adaptation scenarios using a range of widths and slopes of horizontal levees to assess how horizontal levees perform in reducing risk of flooding, both with present day conditions and sea level rise. We show that climate change will challenge existing levee flood defenses in San Francisco Bay and increase the risk of overtopping, and that the nature-based solution of horizontal levees can meaningfully reduce risk of overtopping while simultaneously supporting marsh habitat. Flood risk reduction and habitat provision are both maximized with more gradually sloping and wider horizontal levee designs. Results show that the risk of overtopping can be reduced by up to 30% with horizontal levees. This analysis provides insight into horizontal levee design considerations and a methodological approach to adapt levees to prepare for climate change in urban wave-exposed estuaries. We show that horizontal levees can support preparation for the projected impacts of sea level rise (SLR) while simultaneously providing new intertidal wetland habitat.

California↗
USGS2011

Patterns of hybridization of nonnative cutthroat trout and hatchery rainbow trout with native redband trout in the Boise River, Idaho

Hybridization is one of the greatest threats to native fishes. Threats from hybridization are particularly important for native trout species as stocking of nonnative trout has been widespread within the ranges of native species, thus increasing the potential for hybridization. While many studies have documented hybridization between native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii and nonnative rainbow trout O. mykiss , fewer have focused on this issue in native rainbow trout despite widespread threats from introductions of both nonnative cutthroat trout and hatchery rainbow trout. Here, we describe the current genetic (i.e., hybridization) status of native redband trout O. mykiss gairdneri populations in the upper Boise River, Idaho. Interspecific hybridization was widespread (detected at 14 of the 41 sampled locations), but high levels of hybridization between nonnative cutthroat trout and redband trout were detected in only a few streams. Intraspecific hybridization was considerably more widespread (almost 40% of sampled locations), and several local populations of native redband trout have been almost completely replaced with hatchery coastal rainbow trout O. mykiss irideus ; other populations exist as hybrid swarms, some are in the process of being actively invaded, and some are maintaining genetic characteristics of native populations. The persistence of some redband trout populations with high genetic integrity provides some opportunity to conserve native genomes, but our findings also highlight the complex decisions facing managers today. Effective management strategies in this system may include analysis of the specific attributes of each site and population to evaluate the relative risks posed by isolation versus maintaining connectivity, identifying potential sites for control or eradication of nonnative trout, and long-term monitoring of the genetic integrity of remaining redband trout populations to track changes in their status.

Idaho↗
USGS2018

Movement behavior preceding autumn mortality for white-tailed deer in central New York

A common yet largely untested assumption in the theory of animal movements is that increased rates and a wider range of movements, such as occurs during breeding, make animals more vulnerable to mortality. We examined mortality among 34 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) wearing GPS collars during the autumn breeding season of 2006 and 2007 in a heavily hunted, forest-agricultural landscape of central New York state. We evaluated whether individuals having higher rates of movement incurred higher rates of mortality and whether mortality risk was higher when deer were in less familiar areas. We used a Cox proportional hazards model to analyze how mortality risk changes with movement rates measured over 3 time periods: < 1 day, up to 2 weeks prior to death, and 3–4 weeks prior to death. Overall, deer increased their movement rates as autumn progressed, males more so than females. However, deer that died moved at a slower rate relative to surviving deer up to 2 weeks prior to death (ß = -2.22 ± 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -3.91 to -0.51) and a slower rate on their day of death compared to deer that survived (ß = -1.77 ± 0.73; 95% CI = -3.19 to -0.33). Site familiarity was not significantly related to mortality risk. Deer were equally likely to die within their 50% core use area as elsewhere within their autumn home range. We hypothesize that increased sociality associated with breeding may make animals more vulnerable to harvest mortality. Our findings contradict general assumptions about the influences of movement behavior on mortality risk, suggesting that patterns may be sensitive to the spatiotemporal context of the movement analysis.

New York↗