Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Modeling Report”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources

Habitat Suitability Index Models: The Arizona guild and layers of habitat models

This document is part of the Habitat Suitability Index Models Series, which provides habitat information useful for impact assessment and habitat management. Both of the models described in this report are based on the significant association of Wildlife species with vegetation structure. The models compare the structure in the study area with the vegetation structure that could potentially occur in thtat study area following land use changes or disturbance. These models provide a low resolution assessment of habitat structure relevant early in the land-use planning process.

FWS/OBS↗

Computer-program documentation of an interactive-accounting model to simulate streamflow, water quality, and water-supply operations in a river basin

This report describes an interactive-accounting model used to simulate streamflow, chemical-constituent concentrations and loads, and water-supply operations in a river basin. The model uses regression equations to compute flow from incremental (internode) drainage areas. Conservative chemical constituents (typically dissolved solids) also are computed from regression equations. Both flow and water quality loads are accumulated downstream. Optionally, the model simulates the water use and the simplified groundwater systems of a basin. Water users include agricultural, municipal, industrial, and in-stream users , and reservoir operators. Water users list their potential water sources, including direct diversions, groundwater pumpage, interbasin imports, or reservoir releases, in the order in which they will be used. Direct diversions conform to basinwide water law priorities. The model is interactive, and although the input data exist in files, the user can modify them interactively. A major feature of the model is its color-graphic-output options. This report includes a description of the model, organizational charts of subroutines, and examples of the graphics. Detailed format instructions for the input data, example files of input data, definitions of program variables, and listing of the FORTRAN source code are Attachments to the report. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Documentation of a finite-element two-layer model for simulation of ground-water flow

This report documents a finite-element model for simulation of ground- water flow in a two-aquifer system where the two aquifers are coupled by a leakage term that represents flow through a confining layer separating the two aquifers. The model was developed by Timothy J. Durbin (U.S. Geological Survey) for use in ground-water investigations in southern California. The documentation assumes that the reader is familiar with the physics of ground-water flow, numerical methods of solving partial-differential equations, and the FORTRAN IV computer language. It was prepared as part of the investigations made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

A steady-state groundwater flow model for the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park, Des Moines, Iowa

The Des Moines River alluvial aquifer is an important source of water for Des Moines Water Works, the municipal water utility that provides residential and commercial water resources to the residents of Des Moines, Iowa, and surrounding municipalities. As an initial step in developing a better understanding of the groundwater resources of the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a steady-state numerical groundwater flow model in cooperation with Des Moines Water Works to simulate water-table elevations in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer near Prospect Park in Des Moines under winter low-flow conditions. A simple conceptual model consisting of a hydrogeologic framework, water budget, and inferred water-table elevation map was developed for the model area. The inferred water-table elevation map was constructed based on general knowledge of hydrogeology within the model area and was used to set calibration targets for numerical model calibration. A steady-state numerical model was constructed based on the conceptual model using MODFLOW-NWT to simulate an area of about 15 square kilometers near Prospect Park in Des Moines. Parameter ESTimation software was used for model calibration to assess and optimize performance of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity and recharge parameters. The numerical groundwater flow model and supporting data are available in the USGS data release associated with this report, which contains the model archive. Performance of the calibrated steady-state model was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water-table elevations, as well as estimated and simulated contributions to streamflow within the model area. The difference between observed water-table elevations and simulated water-table elevations was −0.1 meter at the majority of calibration targets, with the negative value indicating an overestimation of the simulated water-table elevation value compared to the observed water-table elevation value, and the root mean square error was 0.13 meter, which represents about 20 percent of the difference in observed water-table elevations. The simulated value of contributions to streamflow within the model area was considered similar to the estimated value, increasing confidence in the ability of the model to accurately represent the groundwater flow system in the Des Moines River alluvial aquifer in the model area during winter low-flow conditions.

Iowa↗

Users' guide to system dynamics model describing Coho salmon survival in Olema Creek, Point Reyes National Seashore, Marin County, California

The system dynamics model described in this report is the result of a collaboration between U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and National Park Service (NPS) San Francisco Bay Area Network (SFAN) staff, whose goal was to develop a methodology to integrate inventory and monitoring data to better understand ecosystem dynamics and trends using salmon in Olema Creek, Marin County, California, as an example case. The SFAN began monitoring multiple life stages of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Olema Creek during 2003 (Carlisle and others, 2013), building on previous monitoring of spawning fish and redds. They initiated water-quality and habitat monitoring, and had access to flow and weather data from other sources. This system dynamics model of the freshwater portion of the coho salmon life cycle in Olema Creek integrated 8 years of existing monitoring data, literature values, and expert opinion to investigate potential factors limiting survival and production, identify data gaps, and improve monitoring and restoration prescriptions. A system dynamics model is particularly effective when (1) data are insufficient in time series length and/or measured parameters for a statistical or mechanistic model, and (2) the model must be easily accessible by users who are not modelers. These characteristics helped us meet the following overarching goals for this model: Summarize and synthesize NPS monitoring data with data and information from other sources to describe factors and processes affecting freshwater survival of coho salmon in Olema Creek. Provide a model that can be easily manipulated to experiment with alternative values of model parameters and novel scenarios of environmental drivers. Although the model describes the ecological dynamics of Olema Creek, these dynamics are structurally similar to numerous other coastal streams along the California coast that also contain anadromous fish populations. The model developed for Olema can be used, at least as a starting point, for other watersheds. This report describes each of the model elements with sufficient detail to guide the primary target audience, the NPS resource specialist, to run the model, interpret the results, change the input data to explore hypotheses, and ultimately modify and improve the model. Running the model and interpreting the results does not require modeling expertise on the part of the user. Additional companion publications will highlight other aspects of the model, such as its development, the rationale behind the methodological approach, scenario testing, and discussions of its use. System dynamics models consist of three basic elements: stocks , flows , and converters . Stocks are measurable quantities that can change over time, such as animal populations. Flows are any processes or conditions that change the quantity in a stock over time (Ford, 1999), are expressed in the model as a rate of change, and are diagrammed as arrows to or from stocks. Converters are processes or conditions that change the rate of flows. A converter is connected to a flow with an arrow indicating that it alters the rate of change. Anything that influences the rate of change (such as different environmental conditions, other external factors, or feedbacks from other stocks or flows) is modeled as a converter. For example, the number of fish in a population is appropriately modeled as a stock. Mortality is modeled as a flow because it is a rate of change over time used to determine the number of fish in the population. The density-dependent effect on mortality is modeled as a converter because it influences the rate of morality. Together, the flow and converter change the number, or stock, of juvenile coho. The instructions embedded in the stocks, flows, converters, and the sequence in which they are linked are processed by the simulation software with each completed sequence composing a model run. At each modeled time step within the model run, the stock counts will go up, down, or stay the same based on the modeled flows and the influence of converters on those flows. The model includes a user-friendly interface to change model parameters, which allows park staff and others to conduct sensitivity analyses, incorporate future knowledge, and implement scenarios for various future conditions. The model structure incorporates place holders for relationships that we hypothesize are significant but data are currently lacking. Future climate scenarios project stream temperatures higher than any that have ever been recorded at Olema Creek. Exploring climate change impacts on coho survival is a high priority for park staff, therefore the model provides the user with the option to experiment with hypothesized effects and to incorporate effects based on future observations.

California↗

Report of the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Modeling Workshop, Pacific Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, March 22-23, 2005

A U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology (CMG) Modeling Workshop was held to discuss the general topic of coastal modeling, defined broadly to include circulation, waves, sediment transport, water quality, ecology, sediment diagenesis, morphology change, and coastal evolution, on scales ranging from seconds and a few centimeters (individual ripples) to centuries (coastal evolution) and thousands of kilometers (tsunami propagation). The workshop was convened at the suggestion of CMG Program Management to improve communication among modelers and model users, assess modeling-related activities being conducted at the three centers (Florida Integrated Science Center, FISC; Pacific Marine Science Center; PMSC; and Woods Hole Science Center; WHSC), and develop goals, strategies, and plans for future modeling activities. The workshop represents a step toward developing a five-year strategic plan, and was timed to provide input for the FY06 prospectus. The workshop was held at the USGS Pacific Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz on March 22-23, 2005.

Open-File Report↗

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering 1989-2006 Data

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 1967, the humpback chub (Gila cypha) (HBC) was added to the federal list of endangered species and is today protected under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. Only six populations of humpback chub are currently known to exist, five in the Colorado River Basin above Lees Ferry, Arizona, and one in Grand Canyon, Arizona. The majority of Grand Canyon humpback chub are found in the Little Colorado River (LCR)-the largest tributary to the Colorado River in Grand Canyon-and the Colorado River near its confluence with the Little Colorado River. Monitoring and research of the Grand Canyon humpback chub population is overseen by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC) under the auspices of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP), a Federal initiative to protect and improve resources downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. This report provides updated information on the status and trends of the LCR population in light of new information and refined assessment methodology. An earlier assessment of the LCR population (Coggins and others, 2006a) used data collected during 1989?2002; the assessment provided here includes that data and additional data collected through 2006. Catch-rate indices, closed population mark-recapture model abundance estimates, results from the original age-structured mark recapture (ASMR) model (Coggins and others, 2006b), and a newly refined ASMR model are presented. This report also seeks to (1) formally evaluate alternative stock assessment models using Pearson residual analyses and information theoretic procedures, (2) use mark-recapture data to estimate the relationship between HBC age and length, (3) translate uncertainty in the assignment of individual fish age to resulting estimates of recruitment and abundance from the ASMR model, and (4) evaluate past and present stock assessments considering the available data sources and analyses, recognizing the limitations inherent in both. A major task of this study was to improve the overall methodology used to conduct HBC stock assessment by addressing concerns identified in an independent review conducted in 2003 (Kitchell and others, 2003). The review report identified that the current technique of assigning age to individual fish based on length was a potential source of bias in ASMR estimates of abundance and recruitment, and called for a more complete examination of this potential error source. Additionally, the review suggested that further work to develop procedures to better arbitrate among alternative assessment models (e.g., ASMR 1?3) would be beneficial. To address the first of the concerns identified by the independent review, this study uses mark-recapture data to develop a temperature-dependent growth model to characterize the relationship between HBC age and length. This model attempts to account for temperature differences resulting from both ontogenetic habitat shifts between the Little Colorado and the mainstem Colorado Rivers as well as seasonal variation in water temperature within the LCR. The resulting growth model is then used to characterize the error in assigning age to individual fish based on length. Results presented in this study suggest that ageing error does not result in large bias in either abundance or recruitment estimates from the ASMR model. However, incorporating ageing error into the assessment does result in less precise estimates, particularly for recruitment. To address the second concern brought forward in the review report related to model selection procedures, this study arbitrated among the competing models by both examining model fit using Pearson residual analyses and considering information theoretic measures. Although adult abundance estimates and trend varied little among all models considered, these procedures identified ASMR 3 as the model whose underlying assumptions were most consistent with the data. Because ASMR 3 is

Open-File Report↗

A monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface

This report describes a monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface, referred to as the Thornthwaite monthly water-balance program. Computations of monthly water-balance components of the hydrologic cycle are made for a specified location. The program can be used as a research tool, an assessment tool, and a tool for classroom instruction.

Open-File Report↗

A digital resource model of the Upper Pennsylvanian Pittsburgh coal bed, Monongahela Group, northern Appalachian basin coal region, USA

The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting a coal resource assessment of the coal beds and zones that are expected to provide the bulk of the Nation's coal resources for the next few decades. The Pittsburgh coal bed is the first bed in the northern and central Appalachian basin coal region to undergo a fully-digital assessment. The bed-specific assessment is being carried out in partnership with the state geologic surveys of West Virginia (WV), Pennsylvania (PA), Ohio (OH), and Maryland (MD). Comprehensive stratigraphic and geochemical databases have been developed for the Pittsburgh coal bed, and areal extent, mined areas, structure contour, isopach, overburden thickness maps of the bed have been released as United States Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Reports. The resulting resource model indicates that of the original 34 billion short tons (31 billion tonnes) of Pittsburgh coal, 16 billion short tons (14 billion tonnes) remain. Although most of the remaining coal is thinner, deeper, and higher in ash and sulfur (S) than the original resource, there are blocks of extensive thick (6-8 ft or 1.8-2.4 m) coal in southwestern PA and the northern panhandle of WV.The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting a coal resource assessment of the coal beds and zones that are expected to provide the bulk of the Nation's coal resources for the next few decades. The Pittsburgh coal bed is the first bed in the northern and central Appalachian basin coal region to undergo a fully-digital assessment. The bed-specific assessment is being carried out in partnership with the state geologic surveys of West Virginia (WV), Pennsylvania (PA), Ohio (OH), and Maryland (MD). Comprehensive stratigraphic and geochemical databases have been developed for the Pittsburgh coal bed, and areal extent, mined areas, structure contour, isopach, overburden thickness maps of the bed have been released as United States Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File Reports. The resulting resource model indicates that of the original 34 billion short tons (31 billion tonnes) of Pittsburgh coal, 16 billion short tons (14 billion tonnes) remain. Although most of the remaining coal is thinner, deeper, and higher in ash and sulfur (S) than the original resource, there are blocks of extensive thick (6-8 ft or 1.8-2.4 m) coal in southwestern PA and the northern panhandle of WV.

International Journal of Coal Geology↗

Simulating post-dam removal effects of hatchery operations and disease on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Lower Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been considering the approval to breach four dams on lower Klamath River in southern Oregon and northern California. Approval of this application would allow for Strikeouts indicate text deletion hereafter. decommissioning and dam removal, beginning as early as 2023. This action would affect Klamath River salmon ( Oncorhynchus ssp.) populations, a critical food source for federally endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales ( Orcinus orca ). In the long run, reintroduction of salmon populations to the upper Klamath River Basin may increase salmon abundance available to Southern Resident Killer Whales, but in the near term, it is uncertain how changes in hatchery management and disease-caused mortality by the myxosporean parasite Ceratonova shasta will influence abundance of salmon populations entering the ocean. To assess this uncertainty, we used the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to simulate population dynamics of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) for nine different population sources that rear and migrate through the Klamath River. S3 is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time-step and simulates daily growth, survival, and movement of juvenile Chinook salmon from the time of spawning through ocean entry. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a C. shasta disease submodel; (2) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model that calculates daily growth rates; (3) size-dependent movement; (4) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (5) habitat, river flow, and water temperature specific to each scenario. We constructed and ran four scenarios: two scenarios for dams in place (Dams In) and dams removed (Dams Out), and given these dam-removal conditions, a low- and high-spore scenario for C. shasta . Each scenario was run for nine water years representing a range of conditions from dry to wet. Previously published daily river flows and water temperatures for Dams In and Dams Out provided physical inputs for each scenario. Daily spore concentrations were simulated using a three-part mechanistic model that used river discharge, water temperature, and the prevalence of infection (POI) of hatchery-origin Chinook salmon juveniles with C. shasta in the previous year 3 . We constructed two spore scenarios for each Dams In and Dams Out scenario, a “Low Spore” scenario and a “High Spore” scenario resulting in four scenarios for comparison. Spore scenarios were established by setting the prior-year POI of hatchery fish to 0.15 and 0.75 in the estimation of spore concentrations. Hatchery releases under Dams Out differed from those under the current Dams In scenario. Hatchery releases under the Dams Out scenario were modified to emulate changes in hatchery production that would occur under Dams Out conditions. This included moving hatchery production and releases from Iron Gate Dam to a proposed hatchery at Fall Creek, which would be located about 11 kilometers (km) upstream of Iron Gate Dam. It is anticipated that the Fall Creek hatchery would produce fewer fish at smaller and larger sizes at different release timings. For salmon inputs, we used observed historical abundance of main-stem spawners from brood year 2009 and juvenile salmon entering from tributaries in water year 2010, which represented an average return year for the 2005–18 period. Main-stem spawning was allowed to shift upstream from Iron Gate Dam under the Dams Out scenario. We also included hatchery-origin fish as natural spawners that would have otherwise returned to Iron Gate Hatchery in the first 3 years following dam removal. The S3 model simulated considerably higher total abundance for Dams Out relative to the respective Dams In scenarios, and higher abundance for the Low Spore scenario relative to the High Spore scenario. The difference in abundance between the four combinations of the dam-removal and spore scenarios varied among population groups. For main-stem natural production, juvenile abundance at ocean entry was 2–3 times higher for Dams Out scenarios than for Dams In scenarios, and juvenile abundance for High Spore scenarios was lower than that for the Dams Out Low Spores scenario. For hatchery releases, abundance at ocean entry was similar between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios for most water years, despite lower release sizes from Fall Creek Hatchery under Dams Out. For tributary populations, abundance for the High Spore scenarios was consistently lower than for the Low Spore scenarios, but differences between dam-removal scenarios varied among water years, with Dams Out scenarios having similar or higher abundance than Dams In scenarios, and dry water years having the largest difference between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios. We determined that different factors affected the response of each population group. For main-stem natural production, survival from fry emergence to ocean entry was higher under Dams Out scenarios compared to Dams In scenarios because juveniles emerged later and tended to arrive at the ocean sooner and at larger sizes, causing the population to have less time-dependent in-river mortality. Owing to their late release timing, hatchery populations had high disease-caused mortality in Dams In and Dams Out High Spore scenarios. Furthermore, a high proportion of infected fish (those that would be expected to die at some future point) survived to the ocean. Iron Gate Hatchery fish had lower survival rates than releases from Fall Creek Hatchery because the last mid-June release group from the 2010 Iron Gate Hatchery release incurred nearly total mortality in most water years owing to water temperatures exceeding 24 degrees Celsius. Our analysis shows how the S3 model was able to track different populations and provide insights on how the differential response of each population combined to influence the simulated number of juvenile Chinook salmon arriving at the Pacific Ocean where they become available as a food source for Southern Resident Killer Whales.

California↗

Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

California, Oregon↗

Storage analyses for ephemeral streams in semiarid regions

A model has been developed for determining the probability of a reservoir being unable to provide a specified downstream water supply. By applying the model with a number of assumed storage capacities, the long-term water supply potential of a stream below a reservoir can be evaluated. Previous methods for determining available water supply from streamflow records using a reservoir storage analysis have met with limited success in semiarid regions. The shortcomings are due to the failure of the methods to account for zero-flow periods and the high day-to-day variability of discharge of many streams. The reservoir storage model presented in this report is designed to account for these streamflow characteristics. Reservoir inflow, outflow, and evaporation are modeled as varying daily, and values of storage probability are adjusted for zero-flow periods. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Digital-computer model of the principal ground-water reservoir in Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Utah

The computer model presented in this report was used to simulate the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area, Escalante Desert, Beaver, Iron, and Washington Counties, Utah (Mower, 1981). The details of the formulation of the model, testing of its validity, and the results of predictions are discussed in the cited report. This report was prepared as part of a cooperative program with the Utah Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water Rights, to investigate the water resources of the State. It is an addendum to the principal interpretive report, and it is presented in order to make the model available to anyone desiring to use it for additional predictions. The main program used was the finite-difference model for aquifer simulation in two dimensions documented by Trescott, Pinder, and Larson, (1976). Minor modifications were made to adapt the program to the principal ground-water reservoir in the Beryl-Enterprise area. All the modifications are listed at the top of table 1, and were related to parameter input and output, thus none of the computational subroutines were affected. The parameter arrays (table 1) and map of the area with a grid overlay (pi. 1) are given on following pages. The model simulates an aquifer- under water-table conditions, mostly composed of unconsoliuated basin-fill deposits. The boundaries of the modeled area (pi. 1) generally coincide with the boundaries of the saturated basin fill. However, in the southwest-central part of the model, permeable consolidated rock is included; and that part of the northern boundary between the Black and Wah Wah Mountains is an arbitrary boundary in basin fill between the Beryl-Enterprise area and the Milford area that lies to the northeast. The ignimbrite at Table Butte also was included in the active part of the model. The model includes simulation of discharge by evapotranspiration from phreatophytes. The areal recharge array was used to simulate recharge entering the modeled area at its boundaries and from stream infiltration in the southern corner near Enterprise. In addition, this array included discharge by wells operated during the period simulated as being under steady-state conditions (virtually 1937), and discharging wells simulating flow of water northeast to the Milford area. These wells also were included in the transient-state simulation (1937-77), although any changes in this discharge were modeled using the pumpage array (Group IV, table 1). The wells simulating outflow to the Milford area are shown on plate 1, but the wells pumping in 1937 are not shown unless they also were pumped during 1937-77. The pumpage array was used to simulate: (1) Discharge from wells, (2) discharge after 1977 from a mine in the southwest-central part of the model and recharge resulting form the mine discharge (pi. 1), and (3) changes in discharge in wells operated during the steady-state period. Recharge from irrigation was simulated by reducing pumpage from nodes where irrigation occurs. Discharge from all wells was reduced by 5 percent by multiplying all pumpage by 0.95 in the computer program. North of Newcastle, in T. 35 S., R. 15 W., pumpage was reduced by 35 percent because surface materials are very permeable.

Utah↗

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow in the Paluxy aquifer in the vicinity of Landfills 1 and 3, U.S. Air Force Plant 4, Fort Worth, Texas

Ground-water contamination of the surficial terrace alluvial aquifer has occurred at U.S. Air Force Plant 4, a government-owned, contractor-operated facility, northwest of Fort Worth, Texas. A poorly constructed monitoring well, P–22M, open to the underlying middle zone of the Paluxy aquifer was installed at landfill 3, October 1987, allowing leakage of contaminated ground water to reach the Paluxy aquifer. This well was plugged and abandoned in November 1995. Additionally, volatile organic compounds have been detected in fractures in the Goodland-Walnut confining unit, the hydrogeologic unit separating the terrace alluvial aquifer from the underlying Paluxy aquifer, beneath the western part of landfill 1. Volatile organic compounds in concentrations near the analytical detection limit were detected in the upper Paluxy prior to the drilling of well P–22M. The ground-water-flow simulation model described in this report was developed to examine the best logistically feasible location to install recovery wells to capture the low concentration (less than 100 micrograms per liter) trichloroethylene plume beneath landfills 1 and 3 (west Paluxy plume). Once the recovery wells were installed (1996), the simulation model was recalibrated with new data. This report documents the capture area of the installed recovery wells. Four geologic units are pertinent to this site-specific model. From oldest to youngest, these are the Glen Rose Formation, Paluxy Formation, Walnut Formation, and Goodland Limestone. The Glen Rose Formation is relatively impermeable in the study area and forms the confining unit underlying the Paluxy Formation. The Paluxy Formation forms the Paluxy aquifer, which is a public drinking water supply for the City of White Settlement. The Walnut Formation and Goodland Limestone form the Goodland-Walnut confining unit overlying the Paluxy aquifer. Near landfill 3, gamma-ray logs indicate three distinct zones of the Paluxy Formation; upper, middle, and lower. The formation is about 170-feet thick near landfill 3, and each zone is about 57-feet thick. Two steady-state simulations using the computer program MODFLOW were analyzed using the particle-tracking computer program, MODPATH. One simulation is the calibration simulation using Paluxy aquifer water-level data for May 1993. The second simulation includes the installed recovery wells. A variably spaced grid was designed for the model. The smallest grid cells, 25 by 25 feet, are in the vicinity of landfills 1 and 3. The largest cells, 4,864.5 by 1,441.5 feet, are at the northwestern corner of the model grid near the Parker-Tarrant County line. The modeling was accomplished with three layers representing the upper, middle, and lower zones of the Paluxy aquifer. Particles, which represent contaminant molecules moving in solution with the ground water, were tracked from well P–22M and an area below landfill 1, at the top of the upper zone of the Paluxy aquifer, for 9 years (forward tracking). The forward tracking estimates where contaminants might move by advection from 1987 to 1996. Analysis of backward tracking from the new recovery wells indicates that the simulated contributing area to the recovery wells intercepts the contaminant plume, minimizing off-site migration of the west Paluxy plume. To determine the effectiveness of the recovery wells, monitoring wells southeast of Building 14 have been installed (1996–97) for sampling.

Texas↗

Modifications of the U.S. Geological Survey modular, finite-difference, ground-water flow model to read and write geographic information system files

This report documents modifications to the U.S. Geological Survey modular, three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model, commonly called MODFLOW, so that it can read and write files used by a geographic information system (GIS). The modified model program is called MODFLOWARC. Simulation programs such as MODFLOW generally require large amounts of input data and produce large amounts of output data. Viewing data graphically, generating head contours, and creating or editing model data arrays such as hydraulic conductivity are examples of tasks that currently are performed either by the use of independent software packages or by tedious manual editing, manipulating, and transferring data. Programs such as GIS programs are commonly used to facilitate preparation of the model input data and analyze model output data; however, auxiliary programs are frequently required to translate data between programs. Data translations are required when different programs use different data formats. Thus, the user might use GIS techniques to create model input data, run a translation program to convert input data into a format compatible with the ground-water flow model, run the model, run a translation program to convert the model output into the correct format for GIS, and use GIS to display and analyze this output. MODFLOWARC, avoids the two translation steps and transfers data directly to and from the ground-water-flow model. This report documents the design and use of MODFLOWARC and includes instructions for data input/output of the Basic, Block-centered flow, River, Recharge, Well, Drain, Evapotranspiration, General-head boundary, and Streamflow-routing packages. The modification to MODFLOW and the Streamflow-Routing package was minimized. Flow charts and computer-program code describe the modifications to the original computer codes for each of these packages. Appendix A contains a discussion on the operation of MODFLOWARC using a sample problem.

Open-File Report↗

User's guide to Model Viewer, a program for three-dimensional visualization of ground-water model results

Model Viewer is a computer program that displays the results of three-dimensional groundwater models. Scalar data (such as hydraulic head or solute concentration) may be displayed as a solid or a set of isosurfaces, using a red-to-blue color spectrum to represent a range of scalar values. Vector data (such as velocity or specific discharge) are represented by lines oriented to the vector direction and scaled to the vector magnitude. Model Viewer can also display pathlines, cells or nodes that represent model features such as streams and wells, and auxiliary graphic objects such as grid lines and coordinate axes. Users may crop the model grid in different orientations to examine the interior structure of the data. For transient simulations, Model Viewer can animate the time evolution of the simulated quantities. The current version (1.0) of Model Viewer runs on Microsoft Windows 95, 98, NT and 2000 operating systems, and supports the following models: MODFLOW-2000, MODFLOW-2000 with the Ground-Water Transport Process, MODFLOW-96, MOC3D (Version 3.5), MODPATH, MT3DMS, and SUTRA (Version 2D3D.1). Model Viewer is designed to directly read input and output files from these models, thus minimizing the need for additional postprocessing. This report provides an overview of Model Viewer. Complete instructions on how to use the software are provided in the on-line help pages.

Open-File Report↗

Stochastic modeling of a lava-flow aquifer system

This report describes preliminary three-dimensional geostatistical modeling of a lava-flow aquifer system using a multiple-point geostatistical model. The purpose of this study is to provide a proof-of-concept for this modeling approach. An example of the method is demonstrated using a subset of borehole geologic data and aquifer test data from a portion of the Calico Hills Formation, a lava-flow aquifer system that partially underlies Pahute Mesa, Nevada. Groundwater movement in this aquifer system is assumed to be controlled by the spatial distribution of two geologic units—rhyolite lava flows and zeolitized tuffs. The configuration of subsurface lava flows and tuffs is largely unknown because of limited data. The spatial configuration of the lava flows and tuffs is modeled by using a multiple-point geostatistical simulation algorithm that generates a large number of alternative realizations, each honoring the available geologic data and drawn from a geologic conceptual model of the lava-flow aquifer system as represented by a training image. In order to demonstrate how results from the geostatistical model could be analyzed in terms of available hydrologic data, a numerical simulation of part of an aquifer test was applied to the realizations of the geostatistical model.

Nevada↗

Magnitude, depth and methodological variations of spectral stress drop within the SCEC/USGS Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

We present the first ensemble analysis of the 56 different sets of results submitted to the ongoing Community Stress Drop Validation Study using the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence. Different assumptions and methods result in different estimation of the source contribution to recorded seismograms, and hence to the source parameters (principally corner frequency, f c ⁠ , spectral stress drop, Δσ, and seismic moment, M 0 ⁠ ) obtained from modeling calculated source spectra. For earthquakes smaller than magnitude (M) 2.5 there is negligible correlation between the f c values obtained by different studies, implying that no present method is reliable using available data. For larger magnitude events, correlation between f c measurements of different studies, within even a small M range is always higher than spectral ⁠Δσ , because the f c measurements simply reflect the underlying physical decrease in f c with increasing M. We model the observed trends of submitted f c with both magnitude and depth. Most methods report an increase in spectral Δσ with M, although a magnitude‐invariant spectral Δσ is within the confidence limits. The depth dependence is smaller and depends on whether a study allows attenuation to vary with source depth; a combination of depth‐dependent attenuation correction, and depth‐dependent shear‐wave velocity can compensate for reported depth trends. We model the submitted values to remove differing M and depth variation to investigate the relative interevent variability. We find consistent relative variation between individual events, and also lower relative spectral Δσ in the northwest of the aftershock sequence, and higher on the cross fault and in the region of main fault intersection. This large‐scale comparison implies that absolute spectral Δσ estimates are dependent on the methods used; studies of different regions or using different methods should not be directly compared and improved constraints on path and site corrections are needed to resolve these absolute spectral Δσ differences.

California↗