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Integrating science and resource management in Tampa Bay, Florida

Tampa Bay is recognized internationally for its remarkable progress towards recovery since it was pronounced "dead" in the late 1970s. Due to significant efforts by local governments, industries and private citizens throughout the watershed, water clarity in Tampa Bay is now equal to what it was in 1950, when population in the watershed was less than one-quarter of what it is today. Seagrass extent has increased by more than 8,000 acres since the mid-1980s, and fish and wildlife populations are increasing. Central to this successful turn-around has been the Tampa Bay resource management community's long-term commitment to development and implementation of strong science-based management strategies. Research institutions and agencies, including Eckerd College, the Florida Wildlife Commission Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Mote Marine Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Southwest Florida Water Management District, University of South Florida, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, local and State governments, and private companies contribute significantly to the scientific basis of our understanding of Tampa Bay's structure and ecological function. Resource management agencies, including the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council's Agency on Bay Management, the Southwest Florida Water Management District's Surface Water Improvement and Management Program, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program, depend upon this scientific basis to develop and implement regional adaptive management programs. The importance of integrating science with management has become fully recognized by scientists and managers throughout the region, State and Nation. Scientific studies conducted in Tampa Bay over the past 10–15 years are increasingly diverse and complex, and resource management programs reflect our increased knowledge of geology, hydrology and hydrodynamics, ecology and restoration techniques. However, a synthesis of this research and its integration into resource management has not been prepared for Tampa Bay since the mid-1980s. The need for an up-to-date synthesis of Tampa Bay science and management has resulted in the production of this document. The U.S. Geological Survey recently completed a 5-year Tampa Bay Integrated Science Study, and the Tampa Bay Estuary Program updated the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for Tampa Bay in 2006. These efforts build upon results of the many research and management studies and programs summarized here.

Florida

Summary appraisals of the Nation's ground-water resources; Texas Gulf region

Ground water in the Texas-Gulf Region is a large and important resource that can provide a more significant percentage of the total water supply of the region. Total water requirements within the region are projected to rise sharply from 14 million acre-feet (17 cubic kilometres) in 1970 to nearly 26 million acre-feet (32.cubic kilometres) in 2020. About half of the water used in 1970 was ground water. An estimated total of 1.04 billion acre-feet (1,280 cubic kilometres) of recoverable water containing less than 3,000 milligrams per litre dissolved solids is stored above a depth of 400 feet (122 metres) in the aquifers of the region. In addition, part of an estimated 3.28 billion acre-feet (4,040 cubic kilometres) of water in storage below 400 feet (122 metres) is recoverable. Although not all of the ground water in storage is recoverable, a significant amount is available for development, and an enormous quantity is accessible should occasions prompt its use on a time-limited basis. The total steady-state yield (amount of water that approximates the maximum perennial replenishment from precipitation) of the region's aquifers is about 4.6 million acre-feet (5.7 cubic kilometres) annually, or about 2.3 times the ground-water usage in 1970 if the large mining draft on the High Plains is not considered as part of the total steady-state yield. Because of the large quantity of recoverable ground water in storage, the steady-state yield can be augmented for a very long time on a 'deferred' basis, whereby the economic use of the water that is withdrawn from storage in excess of the steady-state yield may result in a strengthened economy. An important goal in programs for meeting future water needs should be to identify the full potential of the available ground-water resources. The subsurface reservoirs may be utilized not only as sources of fresh and treatable water, but as storage facilities for other fresh-water-supplies and as possible sources of geothermal energy. Some saline-water reservoirs may be suitable for liquid-waste storage or disposal. Large-scale and unregulated ground-water pumping may result in hydrologic problems such as declining water levels, streamflow depletion, and land-surface subsidence; but studies on proper development of the groundwater reservoirs could provide solutions to many of the problems. Water rights and other legal concepts should be based on sound hydrologic principles to assist development of water resources in an orderly and efficient manner. Because significant amounts of ground water are available, the opportunities for expanded and conjunctive use of ground water and surface water should be considered in regional plans for water development and conservation. The complexities of water management and the difficulties of achieving an integrated system of total water management will require additional technical information.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas

Summary appraisals of the nation's ground-water resources–Texas-Gulf region

Ground water in the Texas-Gulf Region is a large and important resource that can provide a more significant percentage of the total water supply of the region. Total water requirements within the region are projected to rise sharply from 14 million acre-feet (17 cubic kilometres) in 1970 to nearly 26 million acre-feet (32 cubic kilometres) in 2020. About half of the water used in 1970 was ground water. An estimated total of 1.04 billion acre-feet (1,280 cubic kilometres) of recoverable water containing less than 3,000 milligrams per litre dissolved solids is stored above a depth of 400 feet (122 metres) in the aquifers of the region. In addition, part of an estimated 3.28 billion acre-feet (4,040 cubic kilometres) of water in storage below 400 feet (122 metres) is recoverable. Although not all of the ground water in storage is recoverable, a significant amount is available for development; and an enormous quantity is accessible should occasions prompt its use on a time-limited basis. The total steady-state yield (amount of water that approximates the maximum perennial replenishment from precipitation) of the region's aquifers is about 4.6 million acre-feet (5.7 cubic kilometres) annually, or about 2.3 times the ground-water usage in 1970 if the large mining draft on the High Plains is not considered as part of the total steady-state yield. Because of the large quantity of recoverable groundwater in storage, the steady-state yield can be augmented for a very long time on a "deferred" basis, whereby the economic use of the water that is withdrawn from storage in excess of the steady-state yield may result in a strengthened economy. An important goal in programs for meeting future water needs should be to identify the full potential of the available ground-water resources. The subsurface reservoirs may be utilized not only as sources of fresh and treatable water, but as storage facilities for other freshwater supplies and as possible sources of geothermal energy. Some saline-water reservoirs may be suitable for liquid-waste storage or disposal. Large-scale and unregulated ground-water pumping may result in hydrologic problems such as declining water levels, streamflow depletion, and land-surface subsidence; but studies on proper development of the ground-water reservoirs could provide solutions to many of the problems. Water rights and other legal concepts should be based on sound hydrologic principles to assist development of water resources in an orderly and efficient manner. Because significant amounts of ground water are available, the opportunities for expanded and conjunctive use of ground water and surface water should be considered in regional plans for water development and conservation. The complexities of water management and the difficulties of achieving an integrated system of total-water management will require additional technical information.

Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas

HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATION OF THE UPPER POTOMAC ESTUARY.

Hydrodynamics of the upper extent of the Potomac Estuary between Indian Head and Morgantown, Md. , are simulated using a two-dimensional model. The model computes water-surface elevations and depth-averaged velocities by numerically integrating finite-difference forms of the equations of mass and momentum conservation using the alternating direction implicit method. The fundamental, non-linear, unsteady-flow equations, upon which the model is formulated, include additional terms to account for Coriolis acceleration and meteorological influences. Preliminary model/prototype data comparisons show agreement to within 9% for tidal flow volumes and phase differences within the measured-data-recording interval. Use of the model to investigate the hydrodynamics and certain aspects of transport within this Potomac Estuary reach is demonstrated. Refs.

Conference Paper

Implementation of a hydrodynamic model for the upper Potomac Estuary

A vertically integrated, two-dimensional hydrodynamic/transport model has been implemented for the upper extent of the Potomac Estuary between Indian Head and Morgantown, Md. The model computes water-surface elevations, flow velocities, and time-varying constituent concentrations by numerically integrating finite-difference forms of the equations of mass and momentum conservation in conjunction with transport equations for heat, salt, and dissolved constituents. Previous, preliminary calibration efforts have been extended and validity of the model implementation improved. Field-measured and model-computed water levels compare within ?? 2 cm and maximum computed flood and ebb flow discharges are within 3% of measured values. Indications are that further improvements can be effected.

Conference Paper

New frontiers in bird migration research

Bird migrations are impressive behavioral phenomena, representing complex spatiotemporal strategies to balance costs of living while maximizing fitness. The field of bird migration research has made great strides over the past decades, yet fundamental gaps remain. Technologies have sparked a transformation in the study of bird migration research by revealing remarkable insights into the underlying behavioral, cognitive, physiological and evolutionary mechanisms of these diverse journeys. Here, we aim to encourage broad discussions and promote future studies by highlighting research fields that are characterized by major knowledge gaps or conflicting evidence, namely the fields of navigation, social learning, individual development, energetics and conservation. We approach each topic by summarizing the current state of knowledge and provide a future outlook of ideas and state-of-the-art methods to further advance the field. Integrating knowledge across these disciplines will allow us to understand the adaptive abilities of different species and to develop effective conservation strategies in a rapidly changing world.

Current Biology

Cross-continental evaluation of landscape-scale drivers and their impacts to fluvial fishes: Understanding frequency and severity to improve fish conservation in Europe and the United States

Fluvial fishes are threatened globally from intensive human landscape stressors degrading aquatic ecosystems. However, impacts vary regionally, as stressors and natural environmental factors differ between ecoregions and continents. To date, a comparison of fish responses to landscape stressors over continents is lacking, limiting understanding of consistency of impacts and hampering efficiencies in conserving fishes over large regions. This study addresses these shortcomings through a novel, integrative assessment of fluvial fishes throughout Europe and the conterminous United States. Using large-scale datasets, including information on fish assemblages from more than 30,000 locations on both continents, we identified threshold responses of fishes summarized by functional traits to landscape stressors including agriculture, pasture, urban area, road crossings, and human population density. After summarizing stressors by catchment unit (local and network) and constraining analyses by stream size (creeks vs. rivers), we analyzed stressor frequency (number of significant thresholds) and stressor severity (value of identified thresholds) within ecoregions across Europe and the United States. We document hundreds of responses of fish metrics to multi-scale stressors in ecoregions across two continents, providing rich findings to aid in understanding and comparing threats to fishes across the study regions. Collectively, we found that lithophilic species and, as expected, intolerant species are most sensitive to stressors in both continents, while migratory and rheophilic species are similarly strongly affected in the United States. Also, urban land use and human population density were most frequently associated with declines in fish assemblages, underscoring the pervasiveness of these stressors in both continents. This study offers an unprecedented comparison of landscape stressor effects on fluvial fishes in a consistent and comparable manner, supporting conservation of freshwater habitats in both continents and worldwide.

Europe

Gathering, organizing, and accessing data for use in bird conservation across the Americas

The U.S. North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) Monitoring Subcommittee (2007) identified the need for a comprehensive plan for integrating and managing bird population monitoring data, and to adapt this as an integral component for improving monitoring activities across North America. While the Subcommittee provided a basic framework to begin development of this data management strategy, input from stakeholders is needed to identify data management needs and the technical capacity necessary to solve those challenges. We organized a session at the Fourth International Partners in Flight Conference to solicit input from session participants from across the Americas and identify their data management needs. Session speakers and participants provided examples of the challenges encountered with data management and how the Internet is increasingly used to provide access to the data needed for bird conservation decisions. Input provided during the session indicated that data management needs extended beyond technology to include scientifi c, conservation, social, institutional, and cultural issues. Because data management is intricately related to all aspects of bird conservation, a coordination process that elevates the importance of data management within the bird conservation community is needed, in addition to improving data management associated with bird population monitoring programs. Development of a comprehensive data management strategy for bird population monitoring data would help address the needs and challenges identified during this session.

Conference Paper

U.S. Geological Survey Science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative-2010 Annual Report

This is the third report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. The first report described activities for 2007 and 2008, and the second report covered work activities for FY09. This third report covers work activities conducted in FY2010, and it continues the 2009 approach of reporting on all the individual activities to help give WLCI partners and other readers the full scope of what has been accomplished. New in this year's report is an additional section for each work activity that outlines the work planned for the following fiscal year. In FY2010, there were 35 ongoing/expanded, completed, or new projects conducted under the five major multi-disciplinary science and technical-assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis; (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research; (3) Data and Information Management; (4) Integration and Coordination; and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. The three new work activities were to (1) compile existing water data for the entire WLCI region and (2) develop regional curves (statistical models) for relating bankfull-channel geometry and discharge to drainages in the WLCI region, both of which will help guide long-term monitoring of water resources; and (3) initiate a groundwater-monitoring network to evaluate potential effects of energy-development activities on groundwater quality where groundwater is an important source of public/private water supplies. Results of the FY2009 work to develop methods for assessing soil organic matter and mercury indicated that selenium and arsenic levels may be elevated in the Muddy Creek Basin; thus, the focus of that activity was shifted in FY2010 to evaluate biogeochemical cycling of elements in the basin. In FY2010, two ongoing activities were expanded with the addition of more sampling plots: (a) the study of how greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) use vegetation-treatment areas (sites added to the Moxa Arch Natural Gas Development area) and (2) the study of cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) occurrence in burn treatments of the Little Mountain Ecosystem. The activity that entails evaluating relationships between ungulate herbivory and fire on aspen (Populus tremuloides) recruitment also was expanded to include relationships between stand characteristics of and herbivory on aspen in various ecohydrological settings. The USGS continued compiling data and developing geospatial products from all of its WLCI activities to support (1) ranking and prioritizing of proposed conservation projects, (2) developing the WLCI Integrated Assessment, and (3) developing the WLCI 5-year Conservation Action Plan. Two activities were completed in FY2010: (1) the conceptual modeling and indicator selection for monitoring resource conditions across the WLCI region, and (2) the literature review on effects of oil and gas development in western regions of the United States, both of which are in the last stages of publication.

Open-File Report

Alaska Landbird Conservation Plan

Alaska is a land of extremes. The diversity of its avifauna reflects the heterogeneity of its landscape, with more than 500 species of birds recorded in the state. Species inhabiting primarily terrestrial habitats, known collectively as landbirds, constitute the largest and most ecologically diverse component of the Alaska avifauna. Habitats used by landbirds range from temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska to Arctic tundra across much of northern Alaska. Most of these landbird species are migratory, and four major global migration flyways converge on rich breeding areas in Alaska. Alaska has one endemic landbird species, the McKay’s Bunting, and is home to an impressive number of landbird populations for which it hosts a large proportion of the regional, continental, or global population. Thus, Alaska has a significant stewardship responsibility for these particular landbird species and subspecies. Habitats in Alaska remain largely pristine due to the region’s remote nature, vast size, and small human population. Alaska’s growing population and attendant economic development, however, present many challenges that could affect all wildlife, including landbirds. Threats in Alaska are often considered to be less significant than those occurring elsewhere, where habitats are being altered by more rapidly increasing anthropogenic pressures, but they carry far-reaching consequences nonetheless. Habitats and ecosystem dynamics are changing rapidly due to the magnitude of climate warming at high latitudes. As such, effective landbird conservation in Alaska requires a broad, landscape-scale approach. Conservation of landbirds over such an extensive and diverse landscape also demands that we integrate efforts in habitat management, population monitoring, research, education, and outreach at local, regional, continental, and international scales. Information on distribution and habitat requirements of landbirds should be incorporated into land-use planning decisions. Synthesizing information on distribution and population trends of landbirds is a critical, time-sensitive task. Such information should be provided in a form that is readily available to land managers and policy decision-makers. The primary objectives of this plan are to (1) describe the region and Alaska’s landbird avifauna; (2) identify species of concern, important habitats, and key information needs; (3) highlight major conservation issues and threats to landbirds; and (4) identify potential conservation actions. We first examine landbird conservation at the statewide level within broad perspectives (regional, continental, and global), then take a detailed look at the specific issues, information needs, and potential conservation actions within each Bird Conservation Region in Alaska.

Alaska

Scale perspectives on avian diversity in western riparian ecosystems

Conservation of riparian vegetation in western North America has, in part, emphasized providing habitats for a locally diverse avifauna. Site diversity, especially relative to the number of species present, is generally high within riparian avifaunas. Between-habitat diversity changes across a watershed, with riparian species assemblages differing most from upland assemblages at the highest and lowest elevations. This pattern can be attributed to enhanced avian movements within the riparian vegetation. The corridors for bird movements, in turn, facilitate faunal mixing on a broader scale, influencing regional diversity within landscapes. Riparian ecosystems are viewed as connectors of forests across fragmented landscapes. In western settings, however, they are highly linearized forests transecting watersheds between upland associations of high elevations and very different associations at lower elevations. Regionally, riparian vegetation represents linear islands that are internally both floristically and faunistically dynamic rather than mere bridges of homogeneous vegetation in landscape networks. The significance of riparian vegetation as habitat for western birds has been defined primarily at the local level. Conservation activities favoring site diversity are short-sighted, however, and could have severe consequences for unique elements of riparian avifaunas. Conservation actions must evaluate how local activities alter potential dispersal opportunities for ecological-generalist versus riparian-obligate species. Maintaining the character and integrity of riparian avifaunas requires planning from regional and continental perspectives.

Conservation Biology

Geographic analysis of species richness and community attributes of forest birds from survey data in the mid-Atlantic integrated assessment region

Species richness of local communities is a state variable commonly used in community ecology and conservation biology. Investigation of spatial and temporal variations in richness and identification of factors associated with these variations form a basis for specifying management plans, evaluating these plans, and for testing hypotheses of theoretical interest. However, estimation of species richness is not trivial: species can be missed by investigators during sampling sessions. Sampling artifacts can lead to erroneous conclusions on spatial and temporal variation in species richness. Here we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate parameters describing the state of bird communities in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment (MAIA) region: species richness, extinction probability, turnover and relative species richness. We use a recently developed approach to estimation of species richness and related parameters that does not require the assumption that all the species are detected during sampling efforts. The information presented here is intended to visualize the state of bird communities in the MAIA region. We provide information on 1975 and 1990. We also quantified the changes between these years. We summarized and mapped the community attributes at a scale of management interest (watershed units).

Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West V

Integrated modeling reveals shifts in waterfowl population dynamics under climate change

1. Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife populations. The development of appropriate conservation strategies relies on reliable predictions of population responses to climate change, which require in-depth understanding of the complex relationships between climate and population dynamics through density dependent demographic processes. Integrated population models (IPMs) are a type of modeling approach that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data, providing opportunities to understand and predict population demography and dynamics under climate change. 2. In this study we developed dynamic N-mixture models for large scale population estimates, which became an important component of the IPM we used in data analysis. We then analyzed four decades (1974-2014) of Mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) breeding population survey, band-recovery, and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. Our goals were to examine the complex relationships among climate, density dependent processes, waterfowl population demography and dynamics, identify the key demographic parameters that are sensitive to climate change and are influential to population growth, and forecast population responses to climate change. 3. Our results revealed the interactive effects of temperature and density dependent processes on Mallard recruitment and to a less extent apparent survival. We also found that recruitment explained more variance of population growth than apparent survival. We then forecasted a decrease in Mallard breeding population density in the Northern Prairie Potholes and an increase in Mallard breeding population density in the northern part of our study area, indicating potential shifts in Mallard population dynamics under future climate change. 4. Synthesis and applications Different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations under climate change. Strategies that facilitate recruitment are essential for high-density populations that are relatively vulnerable to climate change. By contrast, low-density populations are relatively resilient to climate change and their habitats may serve as future climate refugia. Adaptive management is essential for evaluating management consequences. Our modelling framework approach can be easily adapted for other species and thus has wide applications in ecology and conservation.

Ecography

Estimating agricultural irrigation water consumption for the High Plains aquifer region with integrated energy- and water-balance evapotranspiration modeling approaches

Estimation of irrigation water use provides essential information for the management and conservation of agricultural water resources. Conventionally, water use data are created based on reports and surveys from water users, whereas manual records may not be complete due to lacking flow meters, measurement gaps, inconsistent methods across regions, and time- and cost-consuming data processing. Alternatively, spatially explicit estimation of irrigation water use can be conducted efficiently using remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) modeling approaches. In this study, we created a gridded blue water evapotranspiration (BWET) dataset to estimate historical irrigation water consumption (1986 – 2020) in the croplands across the United States High Plains aquifer region. The BWET data were generated by integrating an energy-balance ET model [Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance model (SSEBop)] and a water-balance ET model [Vegetation ET model (VegET)]. BWET in croplands indicates crop consumptive use of irrigation water extracted from surface water and groundwater resources. The BWET estimates were compared with reported irrigation water use data for all counties within the aquifer region. The results revealed high agreement between growing season (May – September) BWET and annual water withdrawal at county level. Specifically, correlation coefficients of volumetric BWET and water withdrawal were 0.90 and 0.96, respectively, for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas. The timeseries of BWET and water withdrawal showed similar temporal trends and high covariations. The BWET estimates were systematically lower than the water withdrawal measurements, which was primarily attributed to blue water losses in the irrigation system. The irrigation efficiency, calculated as the ratio of BWET to water withdrawal depth, was 0.57 and 0.74 for the entire aquifer region and western Kansas, respectively. This study demonstrates the capability of using satellite-based ET models (e.g., SSEBop and VegET) to efficiently estimate crop water consumption and evaluate irrigation efficiency at landscape, county, and regional scales.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma,

Blackbrush ( Coleogyne ramosissima Torr. ): State of our knowledge and future challenges

Covering 130,000 square miles and a wide range of elevations from desert to alpine in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico, the Colorado Plateau has long fascinated researchers. The Colorado Plateau VI provides readers with a plethora of updates and insights into land conservation and management questions currently surrounding the region. The Colorado Plateau VI’s contributors show how new technologies for monitoring, spatial analysis, restoration, and collaboration improve our understanding, management, and conservation of outcomes at the appropriate landscape scale for the Colorado Plateau. The volume’s chapters fall into five major themes: monitoring as a key tool for addressing management challenges, restoration approaches to improving ecosystem condition and function, collaboration and organizational innovations to achieve conservation and management objectives, landscape-scale approaches to understanding, and managing key species and ecological communities. Focusing on the integration of science into resource management issues over the Colorado Plateau, this volume includes contributions from dozens of leading scholars of the region. The Colorado Plateau VI proves a valuable resource to all interested in the conservation management, natural history, and cultural biological resources of the Colorado Plateau.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah

Guiding concepts for park and wilderness stewardship in an era of global environmental change

The major challenge to stewardship of protected areas is to decide where, when, and how to intervene in physical and biological processes, to conserve what we value in these places. To make such decisions, planners and managers must articulate more clearly the purposes of parks, what is valued, and what needs to be sustained. A key aim for conservation today is the maintenance and restoration of biodiversity, but a broader range of values are also likely to be considered important, including ecological integrity, resilience, historical fidelity (ie the ecosystem appears and functions much as it did in the past), and autonomy of nature. Until recently, the concept of “naturalness” was the guiding principle when making conservation‐related decisions in park and wilderness ecosystems. However, this concept is multifaceted and often means different things to different people, including notions of historical fidelity and autonomy from human influence. Achieving the goal of nature conservation intended for such areas requires a clear articulation of management objectives, which must be geared to the realities of the rapid environmental changes currently underway. We advocate a pluralistic approach that incorporates a suite of guiding principles, including historical fidelity, autonomy of nature, ecological integrity, and resilience, as well as managing with humility. The relative importance of these guiding principles will vary, depending on management goals and ecological conditions.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

A new modeling approach to prioritize riparian restoration to reduce sediment loading in two Virginia river basins

Human impact, particularly land cover changes (e.g., agriculture, construction) increase erosion and sediment loading into streams. Benthic species are negatively affected by silt deposition that coats and embeds stream substrate. Given that riparian buffers are effective sediment filters, riparian restoration is increasingly implemented by conservation groups to protect stream habitats. Limited funding and a multitude of impaired streams warrant the need for cost-effective prioritization of potential restoration actions. We created a decision-support framework for conservation agencies and aquatic resource managers to prioritize riparian restoration efforts. Our framework integrates GIS data and field surveys into a statistical model to predict instream silt from estimates of upland soil loss and riparian filtration capacity. We focus specifically on prioritizing sites in upper sections of the Roanoke and Nottoway river basins (Virginia, US) based on observed records of Roanoke logperch ( Percina rex ), an imperiled sediment-sensitive species. Our statistical approach examines soil characteristics, land cover, precipitation, topography, and annual soil loss estimates from the empirically derived Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, combined with land cover-based riparian filtration capacity as potential stream habitat predictors. We found riparian filtration capacity to be a significant predictor of silt cover, while precipitation was a significant predictor of embeddedness. Spatial scale was also a factor, in that spatial variance in silt cover and embeddedness was more accurately predicted at smaller spatial extents. Ultimately, our model can be used as a prioritization tool for mitigating high siltation areas, or for protecting low soil erosion areas.

North Carolina, Virginia

A machine learning approach to identify barriers in stream networks demonstrates high prevalence of unmapped riverine dams

Restoring stream ecosystem integrity by removing unused or derelict dams has become a priority for watershed conservation globally. However, efforts to restore connectivity are constrained by the availability of accurate dam inventories which often overlook smaller unmapped riverine dams. Here we develop and test a machine learning approach to identify unmapped dams using a combination of publicly available topographic and geospatial habitat data. Specifically, we trained a random forest classification algorithm to identify unmapped dams using digitally engineered predictor variables and known dam sites for validation. We applied our algorithm to two subbasins in the Hudson River watershed, USA , and quantified connectivity impacts, as well as evaluated a range of predictor sets to examine tradeoffs between classification accuracy and model parameterization effort. The random forest classifier achieved high accuracy in predicting dam sites (true positive rate = 89%, false positive rate = 1.2%) using a subset of variables related to stream slope and presence of upstream lentic habitats. Unmapped dams were prevalent throughout the two test watersheds. In fact, existing dam inventories underestimated the true number of dams by ∼80–94%. Accounting for previously unmapped dams resulted in a 62–90% decrease in dendritic connectivity indices for migratory fishes. Unmapped dams may be pervasive and can dramatically bias stream connectivity information. However, we find that machine learning approaches can provide an accurate and scalable means of identifying unmapped dams that can guide efforts to develop accurate dam inventories, thereby informing and empowering efforts to better manage them.

New York