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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS2020

Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts

There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate–conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Coordinated river infrastructure decisions improve net social-ecological benefits

We explore the social, ecological, economic, and technical dimensions of sustainable river infrastructure development and the potential benefits of coordinating decisions such as dam removal and stream crossing improvement. Dam removal is common practice for restoring river habitat connectivity and ecosystem health. However, stream crossings such as culverts are often 15 times more abundant than dams and may pose similar ecological impacts. Using multi-objective optimization for a model system of 6100 dams and culverts in Maine, USA, we demonstrate substantial benefit-cost improvements provided by coordinating habitat connectivity decisions. Benefit-cost efficiency improves by two orders of magnitude when coordinating more decisions across wider areas, but this approach may cause inequitable resource distribution. Culvert upgrades improve roadway safety and habitat connectivity, creating cost-effective opportunities for coordinating and cost-sharing projects between conservationists and safety managers. Benefit-cost trends indicate significant overlaps in habitat and safety goals, encouraging flexible stakeholder collaborations and cost-sharing strategies.

Maine↗
USGS2020

Patterns and isotopic composition of greenhouse gases under ice in lakes of interior Alaska

Arctic and boreal lake greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are an important component of regional carbon (C) budgets. Yet the magnitude and seasonal patterns of lake GHG emissions are poorly constrained, because sampling is limited in these remote landscapes, particularly during winter and shoulder seasons. To better define patterns of under ice GHG content (and emissions potential at spring thaw), we surveyed carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) concentrations and stable isotopic composition during winter of 2017 in 13 lakes in the arid Yukon Flats Basin of interior Alaska, USA. Partial pressures of CO 2 and CH 4 ranged over three orders of magnitude, were positively correlated, and CO 2 exceeded CH 4 at all but one site. Shallow, organic matter-rich lakes located at lower elevations tended to have the highest concentrations of both gases, though CH 4 content was more heterogeneous and only abundant in oxygen-depleted lakes, while CO 2 was negatively correlated to oxygen content. Isotopic values of CO 2 spanned a narrow range (−10‰ to −23‰) compared to CH 4 , which ranged over 50‰ (−19‰ to −71‰), indicating CH 4 source pathways and sink strength varied widely between lakes. Miller-Tans and Keeling plots qualitatively suggested two groups of lakes were present; one with isotopically enriched source CH 4 possibly more dominated by acetoclastic methanogenesis, and one with depleted signatures suggesting a dominance of the hydrogenotrophic production. Overall, regional lake differences in winter under ice GHG content appear to track landscape position, oxygen, and organic matter content and composition, causing patterns to vary widely even within a relatively small geographic area of interior Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Water balance of the turn-of-the-century drought in the Southwestern United States

Analysis of the water balance of the southwestern United States (SWUS) during 1900 through 2018 was used to evaluate the magnitude of the turn-of-the-century (TOC) drought in the SWUS. Results indicate that the warm season (April through September) soil moisture and runoff during the TOC drought were among the lowest values of the 1900 through 2018 period. Additionally, increases in temperature were identified as a significant driver of low soil moisture and runoff conditions during the warm season. In contrast, during the cool seasons (October through March) and the water year (October 1 through September 30) during the TOC drought, soil moisture and runoff did not indicate extremely dry conditions even though temperatures were the highest of the 1900 through 2018 period.

Soputhwestern United States↗
USGS2021

Decadal-scale hotspot methane ebullition within lakes following abrupt permafrost thaw

Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH 4 ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH 4 ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release 14 C-depleted CH 4 from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH 4 hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older 14 C ages of CH 4 released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes ( 14 C CH4 20 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger 14 C CH4 in new lakes ( 14 C CH4 8526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger 14 C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH 4 -hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Future regulated flows of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon foretell decreased areal extent of sediment and increases in riparian vegetation

Sediment transfer, or connectivity, by aeolian processes between channel-proximal and upland deposits in river valleys is important for the maintenance of river corridor biophysical characteristics. In regulated river systems, dams control the magnitude and duration of discharge. Alterations to the flow regime driven by dams that increase the inundation duration of sediment, or which drive the encroachment of vegetation into areas formerly composed of labile sediment and result in channel narrowing, may reduce sediment transfer from near-channel deposits to uplands via aeolian processes. Employing spatial methods developed by Kasprak et al (2018 Prog. Phys. Geogr. ), here we use data describing the areal extent of bare (i.e. subaerially exposed and non-vegetated) sediment along 168 km of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam in Grand Canyon, USA, in conjunction with inundation extent modeling to forecast how future flows of this highly regulated river will drive changes in the areal extent of sediment available for aeolian transport. We also compare modern bare sediment area to that which presumably would have existed under pre-dam hydrographs. Over the next two decades, the planned flow regime from Glen Canyon Dam will result in slight decreases in bare sediment area (−1%) on an annual scale. This is in contrast to pre-dam years, when unregulated low flows led to marked increases in bare sediment area as compared to the current discharge regime. Our findings also indicate that ~75% of bare sediment in the study reach is inundated continuously at present, owing to increased baseflows in the post-dam flow regime; consequently, any reductions in flows below modern-day low discharges have the potential to expose large areas of bare sediment. We use vegetation modeling to quantify areas susceptible to vegetation encroachment under future flows, finding that 80% of bare sediment area is suitable for colonization by invasive tamarisk under the current flow regime. Our findings imply that the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, a system marked by widespread erosion of sediment resources and encroachment of riparian vegetation in the post-dam period, is likely to continue to see decreasing bare sediment extent over the coming decades in the absence of direct intervention through flow regime modification or widespread vegetation removal.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Globally prevalent land nitrogen memory amplifies water pollution following drought years

Enhanced riverine delivery of terrestrial nitrogen (N) has polluted many freshwater and coastal ecosystems, degrading drinking water and marine resources. An emerging view suggests a contribution of land N memory effects—impacts of antecedent dry conditions on land N accumulation that disproportionately increase subsequent river N loads. To date, however, such effects have only been explored for several relatively small rivers covering a few episodes. Here we introduce an index for quantifying land N memory effects and assess their prevalence using regional observations and global terrestrial-freshwater ecosystem model outputs. Model analyses imply that land N memory effects are globally prevalent but vary widely in strength. Strong effects reflect large soil dissolved inorganic N (DIN) surpluses by the end of dry years. During the subsequent wetter years, the surpluses are augmented by soil net mineralization pulses, which outpace plant uptake and soil denitrification, resulting in disproportionately increased soil leaching and eventual river loads. These mechanisms are most prominent in areas with high hydroclimate variability, warm climates, and ecosystem disturbances. In 48 of the 118 basins analyzed, strong memory effects produce 43% (21%–88%) higher DIN loads following drought years than following average years. Such a marked influence supports close consideration of prevalent land N memory effects in water-pollution management efforts.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2020

Exploring the exceptional performance of a deep learning stream temperature model and the value of streamflow data

Stream water temperature ( T s ) is a variable of critical importance for aquatic ecosystem health. T s is strongly affected by groundwater-surface water interactions which can be learned from streamflow records, but previously such information was challenging to effectively absorb with process-based models due to parameter equifinality. Based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning architecture, we developed a basin-centric lumped daily mean T s model, which was trained over 118 data-rich basins with no major dams in the conterminous United States, and showed strong results. At a national scale, we obtained a median root-mean-square error of 0.69°C, Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of 0.985, and correlation of 0.994, which are marked improvements over previous values reported in literature. The addition of streamflow observations as a model input strongly elevated the performance of this model. In the absence of measured streamflow, we showed that a two-stage model could be used, where simulated streamflow from a pre-trained LSTM model ( Q sim ) still benefited the T s model even though no new information was brought directly into the inputs of the T s model. The model indirectly used information learned from streamflow observations provided during the training of Q sim , potentially to improve internal representation of physically meaningful variables. Our results indicate that strong relationships exist between basin-averaged forcing variables, catchment attributes, and T s that can be simulated by a single model trained by data on the continental scale.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Snowpack signals in North American tree rings

Climate change has contributed to recent declines in mountain snowpack and earlier runoff, which in turn has intensified hydrological droughts in western North America. Climate model projections suggest that continued and severe snowpack reductions are expected over the 21st century, with profound consequences for ecosystems and human welfare. Yet the current understanding of trends and variability in mountain snowpack is limited by the relatively short and strongly temperature forced observational record. Motivated by the urgent need to better understand snowpack dynamics in a long-term, spatially coherent framework, here we examine snow-growth relationships in western North American tree-ring chronologies. We present an extensive network of snow-sensitive proxy data to support high space/time resolution paleosnow reconstruction, quantify and interpret the type and spatial density of snow related signals in tree-ring records, and examine the potential for regional bias in the tree-ring based reconstruction of different snow drought types (dry versus warm). Our results indicate three distinct snow-growth relationships in tree-ring chronologies: moisture-limited snow proxies that include a spring temperature signal, moisture-limited snow proxies lacking a spring temperature signal, and energy-limited snow proxies. Each proxy type is based on distinct physiological tree-growth mechanisms related to topographic and climatic site conditions, and provides unique information on mountain snowpack dynamics that can be capitalized upon within a statistical reconstruction framework. This work provides a platform and foundational background required for the accelerated production of high-quality annually-resolved snowpack reconstructions from regional to high (<12 km) spatial scales in western North America, and by extension, will support an improved understanding of the vulnerability of snowmelt-derived water resources to natural variability and future climate warming.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

The contribution of land cover change to the decline of honey yields in the Northern Great Plains

Decreased availability of forage, as well as increased pesticide exposure, are important factors in the decline of honey bee health. Here, we isolate land cover transitions and their effect on honey production at 160 commercial apiaries in the Northern Great Plains. We found that land cover changes from 2008 to 2012 caused an annual decline in honey yields of 0.9% in the study area. Transitions from grassland to soybean (but not corn) were particularly detrimental to honey yields, potentially due to bee contact with pesticides within and around agricultural fields. When our results are applied to known apiary locations across all of North Dakota (U.S.A.), we estimate a 2.5% (1.6 million USD) decline in 2012 honey yields due to land cover changes occurring between 2008 and 2012. Even when controlling for changes in land cover, we found that on average colonies in the study area experienced a 14% annual decline in honey yields. We discuss possible explanations for these non-land-cover-related honey yield declines, including changing economic conditions (e.g. pollination services), changes in land management (e.g. pesticides), and increases in pests or diseases.

South Dakota↗
USGS2021

Evaluating establishment of conservation practices in the Conservation Reserve Program across the central and western United States

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is one of the largest private lands conservation programs in the United States, establishing perennial vegetation on environmentally sensitive lands formerly in agricultural production. Over its 35 year existence, the CRP has evolved to include diverse conservation practices (CPs) while concomitantly meeting its core goals of reducing soil erosion, improving water quality, and providing wildlife habitat. Ongoing threats to grasslands and decreased CRP acreage highlighted the need for a national evaluation of the effectiveness in providing the program's intended benefits. To address this need, we conducted edge-of-field surveys of erosional features, vegetation, and soil cover on 1 786 fields across 10 CPs and 14 central and western states from 2016 to 2018. We grouped practices into three types (grassland, wetland, and wildlife) and states into six regions for analysis. Across practice types, ≥99% of fields had no evidence of rills, gullies, or pedestaling from erosion, and 91% of fields had <20% bare soil cover, with region being the strongest predictor of bare soil cover. Seventy-nine percent of fields had ≥50% grass cover, with cover differing by practice type and region. Native grass species were present on more fields in wildlife and wetland practices compared to grassland practices. Forb cover >50% and native forb presence occurred most frequently in wildlife practices, with region being the strongest driver of differences. Federally listed noxious grass and forb species occurred on 23% and 61% of fields, respectively, but tended to constitute a small portion of cover in the field. Estimates from edge-of-field surveys and in-field validation sampling were strongly correlated, demonstrating the utility of the edge-of-field surveys. Our results provide the first national-level assessment of CRP establishment in three decades, confirming that enrolled wildlife and wetland practices often have diverse perennial vegetation cover and very few erosional features.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Iowa, Idaho, Kansas↗
USGS2021

Global-scale changes to extreme ocean wave events due to anthropogenic warming

Extreme surface ocean waves are often primary drivers of coastal flooding and erosion over various time scales. Hence, understanding future changes in extreme wave events owing to global warming is of socio-economic and environmental significance. However, our current knowledge of potential changes in high-frequency (defined here as having return periods of less than 1 year) extreme wave events are largely unknown, despite being strongly linked to coastal hazards across time scales relevant to coastal management. Here, we present global climate-modeling evidence, based on the most comprehensive multi-method, multi-model wave ensemble, of projected changes in a core set of extreme wave indices describing high-frequency, extra-tropical storm-driven waves. We find changes in high-frequency extreme wave events of up to ∼50%–100% under RCP8.5 high-emission scenario; which is nearly double the expected changes for RCP4.5 scenario, when globally integrated. The projected changes exhibit strong inter-hemispheric asymmetry, with strong increases in extreme wave activity across the tropics and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere region, and a widespread decrease across most of the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the patterns of projected increase across these extreme wave events over the Southern Hemisphere region resemble their historical response to the positive anomaly of the Southern Annular Mode. Our findings highlight that many countries with low-adaptive capacity are likely to face increasing exposure to much more frequent extreme wave events in the future.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Effects of climate and irrigation on GRACE-based estimates of water storage changes in major US aquifers

Understanding climate and human impacts on water storage is critical for sustainable water-resources management. Here we assessed climate and human drivers of total water storage (TWS) variability from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites compared with drought severity and irrigation water use in 14 major aquifers in the United States. Results show that long-term variability in TWS tracked by GRACE satellites is dominated by interannual variability in most of the 14 major US aquifers. Low TWS trends in the humid eastern U.S. are linked to low drought intensity. Although irrigation pumpage in the humid Mississippi Embayment aquifer exceeded that in the semi-arid California Central Valley, a surprising lack of TWS depletion in the Mississippi Embayment aquifer is attributed to extensive streamflow capture. Marked storage depletion in the semi-arid southwestern Central Valley and south-central High Plains totaled ∼90 km 3 , about three times greater than the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest U.S. reservoir. Depletion in the Central Valley was driven by long-term droughts (⩽5 yr) amplified by switching from mostly surface water to groundwater irrigation. Low or slightly rising TWS trends in the northwestern (Columbia and Snake Basins) US are attributed to dampening drought impacts by mostly surface water irrigation. GRACE satellite data highlight synergies between climate and irrigation, resulting in little impact on TWS in the humid east, amplified TWS depletion in the semi-arid southwest and southcentral US, and dampened TWS deletion in the northwest and north central US Sustainable groundwater management benefits from conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater, inefficient surface water irrigation promoting groundwater recharge, efficient groundwater irrigation minimizing depletion, and increasing managed aquifer recharge. This study has important implications for sustainable water development in many regions globally.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Seasonally dynamic nutrient modeling quantifies storage lags and time-varying reactivity across large river basins

Nutrients that have gradually accumulated in soils, groundwaters, and river sediments in the United States over the past century can remobilize and increase current downstream loading, obscuring effects of conservation practices aimed at protecting water resources. Drivers of storage accumulation and release of nutrients are poorly understood at the spatial scale of basins to watersheds. Predicting water quality outcomes in large river basins demands modeling storage lags and time varying reactivity that models of mean conditions typically cannot elucidate. We developed a seasonally dynamic approach to large-scale nutrient modeling based on a multiscale framework and nutrient storage lags were quantified for the nearly 190 000 small catchments that feed the rivers across the northeastern United States where catchment mean transit times were found to be around 4.7 (2–10) years for nitrogen and 1.3 (0.7–2) years for phosphorus. Nutrient loads carried in river flow in the current season contained a significant—and sometimes dominant—portion of mass lagged in its release from catchment storage repositories. Our approach of integrating storage releases with seasonally dynamic hydroclimatic drivers sets the stage to assess the accumulated effects of nutrient storage and lagged releases to the river interacting with seasonally varying nutrient reactivity and societal management actions throughout large river basins.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Monthly river temperature trends across the US confound annual changes

Climate variations and human modifications of the water cycle continue to alter the Earth's surface water and energy exchanges. It is therefore critical to ascertain how these changes impact water quality and aquatic ecosystem habitat metrics such as river temperatures. Though river temperature trend analyses exist in the literature, studies on seasonal trends in river temperatures across large spatial extents, e.g. the contiguous United States (US), are limited. As we show through both annual and monthly trend analyses for 20 year ( n = 138 sites) and 40 year ( n = 40 sites) periods, annual temperature trends across the US mask extensive monthly variability. While most sites exhibited annual warming trends, these annual trends obscured sub-annual cooling trends at many sites. Monthly trend anomalies were spatially organized, with persistent regional patterns at both reference and human-impacted sites. The largest warming and cooling anomalies happened at human impacted sites and during summer months. Though our analysis points to coherence in trends as well as the overall impact of human activity in driving these patterns, we did not investigate the impact of river temperature observation accuracy on reported trends, an area needed for future work. Overall, these patterns emphasize the need to consider sub-annual behavior when managing the ecological impacts of river temperature throughout lotic networks.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under different scenarios of future climate and land use change

The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use scenarios (low and high) over a 90 year timespan from 2010 to 2100. Collectively, terrestrial ecosystems of the Hawaiian Islands acted as a net carbon sink under low radiative forcing (RCP 4.5) for the entire 90 year simulation period, with low land use change further enhancing carbon sink strength. In contrast, Hawaiian terrestrial ecosystems transitioned from a net sink to a net source of CO 2 to the atmosphere under high radiative forcing (RCP 8.5), with high land use accelerating this transition and exacerbating net carbon loss. A sensitivity test of the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant productivity revealed it to be a major source of uncertainty in projections of ecosystem carbon balance, highlighting the need for greater mechanistic understanding of plant productivity responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Long-term model projections such as ours that incorporate the interactive effects of land use and climate change on regional ecosystem carbon balance will be critical to evaluating the potential of ecosystem-based climate mitigation strategies.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Carbon and ecohydrological priorities in managing woody encroachment: UAV perspective 63 years after a control treatment

Woody encroachment, including both woody species expansion and density increase, is a globally observed phenomenon that deteriorates arid and semi-arid rangeland health, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Mechanical and chemical control treatments are commonly performed to reduce woody cover and restore ecohydrologic function. While the immediate impacts of woody control treatments are well documented in short-term studies, treatment impacts at decadal scales are not commonly studied. Using a controlled herbicide treatment from 1954 in the Sierra Ancha Experimental Forest in central Arizona, USA, we quantify woody encroachment and associated aboveground carbon accumulation in treated and untreated watersheds. Woody encroachment and aboveground carbon are estimated using high resolution multispectral images and photogrammetric data from a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). We then combine the contemporary UAV image-derived estimates with historical records from immediately before and after the treatment to consider long-term trends in woody vegetation cover, aboveground carbon, water yield, and sedimentation. Our results indicate that the treatment has had a lasting impact. More than six decades later, woody cover in two treated watersheds are still significantly lower compared to two control watersheds, even though woody cover increased in all four drainages. Aboveground woody carbon in the treated watersheds is approximately one half that accumulated in the control watersheds. The historical records indicate that herbicide treatment also increased water yield and reduced annual sedimentation. Given the sustained reduction in woody cover and aboveground woody biomass in treated watersheds, we infer that the herbicide treatment has had similarly long lasting impacts on ecohydrological function. Land managers can consider legacy impacts from control treatments to better balance carbon and ecohydrological consequences of woody encroachment and treatment activities.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2021

Paleohydrological context for recent floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

The recent intensification of floods and droughts in the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia has had profound cultural, ecological, and economic impacts that are expected to be exacerbated further by anthropogenic climate change. In part due to short instrumental runoff records, the long-term stationarity of hydroclimatic extremes in this major North American watershed remains poorly understood, highlighting the need to use high-resolution paleoenvironmental proxies to inform on past streamflow. Here we use a network of tree-ring proxy records to develop 11 subbasin-scale, complementary flood- and drought-season reconstructions, the first of their kind. The reconstructions explicitly target management-relevant flood and drought seasons within each basin, and are examined in tandem to provide an expanded assessment of extreme events across the FRB with immediate implications for water management. We find that past high flood-season flows have been of greater magnitude and occurred in more consecutive years than during the observational record alone. Early 20th century low flows in the drought season were especially severe in both duration and magnitude in some subbasins relative to recent dry periods. Our Fraser subbasin-scale reconstructions provide long-term benchmarks for the natural flood and drought variability prior to anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions demonstrate that the instrumental streamflow records upon which current management is based likely underestimate the full natural magnitude, duration, and frequency of extreme seasonal flows in the FRB, as well as the potential severity of future anthropogenically forced events.

British Columbia↗