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USGS2016

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou↗

USGS2005

Geological, hydrological, and biological issues related to the proposed development of a park at the confluence of the Los Angeles River and the Arroyo Seco, Los Angeles County, California

A new park is being considered for the confluence of the Los Angeles River and the Arroyo Seco in Los Angeles County, California. Components of the park development may include creation of a temporary lake on the Los Angeles River, removal of channel lining along part of the Arroyo Seco, restoration of native plants, creation of walking paths, and building of facilities such as a boat ramp and a visitor center. This report, prepared in cooperation with the Mountains Recreation and Conservancy Authority, delineates the geological, hydrological, and biological issues that may have an impact on the park development or result from development at the confluence, and identifies a set a tasks to help address these science issues. Geologic issues of concern relate to surface faulting, earthquake ground motions, liquefaction, landsliding, and induced seismicity. Hydrologic issues of concern relate to the hydraulics and water quality of both surface water and ground water. Biological issues of concern include colonization-extinction dynamics, wildlife corridors, wildlife reintroduction, non-native species, ecotoxicology, and restoration of local habitat and ecology. Potential tasks include (1) basic data collection and follow-up monitoring, and (2) statistical and probabilistic analyses and simulation modeling of the seismic, hydraulic, and ecological processes that may have the greatest impact on the park. The science issues and associated tasks delineated for the proposed confluence park will also have transfer value for river restoration in other urban settings.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2007

San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) Rare Plant Monitoring Review and Revision

Introduction The San Diego Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) was developed for the conservation of plants and animals in the south part of San Diego County, under the California Natural Community Conservation Planning Act of 1991 (California Department of Fish and Game) and the Federal Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended (16 U.S. Code 1531-1544.) The Program is on the leading edge of conservation, as it seeks to both guide development and conserve at-risk species with the oversight of both State and Federal agencies. Lands were identified for inclusion in the MSCP based on their value as habitat for at-risk plants or plant communities (Natural Community Conservation Planning, 2005). Since its inception in the mid-1990s the Program has protected over 100,000 acres, involving 15 jurisdictions and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) in the conservation of 87 taxa. Surveys for covered species have been conducted, and management and monitoring have been implemented at some high priority sites. Each jurisdiction or agency manages and monitors their conservation areas independently, while collaborating regionally for long-term protection. The San Diego MSCP is on the forefront of conservation, in one of the most rapidly growing urban areas of the country. The planning effort that developed the MSCP was state-of-the-art, using expert knowledge, spatial habitat modeling, and principles of preserve design to identify and prioritize areas for protection. Land acquisition and protection are ahead of schedule for most jurisdictions. Surveys have verified the locations of many rare plant populations known from earlier collections, and they provide general information on population size and health useful for further conservation planning. Management plans have been written or are in development for most MSCP parcels under jurisdictional control. Several agencies are developing databases for implementation and management tracking. In many ways this program is at the cutting edge of regional conservation, testing concepts, developing techniques, and demonstrating conservation effectiveness in new and uncharted ways. Periodic program review is crucial to the continued success of the program, as it moves from a phase of planning and acquisition to one of management and monitoring. Ecological monitoring is the key to assessing the success of the protection and management implemented at each individual reserve and for the MSCP as a whole. The ultimate goal of the Program is conservation of at-risk taxa and their habitats, as well as underlying ecological processes that contribute to sustainability of the ecosystem. Monitoring guidelines and timetables were developed by Ogden Environmental and Energy Services Co., Inc. (1996), and reviewed by Conservation Biology Institute (2001). The Program is in transition now, from the initial stage of land protection to one of land management and monitoring to determine population responses to management regimes. Several agencies have already invested substantial effort in status and trend monitoring, while others are developing their monitoring plans. Management is ongoing at several sites. With both management and monitoring, collaboration and coordination among jurisdictions can be especially fruitful in conserving resources and maximizing success.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2010

Simulation of streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

The McTier Creek watershed is located in the Sand Hills ecoregion of South Carolina and is a small catchment within the Edisto River Basin. Two watershed hydrology models were applied to the McTier Creek watershed as part of a larger scientific investigation to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin. The two models are the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) and the grid-based mercury model (GBMM). TOPMODEL uses the variable-source area concept for simulating streamflow, and GBMM uses a spatially explicit modified curve-number approach for simulating streamflow. The hydrologic output from TOPMODEL can be used explicitly to simulate the transport of mercury in separate applications, whereas the hydrology output from GBMM is used implicitly in the simulation of mercury fate and transport in GBMM. The modeling efforts were a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure Research Laboratory. Calibrations of TOPMODEL and GBMM were done independently while using the same meteorological data and the same period of record of observed data. Two U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations were available for comparison of observed daily mean flow with simulated daily mean flow-station 02172300, McTier Creek near Monetta, South Carolina, and station 02172305, McTier Creek near New Holland, South Carolina. The period of record at the Monetta gage covers a broad range of hydrologic conditions, including a drought and a significant wet period. Calibrating the models under these extreme conditions along with the normal flow conditions included in the record enhances the robustness of the two models. Several quantitative assessments of the goodness of fit between model simulations and the observed daily mean flows were done. These included the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency index, Pearson's correlation coefficient, the root mean square error, the bias, and the mean absolute error. In addition, a number of graphical tools were used to assess how well the models captured the characteristics of the observed data at the Monetta and New Holland streamflow-gaging stations. The graphical tools included temporal plots of simulated and observed daily mean flows, flow-duration curves, single-mass curves, and various residual plots. The results indicated that TOPMODEL and GBMM generally produced simulations that reasonably capture the quantity, variability, and timing of the observed streamflow. For the periods modeled, the total volume of simulated daily mean flows as compared to the total volume of the observed daily mean flow from TOPMODEL was within 1 to 5 percent, and the total volume from GBMM was within 1 to 10 percent. A noticeable characteristic of the simulated hydrographs from both models is the complexity of balancing groundwater recession and flow at the streamgage when flows peak and recede rapidly. However, GBMM results indicate that groundwater recession, which affects the receding limb of the hydrograph, was more difficult to estimate with the spatially explicit curve number approach. Although the purpose of this report is not to directly compare both models, given the characteristics of the McTier Creek watershed and the fact that GBMM uses the spatially explicit curve number approach as compared to the variable-source-area concept in TOPMODEL, GBMM was able to capture the flow characteristics reasonably well.

South Carolina↗

USGS2012

Comparison of TOPMODEL streamflow simulations using NEXRAD-based and measured rainfall data, McTier Creek watershed, South Carolina

Rainfall is an important forcing function in most watershed models. As part of a previous investigation to assess interactions among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations in the Edisto River Basin, the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL) was applied in the McTier Creek watershed in Aiken County, South Carolina. Measured rainfall data from six National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative (COOP) stations surrounding the McTier Creek watershed were used to calibrate the McTier Creek TOPMODEL. Since the 1990s, the next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) has provided rainfall estimates at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the NWS COOP network. For this investigation, NEXRAD-based rainfall data were generated at the NWS COOP stations and compared with measured rainfall data for the period June 13, 2007, to September 30, 2009. Likewise, these NEXRAD-based rainfall data were used with TOPMODEL to simulate streamflow in the McTier Creek watershed and then compared with the simulations made using measured rainfall data. NEXRAD-based rainfall data for non-zero rainfall days were lower than measured rainfall data at all six NWS COOP locations. The total number of concurrent days for which both measured and NEXRAD-based data were available at the COOP stations ranged from 501 to 833, the number of non-zero days ranged from 139 to 209, and the total difference in rainfall ranged from -1.3 to -21.6 inches. With the calibrated TOPMODEL, simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall data and those using measured rainfall data produce similar results with respect to matching the timing and shape of the hydrographs. Comparison of the bias, which is the mean of the residuals between observed and simulated streamflow, however, reveals that simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall tended to underpredict streamflow overall. Given that the total NEXRAD-based rainfall data for the simulation period is lower than the total measured rainfall at the NWS COOP locations, this bias would be expected. Therefore, to better assess the use of NEXRAD-based rainfall estimates as compared to NWS COOP rainfall data on the hydrologic simulations, TOPMODEL was recalibrated and updated simulations were made using the NEXRAD-based rainfall data. Comparisons of observed and simulated streamflow show that the TOPMODEL results using measured rainfall data and NEXRAD-based rainfall are comparable. Nonetheless, TOPMODEL simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall still tended to underpredict total streamflow volume, although the magnitude of differences were similar to the simulations using measured rainfall. The McTier Creek watershed was subdivided into 12 subwatersheds and NEXRAD-based rainfall data were generated for each subwatershed. Simulations of streamflow were generated for each subwatershed using NEXRAD-based rainfall and compared with subwatershed simulations using measured rainfall data, which unlike the NEXRAD-based rainfall were the same data for all subwatersheds (derived from a weighted average of the six NWS COOP stations surrounding the basin). For the two simulations, subwatershed streamflow were summed and compared to streamflow simulations at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages. The percentage differences at the gage near Monetta, South Carolina, were the same for simulations using measured rainfall data and NEXRAD-based rainfall. At the gage near New Holland, South Carolina, the percentage differences using the NEXRAD-based rainfall were twice as much as those using the measured rainfall. Single-mass curve comparisons showed an increase in the total volume of rainfall from north to south. Similar comparisons of the measured rainfall at the NWS COOP stations showed similar percentage differences, but the NEXRAD-based rainfall variations occurred over a much smaller distance than the measured rainfall. Nonetheless, it was concluded that in some cases, using NEXRAD-based rainfall data in TOPMODEL streamflow simulations may provide an effective alternative to using measured rainfall data. For this investigation, however, TOPMODEL streamflow simulations using NEXRAD-based rainfall data for both calibration and simulations did not show significant improvements with respect to matching observed streamflow over simulations generated using measured rainfall data.

South Carolina↗

USGS2014

Scaling up watershed model parameters: flow and load simulations of the Edisto River Basin, South Carolina, 2007-09

As part of an ongoing effort by the U.S. Geological Survey to expand the understanding of relations among hydrologic, geochemical, and ecological processes that affect fish-tissue mercury concentrations within the Edisto River Basin, analyses and simulations of the hydrology of the Edisto River Basin were made using the topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL). A primary focus of the investigation was to assess the potential for scaling up a previous application of TOPMODEL for the McTier Creek watershed, which is a small headwater catchment to the Edisto River Basin. Scaling up was done in a step-wise manner, beginning with applying the calibration parameters, meteorological data, and topographic-wetness-index data from the McTier Creek TOPMODEL to the Edisto River TOPMODEL. Additional changes were made for subsequent simulations, culminating in the best simulation, which included meteorological and topographic wetness index data from the Edisto River Basin and updated calibration parameters for some of the TOPMODEL calibration parameters. The scaling-up process resulted in nine simulations being made. Simulation 7 best matched the streamflows at station 02175000, Edisto River near Givhans, SC, which was the downstream limit for the TOPMODEL setup, and was obtained by adjusting the scaling factor, including streamflow routing, and using NEXRAD precipitation data for the Edisto River Basin. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model-fit efficiency and Pearson’s correlation coefficient for simulation 7 were 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Comparison of goodness-of-fit statistics between measured and simulated daily mean streamflow for the McTier Creek and Edisto River models showed that with calibration, the Edisto River TOPMODEL produced slightly better results than the McTier Creek model, despite the substantial difference in the drainage-area size at the outlet locations for the two models (30.7 and 2,725 square miles, respectively). Along with the TOPMODEL hydrologic simulations, a visualization tool (the Edisto River Data Viewer) was developed to help assess trends and influencing variable in the stream ecosystem. Incorporated into the visualization tool were the water-quality load models TOPLOAD, TOPLOAD–H, and LOADEST. Because the focus of this investigation was on scaling up the models from McTier Creek, water-quality concentrations that were previously collected in the McTier Creek Basin were used in the water-quality load models.

South Carolina↗

USGS2004

VEMAP Phase 2 bioclimatic database. I. Gridded historical (20th century) climate for modeling ecosystem dynamics across the conterminous USA

Analysis and simulation of biospheric responses to historical forcing require surface climate data that capture those aspects of climate that control ecological processes, including key spatial gradients and modes of temporal variability. We developed a multivariate, gridded historical climate dataset for the conterminous USA as a common input database for the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP), a biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation model intercomparison. The dataset covers the period 1895—1993 on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid. Climate is represented at both monthly and daily timesteps. Variables are: precipitation, mininimum and maximum temperature, total incident solar radiation, daylight-period irradiance, vapor pressure, and daylight-period relative humidity. The dataset was derived from US Historical Climate Network (HCN), cooperative network, and snowpack telemetry (SNOTEL) monthly precipitation and mean minimum and maximum temperature station data. We employed techniques that rely on geostatistical and physical relationships to create the temporally and spatially complete dataset. We developed a local kriging prediction model to infill discontinuous and limited-length station records based on spatial autocorrelation structure of climate anomalies. A spatial interpolation model (PRISM) that accounts for physiographic controls was used to grid the infilled monthly station data. We implemented a stochastic weather generator (modified WGEN) to disaggregate the gridded monthly series to dailies. Radiation and humidity variables were estimated from the dailies using a physically-based empirical surface climate model (MTCLIM3). Derived datasets include a 100 yr model spin-up climate and a historical Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset. The VEMAP dataset exhibits statistically significant trends in temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure, and PDSI for US National Assessment regions. The historical climate and companion datasets are available online at data archive centers.

Climate Research↗

USGS2017

How similar are forest disturbance maps derived from different Landsat time series algorithms?

Disturbance is a critical ecological process in forested systems, and disturbance maps are important for understanding forest dynamics. Landsat data are a key remote sensing dataset for monitoring forest disturbance and there recently has been major growth in the development of disturbance mapping algorithms. Many of these algorithms take advantage of the high temporal data volume to mine subtle signals in Landsat time series, but as those signals become subtler, they are more likely to be mixed with noise in Landsat data. This study examines the similarity among seven different algorithms in their ability to map the full range of magnitudes of forest disturbance over six different Landsat scenes distributed across the conterminous US. The maps agreed very well in terms of the amount of undisturbed forest over time; however, for the ~30% of forest mapped as disturbed in a given year by at least one algorithm, there was little agreement about which pixels were affected. Algorithms that targeted higher-magnitude disturbances exhibited higher omission errors but lower commission errors than those targeting a broader range of disturbance magnitudes. These results suggest that a user of any given forest disturbance map should understand the map’s strengths and weaknesses (in terms of omission and commission error rates), with respect to the disturbance targets of interest.

Forests↗

USGS2025

Assessing survey design for long-term population trend detection in piping plovers

Determining appropriate spatio-temporal scales for monitoring migratory shorebirds is challenging. Effective surveys must detect population trends without excessive or insufficient sampling, yet many programs lack formal evaluations of survey effectiveness. Using data from 2012 to 2019 on Louisiana’s barrier islands (Whiskey, west Raccoon, east Raccoon, and Trinity), we assessed how spatial and temporal scales influence population trend inference for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ). Point count data were aggregated to grid sizes from 50 to 200 m and analyzed using Bayesian dynamic occupancy models. We found occupancy and colonization estimates varied by spatial resolution, with space–time autocorrelation common across scales. Smaller islands (east and west Raccoon) yielded higher trend detection power due to better detectability, while larger islands (Trinity and Whiskey) showed lower power. Detectability, more than sampling frequency, drove trend inference. Models incorporating spatial autocorrelation outperformed traditional Frequentist approaches but showed poorer fit at coarser scales. These findings underscore how matching analytical scale to ecological processes and selecting appropriate models can influence predictions. Power analysis revealed that increasing survey frequency may improve inference, especially in low-detectability areas. Overall, our study highlights how careful scale selection, model diagnostics, and survey design can enhance monitoring efficiency and support long-term conservation of migratory shorebirds.

Louisiana↗

USGS2021

Temperature variation and host immunity regulate viral persistence in a salmonid host

Environmental variation has important effects on host–pathogen interactions, affecting large-scale ecological processes such as the severity and frequency of epidemics. However, less is known about how the environment interacts with host immunity to modulate virus fitness within hosts. Here, we studied the interaction between host immune responses and water temperature on the long-term persistence of a model vertebrate virus, infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). We first used cell culture methods to factor out strong host immune responses, allowing us to test the effect of temperature on viral replication. We found that 15 ∘ "> ∘ C water temperature accelerated IHNV replication compared to the colder 10 and 8 ∘ "> ∘ C temperatures. We then conducted in vivo experiments to quantify the effect of 6, 10, and 15 ∘ "> ∘ C water temperatures on IHNV persistence over 8 months. Fish held at 15 and 10 ∘ "> ∘ C were found to have higher prevalence of neutralizing antibodies compared to fish held at 6 ∘ "> ∘ C. We found that IHNV persisted for a shorter time at warmer temperatures and resulted in an overall lower fish mortality compared to colder temperatures. These results support the hypothesis that temperature and host immune responses interact to modulate virus persistence within hosts. When immune responses were minimized (i.e., in vitro) virus replication was higher at warmer temperatures. However, with a full potential for host immune responses (i.e., in vivo experiments) longer virus persistence and higher long-term virulence was favored in colder temperatures. We also found that the viral RNA that persisted at later time points (179 and 270 days post-exposure) was mostly localized in the kidney and spleen tissues. These tissues are composed of hematopoietic cells that are favored targets of the virus. By partitioning the effect of temperature on host and pathogen responses, our results help to better understand environmental drivers of host–pathogen interactions within hosts, providing insights into potential host–pathogen responses to climate change.

Pathogens↗

USGS2016

Maxent modeling for predicting potential distribution of goitered gazelle in central Iran: the effect of extent and grain size on performance of the model

The spatial scale of environmental layers is an important factor to consider in developing an understanding of ecological processes. This study employed Maxent modeling to investigate the geographic distribution of goitered gazelle, Gazella subgutturosa (Güldenstädt, 1780), in central Iran using uncorrelated variables at a spatial resolution of 250 m. We used spatial downscaling to downscale WorldClim data to 250-m resolution. We evaluated the sensitivity of the model to different grain and extent sizes from 250 m to 3 km. We compared the performance of the model at different scales using suitability indexes (AUC) and predicted habitat areas. Two models performed with AUC values higher than random (AUCun = 0.957, AUCpu = 0.953). The distribution of potential habitats at 250- m grid size was strongly influenced by bioclimatic data, vegetation type and density, and elevation. There were few spatial divergences between uncorrelated and pruned models. The mean AUC across eight different spatial scales ranged from 0.936 to 0.959. There was a significant negative correlation between grain size and AUC (R2 = 0.57). An increase in grain size increased the predicted habitat area. The extent size and AUC showed a positive correlation (R2 = 0.18). Predicted suitability habitat also decreased as extent size increased (R2 = 0.49). Spatial congruence AUC fluctuated within a small range and the maximum difference occurred between models of 1 × 1 and 2.5 × 2.5 km. These results showed that an increase in extent size is more accurate than an increase in grain size, and the maximum accuracy for predicting distribution of goitered gazelle in Iran was obtained if the grain size and extent size were 750 m.

Turkish Journal of Zoology↗

USGS2015

Encapsulating model complexity and landscape-scale analyses of state-and-transition simulation models: an application of ecoinformatics and juniper encroachment in sagebrush steppe ecosystems

State-and-transition simulation modeling relies on knowledge of vegetation composition and structure (states) that describe community conditions, mechanistic feedbacks such as fire that can affect vegetation establishment, and ecological processes that drive community conditions as well as the transitions between these states. However, as the need for modeling larger and more complex landscapes increase, a more advanced awareness of computing resources becomes essential. The objectives of this study include identifying challenges of executing state-and-transition simulation models, identifying common bottlenecks of computing resources, developing a workflow and software that enable parallel processing of Monte Carlo simulations, and identifying the advantages and disadvantages of different computing resources. To address these objectives, this study used the ApexRMS® SyncroSim software and embarrassingly parallel tasks of Monte Carlo simulations on a single multicore computer and on distributed computing systems. The results demonstrated that state-and-transition simulation models scale best in distributed computing environments, such as high-throughput and high-performance computing, because these environments disseminate the workloads across many compute nodes, thereby supporting analysis of larger landscapes, higher spatial resolution vegetation products, and more complex models. Using a case study and five different computing environments, the top result (high-throughput computing versus serial computations) indicated an approximate 96.6% decrease of computing time. With a single, multicore compute node (bottom result), the computing time indicated an 81.8% decrease relative to using serial computations. These results provide insight into the tradeoffs of using different computing resources when research necessitates advanced integration of ecoinformatics incorporating large and complicated data inputs and models. - See more at: http://aimspress.com/aimses/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=Environ2015030&flag=1#sthash.p1XKDtF8.dpuf

AIMS Environmental Science↗

USGS2012

Carbon export by rivers draining the conterminous United States

Material exports by rivers, particularly carbon exports, provide insight to basin geology, weathering, and ecological processes within the basin. Accurate accounting of those exports is valuable to understanding present, past, and projected basin-wide changes in those processes. We calculated lateral export of inorganic and organic carbon (IC and OC) from rivers draining the conterminous United States using stream gaging and water quality data from more than 100 rivers. Approximately 90% of land area and 80% of water export were included, which enabled a continental-scale estimate using minor extrapolation. Total carbon export was 41–49 Tg C yr −1 . IC was >75% of export and exceeded OC export in every region except the southeastern Atlantic seaboard. The 10 largest rivers, by discharge, accounted for 66% of water export and carried 74 and 62% of IC and OC export, respectively. Watershed carbon yield for the conterminous United States was 4.2 and 1.3 g C m −2 yr −1 for IC and OC, respectively. The dominance of IC export was unexpected but is consistent with geologic models suggesting high weathering rates in the continental United States due to the prevalence of easily weathered sedimentary rock.

Inland Waters↗

USGS2013

Coral reef resilience through biodiversity

Irrefutable evidence of coral reef degradation worldwide and increasing pressure from rising seawater temperatures and ocean acidification associated with climate change have led to a focus on reef resilience and a call to “manage” coral reefs for resilience. Ideally, global action to reduce emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will be accompanied by local action. Effective management requires reduction of local stressors, identification of the characteristics of resilient reefs, and design of marine protected area networks that include potentially resilient reefs. Future research is needed on how stressors interact, on how climate change will affect corals, fish, and other reef organisms as well as overall biodiversity, and on basic ecological processes such as connectivity. Not all reef species and reefs will respond similarly to local and global stressors. Because reef-building corals and other organisms have some potential to adapt to environmental changes, coral reefs will likely persist in spite of the unprecedented combination of stressors currently affecting them. The biodiversity of coral reefs is the basis for their remarkable beauty and for the benefits they provide to society. The extraordinary complexity of these ecosystems makes it both more difficult to predict their future and more likely they will have a future.

ISRN Oceanography↗

USGS2013

Estimating suitable environments for invasive plant species across large landscapes: a remote sensing strategy using Landsat 7 ETM+

The key to reducing ecological and economic damage caused by invasive plant species is to locate and eradicate new invasions before they threaten native biodiversity and ecological processes. We used Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to estimate suitable environments for four invasive plants in Big Bend National Park, southwest Texas, using a presence-only modeling approach. Giant reed ( Arundo donax ), Lehmann lovegrass ( Eragrostis lehmanniana ), horehound ( Marrubium vulgare ) and buffelgrass ( Pennisteum ciliare ) were selected for remote sensing spatial analyses. Multiple dates/seasons of imagery were used to account for habitat conditions within the study area and to capture phenological differences among targeted species and the surrounding landscape. Individual species models had high (0.91 to 0.99) discriminative ability to differentiate invasive plant suitable environments from random background locations. Average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranged from 0.91 to 0.99, indicating that plant predictive models exhibited high discriminative ability to differentiate suitable environments for invasive plant species from random locations. Omission rates ranged from <1.0 to 18%. We demonstrated that useful models estimating suitable environments for invasive plants may be created with <50 occurrence locations and that reliable modeling using presence-only datasets can be powerful tools for land managers.

Texas↗

USGS2003

Planning for population viability on Northern Great Plains national grasslands

Broad-scale information in concert with conservation of individual species must be used to develop conservation priorities and a more integrated ecosystem protection strategy. In 1999 the United States Forest Service initiated an approach for the 1.2× 10 6 ha of national grasslands in the Northern Great Plains to fulfill the requirement to maintain viable populations of all native and desirable introduced vertebrate and plant species. The challenge was threefold: 1) develop basic building blocks in the conservation planning approach, 2) apply the approach to national grasslands, and 3) overcome differences that may exist in agency-specific legal and policy requirements. Key assessment components in the approach included a bioregional assessment, coarse-filter analysis, and fine-filter analysis aimed at species considered at-risk. A science team of agency, conservation organization, and university personnel was established to develop the guidelines and standards and other formal procedures for implementation of conservation strategies. Conservation strategies included coarse-filter recommendations to restore the tallgrass, mixed, and shortgrass prairies to conditions that approximate historical ecological processes and landscape patterns, and fine-filter recommendations to address viability needs of individual and multiple species of native animals and plants. Results include a cost-effective approach to conservation planning and recommendations for addressing population viability and biodiversity concerns on national grasslands in the Northern Great Plains.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2004

Influence of weather extremes on the water levels of glaciated prairie wetlands

Orchid Meadows is a long-term wetland research and monitoring site on the Coteau des Prairie in extreme east-central South Dakota, USA. It is a 65-ha Waterfowl Production Area with numerous temporary, seasonal, and semi-permanent wetlands. Ground water and surface water have been monitored at the site from 1987 to 1989 and from 1993 to the present. Vegetation has been monitored since 1993. The monitoring record includes two nearly back-to-back weather extremes: a drought in the late 1980s and a deluge in the early- to mid-1990s. Wetlands differed sharply in water levels between 3-yr dry and wet periods. For example, the time of inundation ranged among semi-permanent wetlands from 13 to 71 percent during the dry years to 100 percent during the wet years, while for seasonal wetlands, it was 0-29 percent and 46-100 percent, respectively, during dry and wet periods. Temporary wetlands had no surface water during the dry period but had standing water 0-67 percent of the time during the deluge years. The highest ground-water levels during the dry period were lower than most levels during the wet period. The difference in the water-table elevations of temporary wetlands between the periods was as much as 4 m. Ground-water levels near semi-permanent wetlands were considerably more stable (annual range of 0.3-1.6 m) than those near temporary wetlands (1.3-2.5 m). The results support the concept that weather extremes drive the wetland cover cycle and other key ecological processes in prairie wetlands. The new data from Orchid Meadows, together with other long-term data sets from North Dakota and Saskatchewan, Canada, are useful for many research purposes, including the parameterization and testing of models that simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on prairie wetland ecosystems.

Wetlands↗

USGS2010

An Adaptive Management Approach for Summer Water Level Reductions on the Upper Mississippi River System

The primary purpose of this report is to provide an adaptive management approach for learning more about summer water level reductions (drawdowns) as a management tool, including where and how drawdowns can be applied most effectively within the Upper Mississippi River System. The report reviews previous drawdowns conducted within the system and provides specific recommendations for learning more about the lesser known effects of drawdowns and how the outcomes can be influenced by different implementation strategies and local conditions. The knowledge gained can be used by managers to determine how best to implement drawdowns in different parts of the UMRS to help achieve management goals. The information and recommendations contained in the report are derived from results of previous drawdown projects, insights from regional disciplinary experts, and the experience of the authors in experimental design, modeling, and monitoring. Modeling is a critical part of adaptive management and can involve conceptual models, simulation models, and empirical models. In this report we present conceptual models that express current understanding regarding functioning of the UMRS as related to drawdowns and highlight interactions among key ecological components of the system. The models were developed within the constraints of drawdown timing, magnitude (depth), and spatial differences in effects (longitudinal and lateral) with attention to ecological processes affected by drawdowns. With input from regional experts we focused on the responses of vegetation, fish, mussels, other invertebrates, and birds. The conceptual models reflect current understanding about relations and interactions among system components, the expected strength of those interactions, potential responses of system components to drawdowns, likelihood of the response occurring, and key uncertainties that limit our ability to make accurate predictions of effects (Table 1, Fig. 4-10). Based on this current understanding, the main questions still associated with drawdowns include (1) the effects of frequency of drawdowns (from once every few years to multiple years in succession); (2) timing of the beginning of drawdowns (follow the descending arm of the flood pulse versus always beginning in early summer); (3) long-term benefits (greater than 5-6 years), especially as compared to known short-term loses (e.g., mortality of mussels in exposed areas, loss of submersed vegetation in exposed areas, cost of advanced dredging); and (4) the effects in northern (above pool 14) versus southern pools (pool 14 and below, and the Illinois River). An adaptive management design should address these questions to reduce uncertainty in predictions of drawdown effects and help determine if different implementation strategies are needed in different parts of the system. Given that drawdowns will continue to be used as a management tool on the UMRS, we suggest that some drawdowns be conducted in an adaptive management context that helps meet management objectives, but also provides efficient learning about the questions listed above. We propose two different, but interrelated, experimental designs to address these questions. Both designs call for conducting multiple drawdowns in multiple pools (2-4 pools) to allow direct comparison of results and produce rapid learning. However, the report does not provide a detailed scope of work for carrying out the designs. If managers choose to implement one of the experimental designs, specifics of choosing appropriate pools and developing a monitoring plan will need to be determined through collaboration among managers, researchers, and statisticians. We suggest characteristics to consider in selecting treatment and reference pools (study sites) and also provide guidance for developing a monitoring plan. Some aspects of these two designs could be implemented individually, but by implementing individual elements, direct comparisons of some design features

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