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USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Mapping, exploration, and characterization of the California continental margin and associated features from the California-Oregon border to Ensenada, Mexico

Priority Geographic Area: Both within and outside US Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). California continental margin. This area includes and continues south of the geographic area captured in the Watt et al. white paper. Description of Priority Area: The California continental margin, from the narrow shelf to abyssal depths, contains diverse seafloor features that influence benthic community types, biological connectivity, and is associated with significant seafloor geohazards. These complex features include marginal basins, depositional slopes, submarine canyons, ridges, and seamounts, and seep environments as a result of fluid seeps along active faults. Water column characteristics are variable, with steep gradients in current velocities, which influence sediment transport, from depositional fans (slow flow, muddy) to submarine canyons and seamounts (high currents, rocky, rugged terrain). These features and associated environments can influence the distribution of deep-sea habitats, including coral and sponge communities. South of the region described in the Watt et al. and Demopoulos et al. white papers, plentiful seeps occur from northern California down to the southern California Borderland. However, the underlying foundational geology associated with these seeps varies along the margin, changing with contrasting tectonic settings, from convergent tectonics to regions dominated by strike-slip faulting (Barry et al. 1996; Paull et al. 2008; Bernardo and Smith 2010; Maloney et al. 2015). For seeps located off southern California, the relationship to strike-slip fault systems may influence the distribution of seep fluid expulsion sites and associated seep habitats (Maloney et al. 2015; Grupe et al. 2015; Conrad et al., 2017), where transpression plays a key role in formation and localization of fluid seeps. Further exploration is required in order to understand these connections. Several submarine canyons intersect the shelf within this region, serving as important channels of energy and transport of sediment from shelf to slope depths. Canyons are typically associated with high currents, turbidity flows, steep and rugged terrain, and high food availability, all of which structures canyon communities and supports hotspots of biodiversity. Specific canyons along the California margin that have been well studied include Scripps and La Jolla Canyons off San Diego, and Monterey Canyon off Monterey, but many more remain relatively unexplored. Commercially important species of fish and invertebrates have been found associated with canyons, as well as deep-sea corals and sponges (e.g., Barry et al. 1996). However, in contrast to their Atlantic counterparts (e.g., through ACUMEN and ASPIRE campaigns) there has been a dearth of exploration and characterization of canyons along the California margin. A number of questions remain regarding canyon and slope wall stability and associated geohazards, plus, how the canyons connect and influence the broader regional biogeography of benthic communities is unknown. Due to their topography, seamounts along the California margin are characterized by steep slopes, large areas of rocky substrate, and high currents. Hydrological complexity is associated with seamounts given they impinge different watermasses, depending on depth range. This heterogeneity yields complex and diverse benthic communities, including commercially important fishes (e.g., Tracey et al., 2012). The geology of Davidson, Pioneer, San Juan, and Rodriquez Seamounts has received considerable study (e.g., Davis et al., 2010) but other seamounts are less known, including how they are biologically and ecologically connected. For example, research comparing the benthic communities associated with Rodriguez and San Juan Seamounts, located outside of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and within the proposed Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary, to communities found within the sanctuary is critical for managing and protecting resources within the sanctuary and modifying sanctuary boundaries. Exploration would yield the data needed to delineate and characterize essential fish habitats, and deep-sea coral and sponge communities, thus directly connecting the utility of exploration and discovery to decision making. The southern California Borderland is a geomorphologically heterogeneous area created by a complex network of faults, containing deep basins separated by shallow ridges and islands. Persistent fault-related deformation has created complex features, such as exposure of scarps and uplift rocks/ridges, seeps, erosional terraces, hydrate mounds, and mud volcanoes that provide support for thriving benthic communities. That said, significant oxygen minimum zones and low aragonite saturation states persist within several of the basin environments, influencing energy flow, community ecology, and calcification. For example, the combined effects of hypoxia and acidification pose serious threats to marine organisms and biological resources along the California margin. Mapping and exploration of the extensive faults and fault scarps can help constrain historical earthquake activity. But many questions remain regarding how the underlying geology and geological processes have shaped the biological communities.

California↗

USGS2018

Increased scientific rigor will improve reliability of research and effectiveness of management

Rigorous science that produces reliable knowledge is critical to wildlife management because it increases accurate understanding of the natural world and informs management decisions effectively. Application of a rigorous scientific method based on hypothesis testing minimizes unreliable knowledge produced by research. To evaluate the prevalence of scientific rigor in wildlife research, we examined 24 issues of the Journal of Wildlife Management from August 2013 through July 2016. We found 43.9% of studies did not state or imply a priori hypotheses, which are necessary to produce reliable knowledge. We posit that this is due, at least in part, to a lack of common understanding of what rigorous science entails, how it produces more reliable knowledge than other forms of interpreting observations, and how research should be designed to maximize inferential strength and usefulness of application. Current primary literature does not provide succinct explanations of the logic behind a rigorous scientific method or readily applicable guidance for employing it, particularly in wildlife biology; we therefore synthesized an overview of the history, philosophy, and logic that define scientific rigor for biological studies. A rigorous scientific method includes 1) generating a research question from theory and prior observations, 2) developing hypotheses (i.e., plausible biological answers to the question), 3) formulating predictions (i.e., facts that must be true if the hypothesis is true), 4) designing and implementing research to collect data potentially consistent with predictions, 5) evaluating whether predictions are consistent with collected data, and 6) drawing inferences based on the evaluation. Explicitly testing a priori hypotheses reduces overall uncertainty by reducing the number of plausible biological explanations to only those that are logically well supported. Such research also draws inferences that are robust to idiosyncratic observations and unavoidable human biases. Offering only post hoc interpretations of statistical patterns (i.e., a posteriori hypotheses) adds to uncertainty because it increases the number of plausible biological explanations without determining which have the greatest support. Further, post hoc interpretations are strongly subject to human biases. Testing hypotheses maximizes the credibility of research findings, makes the strongest contributions to theory and management, and improves reproducibility of research. Management decisions based on rigorous research are most likely to result in effective conservation of wildlife resources.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2022

Using biological responses to monitor freshwater post-spill conditions over 3 years in Blacktail Creek, North Dakota, USA

A pipeline carrying unconventional oil and gas (OG) wastewater spilled approximately 11 million liters of wastewater into Blacktail Creek, North Dakota, USA. Flow of the mix of stream water and wastewater down the channel resulted in storage of contaminants in the hyporheic zone and along the banks, providing a long-term source of wastewater constituents to the stream. A multi-level investigation was used to assess the potential effects of oil and brine spills on aquatic life. In this study, we used a combination of experiments using a native fish species, Fathead Minnow ( Pimephales promelas ), field sampling of the microbial community structure, and measures of estrogenicity. The fish investigation included in situ experiments and experiments with collected site water. Estrogenicity was measured in collected site water samples, and microbial community analyses were conducted on collected sediments. During the initial post-spill investigation, February 2015, performing in situ fish bioassays was impossible because of ice conditions. However, microbial community (e.g., the presence of members of the Halomonadaceae, a family that is indicative of elevated salinity) and estrogenicity differences were compared to reference sites and point to early biological effects of the spill. We noted water column effects on in situ fish survival 6 months post-spill during June 2015. At that time, total dissolved ammonium (sum of ammonium and ammonia, TAN) was 4.41 mg NH 4 /L with an associated NH 3 of 1.09 mg/L, a concentration greater than the water quality criteria established to protect aquatic life. Biological measurements in the sediment defined early and long-lasting effects of the spill on aquatic resources. The microbial community structure was affected during all sampling events. Therefore, sediment may act as a sink for constituents spilled and as such provide an indication of continued and cumulative effects post-spill. However, lack of later water column effects may reflect pulse hyporheic flow of ammonia from shallow ground water. Combining fish toxicological, microbial community structure and estrogenicity information provides a complete ecological investigation that defines potential influences of contaminants at organismal, population, and community levels. In general, in situ bioassays have implications for the individual survival and changes at the population level, microbial community structure defines potential changes at the community level, and estrogenicity measurements define changes at the individual and molecular level. By understanding effects at these various levels of biological organization, natural resource managers can interpret how a course of action, especially for remediation/restoration, might affect a larger group of organisms in the system. The current work also reviews potential effects of additional constituents defined during chemistry investigations on aquatic resources.

North Dakota↗

USGS2013

Response of Yellowstone grizzly bears to changes in food resources: A synthesis. Final report to the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee and Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommittee

The Yellowstone grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) was listed as a threatened species in 1975 (Federal Register 40 FR:31734-31736). Since listing, recovery efforts have focused on increasing population size, improving habitat security, managing bear mortalities, and reducing bear-human conflicts. The Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee (IGBC; partnership of federal and state agencies responsible for grizzly bear recovery in the lower 48 states) and its Yellowstone Ecosystem Subcommitte (YES; federal, state, county, and tribal partners charged with recovery of grizzly bears in the Greater Yelowston Ecosystem [GYE]) tasked the Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team to provide information and further research relevant to three concerns arising from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals November 2011 decision: 1) the ability of grizzly bears as omnivores to find alternative foods to whitebark pine seeds; 2) literature to support their conclusions; and 3) the non-intuitive biological reality that impacts can occur to individuals without causing the overall population to decline. Specifically, the IGBC and YES requested a comprehensive synthesis of the current state of knowledge regarding whitebark pinbe decline and individual and population-level responses of grizzly bears to changing food resources in the GYE. This research was particularly relevant to grizzly bear conservation given changes in the population trajectory observed during the last decade.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Fish Lake limnology and watershed aqueous geochemistry, Fish Lake Plateau, Utah

Fish Lake is located at 2696 m elevation on the Fish Lake Plateau with a bedrock geology of Oligocene to Pliocene age volcanics and Cretaceous to Eocene age sedimentary rocks. Lake bathymetry indicates a maximum depth of ~27 m and volume of 2.31 x 108 m3. The lake is dimictic with summer water column temperature declines of 13˚C between 7 to 15 m depth, whereas in spring and fall water column is isothermal. Numerous surface streams flow into the lake and there is one surface outflow stream, Lake Creek, which drains to the northeast into Johnson Valley Reservoir and the Fremont River, which is a tributary of the upper Colorado River. Surface inflow streams and spring waters are generally dilute and ionic compositions are consistent with bedrock geology. Spring and creek water oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope compositions indicate snowmelt is the predominant water source to the lake. High evaporative enrichment is indicated by lake water stable oxygen and hydrogen compositions and conservative ions, which suggest evaporative water loss equal or greater than inflow. The ionic and isotope data combined with preliminary discharge measurements provide a preliminary estimated lake-water residence time between approximately 15 and 30 years, although groundwater flux is currently unknown. Dissolved silica concentrations decline by two orders of magnitude between inflowing waters and summer lake waters, indicating substantial uptake by freshwater diatoms and high biological productivity. During summer, epilimnion pH values of 8.7 contribute to slight oversaturation with respect to calcite/aragonite, which suggests that precipitates could form in minor concentration. Below the thermocline pH is near neutral and carbonate mineral dissolution within the water column is likely.

Utah↗

USGS1992

Evaluating fishery rehabilitation under uncertainty: A bioeconomic analysis of quota management for the Green Bay yellow perch fishery

The fishery for yellow perch Perca flavescens in Green Bay, Lake Michigan, is currently operating under a rehabilitation plan based on a commercial harvest quota. We developed a bioeconomic computer model that included links between population density and growth, recruitment, and fishing effort for this fishery. Random variability was included in the stock–recruitment relation and in a simulated population assessment. We used the model in an adaptive management framework to evaluate the effects of the rehabilitation plan on both commercial and sport fisheries and to search for ways to improve the plan. Results indicate that the current quota policy is a member of a set of policies that would meet most management goals and increase total value of the fishery. Sensitivity analyses indicate that this conclusion is robust over a wide range of biological conditions. We predict that commercial fishers will lose money relative to the baseline condition, but they may receive other benefits from the elimination of the common‐property nature of the fishery. The prospect exists for managing variability in harvest and stock size and for maximizing economic returns in the fishery, but more information is required, primarily on sportfishing effort dynamics and angler preferences. Stock‐recruitment relations, density dependence of growth, and dynamics of sportfishing effort are the primary sources of uncertainty limiting the precision of our predictions. The current quota policy is about as good as other policies at reducing this uncertainty and appears, overall, to be one of the best choices for this fishery. The analytical techniques used in this study were primarily simple, heuristic approaches that could be easily transferred to other studies.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2000

What is “natural”? : Yellowstone elk population - A case study

Ecology analyzes the structure and function of ecosystems at all points along the continuum of human disturbance, from so-called pristine forests to urban backyards. Undisturbed systems provide reference points at one end of the spectrum, and nature reserves and parks are highly valued because they can provide unique examples of such ecosystems. Unfortunately the concept of “natural” or pristine is not that easy to define. Indeed, although ecologists have considered pre-Columbian, western-hemisphere ecosystems to have been largely unaltered by human action, and have termed their state “natural” or “pristine,” evidence from archaeology challenges this view. U.S. and Canadian national parks are charged with preserving the “natural,” and thus need to be able to understand and manage for the “natural.” A pivotal “natural” question in Yellowstone National Park management is the size of the northern-range, wintering elk population at Park establishment in 1872, argued both to have been small and large. Integrating and quantifying several sources of evidence provides a consistent picture of a low population (ca. 5,000–6,000), largely migrating out of the northern range in winter, with little vegetation impact. If we accept this conclusion about what is natural for the Yellowstone ecosystem, then it dramatically alters how we view management alternatives for the Park, which currently supports a northern wintering herd of up to ˜ 25,000 elk.

Wyoming↗

USGS2017

Small-scale genetic structure in an endangered wetland specialist: possible effects of landscape change and population recovery

The effects of anthropogenic landscape change on genetic population structure are well studied, but the temporal and spatial scales at which genetic structure can develop, especially in taxa with high dispersal capabilities like birds, are less well understood. We investigated population structure in the Hawaiian gallinule ( Gallinula galeata sandvicensis ), an endangered wetland specialist bird on the island of O`ahu (Hawai`i, USA). Hawaiian gallinules have experienced a gradual population recovery from near extinction in the 1950s, and have recolonized wetlands on O`ahu in the context of a rapidly urbanizing landscape. We genotyped 152 Hawaiian gallinules at 12 microsatellite loci and sequenced a 520 base-pair fragment of the ND2 region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from individuals captured at 13 wetland locations on O`ahu in 2014–2016. We observed moderate to high genetic structuring (overall microsatellite F ST = 0.098, mtDNA F ST = 0.248) among populations of Hawaiian gallinules occupying wetlands at very close geographic proximity (e.g., 1.5–55 km). Asymmetry in gene flow estimates suggests that Hawaiian gallinules may have persisted in 2–3 strongholds which served as source populations that recolonized more recently restored habitats currently supporting large numbers of birds. Our results highlight that genetic structure can develop in taxa that are expanding their range after severe population decline, and that biologically significant structuring can occur over small geographic distances, even in avian taxa.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2019

A comparison of the Trojan Y Chromosome strategy to harvesting models for eradication of nonnative species

The Trojan Y Chromosome strategy (TYC) is a promising eradication method for biological control of nonnative species. The strategy works by manipulating the sex ratio of a population through the introduction of supermales that guarantee male offspring. In the current study, we compare the TYC method with a pure harvesting strategy. We also analyze a hybrid harvesting model that mirrors the TYC strategy. The dynamic analysis leads to results on stability of solutions and bifurcations of the model. Several conclusions about the different strategies are established via optimal control methods. In particular, the results affirm that either a pure harvesting or hybrid strategy may work better than the TYC method at controlling a nonnative species population. Recommendations for resource managers Where harvesting is feasible, it is as effective if not more effective than the classical TYC method. Therein managers may attempt harvesting female fish while stocking males or harvesting both male and female fishes. Managers may attempt linear harvesting, saturating density‐dependent harvesting, and unbounded density‐dependent harvesting. Linear harvesting is seen to be the most effective. We caution against the outright use of harvesting due to various density‐dependent effects that may arise. To this end hybrid models that involve a combination of harvesting and TYC‐type methods might be a better strategy. One may also use harvesting as a tool in mesocosm settings to predict the efficacy of the TYC strategy in the wild.

Natural Resource Modeling↗

USGS1993

Reconnaissance investigation of water quality, bottom sediment, and biota associated with irrigation drainage in and near Humboldt Wildlife Management Area, Churchill and Pershing Counties, Nevada, 1990-91

A reconnaissance investigation was begun in 1990 to determine whether the quality of irrigation drainage in and near the Humboldt Wildlife Management Area, Nevada, has caused or has the potential to cause harmful effects on human health, fish, and wildlife or to impair beneficial uses of water. Samples of surface and ground water, bottom sediment, and biota collected from sites upstream and downstream from the Lovelock agricultural area were analyzed for potentially toxic trace elements. Also analyzed were radioactive substances, major dissolved constitu- ents, and nutrients in water, as well as pesticide residues in bottom sediment and biota. In samples from areas affected by irrigation drainage, the following constituents equaled or exceeded baseline concentrations or recommended standards for protection of aquatic life or propagation of wildlife--in water: arsenic, boron, dissolved solids, mercury, molybdenum, selenium, sodium, and un-ionized ammonia; in bottom sediment; arsenic and uranium; and in biota; arsenic, boron, and selenium. Selenium appears to be biomagnified in the Humboldt Sink wetlands. Biological effects observed during the reconnaissance included reduced insect diversity in sites receiving irrigation drainage and acute toxicity of drain water and sediment to test organisms. The current drought and upstream consumption of water for irrigation have reduced water deliveries to the wetlands and caused habitat degradation at Humboldt Wildlife Management Area. During this investigation. Humboldt and Toulon Lakes evaporated to dryness because of the reduced water deliveries.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS1988

Conservation of North American rallids

The Rallidae are a diverse group in their habitat selection, yet most North American species occur in or near wetlands As a consequence, most species are subject to habitat enhancement or perturbation from waterfowl management programs. The overall effects of these management programs relative to rallid conservation have been assessed for few species, and there is a need for synthesis of such information. In the cases of some species or raves, population status is not known, and suggested directions for conservation and management are needed. Rare, endangered, or status undetermined species or races often occur in areas where related species are classified as game birds, and the effects of such hunting on rarer forms are not known. Their generally secretive nature, the endangered status of several races and populations, and continued loss of habitat and threats to present habitat, warrant an examination of the conservation status of the North American taxa in this group. In 1977, a committee of the International Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies summarized available information on management and biology of American Coots ( Fulica americana ), rails, and gallinules in North America (Holliman 1977). That summary was intended to provide relatively complete information on conservation of these species, and also to provide guidance for research within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Accelerated Research Program for Webless Migratory Shore and Upland Game Birds (ARP). Subsequently, a number of rallid studies were funded under this program. The program was eliminated in 1982, following substantial research activities on North American rallids. Since the demise of the ARP, additional research on rallids in North America has focused on an area the International Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies report failed to cover in detail--that of endangered rallids in the U.S. and their possessions. Most of these studies have been of threatened and endangered taxa in western coastal marshes. This report updates and summarizes information on North American rallids since the ARP report and identifies the major conservation problems of this group with the intent of focusing future efforts on these priority issues. Consideration of island forms occurring within U.S. possessions is beyond the scope of this report, mainly because of the special conservation problems associated with their insular distribution. The major topics include habitat requirements, effects of habitat and hunting management techniques currently practiced on wetland areas, and conservation of endangered and threatened populations. Research needs are identified. Habitats of the American Coot are similar to those of several waterfowl species, and the biology of coots is considered only as it is typical of rails in general.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

USGS2004

Assessing biodiversity in Nuevo Leon, Mexico: Are nature reserves the answer?

The Mexican state of Nuevo Leon, located in the northeastern portion of the country, currently has 26 state and three federal nature reserves covering approximately 4.5% of its land area. These reserves were established for a variety of reasons not necessarily related to conservation purposes. In 2000 in response to a growing concern about the lack of organized conservation reserve planning to protect the important biological and physical features of Mexico, the Mexican Commission for Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity proposed 12 new terrestrial reserves for Nuevo Leon. The new reserves, if established, would increase the proportion of protected lands in the state to almost 24% of the state's land area. We compiled a Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis using digital thematic maps of physical and ecological features to examine how well the existing and proposed reserves incorporated the major biological and physical features of the state. The existing reserves are located primarily in regions with elevations > 1,000-1,500 m, on less productive soils, and are dominated by pine and oak forest cover types. As a result, the state's dominant biotic region - low elevation coastal plain with xeric scrub vegetation - is disproportionately under represented in the current reserve system. The new reserves would expand the protection of biophysical resources throughout the state. However, the inclusion of important resources in the low elevation coastal lands would still be limited.

Nuevo Leon↗

USGS2018

A multiscale natural community and species-level vulnerability assessment of the Gulf Coast, USA

Vulnerability assessments combine quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species or natural communities to current and future threats. When combined with the economic, ecological or evolutionary value of the species, vulnerability assessments quantify the relative risk to regional species and natural communities and can enable informed prioritization of conservation efforts. Vulnerability assessments are common practice in conservation biology, including the potential impacts of future climate scenarios. However, geographic variation in scenarios and vulnerabilities is rarely quantified. This gap is particularly limiting for informing ecosystem management given that conservation practices typically vary by sociopolitical boundaries rather than by ecological boundaries. To support prioritization of conservation actions across a range of spatial scales, we conducted the Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) for four natural communities and eleven focal species around the Gulf of Mexico based on current and future threats from climate change and land-use practices out to 2060. We used the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value (SIVVA) tool to assess both natural community and species vulnerabilities. We observed greater variation across ecologically delineated subregions within the Gulf Coast of the U.S. than across climate scenarios. This novel finding suggests that future vulnerability assessments incorporate regional variation and that conservation prioritization may vary across ecological subregions. Across subregions and climate scenarios the most prominent threats were legacy effects, primarily from habitat loss and degradation, that compromised the adaptive capacity of species and natural communities. The second most important threats were future threats from sea-level rise. Our results suggest that the substantial threats species and natural communities face from climate change and sea-level rise would be within their adaptive capacity were it not for historic habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗

USGS2016

A goodness-of-fit test for occupancy models with correlated within-season revisits

Occupancy modeling is important for exploring species distribution patterns and for conservation monitoring. Within this framework, explicit attention is given to species detection probabilities estimated from replicate surveys to sample units. A central assumption is that replicate surveys are independent Bernoulli trials, but this assumption becomes untenable when ecologists serially deploy remote cameras and acoustic recording devices over days and weeks to survey rare and elusive animals. Proposed solutions involve modifying the detection-level component of the model (e.g., first-order Markov covariate). Evaluating whether a model sufficiently accounts for correlation is imperative, but clear guidance for practitioners is lacking. Currently, an omnibus goodnessof- fit test using a chi-square discrepancy measure on unique detection histories is available for occupancy models (MacKenzie and Bailey, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 9, 2004, 300; hereafter, MacKenzie– Bailey test). We propose a join count summary measure adapted from spatial statistics to directly assess correlation after fitting a model. We motivate our work with a dataset of multinight bat call recordings from a pilot study for the North American Bat Monitoring Program. We found in simulations that our join count test was more reliable than the MacKenzie–Bailey test for detecting inadequacy of a model that assumed independence, particularly when serial correlation was low to moderate. A model that included a Markov-structured detection-level covariate produced unbiased occupancy estimates except in the presence of strong serial correlation and a revisit design consisting only of temporal replicates. When applied to two common bat species, our approach illustrates that sophisticated models do not guarantee adequate fit to real data, underscoring the importance of model assessment. Our join count test provides a widely applicable goodness-of-fit test and specifically evaluates occupancy model lack of fit related to correlation among detections within a sample unit. Our diagnostic tool is available for practitioners that serially deploy survey equipment as a way to achieve cost savings.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2021

Long-term ecosystem and biogeochemical research in Loch Vale watershed, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado

Loch Vale watershed was instrumented in 1983 with initial support from the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to ask whether ecosystems of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) were affected by acidic atmospheric deposition. Research and monitoring activities were expanded in 1991 by the U.S. Geological Survey Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets program to understand the processes, and their interactions, controlling water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes. With help from many collaborators we have characterized trends and patterns in atmospheric deposition, climate, and hydrology, including glaciers and other ice features. Instead of acidic deposition, we documented high atmospheric inputs of reactive nitrogen (Nr), and have studied the ecological consequences in soils, surface water, and vegetation. Using paleolimnology, we documented the onset of human-caused change to lake primary producers ca. 1950 in response to increased Nr deposition and warming. Our results provided the basis for the Colorado Nitrogen Deposition Reduction Plan, a state policy that aims to reduce Nr emissions to protect resources in RMNP by 2032. Carbon cycle research revealed mountain wetlands now release more carbon than they store, and respiration and methane flux occurs even during winter through deep snow packs. Trend analyses found export of Nr to be closely tied to atmospheric inputs, but can lag in response to drought. Current research explores consequences of the combination of warming, changes in precipitation dynamics, and atmospheric deposition of Nr and dust on stream and lake CO 2 dynamics, lake biology and trophic state, and soil carbon composition. Dramatic increases in park visitors have prompted studies on the effects of recreational use on water quality. New tools such as remote sensing and high frequency instream water quality sensors are being applied to lake and stream studies. Monitoring, combined with experiments, models, and spatial comparisons is an essential foundation for science-based resource management.

Colorado↗

USGS2009

Rapid assessment of U.S. forest and soil organic carbon storage and forest biomass carbon sequestration capacity

This report provides results of a rapid assessment of biological carbon stocks and forest biomass carbon sequestration capacity in the conterminous United States. Maps available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are used to calculate estimates of current organic carbon storage in soils (73 petagrams of carbon, or PgC) and forest biomass (17 PgC). Of these totals, 3.5 PgC of soil organic carbon and 0.8 PgC of forest biomass carbon occur on lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). Maps of potential vegetation are used to estimate hypothetical forest biomass carbon sequestration capacities that are 3–7 PgC higher than current forest biomass carbon storage in the conterminous United States. Most of the estimated hypothetical additional forest biomass carbon sequestration capacity is accrued in areas currently occupied by agriculture and development. Hypothetical forest biomass carbon sequestration capacities calculated for existing forests and woodlands are within ±1 PgC of estimated current forest biomass carbon storage. Hypothetical forest biomass sequestration capacities on lands managed by the DOI in the conterminous United States are 0–0.4 PgC higher than existing forest biomass carbon storage. Implications for forest and other land management practices are not considered in this report. Uncertainties in the values reported here are large and difficult to quantify, particularly for hypothetical carbon sequestration capacities. Nevertheless, this rapid assessment helps to frame policy and management discussion by providing estimates that can be compared to amounts necessary to reduce predicted future atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2003

Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities, gaining mandates, and enhancing information exchange to facilitate future efforts for monitoring trends in U.S. bat populations.

Information and Technology Report↗