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USGS2022

The global environmental agenda urgently needs a semantic web of knowledge

Progress in key social-ecological challenges of the global environmental agenda (e.g., climate change, biodiversity conservation, Sustainable Development Goals) is hampered by a lack of integration and synthesis of existing scientific evidence. Facing a fast-increasing volume of data, information remains compartmentalized to pre-defined scales and fields, rarely building its way up to collective knowledge. Today's distributed corpus of human intelligence, including the scientific publication system, cannot be exploited with the efficiency needed to meet current evidence synthesis challenges; computer-based intelligence could assist this task. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches underlain by semantics and machine reasoning offer a constructive way forward, but depend on greater understanding of these technologies by the science and policy communities and coordination of their use. By labelling web-based scientific information to become readable by both humans and computers, machines can search, organize, reuse, combine and synthesize information quickly and in novel ways. Modern open science infrastructure—i.e., public data and model repositories—is a useful starting point, but without shared semantics and common standards for machine actionable data and models, our collective ability to build, grow, and share a collective knowledge base will remain limited. The application of semantic and machine reasoning technologies by a broad community of scientists and decision makers will favour open synthesis to contribute and reuse knowledge and apply it toward decision making.

Environmental Evidence↗

USGS2021

Coalescent methods reconstruct contributions of natural colonization and stocking to origins of Michigan inland Cisco (Coregonus artedi)

Fish population structure in previously glaciated regions is often influenced by natural colonization processes and human-mediated dispersal, including fish stocking. Endemic populations are of conservation interest because they may contain rare and unique genetic variation. While coregonines are native to certain Michigan inland lakes, some were stocked with fish from Great Lakes sources, calling into question the origin of extant populations. While most stocking targeted lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ), cisco ( C. artedi ) were also stocked from the Great Lakes to inland waterbodies. We used population genetic data (microsatellite genotypes and mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequences), coalescent modeling, and approximate Bayesian computation to investigate the origins of 12 inland Michigan cisco populations. The spatial distribution of mtDNA haplotypes suggests Michigan is an introgression zone for two ancestral cisco lineages associated with separate glacial refugia. Low levels of genetic diversity and high levels of genetic divergence were observed for populations located well inland of the Great Lakes relative to populations occupying waterbodies near the Great Lakes. Estimates of recent Great Lakes gene flow ranged from 27 to 48% for populations near the Great Lakes shoreline but were substantially lower (under 8%) for populations further inland. Inland lakes with elevated recent gene flow estimates may have been recipients of stocked coregonine fry, including cisco. Low levels of genetic diversity paired with a high likelihood of endemism as indicated by strong genetic divergence and low Great Lakes population inputs suggest the analyzed cisco populations occupying southern Michigan kettle lakes are of elevated conservation interest.

Michigan↗

USGS1982

Mechanisms for trace metal enrichment at the surface microlayer in an estuarine salt marsh

The relative contributions of adsorption to particulate surfaces, complexation with surface-active organic ligands and uptake by micro-organisms were evaluated with respect to their importance in the surface microlayer enrichment (‘partitioning’) of Cd, Pb and Cu. The contributions of each process were inferred from field data in which partitioning of the dissolved and particulate forms of Cd, Pb and Cu, total and dissolved organic carbon, particles and total bacteria were observed. In the South San Francisco Bay estuary, particle enrichment appears to control trace metal partitioning. Trace metal association with the particulate phase and the levels of partitioning observed were in the order Pb > Cu > Cd and reflect the calculated equilibrium chemical speciation of these metals in computer-simulated seawater matrices.

Marine Chemistry↗

USGS1980

Summary of the river-quality assessment of the upper Chattahoochee River basin, Georgia

The river-quality assessment of the Upper Chattahoochee River Basin included studies of (1) the impact of heat loads on river quality, (2) sediment transport and deposition, (3) magnitude and nature of point and nonpoint discharges, and (4) phytoplankton growth in the river and reservoirs. The combined thermal effects of flow regulation and powerplants effluents resulted in mean daily river temperature downstream of the powerplants about equal to or less than computed natural temperatures. The average annual river temperature in 1976 was 14.0 ? Celsius just upstream of the Atkinson-McDonough thermoelectric powerplants and 16.0 ? Celsius just downstream from the powerplants. During a low-flow period in June 1977 the heat load from the two powerplants caused an increase in river temperatures of about 7 ? Celsius and a subsequent decrease in the dissolved-oxygen concentration of about 0.2 milligrams per liter. During the June low-flow period, point sources contributed 63 percent of the ultimate biochemical oxygen demand and 97 percent of ammonium as nitrogen at the Franklin station. Oxidation of ultimate biochemical demand and ammonium caused dissolved-oxygen concentrations to decrease from about 8.0 milligrams per liter at river mile 299 to about 4.5 milligrams per liter at river mile 271. Dissolved orthophosphate is the nutrient presently limiting phytoplankton growth in the West Point Lake when water temperatures are greater than about 26 ? Celsius.

Alabama, Georgia↗

USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2024

Dam removal cost databases and drivers

The United States (U.S.) has over 90,000 dams listed in the National Inventory of Dams that provide vital infrastructure to support water management for municipal and industrial uses including irrigation, hydropower, flood control, navigation, recreation, and habitat, among other uses (NID 2023). The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operate and maintain approximately 489 and 740 dams, respectively, as well as associated structures which provide flood risk management, navigation, water supply, hydropower, environmental stewardship, fish and wildlife conservation, and recreation benefits. As dams age, structural and operational maintenance investments increase until a time when decisions on whether to rehabilitate, replace, or decommission the dam need to be made. While most dams continue to provide important value even with maintenance requirements, at least 2,000 dams have been removed in the U.S. during the past 110 years, with an upward trend in the last few decades (American Rivers 2023). Decommissioning a dam may be considered when the purpose of the dam is no longer needed or other factors such as dam safety, fish passage, recreation safety, or river restoration goals take higher priority and are more economically feasible for the dam owner long-term. Dam safety programs, river restoration programs, and asset class management programs need cost estimating methods to consider dam decommissioning when appropriate. Traditional cost estimating approaches in planning stages focus mainly on dam removal construction and may leave out or have uncertainty on important complexities that can have substantial effects on total costs and be critical for project success. As the numbers of dam removal case studies increase, a growing set of cost data has become available (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023; American Rivers 2022). However, total costs vary over five orders of magnitude for similar size dams, and it was unclear why. We evaluated three sets of cost data that had varying level of details regarding elements contributing to dam removal costs reported by project managers working on the dam removal studies and construction means and methods. We created planning-level cost estimating tools to assist with projects needing to consider the dam removal alternative: (1) new databases of case studies (Duda et al. 2023a; Tullos and Bountry 2023); (2) scoping questions to help determine if complexity cost drivers will be present; (3) machine learning based regression trees to estimate a potential cost range; and (4) a Computation Guide for Cost Estimating that can be used to inform discussions on potential dam removal cost items, quantities, and unit costs (appendix A). The collected data showed that dam height is important but is not a reliable predictor of the removal cost without considering other elements. However, knowing some basic characteristics about the average annual flow and geographic location of the dam site, in addition to dam size, can improve the ability to use past case studies for planning-level cost estimating. By additionally incorporating scoping questions related to sediment removal, mitigation, or other infrastructure, the likelihood of complexity cost drivers and the initial uncertainty of a cost estimate can be further reduced especially for small dams. Applying the Computation Guide for Cost Estimating requires more robust information but helps users reduce cost uncertainty. This step further refines the dam removal objective, removal approach (partial or full; phased or instantaneous), engineering design, construction means and methods, quantities, and unit costs, and results in a quantitative cost estimate.

Final Report↗

USGS2021

A new analysis of caldera unrest through the integration of geophysical data and FEM modeling: The Long Valley caldera case study

The Long Valley Caldera, located at the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada range in California, has been in a state of unrest since the late 1970s. Seismic, gravity and geodetic data strongly suggest that the source of unrest is an intrusion beneath the caldera resurgent dome. However, it is not clear yet if the main contribution to the deformation comes from pulses of ascending high-pressure hydrothermal fluids or low viscosity magmatic melts. To characterize the nature of the intrusion, we developed a 3D finite element model which includes topography and crust heterogeneities. We first performed joint numerical inversions of uplift and Electronic Distance Measurement baseline length change data, collected during the period 1985–1999, to infer the deformation-source size, position, and overpressure. Successively, we used this information to refine the source overpressure estimation, compute the gravity potential and infer the intrusion density from the inversion of deformation and gravity data collected in 1982–1998. The deformation source is located beneath the resurgent dome, at a depth of 7.5 ± 0.5 km and a volume change of 0.21 ± 0.04 km 3 . We assumed a rhyolite compressibility of 0.026 ± 0.0011 GPa −1 (volume fraction of water between 0% and 30%) and estimated a reservoir compressibility of 0.147 ± 0.037 GPa −1 . We obtained a density of 1856 ± 72 kg/m 3 . This density is consistent with a rhyolite melt, with 20% to 30% of dissolved hydrothermal fluids.

California↗

USGS2012

The mechanics and three-dimensional internal structure of active magmatic systems: Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

Interpretation of abundant seismic data suggests that Kilauea's primary conduit within the upper mantle is concentrically zoned to about 34-km depth. This zoned structure is inferred to contain a central core region of relatively higher permeability, surrounded by numerous dikes that are in intermittent hydraulic communication with each other and with the central core. During periods of relatively high magma transport, the entire cross section of the conduit is utilized. During periods of relatively low to moderate transport, however, only the central core is active. As the conduit penetrates the oceanic crust and enters the volcanic shield, it simultaneously supplies the deeper sections of the rift zones (6-to 10-km depth) and the roots of the summit reservoir with picritic magma. The rift zones at depth are inferred to be almost wholly molten and to possess a high degree of fluid continuity from Heiheiahulu in the East Rift Zone, 45 km westward through the roots of the summit magma reservoir, and well into the Southwest Rift Zone. Higher in the shield, the subcaldera magma reservoir and the shallow rift zones occupy the 2-to 4-km depth interval. Summit-differentiated olivine tholeiite (ρ ≈ 2.62 g cm −3 ) is periodically injected laterally along a horizon of neutral buoyancy within the rift zones, where the density of the magma is just balanced by the in situ density of the shield (Ryan, 1987 a , b ). Deep rift zone intrusions push seaward the deep tectonic blocks of the volcano's south flank. Shallow rift intrusions build a sheeted dike complex, inferred to be in isostatic equilibrium with the higher-density deep rift cores below. General finite element analyses are presented for the deformation and stress fields surrounding such dikes in the horizontal and vertical planes. The dike tip in two and three dimensions is surrounded by a tubular core of tensile (σ 1 , σ 2 ) and shear stress (τ max ). The displacement field is characterized by counterrotating cells on either side of the dike tip which, in vertical orientation, produce the characteristic subsidence above the dike complex, with uplift on either side, forming a ridge-trough-ridge structure. A finite element model of Kilauea's shield computes the displacement fields and principal stress (σ 1 ) distributions resulting from intrusive activity on each or both of the rift zones. Within the summit region, tensile stress lobes produced by the three-dimensional upward extension of the intrusions superpose constructively to produce calderawide regimes of tensile stress, conducive to caldera development. Parametric studies of (1) intrusion in the East Rift Zone only, (2) intrusion in the Southwest Rift Zone only, and (3) intrusion in both rift zones demonstrate their unique kinematic contributions. For case 1, the caldera undergoes a counterclockwise rotation (torque up state) conducive to the development of rightstepping en echelon eruptive fissures, as exemplified by the August 14, 1971, eruption. For case 2, the caldera undergoes a clockwise rotation (torque down state) conducive to the development of left-stepping eruptive fissures, as occurred during the December 31, 1974, eruption. For case 3, the caldera substructure is driven due southward, producing the southward migration of the upper portions of the summit magma reservoir.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS1982

Distributed routing rainfall-runoff model; version II

A computer program of a watershed model for routing storm runoff through a branched system of pipes and (or) natural channels using rainfall as input is described. The model provides detailed simulation of storm-runoff periods selected by the user and a daily soil-moisture accounting between storms. A drainage basin is represented as a set of overland-flow, channel, and reservoir seqments which ,jointly describe the drainage features of the basin. Kinematic wave theory is used for routing flows over contributing overland-flow areas and through the channel network. A set of model segments can be arranged into a network that will represent many complex drainage basins. The model is intended primarily for application to urban watersheds, but may have limited applications to rural watersheds.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1998

Geohydrology of the Central Oahu, Hawaii, ground-water flow system and numerical simulation of the effects of additional pumping

A two-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model was developed for the central Oahu flow system, which is the largest and most productive ground-water flow system on the island. The model is based on the computer code SHARP which simulates both freshwater and saltwater flow. The ground-water model was developed using average pumping and recharge conditions during the 1950's, which was considered to be a steady-state period. For 1950's conditions, model results indicate that 62 percent (90.1 million gallons per day) of the discharge from the Schofield ground-water area flows southward and the remaining 38 percent (55.2 million gallons per day) of the discharge from Schofield flows northward. Although the contribution of recharge from infiltration of rainfall and irrigation water directly on top of the southern and northern Schofield ground-water dams was included in the model, the distribution of natural discharge from the Schofield ground-water area was estimated exclusive of the recharge on top of the dams. The model was used to investigate the long-term effects of pumping under future land-use conditions. Future recharge was conservatively estimated by assuming no recharge associated with agricultural activities. Future pumpage used in the model was based on the 1995-allocated rates. Model results indicate that the long-term effect of pumping at the 1995-allocated rates will be a reduction of water levels from present (1995) conditions in all ground-water areas of the central Oahu flow system. In the Schofield ground-water area, model results indicate that water levels could decline about 30 feet from the 1995 water-level altitude of about 275 feet. In the remaining ground-water areas of the central Oahu flow system, water levels may decline from less than 1 foot to as much as 12 feet relative to 1995 water levels. Model results indicate that the bottoms of several existing deep wells in northern and southern Oahu extend below the model-calculated freshwater-saltwater interface location for the future recharge and pumping conditions. Model results indicate that an additional 10 million gallons per day (beyond the 1995-allocated rates) of freshwater can potentially be developed from northern Oahu. Various distributions of pumping can be used to obtain the additional 10 million gallons per day of water. The quality of the water pumped will be dependent on site-specific factors and cannot be predicted on the basis of model results. If the additional 10 million gallons per day pumpage is restricted to the Kawailoa and Waialua areas, model results indicate that a regional drawdown (relative to the water-level distribution associated with the 1995-allocated pumping rates) of less than 0.6 foot can be maintained in these two areas. The additional pumping, however, would cause salinity increases in water pumped by existing deep wells. In addition, increases in salinity may occur at other wells in areas where the model indicates no significant problem with upconing.

Hawaii↗

USGS1987

Origins of seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer - A case study of the Pajaro Valley, California

Seawater may enter and contaminate stratified coastal aquifers through a number of different pathways. These pathways and their relative contribution are examined in the Pajaro Valley, California, a coastal area with extensive groundwater development. This study considers three pathways of possible intrusion of the primary confined aquifer: (1) onshore leakage from brackish sources, the estuary and sloughs, through the confining layer; (2) near-shore leakage from the ocean through the confining layer; and (3) offshore flow from the ocean through the submarine canyon outcrop of the aquifer. Groundwater flow and seawater intrusion are simulated using an areal, two-dimensional solute-transport computer model. This analysis indicates that leakage through confining layers is the principal mechanism of recharge to the aquifer. Although lateral flow through the offshore outcrop contaminates the aquifer, as a whole, at a higher rate, vertical leakage through the sea floor initially is the main pathway of seawater intrusion to the onshore portion of the aquifer. It is likely that leakage generally is the dominant mechanism of recharge and initial cause of seawater intrusion for poorly-confined, stratified coastal aquifers. This analysis suggests that a significant time interval follows the initial observation of seawater intrusion, during which remedial action can be taken to control lateral flow through the offshore outcrop, which ultimately will be the largest component of future intrusion in these aquifers.

California↗

USGS2004

The global short-period wavefield modelled with a Monte Carlo seismic phonon method

At high frequencies (∼1 Hz), much of the seismic energy arriving at teleseismic distances is not found in the main phases (e.g. P , PP , S , etc.) but is contained in the extended coda that follows these arrivals. This coda results from scattering off small-scale velocity and density perturbations within the crust and mantle and contains valuable information regarding the depth dependence and strength of this heterogeneity as well as the relative importance of intrinsic versus scattering attenuation. Most analyses of seismic coda to date have concentrated on S -wave coda generated from lithospheric scattering for events recorded at local and regional distances. Here, we examine the globally averaged vertical-component, 1-Hz wavefield (>10° range) for earthquakes recorded in the IRIS FARM archive from 1990 to 1999. We apply an envelope-function stacking technique to image the average time–distance behavior of the wavefield for both shallow (≤50 km) and deep (≥500 km) earthquakes. Unlike regional records, our images are dominated by P and P coda owing to the large effect of attenuation on PP and S at high frequencies. Modelling our results is complicated by the need to include a variety of ray paths, the likely contributions of multiple scattering and the possible importance of P -to- S and S -to- P scattering. We adopt a stochastic, particle-based approach in which millions of seismic phonons are randomly sprayed from the source and tracked through the Earth. Each phonon represents an energy packet that travels along the appropriate ray path until it is affected by a discontinuity or a scatterer. Discontinuities are modelled by treating the energy normalized reflection and transmission coefficients as probabilities. Scattering probabilities and scattering angles are computed in a similar fashion, assuming random velocity and density perturbations characterized by an exponential autocorrelation function. Intrinsic attenuation is included by reducing the energy contained in each particle as an appropriate function of traveltime. We find that most scattering occurs in the lithosphere and upper mantle, as previous results have indicated, but that some lower-mantle scattering is likely also required. A model with 3 to 4 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 4-km scale length in the upper mantle and 0.5 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 8-km scale length in the lower mantle (with intrinsic attenuation of Q α = 450 above 200 km depth and Q α = 2500 below 200 km) provides a reasonable fit to both the shallow- and deep-earthquake observations, although many trade-offs exist between the scale length, depth extent and strength of the heterogeneity.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2009

Terrestrial Ecosystems - Topographic Moisture Potential of the Conterminous United States

As part of an effort to map terrestrial ecosystems, the U.S. Geological Survey has generated topographic moisture potential classes to be used in creating maps depicting standardized, terrestrial ecosystem models for the conterminous United States, using an ecosystems classification developed by NatureServe. A biophysical stratification approach, developed for South America and now being implemented globally, was used to model the ecosystem distributions. Substrate moisture regimes strongly influence the differentiation and distribution of terrestrial ecosystems, and therefore topographic moisture potential is one of the key input layers in this biophysical stratification. The method used to produce these topographic moisture potential classes was based on the derivation of ground moisture potential using a combination of computed topographic characteristics (CTI, slope, and aspect) and mapped National Wetland Inventory (NWI) boundaries. This method does not use climate or soil attributes to calculate relative topographic moisture potential since these characteristics are incorporated into the ecosystem model though other input layers. All of the topographic data used for this assessment were derived from the USGS 30-meter National Elevation Dataset (NED ) including the National Compound Topographic Index (CTI). The CTI index is a topographically derived measure of slope for a raster cell and the contributing area from upstream raster cells, and thus expresses potential for water flow to a point. In other words CTI data are 'a quantification of the position of a site in the local landscape', where the lowest values indicate ridges and the highest values indicate stream channels, lakes and ponds. These CTI values were compared to independent estimates of water accumulation by obtaining geospatial data from a number of sample locations representing two types of NWI boundaries: freshwater emergent wetlands and freshwater forested/shrub wetlands. Where these shorelines (the interface between the NWI wetlands and adjacent land) occurred, the CTI values were extracted and a histogram of their statistical distributions was calculated. Based on an evaluation of these histograms, CTI thresholds were developed to separate periodically saturated or flooded land, mesic uplands (moderately moist), and uplands. After the range of CTI values for these three different substrate moisture regimes was determined, the CTI values were grouped into three initial topographic moisture potential classes. As a final step in the generation of this national data layer, the uplands classification was subdivided into either very dry uplands or dry uplands. Very dry uplands were defined as uplands with relatively steep, south-facing slopes, and identification of this class was based on the slope and aspect datasets derived from the NED. The remaining uplands that did not meet these additional criteria were simply re-classified as dry uplands. The final National Topographic Moisture Potential dataset for the conterminous United States contains four classes: periodically saturated or flooded land (CTI = 18.5), mesic uplands (12 =< CTI < 18.5), dry uplands (CTI < 12), and very dry uplands (CTI < 12, Slope > 24 degrees and 91 degrees =< Aspect =< 314 degrees). This map shows a smoothed and generalized image of the four topographic moisture potential classes. Additional information about this map and any of the data developed for the ecosystems modeling of the conterminous United States is available online at http://rmgsc.cr.usgs.gov/ecosystems/.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2007

Analysis of lake-bottom sediment to estimate historical nonpoint-source phosphorus loads

ABSTRACT Bottom sediment in Hillsdale Lake, Kansas, was analyzed to estimate the annual load of total phosphorus deposited in the lake from nonpoint sources. Topographic, bathymetric, and sediment-core data were used to estimate the total mass of phosphorus in the lake-bottom sediment. Available streamflow and water-quality data were used to compute the mean annual mass of phosphorus (dissolved plus suspended) exiting the lake. The mean annual load of phosphorus added to the lake from point sources was estimated from previous studies. A simple mass balance then was used to compute the mean annual load of phosphorus from non-point sources. The total mass of phosphorus in the lake-bottom sediment was estimated to be 924,000 kg, with a mean annual load of 62,000 kg. The mean annual mass of phosphorus exiting in the lake outflow was estimated to be about 8,000 kg. The mean annual loads of phosphorus added to the lake from point and nonpoint sources were estimated to be 5,000 and 65,000 kg, respectively. Thus, the contribution to the total mean annual phosphorus load in Hillsdale Lake is about 7 percent from point sources and about 93 percent from nonpoint sources.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2015

Characteristics of sediment transport at selected sites along the Missouri River, 2011–12

Extreme flooding in the Missouri River in 2011, followed by a year of more typical streamflows in 2012, allowed the sediment-transport regime to be compared between the unprecedented conditions of 2011 and the year immediately following the flooding. As part of a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, this report follows up U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5006 by comparing sediment transport between years and among sampling sites spanning the Garrison Segment in North Dakota, the Gavins Point Segment downstream from Lewis and Clark Lake, and a part of the Channelized Segment along the Nebraska-Iowa border. Suspended sediment, bed material, bedload, and streamflow data from June 2011 through November 2012 were designated as “measured” total loads, wash loads, and bed-material loads; and, alternatively, were applied to the Modified-Einstein Procedure to compute sediment loads that were designated as “estimated” total loads. Beyond the expected result that sediment loads were much lower during typical streamflows than those measured during the flooding, the measured data indicated some localized sediment-transport processes for further examination. Extreme and prolonged flooding can temporarily deplete sediment supplies locally, and evidence indicating such depletion was present at some sites. Unexpectedly high bed-material loads in the Gavins Point Segment may reflect episodic bar erosion just upstream from the sampling site. The relative contribution of bedload was typically 10 percent or less of the total load during the flooding. Following the flooding, this relative amount increased at some sites but not others, the reasons for which are possibly related to differences in stream velocity. Ultimately, the bedload decreased as it entered the Channelized Segment because of increased velocity and the turbulent mixing ability of the river as compared to the Gavins Point Segment. This turbulent mixing may also convert bed-material load into wash load, thereby rendering those sediments unavailable for creating sandbars and other bedforms. Though some of the sampling data support this premise, it was not consistently manifested by differences between the sediment load of the two segments during typical-streamflow conditions. The Modified-Einstein Procedure tended to predict greater total-sediment loads when compared to measured values. These differences may be the result of sediment deficits in the Missouri River that lead to an overprediction by the Modified-Einstein Procedure, the unsampled zone above the streambed that leads to an underprediction by the suspended sampler, or general uncertainty in the sampling approach. The differences between total-sediment load obtained through measurements and that estimated from applied theoretical procedures such as the Modified-Einstein Procedure pose a challenge for reliably characterizing total-sediment transport. Though it is not clear which of the two techniques is more accurate, the general tendency of the two to be within an order of magnitude of one another may be adequate for many sediment studies.

Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, So↗

USGS1976

Techniques for estimating flood depths for Oklahoma streams

Regional relations are defined for estimating the depths of floods having recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 100 years for both natural and urban streams in Oklahoma. Contributing drainage area and the 2-year 24-hour rainfall are the only independent variables required for estimating flood depths for natural streams. For urban streams the percentage of the basin impervious and served by storm sewers is also required. The only limitations are that the stream be unregulated, that the main channels be unimproved, and that the contributing drainage area and the 2-year 24-hour rainfall be in the range of values used to derive the relations. The standard errors of estimate range from 24 percent for the 50- and 100-year floods to 33 percent for the 2-year flood for the natural streams. The estimation error for urban streams is not evaluated due to paucity of data. Although the flood depths estimated from techniques presented in this report are considered less reliable than those obtained from field surveys and hydraulic computations, the ease and simplicity of their determination are expected to make them useful for many purposes. Data on flood depths for 132 gaging stations are given in table 1.

Oklahoma↗

USGS1959

Hydrologic budget of the Beaverdam Creek basin, Maryland

A hydrologic budget is a statement accounting for the water gains and losses for selected periods in an area. Weekly measurements of precipitation streamflow, surface-water storage, ground-water stage, and soil resistivity were made during a 2year period, April 1, 1950, to March 28, 1952, in the Beaverdam Creek basin, Wicomico County, Md. The hydrologic measurements are summarized in two budgets, a total budget and a ground-water budget, and in supporting tables and graphs. The results of the investigation have some potentially significant applications because they describe a method for determining the annual replenishment of the water supply of a basin and the ways of water disposal under natural conditions. The information helps to determine the 'safe' yield of water in diversion from natural to artificial discharge. The drainage basin of Beaverdam Creek was selected because it appeared to have fewer hydrologic variables than are generally found. However, the methods may prove applicable in many places under a variety of conditions. The measurements are expressed in inches of water over the area of the basin. The equation of the hydrologic cycle is the budget balance: P= R+E+ASW+ delta SW + delta SM + delta GW where P is precipitation; R is runoff; ET is evapotranspiration; delta SW is change in surface-water storage; delta SM is change in soil moisture; and delta GW is change in ground-water storage. In this report 'change' is the final quantity minus the initial quantity and thus is synonymous with 'increase.' Further, ,delta GW= delta H .x Yg, in which delta H is the change in ground-water stage and Yg is the gravity yield, or the specific yield of the sediments as measured during the short periods of declining ground-water levels characteristic of the area. The complex sum of the revised equation P ? R - delta SW ? ET - delta SM, which is equal to delta H. x Yg, has been named the 'infiltration residual'; it is equivalent to ground-water recharge. Two unmeasured, but not entirely unknown, quantities, evapotranspiration, (ET) and gravity yield, (Yg), are included in the equation. They are derived statistically by a method of convergent approximations, one of the contributions of this investigation. On the basis of laboratory analysis, well-field tests, and general information on rates of drainage from saturated sediments, a gravity yield of 14 percent was assumed as a first approximation. The equation was then solved, by weeks, for evapotranspiration, ET. The evapotranspiration losses were plotted against the calendar week. Using the time of year as a control, a smooth curve was fitted to the evapotranspiration data, and modified values of ET were read from the curve. These were used to compute weekly values of the infiltration residual which were plotted against ground-water stage. The slope of the line of best fit gave a closer approximation of gravity yield, Yg. The process was repeated. The approximations converged, so that a fourth and final approximation resulted in a close grouping of all the points along a line whose slope indicated a Yg of 11.0 percent, and a slightly asymmetric bell-shaped curve of total evapotranspiration by weeks was obtained that is considered representative of this area. Check calculations of gravity yield were made during periods of low evapotranspiration and high infiltration, which substantiate the computed average of 11.0 percent. Refinements in the method of deriving the ground-water budget were introduced to supplement the techniques developed by Meinzer and Stearns in the study of the Pomperaug River basin in Connecticut in 1913 and 1916. The hydrologic equation for the ground-water cycle may be written Gr=D + delta H. x Yg + ETg, in which Gr is ground-water recharge (infiltration); D is ground-water drainage; delta H is the change in mean ground-water stage (final stage minus initial stage); Yg is gravity yield (taken as 11.0 percent in computations here); an

Water Supply Paper↗

USGS2020

An international code comparison study on coupled thermal, hydrologic and geomechanical processes of natural gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Geologic reservoirs containing gas hydrate occur beneath permafrost environments and within marine continental slope sediments, representing a potentially vast natural gas source. Numerical simulators provide scientists and engineers with tools for understanding how production efficiency depends on the numerous, interdependent (coupled) processes associated with potential production strategies for these gas hydrate reservoirs. Confidence in the modeling and forecasting abilities of these gas hydrate reservoir simulators (GHRSs) grows with successful comparisons against laboratory and field test results, but such results are rare, particularly in natural settings. The hydrate community recognized another approach to building confidence in the GHRS: comparing simulation results between independently developed and executed computer codes on structured problems specifically tailored to the interdependent processes relevant for gas hydrate-bearing systems. The United States Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL), sponsored the first international gas hydrate code comparison study, IGHCCS1, in the early 2000s. IGHCCS1 focused on coupled thermal and hydrologic processes associated with producing gas hydrates from geologic reservoirs via depressurization and thermal stimulation. Subsequently, GHRSs have advanced to model more complex production technologies and incorporate geomechanical processes into the existing framework of coupled thermal and hydrologic modeling. This paper contributes to the validation of these recent GHRS developments by providing results from a second GHRS code comparison study, IGHCCS2, also sponsored by DOE/NETL. IGHCCS2 includes participants from an international collection of universities, research institutes, industry, national laboratories, and national geologic surveys. Study participants developed a series of five benchmark problems principally involving gas hydrate processes with geomechanical components. The five problems range from simple geometries with analytical solutions to a representation of the world’s first offshore production test of methane hydrates, which was conducted with the depressurization method off the coast of Japan. To identify strengths and limitations in the various GHRSs, study participants submitted solutions for the benchmark problems and discussed differing results via teleconferences. The GHRSs evolved over the course of IGHCCS2 as researchers modified their simulators to reflect new insights, lessons learned, and suggested performance enhancements. The five benchmark problems, final sample solutions, and lessons learned that are presented here document the study outcomes and serve as a reference guide for developing and testing gas hydrate reservoir simulators.

Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology↗