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At least 289 records · Page 16Linked to original sources
USGS1921

Surface waters of Kansas, 1895-1919

Kansas is preeminently an agricultural state. According to the United States census of 1910, the area in farms was 43,384,799 acres, or 67,789 square miles, 83 per cent of the total area of the state —82,158 square miles. The products of these farms rank high in value among those of farms in other states, as shown by comparative statistics compiled by the United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Crop Estimates. For the period from 1913 to 1917 Kansas ranked ninth of the states of the United States in the value of all crops raised, exclusive of livestock; in 1919 Kansas ranked fifth. In livestock Kansas ranked sixth in 1918 and eighth in 1919. Climatic conditions have largely dominated agricultural development in Kansas. Early ventures in dry farming in western Kansas, encouraged by a succession of rainy seasons, resulted in disheartening disasters, due to the dry seasons that followed. Throughout that region the farmers have gradually utilized the surface and underground waters for irrigation to provide against this deficiency of rainfall. The floods that have occurred in the valleys of eastern" Kansas at frequent intervals during the past twenty years have been the subject of much investigation by state and Federal organizations. In 1844 and 1903 exceptionally disastrous floods occurred in the Kansas (Kaw) valley. Floods that were of lesser magnitude, but that caused widespread loss and injury to property, have occurred in other years, the most recent being the flood of 1915. Much of the cultivated land in these valleys lies along fertile river bottoms that are annually liable to overflow, and the control of the flood waters on these rivers and their tributaries is therefore one of the problems arising from unfavorable climate that demand early solution. In view of the increasing demand for water for domestic service and fire protection, the need of determining whether the supply is adequate for rapidly growing centers of population throughout the state has recently been impressed very strongly upon a great many communities. The dependability of available sources of water supply during seasons of drought is fully as important as investigations of flood problems. Practical solutions of the many local and statewide water problems, such as flood protection, flood prevention, domestic water supply, drainage, irrigation, and water power, depend largely on a thorough knowledge of certain physical data relating to water resources. Hydrologic conditions differ widely in the different drainage basins, so that long-time investigations of stream-flow phenomena in each basin, as well as long-time investigations of meteorologic conditions over the state, are essential in the formulation of comprehensive plans to meet specific water problems. The collection of long-time records of stream-flow in Kansas which is published in this volume has been prepared for the use of those who are concerned with the different phases of the utilization of water in the state.

Kansas↗
USGS2020

An ecological and conservation perspective

Natural ecosystems are facing unprecedented threats which directly threaten human well-being through decreases in critical ecosystem services (IPBES 2019). The top five drivers causing the largest global impacts to biodiversity and ecosystem services include: 1) changes in land and sea use; 2) direct exploitation of organisms; 3) climate change; 4) pollution, and 5) invasive alien species (IPBES 2019). Although One Health acknowledges the link between the health of humans, animals, and the environment, One Health discussions have historically focused on the prevention and control of infectious disease at the human-animal interface rather than these large-scale drivers of health. While One Health has succeeded in bringing awareness to the need for proactive disease control measures such as strengthened biosecurity and vaccine development (e.g., Machalaba et al., 2018; Middleton et al., 2014), disease is only one component of health. In this chapter, we explore the potential for One Health to shift its focus from disease prevention to health promotion to more fully integrate solutions that protect the health of humans, animals, and the ecosystems on which we all depend for our economies, livelihoods, food security, and health. This shift will facilitate a more seamless inclusion of ecological health and environmental conservation in the One Health paradigm and can serve as the basis for a comprehensive approach to complex problems at the root of global health. We also suggest a framework for creating and applying health metrics for wildlife and ecological systems that will be essential for measuring the success of actions aimed at maintaining or shifting systems to desired states.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Perceptions of conservation introduction to inform decision support among U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service employees

Executive Summary Around the globe, fish and wildlife managers are facing increasingly complex management issues because of multiscale ecological effects like climate change, species invasion, and land-use change. Managers seeking to prevent extinctions or preserve ecosystems are increasingly considering more interventionist techniques to overcome the resulting changes. Among those techniques, translocation methods that intentionally move species into new, less impacted habitats are being considered. These types of translocations are known by a range of terms, including “managed relocation” and “assisted migration,” but the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Species Survival Commission (IUCN SSC, 2013) has proposed “conservation introduction” (CI) as a standard term. As defined by the IUCN SSC, CI is the intentional movement of a species or population outside its indigenous range for conservation purposes. CI can be divided into two forms: assisted colonization and ecological replacement. Assisted colonization is moving species outside its indigenous range to prevent extinction or extirpation of a population. Ecological replacement is moving species to fulfill an important niche that is necessary within an ecosystem. Proponents suggest these methods are necessary to address the ecological challenges managers are trying to overcome. Opponents point out the potential for species to become invasive, introduce disease or parasites, and cause other cascading impacts throughout the ecosystem. The result is controversy and disagreement. As such, it will be imperative to develop clear guidelines and best practices to be followed within wildlife management agencies to prevent potential To this end, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop the current project. The intent was to describe the perceptions of USFWS personnel across many aspects of CI so that the USFWS could use this information in the planning and development of their own internal decision-support framework for CI. This report is presented in five sections. Section 1 introduces the project and provides an in-depth overview of background literature related to CI. Section 2 describes the study design, methods, and study participant characteristics. Section 3 describes key results and recommendations related to the development of a USFWS decision framework. Section 4 investigates a range of perceptions held by participants and establishes baseline information for how USFWS personnel may view CI and its application. Types of viewpoints surveyed include preferred terms and definitions, perceived barriers, perceived risks and tradeoffs, and aspects of success. Perceived barriers refers to factors that may prevent successful implementation of CI and perceived risks refers to potential negative outcomes that may occur as a result of implementing CI. Section 5 provides an overview of our conclusions for this project. Overall, we found that CI is likely to be viewed positively within the USFWS, but employees offered cautions and caveats. Most participants we interviewed feel that it is a necessary tool that will be indispensable in certain situations but also feel that there is more risk associated than with more traditional methods. For this reason, many participants are concerned about the assessment and planning that should be conducted prior to any CI effort. Our results indicate that many USFWS personnel will be open to CI being adopted more regularly but will be looking for clear guidance on how it should be implemented.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2013

A model for evaluating effects of climate, water availability, and water management on wetland impoundments--a case study on Bowdoin, Long Lake, and Sand Lake National Wildlife Refuges

Many wetland impoundments managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System throughout the northern Great Plains rely on rivers as a primary water source. A large number of these impoundments currently are being stressed from changes in water supplies and quality, and these problems are forecast to worsen because of projected changes to climate and land use. For example, many managed wetlands in arid regions have become degraded owing to the long-term accumulation of salts and increased salinity associated with evapotranspiration. A primary goal of the USFWS is to provide aquatic habitats for a diversity of waterbirds; thus, wetland managers would benefit from a tool that facilitates evaluation of wetland habitat quality in response to current and anticipated impacts of altered hydrology and salt balances caused by factors such as climate change, water availability, and management actions. A spreadsheet model that simulates the overall water and salinity balance (WSB model) of managed wetland impoundments is presented. The WSB model depicts various habitat metrics, such as water depth, salinity, and surface areas (inundated, dry), which can be used to evaluate alternative management actions under various water-availability and climate scenarios. The WSB model uses widely available spreadsheet software, is relatively simple to use, relies on widely available inputs, and is readily adaptable to specific locations. The WSB model was validated using data from three National Wildlife Refuges with direct and indirect connections to water resources associated with rivers, and common data limitations are highlighted. The WSB model also was used to conduct simulations based on hypothetical climate and management scenarios to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating alternative management strategies and climate futures. The WSB model worked well across a range of National Wildlife Refuges and could be a valuable tool for USFWS staff when evaluating system state and management alternatives and establishing long-term goals and objectives.

Bowdoin National Wildlife Refuge;Long Lake Nationa↗
USGS2022

A RADical approach to conservation in Alaska: Rapid climate change requires a new perspective

In Alaska, conservation areas are managed to promote the persistence of wild species, habitats, cultural resources, visitor experiences, and ecosystem services. Many conservation areas are managed by federal or state agencies, and have specific boundaries, missions, and legislative mandates. Many are also the domains of Indigenous and local people who derive livelihoods and cultural identity from these lands. These areas vary considerably as to whether they are managed solely for conservation versus other additional values. Myriad threats challenge the sustainability of these values, and conservation areas often exist to mitigate such threats. But regardless of jurisdiction, legal contexts, or historical impacts, all these places face challenges, unprecedented during human habitation, from one globally pervasive threat: anthropogenic climate change. Yes, ecosystems, including people who depend on them, have adapted to constant change in Alaska over most of the Holocene if not before (at least the last 18kyr). And this experience has conferred upon its constituents learned adaptive capacity, capabilities, and knowledges among the most flexible on the planet. We discuss the implications of the Resist, Accept, Direct adaptation framework in the context of conservation management in Alaska.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.

Global Environmental Change↗
USGS2011

Conservation Effects Assessment Project-Wetlands assessment in California's Central Valley and Upper Klamath River Basin

Executive Summary-Ecosystem Services Derived from Wetlands Reserve Program Conservation Practices in California's Central Valley and Oregon's Upper Klamath River Basin. The Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) is one of several programs implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Since the WRP's inception in 1990, it has resulted in the restoration of approximately 29,000 hectares in California's Central Valley (CCV) and roughly 12,300 hectares in Oregon's Upper Klamath River Basin (UKRB). Both the CCV and UKRB are agricultural dominated landscapes that have experienced extensive wetland losses and hydrological alteration. Restored habitats in the CCV and UKRB are thought to provide a variety of ecosystem services, but little is known about the actual benefits afforded. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit in collaboration with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service surveyed 70 WRP sites and 12 National Wildlife Refuge sites in the CCV, and 11 sites in the UKRB to estimate ecosystem services provided. In the CCV, sites were selected along three primary gradients; (1) restoration age, (2) management intensity, and (3) latitude (climate). Sites in the UKRB were assessed along restoration age and management intensity gradients where possible. The management intensity gradient included information about the type and frequency of conservation practices applied at each site, which was then ranked into three categories that differentiated sites primarily along a hydrological gradient. Information collected was used to estimate the following ecosystem services: Soil and vegetation nutrient content, soil loss reduction, floodwater storage as well as avian, amphibian, fish, and pollinator use and habitat availability. Prior to this study, very little was known about WRP habitat morphology in the CCV and UKRB. Therefore in this study, we described these habitats and related them to ecosystem services provided. Our results indicate that although WRP in the CCV and UKRB provide a number of benefits, there may be management mediated trade-offs among ecosystem services. In this report, we considered ecosystem services at the site-specific scale; however, future work will extend to include effects of WRP relative to surrounding cropland.

California↗
USGS2018

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2017

Climate and land-use change in wetlands: A dedication

Future climate and land-use change may wreak havoc on wetlands, with the potential to erode their values as harbors for biota and providers of human services. Wetlands are important to protect, particularly because these provide a variety of ecosystem services including wildlife habitat, water purification, flood storage, and storm protection (Mitsch, Bernal, and Hernandez 2015). Without healthy wetlands, future generations may become increasingly less in harmony with the sustainability of the Earth. To this end, the thematic feature on climate and land-use change in wetlands explores the critical role of wetlands in the overall health and well-being of humans and our planet. Our special feature contributes to the understanding of the idea that the health of natural ecosystems and humans are linked and potentially stressed by climate change and land-use change (Horton and Lo 2015; McDonald 2015). In particular, this special issue considers the important role of wetlands in the environment, and how land-use and environmental change might affect them in the future.

Ecosystem Health and Sustainability↗
USGS2011

Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation in the middle part of the record.

Colorado;Idaho;Utah;Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Evaluating an improved systems approach to wetland crediting: Consideration of wetland ecosystem services

The Chesapeake Bay Agreement (CBA) has numerous direct goals for improving habitat, living resources, and water quality, conserving lands, engaging communities and addressing a changing climate. To date, the progress toward the wetlands outcome (creation/ restoration of 85,000 acres and enhancement of 150,000 acres) has been very slow and the outcome is projected to be off course for 2025. Two specific confounding issues arise in efforts to achieve the Bay wetlands goal: 1) the idea that restoration is driven, and incentivized and accounted for, in order to meet the TMDL’s water quality (WQ) benefits, leaving habitat benefits undervalued; and 2) there is often tension between competing restoration priorities and financial resources among different Best Management Practice (BMP) types that include wetlands, such as wetland restoration/creation/rehabilitation, stream restoration, and the creation or restoration of forest buffers. The collaborative workshop “ Evaluating an Improved Systems Approach to Wetland Crediting: Consideration of Wetland Ecosystem Services ” was held March 22-23, 2022 to explore the wetland accounting system and provide insight on improved approaches to promote wetland projects toward the wetlands outcome. Four sessions were organized around topics of 1) Accounting, 2) Landscape Systems Approach, 3) Wetlands Projects and Co-Benefits, and 4) Management Implications and Recommendation Development with 21 presentations, Q and A and facilitated discussions. Acknowledgement of the limitations of the current management framework to achieve significant gains in wetland area supports the conclusion that absent significant adaptive management of wetlands efforts, any outcome for net wetlands gains beyond 2025 will be similarly confounded. Workshop findings included suggestions for how to approach restoration projects at a systems level (e.g., creek, shoreline reach, watershed) in order to maximize synergies for multiple ecological outcomes and ecosystem services. Recommendations for improvement on existing efforts, as well as new processes, tools and partnerships are suggested from the workshop’s analysis of the state of the science as considerations to increase implementation of wetlands projects.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗
USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2012

Integrated monitoring of ecological conditions in wetland-upland landscapes

Landscapes of interwoven wetlands and uplands offer a rich set of ecosystem goods and services. Managing lands to maximize ecosystem services requires information that distinguishes change caused by local actions from broader-scale shifts in climate, land use, and other forms of global change. Satellite and airborne sensors collect valuable data for this purpose, especially when the data are analyzed along with data collected from ground-based sensors. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using remote sensing technology in this way as part of the Terrestrial Wetland Global Change Research Network to assess effects of climate change interacting with land-use change and other potential stressors along environmental gradients of wetland-upland landscapes in the United States and Canada.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2013

Tools for beach health data management, data processing, and predictive model implementation

This fact sheet describes utilities created for management of recreational waters to provide efficient data management, data aggregation, and predictive modeling as well as a prototype geographic information system (GIS)-based tool for data visualization and summary. All of these utilities were developed to assist beach managers in making decisions to protect public health. The Environmental Data Discovery and Transformation (EnDDaT) Web service identifies, compiles, and sorts environmental data from a variety of sources that help to define climatic, hydrologic, and hydrodynamic characteristics including multiple data sources within the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Great Lakes Beach Health Database (GLBH-DB) and Web application was designed to provide a flexible input, export, and storage platform for beach water quality and sanitary survey monitoring data to compliment beach monitoring programs within the Great Lakes. A real-time predictive modeling strategy was implemented by combining the capabilities of EnDDaT and the GLBH-DB for timely, automated prediction of beach water quality. The GIS-based tool was developed to map beaches based on their physical and biological characteristics, which was shared with multiple partners to provide concepts and information for future Web-accessible beach data outlets.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2010

Framework for ecological monitoring on lands of Alaska National Wildlife Refuges and their partners

National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska and throughout the U.S. have begun developing a spatially comprehensive monitoring program to inform management decisions, and to provide data to broader research projects. In an era of unprecedented rates of climate change, monitoring is essential to detecting, understanding, communicating and mitigating climate-change effects on refuge and other resources under the protection of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and requires monitoring results to address spatial scales broader than individual refuges. This document provides guidance for building a monitoring program for refuges in Alaska that meets refuge-specific management needs while also allowing synthesis and summary of ecological conditions at the ecoregional and statewide spatial scales.

Alaska↗
USGS2014

Temperature data acquired from the DOI/GTN-P Deep Borehole Array on the Arctic Slope of Alaska, 1973-2013

A homogeneous set of temperature measurements obtained from the DOI/GTN-P Deep Borehole Array between 1973 and 2013 is presented; DOI/GTN-P is the US Department of the Interior contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P). The 23-element array is located on the Arctic Slope of Alaska, a region of cold continuous permafrost. Most of the monitoring wells are situated on the Arctic coastal plain between the Brooks Range and the Arctic Ocean, while others are in the foothills to the south. The data represent the true temperatures in the wellbores and surrounding rocks at the time of the measurements; they have not been corrected to remove the thermal disturbance caused by drilling the wells. With a few exceptions, the drilling disturbance is estimated to have been on the order of 0.1 K or less by 1989. Thus, most of the temperature measurements acquired during the last 25 yr are little affected by the drilling disturbance. The data contribute to ongoing efforts to monitor changes in the thermal state of permafrost in both hemispheres by the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, one of the primary subnetworks of the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). The data will also be useful for refining our basic understanding of the physical conditions in permafrost in Arctic Alaska, as well as providing important information for validating predictive models used for climate impact assessments. The processed data are available from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS) repository at doi:10.5065/D6N014HK.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Simulating hydrologic response to climate change scenarios in four selected watersheds of New Hampshire

The State of New Hampshire has initiated a coordinated effort to proactively prepare for the effects of climate change on the natural and human resources of New Hampshire. An important aspect of this effort is to develop a vulnerability assessment of hydrologic response to climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, is developing tools to predict how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect change in the hydrology of watersheds in the State. This study is a test case to assemble the information and create the tools to assess the hydrologic vulnerabilities in four specific watersheds. The study uses output from general circulation models to drive hydrologic simulations of streamflow, groundwater base flow (hereafter referred to as base flow), and snowfall in four representative watersheds in New Hampshire during the 21st century, including the watersheds of the Ashuelot, Oyster, Pemigewasset, and Souhegan Rivers. Simulations show that on average, relative to current conditions, streamflow is likely to increase and base flow is likely to decrease, although this change is highly variable by geographic location and season. Streamflow variability will likely increase, with more high streamflows and more low streamflows. The largest increases in streamflow are in the winter, with small decreases in summer. Change in base flow varies across the State with the largest change in the northern Pemigewasset River watershed. Changes in snowfall are consistently decreasing for all watersheds on average, with the largest change also in the Pemigewasset. However, monthly snowfall totals during any given winter could be higher in the future than expected under current conditions. Increasing frequency of floods (the largest seven floods expected to occur in 20 years) could be more significant than the size of the floods, except in the northern high altitude watersheds. In other words, the projections indicate a pattern of multiple floods that might not breach the riverbanks, yet the increased frequency could put additional strain on the existing river banks, infrastructure, and nearby human settlements. There is also likely to be an increase in high flows during the winter and spring months, which could result in more uncertainty in planning for the design, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure, including roads and utilities. Similarly, it is expected that, on average, there will be less base flow available and a wider range of seasonal fluctuation in base flow than experienced historically. These issues could necessitate more attention to planning and management of the resource. Based on past experience, the most important effects of climate change could be less certain planning options and a greater need for planning that accounts for the effects of larger streamflows than are currently available. The effects of hydrologic change on human health and well-being could be most readily apparent with respect to changes in streamflow and the subsequent increase in the frequency of minor flooding and the frequency of summer and fall low streamflows. These changes could require the development of plans to adapt, protect, and upgrade infrastructure, such as bridges, culverts, roads, and other structures. The precipitation runoff modeling shows that rivers and watersheds in New Hampshire will likely change in response to climate change, and that this response varies with season and latitude. Although four representative areas were simulated in this study, additional models could be used to predict the response over the entire State.

New Hampshire↗
USGS2011

Upper Colorado River Basin Climate Effects Network

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Climate Effects Network (CEN) is a science team established to provide information to assist land managers in future decision making processes by providing a better understanding of how future climate change, land use, invasive species, altered fire cycles, human systems, and the interactions among these factors will affect ecosystems and the services they provide to human communities. The goals of this group are to (1) identify science needs and provide tools to assist land managers in addressing these needs, (2) provide a Web site where users can access information pertinent to this region, and (3) provide managers technical assistance when needed. Answers to the team's working science questions are intended to address how interactions among climate change, land use, and management practices may affect key aspects of water availability, ecosystem changes, and societal needs within the UCRB.

Fact Sheet↗