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Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2017

Unexpected stasis in a changing world: Lake nutrient and chlorophyll trends since 1990

The United States (U.S.) has faced major environmental changes in recent decades, including agricultural intensification and urban expansion, as well as changes in atmospheric deposition and climate—all of which may influence eutrophication of freshwaters. However, it is unclear whether or how water quality in lakes across diverse ecological settings has responded to environmental change. We quantified water quality trends in 2913 lakes using nutrient and chlorophyll (Chl) observations from the Lake Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of the Northeast U.S. (LAGOS-NE), a collection of preexisting lake data mostly from state agencies. LAGOS-NE was used to quantify whether lake water quality has changed from 1990 to 2013, and whether lake-specific or regional geophysical factors were related to the observed changes. We modeled change through time using hierarchical linear models for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), stoichiometry (TN:TP), and Chl. Both the slopes (percent change per year) and intercepts (value in 1990) were allowed to vary by lake and region. Across all lakes, TN declined at a rate of 1.1% year −1 , while TP, TN:TP, and Chl did not change. A minority (7%–16%) of individual lakes had changing nutrients, stoichiometry, or Chl. Of those lakes that changed, we found differences in the geospatial variables that were most related to the observed change in the response variables. For example, TN and TN:TP trends were related to region-level drivers associated with atmospheric deposition of N; TP trends were related to both lake and region-level drivers associated with climate and land use; and Chl trends were found in regions with high air temperature at the beginning of the study period. We conclude that despite large environmental change and management efforts over recent decades, water quality of lakes in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. has not overwhelmingly degraded or improved.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2018

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures, dry soil, and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km 2 of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.

Great Basin↗
USGS2020

The pervasive and multifaceted influence of biocrusts on water in the world’s drylands

The capture and use of water are critically important in drylands, which collectively constitute Earth's largest biome. Drylands will likely experience lower and more unreliable rainfall as climatic conditions change over the next century. Dryland soils support a rich community of microphytic organisms (biocrusts), which are critically important because they regulate the delivery and retention of water. Yet despite their hydrological significance, a global synthesis of their effects on hydrology is lacking. We synthesized 2,997 observations from 109 publications to explore how biocrusts affected five hydrological processes (times to ponding and runoff, early [sorptivity] and final [infiltration] stages of water flow into soil, and the rate or volume of runoff) and two hydrological outcomes (moisture storage, sediment production). We found that increasing biocrust cover reduced the time for water to pond on the surface (−40%) and commence runoff (−33%), and reduced infiltration (−34%) and sediment production (−68%). Greater biocrust cover had no significant effect on sorptivity or runoff rate/amount, but increased moisture storage (+14%). Infiltration declined most (−56%) at fine scales, and moisture storage was greatest (+36%) at large scales. Effects of biocrust type (cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, mixed), soil texture (sand, loam, clay), and climatic zone (arid, semiarid, dry subhumid) were nuanced. Our synthesis provides novel insights into the magnitude, processes, and contexts of biocrust effects in drylands. This information is critical to improve our capacity to manage dwindling dryland water supplies as Earth becomes hotter and drier.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2020

Climate- versus geographic-dependent patterns in the spatial distribution ofmacroinvertebrate assemblages in New World depressional wetlands

Analyses of biota at lower latitudes may presage impacts of climate change on biota at higher latitudes. Macroinvertebrate assemblages in depressional wetlands may be especially sensitive to climate change because weather‐related precipitation and evapotranspiration are dominant ecological controls on habitats, and organisms of depressional wetlands are temperature‐sensitive ectotherms. We aimed to better understand how wetland macroinvertebrate assemblages were structured according to geography and climate. To do so, we contrasted aquatic‐macroinvertebrate assemblage structure (family level) between subtropical and temperate depressional wetlands of North and South America using presence–absence data from 264 of these habitats across the continents and more‐detailed relative‐abundance data from 56 depressional wetlands from four case‐study locations (North Dakota and Georgia in North America; southern Brazil and Argentinian Patagonia in South America). Both data sets roughly partitioned wetland numbers equally between the two climatic zones and between the continents. We used ordination methods (PCA and NMDS) and tests of multivariate dispersion (PERMDISP) to assess the distribution and the homogeneity in variation in the composition of macroinvertebrate assemblages across climates and continents, respectively. We found that macroinvertebrate assemblage structures in the subtropical depressional wetlands of North and South America were similar to each other (at the family level), while assemblages in the North and South American temperate wetlands were unique from the subtropics, and from each other. Tests of homogeneity of multivariate dispersion indicated that family‐level assemblage structures were more homogeneous in wetlands from the subtropical than the temperate zones. Our study suggests that ongoing climate change may result in the homogenization of macroinvertebrate assemblage structures in temperate zones of North and South America, with those assemblages becoming enveloped by assemblages from the subtropics. Biotic homogenization, more typically associated with other kinds of anthropogenic factors, may also be affected by climate change.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring

Aim: To develop a novel global spatial framework for the integration and analysis of ecological and environmental data. Location: The global land surface excluding Antarctica. Methods: A broad set of climate-related variables were considered for inclusion in a quantitative model, which partitions geographic space into bioclimate regions. Statistical screening produced a subset of relevant bioclimate variables, which were further compacted into fewer independent dimensions using principal components analysis (PCA). An ISODATA clustering routine was then used to classify the principal components into relatively homogeneous environmental strata. The strata were aggregated into global environmental zones based on the attribute distances between strata to provide structure and support a consistent nomenclature. Results: The global environmental stratification (GEnS) consists of 125 strata, which have been aggregated into 18 global environmental zones. The stratification has a 30 arcsec resolution (equivalent to 0.86 km2 at the equator). Aggregations of the strata were compared with nine existing global, continental and national bioclimate and ecosystem classifications using the Kappa statistic. Values range between 0.54 and 0.72, indicating good agreement in bioclimate and ecosystem patterns between existing maps and the GEnS. Main conclusions: The GEnS provides a robust spatial analytical framework for the aggregation of local observations, identification of gaps in current monitoring efforts and systematic design of complementary and new monitoring and research. The dataset is available for non-commercial use through the GEO portal (http://www.geoportal.org).

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗
USGS2012

Colonizing the world in spite of reduced MHC variation

Reduced immune gene diversity is thought to negatively affect the capacity of organisms to adapt to pathogen challenges, which represent a major force in natural selection. Genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) are the most widely invoked adaptive loci in conservation biology, and have become the most popular genetic markers to investigate pathogen-host interactions in vertebrates. Although MHC genes are the most polymorphic genes described in the vertebrate genome, the extent to which MHC diversity determines the long-term persistence of populations is, unclear and often debated, as recent studies have documented the occurrence of natural populations thriving even after a depletion of MHC diversity caused by genetic drift. Here, we show that some phylogenetically related species belonging to the Falco genus (Aves: Falconidae) present a dramatically low MHC variability that has not precluded, nevertheless, the successful colonization of almost all existing regions and habitats worldwide. We found evidence for two remarkably different patterns of MHC variation within the genus. While kestrels show a high MHC variation according to the general theory, falcons exhibit an ancestrally low intra- and inter-specific MHC allelic diversity. We provide compelling evidence that this pattern is not caused by the degeneration of functional genes into pseudogenes, the inadvertent analyses of paralogous MHC genes, or the devastating action of genetic drift. Instead, our results strongly support the idea of an evolutionary transition driven and maintained by natural selection from primarily highly variable towards low polymorphic, but functional and expressed, MHC genes with species-specific pathogen-recognition capabilities.

Journal of Evolutionary Biology↗
USGS2009

World petroleum resource estimates and production forecasts: Implications for government policy

Resource estimates alone will not give advance warning of encroaching production difficulties. An analysis of the general stages in the evolution of petroleum production and discovery and of industry statistics provides an estimate of when the stage characterised by increasing production in the market economy countries outside the United States and Canada will end. The analysis indicates that the year of maximum production will be in the 1990s. Economic growth aggravates the difficulties accompanying the production decline by advancing the date of peak production and by increasing the adjustments that must be made as oil production declines.

Natural Resources Forum↗
USGS2017

Contrasting latitudinal patterns of life-history divergence in two genera of new world thrushes (Turdinae)

Several long-standing hypotheses have been proposed to explain latitudinal patterns of life-history strategies. Here, we test predictions of four such hypotheses (seasonality, food limitation, nest predation and adult survival probability) by examining life-history traits and age-specific mortality rates of several species of thrushes (Turdinae) based on field studies at temperate and tropical sites and data gathered from the literature. Thrushes in the genus Catharus showed the typical pattern of slower life-history strategies in the tropics while co-occuring Turdus thrushes differed much less across latitudes. Seasonality is a broadly accepted hypothesis for latitudinal patterns, but the lack of concordance in latitudinal patterns between co-existing genera that experience the same seasonal patterns suggests seasonality cannot fully explain latitudinal trait variation in thrushes. Nest-predation also could not explain patterns based on our field data and literature data for these two genera. Total feeding rates were similar, and per-nestling feeding rates were higher at tropical latitudes in both genera, suggesting food limitation does not explain trait differences in thrushes. Latitudinal patterns of life histories in these two genera were closely associated with adult survival probability. Thus, our data suggest that environmental influences on adult survival probability may play a particularly strong role in shaping latitudinal patterns of life-history traits.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Macroecological patterns of sexual size dimorphism in turtles of the world

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) is a well-documented phenomenon in both plants and animals; however, the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that drive and maintain SSD patterns across geographic space at regional and global scales are understudied, especially for reptiles. Our goal was to examine geographic variation of turtle SSD and to explore ecological and environmental correlates using phylogenetic comparative methods. We use published body size data on 135 species from nine turtle families to examine how geographic patterns and the evolution of SSD are influenced by habitat specialization, climate (annual mean temperature and annual precipitation) and climate variability, latitude, or a combination of these predictor variables. We found that geographic variation, magnitude and direction of turtle SSD are best explained by habitat association, annual temperature variance and annual precipitation. Use of semi-aquatic and terrestrial habitats was associated with male-biased SSD, whereas use of aquatic habitat was associated with female-biased SSD. Our results also suggest that greater temperature variability is associated with female-biased SSD. In contrast, wetter climates are associated with male-biased SSD compared with arid climates that are associated with female-biased SSD. We also show support for a global latitudinal trend in SSD, with females being larger than males towards the poles, especially in the families Emydidae and Geoemydidae. Estimates of phylogenetic signal for both SSD and habitat type indicate that closely related species occupy similar habitats and exhibit similar direction and magnitude of SSD. These global patterns of SSD may arise from sex-specific reproductive behaviour, fecundity and sex-specific responses to environmental factors that differ among habitats and vary systematically across latitude. Thus, this study adds to our current understanding that while SSD can vary dramatically across and within turtle species under phylogenetic constraints, it may be driven, maintained and exaggerated by habitat type, climate and geographic location.

Journal of Evolutionary Biology↗
USGS2025

The American black bear (Ursus americanus) as an apex predator: Investigating the ecological role of the world’s most abundant large carnivore

Introduction American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) have been documented to have top-down effects, both consumptive (through predation) and nonconsumptive (through fear effects). However, their behavioural and dietary adaptability has led to uncertainty about the conditions under which these may occur. Objectives We aimed to (1) investigate when, where, and how often black bears influence lower trophic levels, and (2) critically assess the experimental design of such studies to determine trends and biases. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search and used linear mixed-effects models to assess the relationships among prey age class, the presence of other large carnivores, and the percentage of ungulate mortality due to black bears. We also summarised the measured effects of black bears on other carnivores and the results of any experimental studies. Results We found a strong negative relationship between puma presence and the percentage of ungulate mortality due to black bears, but only in areas with at least one other large carnivore (e.g., wolves). Among 16 studies of black bears' impacts on other carnivores, most documented negative behavioural effects. While only 5% of studies had strong experimental design, bear removal consistently increased juvenile ungulate survival. Discussion and Synthesis Our findings highlight black bears' strong top-down effects, resembling or exceeding those of other large carnivores. These effects were greatest when no other large carnivores were present, but as highly effective kleptoparasites, black bears can alter the feeding habits of other large carnivores. Thus, we argue that ‘apex’ is a conditional state, not a species-wide status.

Mammal Review↗
USGS2011

A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests

The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year –1 ) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year –1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year –1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year –1 . Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year –1 , with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

Science↗
USGS2020

Pervasive shifts in forest dynamics in a changing world

Forest dynamics arise from the interplay of environmental drivers and disturbances with the demographic processes of recruitment, growth, and mortality, subsequently driving biomass and species composition. However, forest disturbances and subsequent recovery are shifting with global changes in climate and land use, altering these dynamics. Changes in environmental drivers, land use, and disturbance regimes are forcing forests toward younger, shorter stands. Rising carbon dioxide, acclimation, adaptation, and migration can influence these impacts. Recent developments in Earth system models support increasingly realistic simulations of vegetation dynamics. In parallel, emerging remote sensing datasets promise qualitatively new and more abundant data on the underlying processes and consequences for vegetation structure. When combined, these advances hold promise for improving the scientific understanding of changes in vegetation demographics and disturbances.

Science↗