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USGS2002

Land use change and effects on water quality and ecosystem health in the Lake Tahoe basin, Nevada and California: year-1 progress

As part of the requirements for the Geographic Research and Applications Prospectus grants, this Open-File Report is the second of two that resulted from the first year of the project. The first Open-File Report (OFR 01-418) introduced the project, reviewed the existing body of literature, and outlined the research approach. This document will present an update of the research approach and offer some preliminary results from multiple efforts, specifically, the production of historical digital orthophoto quadrangles, the development of the land use/land cover (LULC) classification system, the development of a temporal transportation layer, the classification of anthropogenic cover types from the IKONOS imagery, a preliminary evaluation of landscape ecology metrics (quantification of spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem structure and function with appropriate indices) and their utility in comparing two LULC systems, and a new initiative in community-based science and facilitation.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1976

Use of USGS earth-science products by county planning agencies in the San Francisco Bay region, California

An inventory of the use of USGS products in selected planning studies, plans, ordinances, and other planning activities was made for eight counties in the San Francisco Bay region--a region of almost five million people. This inventory was designed to determine and document the use of the 87 earth-science information products prepared as a part of the San Francisco Bay Region Environment and Resources Planning Study (SFBRS). The inventory showed that: (1) all eight counties had planning staffs who were very familiar with SFBRS products and had made frequent use of such products; (2) all eight counties had prepared planning documents which cite SFBRS products; (3) the types of planning applications most often indicated were: geologic hazards studies, seismic safety and public safety plan elements, general reference, and the preparation and review of environmental impact reports and statements; (4) over 90 percent of the 87 SFBRS products were used at least once, and nine of the products were used over 30 times each for various county planning activities; and (5) at least 85 other USGS products were also used for various county planning activities. After the inventory, selected county officials, employees, and consultants were interviewed and asked--among other things--to indicate any problems in the use of the SFBRS products, to suggest improvements, and to identify any needed or desired earth-science information. The responses showed that: (1) the scales commonly used for working maps were 1:62,500 or larger and for plan implementation were 1:24,000 or larger; (2) only one county had a geologist on its planning staff, although six others had the benefit of geotechnical services from private consulting firms, county engineering staffs, or the State Division of Mines and Geology; (3) seven of the eight counties expressed some problems in using the products, primarily because of their small scale or lack of detail; (4) all eight counties expected to continue to use the products and expressed a need or desire for additional earth-science, engineering, or other information; (5) all eight counties suggested specific improvements to future products, primarily larger scale or more detail and fewer technical or more interpretive products; and (6) all eight counties received educational, advisory, and review services from USGS personnel. Seventeen selected examples of the application of SFBRS products to various county planning activities are discussed and illustrated. These examples include four planning studies, seven plans, and two ordinances. From the inventory and responses to the interviews, it is concluded that the counties in the Bay region are very familiar with, have made frequent use of, and will continue to use SFBRS products for a wide range of county planning activities. Suggestions to ensure more effective use of earth-science information in the future include: (1) monitoring emerging critical issues and analyzing new state and federal laws and regulations so as to better anticipate and respond to county earth-science information needs; (2) creating a users advisory committee to help identify critical issues and user needs; (3) providing engineering interpretations and land- and water-use capability ratings to make earth-science information more readily usable; (4) giving priority to areas impacted by development so as to husband staff resources; (5) providing earth-science information at the larger scale and greater detail commonly used and needed by counties; (6) releasing earth-science information earlier and according to a formal distribution pattern; and (7) providing educational, advisory, and review services in connection with any earth-science information designed for planners and decisionmakers.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

GSFLOW-GRASS v1.0.0: GIS-enabled hydrologic modeling of coupled groundwater–surface-water systems

The importance of water moving between the atmosphere and aquifers has led to efforts to develop and maintain coupled models of surface water and groundwater. However, developing inputs to these models is usually time-consuming and requires extensive knowledge of software engineering, often prohibiting their use by many researchers and water managers, thus reducing these models' potential to promote science-driven decision-making in an era of global change and increasing water resource stress. In response to this need, we have developed GSFLOW–GRASS, a bundled set of open-source tools that develops inputs for, executes, and graphically displays the results of GSFLOW, the U.S. Geological Survey's coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model. In order to create a robust tool that can be widely implemented over diverse hydro(geo)logic settings, we built a series of GRASS GIS extensions that automatically discretizes a topological surface-water flow network that is linked with an underlying gridded groundwater domain. As inputs, GSFLOW–GRASS requires at a minimum a digital elevation model, a precipitation and temperature record, and estimates of channel parameters and hydraulic conductivity. We demonstrate the broad applicability of the toolbox by successfully testing it in environments with varying degrees of drainage integration, landscape relief, and grid resolution, as well as the presence of irregular coastal boundaries. These examples also show how GSFLOW–GRASS can be implemented to examine the role of groundwater–surface-water interactions in a diverse range of water resource and land management applications.

Geoscientific Model Development↗

USGS2020

Seasonal drivers of chemical and hydrological patterns in roadside infiltration-based green infrastructure

Infiltration-based green infrastructure has become a popular means of reducing stormwater hazards in urban areas. However, the long-term effects of green infrastructure on the geochemistry of roadside environments are poorly defined, particularly given the considerable roadside legacy metal contamination from historic industrial activity and vehicle emissions (e.g., Pb). Most current research on green infrastructure geochemistry is restricted to time periods of less than a year or limited sets of chemical species. This further limits our understanding of systems that evolve over time and are subject to seasonal variability. Between 2016 and 2018, two infiltration trenches in Pittsburgh, PA, were monitored to determine infiltration rates and dissolved nutrient and metal content. The trench water was analyzed to characterize seasonal patterns in both trench function and chemistry. Shifting patterns in infiltration rate and geochemical activity show trends corresponding with seasonal changes. Trench function is dependent on the local water table, with the highest infiltration rates occurring when evapotranspiration is active and groundwater elevation is low. Two seasonal chemical patterns were identified. The first is driven by road salt application in the winter and interaction of the salt pulse increase Pb and Cu concentrations. The second is driven by the formation of summer reducing environments that increase dissolved Fe and Mn. These findings suggest that chemical and hydrological activity in infiltration-based green infrastructure varies seasonally and may remobilize legacy contamination.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2013

The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include: assessment of model functionality, brief descriptions of the 7 basic output tables, assessment of the rate of change in land-use allocation pools over time, locations and amounts of the spatially explicit probabilities of land-use transitions by real estate commodity, and analysis of the state change from today’s existing land cover to potential land uses in the future. Assumptions and limitations of the model are presented. This report concludes with suggested next steps to support the continued utility of the LUSM and additional research avenues.

Nevada↗

USGS2016

Organizing environmental flow frameworks to meet hydropower mitigation needs

The global recognition of the importance of natural flow regimes to sustain the ecological integrity of river systems has led to increased societal pressure on the hydropower industry to change plant operations to improve downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, a complete reinstatement of natural flow regimes is often unrealistic when balancing water needs for ecosystems, energy production, and other human uses. Thus, stakeholders must identify a prioritized subset of flow prescriptions that meet ecological objectives in light of realistic constraints. Yet, isolating aspects of flow regimes to restore downstream of hydropower facilities is among the greatest challenges of environmental flow science due, in part, to the sheer volume of available environmental flow tools in conjunction with complex negotiation-based regulatory procedures. Herein, we propose an organizational framework that structures information and existing flow paradigms into a staged process that assists stakeholders in implementing environmental flows for hydropower facilities. The framework identifies areas where regulations fall short of the needed scientific process, and provide suggestions for stakeholders to ameliorate those situations through advanced preparation. We highlight the strengths of existing flow paradigms in their application to hydropower settings and suggest when and where tools are most applicable. Our suggested framework increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the e-flow implementation process by rapidly establishing a knowledge base and decreasing uncertainty so more time can be devoted to filling knowledge gaps. Lastly, the framework provides the structure for a coordinated research agenda to further the science of environmental flows related to hydropower environments.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2009

How useful are the "other" semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs); the mini-unit (15.2 cm long)?

Mini (15.2 cm) semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were used successfully in 169 streams from six metropolitan areas of the US to sequester hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) that are indicative of urbanization. A microscale assay the P450RGS, which responds to compounds that bind to the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR), and the Fluoroscan, a chemical screen for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), were performed on each mini SPMD extract. Results show both tests were sensitive enough to respond in streams with low urbanization and responded exponentially in a predictable way to a gradient of urbanization. Mini SPMDs had sufficient sampling rates to detect HOCs using gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (GC/MS) in streams with low levels of urbanization. The total number of HOCs in streams had a linear response to a gradient of urbanization, where 73 of 140 targeted compounds were detected. A diverse group of compounds was found in urban streams including, PAHs, insecticides, herbicides, musk fragrances, waste water treatment compounds and flame retardants. Pentachloroanisole (PCA), a breakdown product of pentachlorophenol (wood preservative), was the most ubiquitous HOC, and was detected in 71% of streams. An evaluation of mini SPMD performance showed they can detect concentrations in water below toxicity benchmarks for many HOCs with the exception of 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin. A comparison of mini SPMDs with full sized (91.4 cm) SPMDs showed they have several distinct advantages. The most notable advantages are their low cost, small size, and reduced chance of vandalism. The greatest limitation is the inability to detect compounds at low concentrations (pg/L). Mini SPMDs perform quite well in a wide array of environmental settings and applications and should be considered as an option in environmental studies.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Development of a hydraulic model and flood-inundation maps for the Wabash River near the Interstate 64 Bridge near Grayville, Illinois

A two-dimensional hydraulic model and digital flood‑inundation maps were developed for a 30-mile reach of the Wabash River near the Interstate 64 Bridge near Grayville, Illinois. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Flood Inundation Mapping Science web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/ , depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Wabash River at Mount Carmel, Ill (USGS station number 03377500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/ , which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (NWS AHPS site MCRI2). The NWS AHPS forecasts peak stage information that may be used with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. Flood elevations were computed for the Wabash River reach by means of a two-dimensional, finite-volume numerical modeling application for river hydraulics. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using global positioning system measurements of water-surface elevation and the current stage-discharge relation at both USGS streamgage 03377500, Wabash River at Mount Carmel, Ill., and USGS streamgage 03378500, Wabash River at New Harmony, Indiana. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to compute 27 water-surface elevations for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from less than the action stage (9 ft) to the highest stage (35 ft) of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water‑surface elevations were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from light detection and ranging data, to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps, along with information on the internet regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at Mount Carmel, Ill., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS AHPS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Illinois↗

USGS1986

Example evaluation of a permit application for a proposed hazardous-waste landfill in eastern Adams County, Colorado

A project was undertaken by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency to demonstrate methods by which RCRA (Resources Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976) Part B permit applications might be evaluated. The purpose of the project was to prepare a report that would supplement a series of case studies to be made available to permit writers in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Four sites in the United States were chosen for their potential applicability to geologically similar sites. The Adams County, Colorado, site was chosen to be representative of sites in the Upper Cretaceous Pierre Shale. The intent of this report is to provide an example of how available earth-science information might be used in evaluating an application and not to evaluate the acceptability of the site. Because this study is an evaluation of a permit application, the data used are limited to the data supplied in the application and in published reports. Of the five criteria required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to be addressed in the permit application considered in the case study, the application was evaluated to be inadequate in addressing three criteria: (1) Site characterization, (2) ability to monitor the location, and (3) flow paths and 100-foot time of travel. Details of the inadequacies and a description of the information needed to eliminate the inadequacies are included in the report. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Large scale snow water status monitoring: Comparison of different snow water products in the upper Colorado basins

We illustrate the ability to monitor the status of snow water content over large areas by using a spatially distributed snow accumulation and ablation model that uses data from a weather forecast model in the upper Colorado Basin. The model was forced with precipitation fields from the National Weather Service (NWS) Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data-sets; remaining meteorological model input data were from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model output fields. The simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) was compared to SWEs from the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) and SNOwpack TELemetry system (SNOTEL) over a region of the western US that covers parts of the upper Colorado Basin. We also compared the SWE product estimated from the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) to the SNODAS and SNOTEL SWE data-sets. Agreement between the spatial distributions of the simulated SWE with MPE data was high with both SNODAS and SNOTEL. Model-simulated SWE with TRMM precipitation and SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery were not significantly correlated spatially with either SNODAS or the SNOTEL SWE. Average basin-wide SWE simulated with the MPE and the TRMM data were highly correlated with both SNODAS ( r = 0.94 and r = 0.64; d.f. = 14 – d.f. = degrees of freedom) and SNOTEL ( r = 0.93 and r = 0.68; d.f. = 14). The SWE estimated from the passive microwave imagery was significantly correlated with the SNODAS SWE ( r = 0.55, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05) but was not significantly correlated with the SNOTEL-reported SWE values ( r = 0.45, d.f. = 9, p = 0.05).The results indicate the applicability of the snow energy balance model for monitoring snow water content at regional scales when coupled with meteorological data of acceptable quality. The two snow water contents from the microwave imagery (SMMR and SSM/I) and the Utah Energy Balance forced with the TRMM precipitation data were found to be unreliable sources for mapping SWE in the study area; both data sets lacked discernible variability of snow water content between sites as seen in the SNOTEL and SNODAS SWE data. This study will contribute to better understanding the adequacy of data from weather forecast models, TRMM, and microwave imagery for monitoring status of the snow water content.

Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2015

Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O 2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia↗

USGS2015

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2014 annual report

This is the seventh report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual activities conducted by the USGS for addressing specific management needs identified by WLCI partners. In FY2014, there were 26 projects, including a new one that was completed, two others that were also completed, and several that entered new phases or directions. The 26 projects fall into several categories: (1) synthesizing and analyzing existing data to identify current conditions on the landscape and using the data to develop models for projecting past and future landscape conditions; (2) monitoring indicators of ecosystem conditions and the effectiveness of on-the-ground habitat projects; (3) conducting research to elucidate the mechanisms underlying wildlife and habitat responses to changing land uses; (4) managing and making accessible the large number of databases, maps, and other products being developed; and (5) coordinating efforts among WLCI partners, helping them use USGS-developed decision-support tools, and integrating WLCI outcomes with future habitat enhancement and research projects. The new (completed) project was the development and publication of a public outreach piece for visitors of Fossil Butte National Monument. The final product was a USGS Fact Sheet that capitalized on previously collected elk-monitoring data to interpret the ecology of the Monument’s elk population and the importance of the Monument’s habitats to this highly visible wildlife species. One of the completed projects entailed developing and evaluating a synthetic approach to high-resolution satellite imagery for use in effectiveness monitoring, which culminated in a journal article. The other completed project was a coalescing of two similar tasks under data and information management that pertain to Web application development and the development of outreach and graphic products into a single integrated project that focuses on developing and maintaining/upgrading Web applications and other tools for visualizing, mapping, and using geospatial data. Major accomplishments for FY2014 included several publications, including Part B of an energy resources map that (with Part A) depicts coal, wind, oil, gas, oil shale, uranium, and solar energy production in the WLCI region. Two published works associated with sage-grouse included a Wildlife Monograph on prioritizing species’ habitats across large landscapes, multiple seasons, and novel areas (using sage-grouse in Wyoming as an example), and a USGS Data Series report that includes both the data used in the habitat-prioritization models and the habitat prioritization models developed for sage-grouse. Our Science Team also published a framework for conducting large, collaborative projects that rely on geospatial data, and a paper that describes the efficacy of fusing satellite data collected at various resolutions for measuring and monitoring vegetation changes. These products are all invaluable tools for maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of managing species of concern, conducting future landscape-scale assessments, and monitoring status and trends of landscape conditions. Other highlights of FY2014 included a renewed effort to gather and analyze wildlife and habitat status and trend data for the WLCI Interagency Monitoring Database (IAMD) to assess long-term trends and cumulative effects associated with land-use and climate changes. Water-monitoring efforts included drilling four new groundwater-monitoring wells in the Green and New Fork River basins near the proposed Normally Pressured Lance Formation energy development, and continued data collection at established water-monitoring sites. Three additional wells were sampled as part of the Wyoming Groundwater Monitoring Network, bringing the total to 19 Network wells sampled in the WLCI region since 2010. Combined, these water-monitoring efforts can help to identify potential changes in water quality or levels that may result from land-use changes. Major terrestrial monitoring accomplishments included processing satellite imagery from 1985−2010 to develop a historical perspective of long-term vegetation changes, which can serve as a basis for monitoring current and future trends in sagebrush steppe. Such data are crucial tools for agencies tasked with sage-grouse management and conservation. The USGS WLCI Science Team also continued monitoring and testing methods for evaluating WLCI habitat treatments designed to promote aspen regeneration and enhance sage-grouse habitat, and to assess how those treatments influence invasive species distributions and ungulate herbivory. Highlights included analyzing field data collected to elucidate the relationships between sage-grouse habitat use and the proximity of energy infrastructure, and using new instruments to measure productivity responses of aspen woodlands to various factors. Numerous FY2014 accomplishments specifically addressed agency needs to manage and conserve Wyoming’s wildlife species of concern. A pygmy rabbit habitat model and Wyoming distribution map were completed to identify factors associated with rabbit habitat occupancy. Previous work on sage-grouse population dynamics was expanded to better understand the factors that drive long-term viability of sage-grouse populations and to develop a tool that helps to identify key factors limiting sage-grouse persistence in Wyoming. Field work and data analyses continued for elucidating the relationships between sagebrush songbird abundance and productivity, the intensity of energy development, and community dynamics of nest predators. For the mule deer study, mixed mountain shrublands important to migrating and wintering mule deer were mapped and delivered to WLCI partners. Additionally, the relationships between energy development and crucial winter habitat for mule deer were evaluated, and a new phase of work was implemented to better understand relationships between plant phenology and mule deer migration movements. Finally, initial analyses of data collected to evaluate fish-community composition in relation to habitat quality indicate that water quality, as measured by concentrations of hydrocarbons, water temperature, and others parameters, has been diminished in subwatersheds with higher levels of energy development. Overall, the outcomes and products of these wildlife studies contribute significantly to the information and tools needed for addressing effects of land-use changes on Wyoming’s species of concern. Finally, capabilities of the WLCI Web site and the USGS ScienceBase infrastructure were maintained and upgraded to help ensure access to and efficient use of all the WLCI data, products, assessment tools, and outreach materials that have been developed. Of particular note is the completion of three Web applications developed for mapping (1) the 1900−2008 progression of oil and gas development;(2) the predicted distributions of Wyoming’s Species of Greatest Conservation Need; and (3) the locations of coal and wind energy production, sage-grouse distribution and core management areas, and alternative routes for transmission lines within the WLCI region. Collectively, these applications tools provide WLCI planners and managers with powerful tools for better understanding the distributions of wildlife species and potential alternatives for energy development.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events. In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae. During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c . 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae. Synthesis and applications . Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated with widespread mortality events and estimating future risk to waterbird populations.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2025

Interrogating process deficiencies in large-scale hydrologic models with interpretable machine learning

Large-scale hydrologic models are increasingly being developed for operational use in the forecasting and planning of water resources. However, the predictive strength of such models depends on how well they resolve various functions of catchment hydrology, which are influenced by gradients in climate, topography, soils, and land use. Most assessments of hydrologic model uncertainty have been limited to traditional statistical methods. Here, we present a proof-of-concept approach that uses interpretable machine learning techniques to provide post hoc assessment of model sensitivity and process deficiency in hydrologic models. We train a random forest model to predict the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of National Water Model (NWM) and National Hydrologic Model (NHM) streamflow predictions for 4383 stream gauges in the conterminous United States. Thereafter, we explain the local and global controls that 48 catchment attributes exert on KGE prediction using interpretable Shapley values. Overall, we find that soil water content is the most impactful feature controlling successful model performance, suggesting that soil water storage is difficult for hydrologic models to resolve, particularly for arid locations. We identify nonlinear thresholds beyond which predictive performance decreases for NWM and NHM. For example, soil water content less than 210 mm, precipitation less than 900 mm yr −1 , road density greater than 5 km km −2 , and lake area percent greater than 10 % contributed to lower KGE values. These results suggest that improvements in how these influential processes are represented could result in the largest increases in NWM and NHM predictive performance. This study demonstrates the utility of interrogating process-based models using data-driven techniques, which has broad applicability and potential for improving the next generation of large-scale hydrologic models.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2000

Water quality modeling in the systems impact assessment model for the Klamath River basin - Keno, Oregon to Seiad Valley, California

This report describes the water quality model developed for the Klamath River System Impact Assessment Model (SIAM). The Klamath River SIAM is a decision support system developed by the authors and other US Geological Survey (USGS), Midcontinent Ecological Science Center staff to study the effects of basin-wide water management decisions on anadromous fish in the Klamath River. The Army Corps of Engineersa?? HEC5Q water quality modeling software was used to simulate water temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity in 100 miles of the Klamath River Basin in Oregon and California. The water quality model simulated three reservoirs and the mainstem Klamath River influenced by the Shasta and Scott River tributaries. Model development, calibration and two validation exercises are described as well as the integration of the water quality model into the SIAM decision support system software. Within SIAM, data are exchanged between the water quantity model (MODSIM), the water quality model (HEC5Q), the salmon population model (SALMOD) and methods for evaluating ecosystem health. The overall predictive ability of the water quality model is described in the context of calibration and validation error statistics. Applications of SIAM and the water quality model are described.

California, Oregon↗

USGS2021

DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) level 1 product evaluation using RadCalNet measurements

The DLR Earth Sensing Imaging Spectrometer (DESIS) is the first hyperspectral imaging spectrometer installed in the Multi-User System for Earth Sensing (MUSES) on the International Space Station (ISS) for acquiring routine science grade images from orbit. It was launched on 29 June 2018 and integrated into MUSES. DESIS measures energy in the spectral range of 400 to 1000 nm with high spatial and spectral resolution: 30 m and 2.55 nm, respectively. DESIS data should be sufficiently quantitative and accurate to use it for different applications and research. This work performs a radiometric evaluation of DESIS Level 1 product (Top of Atmosphere (TOA) reflectance) by comparing it with coincident Radiometric Calibration Network (RadCalNet) measurements at Railroad Valley Playa (RVUS), Gobabeb (GONA), and La Crau (LCFR). RVUS, GONA, and LCFR offer 4, 15, and 5 coincident datasets between DESIS and RadCalNet measurements, respectively. The results show an agreement between DESIS and RadCalNet TOA reflectance within ~5% for most spectral regions. However, there is an additional ~5% disagreement across the wavelengths affected by water vapor absorption and atmospheric scattering. Among the three RadCalNet sites, RVUS and GONA show a similar measurement disagreement with DESIS of ~5%, while LCFR differs by ~10%. Agreement between DESIS and RadCalNet measurements is variable across all three sites, likely due to surface type differences. DESIS and RadCalNet agreement show a precision of ~2.5%, 4%, and 7% at RVUS, GONA, and LCFR, respectively. RVUS and GONA, which have a similar surface type, sand, have a similar level of radiometric accuracy and precision, whereas LCFR, which consists of sparse vegetation, has lower accuracy and precision. The observed precision of DESIS Level 1 products from all the sites, especially LCFR, can be improved with a better Bidirectional Reflection Distribution Function (BRDF) characterization of the RadCalNet sites.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2013

Application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States

A hydrologic model of the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (ACFB) has been developed as part of a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center effort to provide integrated science that helps resource managers understand the effect of climate change on a range of ecosystem responses. The hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. The ACFB PRMS model simulates streamflow throughout the approximately 50,700 square-kilometer basin on a daily time step for the period 1950–99 using gridded climate forcings of air temperature and precipitation, and parameters derived from spatial data layers of altitude, land cover, soils, surficial geology, depression storage (small water bodies), and data from 56 USGS streamgages. Measured streamflow data from 35 of the 56 USGS streamgages were used to calibrate and evaluate simulated basin streamflow; the remaining gage locations were used for model delineation only. The model matched measured daily streamflow at 31 of the 35 calibration gages with Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Index (NS) greater than 0.6. Streamflow data for some calibration gages were augmented for regulation and water use effects to represent more natural flow volumes. Time-static parameters describing land cover limited the ability of the simulation to match historical runoff in the more developed subbasins. Overall, the PRMS simulation of the ACFB provides a good representation of basin hydrology on annual and monthly time steps. Calibration subbasins were analyzed by separating the 35 subbasins into five classes based on physiography, land use, and stream type (tributary or mainstem). The lowest NS values were rarely below 0.6, whereas the median NS for all five classes was within 0.74 to 0.96 for annual mean streamflow, 0.89 to 0.98 for mean monthly streamflow, and 0.82 to 0.98 for monthly mean streamflow. The median bias for all five classes was within –4.3 to 0.8 percent for annual mean streamflow, –6.3 to 0.5 percent for mean monthly streamflow, and –9.3 to 1.3 percent for monthly mean streamflow. The NS results combined with the percent bias results indicated a good to very good streamflow volume simulation for all subbasins. This simulation of the ACFB provides a foundation for future modeling and interpretive studies. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS can be used to inform other types of simulations; water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations are three examples. In addition, possible future hydrologic conditions could be studied using this model in combination with land cover projections and downscaled general circulation model results.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2006

Monitoring changes in the Platte River riparian corridor with serial LiDAR surveys

The Platte River in central Nebraska is a wide, sand-bedded river that provides habitat for migratory water birds along the North American flyway. The central Platte River functions as critical habitat for the endangered whooping crane (Grus americana) and also is an important habitat for the endangered least tern (Sterna antillarum) and the threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus). Upstream water-resource development over the last century has decreased the water and sediment supplied to the central Platte River. This has resulted in vegetation encroachment and narrowing of Platte River channels. The National Academy of Sciences' National Research Council, in a recent review of these critical habitat designations, concluded that the current morphology of Platte River channels is limiting the recovery of the endangered and threatened avian species. Habitat-enhancement efforts along the Platte River currently (2006) are focused on the clearing of vegetation from in-channel and riparian areas, whereas future plans propose the release of water from upstream dams as a means to prevent vegetation from encroaching on the active river channel. For this reason, monitoring the physical response of the river channel to these management treatments is an important component of a proposed habitat recovery program. Understanding the effects of management strategies on Platte River riparian habitat also is a key objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's Platte River Priority Ecosystem Program (http://mcmcweb.er.usgs.gov/platte/). This fact sheet describes applications of LiDAR to monitor changes in the Platte River riparian corridor.

Fact Sheet↗