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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS1993

Geohydrology, water quality, and estimation of ground-water recharge in San Francisco, California, 1987-92

The city of San Francisco is considering further development of local groundwater resources as a supplemental source of water for potable or nonpotable use. By the year 2010, further water demand is projected to exceed the delivery capacity of the existing supply system, which is fed by surface-water sources; thus supplies are susceptible to drought conditions and damage to conveyance lines by earthquakes. The primary purpose of this study is to describe local geohydrology and water quality and to estimate groundwater recharge in the area of the city of San Francisco. Seven groundwater basins were identified in San Francisco on the basis of geologic and geophysical data. Basins on the east side of the city are relatively thin and contain a greater percentage of fine-grained sediments than those on the west side. The relatively small capacity of the basins and greater potential for contamination from sewer sources may limit the potential for groundwater development on the east side. Basins on the west side of the city have a relatively large capacity and low density sewer network. Water-level data indicate that the southern part of the largest basin on the west side of the city (Westside basin) probably cannot accommodate additional groundwater development without adversely affecting water levels and water quality in Lake Merced; however, the remainder of the basin, which is largely undeveloped, could be developed further. A hydrologic routing model was developed for estimating groundwater recharge throughout San Francisco. The model takes into account climatic factors, land and water use, irrigation, leakage from underground pipes, rainfall runoff, evapotranspiration, and other factors associated with an urban environment. Results indicate that area recharge rates for water years 1987-88 for the 7 groundwater basins ranged from 0.32 to 0.78 feet per year. Recharge for the Westside basin was estimated at 0.51 feet per year. Average annual groundwater recharge represents the maximum annual long-term yield of the basin. Attainable yield may be less than the volume of groundwater recharge because interception of all discharge from the basin may not be feasible without inducing seawater intrusion or causing other undesirable effects.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2004

Global environmental databases from CEOS agencies

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) is an international organization charged with coordinating international civil spaceborne missions designed to observe and study planet Earth. Comprising 44 space agencies and other national and international organizations, CEOS is recognized as the major international forum for the coordination of Earth observation satellite programs and for the interaction of these programs with users of satellite data worldwide. CEOS was created in 1984 in response to a recommendation from the Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations Working Group on Growth, Technology, and Employment’s Panel of Experts on Satellite Remote Sensing. This group recognized the multidisciplinary nature of satellite Earth observation and the value of coordination across all proposed missions. The CEOS members collect, maintain, apply, and make available data from space missions that encompass the atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanographic fields. Collectively, these members possess petabytes of Earth observation data critical to understanding the Earth environment. Uses include monitoring oil slicks, evaluating human-induced changes to the atmosphere, determining mineral exploration areas, assessing the environmental effects of volcanic eruptions, measuring the growth of urban areas, determining where landscapes have changed because of urban growth trends, improving the efficiency of fishing as a world food stock, monitoring pest infestation, managing crop production, predicting climate and weather, and numerous other applications vital to industry, national infrastructures, and the world as a whole. The vast amount of satellite obtained, environmental data the CEOS members possess represents a fertile resource for researchers worldwide to exploit.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Identifying long term empirical relationships between storm characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge

Shallow aquifers are an important source of water resources and provide base flow to streams; yet actual rates of groundwater recharge are difficult to estimate. While climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, the resulting impact on groundwater recharge remains poorly understood. We quantify empirical relations between precipitation characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge for a wide variety of geographic and land use types across North Carolina. We extract storm duration, magnitude, average rate, and hourly weighted intensity from long-term precipitation records over periods of 12–35 years at 10 locations. Using time series of water table fluctuations from nearby monitoring wells, we estimate relative recharge to precipitation ratios (RPR) to identify statistical trends. Increased RPR correlates with increased storm duration, whereas RPR decreases with increasing magnitude, average rate, and intensity of precipitation. Agricultural and urban areas exhibit the greatest decrease in RPR due to increasing storm magnitude, average rate, and intensity, while naturally vegetated areas exhibit a larger increase in RPR with increased storm duration. Though RPR is generally higher during the winter than the summer, this seasonal effect is magnified in the Appalachian and Piedmont regions. These statistical trends provide valuable insights into the likely consequences of climate and land use change for water resources in subtropical climates. If, as predicted, growing seasons lengthen and the intensity of storms increases with a warming climate, decreased recharge in Appalachia, the Piedmont, and rapidly growing urban areas of the American Southeast could further limit groundwater availability.

North Carolina↗
USGS2012

Holocene aridification of India

Spanning a latitudinal range typical for deserts, the Indian peninsula is fertile instead and sustains over a billion people through monsoonal rains. Despite the strong link between climate and society, our knowledge of the long‐term monsoon variability is incomplete over the Indian subcontinent. Here we reconstruct the Holocene paleoclimate in the core monsoon zone (CMZ) of the Indian peninsula using a sediment core recovered offshore from the mouth of Godavari River. Carbon isotopes of sedimentary leaf waxes provide an integrated and regionally extensive record of the flora in the CMZ and document a gradual increase in aridity‐adapted vegetation from ∼4,000 until 1,700 years ago followed by the persistence of aridity‐adapted plants after that. The oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber detects unprecedented high salinity events in the Bay of Bengal over the last 3,000 years, and especially after 1,700 years ago, which suggest that the CMZ aridification intensified in the late Holocene through a series of sub‐millennial dry episodes. Cultural changes occurred across the Indian subcontinent as the climate became more arid after ∼4,000 years. Sedentary agriculture took hold in the drying central and south India, while the urban Harappan civilization collapsed in the already arid Indus basin. The establishment of a more variable hydroclimate over the last ca. 1,700 years may have led to the rapid proliferation of water‐conservation technology in south India.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

Summary A wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features. We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states. We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years. State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of landscape dynamics.

Methods in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2007

Submarine ground water discharge and fate along the coast of Kaloko-Honokohau National Historical Park, Hawaii Part I: Time-series measurements of currents, waves, salinity and temperature: November 2005 – July 2006

The impending development for the west Hawai‘i coastline adjacent to Kaloko-Honokōhau National Historical Park (KAHO) may potentially alter coastal hydrology and water quality in the marine waters of the park. Water resources are perhaps the most significant natural and cultural resource component in the park, and are critical to the health and well being of six federally listed species. KAHO contains ecosystems of brackish anchialine pools, two 11-acre fishponds, and 596 acres of coral reef habitats, all fed by groundwater originating upslope. The steep gradients on high islands, combined with typically porous substrates and high rainfall levels at upper elevations, make these settings especially vulnerable to shifts in submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and its entrained nutrients and pollutants. Little is known about the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD and its influence on contaminant loading to Hawaiian coastal environments. Recent studies show that groundwater flux through the park is vital to many ecosystem components including anchialine ponds and wetland biota. The function of these ecosystems may be vulnerable to changes in groundwater flow stemming from natural changes (climate and sea level) and land use (groundwater pumping and contamination). Oki and others (1999) showed that increased groundwater withdrawals for urban development since 1978 likely decreased groundwater flux to the coast by 50%. During this same time, the quality of groundwater has been vulnerable to increases in contaminant and nutrient/fertilizer additions associated with industrial, commercial and residential use upslope from KAHO (Oki and others, 1999). High-resolution measurements of waves, currents, water levels, temperature and salinity were collected in the marine portion of the park from November, 2005, through July, 2006, to establish baseline information on the magnitude, rate, frequency, and variability of SGD. These data are intended to help researchers and resource managers better understand the hydrodynamics of the oceanographic environment in the park’s coastal waters as it pertains to the pathway of SGD and associated nutrient and contaminant input to the park’s coral reef ecosystem. Measurements were made of the oceanographic environment (waves, tides, currents, salinity and temperature) using hydrodynamic techniques to characterize and quantify the distribution, input and throughput of freshwater and associated nutrient/contaminant within the near shore environment of KAHO through the emplacement of a series of bottom-mounted instruments deployed in water depths less than 15 m. This study was conducted in support of the National Park Service (NPS) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program’s Coral Reef Project. These measurements support the ongoing studies of the Coral Reef Project to better understand the transport mechanisms of sediment, larvae, nutrients, pollutants and other particles on Pacific coral reefs. Subsequent reports will address the spatial and temporal variability in groundwater input and the associated nutrient flux in the park’s waters.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2023

Nitrogen isotopes indicate vehicle emissions and biomass burning dominate ambient ammonia across Colorado's Front Range urban corridor

Urban ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions contribute to poor local air quality and can be transported to rural landscapes, impacting sensitive ecosystems. The Colorado Front Range urban corridor encompasses the Denver Metropolitan Area, rural farmland/rangeland and montane forest between the city and the Rocky Mountains. Reactive nitrogen emissions from the corridor are partly responsible for increased N deposition to the wildland-urban interface (WUI) in this region. To determine the significance of individual NH 3 sources to WUI ecosystems, we measured the concentration and isotopic composition (δ 15 N–NH 3 ) of ambient NH 3(g) from April to October 2018 across a five-site urban to rural gradient in the corridor. The urban sites had higher NH 3 concentrations and δ 15 N–NH 3 values than the rural/suburban sites. Based on isotope mixing models, NH 3 emission source contributions for all sites were fertilizer (12 ± 5.7%), livestock waste (18 ± 12%), vehicles (37 ± 23%), and biomass burning (34 ± 20%). Vehicle contributions were consistent across all months with an average of 35% and summer months showed a peak in biomass burning contributions (40%). As wildfires are projected to increase due to climate change, we stress a need for constraints on the isotopic signature of NH 3 emitted from wildfires. Vehicle emissions contributed the greatest amount of NH 3 (40%) at the urban sites while rural/suburban sites had higher agricultural contributions (41%). Had 2018 not had an anomalously high wildfire season, 46% and 60% of the NH 3 would have been attributed to vehicle emissions at the WUI site and urban sites, respectively. NH 3 emissions have historically been ascribed to agricultural activities but these findings illustrate the universal significance of vehicle emissions and the potential for sustained wildfire activity to be a primary contributor to NH 3 . Air quality (e.g., particulate matter) and nitrogen deposition reduction plans may benefit by including management practices that address vehicle NH 3 emissions.

Colorado↗
USGS2022

Natural and anthropogenic influences on benthic cyanobacteria in streams of the northeastern United States

Benthic cyanobacteria are widespread in streams and rivers and have the potential to release toxins. In large numbers, these microorganisms and their toxins present a risk to human health. Cyanobacterial abundance in stream biofilms is typically related to single or a limited set of environmental factors, mainly light availability, water temperature, and nutrient concentrations. However, these factors may act synergistically with watershed characteristics and other stressors, such as anthropogenic pollutants, to affect cyanobacteria. We investigated the influence of multiple regional and local variables on the abundance of benthic cyanobacterial genera in streams using all subsets generalized additive modeling. We examined watershed factors (topography, geology, and climate) alongside in-stream factors (geomorphology, hydrology, pH, specific conductance, nutrients, organic contaminants, and dissolved metals) from 76 sites along an urban gradient in the northeast United States. Each genus responded to a distinct combination of environmental variables, demonstrating strong intergeneric variation in environmental selection of realized niches. Four of the 7 potentially toxigenic genera that we modeled were positively influenced by water temperature or nutrients. Nonetheless, watershed characteristics, streamflow, and/or other water quality pollutants were equally or more influential for the potentially toxigenic genera. Additionally, the relationships between cyanobacterial abundance and environmental factors varied in shape and direction across many genera. In particular, with increasing concentrations of herbicides, polychlorinated biphenyls, or metals, the abundance of roughly half of the affected genera decreased, while the others increased. These results likely demonstrate novel toxic effects of the pollutants on cyanobacterial genera in the environment, while indicating that unmeasured biotic interactions may lead to positive responses for other genera. Our results emphasize the need to consider variables beyond those that are most frequently measured or implicated (e.g., water temperature and nutrients) to more fully understand the environmental conditions that influence the distributions and abundance of potentially harmful cyanobacteria.

Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire. New Yor↗
USGS2019

Rapid inundation of the southern Florida coastline despite low relative sea-level rise rates during the late-Holocene

Sediment cores from Florida Bay, Everglades National Park were examined to determine ecosystem response to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) over the Holocene. High-resolution multiproxy analysis from four sites show freshwater wetlands transitioned to mangrove environments 4–3.6 ka, followed by estuarine environments 3.4–2.8 ka, during a period of enhanced climate variability. We calculate a RSLR rate of 0.67 ± 0.1 mm yr −1 between ~4.2–2.8 ka, 4–6 times lower than current rates. Despite low RSLR rates, the rapid mangrove to estuarine transgression was facilitated by a period of prolonged droughts and frequent storms. These findings suggest that with higher and accelerating RSLR today, enhanced climate variability could further hasten the loss of mangrove-lined coastlines, compounded by the reductions in natural flow to the coast caused by water management. Climate variability is nonlinear, and when superimposed on increases in RSLR, can complicate estimated trajectories of coastal inundation for resource management and urban planning.

Florida↗
USGS1994

Historical decline and current status of coho salmon in California

The southernmost populations of coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch occur in California where native coho stocks have declined or disappeared from all streams in which they were historically recorded. Coho salmon previously occurred in as many as 582 streams, from the Smith River near the Oregon border to the San Lorenzo River on the central coast. Information on the recent presence or absence of coho salmon was available for only 248 (43%) of those streams. Of these 248 streams, 54% still contained coho salmon and 46% did not. The farther south a stream is located, the more likely it is to have lost its coho salmon population. We estimate that the total number of adult coho salmon entering California streams in 1987-1991 averaged around 31,000 fish per year, with hatchery populations making up 57% of this total. Thus, about 13,000 nonhatchery coho salmon have been spawning in California streams each year since 1987, an estimate that includes naturalized stocks containing about 9,000 fish of recent hatchery ancestry. There are now probably less than 5,000 native coho salmon (with no known hatchery ancestry) spawning in California each year, many of them in populations of less than 100 individuals. Coho populations today are probably less than 6% of what they were in the 1940s, and there has been at least a 70% decline since the 1960s. There is every reason to believe that California coho populations, including hatchery stocks, will continue to decline. The reasons for the decline of coho salmon in California include: stream alterations brought about by poor land-use practices (especially those related to logging and urbanization) and by the effects of periodic floods and drought, the breakdown of genetic integrity of native stocks, introduced diseases, overharvest, and climatic change. We believe, that ,coho salmon in California qualify for listing as a threatened species under state law, and certain populations may qualify for listing as threatened or endangered under federal law.

California↗
USGS2020

Sediment dynamics and implications for management: State of the science from long‐term research in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, USA

This review aims to synthesize the current knowledge of sediment dynamics using insights from long‐term research conducted in the watershed draining to the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the U.S., to inform management actions to restore the estuary and its watershed. The sediment dynamics of the Chesapeake are typical of many impaired watersheds and estuaries around the world, and this synthesis is intended to be relevant and transferable to other sediment‐impaired systems. The watershed's sediment sources, transport, delivery, and impacts are discussed with implications for effectively implementing best management practices (BMPs) to mitigate sediment issues. This synthesis revealed three key issues to consider when planning actions to reduce sediment loading: Scale, time, and land use. Geology and historical land use generated a template that current land use and climate, in addition to management, are acting upon to control sediment delivery. Important sediment sources in the Chesapeake include the Piedmont physiographic region, urban, and agricultural land use, and streambank erosion of headwater streams, whereas floodplain trapping is important along larger streams and rivers. Implementation of BMPs is widespread and is predicted to lead to decreased sediment loading; however, reworking of legacy sediment stored in stream valleys, with potentially long residence times in storage, can delay and complicate detection of the effects of BMPs on sediment loads. In conclusion, the improved understanding of sediment sources, storage areas, and transport lag times reviewed here can help target choices of BMP types and locations to better manage sediment problems—for both local streams and receiving waters.

New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virgin↗
USGS2009

The ecology, restoration, and management of southeastern floodplain ecosystems: A synthesis

Floodplain ecosystems of the southeastern United States provide numerous services to society, but hydrologic and geomorphic alterations, agricultural practices, water quality and availability, and urban development continue to challenge restorationists and managers at multiple spatial and temporal scales. These challenges are further exacerbated by tremendous uncertainty regarding climate and land use patterns and natural variability in these systems. The symposium from which the papers in 2009 ensued was organized to provide a critical evaluation of current natural resource restoration and management practices to support the sustainability of floodplain ecosystem functions in the southeastern United States. In this paper we synthesize these concepts and evaluate restoration and conservation techniques in light of our understanding of these ecosystems. We also discuss current and future challenges and attempt to identify new approaches that may facilitate the long-term sustainability of southeastern floodplain systems. We conclude that integration of disciplines and approaches is necessary to meet the floodplain conservation challenges of the coming century. Integration will not only include purposeful dialogue between interdisciplinary natural resource professionals, but it also is necessary to sincerely engage the public about goals, objectives, and desirable outcomes of floodplain ecosystem restoration.

Southeastern Floodplain systems↗
USGS2003

Assessment of selected inorganic constituents in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area, Arizona and northern Mexico, through 1998

Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations from data collected by the National Water-Quality Assessment and other U.S. Geological Survey water-quality programs were analyzed to (1) assess water quality, (2) determine natural and human factors affecting water quality, and (3) compute stream loads for the surface-water resources in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Stream temperature, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration and percent saturation, and dissolved-solids, suspended-sediment, and nutrient concentration data collected at 41 stream-water quality monitoring stations through water year 1998 were used in this assessment. Water-quality standards applicable to the stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentration data for the stations investigated in this study generally were met, although there were some exceedences. In a few samples from the White River, the Black River, and the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam, the pH in reaches designated as a domestic drinking water source was higher than the State of Arizona standard. More than half of the samples from the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and almost all of the samples from the stations on the Central Arizona Project Canal—two of the three most important surface-water sources used for drinking water in the Central Arizona Basins study area—exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking water Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids. Two reach-specific standards for nutrients established by the State of Arizona were exceeded many times: (1) the annual mean concentration of total phosphorus was exceeded during several years at stations on the main stems of the Salt and Verde Rivers, and (2) the annual mean concentration of total nitrogen was exceeded during several years at the Salt River near Roosevelt and at the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam. Stream properties and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were related to streamflow, season, water management, stream permanence, and land and water use. Dissolved-oxygen percent saturation, pH, and nutrient concentrations were dependent on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Seasonality and correlation with streamflow were dependant on stream regulation, stream permanence, and upstream disposal of wastewater. Temporal trends in streamflow, stream properties, and water-chemistry constituent concentrations were common in streams in the Central Arizona Basins study area. Temporal trends in the streamflow of unregulated perennial reaches in the Central Highlands tended to be higher from 1900 through the 1930s, lower from the 1940s through the 1970s, and high again after the 1970s. This is similar to the pattern observed for the mean annual precipitation for the Southwestern United States and indicates long-term trends in flow of streams draining the Central Highlands were driven by long-term trends in climate. Streamflow increased over the period of record at stations on effluent-dependent reaches as a result of the increase in the urban population and associated wastewater returns to the Salt and Gila Rivers in the Phoenix metropolitan area and the Santa Cruz River in the Tucson metropolitan area. Concentrations of dissolved solids decreased in the Salt River below Stewart Mountain Dam and in the Verde River below Bartlett Dam. This decrease represents an improvement in the water quality and resulted from a concurrent increase in the amount of runoff entering the reservoirs. Stream loads of water-chemistry constituents were compared at different locations along the streams with one another, and stream loads were compared to upstream inputs of the constituent from natural and anthropogenic sources to determine the relative importance of different sources and to determine the fate of the water-chemistry constituent. Of the dissolved solids transported into the Basin and Range Lowlands each year from the Central Arizona Project Canal and from streams draining the Central Highlands, about 1.2 billion kilograms accumulated in the soil, unsaturated zone, and aquifers in agricultural and urban areas as a result of irrigating crops and urban vegetation. Stream loads of phosphorus decreased from the 91st Avenue Wastewater-Treatment Plant downstream to the Gila River at Gillespie Dam, probably as a result of adsorption of phosphorus to the streambed sediments. In this same reach, stream loads of nitrogen increased, most likely because of inputs from fertilizers. The annual mass of nitrogen and phosphorus input to developed basins from quantifiable sources was much larger than the mass input to basins that had little or no municipal or agricul-tural development. These computed inputs exclude the mass of nitrogen and phosphorus from sources such as geologic formations and soils that could not be quantified. The quantifiable annual inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus for the upper Salt River Basin and the upper Verde River Basin were similar to those for the West Clear Creek Basin. This similarity suggests that the small amount of municipal and agricultural development in the upper Salt River and the upper Verde River Basins did not greatly change the basin input flux. For basins with minimal urban and agricultural development, the largest quantifiable source of nitrogen was precipitation, and the largest source of phosphorus was human bodily waste treated by sewer and septic systems. This was in contrast to developed basins, for which fertilizer was the largest quantifiable source of both nutrients. For most basins examined, quantifiable inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from nonpoint sources were greater than inputs from point sources. This relation emphasizes the importance of land- and water-management policies that protect surface-water resources from nonpoint sources of nutrients as well as from point sources. The amount of nitrogen and phosphorus transpor-ted out of basins was a small fraction of the total for the quantifiable inputs. This result indicated that most of the nutrients input to basins were not transported out of the basins in surface water, but rather were transported to the subsurface (the soil, unsaturated zone, or aquifer), released to the atmosphere (such as volatilized ammonia), or incorporated into the biomass.

Central Arizona Basins study area↗
USGS2013

Global change and water availability and quality: Challenges ahead

The US is in the midst of a continental scale, multiyear water resources experiment. What are we doing? We are expanding population at two to three times the national growth rate, particularly where water stress is already great. We are expanding irrigated agriculture from the west to the east, where increased competition for water has urban, agricultural, and environmental interests at odds, and increasingly, in court. This experiment and related challenges will continue and likely intensify as nonclimatic and climatic factors, such as predicted rising temperature and changes in the distribution of precipitation in time and space, continue to develop.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Comparison of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from watersheds draining the Bay Area and the Central Valley of California

Quantifying suspended sediment loads is important for managing the world's estuaries in the context of navigation, pollutant transport, wetland restoration, and coastal erosion. To address these needs, a comprehensive analysis was completed on sediment supply to San Francisco Bay from fluvial sources. Suspended sediment, optical backscatter, velocity data near the head of the estuary, and discharge data obtained from the output of a water balance model were used to generate continuous suspended sediment concentration records and compute loads to the Bay from the large Central Valley watershed. Sediment loads from small tributary watersheds around the Bay were determined using 235 station-years of suspended sediment data from 38 watershed locations, regression analysis, and simple modeling. Over 16 years, net annual suspended sediment load to the head of the estuary from its 154,000 km 2 Central Valley watershed varied from 0.13 to 2.58 (mean = 0.89) million metric t of suspended sediment, or an average yield of 11 metric t/km 2 /yr. Small tributaries, totaling 8145 km 2 , in the nine-county Bay Area discharged between 0.081 and 4.27 (mean = 1.39) million metric t with a mean yield of 212 metric t/km 2 /yr. The results indicate that the hundreds of urbanized and tectonically active tributaries adjacent to the Bay, which together account for just 5% of the total watershed area draining to the Bay and provide just 7% of the annual average fluvial flow, supply 61% of the suspended sediment. The small tributary loads are more variable (53-fold between years compared to 21-fold for the inland Central Valley rivers) and dominated fluvial sediment supply to the Bay during 10 out of 16 yr. If San Francisco Bay is typical of other estuaries in active tectonic or climatically variable coastal regimes, managers responsible for water quality, dredging and reusing sediment accumulating in shipping channels, or restoring wetlands in the world's estuaries may need to more carefully account for proximal small urbanized watersheds that may dominate sediment supply.

California↗
USGS2013

Human and biophysical influences on fire occurrence in the United States

National-scale analyses of fire occurrence are needed to prioritize fire policy and management activities across the United States. However, the drivers of national-scale patterns of fire occurrence are not well understood, and how the relative importance of human or biophysical factors varies across the country is unclear. Our research goal was to model the drivers of fire occurrence within ecoregions across the conterminous United States. We used generalized linear models to compare the relative influence of human, vegetation, climate, and topographic variables on fire occurrence in the United States, as measured by MODIS active fire detections collected between 2000 and 2006. We constructed models for all fires and for large fires only and generated predictive maps to quantify fire occurrence probabilities. Areas with high fire occurrence probabilities were widespread in the Southeast, and localized in the Mountain West, particularly in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico. Probabilities for large-fire occurrence were generally lower, but hot spots existed in the western and south-central United States The probability of fire occurrence is a critical component of fire risk assessments, in addition to vegetation type, fire behavior, and the values at risk. Many of the hot spots we identified have extensive development in the wildland–urban interface and are near large metropolitan areas. Our results demonstrated that human variables were important predictors of both all fires and large fires and frequently exhibited nonlinear relationships. However, vegetation, climate, and topography were also significant variables in most ecoregions. If recent housing growth trends and fire occurrence patterns continue, these areas will continue to challenge policies and management efforts seeking to balance the risks generated by wildfires with the ecological benefits of fire.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2019

Remote sensing as the foundation for high-resolution United States landscape projections – The Land Change Monitoring, assessment, and projection (LCMAP) initiative

The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatial and thematic) landscape projections at a national scale, using a unique parcel-based modeling framework. The methodology was tested by modeling 11 land use scenarios and 3 climate realizations for the U.S. Great Plains. Results demonstrate 1) an ability to balance competing land-use demands from quite variable, complex scenarios, 2) urban growth that matches theoretical future patterns, 3) the value of remote sensing data sources for model parameterization and for deriving landscape parcels, and 4) a pragmatic approach that facilitates the development of high thematic- and spatial-resolution projections at a national scale.

Environmental Modelling and Software↗
USGS2026

Reservoir releases and land cover interact to drive event-scale nitrate export in a large agricultural basin

Understanding the drivers of nitrate export in rivers is critical for developing effective nutrient management strategies. However, few studies have explored event-scale drivers of export in large river basins with human modifications like reservoirs. Here, we analyzed nitrate concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships from 215 events at the outlet of the Kansas River Basin, USA (155,690 km 2 ) from 2014 to 2022 to (1) characterize event-scale nitrate export behaviors in a large agricultural basin, and (2) determine how different event characteristics are linked to these behaviors. We found that C-Q behaviors varied greatly, with 60% of events producing nitrate enrichment (n = 130) and 40% of events producing nitrate dilution (n = 85). These behaviors were correlated with complex spatial interlinkages between climate and land cover: across most of the basin, nitrate enrichment was correlated with drier antecedent conditions, but in wetter areas with higher proportions of urban and forested land cover, enrichment was more strongly correlated with precipitation magnitude/intensity. This difference in hydroclimatic controls on nitrate export might be related to differential distributions of nitrate sources within these land covers. Upstream of major reservoirs, however, neither variable was strongly correlated with C-Q behavior, suggesting that nitrate attenuation within reservoirs decouples event-scale concentration signals in upstream waters from those downstream. Reservoir outflows had variable impacts on C-Q behavior, reflecting reservoir-specific variations in nitrate attenuation efficiency. Together, these results identify specific complex interactions between hydroclimate, land cover, reservoir positioning, and individual reservoir properties that control event-scale nitrate export from large basins.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗