Search USGS⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search USGS

Results for “Trends”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2007

Water-resource trends and comparisons between partial-development and October 2006 hydrologic conditions, Wood River Valley, south-central Idaho

This report analyzes trends in ground-water and surface-water data, documents 2006 hydrologic conditions, and compares 2006 and historic ground-water data of the Wood River Valley of south-central Idaho. The Wood River Valley extends from Galena Summit southward to the Timmerman Hills. It is comprised of a single unconfined aquifer and an underlying confined aquifer present south of Baseline Road in the southern part of the study area. Streams are well-connected to the shallow unconfined aquifer. Because the entire population of the area depends on ground water for domestic supply, either from domestic or municipal-supply wells, rapid population growth since the 1970s has raised concerns about the continued availability of ground and surface water to support existing uses and streamflow. To help address these concerns, this report evaluates ground- and surface-water conditions in the area before and during the population growth that started in the 1970s. Mean annual water levels in three wells (two completed in the unconfined aquifer and one in the confined aquifer) with more than 50 years of semi-annual measurements showed statistically significant declining trends. Mean annual and monthly streamflow trends were analyzed for three gaging stations in the Wood River Valley. The Big Wood River at Hailey gaging station (13139500) showed a statistically significant trend of a 25-percent increase in mean monthly base flow for March over the 90-year period of record, possibly because of earlier snowpack runoff. Both the 7-day and 30-day low-flow analyses for the Big Wood River near Bellevue gaging station (13141000) show a mean decrease of approximately 15 cubic feet per second since the 1940s, and mean monthly discharge showed statistically significant decreasing trends for December, January, and February. The Silver Creek at Sportsman Access near Picabo gaging station (13150430) also showed statistically significant decreasing trends in annual and mean monthly discharge for July through February and April from 1975 to 2005. Comparisons of partial-development (ground-water conditions from 1952 to 1986) and 2006 ground-water resources in the Wood River Valley using a geographic information system indicate that most ground-water levels for the unconfined aquifer in the study area are either stable or declining. Declines are predominant in the southern part of the study area south of Hailey, and some areas exceed what is expected of natural fluctuations in ground-water levels. Some ground-water levels rose in the northern part of the study area; however, these increases are approximated due to a lack of water-level data in the area. Ground-water level declines in the confined aquifer exceed the range of expected natural fluctuations in large areas of the confined aquifer in the southern part of the study area in the Bellevue fan. However, the results in this area are approximated due to limited available water-level data.

Idaho↗
USGS2012

Evaluating lake stratification and temporal trends by using near-continuous water-quality data from automated profiling systems for water years 2005-09, Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service and Southern Nevada Water Authority, collected near-continuous depth-dependent water-quality data at Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, as part of a multi-agency monitoring network maintained to provide resource managers with basic data and to gain a better understanding of the hydrodynamics of the lake. Water-quality data-collection stations on Lake Mead were located in shallow water (less than 20 meters) at Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm, and in deep water (greater than 20 meters) near Sentinel Island and at Virgin and Temple Basins. At each station, near-continual depth-dependent water-quality data were collected from October 2004 through September 2009. The data were collected by using automatic profiling systems equipped with multiparameter water-quality sondes. The sondes had sensors for temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, and depth. Data were collected every 6 hours at 2-meter depth intervals (for shallow-water stations) or 5-meter depth intervals (for deep-water stations) beginning at 1 meter below water surface. Data were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions related to stratification of the lake and temporal trends in water-quality parameters. Three water-quality parameters were the main focus of these analyses: temperature, specific conductance, and dissolved oxygen. Statistical temporal-trend analyses were performed for a single depth at shallow-water stations [Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) and Overton Arm] and for thermally-stratified lake layers at deep-water stations (Sentinel Island and Virgin Basin). The limited period of data collection at the Temple Basin station prevented the application of statistical trend analysis. During the summer months, thermal stratification was not observed at shallow-water stations, nor were major maxima or minima observed for specific-conductance or dissolved-oxygen profiles. A clearly-defined thermocline and well-defined maxima and minima in specific-conductance and dissolved-oxygen profiles were observed at deep-water stations during the summer months. Specific-conductance maxima were likely the result of inflow of water from either the Las Vegas Wash or Muddy/Virgin Rivers or both, while the minima were likely the result of inflow of water from the Colorado River. Maxima and minima for dissolved oxygen were likely the result of primary productivity blooms and their subsequent decay. Temporal-trend analyses indicated that specific conductance decreased at all stations over the period of record, except for Las Vegas Bay (Site 3), where specific conductance increased. Temperature also decreased over the period of record at deep-water stations for certain lake layers. Decreasing temperature and specific conductance at deep-water stations is the result of decreasing values in these parameters in water coming from the Colorado River. Quagga mussels (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis), however, could play a role in trends of decreasing specific conductance through incorporation of calcite in their shells. Trends of decreasing turbidity and pH at deep-water stations support the hypothesis that quagga mussels could be having an effect on the physical properties and water chemistry of Lake Mead. Unlike other stations, Las Vegas Bay (Site 3) had increasing specific conductance and is interpreted as the result of lowering lake levels decreasing the volume of lake water available for mixing and dilution of the high-conductance water coming from Las Vegas Wash. Dissolved oxygen increased over the period of record in some lake layers at the deep-water stations. Increasing dissolved oxygen at deep-water stations is believed to result, in part, from a reduction of phosphorus entering Lake Mead and the concomitant reduction of biological oxygen demand.

Arizona;California;Nevada;Utah↗
USGS2015

Water-quality trends in the Scituate reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, 1983-2012

The Scituate Reservoir is the primary source of drinking water for more than 60 percent of the population of Rhode Island. Water-quality and streamflow data collected at 37 surface-water monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island, from October 2001 through September 2012, water years (WYs) 2002-12, were analyzed to determine water-quality conditions and constituent loads in the drainage area. Trends in water quality, including physical properties and concentrations of constituents, were investigated for the same period and for a longer period from October 1982 through September 2012 (WYs 1983-2012). Water samples were collected and analyzed by the Providence Water Supply Board, the agency that manages the Scituate Reservoir. Streamflow data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey. Median values and other summary statistics for pH, color, turbidity, alkalinity, chloride, nitrite, nitrate, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli ( E. coli ), and orthophosphate were calculated for WYs 2003-12 for all 37 monitoring stations. Instantaneous loads and yields (loads per unit area) of total coliform bacteria and E. coli , chloride, nitrite, nitrate, and orthophosphate were calculated for all sampling dates during WYs 2003-12 for 23 monitoring stations with streamflow data. Values of physical properties and concentrations of constituents were compared with State and Federal water-quality standards and guidelines and were related to streamflow, land-use characteristics, varying classes of timber operations, and impervious surface areas. Tributaries in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area for WYs 2003-12 were slightly acidic (median pH of all stations equal to 6.1) and contained low median concentrations of chloride (22 milligrams per liter [mg/L]), nitrate (0.01 mg/L as nitrogen), nitrite (0.001 mg/L as nitrogen), and orthophosphate (0.02 milligrams per liter as phosphorus [mg/L as P]). Turbidity and alkalinity values also were low with medians of 0.57 nephelometric turbidity units and 5.1 mg/L as calcium carbonate, respectively. Total coliform bacteria and E. coli were detected in most samples from all stations, but median concentrations were generally low-43 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters (mL) and 15 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters, respectively. Median values of several physical properties and median concentrations of several constituents correlated positively with the percentages of developed land and negatively with the percentages of forest cover in the drainage areas above the monitoring stations. Median concentrations of chloride correlated positively with the percentages of impervious land use in the subbasins of monitoring stations, likely reflecting the effects of deicing compounds applied to roadways during winter maintenance. Median concentrations of alkalinity also correlated positively with the percentage of impervious land use, which may be related to the deterioration of fabricated structures containing calcium carbonate. Median values of color correlated positively with the percentage of wetland area in the subbasins of monitoring stations, reflecting the natural sources of color in tributaries. Streamflows were negatively correlated with turbidity and concentrations of total coliform bacteria and E. coli, possibly reflecting seasonal patterns in which relatively high values of these properties and constituents occur during warmer low-flow conditions late in the water year. Similar seasonal patterns were observed for pH, alkalinity, and color. Negative correlations between concentrations of chloride and streamflow also were significant, indicating that deicing salts from roadways and other impervious surfaces that lack direct connection to the tributaries are likely infiltrating to the groundwater and discharging to some of the tributaries late in the water year. While salt-laden runoff directly enters some of the tributaries at roadway crossings, most of the roadway runoff infiltrates into the adjacent berms throughout the drainage area. Statistically significant correlations were not identified between various degrees of tree-canopy reduction caused by timber operations in the subbasins and median values or concentrations of water-quality properties. Loads and yields of chloride, nitrate, nitrite, orthophosphate, and bacteria varied at monitoring stations in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area in WYs 2003-12. Loads generally were greater at stations in the Barden Reservoir and the Regulating Reservoir Subbasins that have larger drainage areas than in subbasins with smaller drainage areas. Subbasin yields of fecal-indicator bacteria and orthophosphate generally were largest in the Westconnaug Reservoir Subbasin, and subbasin yields for chloride, nitrate, and nitrite were largest in the Moswansicut Reservoir Subbasin in the northeastern part of the drainage area. Upward trends in pH were identified for nearly half of the monitoring stations for WYs 1983-2012 and may reflect regional reductions in acid precipitation. Many upward trends in alkalinity also were identified for both the WYs 1983-2012 and for WYs 2003-12 periods and are likely related to the natural weathering of structures containing concrete or, in some cases, the application of lime or fertilizers on agriculture lands. Significant trends in chloride concentrations at most stations during WYs 1983-2012 were upward; however, results for WYs 2003-12 substantiate few significant upward trends and, in a few cases, downward trends were identified in several tributary drainage areas.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2020

Trends in nutrient and soil loss in Illinois rivers, 1978–2017

Nutrient and soil loss, defined herein as the loss of nutrients or soil to streams and other downstream receiving waters, affect watersheds around the globe. Although governments make large investments mitigating nutrient and soil loss through watershed management efforts, the efficacy of these efforts is often difficult to assess, in part because streamflow variability obscures the effects. This study investigates the effects of watershed management on nutrient and soil losses in the State of Illinois during two periods: 1978 to 2017, and 2008 to 2017. The former period provides an important test case for assessing the efficacy of major Federal programs like the Clean Water Act and the Conservation Reserve Program at mitigating nutrient and soil loss, whereas the latter spans the years after these policies were well established, thereby providing an assessment of whether these programs have kept pace with ongoing trends in climate and watershed management. The effect of interannual streamflow variability on long-term nutrient and soil loss trends was removed using an extension of the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season methodology, called generalized flow normalization. This process also partitions trends into components attributable to long-term changes in streamflow and watershed management. The Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season trend analysis indicated significant, widespread trends in nutrient and soil loss in Illinois since 1978. From 1978 to 2017, improvements in watershed management reduced nitrogen and soil loss from watersheds within Illinois, but this effect was partially or entirely negated by increasing losses due to changing streamflow. During the same period, phosphorus loss also increased owing to a combination of inadequate management efforts and changing streamflow. During 2008–17, however, nutrient and soil losses have all accelerated, threatening to undo previous reductions if the current trends continue.

Illinois↗
USGS2020

Quantifying trends in arsenic, nitrate, and dissolved solids from selected wells in Utah

Groundwater makes up a primary portion of the water supply in many parts of Utah, with annual withdrawals estimated at more than 1,000,000 acre-feet per year. Increases to groundwater withdrawal and land use may negatively impact water availability. Ensuring availability of clean water requires understanding how water quality has changed over time and how natural and human activities and processes influence water quality. Changes in arsenic, nitrate, and dissolved-solids concentrations in the groundwater in basins with high groundwater withdrawals were evaluated between 1975 and 2015 as indicators of basinwide water quality and the suitability of water for drinking. Data were used from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water Information System (NWIS) database and the Safe Drinking Water Information System (SDWIS) maintained by the Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Division of Drinking Water. Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to assess temporal trends in decadal and 5-year (sub-decadal) median analyte concentrations in basins. Trends also were assessed in smaller parts of larger basins to focus on changes occurring at a smaller spatial scale. To evaluate the relationship between land-use change and water-quality changes, trends also were evaluated for wells where land use has changed. Trends in decadal and sub-decadal median arsenic, nitrate, and dissolved-solids concentrations over time were identified throughout the basins and sub-basins in this study. For combined NWIS and SDWIS data, rates of median arsenic concentration change in basins and sub-basins ranged between decreases of –0.24 microgram per liter ( μ g/L) per year and increases of 0.48 μ g/L per year. Rates of median nitrate-concentration change ranged between decreases of –0.08 milligram per liter (mg/L) per year and increases of 0.02 mg/L per year. Rates of median dissolved solids concentration change ranged between decreases of –5 mg/L per year and increases of 7 mg/L per year. The rates of change for nitrate and dissolved solids were similar to or less than rates of change observed in other parts of the country. Trends were not directly related to land-use change approximal to a well, although more data from wells where land use has changed would improve this evaluation. These findings highlight that water quality at a well is related to a range of factors including land, demographics, and water use over a larger area surrounding and up-gradient from the well; rates and direction of groundwater movement; and geologic and hydrologic conditions.

Utah↗
USGS2021

Assessment of groundwater trends near Crex Meadows, Wisconsin

Crex Meadows Wildlife Area (Crex) is a 30,000-acre property in Burnett County, Wisconsin. Crex is managed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) with the goal of providing public recreation opportunities while also protecting the quality of native ecological communities and species on the property. The WDNR’s management strategy includes controlling water levels at flowages in Crex using a system of dikes, water control structures, ditches, and a diversion pump. For the past several decades there has been concern among nearby landowners that the water manage-ment strategy at Crex may be contributing to groundwater flooding in adjacent, privately held properties. This issue has been particularly contentious during periods when regional groundwater elevations are already high. This study was conducted in response to those concerns. For the study, a network of 12 monitoring wells was installed in and to the west of Crex. Groundwater elevations were recorded in the wells before, during, and after water-level changes in the western Crex flowages to assess if groundwater elevations to the west of Crex are detectably affected by the flowage water levels. This study successfully collected groundwater elevations in 11 study wells during a 3-month period in 2019 when water elevations in the Dike 6 flowage and Erickson flowage were lowered and then raised. The data logger at a 12th location failed and no data were recorded. The groundwater elevation trends in these study wells were compared with groundwater elevation trends at a regional U.S. Geological Survey well to provide information for determining if changing the flowage elevations had a noticeable response in the study wells west of Crex Meadows. This analysis was done by (1) evaluating study well groundwater elevation trends compared to the regional well, (2) using a scatter plot of study well and regional well data during raising and lowering periods, (3) assessing horizontal hydraulic gradient data during the study period, and (4) assessing the cumulative departure from the mean groundwater elevation for each well. Overall, regional groundwater elevations had a down-ward trend before and during the flowage lowering period and then had an upward trend during the flowage raising period. This pattern was observed in the regional well and in all the study wells adjacent to and several miles from the flowages. The similarity in patterns indicates that precipitation and regional groundwater flow conditions were the dominant drivers of the system during the study period. The scatter plot and cumulative departure from the mean analysis showed that in addition to regional trends, wells 1, 6, and 7 were likely affected by the changes in the flowage water levels. Overall, at least on the timescale of this study, water management at Crex likely did not have detectable effects on wells outside the Crex property. Wells installed on the Crex property including the wells in the lakebeds of the flowages (wells 1 and 7) and possibly well 6 east of the flowages showed what seems to be minor affects due to water management at Crex.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2022

Water-quality conditions and constituent loads, water years 2013–19, and water-quality trends, water years 1983–2019, in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area, Rhode Island

The Scituate Reservoir is the primary source of drinking water for more than 60 percent of the population of Rhode Island. From October 1, 1982, to September 30, 2019, water years (WYs) 1983–2019 (a water year is the period between October 1 and September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends), the Providence Water Supply Board maintained a fixed-frequency sampling program at 37 stations to monitor water quality in tributaries to the Scituate Reservoir. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Providence Water Supply Board, has measured streamflow at selected streamgages in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area since WY 1994, monitored water quality at selected stations since WY 2009, and conducted targeted base-flow and stormflow sampling at five stations in WYs 2016–19. Daily loads and yields of constituents (chloride, nitrite, nitrate, total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli , and orthophosphate) were determined for sampled days during WYs 2013–19, and trends were examined for the entire period of record, predominantly WYs 1983–2019. USGS water-quality data were used to determine annual loads and yields of chloride and sodium for WYs 2013–19 at 14 stations, and nutrients and suspended sediment for WYs 2016–19 at 5 stations. Tributaries in the Scituate Reservoir drainage area for WYs 2013–19 were slightly acidic (pH values less than 7.0 standard units) and often below the recommended pH range of 6.5 to 8.5 standard units, as described by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in the secondary drinking-water regulations. Most measurements of water color in the tributaries were greater than the EPA secondary drinking-water regulation of 15 platinum-cobalt units. Chloride concentrations in Providence Water Supply Board samples rarely exceeded the EPA secondary drinking-water regulation for chloride (250 milligrams per liter); however, chloride concentrations estimated from continuous measurements of specific conductance exceeded the EPA criterion continuous concentration recommended for freshwater (230 milligrams per liter) for short periods ranging from 10 minutes to 26 hours at two streamgages. Positive trends in pH, color, alkalinity, and chloride at more than half of the monitoring stations were identified for WYs 1983–2019. Fewer than half of the stations had significant trends in turbidity values, and significant trends varied in direction (positive or negative trends). Trend tests were not performed on total coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli , and nitrate concentrations because of analytical method changes that coincide with abrupt shifts in the magnitude and distribution of concentration data. The median of daily loads and yields of chloride, nitrite, nitrate, orthophosphate, and bacteria determined for each Providence Water Supply Board sample in WYs 2013–19 varied across the 37 monitoring stations, but yields were generally greater at stations in the Moswansicut and Regulating Reservoir subbasins. Average daily yields of chloride and sodium estimated from continuous records of specific-conductance and streamflow data at 14 stations ranged from 42 to 310 kilograms per square mile per day and 28 to 180 kilograms per square mile per day, respectively. The mean annual yields of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and suspended sediment determined for five stations ranged from 16 to 78 kilograms per square mile, from 370 to 2,100 kilograms per square mile, and from 5,000 to 13,000 kilograms per square mile, respectively. More than half of the nutrient and suspended sediment loads occurred during stormflow.

Rhode Island↗
USGS2024

Peak streamflow trends in Michigan and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020

This study characterizes hydroclimatic variability and change in peak streamflow and daily streamflow in Michigan from water years 1921 through 2020. Four analysis periods were examined: the 100-year period from water year 1921 through 2020, the 75-year period from water year 1946 through 2020, the 50-year period from water year 1971 through 2020, and the 30-year period from water year 1991 through 2020. Peak streamflow and climate data were available at 4, 29, 50, and 30 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively. Daily streamflow was available for 4, 29, 74, and 79 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively. Peak streamflow for each streamgage and analysis period was assessed for monotonic trends and change points. Trends in peak streamflow were predominantly upward, with some isolated downward trends throughout the southern half of Michigan for all four analysis periods. Trends in the Upper Peninsula were downward in 75- and 50-year analysis periods and upward or neutral in the 30-year period. Upward trends in peak flows were largely driven by increases in precipitation, which occurred at nearly every streamgage in all analysis periods, with the greatest magnitude trends in winter and spring in the 50- and 30-year periods.

Michigan↗
USGS2025

Spatial and seasonal water-quality patterns and temporal water-quality trends in Lake Conroe on the West Fork San Jacinto River near Conroe, Texas, 1974–2021

The impoundment of Lake Conroe in 1973 created an important water resource for greater Houston, Texas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Jacinto River Authority, analyzed water-quality data collected from 1974 to 2021 at upreservoir, mid-reservoir, and downreservoir sites in Lake Conroe. Water-column and seasonal variability of selected water-quality constituents (physiochemical properties, major ions, nutrients, and trace metals) were assessed, as well as thermal stratification. Water-quality trends were evaluated for 1974–2021 and 1993–2021. Near-surface water (1–3 feet below the water surface) was warmer and contained higher dissolved-oxygen concentrations compared to near-bottom water (2–3 feet above the reservoir bottom). Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were lowest in summer and highest in winter. Specific conductance was higher near the bottom and varied seasonally, being lowest in winter and highest in summer. Values of pH were generally higher at the surface, with some variability between sites and seasons. Water transparency was higher downreservoir and seasonally lowest in summer. Major-ion concentrations varied minimally within the water column and seasonally, except for sulfate, which was higher in winter and lower in summer. Most nutrient and trace metal concentrations were highest near the bottom during summer, notably at deeper sites. Thermal stratification in Lake Conroe begins in spring and peaks in summer and was limited to the deeper parts of the reservoir. The seasonal variability observed in dissolved constituent concentrations was driven by thermal stratification. Trend analyses for 1974–2021 indicated positive trends in water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, potassium, sodium, and silica. Negative trends were detected for calcium and magnesium near the reservoir bottom. During 1993–2021, positive trends were detected for near-surface dissolved-oxygen concentration, specific conductance, pH, all major ions excluding sulfate, and near-surface ammonia plus organic nitrogen concentration. Negative trends were determined for ammonia, iron, and manganese concentrations. Water transparency generally decreased over time.

Texas↗
USGS2026

Assessment of long-term trends in streamflow statistics within and near the Mobile Bay and Perdido Bay watersheds, United States, 1950–2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council, assessed monotonic trends for a variety of streamflow statistics for 69 long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages within either the Mobile Bay or Perdido Bay watersheds that were active through at least at the end of calendar year 2019. Long-term data were defined for this investigation as having at least 50 years of cumulative record within the period since January 1, 1950, with a requirement for a complete record of streamflow during the 2010s (2010–19). The 69 streamgages have at least 54 years and as many as 73 years of daily mean streamflow data; the median period of record is 72 years; and 15 of the streamgages are identified as “major nodes” on the basis of the criteria described. The occurrence of statistically monotonic significant trends for the 69 streamgages at the 0.05 significance level is spatially shown for six statistics. For the major node streamgages, the study depicts (1) time-series graphics of annual mean, annual harmonic mean, decadal 10th, 50th, and 90th-percentile streamflows, and (2) a variation on Quantile-Kendall plots of Kendall’s tau and streamflow nonexceedance probabilities for each of the 365 days of a year. Trend assessment synthesis shows that, except for a few streamgages with relatively greater counts of statistically significant trends than others, the majority (about 93 percent) of individual trend tests indicate no trend in the streamflow and ecological metrics considered.

Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi,↗
USGS2000

Factors affecting nutrient trends in major rivers of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Trends in nutrient loads and flow-adjusted concentrations in the major rivers entering Chesapeake Bay were computed on the basis of water-quality data collected between 1985 and 1998 at 29 monitoring stations in the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, York, Patuxent, and Choptank River Basins. Two computer models-the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model (WSM) and the U.S. Geological Survey's 'Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes' (SPARROW) Model-were used to help explain the major factors affecting the trends. Results from WSM simulations provided information on temporal changes in contributions from major nutrient sources, and results from SPARROW model simulations provided spatial detail on the distribution of nutrient yields in these basins. Additional data on nutrient sources, basin characteristics, implementation of management practices, and ground-water inputs to surface water were analyzed to help explain the trends. The major factors affecting the trends were changes in nutrient sources and natural variations in streamflow. The dominant source of nitrogen and phosphorus from 1985 to 1998 in six of the seven tributary basins to Chesapeake Bay was determined to be agriculture. Because of the predominance of agricultural inputs, changes in agricultural nutrient sources such as manure and fertilizer, combined with decreases in agricultural acreage and implementation of best management practices (BMPs), had the greatest impact on the trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations. Urban acreage and population, however, were noted to be increasing throughout the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, and as a result, delivered loads of nutrients from urban areas increased during the study period. Overall, agricultural nutrient management, in combination with load decreases from point sources due to facility upgrades and the phosphate detergent ban, led to downward trends in flow-adjusted nutrient concentrations atmany of the monitoring stations in the watershed. The loads of nutrients, however, were not reduced significantly at most of the monitoring stations. This is due primarily to higher streamflow in the latter years of the monitoring period, which led to higher loading in those years. Results of this study indicate a need for more detailed information on BMP effectiveness under a full range of hydrologic conditions and in different areas of the watershed; an internally consistent fertilizer data set; greater consideration of the effects of watershed processes on nutrient transport; a refinement of current modeling efforts; and an expansion of the non-tidal monitoring network in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗
USGS1984

Trend analysis of salt load and evaluation of the frequency of water-quality measurements for the Gunnison, the Colorado, and the Dolores rivers in Colorado and Utah

Monthly values were computed for water-quality constituents at four streamflow gaging stations in the Upper Colorado River basin for the determination of trends. Seasonal regression and seasonal Kendall trend analysis techniques were applied to two monthly data sets at each station site for four different time periods. A recently developed method for determining optimal water-discharge data-collection frequency was also applied to the monthly water-quality data. Trend analysis results varied with each monthly load computational method, period of record, and trend detection model used. No conclusions could be reached regarding which computational method was best to use in trend analysis. Time-period selection for analysis was found to be important with regard to intended use of the results. Seasonal Kendall procedures were found to be applicable to most data sets. Seasonal regression models were more difficult to apply and were sometimes of questionable validity; however, those results were more informative than seasonal Kendall results. The best model to use depends upon the characteristics of the data and the amount of trend information needed. The measurement-frequency optimization method had potential for application to water-quality data, but refinements are needed. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1996

Trends in chloride, dissolved-solids, and nitrate concentrations in ground water, Carson Valley and Topaz Lake Areas, Douglas County, Nevada, 1959-88

Rapid population growth in Douglas County, an area of approximately 750 square miles in west-central Nevada, has led to concern about the present and future effects of development on ground water. This report describes the results of two nonparametric statistical procedures applied to detect trends in concentrations of chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate in ground water. The water-quality data consist of analytical results from ground-water samples collected and analyzed by the U. S. Geological Survey and ground-water-quality data provided by the Nevada Bureau of Health Protection Services for the Carson Valley and Topaz Lake areas of Douglas County, Nevada. For purposes of this study, statistical significance, expressed as the p-value, was set at 0.1. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxan rank-sum test detected increasing step-trends for nitrate in one of seven residential areas and for dissolved-solids concentrations throughout the study area. Decreasing step-trends for chloride and dissolved-solids concentrations were detected in the west Carson Valley area. Kendall's Tau detected monotonic trends for increasing nitrate concentrations at four domestic wells and for increasing dissolved-solids concentrations at two domestic wells. No other statistically significant trends were indicated by either test. Land-use relations to areas where increasing trends were detected suggest that the density of individual wastewater-treatment systems may exceed the capacity of soils to treat wastewater leachate.

Nevada↗
USGS1999

Use of environmental tracers to evaluate ground-water age and water-quality trends in a buried-valley aquifer, Dayton area, southwestern Ohio

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC method) and tritium and helium isotopes (3H-3He method) were used as environmental tracers to estimate ground-water age in conjunction with efforts to develop a regional ground-water flow model of the buried-valley aquifer in the Dayton area, southwestern Ohio. This report describes results of CFC and water-quality sampling, summarizes relevant aspects of previously published work, and describes the use of 3H-3He ages to characterize temporal trends in ground-water quality of the buried-valley aquifer near Dayton, Ohio. Results of CFC sampling indicate that approximately 25 percent of the 137 sampled wells were contaminated with excess CFC's that rendered the ground water unsuitable for age dating. Evaluation of CFC ages obtained for the remaining samples indicated that the CFC compounds used for dating were being affected by microbial degradation. The degradation occurred under anoxic conditions that are found in most parts of the buried-valley aquifer. As a result, ground-water ages derived by the CFC method were too old and were inconsistent with measured tritium concentrations and independently derived 3H-3He ages. Limited data indicate that dissolved methane may play an important role in the degradation of the CFC's. In contrast, the 3H-3He technique was found to yield ground-water ages that were chemically and hydrologically reasonable. Ground-water ages derived by the 3H-3He technique were compared to values for selected water- quality characteristics to evaluate temporal trends in ground-water quality in the buried- valley aquifer. Distinct temporal trends were not identified for pH, alkalinity, or calcium and magnesium because of rapid equilibration of ground-water with calcite and dolomite in aquifer sediments. Temporal trends in which the amount of scatter and the number of outlier concentrations increased as ground-water age decreased were noted for sodium, potassium, boron, bromide, chloride, ammonia, nitrate, phosphate, sulfate, and organic carbon. Elevated concentrations of these constituents in shallow ground water are probably related to human activities. Temporal trends in which concentrations declined as ground-water age increased may reflect natural processes that reduce constituent concentrations to low levels. For example, the absence of nitrate detections in ground water recharged before 1980 may indicate natural removal of nitrate by bacterially mediated denitrification. Temporal trends observed for dissolved oxygen, iron, nitrate and silica indicate that these constituents may help identify recently (post-1990) recharged ground water.

Ohio↗
USGS2000

Sources, instream transport, and trends of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in the lower Tennessee River basin, 1980-96

In 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began an assessment of the lower Tennessee River Basin as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Existing nutrient and sediment data from 1980 to 1996 were compiled, screened, and interpreted to estimate watershed inputs from nutrient sources, provide a general description of the distribution and transport of nutrients and sediments in surface water, and evaluate trends in nutrient and sediment concentrations in the lower Tennessee (LTEN) River Basin. Nitrogen inputs from major sources varied widely among tributary basins in the LTEN River Basin. Point source wastewater discharges contributed between 0 and 0.61 tons per square mile per year [(tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Of the nonpoint sources of nitrogen for which inputs were estimated (atmospheric deposition, nitrogen fixation, fertilizer application, and livestock waste) livestock waste contributed the largest input in about two-thirds (7 out of 11) of the tributary basins, and fertilizer application contributed the largest input in the remaining 4 basins. Nitrogen input from fertilizer application was the most variable spatially among the nonpoint sources of nitrogen, ranging from 1.5 to 23 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Atmospheric deposition estimates varied the least from basin to basin, ranging from 1.6 to 2.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. Estimates of nitrogen input from livestock waste ranged between 2.0 to 13 (tons/mi 2 )/yr. The percentage of the input from each of these nonpoint sources that entered the surface-water system is not known. Wastewater discharge contributed between 0 and 0.14 (ton/mi 2 )/yr of phosphorus to tributary basins. Livestock waste contributed most of the input in 8 out of the 11 basins, and fertilizer application contributed the most in the remaining 3 basins. Estimates of phosphorus input for fertilizer application ranged from 0.35 to 5.1 (tons/mi 2 )/yr and from 0.62 to 4.3 (tons/mi 2 )/yr from livestock waste. Reservoirs on the main stem of the Tennessee River and on the Duck and Elk Rivers affect nutrient transport because hydrodynamic conditions in the reservoirs promote assimilation by aquatic plants and deposition of particulate matter. Observed decreases in total nitrite plus nitrate and dissolved-orthophosphorus concentrations in reservoirs or at sites downstream of reservoirs during summer months were probably related to seasonality of plant growth. Nutrient and sediment data used to estimate annual instream loads and yields were compiled from various water-quality monitoring programs and represent the best available data in the LTEN River Basin, but these data have several characteristics that limit accuracy of load estimates. Many of the monitoring programs were not designed with the objective of annual load estimation, and data representing storm transport are, therefore, sparse; sampling and analytical methods varied through time and among the monitoring programs, hampering spatial and temporal comparisons. The load estimates computed from these data are useful for evaluating broad spatial patterns of instream load, and comparisons of instream load to inputs, but may not be sufficiently accurate for local-scale evaluations of water quality. Estimates of the mean annual instream load of total nitrogen entering (Chattanooga, Tenn.) and leaving (Paducah, Ky.) the LTEN River Basin were 29,000 and 60,000 tons per year (tons/yr), respectively. These estimates represent a gain of 31,000 tons/yr, on average, across the area (18,930 mi 2 ) between these inlet and outlet sites. The sum of the mean annual instream load from gaged tributaries to the main stem within the study unit was 14,000 tons/yr; however, this number cannot be directly compared with the gain between the inlet and outlet sites because (1) the gaged area represents only 30 percent of the total area and (2) the period of record at many tributary sites did not correspond with the period of record at the inlet or outlet sites. Estimates of mean annual instream load of total phosphorus at the inlet and outlet sites of the LTEN River Basin were 1,300 and 5,000 tons/yr, respectively, representing a gain of 3,700 tons/yr, on average, across the study unit. The sum of the gaged tributary load, representing only 28 percent of the area contributing to the main stem, was 4,300 tons/yr. Although this number cannot be closely compared with the gain throughout the study unit, for the same reasons given for total nitrogen, a general comparison suggests that the main stem of the Tennessee River and the tributary embayments along the main stem function as a sink for total phosphorus, removing a substantial amount from the water column through deposition or assimilation. The estimates of inputs can be compared and correlated with yields (area-normalized instream loads); significant correlations between estimates of inputs and yields might be useful as predictive tools for instream water quality where monitoring data are not available. Yields of nitrogen correlated moderately well with inputs from nonpoint sources, based on 1992 estimates. Nitrogen yield was highest [3.5 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for Town Creek, for which the balance of nonpoint-source inputs to agricultural lands (fertilizer application plus nitrogen fixation plus livestock waste minus harvest) was also the highest [15 (tons/mi 2 )/yr]. Nitrogen yield was low [1.0 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] for the Buffalo River, for which the balance of agricultural nonpoint-source input was correspondingly low [3.2 (tons/mi 2 )/yr, the second lowest]. Correlation of wastewater discharge with yield was poor, and contrasted with the significant correlation between wastewater discharge and median nitrogen concentration during low streamflow. The poor correlation between wastewater discharge and annual yield was expected, however, as wastewater discharge is a small fraction compared with annual yield. In contrast with nitrogen, phosphorus yield did not correlate well with any estimated inputs or land-use types for the tributary basins. Phosphorus yield was highest [1.1 and 0.93 (tons/mi 2 )/yr] at two sites along the Duck River and at Elk River near Prospect [0.89 (ton/mi 2 )/yr]; however, estimates of inputs at these sites were in the middle of their respective ranges. The influence of the outcrop of phosphatic limestone formations of the brown-phosphate districts in the lower Duck and lower Elk River Basins might be responsible for the poor correlation between estimated inputs and yields of phosphorus. The outcrop pattern of these phosphatic limestones are an important factor to consider as regional boundaries are established for attainable, region-specific water-quality criteria for total phosphorus. Estimates of sediment input from cropland soil erosion in 1992 ranged from 51 to 540 (tons/mi 2 )/yr among the major hydrologic units in the LTEN River Basin. Information was not available to estimate this input for individual tributaries. Sediment yield estimates ranged from 65 to 263 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the three tributary monitoring basins for which instream data were available, and from 17 to 26 (tons/mi 2 )/yr for the Tennessee River at South Pittsburg and at Pickwick Landing Dam, respectively. Lower sediment yields for the main stem sites compared with the tributary sites is probably due to sediment deposition in the main stem of the Tennessee River and tributary embayments along the main stem. Most of the significant trends in nutrient concentrations from about 1985 to about 1995 were decreasing trends, except for total nitrite plus nitrate, which increased at one site on the Elk River. The spatial distribution of decreasing trends of total nitrogen and total ammonia corresponds with the spatial variation among basins in wastewater loading rate. The time period of observed trends corresponds to the period of improvements in municipal treatment, thus decreases in wastewater effluent concentrations of nitrogen might be responsible for the decreasing trend in instream concentrations at these sites. Concentrations of total phosphorus did not decrease during this period at these sites, as might have been expected considering the reductions in wastewater input of phosphorus during this period.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee↗
USGS1999

Occurrence, distribution, and trends of volatile organic compounds in the Ohio River and its major tributaries, 1987-96

The Ohio River is a source of drinking water for more than 3 million people. Thus, it is important to monitor the water quality of this river to determine if contaminants are present, their concentrations, and if water quality is changing with time. This report presents an analysis of the occurrence, distribution, and trends of 21 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) along the main stem of the Ohio River and its major tributaries from 1987 through 1996. The data were collected by the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission's Organics Detection System, which monitors daily for VOCs at 15 stations. Various statistical methods were applied to basinwide data from all monitoring stations and to data from individual monitoring stations. For the basinwide data, one or more VOCs were detected in 45 percent of the 44,837 river-water samples. Trichloromethane, detected in 26 percent of the samples, was the most frequently detected VOC followed by benzene (11 percent), methylbenzene (6.4 percent), and the other 18 VOCs, which were detected in less than 4 percent of the samples. In samples from 8 of the 15 monitoring stations, trichloromethane was also the most frequently detected VOC. These stations were generally near large cities along the Ohio River. The median trichloromethane concentration was 0.3 microgram per liter (μg/L), and concentrations ranged from less than 0.1 to 125.3 μg/L. Most of the VOCs had median detected concentrations that ranged from 0.1 to 0.4 μg/L for the basinwide data and for samples from individual stations. Samples from stations in the upstream part of the basin and from the Kanawha River had the highest median concentrations. Ninety-nine percent of the detected VOC concentrations were within U.S. Environmental Protection Agency drinking-water regulations. Of the 268 exceedances of drinking-water regulations, 188 were due to the detection of 1,2-dichloroethane prior to 1993 in samples from the monitoring station near Paducah, Ky. Time trend analyses indicated that most VOCs had no trend in samples at most monitoring stations because they were detected infrequently. At one or more stations, 14 VOCs had decreasing trends in monthly mean concentrations that ranged from -0.01 to -0.42 μ/L per year. Nine VOCs had significant decreasing trends in percentage detection that ranged from -1.08 to -12.90 percent per year. These trends suggest that source-control efforts are working and that water quality is improving.

Ohio River↗
USGS1997

Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff

This study examines the statistical likelihood of detecting a trend in annual runoff given an assumed change in mean annual runoff, the underlying year-to-year variability in runoff, and serial correlation of annual runoff. Means, standard deviations, and lag-1 serial correlations of annual runoff were computed for 585 stream gages in the conterminous United States, and these statistics were used to compute the probability of detecting a prescribed trend in annual runoff. Assuming a linear 20% change in mean annual runoff over a 100 yr period and a significance level of 95%, the average probability of detecting a significant trend was 28% among the 585 stream gages. The largest probability of detecting a trend was in the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes region, the northeastern U.S., the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains. The smallest probability of trend detection was in the central and southwestern U.S., and in Florida. Low probabilities of trend detection were associated with low ratios of mean annual runoff to the standard deviation of annual runoff and with high lag-1 serial correlation in the data.

conterminous United States↗
USGS2015

Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata , white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura , Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla , collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii , Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra , black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus , and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi . The endangered Mariana crow (x̄ = 81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI = 815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba , rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae , and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca . Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

Rota↗