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Exploring sensitivity of a multistate occupancy model to inform management decisions

1. Dynamic occupancy models are often used to investigate questions regarding the processes that influence patch occupancy and are prominent in the fields of population and community ecology and conservation biology. Recently, multistate occupancy models have been developed to investigate dynamic systems involving more than one occupied state, including reproductive states, relative abundance states and joint habitat‐occupancy states. Here we investigate the sensitivities of the equilibrium‐state distribution of multistate occupancy models to changes in transition rates. 2. We develop equilibrium occupancy expressions and their associated sensitivity metrics for dynamic multistate occupancy models. To illustrate our approach, we use two examples that represent common multistate occupancy systems. The first example involves a three‐state dynamic model involving occupied states with and without successful reproduction (California spotted owl Strix occidentalis occidentalis ), and the second involves a novel way of using a multistate occupancy approach to accommodate second‐order Markov processes (wood frog Lithobates sylvatica breeding and metamorphosis). 3. In many ways, multistate sensitivity metrics behave in similar ways as standard occupancy sensitivities. When equilibrium occupancy rates are low, sensitivity to parameters related to colonisation is high, while sensitivity to persistence parameters is greater when equilibrium occupancy rates are high. Sensitivities can also provide guidance for managers when estimates of transition probabilities are not available. 4. Synthesis and applications. Multistate models provide practitioners a flexible framework to define multiple, distinct occupied states and the ability to choose which state, or combination of states, is most relevant to questions and decisions about their own systems. In addition to standard multistate occupancy models, we provide an example of how a second‐order Markov process can be modified to fit a multistate framework. Assuming the system is near equilibrium, our sensitivity analyses illustrate how to investigate the sensitivity of the system‐specific equilibrium state(s) to changes in transition rates. Because management will typically act on these transition rates, sensitivity analyses can provide valuable information about the potential influence of different actions and when it may be prudent to shift the focus of management among the various transition rates.

Journal of Applied Ecology

Global GIS database. Digital atlas of Central and South America

This CD-ROM contains a digital atlas of the countries of Central and South America. This atlas is part of a global database compiled from USGS and other data sources at the nominal scale of 1:1 million and is intended to be used as a regional-scale reference and analytical tool by government officials, researchers, the private sector, and the general public. The atlas includes free GIS software or may also be used with ESRI's ArcView software. Customized ArcView tools, specifically designed to make the atlas easier to use, are also included. The atlas contains the following datasets: country political boundaries, digital shaded relief map, elevation, slope, hydrology, locations of cities and towns, airfields, roads, railroads, utility lines, population density, geology, ecological regions, historical seismicity, volcanoes, ore deposits, oil and gas fields, climate data, landcover, vegetation index, and lights at night.

Data Series

A framework for decision points to trigger adaptive management actions in long-term incidental take permits

Introduction The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has begun to issue incidental take permits (ITPs) to wind power companies to allow limited take of bird and bat species that are protected under the Endangered Species Act, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act, or the Migratory Bird Treaty Act (Huso and others, 2015). Expected take rates are determined using scientifically based collision-risk models and knowledge about the ecology of the population of interest. ITPs often include mitigation requirements to compensate for estimated take and further describe (1) adaptive management actions (AMAs) that may be required to reduce take rates if permitted rate is exceeded, or (2) additional compensatory mitigation to offset take that exceeds permitted levels. Confirming the accuracy of predicted take and providing evidence that permitted take levels have not been exceeded can be challenging because carcasses may be detected with probability much less than 1, and often no carcasses are observed. When detection probability is high, finding 0 carcasses can be interpreted as evidence that none (or few) were actually killed. As the probability of observing an individual decreases, the likelihood of missing carcasses increases, making it unclear how to interpret having observed 0 (or few) carcasses. In a practical sense, the consequences of incorrect inference can be significant: overestimating take could result in costly and unjustified mitigation, whereas underestimating could result in unanticipated declines in species populations already at risk.

Open-File Report

A novel tool to selectively deliver a control agent to filter-feeding silver and bighead carp

Invasive carp pose substantial economic and ecological damage when populations are widespread in freshwater systems within the United States. Resource managers in the United States have few chemical control tools to selectively remove nuisance fish. This study examined whether Antimycin–A (antimycin) wax encapsulated microparticles could cause selective lethality in invasive carps. The antimycin microparticles were selective toward bighead carp ( Hypophthalmichthys nobilis ) and silver carp ( Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) across multiple experimental scales. Microparticles applied in experimental pond studies caused approximately 50 percent lethality in invasive carp. Effluent pond studies performed at Rathbun Fish Hatchery (Moravia, Iowa) caused silver carp lethality at a lower rate than previous pond or laboratory studies (approximately 1 percent); however, minimal effects on other fish species were observed. The antimycin microparticle formulation shows the ability to cause lethality in filter-feeding invasive carp relative to other fish species and demonstrated the plausibility for delivering a typically nonselective toxicant in a selective manner to specific species based on their physiological feeding traits.

Open-File Report

Raptor nest-site use in relation to the proximity of coalbed methane development

Raptor nest–site use in relation to the proximity of coalbed–methane development. Energy development such as coalbed–methane (CBM) extraction is a major land use with largely unknown consequences for many animal species. Some raptor species may be especially vulnerable to habitat changes due to energy development given their ecological requirements and population trajectories. Using 12,977 observations of 3,074 nests of 12 raptor species across nine years (2003–2011) in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming, USA, we evaluated relationships between raptor nest–site use and CBM development. Our objectives were to determine temporal trends in nest–use rates, and whether nest–site use was related to the proximity of CBM development. Across the study area, nest–use rates varied across species and years in a non–linear fashion. We developed a novel randomization test to assess differences in use between nests at developed and undeveloped sites, while controlling for annual variation in nest–site use. Red–tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis), burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia), and long–eared owls (Asio otus) used nests in undeveloped areas more than nests in developed areas (i.e. nests near CBM development). Differences between development groups were equivocal for the remaining nine species; however, we caution that we likely had lower statistical power to detect differences for rarer species. Our findings suggest potential avoidance of nesting in areas near CBM development by some species and reveal that CBM effects may be fairly consistent across distances between 400–2,415 m from wells. Future work should consider habitat preferences and fitness outcomes, and control for other key factors such as local prey availability, raptor densities, and weather.

Wyoming

Discovery and genomic characterization of a novel hepadnavirus from asymptomatic anadromous alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus)

The alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus) is an anadromous herring that inhabits waters of northeastern North America. This prey species is a critical forage for piscivorous birds, mammals, and fishes in estuarine and oceanic ecosystems. During a discovery project tailored to identify potentially emerging pathogens of this species, we obtained the full genome of a novel hepadnavirus (ApHBV) from clinically normal alewives collected from the Maurice River, Great Egg Harbor River, and Delaware River in New Jersey, USA during 2015–2018. This previously undescribed hepadnavirus contained a circular DNA genome of 3146 nucleotides. Phylogenetic analysis of the polymerase protein placed this virus in the clade of metahepadnaviruses (family: Hepadnaviridae ; genus: Metahepadnavirus ). There was no evidence of pathology in the internal organs of infected fish and virions were not observed in liver tissues by electron microscopy. We developed a Taqman-based quantitative (qPCR) assay and screened 182 individuals collected between 2015 and 2018 and detected additional qPCR positives (n = 6). An additional complete genome was obtained in 2018 and it has 99.4% genome nucleotide identity to the first virus. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms were observed between the two genomes, including 7/9 and 12/8 synonymous vs nonsynonymous mutations across the polymerase and surface proteins, respectively. While there was no evidence that this virus was associated with disease in this species, alewives are migratory interjurisdictional fishes of management concern. Identification of microbial agents using de novo sequencing and other advanced technologies is a critical aspect of understanding disease ecology for informed population management.

New Jersey

A review of differentiation in Great Lakes ciscoes

Seven species of ciscoes (Coregonus, subgenus Leucichthys) were found in the Great Lakes as recently as the early 1950's. Variation within and among species of Great Lakes ciscoes indicates that much of the divergence occurred within lakes. Following postglacial colonization by perhaps two or three species, population differentiation began with homing and reproduction at different localities and times. Physiological interaction between temperature (depth) and maturation time, as well as behavioral tendencies to home to spawning grounds and mate with related individuals, are the basis of premating reproductive separation. Phenotypic differences between populations indicate that ecological character displacement has been an important mechanism in the divergence. Introgression has obscured morphological species boundaries at the same time as intralacustrine speciation has created local subgroups, providing an unresolvable conflict between species definitions based on morphological and other characters and definitions dominated by inferred reproductive isolation. Species should be considered as the smallest diagnosable units within a phylogenetic framework, in which diagnoses are strictly by derived characters. Ecological and seasonal species could be recognized by application of a trinomial, equivalent to the subspecies trinomial.

Polskie Archiwum Hydrobiologii

Population assessment and potential functional roles of native mussels in the Upper Hudson River

General Electric Company (GE) directly and indirectly released polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) into the Hudson River and the surrounding environment starting in the late 1940’s, making it one of the most PCB-contaminated rivers in North America. Source control at two GE plant sites was implemented in 2009 to stem the influx of PCBs into the river (NYSDEC 2004; Farrar 2013; NYSDEC 2015). The Hudson River, like many other rivers, contains populations of native freshwater mussels—a group of animals that perform vital functions in freshwater systems. While there was anecdotal evidence of mussels residing in the Upper Hudson River (north of Troy, NY; GE 2005, GE 2009), quantitative data on mussel assemblages was lacking. Systematic, quantitative surveys for native mussels were completed in 2013 and 2015 in a total of six pools of the Upper Hudson River including one reference pool (Feeder Dam) located upstream of the former GE plant sites and five contaminated pools downstream of the GE plant sites (Thompson Island, Fort Miller, Northumberland, Stillwater, and Upper Mechanicville). Surveys were designed to estimate species composition, relative abundance, population size, population structure, and ecological services (i.e., biomass and filtration) of mussel communities prior to and after remedial actions to remove PCB contaminated sediments (i.e., dredged and subsequently capped or backfilled). In most pools, the experimental design incorporated stratification on remediated (before or after remedial activities were completed) and non-remediated areas. ... (access to the full abstract is restricted)

New York

Perceptions of conservation introduction to inform decision support among U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service employees

Executive Summary Around the globe, fish and wildlife managers are facing increasingly complex management issues because of multiscale ecological effects like climate change, species invasion, and land-use change. Managers seeking to prevent extinctions or preserve ecosystems are increasingly considering more interventionist techniques to overcome the resulting changes. Among those techniques, translocation methods that intentionally move species into new, less impacted habitats are being considered. These types of translocations are known by a range of terms, including “managed relocation” and “assisted migration,” but the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Species Survival Commission (IUCN SSC, 2013) has proposed “conservation introduction” (CI) as a standard term. As defined by the IUCN SSC, CI is the intentional movement of a species or population outside its indigenous range for conservation purposes. CI can be divided into two forms: assisted colonization and ecological replacement. Assisted colonization is moving species outside its indigenous range to prevent extinction or extirpation of a population. Ecological replacement is moving species to fulfill an important niche that is necessary within an ecosystem. Proponents suggest these methods are necessary to address the ecological challenges managers are trying to overcome. Opponents point out the potential for species to become invasive, introduce disease or parasites, and cause other cascading impacts throughout the ecosystem. The result is controversy and disagreement. As such, it will be imperative to develop clear guidelines and best practices to be followed within wildlife management agencies to prevent potential To this end, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop the current project. The intent was to describe the perceptions of USFWS personnel across many aspects of CI so that the USFWS could use this information in the planning and development of their own internal decision-support framework for CI. This report is presented in five sections. Section 1 introduces the project and provides an in-depth overview of background literature related to CI. Section 2 describes the study design, methods, and study participant characteristics. Section 3 describes key results and recommendations related to the development of a USFWS decision framework. Section 4 investigates a range of perceptions held by participants and establishes baseline information for how USFWS personnel may view CI and its application. Types of viewpoints surveyed include preferred terms and definitions, perceived barriers, perceived risks and tradeoffs, and aspects of success. Perceived barriers refers to factors that may prevent successful implementation of CI and perceived risks refers to potential negative outcomes that may occur as a result of implementing CI. Section 5 provides an overview of our conclusions for this project. Overall, we found that CI is likely to be viewed positively within the USFWS, but employees offered cautions and caveats. Most participants we interviewed feel that it is a necessary tool that will be indispensable in certain situations but also feel that there is more risk associated than with more traditional methods. For this reason, many participants are concerned about the assessment and planning that should be conducted prior to any CI effort. Our results indicate that many USFWS personnel will be open to CI being adopted more regularly but will be looking for clear guidance on how it should be implemented.

Scientific Investigations Report

Spring migration ecology of the mid-continent sandhill crane population with an emphasis on use of the Central Platte River Valley, Nebraska

We conducted a 10-year study (1998–2007) of the Mid-Continent Population (MCP) of sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) to identify spring-migration corridors, locations of major stopovers, and migration chronology by crane breeding affiliation (western Alaska–Siberia [WA–S], northern Canada–Nunavut [NC–N], west-central Canada–Alaska [WC–A], and east-central Canada–Minnesota [EC–M]). In the Central Platte River Valley (CPRV) of Nebraska, we evaluated factors influencing staging chronology, food habits, fat storage, and habitat use of sandhill cranes. We compared our findings to results from the Platte River Ecology Study conducted during 1978–1980. We determined spring migration corridors used by the breeding affiliations (designated subpopulations for management purposes) by monitoring 169 cranes marked with platform transmitter terminals (PTTs). We also marked and monitored 456 cranes in the CPRV with very high frequency (VHF) transmitters to evaluate length and pattern of stay, habitat use, and movements. An estimated 42% and 58% of cranes staging in the CPRV were greater sandhill cranes (G. c. tabida) and lesser sandhill cranes (G. c. canadensis), and they stayed for an average of 20 and 25 days (2000–2007), respectively. Cranes from the WA–S, NC–N, WC–A, and EC–M affiliations spent an average of 72, 77, 52, and 53 days, respectively, in spring migration of which 28, 23, 24, and 18 days occurred in the CPRV. The majority of the WA–S subpopulation settled in the CPRV apparently because of inadequate habitat to support more birds upstream, although WA–S cranes accounted for >90% of birds staging in the North Platte River Valley. Crane staging duration in the CPRV was negatively correlated with arrival dates; 92% of cranes stayed >7 days. A program of annual mechanical removal of mature stands of woody growth and seedlings that began in the early 1980s primarily in the main channel of the Platte River has allowed distribution of crane roosts to remain relatively stable over the past 2 decades. Most cranes returned to nocturnal roost sites used in previous years. Corn residues dominated the diet of sandhill cranes in the CPRV, as in the 1970s, despite a marked decline in standing crop of corn residues. Only 14% (10 of 74) of PTT-marked migrant cranes stayed at stopovers for ≥5 days before arriving in the CPRV, which limited the contribution of sites south of the CPRV for fat accumulation needed for migration and reproduction. Body masses of cranes (after adjusting for body size [an index of fat]) at arrival in the CPRV varied widely among years (1998–2006), indicating the importance of maintaining productive habitats on the wintering grounds to condition cranes for migration and reproduction. Average rates of fat gain by adult females while in the CPRV remained similar from 1978–1979 to 1998–1999 but declined among males. Distances cranes flew to feeding grounds in the CPRV increased as the percentage of cropland planted to soybeans increased and as density of cranes on nocturnal roosts increased. These results suggest that as habitats of limited or no value to cranes increase on the landscape, more flight time and higher maintenance costs may reduce fat storage. An estimated 40% of diurnal use occurred north of Interstate 80 (I-80) where ≤5% of lands dedicated to crane conservation are located. Seventy-four and 40% of PTT-marked EC–M and WC–A cranes had spring migrations that included staging in eastern South Dakota for an average of 11 and 10 days, respectively. Cranes of the NC–N, WA–S, and WC–A subpopulations staged an average of 25, 17, and 12 days in central and western Saskatchewan/eastern Alberta. Females in these affiliations increased their fat reserves after leaving Nebraska by an estimated 450, 451, and 452 g, respectively, underscoring the key role of these staging areas in preparing the 3 subpopulations for reproduction. After departing Nebraska, MCP cranes roosted primarily in basin wetlands. Most of these wetlands are in private ownership and lack adequate protection, emphasizing the need for effective laws and policies to ensure their long-term protection. The continued success of the current management goal of maintaining the MCP at approximately its current size and providing diverse recreational opportunities over a wide area of midcontinent and western North America is predicated on the ability of MCP cranes to continue to store large fat reserves in the CPRV in advance of breeding. For the CPRV to remain a key fat storage site, active channel maintenance (e.g., clearing of woody vegetation) likely will need to continue, along with establishing minimum stream flows. These actions would help ensure nocturnal roosting habitat remains sufficiently dispersed to provide cranes with daily intake of high-energy food adequate for major fat storage and limit risk of high mortality from storms and disease. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Nebraska

Mortality estimate of Chinese mystery snail, Bellamya chinensis (Reeve, 1863) in a Nebraska reservoir

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species found throughout the USA. Little is known about this species’ life history or ecology, and only one population estimate has been published, for Wild Plum Lake in southeast Nebraska. A recent die-off event occurred at this same reservoir and we present a mortality estimate for this B. chinensis population using a quadrat approach. Assuming uniform distribution throughout the newly-exposed lake bed (20,900 m 2 ), we estimate 42,845 individuals died during this event, amounting to approximately 17% of the previously-estimated population size of 253,570. Assuming uniform distribution throughout all previously-reported available habitat (48,525 m 2 ), we estimate 99,476 individuals died, comprising 39% of the previously-reported adult population. The die-off occurred during an extreme drought event, which was coincident with abnormally hot weather. However, the exact reason of the die-off is still unclear. More monitoring of the population dynamics of B. chinensis is necessary to further our understanding of this species’ ecology.

Nebraska

Using structured decision making to incorporate ecological and social values into harvest decisions: Case studies of white-tailed deer and walleye

Harvest decisions for fish and wildlife populations often include conflicting ecological, economic, and social values. Using decision analysis, such as structured decision making and adaptive management, as a framework to aid decision makers in multi-objective decision making for setting harvest regulations can lead to a more transparent and resilient decision. The process includes opportunities for inclusion of stakeholders’ concerns, either through multi-party workshops or the use of social science techniques to elicit objectives (i.e., values) and predict consequences of management actions. The authors present two case studies of using decision analysis to determine stakeholders’ objectives, identify alternative harvest strategies, predict the consequences of these alternatives on all objectives, and analyze tradeoffs among objectives. A case study of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in New York State provides an example of combining predictive population modeling and implementation of survey instruments statewide to determine optimal region-specific harvest regulations. Harvest management of walleye ( Sander vitreus ) provides an example of the inclusion of commercial and recreational angler groups in a series of workshops to make decisions about harvest quotas for one of the world’s largest freshwater fisheries.

Book chapter

Patterns of zero and nonzero counts suggest spatiotemporal distributions, aggregation, and dispersion of invasive carp

Bigheaded carp Hypophthalmichthys spp. are invasive species native to Asia expanding in the Mississippi River Basin in North America. An understanding of spatiotemporal distribution and aggregation of invasive carp is key to establishing when and where to focus surveillance designed to monitor expansion, and to managing harvest programs designed to curb population densities. We applied a two-stage hurdle model to assess three aspects of bigheaded carp ecology: distribution, relative abundance, and aggregation. Stage 1 was a binary 0/1 model that represented fish presence (p), and stage 2 was a truncated count distribution that had no zeros and included counts ≥ 1 only (C). Estimates of p and C varied temporally and spatially, but not in harmony and sometimes in opposing directions, indicating temporal and spatial swings in fish distributions and aggregations. Intense fish aggregations in channels in spring shown by low p’s and high C’s, eventually scattered by summer and fall as shown by high p’s and low C’s. An alternative but complementary interpretation of our observations is that p indexes incidence of aggregations and C indexes size of aggregations. Partitioning catch into its zero and nonzero components provided insight into population ecology that can inform development of monitoring and management of harvesting programs targeted at lessening potential effects of the invasion.

Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Car

Movement dynamics influence population monitoring and adaptive harvest management strategies in migratory birds

Informed population monitoring efforts are essential for sound management of harvested species, and adaptive strategies that provide detailed information to monitoring efforts often require data inputs from complimentary sources. Movement ecology information is seldom directly incorporated into population monitoring or adaptive harvest management strategies, yet can provide valuable information on species distributions, emigration and immigration rates, and aid in determining optimal population monitoring timing. The Rocky Mountain Population (RMP) of Sandhill Cranes is a harvested population subject to a stringent adaptive harvest management framework and an annual aerial survey to estimate population abundance, but movements of Sandhill Cranes during survey windows, and subsequent changes to harvest quotas based on their movement and distribution have not been investigated. We used seven years of GPS tracking data to estimate state-specific emigration and immigration rates, using a Bayesian multi-state capture-recapture model, among states within the RMP distribution to understand how seasonal crane movements may influence optimal aerial survey timing. We then leveraged these transition probabilities in conjunction with aerial survey count data to model how changes in aerial survey timing and movement-informed crane distribution would influence the current RMP Sandhill Crane adaptive harvest management model resulting in estimated changes to harvest allocation among states based on Sandhill Crane movement. We found that Sandhill Crane emigration from northern states began to increase the week of the aerial survey in late September, and continued to increase as autumn migration progressed into October. As expected, immigration to southern states began as emigration from northern states increased. Importantly, little movement among states occurred prior to the current aerial survey design timing. Overall, we found that current survey timing and shortly thereafter (∼1 week) did not greatly influence estimates of Sandhill Crane distribution, and did not greatly influence the harvest reallocation to each state until mid to late October (range of −42–+52 tag allocation change), much later than the current survey design would allow. Using GPS locations, we found that optimal population monitoring efforts could be improved to account for both detection and seasonal movements, while minimally influencing current adaptive harvest management strategies to stakeholders. Linking movement ecology with population monitoring efforts and subsequently adaptive harvest management strategies yields insightful information that can be beneficial for conservation planning, decision-making, and optimal species management of a migratory bird.

Colorado, Idaho, Montaha, Utah, Wyoming

An integrated path for spatial capture–recapture and animal movement modeling

Ecologists and conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial capture–recapture (SCR) and movement modeling to study animal populations. Historically, SCR has focused on population-level processes (e.g., vital rates, abundance, density, and distribution), whereas animal movement modeling has focused on the behavior of individuals (e.g., activity budgets, resource selection, migration). Even though animal movement is clearly a driver of population-level patterns and dynamics, technical and conceptual developments to date have not forged a firm link between the two fields. Instead, movement modeling has typically focused on the individual level without providing a coherent scaling from individual- to population-level processes, whereas SCR has typically focused on the population level while greatly simplifying the movement processes that give rise to the observations underlying these models. In our view, the integration of SCR and animal movement modeling has tremendous potential for allowing ecologists to scale up from individuals to populations and advancing the types of inferences that can be made at the intersection of population, movement, and landscape ecology. Properly accounting for complex animal movement processes can also potentially reduce bias in estimators of population-level parameters, thereby improving inferences that are critical for species conservation and management. This introductory article to the Special Feature reviews recent advances in SCR and animal movement modeling, establishes a common notation, highlights potential advantages of linking individual-level (Lagrangian) movements to population-level (Eulerian) processes, and outlines a general conceptual framework for the integration of movement and SCR models. We then identify important avenues for future research, including key challenges and potential pitfalls in the developments and applications that lie ahead.

Ecology

Fort Collins Science Center: Species and Habitats of Federal Interest

Ecosystem changes directly affect a wide variety of plant and animal species, floral and faunal communities, and groups of species such as amphibians and grassland birds. Appropriate management of public lands plays a crucial role in the conservation and recovery of endangered species and can be a key element in preventing a species from being listed under the Endangered Species Act. The Species and Habitats of Federal Interest Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) conducts research on the ecology, habitat requirements, distribution and abundance, population dynamics, and genetics and systematics of many species facing threatened or endangered status or of special concern to resource management agencies. FORT scientists develop reintroduction and restoration techniques, technologies for monitoring populations, and novel methods to analyze data on population trends and habitat requirements. FORT expertise encompasses both traditional and specialized natural resource disciplines within wildlife biology, including population dynamics, animal behavior, plant and community ecology, inventory and monitoring, statistics and computer applications, conservation genetics, stable isotope analysis, and curatorial expertise.

Fact Sheet

A decade of death and other dynamics: Deepening perspectives on the diversity and distribution of sea stars and wasting

Mass mortality events provide valuable insight into biological extremes and also ecological interactions more generally. The sea star wasting epidemic that began in 2013 catalyzed study of the microbiome, genetics, population dynamics, and community ecology of several high-profile species inhabiting the northeastern Pacific but exposed a dearth of information on the diversity, distributions, and impacts of sea star wasting for many lesser-known sea stars and a need for integration across scales. Here, we combine datasets from single-site to coast-wide studies, across time lines from weeks to decades, for 65 species. We evaluated the impacts of abiotic characteristics hypothetically associated with sea star wasting (sea surface temperature, pelagic primary productivity, upwelling wind forcing, wave exposure, freshwater runoff) and species characteristics (depth distribution, developmental mode, diet, habitat, reproductive period). We find that the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak clearly affected a little over a dozen species, primarily intertidal and shallow subtidal taxa, causing instantaneous wasting prevalence rates of 5%–80%. Despite the collapse of some populations within weeks, environmental and species variation protracted the outbreak, which lasted 2–3 years from onset until declining to chronic background rates of ∼2% sea star wasting prevalence. Recruitment began immediately in many species, and in general, sea star assemblages trended toward recovery; however, recovery was heterogeneous, and a marine heatwave in 2019 raised concerns of a second decline. The abiotic stressors most associated with the 2010s sea star wasting outbreak were elevated sea surface temperature and low wave exposure, as well as freshwater discharge in the north. However, detailed data speaking directly to the biological, ecological, and environmental cause(s) and consequences of the sea star wasting outbreak remain limited in scope, unavoidably retrospective, and perhaps always indeterminate. Redressing this shortfall for the future will require a broad spectrum of monitoring studies not less than the taxonomically broad cross-scale framework we have modeled in this synthesis.

Biological Bulletin