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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2013

Human effects on the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, central Arizona, 1910–2005 and 2005–2110, using a regional groundwater flow model

Water budgets were developed for the Verde Valley of central Arizona in order to evaluate the degree to which human stresses have affected the hydrologic system and might affect it in the future. The Verde Valley is a portion of central Arizona wherein concerns have been raised about water availability, particularly perennial base flow of the Verde River. The Northern Arizona Regional Groundwater Flow Model (NARGFM) was used to generate the water budgets and was run in several configurations for the 1910–2005 and 2005–2110 time periods. The resultant water budgets were subtracted from one another in order to quantify the relative changes that were attributable solely to human stresses; human stresses included groundwater withdrawals and incidental and artificial recharge but did not include, for example, human effects on the global climate. Three hypothetical and varied conditions of human stresses were developed and applied to the model for the 2005–2110 period. On the basis of this analysis, human stresses during 1910–2005 were found to have already affected the hydrologic system of the Verde Valley, and human stresses will continue to affect the hydrologic system during 2005–2110. Riparian evapotranspiration decreased and underflow into the Verde Valley increased because of human stresses, and net groundwater discharge to the Verde River in the Verde Valley decreased for the 1910–2005 model runs. The model also showed that base flow at the upstream end of the study area, as of 2005, was about 4,900 acre-feet per year less than it would have been in the absence of human stresses. At the downstream end of the Verde Valley, base flow had been reduced by about 10,000 acre-feet per year by the year 2005 because of human stresses. For the 2005–2110 period, the model showed that base flow at the downstream end of the Verde Valley may decrease by an additional 5,400 to 8,600 acre-feet per year because of past, ongoing, and hypothetical future human stresses. The process known as capture (or streamflow depletion caused by the pumping of groundwater) was the reason for these human-stress-induced changes in water-budget components.

Arizona↗
USGS2010

Santa Barbara Basin diatom and silicoflagellate response to global climate anomalies during the past 2200 years

Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) diatom and silicoflagellate assemblages are quantified from a box core record spanning AD 1940-2001 and an Ocean Drilling Program Hole 893A record from ???220 BC to AD 1880. The combined relative abundance of the diatoms Fragilariopsis doliolus and Nitzschia interrupteseriata from continuous two-year sampling intervals in the box core varies with sea surface temperature (SST), suggesting its utility in SST reconstruction. The assemblage data from the ODP 893A record indicate a broad interval of generally cooler SSTs between ???AD 800 and 1350, which corresponds to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), a period of generally warmer temperatures across other regions of the northern hemisphere. The assemblages also indicate an interval of generally warmer SSTs between ???AD 1400 and 1800, a period of otherwise global cooling referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA). The changes in assemblages of diatoms and silicoflagellates support the hypothesis that the widespread droughts of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the Western US were associated with cooler eastern North Pacific SST. The box core assemblages have higher percentages of tropical and subtropical compared to temperate and subpolar species than the ODP samples, reflecting a response of phytoplankton communities to an unusual 20th century warming. Pseudonitzschia australis, a diatom linked with domoic acid production, begins to become more common (>3% of the diatom assemblage) in the box core only after AD 1985, suggesting a link to anthropogenic activity. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Quaternary International↗
USGS2017

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
USGS2019

Prediction of ice‐free conditions for a perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lake

Although perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have middepth temperature maxima can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled the ice thickness of the west lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica, based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗
USGS2020

Looking forward, looking back: Building resilience today Training one report. International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK, April 16-18, 2019

The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC), in partnership with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association (APIA), designed the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project (hereafter BRT) as a series of trainings and workshops with tribal community leadership and members to collaboratively develop the western science knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge necessary for tribal community adaptation plans. Rather than replicate existing tribally-focused climate adaptation training in Alaska, this pilot project sought to include a range of best practices in education, specifically in climate science and tribal engagement, and builds upon the experience and expertise of the partner teams and communities, the facilitating team, and subject-matter experts. The project had three phases related to its title and structure. The core idea of the Looking Forward, Looking Back: Building Resilience Today project is to include multiple knowledges into adaptation plans that result in resilient communities. Looking Forward refers to the need to plan for our rapidly changing climate by critically considering current and future projected climate and its impacts on the community and Tribe. Looking Back refers to the need for any realistic tribal planning process, and subsequent planning document, to be grounded in Indigenous and local knowledge. The overarching goal of Building Resilience Today is to introduce planning tools that strengthen community capacity to plan for the future, while maintaining important values grounded in the past. Training One: The goal of the first training was to bring the cohort of community members and project team members together to work in teams to gain a common understanding of local climate impacts and longer-term climate projections at the local, regional, statewide, Arctic, and global level.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Synoptic analysis of a decade of daily measurements of SO2 emission in the troposphere from volcanoes of the global ground-based Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change

Volcanic plumes are common and far-reaching manifestations of volcanic activity during and between eruptions. Observations of the rate of emission and composition of volcanic plumes are essential to recognize and, in some cases, predict the state of volcanic activity. Measurements of the size and location of the plumes are important to assess the impact of the emission from sporadic or localized events to persistent or widespread processes of climatic and environmental importance. These observations provide information on volatile budgets on Earth, chemical evolution of magmas, and atmospheric circulation and dynamics. Space-based observations during the last decades have given us a global view of Earth's volcanic emission, particularly of sulfur dioxide ( SO 2 ). Although none of the satellite missions were intended to be used for measurement of volcanic gas emission, specially adapted algorithms have produced time-averaged global emission budgets. These have confirmed that tropospheric plumes, produced from persistent degassing of weak sources, dominate the total emission of volcanic SO 2 . Although space-based observations have provided this global insight into some aspects of Earth's volcanism, it still has important limitations. The magnitude and short-term variability of lower-atmosphere emissions, historically less accessible from space, remain largely uncertain. Operational monitoring of volcanic plumes, at scales relevant for adequate surveillance, has been facilitated through the use of ground-based scanning differential optical absorption spectrometer (ScanDOAS) instruments since the beginning of this century, largely due to the coordinated effort of the Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change (NOVAC). In this study, we present a compilation of results of homogenized post-analysis of measurements of SO 2 flux and plume parameters obtained during the period March 2005 to January 2017 of 32 volcanoes in NOVAC. This inventory opens a window into the short-term emission patterns of a diverse set of volcanoes in terms of magma composition, geographical location, magnitude of emission, and style of eruptive activity. We find that passive volcanic degassing is by no means a stationary process in time and that large sub-daily variability is observed in the flux of volcanic gases, which has implications for emission budgets produced using short-term, sporadic observations. The use of a standard evaluation method allows for intercomparison between different volcanoes and between ground- and space-based measurements of the same volcanoes. The emission of several weakly degassing volcanoes, undetected by satellites, is presented for the first time. We also compare our results with those reported in the literature, providing ranges of variability in emission not accessible in the past. The open-access data repository introduced in this article will enable further exploitation of this unique dataset, with a focus on volcanological research, risk assessment, satellite-sensor validation, and improved quantification of the prevalent tropospheric component of global volcanic emission.

Earth System Science Data↗
USGS2022

Fifty years of Landsat science and impacts

Since 1972, the Landsat program has been continually monitoring the Earth, to now provide 50 years of digital, multispectral, medium spatial resolution observations. Over this time, Landsat data were crucial for many scientific and technical advances. Prior to the Landsat program, detailed, synoptic depictions of the Earth's surface were rare, and the ability to acquire and work with large datasets was limited. The early years of the Landsat program delivered a series of technological breakthroughs, pioneering new methods, and demonstrating the ability and capacity of digital satellite imagery, creating a template for other global Earth observation missions and programs. Innovations driven by the Landsat program have paved the way for subsequent science, application, and policy support activities. The economic and scientific value of the knowledge gained through the Landsat program has been long recognized, and despite periods of funding uncertainty, has resulted in the program's 50 years of continuity, as well as substantive and ongoing improvements to payload and mission performance. Free and open access to Landsat data, enacted in 2008, was unprecedented for medium spatial resolution Earth observation data and substantially increased usage and led to a proliferation of science and application opportunities. Here, we highlight key developments over the past 50 years of the Landsat program that have influenced and changed our scientific understanding of the Earth system. Major scientific and programmatic impacts have been realized in the areas of agricultural crop mapping and water use, climate change drivers and impacts, ecosystems and land cover monitoring, and mapping the changing human footprint. The introduction of Landsat collection processing, coupled with the free and open data policy, facilitated a transition in Landsat data usage away from single images and towards time series analyses over large areas and has fostered the widespread use of science-grade data. The launch of Landsat-9 on September 27, 2021, and the advanced planning of its successor mission, Landsat-Next, underscore the sustained institutional support for the program. Such support and commitment to continuity is recognition of both the historic impact the program, and the future potential to build upon Landsat's remarkable 50-year legacy.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2015

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models by global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: a case study for submerged aquatic vegetation

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are commonly used to predict habitat quality and species distributions and are used to develop biological surveys, assess reserve and management priorities, and anticipate possible change under different management or climate change scenarios. Important management decisions may be based on model results, often without a clear understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with model outputs. We present an integrated methodology to assess the propagation of uncertainty from both inputs and structure of the HSI models on model outputs (uncertainty analysis: UA) and relative importance of uncertain model inputs and their interactions on the model output uncertainty (global sensitivity analysis: GSA). We illustrate the GSA/UA framework using simulated hydrology input data from a hydrodynamic model representing sea level changes and HSI models for two species of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in southwest Everglades National Park: Vallisneria americana (tape grass) and Halodule wrightii (shoal grass). We found considerable spatial variation in uncertainty for both species, but distributions of HSI scores still allowed discrimination of sites with good versus poor conditions. Ranking of input parameter sensitivities also varied spatially for both species, with high habitat quality sites showing higher sensitivity to different parameters than low-quality sites. HSI models may be especially useful when species distribution data are unavailable, providing means of exploiting widely available environmental datasets to model past, current, and future habitat conditions. The GSA/UA approach provides a general method for better understanding HSI model dynamics, the spatial and temporal variation in uncertainties, and the parameters that contribute most to model uncertainty. Including an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in modeling efforts as part of the decision-making framework will result in better-informed, more robust decisions.

Florida↗
USGS2019

Ross Ice Shelf response to climate driven by the tectonic imprint on seafloor bathymetry

Ocean melting has thinned Antarctica's ice shelves at an increasing rate over the past two decades, leading to loss of grounded ice. The Ross Ice Shelf is currently close to steady state but geological records indicate that it can disintegrate rapidly, which would accelerate grounded ice loss from catchments equivalent to 11.6 m of global sea level rise. Here, we use data from the ROSETTA-Ice airborne survey and new ocean simulations, to identify the principal threats to Ross Ice Shelf stability. We locate the tectonic boundary between East and West Antarctica from magnetic anomalies and use gravity data to generate a new high-resolution map of sub-ice-shelf bathymetry. The tectonic imprint on bathymetry constrains sub-ice-shelf ocean circulation, protecting the ice shelf grounding line from moderate changes in global ocean heat content. In contrast, local, seasonal production of warm upper-ocean water near the ice front drives rapid ice shelf melting east of Ross Island, where thinning would lead to faster grounded ice loss from both East and West Antarctic ice sheets. We confirm high modelled melt rates in this region using ROSETTA-Ice radar data. Our findings highlight the significance of both the tectonic framework and local ocean-atmosphere exchange processes near the ice front in determining the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2023

Blue carbon in a changing climate and a changing context

Blue carbon, a convenient term to encompass the climate mitigation value of coastal carbon dynamics, has received global policy attention and growing datasets to support management actions. Carbon stock assessments in mangroves, seagrass, and tidal marshes document significant carbon storage in soils. Models illustrate significant downward fluxes of carbon dioxide and limited methane emissions, making tidal wetland preservation and restoration notably potent for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Natural variation in different carbon stocks and fluxes has led to prioritization efforts to characterize coastal lands across physical and biological gradients. However, a larger concern beyond upscaling carbon dynamics is the resilience of these stocks and fluxes with global changes. Data-informed models have greatly improved our assessments of the vulnerability of soil and biomass stocks, greenhouse gas (GHG) balance, and spatial extents. Accelerated sea-level rise is increasingly concerning, but its impacts vary by resilience context, as very few coastal lands are without direct human impact. As the landscape context has changed, blue carbon fluxes have also shifted in terms of importance and distribution. New incentives for tidal ecosystem management are expanding boundaries to include algal carbon and tidal transport of alkalinity, which bring additional co-benefits to coastal waters. Using examples from the conterminous USA on blue carbon stocks, radiative balance, and extent, this chapter explores timelines of physical and biogeochemical stressors and their application to past, current, and future climate mitigation functions of coastal ecosystems.

Book chapter↗
USGS2024

Biogeochemical and community ecology responses to the wetting of non-perennial streams

Transitions between dry and wet hydrologic states are the defining characteristic of non-perennial rivers and streams, which constitute the majority of the global river network. Although past work has focused on stream drying characteristics, there has been less focus on how hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry respond and interact during stream wetting. Wetting mechanisms are highly variable and can range from dramatic floods and debris flows to gradual saturation by upwelling groundwater. This variation in wetting affects ecological and biogeochemical functions, including nutrient processing, sediment transport and the assembly of biotic communities. Here we synthesize evidence describing the hydrological mechanisms underpinning different types of wetting regimes, the associated biogeochemical and organismal responses, and the potential scientific and management implications for downstream ecosystems. This combined multidisciplinary understanding of wetting dynamics in non-perennial streams will be key to predicting and managing for the effects of climate change on non-perennial ecosystems.

Nature Water↗
USGS2009

Oblique Aerial Photography of the Arctic Coast of Alaska, Nulavik to Demarcation Point, August 7-10, 2006

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native American communities and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic and widespread; recent evidence suggests that erosion rates are among the highest in the world (up to ~16 m/yr) and may be accelerating. Coastal erosion adversely impacts energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native American communities. Climate change is thought to be a key component of recent environmental changes in the Arctic. Reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is one of the probable mechanisms responsible for increasing coastal exposure to wave attack and the resulting increase in erosion. Extended periods of permafrost melting and associated decrease in bluff cohesion and stability are another possible source of the increase in erosion. Several studies of selected areas on the Alaska coast document past shoreline positions and coastal change, but none have examined the entire North coast systematically. Results from these studies indicate high rates of coastal retreat that vary spatially along the coast. To address the need for a comprehensive and regionally consistent evaluation of shoreline change along the North coast of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of their Coastal and Marine Geology Program's (CMGP) National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study, is evaluating shoreline change from Peard Bay to the United States/Canadian border, using historical maps and photography and a standardized methodology that is consistent with other shoreline-change studies along the Nation's coastlines (for example, URL http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/ (last accessed March 2, 2009). This report contains photographs collected during an aerial-reconnaissance survey conducted in support of this study. An accompanying ESRI ArcGIS shape file (and plain-text copy) indicates the position of the aircraft and time when each photograph was taken. The USGS-CMGP Field Activity ID for the survey is A-1-06-AK, and more information on the survey and how to view the photographs using Google Earth software is available online at: URL http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a106ak/html/a-1-06-ak.meta.html (last accessed March 2, 2009).

Data Series↗
USGS2023

Adult spawners: A critical period for subarctic Chinook salmon in a changing climate

Concurrent, distribution-wide abundance declines of some Pacific salmon species, including Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), highlights the need to understand how vulnerability at different life stages to climate stressors affects population dynamics and fisheries sustainability. Yukon River Chinook salmon stocks are among the largest subarctic populations, near the northernmost extent of the species range. Existing research suggests that Yukon River Chinook salmon population dynamics are largely driven by factors occurring between the adult spawner life stage and their offspring's first summer at sea (second year post-hatching). However, specific mechanisms sustaining chronic poor productivity are unknown, and there is a tremendous sense of urgency to understand causes, as declines of these stocks have taken a serious toll on commercial, recreational, and indigenous subsistence fisheries. Therefore, we leveraged multiple existing datasets spanning parent and juvenile stages of life history in freshwater and marine habitats. We analyzed environmental data in association with the production of offspring that survive to the marine juvenile stage (juveniles per spawner). These analyses suggest more than 45% of the variability in the production of juvenile Chinook salmon is associated with river temperatures or water discharge levels during the parent spawning migration. Over the past two decades, parents that experienced warmer water temperatures and lower discharge in the mainstem Yukon River produced fewer juveniles per spawning adult. We propose the adult spawner life stage as a critical period regulating population dynamics. We also propose a conceptual model that can explain associations between population dynamics and climate stressors using independent data focused on marine nutrition and freshwater heat stress. It is sobering to consider that some of the northernmost Pacific salmon habitats may already be unfavorable to these cold-water species. Our findings have immediate implications, given the common assumption that northern ranges of Pacific salmon offer refugia from climate stressors.

Alaska↗
USGS2000

Orbital and suborbital variability in North Atlantic bottom water temperature obtained from deep-sea ostracod Mg/Ca ratios

Magnesium/calcium (Mg/Ca) ratios were measured in the deep-sea ostracod (Crustacea) genus Krithe from Chain core 82-24-4PC from the western mid-Atlantic Ridge (3427 m) in order to estimate ocean circulation and bottom water temperature (BWT) variability over the past 200,000 years. Mg/Ca ratios have been used as a paleothermometer because the ratios are controlled primarily by ambient water temperatures at the time the organism secretes its adult carapace. Over the past two glacial–interglacial cycles, Mg/Ca values oscillated between about 7 mmol/mol and 12 mmol/mol, equivalent to a BWT range of 0 to >3.5°C. The lowest values were obtained on specimens from glacial marine isotope stages (MISs) 2, 4 and 6; the highest values were obtained from specimens from the early part of the Holocene interglacial (MIS 1), and also from MISs 5 and 7. These trends suggest that BWTs in the North Atlantic Ocean fluctuate over orbital time scales. Suborbital variability in Mg/Ca ratios and BWT was also observed for the past 100,000 years. Ratios rose from ∼8 mmol/mol to ∼10 mmol/mol (implying a BWT increase of ∼1 to 3°C) during 14 Mg/Ca excursions. The highest ratios were found in Krithe dated at approximately 32, 36–38, 43, 48, 73, 85 and 93 ka. Although the age model for the Chain 82-24-4PC and temporal resolution do not allow precise correlation, some of these deep-sea bottom temperature excursions appear to correspond to Heinrich events recorded in other regions of the North Atlantic and perhaps Dansgaard–Oeschger interstadial events recorded in Greenland ice cores. If confirmed, this would support the hypothesis that millennial-scale oscillations of climate in the North Atlantic are capable of affecting global climate via thermohaline circulation changes.

Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology↗
USGS2010

Oblique Aerial Photography of the Arctic Coast of Alaska, Cape Sabine to Milne Point, July 16-19, 2009

The Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, an area of strategic economic importance to the United States, is home to remote Native American communities and encompasses unique habitats of global significance. Coastal erosion along the Arctic coast is chronic and widespread; recent evidence suggests that erosion rates are among the highest in the world (as high as ~16 m/yr) and may be accelerating. Coastal erosion adversely impacts energy-related infrastructure, natural shoreline habitats, and Native American communities. Climate change is thought to be a key component of recent environmental changes in the Arctic. Reduced sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is one of the probable mechanisms responsible for increasing coastal exposure to wave attack and the resulting increase in erosion. Extended periods of permafrost melting and associated decreases in bluff cohesion and stability are another possible source of the increase in erosion. Several studies of selected areas on the Alaska coast document past shoreline positions and coastal change, but none have examined the entire North coast systematically. Results from these studies indicate high rates of coastal retreat that vary spatially along the coast. To address the need for a comprehensive and regionally consistent evaluation of shoreline change along the North coast of Alaska, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of their Coastal and Marine Geology Program's (CMGP) National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study, is evaluating shoreline change from Peard Bay to the United States/Canadian border, using historical maps and photography and a standardized methodology that is consistent with other shoreline-change studies along the Nation's coastlines (see, for example, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/shoreline-change/, last accessed February 12, 2010). This is the second in a series of publications containing photographs collected during reconnaissance surveys conducted in support of the National Assessment of Shoreline Change Study. An accompanying ESRI ArcGIS shape file (and plaintext copy) indicates the position of the aircraft and time when each photograph was taken. The USGS-CMGP Field Activity ID for the survey is A-5-09-AK, and more information on the survey and how to view the photographs using Google Earth software is available online at http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a509ak/html/a-5-09-ak.photos.kmz (last accessed February 12, 2010). The initial report ?Oblique aerial photography of the Arctic coast of Alaska, Nulavik to Demarcation Point, August 7-10, 2006? is available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/436/, and the associated Google Earth .kmz file is available at http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/a/a106ak/html/a-1-06-ak.photos.kmz (last accessed February 12, 2010).

Data Series↗
USGS2025

Satellite-based evidence of recent decline in global forest recovery rate from tree mortality events

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.

Nature Plants↗
USGS2008

Evolution of Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, Nevada

The north-trending, 550-km-long Nevada segment of the Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, which fringed western North America, evidences the complex interaction of paleotectonics, eustasy, biotic changes, and bolide impact-related influences. Margin reconstruction is complicated by mid-Paleozoic to Paleogene compressional tectonics and younger extensional and strike-slip faulting. Reports published during the past three decades identify 12 important events that influenced development of shelf-margin settings; in chronological order, these are: (1) Early Devonian inheritance of Silurian stable shelf inargin, (2) formation of Early to early Middle 'Devonian shelf-margin basins, (3) propradation of later Middle Devonian shelf margin, (4) late Middle Devonian Taghanic ondap and continuing long-term Frasnian transgression, (5) initiation of latest Middle Devonian to early Frasnian proto-Antler orogenic forebulge, (6) mid-Frasnian Alamo Impact, (7) accelerated development of proto-Antler forebulge and backbulge Pilot basin, (8) global late Frasnian sentichatovae sea-level rise, (9) end-Frasnian sea-level fluctuations and ensuing mass extinction, (10) long-term Famennian regression and continept-wide erosion, (11) late Famennian emergence: of Ahtler orogenic highlands, and (12) end-Devonian eustatic sea-level fall. Although of considerable value for understanding facies relationships and geometries, existing standard carbonate platform-margin models developed for passive settings else-where do not adequately describe the diverse depositional and, structural settings along the Nevada Devonian platform margin. Recent structural and geochemical studies suggest that the Early to Middle Devonian-shelf-margin basins may have been fault-bound and controlled by inherited Precambrian structure. Subsequently, the migrating latest Middle to Late Devonian Antler orogenic forebulge exerted a dominant control on shelf-margin position, morphology, and sedimentation.

Nevada↗
USGS2001

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that inter-annual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980-94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year-to-year variations in net carbon storage for this region. 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model's results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9-Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2-Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin. 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability. 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO2 over the study period. This amount is large enough to have compensated for most of the carbon losses associated with tropical deforestation in the Amazon during the same period. 5 Comparisons with empirical data indicate that climate variability and CO2 fertilization explain most of the variation in net carbon storage for the undisturbed ecosystems. Our analyses suggest that assessment of the regional carbon budget in the tropics should be made over at least one cycle of El Nino-Southern Oscillation because of inter-annual climate variability. Our analyses also suggest that proper scaling of the site-specific and sub-annual measurements of carbon fluxes to produce Basin-wide flux estimates must take into account seasonal and spatial variations in net carbon storage.

Global Ecology and Biogeography↗