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At least 271 records · Page 15Linked to original sources
USGS2010

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Techniques and Methods↗
USGS2025

Ecological scenarios: Embracing ecological uncertainty in an era of global change

Scenarios, or plausible characterizations of the future, can help natural resource stewards plan and act under uncertainty. Current methods for developing scenarios for climate change adaptation planning are often focused on exploring uncertainties in future climate, but new approaches are needed to better represent uncertainties in ecological responses. Scenarios that characterize how ecological changes may unfold in response to climate and describe divergent and surprising ecological outcomes can help natural resource stewards recognize signs of nascent ecological transformation and identify opportunities to intervene. Here, we offer principles and approaches for more fully integrating ecological uncertainties into the development of future scenarios. We provide examples of how specific qualitative and quantitative methods can be used to explore variation in ecological responses to a given climate future. We further highlight opportunities for ecological researchers to generate actionable projections that capture uncertainty in both climatic and ecological change in meaningful and manageable ways to support climate change adaptation decision making.

Nebraska↗
USGS2010

Vegetation index methods for estimating evapotranspiration by remote sensing

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest term after precipitation in terrestrial water budgets. Accurate estimates of ET are needed for numerous agricultural and natural resource management tasks and to project changes in hydrological cycles due to potential climate change. We explore recent methods that combine vegetation indices (VI) from satellites with ground measurements of actual ET (ETa) and meteorological data to project ETa over a wide range of biome types and scales of measurement, from local to global estimates. The majority of these use time-series imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on the Terra satellite to project ET over seasons and years. The review explores the theoretical basis for the methods, the types of ancillary data needed, and their accuracy and limitations. Coefficients of determination between modeled ETa and measured ETa are in the range of 0.45–0.95, and root mean square errors are in the range of 10–30% of mean ETa values across biomes, similar to methods that use thermal infrared bands to estimate ETa and within the range of accuracy of the ground measurements by which they are calibrated or validated. The advent of frequent-return satellites such as Terra and planed replacement platforms, and the increasing number of moisture and carbon flux tower sites over the globe, have made these methods feasible. Examples of operational algorithms for ET in agricultural and natural ecosystems are presented. The goal of the review is to enable potential end-users from different disciplines to adapt these methods to new applications that require spatially-distributed ET estimates.

Surveys in Geophysics↗
USGS2015

Effects of simple acid leaching of crushed and powdered geological materials on high-precision Pb isotope analyses

We present new results of simple acid leaching experiments on the Pb isotope composition of USGS standard reference material powders and on ocean island basalt whole rock splits and powders. Rock samples were leached with cold 6 N HCl in an ultrasonic bath, then on a hot plate, and washed with ultrapure H 2 O before sample digestion in HF‐HNO 3 and chromatographic purification of Pb. Lead isotope analyses were measured by Tl‐doped MC‐ICPMS. Intrasession and intersession analytical reproducibilities of repeated analyses of both synthetic Pb solutions and Pb from single digests of chemically processed natural samples were generally better than 100 ppm (2 SD). The comparison of leached and unleached samples shows that leaching consistently removes variable amounts of contaminants that differ in Pb isotopic composition for different starting materials. For repeated digests of a single sample, analyses of leached samples reproduce better than those of unleached ones, confirming that leaching effectively removes most of the heterogeneously distributed extraneous Pb. Nevertheless, the external reproducibility of leached samples is still up to an order of magnitude worse than that of Pb solution standards (∼100 ppm). More complex leaching methods employed by earlier studies yield Pb isotope ratios within error of those produced by our method and at similar levels of reproducibility, demonstrating that our simple leaching method is as effective as more complex leaching techniques. Therefore, any Pb isotope heterogeneity among multiple leached digests of samples in excess of the external reproducibility is attributed to inherent isotopic heterogeneity of the sample. The external precision of ∼100 ppm (2 SD) achieved for Pb isotope ratio determination by Tl‐doped MC‐ICPMS is thus sufficient for most rocks. The full advantage of the most precise Pb isotope analytical methods is only realized in cases where the natural isotopic heterogeneity among samples in a studied suite is substantially below 100 ppm.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems↗
USGS2011

Comparison of Bayesian clustering and edge detection methods for inferring boundaries in landscape genetics

Recently, techniques available for identifying clusters of individuals or boundaries between clusters using genetic data from natural populations have expanded rapidly. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate these different techniques. We used spatially-explicit simulation models to compare three spatial Bayesian clustering programs and two edge detection methods. Spatially-structured populations were simulated where a continuous population was subdivided by barriers. We evaluated the ability of each method to correctly identify boundary locations while varying: (i) time after divergence, (ii) strength of isolation by distance, (iii) level of genetic diversity, and (iv) amount of gene flow across barriers. To further evaluate the methods’ effectiveness to detect genetic clusters in natural populations, we used previously published data on North American pumas and a European shrub. Our results show that with simulated and empirical data, the Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms outperformed direct edge detection methods. All methods incorrectly detected boundaries in the presence of strong patterns of isolation by distance. Based on this finding, we support the application of Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms for boundary detection in empirical datasets, with necessary tests for the influence of isolation by distance

International Journal of Molecular Sciences↗
USGS2014

A bootstrap estimation scheme for chemical compositional data with nondetects

The bootstrap method is commonly used to estimate the distribution of estimators and their associated uncertainty when explicit analytic expressions are not available or are difficult to obtain. It has been widely applied in environmental and geochemical studies, where the data generated often represent parts of whole, typically chemical concentrations. This kind of constrained data is generically called compositional data, and they require specialised statistical methods to properly account for their particular covariance structure. On the other hand, it is not unusual in practice that those data contain labels denoting nondetects, that is, concentrations falling below detection limits. Nondetects impede the implementation of the bootstrap and represent an additional source of uncertainty that must be taken into account. In this work, a bootstrap scheme is devised that handles nondetects by adding an imputation step within the resampling process and conveniently propagates their associated uncertainly. In doing so, it considers the constrained relationships between chemical concentrations originated from their compositional nature. Bootstrap estimates using a range of imputation methods, including new stochastic proposals, are compared across scenarios of increasing difficulty. They are formulated to meet compositional principles following the log-ratio approach, and an adjustment is introduced in the multivariate case to deal with nonclosed samples. Results suggest that nondetect bootstrap based on model-based imputation is generally preferable. A robust approach based on isometric log-ratio transformations appears to be particularly suited in this context. Computer routines in the R statistical programming language are provided.

Journal of Chemometrics↗
USGS2008

Applying the land use portfolio model to estimate natural-hazard loss and risk — A hypothetical demonstration for Ventura County, California

With costs of natural disasters skyrocketing and populations increasingly settling in areas vulnerable to natural hazards, society is challenged to better allocate its limited risk-reduction resources. In 2000, Congress passed the Disaster Mitigation Act, amending the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Pub. L. 93-288, 1988; Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002, 2008b; Disaster Mitigation Act, 2000), mandating that State, local, and tribal communities prepare natural-hazard mitigation plans to qualify for pre-disaster mitigation grants and post-disaster aid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was assigned to coordinate and implement hazard-mitigation programs, and it published information about specific mitigation-plan requirements and the mechanisms (through the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program-HMGP) for distributing funds (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2002). FEMA requires that each community develop a mitigation strategy outlining long-term goals to reduce natural-hazard vulnerability, mitigation objectives and specific actions to reduce the impacts of natural hazards, and an implementation plan for those actions. The implementation plan should explain methods for prioritizing, implementing, and administering the actions, along with a 'cost-benefit review' justifying the prioritization. FEMA, along with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS), supported the development of HAZUS ('Hazards U.S.'), a geospatial natural-hazards loss-estimation tool, to help communities quantify potential losses and to aid in the selection and prioritization of mitigation actions. HAZUS was expanded to a multiple-hazard version, HAZUS-MH, that combines population, building, and natural-hazard science and economic data and models to estimate physical damages, replacement costs, and business interruption for specific natural-hazard scenarios. HAZUS-MH currently performs analyses for earthquakes, floods, and hurricane wind. HAZUS-MH loss estimates, however, do not account for some uncertainties associated with the specific natural-hazard scenarios, such as the likelihood of occurrence within a particular time horizon or the effectiveness of alternative risk-reduction options. Because of the uncertainties involved, it is challenging to make informative decisions about how to cost-effectively reduce risk from natural-hazard events. Risk analysis is one approach that decision-makers can use to evaluate alternative risk-reduction choices when outcomes are unknown. The Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), is a geospatial scenario-based tool that incorporates hazard-event uncertainties to support risk analysis. The LUPM offers an approach to estimate and compare risks and returns from investments in risk-reduction measures. This paper describes and demonstrates a hypothetical application of the LUPM for Ventura County, California, and examines the challenges involved in developing decision tools that provide quantitative methods to estimate losses and analyze risk from natural hazards.

California↗
USGS2011

Abbreviated bibliography on energy development—A focus on the Rocky Mountain Region

Energy development of all types continues to grow in the Rocky Mountain Region of the western United States. Federal resource managers increasingly need to balance energy demands, effects on the natural landscape and public perceptions towards these issues. To assist in efficient access to valuable information, this abbreviated bibliography provides citations to relevant information for myriad of issues for which resource managers must contend. The bibliography is organized by seven large topics with various sup-topics: broad energy topics (energy crisis, conservation, supply and demand, etc.); energy sources (fossil fuel, nuclear, renewable, etc.); natural landscape effects (climate change, ecosystem, mitigation, restoration, and reclamation, wildlife, water, etc.); human landscape effects (attitudes and perceptions, economics, community effects, health, Native Americans, etc.); research and technology; international research; and, methods and modeling. A large emphasis is placed on the natural and human landscape effects.

Idaho;Montana;Wyoming;Utah;Colorado;New Mexico;Ari↗
USGS1986

THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL ASPECTS OF ISOTOPIC FRACTIONATION.

Essential to the interpretation of natural variations of light stable isotope ratios is knowledge of the magnitude and temperature dependence of isotopic fractionation factors between the common minerals and fluids. These fractionation factors are obtained in three ways: (1) Semi-empirical calculations using spectroscopic data and the methods of statistical mechanics. (2) Laboratory calibration studies. (3) Measurements of natural samples whose formation conditions are well-known or highly constrained. In this chapter methods (1) and (2) are evaluated and a review is given of the present state of knowledge of the theory of isotopic fractionation and the fraction that influence the isotopic properties of minerals.

Reviews in Mineralogy↗
USGS2006

Genetic analyses of captive Alala (Corvus hawaiiensis) using AFLP analyses

Population level studies of genetic diversity can provide information about population structure, individual genetic distinctiveness and former population size. They are especially important for rare and threatened species like the Alala, where they can be used to assess extinction risks and evolutionary potential. In an ideal situation multiple methods should be used to detect variation, and these methods should be comparable across studies. In this report, we discuss AFLP (Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism) as a genetic approach for detecting variation in the Alala , describe our findings, and discuss these in relation to mtDNA and microsatellite data reported elsewhere in this same population. AFLP is a technique for DNA fingerprinting that has wide applications. Because little or no prior knowledge of the particular species is required to carry out this method of analysis, AFLP can be used universally across varied taxonomic groups. Within individuals, estimates of diversity or heterozygosity across genomes may be complex because levels of diversity differ between and among genes. One of the more traditional methods of estimating diversity employs the use of codominant markers such as microsatellites. Codominant markers detect each allele at a locus independently. Hence, one can readily distinguish heterozygotes from homozygotes, directly assess allele frequencies and calculate other population level statistics. Dominant markers (for example, AFLP) are scored as either present or absent (null) so heterozygotes cannot be directly distinguished from homozygotes. However, the presence or absence data can be converted to expected heterozygosity estimates which are comparable to those determined by codominant markers. High allelic diversity and heterozygosity inherent in microsatellites make them excellent tools for studies of wild populations and they have been used extensively. One limitation to the use of microsatellites is that heterozygosity estimates are affected by the mutation rate at microsatellite loci, thus introducing a bias. Also, the number of loci that can be studied is frequently limited to fewer than 10. This theoretically represents a maximum of one marker for each of 10 chromosomes. Dominant markers like AFLP allow a larger fraction of the genome to be screened. Large numbers of loci can be screened by AFLP to resolve very small individual differences that can be used for identification of individuals, estimates of pairwise relatedness and, in some cases, for parentage analyses. Since AFLP is a dominant marker (can not distinguish between +/+ homozygote versus +/- heterozygote), it has limitations for parentage analyses. Only when both parents are homozygous for the absence of alleles (-/-) and offspring show a presence (+/+ or +/-) can the parents be excluded. In this case, microsatellites become preferable as they have the potential to exclude individual parents when the other parent is unknown. Another limitation of AFLP is that the loci are generally less polymorphic (only two alleles/locus) than microsatellite loci (often >10 alleles/locus). While generally fewer than 10 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci are enough to exclude and assign parentage, it might require up to 100 or more AFLP loci. While there are pros and cons to different methodologies, the total number of loci evaluated by AFLP generally offsets the limitations imposed due to the dominant nature of this approach and end results between methods are generally comparable. Overall objectives of this study were to evaluate the level of genetic diversity in the captive population of Alala, to compare genetic data with currently available pedigree information, and to determine the extent of relatedness of mating pairs and among founding individuals.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2002

Floristic quality assessment of one natural and three restored wetland complexes in North Dakota, USA

Floristic quality assessment is potentially an important tool for conservation efforts in the northern Great Plains of North America, but it has received little rigorous evaluation. Floristic quality assessments rely on coefficients assigned to each plant species of a region’s flora based on the conservatism of each species relative to others in the region. These “coefficients of conservatism” (C values) are assigned by a panel of experts familiar with a region’s flora. The floristic quality assessment method has faced some criticism due to the subjective nature of these assignments. To evaluate the effect of this subjectivity on floristic quality assessments, we performed separate evaluations of the native plant communities in a natural wetland complex and three restored wetland complexes. In our first assessment, we used C values assigned “subjectively” by the Northern Great Plains Floristic Quality Assessment Panel. We then performed an independent assessment using the observed distributions of species among a group of wetlands that ranged from highly disturbed to largely undisturbed (data-generated C values). Using the panel-assigned C values, mean C values ( C ¯ "> C ¯ C¯ ) of the restored wetlands rarely exceeded 3.4 and never exceeded 3.9, with the highest values occurring in the oldest restored complex; all but two wetlands in the natural wetland complex had a C ¯ "> C ¯ C¯ greater than 3.9. Floristic quality indices (FQI) for the restored wetlands rarely exceeded 22 and usually reached maximums closer to 19, with higher values occurring again in the oldest restored complex; only two wetlands in the natural complex had an FQI less than 22. We observed that 95% confidence limits for species richness and percent natives overlapped greatly among wetland complexes, whereas confidence limits for both C ¯ "> C ¯ C¯ and FQI overlapped little. C ¯ "> C ¯ C¯ and FQI values were consistently greater when we used the datagenerated C values than when we used the panel-assigned C values; nonetheless, conclusions reached based on these two independent assessment techniques were virtually identical. Our results are consistent with the opinion that coefficients assigned subjectively by expert botanists familiar with a region’s flora provide adequate information to perform accurate floristic quality assessments.

Wetlands↗
USGS2010

Geology, geochemistry, and geophysics of the Fry Canyon uranium/copper project site, southeastern Utah: Indications of contaminant migration

The Fry Canyon uranium/copper project site in San Juan County, southeastern Utah, was affected by the historical (1957–68) processing of uranium and copper-uranium ores. Relict uranium tailings and related ponds, and a large copper heap-leach pile at the site represent point sources of uranium and copper to local soils, surface water, and groundwater. This study was designed to establish the nature, extent, and pathways of contaminant dispersion. The methods used in this study are applicable at other sites of uranium mining, milling, or processing. The uranium tailings and associated ponds sit on a bench that is as much as 4.25 meters above the level of the adjacent modern channel of Fry Creek. The copper heap leach pile sits on bedrock just south of this bench. Contaminated groundwater from the ponds and other nearby sites moves downvalley and enters the modern alluvium of adjacent Fry Creek, its surface water, and also a broader, deeper paleochannel that underlies the modern creek channel and adjacent benches and stream terraces. The northern extent of contaminated groundwater is uncertain from geochemical data beyond an area of monitoring wells about 300 meters north of the site. Contaminated surface water extends to the State highway bridge. Some uranium-contaminated groundwater may also enter underlying bedrock of the Permian Cedar Mesa Sandstone along fracture zones. Four dc-resistivity surveys perpendicular to the valley trend were run across the channel and its adjacent stream terraces north of the heap-leach pile and ponds. Two surveys were done in a small field of monitoring wells and two in areas untested by borings to the north of the well field. Bedrock intercepts, salt distribution, and lithologic information from the wells and surface observations in the well field aided interpretation of the geophysical profiles there and allowed interpretation of the two profiles not tested by wells. The geophysical data for the two profiles to the north of the well field suggest that the paleochannel persists at least 900 m to the north of the heap leach and pond sites. Contamination of groundwater beneath the stream terraces may extend at least that far. Fry Creek surface water (six samples), seeps and springs (six samples), and wells (eight samples) were collected during a dry period of April 16–19, 2007. The most uranium-rich (18.7 milligrams per liter) well water on the site displays distinctive Ca-Mg-SO 4 -dominant chemistry indicating the legacy of heap leaching copper-uranium ores with sulfuric acid. This same water has strongly negative δ 34 S of sulfate (–13.3 per mil) compared to most local waters of –2.4 to –5.4 per mil. Dissolved uranium species in all sampled waters are dominantly U(VI)-carbonate complexes. All waters are undersaturated with respect to U(VI) minerals. The average 234 U/ 238 U activity ratio (AR) in four well waters from the site (0.939±0.011) is different from that of seven upstream waters (1.235±0.069). This isotopic contrast permits quantitative estimates of mixing of site-derived uranium with natural uranium in waters collected downstream. At the time of sampling, uranium in downstream surface water was mostly (about 67 percent) site-derived and subject to further concentration by evaporation. Three monitoring wells located approximately 0.4 kilometer downstream contained dominantly (78–87 percent) site-derived uranium. Distinctive particles of chalcopyrite (CuFeS) and variably weathered pyrite (FeS 2 ) are present in tailings at the stream edge on the site and are identified in stream sediments 1.3 kilometers downstream, based on inspection of polished grain mounts of magnetic mineral separates.

Utah↗
USGS2019

Natural hazards and mineral commodity supply: Quantifying risk of earthquake disruption to South American copper supply

Mineral resources, and their mining and enrichment operations, are not equally distributed across Earth. The concentration of mineral supply in certain regions, owing to the geology or geography of the mineral resource, raises the level of risk related to supply disruption. Where mineral production coincides with areas prone to natural hazards, supply may be especially at risk. However, the level of risk that natural hazards pose to mineral supply has yet to be quantified on a global or regional scale. Using copper in South America as a case study, this paper offers methods for quantifying (i) the coincidence of mineral production and seismic hazards, and (ii) the Expected Annual Disruption (EAD) of the mineral supply from earthquakes. The first of these methods indicates that, of the 101 copper producing facilities in South America considered, 76 are located within an area of high seismic hazard, taken here as the area with>85% chance of exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI earthquake shaking in 50 years. Collectively, the 76 facilities comprise 82%, 87%, and 91% of the 2015 South American mine production, smelter capacity, and refinery capacity, respectively. For each of the 101 facilities, the second method calculates the EAD using a full earthquake shaking hazard forecast at the location, the annualized copper production of the facility, and models of the vulnerability of that production to shaking. The EADs are summed by country, here within South America, as a demonstration of how supply risk could eventually be quantified globally. Consideration of two illustrative vulnerability models shows that future work is needed to determine percentages of disruption to mineral production for different levels of earthquake shaking. Ultimately, the methods presented herein could be applied to other mineral commodities and/or adapted for other natural hazards, and the resulting EADs could be summed. Results from these methods could be used to focus more detailed risk assessments where the risk is highest.

Resources Policy↗
USGS2013

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Hydrogeology Journal↗
USGS2005

Use of electric logs to estimate water quality of pre-tertiary aquifers

Electric logs provide a means of estimating ground-water quality in areas where water analyses are not available. Most of the methods for interpreting these logs have been developed for the petroleum industry and are most reliable in saline aquifers (concentration of dissolved solids as sodium chloride greater than about 50,000 mg/l). The resistivity-porosity and spontaneous-potential methods were evaluated to determine if they could be applied to identify zones of fresh water (concentration of dissolved solids as sodium chloride less than 1,000 mg/l) in three potential aquifers in central Wyoming. The potential aquifers have different lithologies–sandstone, clayey sandstone, and carbonate. The two methods generally were reliable predictors of water quality in the sandstone and carbonate potential aquifers. In the clayey sandstone potential aquifer, predictions of the dissolved-solids concentration using the two methods differed by more than an order of magnitude in several cases. When the resistivity values are corrected for the presence of clay and shale as identified on a natural gamma log, the agreement between the results of the two methods improved by an average of 58 percent.

Groundwater↗
USGS2018

Museum metabarcoding: a novel method revealing gut helminth communities of small mammals across space and time

Natural history collections spanning multiple decades provide fundamental historical baselines to measure and understand changing biodiversity. New technologies such as next generation DNA sequencing (NGS) have considerably increased the potential of museum specimens to address significant questions regarding the impact of environmental changes on host and parasite/pathogen dynamics. We developed a new technique to identify intestinal helminth parasites and applied it to shrews (Eulipotyphla: Soricidae) because they are ubiquitous, occupy diverse habitats, and host a diverse and abundant parasite fauna. Notably, we included museum specimens preserved in various ways to explore the efficacy of using metabarcoding analyses that may enable identification of helminth symbiont communities from historical archives. We successfully sequenced the parasite communities (using 12S mtDNA, 16S mtDNA, 28S rDNA) of 23 whole gastrointestinal (GI) tracts. All GI tracts were obtained from the Museum of Southwestern Biology (MSB), USA, and from recent field collections, varying both in time since fixation (ranging from 4 months to 16 years) and preservation method (70% or 95% ethanol stored at room temperature, or flash frozen in liquid nitrogen and stored at -80°C). Our proof of concept demonstrates the feasibility of applying NGS techniques to authoritatively identify the parasite/pathogen communities within whole GI tracts from museum specimens of varying age and fixation, and the value of future preservation of host-associated whole GI tracts in public research archives. This powerful approach facilitates future comparative examinations of the distributions and interactions among multiple associated groups of organisms through time and space.

International Journal for Parasitology↗
USGS2025

The future of biocontrol in the Anthropocene: A review of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents and their hosts

Biological control, the practice of using one species (biocontrol agent) to control the population of another (a host or prey species, hereafter target), can be a successful method to reduce pest species in agricultural and natural systems worldwide. Successful biocontrol agents often share a deep evolutionary history with their targets that results in high target specificity and synchronized phenology. However, with rapidly changing climatic conditions, users of biocontrol agents have questioned how climate change will affect both well-established and more recent biological control relationships. Using a meta-analysis of data collected from a systematic literature review, we evaluated the evidence for the impact of changing temperatures on the efficacy of biocontrol agents and corresponding responses in their targets. Overall, most studies of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents take place in the laboratory and focus on arthropod agents that are parasitoids. Results from our meta-analysis reveal that changes in temperature are projected to impact biocontrol agents and their targets similarly, with no overall significant changes to biocontrol agent or target performance. However, our results also show that temperature responses vary widely across study systems, as illustrated by case studies showing both positive, neutral, and negative effects of temperature on biocontrol agent efficacy, as well as variation in responses across the three core biological control measures of success: survival, reproduction, and efficacy. Our work highlights important knowledge gaps including how climate change will affect both biocontrol agents and their targets simultaneously. Additionally, we find that most current studies of climate impacts examined temperature relationships, predominantly of agricultural biocontrol agents. Increasing the breadth of studies is crucial for understanding the potential for climate change to affect the success of current and future biological control programs.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2020

Disturbance refugia within mosaics of forest fire, drought, and insect outbreaks

Disturbance refugia – locations that experience less severe or frequent disturbances than the surrounding landscape – provide a framework to highlight not only where and why these biological legacies persist as adjacent areas change but also the value of those legacies in sustaining biodiversity. Recent studies of disturbance refugia in forest ecosystems have focused primarily on fire, with a growing recognition of important applications to land management. Given the wide range of disturbance processes in forests, developing a broader understanding of disturbance refugia is important for scientists and land managers, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate the framework of disturbance refugia through the individual and interactive effects of three prominent forest disturbance agents: fire, drought, and insect outbreaks. We provide examples of disturbance refugia and related applications to natural resource management in western North America, demonstrate methods for characterizing refugia, identify research priorities, and discuss why a more comprehensive definition of disturbance refugia is relevant to conservation globally.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗