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USGS2018

Paleoclimate Records: Providing context and understanding of current Arctic change

At present, the Arctic Ocean is experiencing changes in ocean surface temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the era of satellite observations, which extend from the 1980s to the present (see sections 5c,d). To provide context for current changes, scientists turn to paleoclimate records to document and study anthropogenic influence and natural decadal and multidecadal climate variability in the Arctic system. Paleoceanographic records extend limited Arctic instrumental measurements back in time and are central to improving our understanding of climate dynamics and the predictive capability of climate models. By comparing paleoceanographic records with modern observations, scientists can place the rates and magnitudes of modern Arctic change in the context of those inferred from the geological record. Over geological time, paleoceanographic reconstructions using, for instance, marine sediment cores indicate that the Arctic has experienced huge sea ice fluctuations. These fluctuations range from nearly completely ice-free to totally ice-covered conditions. The appearance of ice-rafted debris and sea ice-dependent diatoms in Arctic marine sediments indicate that the first Arctic sea ice formed approxi-mately 47 million years ago (St. John 2008; Stickley et al. 2009; Fig. SB5.1), coincident with an interval of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, global climate cooling, and expansion of Earths cryosphere during the middle Eocene. The development of year-round (i.e., perennial) sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean, similar to conditions that exist today, is evident in sediment records as early as 1418 million years ago (Darby 2008). These records suggest that transitions in sea ice cover occur over many millennia and often vary in concert with the waxing and waning of circum-Arctic land ice sheets, ice shelves, and long-term fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Stein et al. 2012; Jakobsson et al. 2014). Over shorter time scales, shallow sediment records from Arctic Ocean continental shelves allow more detailed, higher-resolution (hundreds of years resolution) reconstructions of sea ice history extending through the Holocene (11 700 years ago to present), the most recent interglacial period. A notable feature of these records is an early Holocene sea ice minimum, corresponding to a thermal maximum (warm) period from 11 000 to 5000 years ago, when the Arctic may have been warmer and had less summertime sea ice than today (Kaufman et al. 2004). However, it is not clear that the Arctic was ice-free at any point during the Holocene (Polyak et al. 2010). High-resolution paleosea ice records from the western Arctic in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas indicate that sea ice concentrations increased through the Holocene in concert with decreasing summer solar insolation (sunlight). Sea ice extent in this region also varied in response to the volume of Pacific water delivered via the Bering Strait into the Arctic Basin (Stein et al. 2017; Polyak et al. 2016). Records from the Fram Strait (Mller et al. 2012), Laptev Sea (Hrner et al. 2016), and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (Vare et al. 2009) also indicate a similar long-term expansion of sea ice and suggest sea ice extent in these regions is modulated by the varying influx of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Basin (e.g., Werner et al. 2013). Taken together, available records support a circum-Arctic sea ice expansion during the late Holocene. A notably high-resolution summer sea ice history (<5-year resolution) has been established for the last 1450 years using a network of terrestrial records (tree ring , lake sediment, and ice core records) located around the margins of the Arctic Ocean (Kinnard et al. 2011). Results summarized in Fig. SB5.2 indicate a pronounced decline in summer sea ice extent beginning in the 20th century, with exceptionally low ice extent recorded since the mid-1990s, consistent with the satellite record (see section 5d). While several episodes of reduced and expanded sea ice extent occur in association with climate anomalies such as the Medieval Climate Warm Period (AD 8001300) and the Little Ice Age (AD 14501850), the magnitude and pace of the modern decline in sea ice is outside of the range of natural variability and unprecedented in the 1450-year reconstruction (Kinnard et al. 2011). A radiocarbon-dated driftwood record of the Ellesmere ice shelf in the Canadian High Arctic, the oldest landfast ice in the Northern Hemisphere, also demonstrates a substantial reduction in ice extents over the 20th century (England et al. 2017). A supporting sediment record indicates that inflowing Atlantic water in Fram Strait has warmed by 2C since 1900, driving break up and melt of sea ice (Spielhagen et al. 2011). Complementary mooring and satellite observations show the Atlantification of the eastern Arctic due to enhanced inflow of warm saline water through Fram Strait (Nilsen et al. 2016) and nutrient-rich Pacific water via the Bering has increased by more than 50% (Woodgate et al. 2012), further driving sea ice melt and warming seas. Similar high-resolution proxy records from Arctic regions also indicate that the modern rate of increasing annual surface air temperatures has not been observed over at least the last 2000 years (McKay and Kaufman 2014). Scientists conclude that broad-scale sea ice variations recorded in the paleo record were dominantly driven by changes in basin-scale changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, fluctuations in air temperature, strength of incoming solar radiation, and changes in the inflow of warm water via Pacific and Atlantic inflows (Polyak et al. 2010). There is general consensus that ice-free Arctic summers are likely before the end of the 21st century (e.g., Stroeve et al. 2007; Massonnet et al. 2012), while some climate model projections suggest ice-free Arctic summers as early as 2030 (Wang and Overland 2009). Paleoclimate studies and observational time series attribute the decline in sea ice extent and thickness over the last decade to both enhanced greenhouse warming and natural climate variability. While understanding the interplay of these factors is critical for future projections of Arctic sea ice and ecosystems, most observational time series records cover only a few decades. This highlights the need for additional paleoceanographic reconstructions across multiple spatial and temporal domains to better understand the drivers and implications of present and future Arctic Ocean change.

Bulletin American Meteorological Society↗

USGS2016

Evaluating alternative methods for biophysical and cultural ecosystem services hotspot mapping in natural resource planning

Context Data for biophysically modeled and Public Participatory GIS (PPGIS)-derived cultural ecosystem services have potential to identify natural resource management synergies and conflicts, but have rarely been combined. Ecosystem service hot/coldspots generated using different methods vary in their spatial extent and connectivity, with important implications. Objectives We map biophysically modeled and PPGIS-derived cultural services for six U.S. national forests using six hot/coldspot delineation methods. We evaluate the implications of hotspot methods for management within and outside of designated wilderness areas. Methods We used the ARIES and SolVES modeling tools to quantify four biophysically modeled and 11 largely cultural ecosystem services for six national forests in Colorado and Wyoming, USA. We mapped hot/coldspots using two quantile methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of values), two area-based methods (top and bottom 10 and 33 % of area), and two statistical methods (Getis-Ord Gi* at α = 0.05 and 0.10 significance level) and compare results within and outside wilderness areas. Results Delineation methods vary in their degree of conservatism for hot/coldspot extents and spatial clustering. Hotspots were more common in wilderness areas in national forests near the more densely populated Colorado Front Range, while coldspots were more common in wilderness areas in more urban-distant forests in northwest Wyoming. Conclusions Statistical hotspot methods of intermediate conservatism (i.e., Getis-Ord Gi*, α = 0.10 significance) may be most useful for ecosystem service hot/coldspot mapping to inform landscape scale planning. We also found spatially explicit evidence in support of past findings about public attitudes toward wilderness areas.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2004

Implications of hydrologic variability on the succession of plants in Great Lakes wetlands

Primary succession of plant communities directed toward a climax is not a typical occurrence in wetlands because these ecological systems are inherently dependent on hydrology, and temporal hydrologic variability often causes reversals or setbacks in succession. Wetlands of the Great Lakes provide good examples for demonstrating the implications of hydrology in driving successional processes and for illustrating potential misinterpretations of apparent successional sequences. Most Great Lakes coastal wetlands follow cyclic patterns in which emergent communities are reduced in area or eliminated by high lake levels and then regenerated from the seed bank during low lake levels. Thus, succession never proceeds for long. Wetlands also develop in ridge and swale terrains in many large embayments of the Great Lakes. These formations contain sequences of wetlands of similar origin but different age that can be several thousand years old, with older wetlands always further from the lake. Analyses of plant communities across a sequence of wetlands at the south end of Lake Michigan showed an apparent successional pattern from submersed to floating to emergent plants as water depth decreased with wetland age. However, paleoecological analyses showed that the observed vegetation changes were driven largely by disturbances associated with increased human settlement in the area. Climate-induced hydrologic changes were also shown to have greater effects on plant-community change than autogenic processes. Other terms, such as zonation, maturation, fluctuations, continuum concept, functional guilds, centrifugal organization, pulse stability, and hump-back models provide additional means of describing organization and changes in vegetation; some of them overlap with succession in describing vegetation processes in Great Lakes wetlands, but each must be used in the proper context with regard to short- and long-term hydrologic variability.

Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management↗

USGS2017

Creating high-resolution bare-earth digital elevation models (DEMs) from stereo imagery in an area of densely vegetated deciduous forest using combinations of procedures designed for lidar point cloud filtering

For areas of the world that do not have access to lidar, fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) can be photogrammetrically created using globally available high-spatial resolution stereo satellite imagery. The resultant DEM is best termed a digital surface model (DSM) because it includes heights of surface features. In densely vegetated conditions, this inclusion can limit its usefulness in applications requiring a bare-earth DEM. This study explores the use of techniques designed for filtering lidar point clouds to mitigate the elevation artifacts caused by above ground features, within the context of a case study of Prince William Forest Park, Virginia, USA. The influences of land cover and leaf-on vs. leaf-off conditions are investigated, and the accuracy of the raw photogrammetric DSM extracted from leaf-on imagery was between that of a lidar bare-earth DEM and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM. Although the filtered leaf-on photogrammetric DEM retains some artifacts of the vegetation canopy and may not be useful for some applications, filtering procedures significantly improved the accuracy of the modeled terrain. The accuracy of the DSM extracted in leaf-off conditions was comparable in most areas to the lidar bare-earth DEM and filtering procedures resulted in accuracy comparable of that to the lidar DEM.

GIScience and Remote Sensing↗

USGS2018

Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters

We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) = 0.85 and cross-validated AUC = 0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% ( n = 2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality ( n = 1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% ( n = 733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells ( n = 943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.

New York, Pennsylvania↗

USGS2021

Modeling estrogenic activity in streams throughout the Potomac and Chesapeake Bay watersheds

Endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs), specifically estrogenic endocrine-disrupting compounds, vary in concentration and composition in surface waters under the influence of different landscape sources and landcover gradients. Estrogenic activity in surface waters may lead to adverse effects in aquatic species at both individual and population levels, often observed through the presence of intersex and vitellogenin induction in male fish. In the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, located on the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA, intersex has been observed in several sub-watersheds where previous studies have identified specific landscape sources of EDCs in tandem with observed fish health effects. Previous work in the Potomac River Watershed (PRW), the largest basin within the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, was leveraged to build random forest regression models to predict estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches in both the Potomac River and larger Chesapeake Bay Watersheds (CBW). Model outputs including important variables, partial dependence plots, and predicted values of estrogenic activity at unsampled reaches provide insight into drivers of estrogenic activity at different seasons and scales. Using the US Environmental Protection Agency effects-based threshold of 1.0 ng/L 17 β-estradiol equivalents, catchments predicted to exceed this value were categorized as at risk for adverse effects from exposure to estrogenic compounds and evaluated relative to healthy watersheds and recreation access locations throughout the PRW. Results show immediate catchment scale models are more reliable than upstream models, and the best predictive variables differ by season and scale. A small percentage of healthy watersheds (< 13%) and public access sites were classified as at risk using the “Total” (annual) model in the CBW. This study is the first Potomac River Watershed assessment of estrogenic activity, providing a new foundation for future risk assessment and management design efforts, with additional context provided for the entire Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virgin↗

USGS2023

Subsurface porewater flow accelerates talik development under the Alaska Highway, Yukon: A prelude to road collapse and permafrost thaw?

The presence of taliks (perennially unfrozen zones in permafrost areas) adversely affects the thermal stability of infrastructure in cold regions, including roads. The role of heat advection on talik development and feedback on permafrost degradation has not been quantified methodically in this context. We incorporate a surface energy balance model into a coupled groundwater flow and energy transport numerical model (SUTRA-ice). The model, calibrated with long-term observations (1997–2018 on the Alaska Highway), is used to investigate and quantify the role of heat advection on talik initiation and development under a road embankment. Over the 25-year simulation period, the new model is driven by reconstructed meteorological data and has a good agreement with near surface soil temperatures. The model successfully reproduces the increasing depth to the permafrost table (mean absolute error <0.2 m), and talik development. The results demonstrate that heat advection provides an additional energy source that expedites the rate of permafrost thaw and roughly doubles the rate of permafrost table deepening, compared to purely conductive thawing. Talik initially formed and grew over time under the combined effect of water flow, snow insulation, road construction and climate warming. Talik formation creates a new thermal state under the road embankment, resulting in acceleration of underlying permafrost degradation, due to the positive feedback of heat accumulation created by trapped unfrozen water. In a changing climate, mobile water flow will play a more important role in permafrost thaw and talik development under road embankments, and is likely to significantly increase maintenance costs and reduce the long-term stability of the infrastructure.

Yukon↗

USGS2017

Unifying population and landscape ecology with spatial capture-recapture

Spatial heterogeneity in the environment induces variation in population demographic rates and dispersal patterns, which result in spatio‐temporal variation in density and gene flow. Unfortunately, applying theory to learn about the role of spatial structure on populations has been hindered by the lack of mechanistic spatial models and inability to make precise observations of population state and structure. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) represents an individual‐based analytic framework for overcoming this fundamental obstacle that has limited the utility of ecological theory. SCR methods make explicit use of spatial encounter information on individuals in order to model density and other spatial aspects of animal population structure, and they have been widely adopted in the last decade. We review the historical context and emerging developments in SCR models that enable the integration of explicit ecological hypotheses about landscape connectivity, movement, resource selection, and spatial variation in density, directly with individual encounter history data obtained by new technologies (e.g. camera trapping, non‐invasive DNA sampling). We describe ways in which SCR methods stand to advance the study of animal population ecology.

Ecography↗

USGS2014

A previously unrecognized path of early Holocene base flow and elevated discharge from Lake Minong to Lake Chippewa across eastern Upper Michigan

It has long been hypothesized that flux of fresh meltwater from glacial Lake Minong in North America's Superior Basin to the North Atlantic Ocean triggered rapid climatic shifts during the early Holocene. The spatial context of recent support for this idea demands a reevaluation of the exit point of meltwater from the Superior Basin. We used ground penetrating radar (GPR), foundation borings from six highway bridges, a GIS model of surface topography, geologic maps, U.S. Department of Agriculture–Natural Resources Conservation Service soils maps, and well logs to investigate the possible linkage of Lake Minong with Lake Chippewa in the Lake Michigan Basin across eastern Upper Michigan. GPR suggests that a connecting channel lies buried beneath the present interlake divide at Danaher. A single optical age hints that the channel aggraded to 225 m as elevated receipt of Lake Agassiz meltwater in the Superior Basin began to wane <10.6 ka. The large supply of sediment required to accommodate aggradation was immediately available at the channel's edge in the littoral shelves of abandoned Lake Algonquin and in distal parts of post-Algonquin fans. As discharge decreased further, the aggraded channel floor was quickly breached and interbasin flow to Lake Chippewa was restored. Basal radiocarbon ages on wood from small lakes along the discharge path and a GIS model of Minong's shoreline are consistent with another transgression of Minong after ca. 9.5 ka. At the peak of the latter transgression, the southeastern rim of the Superior Basin (Nadoway Drift Barrier) failed, ending Lake Minong. Upon Minong's final drop, aggradational sediments were deposited at Danaher, infilling the prior breach.

Michigan↗

USGS2009

Temporal characteristics of coherent flow structures generated over alluvial sand dunes, Mississippi River, revealed by acoustic doppler current profiling and multibeam echo sounding

This paper investigates the flow in the lee of a large sand dune located at the confluence of the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers, USA. Stationary profiles collected from an anchored boat using an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) were georeferenced with data from a real-time kinematic differential global positioning system. A multibeam echo sounder was used to map the bathymetry of the confluence and provided a morphological context for the ADCP measurements. The flow in the lee of a low-angle dune shows good correspondence with current conceptual models of flow over dunes. As expected, quadrant 2 events (upwellings of low-momentum fluid) are associated with high backscatter intensity. Turbulent events generated in the lower lee of a dune near the bed are associated with periods of vortex shedding and wake flapping. Remnant coherent structures that advect over the lower lee of the dune in the upper portion of the water column, have mostly dissipated and contribute little to turbulence intensities. The turbulent events that occupy most of the water column in the upper lee of the dune are associated with periods of wake flapping.

Missouri↗

USGS2022

Spatial social value distributions for multiple user groups in a coastal national park

Managing public lands to maximize societal benefits requires spatially explicit understanding of societal valuation, and public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS) are increasingly used in coastal settings to accomplish this task. Social Values for Ecosystem Services (SolVES), a PPGIS tool that systematizes the mapping and modeling of social values and cultural ecosystem services, is promising for use in coastal settings but has seen relatively limited applications relative to other PPGIS approaches; it has also, to our knowledge, not yet been applied in a barrier island setting. In this study, we surveyed two visitor groups and residents living near Cape Lookout National Seashore (North Carolina, USA) to understand their social values in the context of the park's management needs. We developed social-value models to evaluate differences between three user groups (fall visitors, summer visitors, and residents) and to evaluate how respondents' experiences, attitudes, and recreational activities influence the locations they value and their most strongly held value types, which included aesthetic, recreation, biodiversity, future, therapeutic, and historic values. We found that accessibility, user types and the seasonality of major recreational activities, and the linear configuration of the barrier island system at Cape Lookout are important influences on the social values held by visitors and residents. The modeling results provide information relevant to management at Cape Lookout and can inform the design of future PPGIS studies in coastal and marine settings.

North Carolina↗

USGS2020

Synthesis: A framework for predicting the dark side of ecological subsidies

In this chapter, we synthesize the state of the science regarding ecological subsidies and contaminants at the land-water interface and suggest research and management approaches for linked freshwater-terrestrial ecosystems. Specifically, we focus on movements of animals with complex life histories and the detrital inputs associated with animal and plant matter delivered to freshwaters. We present a framework based on the physicochemical parameters of contaminants and how they shape the relationship between contaminant persistence within resource subsidies (“dark side” of subsidies) and movement of resource subsidies (“bright side” of subsidies) across ecosystem boundaries. This relationship between the “dark side” and “bright side” of subsidies defines an important parameter space that allows researchers and practitioners to predict the potential impacts of aquatic contaminants on resource subsidies and their interaction with other stressors on consumers. Ecological factors such as ecosystem productivity, community composition, and consumer prey preference shape the ecotoxicological outcomes of aquatic contamination on subsidies. Landscape factors such as lithology, hydrogeomorphology, hydroperiod, and land use underlie chemical, toxicological, and ecological patterns and provide the context within which effects of contaminants play out. Finally, effects of contaminants combine with effects of other global stressors on timing, quality, and quantity of subsidies that drive responses to contaminants at the land-water interface. Understanding the “dark side” of ecological subsidies requires expertise from multiple disciplines. We attempt to synthesize current knowledge from those disciplines and generate conceptual models that ecologists can use to guide future research in understanding cross-ecosystem subsidies and contaminant fate and effects.

Book chapter↗

USGS2019

River‐valley morphology, basin size, and flow‐event magnitude interact to produce wide variation in flooding dynamics

Inundation dynamics are a key driver of ecosystem form and function in river‐valley bottoms. Inundation itself is an outcome of multi‐scalar interactions and can vary strongly within and among river reaches. As a result, establishing to what degree and how inundation dynamics vary spatially both within and among river reaches can be challenging. The objective of this study was to understand how river‐valley morphology, basin size, and flow‐event magnitude interact to affect inundation dynamics in river‐valley bottoms. We used 2D hydraulic models to simulate inundation in four river reaches from Maryland's Piedmont physiographic province, and qualitatively and quantitatively summarized within‐ and among‐reach patterns of inundation extent, duration, depth, shear stress, and wetting frequencies. On average, reaches from confined valley settings experienced less extensive flooding, shorter durations and shallower depths, stronger gradients of maximum shear stress, and relatively infrequent wetting compared to reaches from unconfined settings. These patterns were generally consistent across flow‐event magnitudes. Patterns of within‐reach flooding across event magnitudes revealed complex interactions between hydrology and surface topography. We concluded that valley morphology had a greater impact on flooding patterns than basin size: Inundation patterns were more consistent across reaches of similar morphology than similar basin size, but absolute values of inundation characteristics varied between large and small basins. Our results showed that the manifestation of out‐of‐bank flows in valley floors can vary widely depending on geomorphic context, even within a single physiographic province, which suggests that hydrologic and hydraulic conditions experienced on the valley floor may not be well represented by existing hydrologic metrics derived from discharge data alone. We thus support the notion that 2D hydraulic models can be useful hydrometric tools for cross‐scale investigations of floodplain ecosystems.

Maryland↗

USGS2023

Visualization of petroleum exploration maturity for six petroleum provinces outside the United States and Canada

Outside the United States and Canada, most of the world’s supplies of oil and natural gas are recovered from conventional (or discrete) oil and gas accumulations. This type of hydrocarbon accumulation remains a target for exploration. In this report, exploration and discovery data are used to visually assist in describing the exploration maturity of selected petroleum provinces with respect to conventional oil and natural gas accumulations. The specific provinces are the Campos Basin (Brazil), the Santos Basin (Brazil), the North Sea Graben (northwestern Europe), the Middle Magdelena Basin (Colombia), the Sirte Basin (Libya), and the Kutei Basin (Indonesia). For each province, discovery data and well data through October 2019 are reported; from these data, depth distributions of the oil in oil fields and natural gas in gas fields were computed. The concepts of delineated prospective area and explored area include elements of geographic spatial information and statistical data analytics. Graphs showing dynamic growth of discoveries that are tied to the delineated prospective area provide a means of grading prospective area. Visualizations put the results of exploration in the context of geographic and geologic features of the play or basin and can be a tool to assist geologists with the appraisal of the number and sizes of undiscovered petroleum accumulations. Visualizations of exploration drilling and discoveries can (1) assist in conceptualizing a geologic model of the basin, (2) highlight relations among discovered accumulations in different plays or assessment units within the basin, and (3) allow the geologist to identify the missing information needed to complete the geologic model of a basin. Further, if visualization attributes can be quantified, they may be used for formulating quantitative models that predict numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations. Such modeling approaches include discovery process models, Bayesian network models that characterize play or assessment unit dependencies, and innovative applications of machine learning to complement standard geologic assessments. The purpose of this report is to show how visualizations can further the understanding of exploration maturity for the six selected petroleum provinces. It also shows how the geologic framework, geologic data, and drilling and discovery trends can give context to the interpretation of the visualizations that lead to appraisal of exploration maturity.

Campos Basin, Kutei Basin, Middle Magdelena Basin,↗

USGS2019

Landscape-scale greater prairie-chicken–habitat relations and the Conservation Reserve Program

Both the abundance of greater prairie-chickens ( Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus ) and the area of grassland enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in northwestern Minnesota, USA, have recently declined. Although wildlife conservation is a stated objective of the CRP, the impact of the CRP on greater prairie-chicken populations has not been quantified. To address that information need, we evaluated the association between greater-prairie chicken lek density (leks/km 2 ), the number of males at leks (males/lek), and CRP enrollments in the context of landscape structure and composition in northwestern Minnesota. Using data from standardized prairie-chicken surveys and land cover in 17 41-km 2 survey blocks during 2004–2016, we used a mixed-effect model and a layered approach in an information-theoretic framework at multiple spatial scales to identify covariates related to prairie-chicken abundance. At the landscape scale, lek density was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and wetland, grassland and wetland with long-term conservation goals (state, federal, and The Nature Conservancy owned); other wetlands managed with variable or no continuity in conservation goals; the contiguity of grasslands; and the number of patches of grasslands and wetlands in each survey block each year. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in 41-km 2 survey blocks by 1 km 2 (2.4%) resulted in a corresponding increase of 6% in lek density. At the lek scale, the number of males per lek was best explained by the amount of CRP grassland and other grassland, CRP wetland and other wetland, forests, developed areas, shrubland, and the contiguity of CRP grassland. Increasing the amount of CRP grassland in the 2-km breeding-cycle habitat radius around a lek by 25% (3 km 2 ) corresponded to a 5% increase in males per lek. Our results suggest that both increasing the quantity of grassland CRP and wetland CRP enrollments and aggregating CRP grassland enrollments may increase greater prairie-chicken abundance.

Minnesota↗

USGS2014

In vitro immune functions in thiamine-replete and -depleted lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush )

In this study we examined the impacts of in vivo thiamine deficiency on lake trout leukocyte function measured in vitro. When compared outside the context of individual-specific thiamine concentrations no significant differences were observed in leukocyte bactericidal activity or in concanavalin A (Con A), and phytohemagglutinin-P (PHA-P) stimulated leukocyte proliferation. Placing immune functions into context with the ratio of in vivo liver thiamine monophosphate (TMP – biologically inactive form) to thiamine pyrophosphate (TPP – biologically active form) proved to be the best indicator of thiamine depletion impacts as determined using regression modeling. These observed relationships indicated differential effects on the immune measures with bactericidal activity exhibiting an inverse relationship with TMP to TPP ratios, Con A stimulated mitogenesis exhibiting a positive relationship with TMP to TPP ratios and PHA-P stimulated mitogenesis exhibiting no significant relationships. In addition, these relationships showed considerable complexity which included the consistent observation of a thiamine-replete subgroup with characteristics similar to those seen in the leukocytes from thiamine-depleted fish. When considered together, our observations indicate that lake trout leukocytes experience cell-type specific impacts as well as an altered physiologic environment when confronted with a thiamine-limited state.

Fish & Shellfish Immunology↗

USGS2022

Assessing the accuracy and potential for improvement of the national land cover database’s tree canopy cover dataset in urban areas of the conterminous United States

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD) provides time-series data characterizing the land surface for the United States, including land cover and tree canopy cover (NLCD-TC). NLCD-TC was first published for 2001, followed by versions for 2011 (released in 2016) and 2011 and 2016 (released in 2019). As the only nationwide tree canopy layer, there is value in assessing NLCD-TC accuracy, given the need for cross-city comparisons of urban forest characteristics. Accuracy assessments have only been conducted for the 2001 data and suggest substantial inaccuracies for that dataset in cities. For the most recent NLCD-TC version, we used various datasets that characterize the built environment, weather, and climate to assess their accuracy in different contexts within 27 cities. Overall, NLCD underestimates tree canopy in urban areas by 9.9% when compared to estimates derived from those high-resolution datasets. Underestimation is greater in higher-density urban areas (13.9%) than in suburban areas (11.0%) and undeveloped areas (6.4%). To evaluate how NLCD-TC error in cities could be reduced, we developed a decision tree model that uses various remotely sensed and built-environment datasets such as building footprints, urban morphology types, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and surface temperature as explanatory variables. This predictive model removes bias and improves the accuracy of NLCD-TC by about 3%. Finally, we show the potential applications of improved urban tree cover data through the examples of ecosystem accounting in Seattle, WA, and Denver, CO. The outputs of rainfall interception and urban heat mitigation models were highly sensitive to the choice of tree cover input data. Corrected data brought results closer to those from high-resolution model runs in all cases, with some variation by city, model, and ecosystem type. This suggests paths forward for improving the quality of urban environmental models that require tree canopy data as a key model input.

Remote Sensing↗

USGS2012

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Forest Ecology and Management↗